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kayik
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:41 pm

TK customer relations makes an announcement saying that anybody who had been to China, S.Korea, Iran, Italy and Iraq in the last 14 days will not be allowed to enter the country. I thought this could not be true, my wife said she listened to it on the phone when she called TK yesterday.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:49 pm

qf789 wrote:
CAN monthly data for February out

Total passengers dropped 83.57% while domestic fell 84.2%, international 81.29% and Hong Kong/Taiwan fell 90.5%

Aircraft movements fell 65.64%

https://twitter.com/FATIIIAviation/stat ... 29153?s=20


Wow, pretty significant. How does this compare with previous pandemics?
@DadCelo
 
ltbewr
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:56 pm

The Coronavirus is likely going to be the trigger event of a worldwide economic recession that will badly affect air travel and airlines for the rest of 2020 and likely into 2021. A recession, like the 2008 Great Recession/Crash would mean significant drops in business and leisure travel, shifts to more teleconferencing or just not going to meetings or conventions to save money for several years. As others have noted previously, there seems to be an off the cliff drop in current and future bookings into the early summer.

I wouldn't be surprised we see some airlines, especially those already in weak financial positions, go bankrupt, into receivership or out of business like FlyBe just did the other day. Norwegian is one that could be at risk or bankruptcy/going out of business but also some Asian airlines. We will likely see consolidation of operations, fewer flights, ending operations to certain low profit locations, some older or widebodies, including A380's retired early or put into long-term parking as market conditions will take time to recover.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:58 pm

qf789 wrote:
mcogator wrote:


They are also considering grounding the whole A388 fleet as well

https://twitter.com/WandrMe/status/1235 ... 57506?s=20


If this gets really bad, you're going to be seeing A380s grounded by the dozens.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Lufthansa is considering to ground entire A380 fleet

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:01 pm

seansasLCY wrote:
Lufthansa’s press release is here: https://newsroom.lufthansagroup.com/Eng ... f9cb53a1e2

While I don’t like to see such a reduction, it is good that Lufthansa is trying to stop any loses early on and be very flexible with the situation.


True.

An airplane on the ground is losing less money than one in the air that's operating at a loss.
 
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UPlog
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:01 pm

Sun Country Airlines trims spring and summer flights
http://www.startribune.com/sun-country- ... 568562002/


Sun Country Airlines is trimming flights starting in April as ticket sales slip over coronavirus fears.

The Twin Cities-based carrier is reducing flight frequencies from Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport to 14 airports, including several on the West Coast where the heaviest concentration of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. are located.

Beginning in April, Sun Country will operate fewer flights between MSP and Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, Phoenix, Chicago-O'Hare, Mazatlán and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. In May, Sun Country's flight capacity from MSP to Anchorage, Boston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Las Vegas, Newark and Fort Myers, Fla. will also decrease. Sun Country is also suspending three Portland routes — to and from Honolulu, Las Vegas and San Francisco — for the entire summer.
I fly your boxes
 
Ronaldo747
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Re: Lufthansa is considering to ground entire A380 fleet

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
ILNFlyer wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Just like post-9/11, the older big birds are the easiest to send off to pasture.

No mention of 747-8....interesting.

When looking at the various reviews of A380 vs 748i they all say the A380 wins when you can fill it. Well, that's the issue right now, they can't fill it. It has ~40% more seats to fill than 748i ( 509 vs 364 according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lufthansa#Current_fleet ) and empty seats deliver no revenue. Even 744 in its densest configuration is 30% less seats ( 509 vs 393 ). People seem to forget how big A380 really is, and how difficult it is to get 500+ people who all want to go from X to Y at the same time and are willing to pay enough to make the flight profitable. A380s lack of engine improvements really holds it back.

We know LH has invoked contractual rights to sell back six A380s to Airbus. This announcement does make one wonder if LH is thinking of ending the fleet sooner rather than later. 744 is vulnerable but they already plan to replace it with 777x coming as soon as Boeing can get through flight test. I'd say LH isn't ready to make up the capacity the A380s represent till 779 has fully ramped up, but it seems A380 is pretty vulnerable.


