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PHLCVGAMTK
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:39 am

aden23 wrote:
Can anyone comment on why airlines aren't discounting tickets, even though demand is extraordinarily low?

For example, Newark to Milan on United is going for $5000+ business class right now, but today's flight only had 30 pax.

What's the advantage to keeping prices so high when demand is at a record low?


At this point, there are so many travel warnings and restrictions for MXP, that anyone still flying there in J is clearly someone who is very motivated to go there, so they aren't going to be dissuaded by a high ticket price, nor will many additional passengers be found who would fly for less. This is not the sort of call that can be made algorithmically, but it is sound logic.
 
MRYapproach
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:22 am

I had an SFO-TPE trip booked in February, but I pushed it out to April. The way things are going, I see no difference between California and Taiwan. Being trapped in an aluminum tube for 13 hours with random people doesn't sound like fun, but in Premium Economy I'm not too worried. At some point, those of us who have to travel to Asia for work, we'll restart. Especially if things in the USA get almost as bad as Asia outside of China/Korea/Japan. It's a big planet, full of nasty bugs. Quit crying everybody.
 
oschkosch
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:56 am

The BBC has an interesting opinion. And I agree, there will be many more airline collapses in the coming weeks and months.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51748139

The failure of Europe's biggest regional airline Flybe could be the start of more casualties, analysts predict. On Thursday, a global airline industry body warned the financial hit from coronavirus could reach $113bn (£87bn) this year.

The bleak prediction came on the same day UK-based Flybe went into administration. Airline experts are forecasting more failures as passengers cancel flights. Flybe's collapse "will likely be the first of many in 2020," said James Goodall, transport analyst at Redburn.

"We expect that the demand destruction caused by Covid-19 accelerated its demise and we believe further airline bankruptcies should be expected in the coming months." Airlines could lose $63bn to $113bn in revenue from the slump in passenger traffic globally this year, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said on Thursday. Last month, it had predicted losses of $29bn.

Demand has plummeted, not just from holidaymakers, but from corporate travel as firms restrict business trips for employees and conferences are postponed. "There will be a significant increase in airline casualties in this scenario," said Michael Duff, managing director at The Airline Analyst.
:stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
 
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scbriml
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:15 am

oschkosch wrote:
The BBC has an interesting opinion. And I agree, there will be many more airline collapses in the coming weeks and months.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51748139

The failure of Europe's biggest regional airline Flybe could be the start of more casualties, analysts predict. On Thursday, a global airline industry body warned the financial hit from coronavirus could reach $113bn (£87bn) this year.


Flybe was already in serious trouble. Coronavirus just helped to push it over the edge.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
FB330
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:34 am

Interesting comment on people will eventually start to travel again if they have to. This isn’t about Asia now, rather the world. So, I feel I now have to go to China, what’s to say China will not allow visitors from the UK or France or the US or any other place where rates are growing? This isn’t about our choice anymore, it is down to where people will allow us in...
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:02 am

FB330 wrote:
Interesting comment on people will eventually start to travel again if they have to. This isn’t about Asia now, rather the world. So, I feel I now have to go to China, what’s to say China will not allow visitors from the UK or France or the US or any other place where rates are growing? This isn’t about our choice anymore, it is down to where people will allow us in...

Chinese tourists were infected in Italy and were detected when they returned home so we’ve begun to play coronavirus/COVID-19 ping-pong now, complicating things further. On another note, the cancellation of SXSW, which is like the Oktoberfest of technology and entertainment in the US, will have a very significant economic impact on multiple fronts.
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anstar
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:08 am

yeah I think FLybe was going to go bust even before the Corona hysteria.
 
o0OOO0oChris
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:38 am

I think the coronavirus will have a long lasting impact on aviation. Companies just got aware that planning for something like this has to be part of a sustainable business plan. And it may be even change the way business operates and giving home office concepts and teleconferences the edge.

Or how Elon Musk put it:
https://twitter.com/BoredElonMusk/status/1235962895717957632
That conclusion you’ve come to about the fundamental ways our work and businesses will be changed post-Covid19 is not novel. Everyone has known for quite some time that remote work is completely doable for non-manufacturing jobs, and that most conferences are just boondoggles.

This crisis will change a lot.

And I would not be surprised is the business travel demand will not recover to the levels before the crisis.

It`s not just the airline industry suffering, there are major drops in revenue in most of other industries to come. I think the worst is yet to come for Dow&co. The next quaterly results will be hard to shallow.