I smell accelerated retirements of 747-400, A340-300 and -600 and also MD11s though.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Lufthansa is considering to ground entire A380 fleet

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:30 pm

Ronaldo747 wrote:
I smell accelerated retirements of 747-400, A340-300 and -600 and also MD11s though.

Thing is A343/A346 and 744/748 operate as a fleet, so are somewhat less vulnerable. Yet given LH is saying it may reduce capacity by as much as 50%, everything is on the table. Boeing may not need to rush with 779 testing, the customers will probably be asking for deferments.
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Arion640
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:33 pm

musman9853 wrote:
mcogator wrote:

Absolutely insane. There's got to be something more than the virus causing this


Doubt it. My company that employs 300k worldwide has banned the vast majority of international business travel. And we aren’t the only ones.
 
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knope2001
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:41 pm

knope2001 wrote:
Some additional anecdotal info from some seatmaps within a few hours of departure today (Thursday 3/5) for US carries TATL eastbound. Seatmaps can be iffy (sometimes worse than iffy), especially further out when some people have booked but not paid for a seat assignment. But a few hours before departure they are pretty indicative of load.

Italy is brutal
AA PHL-FCO AA 33 total on an A330
UA EWR-MXP 46 total, 4 up front, 10 in the middle and 32 in the back on a 764
DL JFK-FCO 53 total, 8 up front and 45 in back on an A330

Elsewhere, as Midwestindy and others have pointed out, first/business is taking a beating. Checking around 15 UA/AA/DL flights from the Northeast
. First/Business widely 40-60% empty to continental Europe, LHR closer to normal
. Coach varies -- some flights (LHR and continent) fewer than a dozen open seats, others maybe up to 20-35% empty but other than Italy coach doesn't look as bad.

Obviously this isn't the TATL peak season and it's not like any given flight on any day should be packed. But there's a huge difference between 15-20 open seats in back and 15-20 open up front.

I guess these make sense -- close-in business travel is slashed while many leisure travelers already booked hold their (metaphorical) breath and fly anyway. I wonder if when the virus (and virus fears) are on the wane the front cabin will recover first coach will lag for many months after.


Similar anecdotal seat map information for more than a dozen UA/DL/AA TPAC flights today, mostly from the west coast, using seat maps within roughly 2 hours of departure. None of these were China proper...mostly HND, NRT, ICN, KIX, TPE

Average empty seats / average total seats by class
--30 of 39 first/business empty
--22 of 30 premium mid-tier empty (for those aircraft with that sort of class)
--133 of 212 coach empty (regular + extra legroom)

As with yesterday's TATL numbers these are just a smattering of TPAC flights from a single day from seat maps. But (probably to nobody's surprise) Pacific seems notably worse than Atlantic (out side of Italy). And with so few people up front these have to economic killers. I have to imagine a ton of work is being done to figure out how to best react to this.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:44 pm

musman9853 wrote:
mcogator wrote:

Absolutely insane. There's got to be something more than the virus causing this

Germany is at ~500 cases now with no containment in sight. Many companies are asking employees not to travel unless absolutely necessary. Large European trade fairs are being cancelled or postponed, as well as other public events. Several core markets (east Asia, Italy, Israel) are not letting visitors in, or visitors coming from there are quarantined upon arrival. This is a massive economic blow and the reduction in flying should be no surprise.
 
Raptormodeller
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Re: Lufthansa to park all A380 fleet

Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:12 pm

Luckily if this happens this should only be temporary until corona goes away. Which is in 2034 according to my crystal ball. Nah seriously this i going to be all airlines no matter how big or small, lets hope that they can brave the storm.
A380 A330 A318 A319 A320 A321 B737 B757 B767 B747 MD80 E185 E195 Q400 EF2000
AF BA QF SQ HOP LT AA BE
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:44 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
You can see the relativity theory at work already with this. No talk from any US carriers about stopping flights to Germany or France with 600 cases yet when Iran and Italy had 600 about 10 days or two weeks ago people were losing their minds. The threshold will keep going up on reactions


This is so true. I wonder what the threshold will be for the next advisory country? Over 1000 infected?
@DadCelo
 
Clackers
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:00 pm

What would happen if there was a worldwide lockdown of all flights? Who would go broke first? BA?
 
smolt
Posts: 276
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:03 pm

ANA JAPAN to reduce DOMESTIC 908 flights between 9-12 13-19 this month.

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/videonews ... 5-jnn-soci

9-12 206 already anounced + 180 newly announced
13-19 522 newly announced

20- equally reduced? less? more?

This annoucement is only for the domestics. Suspended China and Korea will be added.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 355
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:05 pm

knope2001 wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
Some additional anecdotal info from some seatmaps within a few hours of departure today (Thursday 3/5) for US carries TATL eastbound. Seatmaps can be iffy (sometimes worse than iffy), especially further out when some people have booked but not paid for a seat assignment. But a few hours before departure they are pretty indicative of load.

Italy is brutal
AA PHL-FCO AA 33 total on an A330
UA EWR-MXP 46 total, 4 up front, 10 in the middle and 32 in the back on a 764
DL JFK-FCO 53 total, 8 up front and 45 in back on an A330

Elsewhere, as Midwestindy and others have pointed out, first/business is taking a beating. Checking around 15 UA/AA/DL flights from the Northeast
. First/Business widely 40-60% empty to continental Europe, LHR closer to normal
. Coach varies -- some flights (LHR and continent) fewer than a dozen open seats, others maybe up to 20-35% empty but other than Italy coach doesn't look as bad.

Obviously this isn't the TATL peak season and it's not like any given flight on any day should be packed. But there's a huge difference between 15-20 open seats in back and 15-20 open up front.

I guess these make sense -- close-in business travel is slashed while many leisure travelers already booked hold their (metaphorical) breath and fly anyway. I wonder if when the virus (and virus fears) are on the wane the front cabin will recover first coach will lag for many months after.


Similar anecdotal seat map information for more than a dozen UA/DL/AA TPAC flights today, mostly from the west coast, using seat maps within roughly 2 hours of departure. None of these were China proper...mostly HND, NRT, ICN, KIX, TPE

Average empty seats / average total seats by class
--30 of 39 first/business empty
--22 of 30 premium mid-tier empty (for those aircraft with that sort of class)
--133 of 212 coach empty (regular + extra legroom)

As with yesterday's TATL numbers these are just a smattering of TPAC flights from a single day from seat maps. But (probably to nobody's surprise) Pacific seems notably worse than Atlantic (out side of Italy). And with so few people up front these have to economic killers. I have to imagine a ton of work is being done to figure out how to best react to this.


Seriously - why are US carriers even flying TPAC to Asia at this point? I understand it isn’t necessarily easy to just stop and park a bunch of widebodies, but I have to imagine the economic losses of flying is far greater than figuring out how to just sit idle. And that’s not even considering the risk of transporting additional infected patients into the US...
 
FCAFLYBOY
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:06 pm

Clackers wrote:
What would happen if there was a worldwide lockdown of all flights? Who would go broke first? BA?


I very much doubt that. IAG is a very profitable business, and BA has the advantage of the lucrative LHR base. Whilst they might suffer, unless we’re all wiped out mostly, London will always have strong air demand, especially for business travel.

Think of many airlines in Asia and Africa .. CX won’t be allowed to fail, most likely. TG are suffering, Air Asia too. In Europe, Norwegian, but AF/KL May suffer heavily too in my opinion and LH too.
 
727231
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:10 pm

Would think Delta will pull the MD fleet here real soon.
 
Naia
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:15 pm

In a Brazilian forum they said that Azul will cancel São Paulo/Campinas (VCP) - Porto(OPO) temporarily due to the low demand due to the coronavirus. Sad. That´s a great flight from São Paulo interior to northern Portugal
 
musman9853
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:25 pm

Arion640 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
mcogator wrote:

Absolutely insane. There's got to be something more than the virus causing this


Doubt it. My company that employs 300k worldwide has banned the vast majority of international business travel. And we aren’t the only ones.

Yeah I get it but a literal 50 percent drop? Most other airlines haven’t cut nearly as much. Maybe this is just the harbinger of what’s to come
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:31 pm

musman9853 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
musman9853 wrote:
Absolutely insane. There's got to be something more than the virus causing this


Doubt it. My company that employs 300k worldwide has banned the vast majority of international business travel. And we aren’t the only ones.