China has a >80% drop in car sales, and that`s where carmakers worldwide have been selling a lot of cars. Musk is just downplaying Coronavirus, and probably suffering hard as his just finished Giga factory shanghai needs chinese orders to pay back the debt for it. Orders that probably won't be coming for a while in reasonable amount.

The good thing is that most countries take this seriously and working hard to slow the spread. If the northern summer starts early, that will help to get a corona-break. Sun, UV and heat is not something that virusses like. As you can see if you look at the hot aquatorial countries in africa and australia where the virus has a hard time to get a foot into.

That makes me wonder if those could get a prefered holiday destination? Like "Take break from Coronavirus, come to corona-defeating africa!"?

I think this experience clearly makes the flexible-low capital-exposure narrowbody-longhaul concept the way to go in the future. The unflexible Emirates concept should suffer the most.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:27 pm

Please ensure that comments stay on topic. I also highly recommend against users providing their personal opinions when it comes to discussing medical and safety aspects of this virus — the spread of misinformation can be equally as dangerous in situations like this.

✈️ atcsundevil
 
Delta332
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:33 pm

The summer travel peak is without a doubt going to be affected. So what happens now? Do the US carriers potentially have an upper hand on picking up the travelers who are going to travel with the decline from European carriers like Lufthansa. I have a flight to Europe next week...my flight over (so far) is full. Coming back is empty almost. My return flight is on an European carrier
 
TW870
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:44 pm

Any anecdotal info on what passenger loads look like on US domestic flights? I see lots of posts upthread showing excessively light loads on US-Asia and US-Europe. But what about within the US? I have a couple of trips coming up in the next couple of weeks, and I am wondering if I am going to be on empty airplanes. Right now seat maps showing full, but I know that is not an accurate indication.

The issue in the US right now is the botched roll-out of testing. People are presenting in clinics and hospitals with symptoms, and in many cases they are not able to test them and sending them home. This drastically slows down the effort to slow the virus. See this, for example:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/heal ... virus.html

The biggest issue for the airlines that I see, though, is whether or not there is going to be effective prophylaxis by the fall. If the illness becomes treatable, I think people are much more likely to fly and return to normal.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:47 pm

TW870 wrote:
Any anecdotal info on what passenger loads look like on US domestic flights? I see lots of posts upthread showing excessively light loads on US-Asia and US-Europe. But what about within the US? I have a couple of trips coming up in the next couple of weeks, and I am wondering if I am going to be on empty airplanes. Right now seat maps showing full, but I know that is not an accurate indication.

The issue in the US right now is the botched roll-out of testing. People are presenting in clinics and hospitals with symptoms, and in many cases they are not able to test them and sending them home. This drastically slows down the effort to slow the virus. See this, for example:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/heal ... virus.html

The biggest issue for the airlines that I see, though, is whether or not there is going to be effective prophylaxis by the fall. If the illness becomes treatable, I think people are much more likely to fly and return to normal.

We are entering US spring break so I imagine load factors will be relatively high domestically, but probably not as high as they would have been. But certainly an increase over the last several weeks.
 
LNCS0930
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:04 pm

TW870 wrote:
Any anecdotal info on what passenger loads look like on US domestic flights? I see lots of posts upthread showing excessively light loads on US-Asia and US-Europe. But what about within the US? I have a couple of trips coming up in the next couple of weeks, and I am wondering if I am going to be on empty airplanes. Right now seat maps showing full, but I know that is not an accurate indication.

The issue in the US right now is the botched roll-out of testing. People are presenting in clinics and hospitals with symptoms, and in many cases they are not able to test them and sending them home. This drastically slows down the effort to slow the virus. See this, for example:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/heal ... virus.html

The biggest issue for the airlines that I see, though, is whether or not there is going to be effective prophylaxis by the fall. If the illness becomes treatable, I think people are much more likely to fly and return to normal.


I’ve heard average for the majors is 35-55% currently domestically. The best case by fall is they find an antiviral treatment that works on this but I’m not optimistic on that. Obviously there’s a chance too this infects more people subclinically than we realize which would slow this down faster too as it ran out of people to infect
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:18 pm

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... arch-2020/

CX is suspending ALL flights to Taiwan and Japan beginning Mar 13 until end of March earliest.

This basically mean CX is stopping all flights to NE Asia, as they suspend all South Korean flights already.
 
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downtown273
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:41 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
CX is suspending ALL flights to Taiwan and Japan beginning Mar 13 until end of March earliest.