Yeah I get it but a literal 50 percent drop? Most other airlines haven’t cut nearly as much. Maybe this is just the harbinger of what’s to come


Isn’t this generally a slow time for travel though outside of the spring breakers? I’m not sure if this hit late in spring if you’d have seen as many people willing to just ax their summer vacations this easily. A lot of the travel you DO have now is just spring break and business. Summer is less business and trade shows so maybe there would have been less of a crazy downtrend then
 
SCQ83
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:41 pm

Naia wrote:
In a Brazilian forum they said that Azul will cancel São Paulo/Campinas (VCP) - Porto(OPO) temporarily due to the low demand due to the coronavirus. Sad. That´s a great flight from São Paulo interior to northern Portugal


I wouldn't call until September 2021 temporary. Very likely a definitive cancellation:

https://www.aeroin.net/azul-suspende-vo ... ipulantes/

Anyway OPO very likely will suffer more than LIS. Part of the boom of OPO was spill-over traffic from a full LIS. With Lisbon not full anymore with the COVID19 crash, carriers might focus in Portela; they will see no need to serve two airports in a minor country like Portugal. TAP might re-focus in LIS but eventually others like Emirates, Air Canada or United. OPO long-haul are thin routes and those will be the first to be chopped.
 
smolt
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:52 pm

This guy reports how vacant a Japanese Domestic flight is, date 04 this month.
The flight he reports is Haneda-Osaka, usually a busiest track with business passengers.
https://youtu.be/X6SEXPQ5QUE

Asiana to cancel all its flight to Japan. Korean Air suspends all to Haneda, and retain only one flights ICN to NARITA.
https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=2020 ... 126-jij-kr

Meanwhile, JAL is going to change type of aircraft to larger ones for flights from Korea, China, and Hongkong, so to handle rashing passsengers back to Japan short before the quarantine starts at date 9.
Also JAL is to prepare some extra flights to Korea to keep the track after 9.
Last edited by smolt on Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
acomp
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:00 pm

Singapore reports new coronavirus cases including Singapore Airlines cabin crew.
He had been in South Africa from 2/14 to 2/17 and France from 2/22 to 2/24.
He didn't go to work after suffering symptoms on 2/27 and tested positive for the virus on 3/5.
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:31 pm

PhilMcCrackin wrote:
qf789 wrote:
mcogator wrote:


They are also considering grounding the whole A388 fleet as well

https://twitter.com/WandrMe/status/1235 ... 57506?s=20


If this gets really bad, you're going to be seeing A380s grounded by the dozens.

I thought I read a story LH said they might ground the a380.
 
RvA
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:04 pm

LHG are very actively making announcements but I am not hearing much from IAG (as a group) or AFKL etc. Anyone have handy an overview total number or % of flights cancelled so far? Up to 50% for LHG shows demand in/to Europe (like in most places) is seriously down the drain.
 
RvA
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:17 pm

IATA said it took airlines about 6-7 months to reach normal booking levels again after SARS. Given what’s happening now the troubles for airlines are likely to go well into 2021 already.
I definitely fear for the industry (travel/tourism). I don’t hear much about cruise companies but they must be in the toilet too I imagine.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:39 pm

RvA wrote:
IATA said it took airlines about 6-7 months to reach normal booking levels again after SARS. Given what’s happening now the troubles for airlines are likely to go well into 2021 already.
I definitely fear for the industry (travel/tourism). I don’t hear much about cruise companies but they must be in the toilet too I imagine.


2023 would be the first year that was fully normal I think
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:57 pm

A sense a lot of these large event cancellations are due to corporate liability concerns, not so much for actually preventing the spread of COVID
 
ck8msp
Posts: 77
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:01 am

smokeybandit wrote:
A sense a lot of these large event cancellations are due to corporate liability concerns, not so much for actually preventing the spread of COVID


For some reason my post about SXSW keeps getting deleted. I am trying to gauge how much an impact something likes this has on the schedules of the major carriers. Delta runs 8-9 flights between AUS-ATL on a daily basis. Mostly on A321's....Is a cancellation like this just a blip or more impactful? These types of cancellations seem to be magnifying and are certainly going to have an impact on domestic travel where previously we seemed to be more focused on International travel.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 355
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:05 am

ck8msp wrote:
smokeybandit wrote:
A sense a lot of these large event cancellations are due to corporate liability concerns, not so much for actually preventing the spread of COVID


For some reason my post about SXSW keeps getting deleted. I am trying to gauge how much an impact something likes this has on the schedules of the major carriers. Delta runs 8-9 flights between AUS-ATL on a daily basis. Mostly on A321's....Is a cancellation like this just a blip or more impactful? These types of cancellations seem to be magnifying and are certainly going to have an impact on domestic travel where previously we seemed to be more focused on International travel.