Looks like CX is keeping a single daily flight HKG-TPE on a B777, instead of the usual 17-18 daily mainly widebody flights in each direction by CX.

That's a 94% reduction of capacity.
 
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seahawk
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:07 pm

And it will have a lasting effect. Companies moving to do conferences online and getting used to that, will not quickly go back to flying around even after the epidemic. Airlines in Europe would not be entering the time of the year when money is made, loads are good and a reserve for the coming winter is earned. This is not happening with booking down by 50%. In the same line tour operators are seeing a serious reduction in booked holidays, cruise lines are practically dead when it comes to bookings. Which means it will hit the whole tourism industry and many players won´t survive. Which again will see the demand be reduced after crisis.

And imagine a China style quarantine more or less all over the globe. Factories sitting idle, people making no money, money for travel will be reduced for quite some time.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:14 pm

o0OOO0oChris wrote:
I think the coronavirus will have a long lasting impact on aviation. Companies just got aware that planning for something like this has to be part of a sustainable business plan. And it may be even change the way business operates and giving home office concepts and teleconferences the edge.

Or how Elon Musk put it:
https://twitter.com/BoredElonMusk/status/1235962895717957632
That conclusion you’ve come to about the fundamental ways our work and businesses will be changed post-Covid19 is not novel. Everyone has known for quite some time that remote work is completely doable for non-manufacturing jobs, and that most conferences are just boondoggles.

This crisis will change a lot.

And I would not be surprised is the business travel demand will not recover to the levels before the crisis.


It depends on how many people will be forced to work from home due to the current circumstances and how many of those find out that working from home works actually very well.
Still, people prefer to meet face-to-face in many situations so demand for travel will always exist.
 
BAINY3
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:33 pm

I have four (personal/leisure) Southwest trips booked in the next five months. Two in April, and one each in June and August. I booked all of these less than a month ago but the fares have dropped quite a bit since the virus panic has impacted the industry. Yesterday I took advantage of WN's no change fees to "rebook" to the lower fares. MSP-OAK-BUR in April dropped from $159 to $126. I swapped my BUR-PHX $93 flight to a LAX-PHX $69 flight. Even my two MSP-MDW trips in June and August, respectively, each dropped from $74 to $69 each.

Out of the publicly-traded US pax airlines, WN's share price has suffered the least thus far but is still only about 78% of its peak, and they are still slashing fares all over the place. I got $67 in fare credits yesterday just by swapping for these lower fares.
 
Dieuwer
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:35 pm

BAINY3 wrote:
I have four (personal/leisure) Southwest trips booked in the next five months. Two in April, and one each in June and August. I booked all of these less than a month ago but the fares have dropped quite a bit since the virus panic has impacted the industry. Yesterday I took advantage of WN's no change fees to "rebook" to the lower fares. MSP-OAK-BUR in April dropped from $159 to $126. I swapped my BUR-PHX $93 flight to a LAX-PHX $69 flight. Even my two MSP-MDW trips in June and August, respectively, each dropped from $74 to $69 each.

Out of the publicly-traded US pax airlines, WN's share price has suffered the least thus far but is still only about 78% of its peak, and they are still slashing fares all over the place. I got $67 in fare credits yesterday just by swapping for these lower fares.


Those MAX cancellation suddenly work in their favor ;)
 
Ishrion
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:45 pm

Which airlines have grounded their A380 fleet or part of it so far?

It looks like all of China Southern's A380s haven't been flying for a while.

Did this Emirates A380 just get stored? https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a6-edx

I'm assuming this one's grounded? https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/a6-edz
 
SCQ83
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:04 pm

Moscow has stablished a relatively similar system to Israel:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20S2LM

A document posted on the Moscow mayor’s website said that Russians who return from China, South Korea, Iran, France, Germany, Italy and Spain and other states who display possible “unfavorable” signs of coronavirus should self-isolate themselves at home for 14 days.


I wonder if that will mean Air France, Alitalia, British Airways or Lufthansa stopping flights to Russia over the next few days. Aeroflot will likely be able to cover the collapsing demand.
 
Aliqiout
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:16 pm

Where are all these empty flights? I have been on 7 flights the last week and all were almost completely full. I have 6 more scheduled for this month (2 transatlantic) and only one has mom middle back of the plan seats left open.

0.2% fatality for younger people is higher than the flue, but if you filtered that for health problems it would be much lower. The risk isn't catching it yourself, it is transmitting it to higher risk groups.
 