I’ve seen all your posts and they seem aviation related - so I have no idea why they are being deleted.

Regardless - we’re now a week from event start. I doubt the airlines can make meaningful capability adjustments in such short time, especially given crew scheduling and constraints.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: Lufthansa is considering to ground entire A380 fleet

Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:22 am

Revelation wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Speculation on whether this is a temporary removal from service of A380's or a complete removal of the entire fleet from LH entirely is useless. Until Lufthansa makes the announcement as to which one it is, we can argue here at a.net until this thread has 5000 posts, but it won't tell us anything other than the fact that we're not in charge.

I'm not saying one side is right or wrong; I'm saying wait until the information is discussed by LH management.

I can say that whatever their decision is, the bean counters will calculate the LEAST efficient plane to remove (cost per pax per mile and so on), and leave the rest. Not every airport served by LH can utilize the A330 and fly to Germany - San Diego is the example where the four engine A340-300 is the perfect plane.

By your logic LH has just indicated what the least efficient plane is. The fact they are selling 6 back to Airbus shows they think they already have too many. AF has commented that they are a difficult plane to maintain. Getting rid of an entire fleet type saves a lot of money. It's pretty clear that CV has already impacted consumer decisions for the 2020 northern summer travel peak. As above I think LH will still need the remaining A380s till the 779s are here in force but if CV leads to a longer term economic recession I think A380 is the most vulnerable part of the LH fleet.


Agreed 100%. The evidence is very clear to those of us who are in the courtroom gallery, but until the jury returns with an official verdict, we'll have to wait. The preponderence of evidence is extraordinary in this case, as you pointed out. Wouldn't it be ironic if LH's 747-8's outlived the A380?
 
concordeforever
Posts: 114
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:30 am

FCAFLYBOY wrote:
Clackers wrote:
What would happen if there was a worldwide lockdown of all flights? Who would go broke first? BA?


I very much doubt that. IAG is a very profitable business, and BA has the advantage of the lucrative LHR base. Whilst they might suffer, unless we’re all wiped out mostly, London will always have strong air demand, especially for business travel.

Think of many airlines in Asia and Africa .. CX won’t be allowed to fail, most likely. TG are suffering, Air Asia too. In Europe, Norwegian, but AF/KL May suffer heavily too in my opinion and LH too.


I was told this evenings BA605 from Pisa to London Heathrow, an A320, had just 10 passengers on board...
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Lufthansa is considering to ground entire A380 fleet

Sat Mar 07, 2020 12:51 am

PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Revelation wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Speculation on whether this is a temporary removal from service of A380's or a complete removal of the entire fleet from LH entirely is useless. Until Lufthansa makes the announcement as to which one it is, we can argue here at a.net until this thread has 5000 posts, but it won't tell us anything other than the fact that we're not in charge.

I'm not saying one side is right or wrong; I'm saying wait until the information is discussed by LH management.

I can say that whatever their decision is, the bean counters will calculate the LEAST efficient plane to remove (cost per pax per mile and so on), and leave the rest. Not every airport served by LH can utilize the A330 and fly to Germany - San Diego is the example where the four engine A340-300 is the perfect plane.

By your logic LH has just indicated what the least efficient plane is. The fact they are selling 6 back to Airbus shows they think they already have too many. AF has commented that they are a difficult plane to maintain. Getting rid of an entire fleet type saves a lot of money. It's pretty clear that CV has already impacted consumer decisions for the 2020 northern summer travel peak. As above I think LH will still need the remaining A380s till the 779s are here in force but if CV leads to a longer term economic recession I think A380 is the most vulnerable part of the LH fleet.