Eurowingsa320
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:47 pm

Boeing have cancelled there tours between March 6-26 due to corona virus
 
SCQ83
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:56 pm

RvA wrote:
LHG are very actively making announcements but I am not hearing much from IAG (as a group) or AFKL etc. Anyone have handy an overview total number or % of flights cancelled so far? Up to 50% for LHG shows demand in/to Europe (like in most places) is seriously down the drain.


IAG will not want to have their stock hit by "50% flights cancelled". OTOH even Vueling is cancelling quite a few domestic flights in Spain and I even had a cancelled (then moved to another flight) domestic Iberia flight for two weeks from now (which I am not flying).

Another impact of this crisis is that the "spoke & hub" model is completely messed up. With 50% of flights cancelled, how many connections are now "broken" for Lufthansa?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:53 pm

Milan airports will probably close as of today, as the region of Lombardy will be locked down, no entry or exit will be permitted.

https://www.corriere.it/politica/20_mar ... 6fc4.shtml
 
bennett123
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:59 pm

If the Milan Airports are closed, how much of AZ would have to be grounded?.
 
factsonly
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:33 pm

Unprecedented......

Cathay Pacific halts all air services between HKG - Japan and HKG - Taiwan between 12-31 March 2020.

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... arch-2020/
 
alasizon
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 9:50 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
TW870 wrote:
Any anecdotal info on what passenger loads look like on US domestic flights? I see lots of posts upthread showing excessively light loads on US-Asia and US-Europe. But what about within the US? I have a couple of trips coming up in the next couple of weeks, and I am wondering if I am going to be on empty airplanes. Right now seat maps showing full, but I know that is not an accurate indication.


I’ve heard average for the majors is 35-55% currently domestically. The best case by fall is they find an antiviral treatment that works on this but I’m not optimistic on that. Obviously there’s a chance too this infects more people subclinically than we realize which would slow this down faster too as it ran out of people to infect


I can tell you that 35-55% is not true system wide. Systemwide the stats I'm seeing at 70-85% depending on the day which includes the TATL and TPAC flights.

I think the drop in traffic has been very east-centric within the US as LFs still look good and strong throughout the west.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:48 pm

Find below the regions that will be locked down.

Airports of MXP, LIN, BGY, VCE,TFS and other regional airports may be affected.

A quarter of the Italian population will be affected.

Image

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_mar ... 6fc4.shtml
Last edited by Waterbomber2 on Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
downdata
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:50 pm

If this goes on for a few more months which looks like it will then half the airlines in the world are going to shutdown.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:57 pm

Southwest CEO says the drop in bookings feels similar to 9/11

https://theweek.com/speedreads/900284/s ... 1like-feel
 
jayunited
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:50 pm

CobaltScar wrote:
Southwest CEO says the drop in bookings feels similar to 9/11

https://theweek.com/speedreads/900284/s ... 1like-feel



This is exactly what UA executives told us today, when looking at April bookings they haven't seen future bookings this low since 9/11. People are just canceling their travel plans at an alarming rate, even domestically the cancellations are mounting, as they put it April will be worse than March. They also stated that thus far May and June does not look nearly as bad as April but that could just be because people are waiting to see how things play out in the next few weeks which is why UA's plan is to adjust capacity on a monthly basis. But April is going to be an extremely challenging month for UA and for all airlines this is why UA has removed 10% from the domestic market and 20% internationally.
 
tphuang
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sat Mar 07, 2020 11:52 pm

I find it interesting that united has been the most active at taking actions that imo would be construed as preserving cash. Even more aggressive than aa. I get the feeling this crisis has hit united the hardest in terms of margins. We will see.
 
joeblow10
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:00 am

tphuang wrote:
I find it interesting that united has been the most active at taking actions that imo would be construed as preserving cash. Even more aggressive than aa. I get the feeling this crisis has hit united the hardest in terms of margins. We will see.


It could be, but I’m guessing DL/AA are simply dragging their feet more than UA here in terms of capacity adjustment. I’m sure enilria’s update tomorrow will have some adjustments, especially from UA, but I’m guessing next week or the following will be the first week where we start seeing across the board reductions by everybody.

With Spring Break now going on and continuing for the next 2-3 weeks, the LFs probably aren’t too abysmal domestically, but post spring break is likely where things are falling off a cliff, and as somebody else mentioned, why April is going to be really rough
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:56 am

I think like most crisis, once the public gets tired of hearing about it (which anecdotally it feels like) the panic will subside and things will get back to normal, or at least begin a rebound. Asian and European markets will suffer a bit longer but I think US domestic travel will rebound as soon as this leaves the news cycle.
 