Agreed 100%. The evidence is very clear to those of us who are in the courtroom gallery, but until the jury returns with an official verdict, we'll have to wait. The preponderence of evidence is extraordinary in this case, as you pointed out. Wouldn't it be ironic if LH's 747-8's outlived the A380?


I don't agree.
Airlines are trying to reduce capacity and it's obvious that the bigger planes will be the first to be grounded.

Even if an imaginary CASM-killer version of an A380 burned only 1% more fuel than a B787, it would make more sense to operate the B787 to carry those remaining 150 pax.
Very soon, those 150 pax will become 100 pax, at which point it makes more sense to ground the B787 rather than fly it at a loss.

It's not about efficiency or CASM, it's about conserving cash to survive.

Norwegian is already grounding B787's too.

By the way, the capital ans maintenance cost of grounding an A380 will be about the same as for grounding a B77W and only 20% more than a B787.
So the burden of major groundings will be as big on an airline with 50 A380's as it will be for an airline with 60 B787's.

By the way, at this point, it's most likely that a majority of long haul flights are already operating at a loss. A380 operators will pull the plug sooner and start conserving cash, making deals with lessors to suspend lease payments for stored aircraft, while small widebody operators will try to peddle on and end up burning through precious cash and face lessors at a later stage when they will already have given out all the leeway they have.
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:04 am

For all the talk about massive demand reductions and panicking airlines, I haven't seen the huge deals as of yet like those that were available after 9/11. No nothing BOS-SFO for $50 or BOS-LAX in F for $200.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:10 am

An April flight I'm tracking dropped $175 after the virus started to gain traction stateside, but it has since gone back up
 
AA747123
Posts: 281
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:19 am

I am beginning to think the effects of this will be much worse than 9/11. Anyone who thinks airlines will get through this without massive layoffs and financial losses is in a dream land. I would expect bankruptcies for some of the US majors.
 
flight152
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:28 am

AA747123 wrote:
I am beginning to think the effects of this will be much worse than 9/11. Anyone who thinks airlines will get through this without massive layoffs and financial losses is in a dream land. I would expect bankruptcies for some of the US majors.


You’re not being dramatic at all...
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:29 am

AA747123 wrote:
I am beginning to think the effects of this will be much worse than 9/11. Anyone who thinks airlines will get through this without massive layoffs and financial losses is in a dream land. I would expect bankruptcies for some of the US majors.


Depends how long it goes. If it’s only one year I highly doubt it. If they struggle to get a vaccine and it goes for 2-3 years then probably. I can’t see how one bad year would cause an airline to declare chapter 11, even AA which some here have boldly claimed
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:45 am

AA747123 wrote:
I am beginning to think the effects of this will be much worse than 9/11. Anyone who thinks airlines will get through this without massive layoffs and financial losses is in a dream land. I would expect bankruptcies for some of the US majors.



If things keep going this way, I think that it will depend on how airlines adapt.
Airlines can be helpless bystanders or be part of the solution and be compensated royally for it.

Some suggestions that I posted earlier:

Airlines in the heavily hit area's should start considering offering their assets to combat this crisis.

-Aircraft assets:
Aircraft are perfect as isolation facilities, clinical environment control can be achieved. It will be safer for medical professionals too and will reduce secondary infections.
Aircraft cabins typical suck air back out at floor level on the sidewalls, so this strongly reduces the amount of infectious air cycling around the mouth and nose level.
Remove seats and start installing walls to build compartments. It' s faster than building pseudo-hospitals wherein construction workers are exposed to possible infections and the roofs are leaking, no compartments are present.
Remaining aircraft used as charters, flying ambulances to move patients around to provincial facilities with capacity.
Hundreds, thousands of aircraft grounded = a lot of capacity.

-People assets:
Train voluntary cabin and flight crew to perform basic care duties in support of shorthanded nurses and doctors.

-Catering facilities: obviously, provide meals to the aircraft used as isolation facilities.

-Infrastructures:
Maintenance buildings: Use as area's for disinfection of crews returning from aircraft, general laundry and logistics, support base for the crews working the aircraft. They are huge, so they are convenient and allow to reduce close contact.
HQ's operate as the brains of the whole operation. Organise charter flights to move patients around to facilities where capacity is available.


What's in it for the airlines? Quicker crisis resolution and they can get paid big money by the governments plus marketing impact.




Maintenance crews are also used to walking around in Hazmat suits. The paint shops would typically use them a lot, but also when working in fuel tanks.
I remember crawling out of those things all wet from the sweat.
 
Thunderbolt500
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:03 am

AA747123 wrote:
I am beginning to think the effects of this will be much worse than 9/11. Anyone who thinks airlines will get through this without massive layoffs and financial losses is in a dream land. I would expect bankruptcies for some of the US majors.
which one I guess maybe AA.
 
aden23
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:07 am

Can anyone comment on why airlines aren't discounting tickets, even though demand is extraordinarily low?

For example, Newark to Milan on United is going for $5000+ business class right now, but today's flight only had 30 pax.

What's the advantage to keeping prices so high when demand is at a record low?
 
joeblow10
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:11 am

aden23 wrote:
Can anyone comment on why airlines aren't discounting tickets, even though demand is extraordinarily low?

For example, Newark to Milan on United is going for $5000+ business class right now, but today's flight only had 30 pax.

What's the advantage to keeping prices so high when demand is at a record low?


RM in play. Do you discount it so much as to sell higher volume, or keep the prices up and rely on fewer, high paying customers to buy?

RM theory is heavily influenced by expected value. If you have a 90% chance of selling a seat for $500 or a 10% chance of selling a seat for $5000, the latter mathematically results in a higher expected result.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:15 am

joeblow10 wrote:
aden23 wrote:
Can anyone comment on why airlines aren't discounting tickets, even though demand is extraordinarily low?

For example, Newark to Milan on United is going for $5000+ business class right now, but today's flight only had 30 pax.

What's the advantage to keeping prices so high when demand is at a record low?


RM in play. Do you discount it so much as to sell higher volume, or keep the prices up and rely on fewer, high paying customers to buy?

RM theory is heavily influenced by expected value. If you have a 90% chance of selling a seat for $500 or a 10% chance of selling a seat for $5000, the latter mathematically results in a higher expected result.


Easy to make that case with hand-picked numbers.
It will be completely different with 90% change at $500 and 5% chance at $5000.
 
mcogator
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:20 am

My flight on Monday according to seat map:

AF BOM- CDG 26/28 J occupied
AF CDG- LAX 52/80 J occupied

I did just switch my seat to the cluster of empty seats in the back of the A388, so as of now, there isnt anyone next to me, in front of me, or behind me...according to the seat map.
“Traveling – it leaves you speechless, then turns you into a storyteller.” – Ibn Battuta
 
smartplane
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Re: Lufthansa is considering to ground entire A380 fleet

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:24 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
PSAatSAN4Ever wrote:
Revelation wrote:
By your logic LH has just indicated what the least efficient plane is. The fact they are selling 6 back to Airbus shows they think they already have too many. AF has commented that they are a difficult plane to maintain. Getting rid of an entire fleet type saves a lot of money. It's pretty clear that CV has already impacted consumer decisions for the 2020 northern summer travel peak. As above I think LH will still need the remaining A380s till the 779s are here in force but if CV leads to a longer term economic recession I think A380 is the most vulnerable part of the LH fleet.


Agreed 100%. The evidence is very clear to those of us who are in the courtroom gallery, but until the jury returns with an official verdict, we'll have to wait. The preponderence of evidence is extraordinary in this case, as you pointed out. Wouldn't it be ironic if LH's 747-8's outlived the A380?


I don't agree.
Airlines are trying to reduce capacity and it's obvious that the bigger planes will be the first to be grounded.

Even if an imaginary CASM-killer version of an A380 burned only 1% more fuel than a B787, it would make more sense to operate the B787 to carry those remaining 150 pax.
Very soon, those 150 pax will become 100 pax, at which point it makes more sense to ground the B787 rather than fly it at a loss.

It's not about efficiency or CASM, it's about conserving cash to survive.

Norwegian is already grounding B787's too.

By the way, the capital ans maintenance cost of grounding an A380 will be about the same as for grounding a B77W and only 20% more than a B787.
So the burden of major groundings will be as big on an airline with 50 A380's as it will be for an airline with 60 B787's.

By the way, at this point, it's most likely that a majority of long haul flights are already operating at a loss. A380 operators will pull the plug sooner and start conserving cash, making deals with lessors to suspend lease payments for stored aircraft, while small widebody operators will try to peddle on and end up burning through precious cash and face lessors at a later stage when they will already have given out all the leeway they have.

Lessors, financiers, air frame and engine OEM's are more proactive than you give credit. Discussions, mainly via the old fashioned phone, rather than face to face, are in full swing. The poor devils running the numbers and making the calls, can work nearly 24 hours a day, thanks to customers in every time zone.

The less proactive and skilled in such issues, are smaller financiers / lessors, and those in the used end of the market, who may be at as much risk as their customers. There are always a few big fish willing and able to take them out of the game for the right money.
 
joeblow10
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:27 am

Dieuwer wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
aden23 wrote:
Can anyone comment on why airlines aren't discounting tickets, even though demand is extraordinarily low?

For example, Newark to Milan on United is going for $5000+ business class right now, but today's flight only had 30 pax.

What's the advantage to keeping prices so high when demand is at a record low?


RM in play. Do you discount it so much as to sell higher volume, or keep the prices up and rely on fewer, high paying customers to buy?

RM theory is heavily influenced by expected value. If you have a 90% chance of selling a seat for $500 or a 10% chance of selling a seat for $5000, the latter mathematically results in a higher expected result.


Easy to make that case with hand-picked numbers.
It will be completely different with 90% change at $500 and 5% chance at $5000.


Sorry for trying to provide a simple example with “hand picked numbers” but this is the basis for much of how RM software functions.

Obviously the user can override or influence demand to an extent, but certain pricing restrictions (advance purchase requirements) also limit the ability to simply control price thru inventory.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:32 am

joeblow10 wrote:
aden23 wrote:
Can anyone comment on why airlines aren't discounting tickets, even though demand is extraordinarily low?

For example, Newark to Milan on United is going for $5000+ business class right now, but today's flight only had 30 pax.

What's the advantage to keeping prices so high when demand is at a record low?


RM in play. Do you discount it so much as to sell higher volume, or keep the prices up and rely on fewer, high paying customers to buy?

RM theory is heavily influenced by expected value. If you have a 90% chance of selling a seat for $500 or a 10% chance of selling a seat for $5000, the latter mathematically results in a higher expected result.


They are discounting, maybe not to every destination, but it is certainly happening:

I have booked all these on American for Mid-March in the past few days: IND-CLT-YYZ($75), ORD-LAX ($118 r/t), ORD-FLL ($55 r/t)

Some crazy prices I have seen today:
TAP March 17th JFK-LIS-LGW one way for $119
IB March 30th BOS-BCN one way nonstop for $100
AA/AS March 24th LAX-SJC/LAS one way main cabin for $20
AA March 10th CLT-PHL/FLL/EWR/MCO/DCA one way for $20

I could go on, but you get the point
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:35 am

joeblow10 wrote:
Dieuwer wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:

RM in play. Do you discount it so much as to sell higher volume, or keep the prices up and rely on fewer, high paying customers to buy?

RM theory is heavily influenced by expected value. If you have a 90% chance of selling a seat for $500 or a 10% chance of selling a seat for $5000, the latter mathematically results in a higher expected result.


Easy to make that case with hand-picked numbers.
It will be completely different with 90% change at $500 and 5% chance at $5000.


Sorry for trying to provide a simple example with “hand picked numbers” but this is the basis for much of how RM software functions.

Obviously the user can override or influence demand to an extent, but certain pricing restrictions (advance purchase requirements) also limit the ability to simply control price thru inventory.


Restrictions can be lifted (manually). However, I think the major issue is that RM software is programmed for stable, “normal” circumstances and cannot handle Black Swans like the Coronavirus well.
Perhaps RM sees the current situation as something as a brief “hiccup” that will be over shortly. The real problems will start of course as the current mess last much much longer.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:47 am

For those that still don't believe in how dangerous this is for the airline industry:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lufth ... latestnews

"Chief Executive Carsten Spohr told employees that the situation has “dramatically worsened” since the airline’s last update a week before. The airline saw almost as many cancellations as new bookings on Thursday," he said.

The company is in talks with the German government and the EU about concessions for the industry to help reduce the burden from the virus on carriers, he said.
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