Brucekn
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:03 am

I think if the airlines could lessen the cost penalty of flexibility and refundable flights, this could make people less wary of making travel bookings. I was planning on flying internationally in June, and just today looking at flights- a refundable flight costs over twice that of non-flexible, which I’m not about to pay. I don’t believe any of us can project what the situation will look like in June, it’s hard to even think about the end of this month.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:05 am

Brucekn wrote:
I think if the airlines could lessen the cost penalty of flexibility and refundable flights, this could make people less wary of making travel bookings. I was planning on flying internationally in June, and just today looking at flights- a refundable flight costs over twice that of non-flexible, which I’m not about to pay. I don’t believe any of us can project what the situation will look like in June, it’s hard to even think about the end of this month.


United did exactly that.
 
716131
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:07 am

Sun Country is now following others in reducing flights

https://simpleflying.com/sun-country-fl ... ronavirus/
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
Brucekn
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:10 am

United did exactly that.[/quote]

Refundable? Or re-schedule?
 
Pi7472000
Posts: 217
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:17 am

jetmatt777 wrote:
I think like most crisis, once the public gets tired of hearing about it (which anecdotally it feels like) the panic will subside and things will get back to normal, or at least begin a rebound. Asian and European markets will suffer a bit longer but I think US domestic travel will rebound as soon as this leaves the news cycle.



That also depends on the economic effects of COVID19. If the U.S. ends up in a 2008 style recession travel will not bounce back as disposable income for travel will drop and business travel will be cut back. We may be suffering the economic effects of this for much longer than a news cycle.
 
716131
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:19 am

Malindo Air now offer employees to take cut by 50% and 2 weeks unpaid leave due to coronavirus.

https://simpleflying.com/malindo-air-pay-cut/
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
BAINY3
Posts: 225
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:19 am

BAINY3 wrote:
I have four (personal/leisure) Southwest trips booked in the next five months. Two in April, and one each in June and August. I booked all of these less than a month ago but the fares have dropped quite a bit since the virus panic has impacted the industry. Yesterday I took advantage of WN's no change fees to "rebook" to the lower fares. MSP-OAK-BUR in April dropped from $159 to $126. I swapped my BUR-PHX $93 flight to a LAX-PHX $69 flight. Even my two MSP-MDW trips in June and August, respectively, each dropped from $74 to $69 each.

Out of the publicly-traded US pax airlines, WN's share price has suffered the least thus far but is still only about 78% of its peak, and they are still slashing fares all over the place. I got $67 in fare credits yesterday just by swapping for these lower fares.

So I checked again and just since yesterday these dropped even more!
MSP to LA-area for April 4 dropped again from $126 to just $91 (albeit I had to swap MSP-OAK-BUR to MSP-DEN-LGB to get that). LA-area to PHX for April 6 dropped from $69 to $49 just since yesterday--ironically I am back on my original BUR-PHX flight. And even looking forward to June, MSP to MDW for June 6 dropped $69 to $49 since just yesterday as well for the same flight. Only my August MSP-MDW flight has remained the same price since yesterday.

Note some of these have even cheaper options available, usually very early in the morning or very late at night, but those don't work for my schedule. But my point being for all of this is that WN is slashing fares for less than a month out and doing so quickly and in short succession. I wonder what the loads will be like.
 
etops1
Posts: 853
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2005 12:26 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:51 am

Why is UA still operating EWR-MXP?
 
jayunited
Posts: 3024
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:18 am

tphuang wrote:
I find it interesting that united has been the most active at taking actions that imo would be construed as preserving cash. Even more aggressive than aa. I get the feeling this crisis has hit united the hardest in terms of margins. We will see.


You could be correct that UA has been hit harder in terms of margins but at the same time it could be something else. I get the sense UA wants to be in front of this not one or two steps behind. By announcing the 10% reduction in domestic travel for April this early and by releasing the revised schedule it each division the necessary time to adjust their work force numbers through voluntary leave of absence. UA has a high percentage of union workers as does AA (which is surprising that AA hasn't announced anything) however a lot of UA's contracts read a lot different than they did during the bankruptcy years. From what I've heard and I'm seeing ever since Munoz and Kirby announced the voluntary leave (and it is flexible employees don't have to take 6 months they can take a week, two weeks a month) there has been and still is a lot of employees interested in participating in the program. Having the schedule this early lets the manpower schedulers for all the departments know how many employees they need to run the airline and how many employees they can offer voluntary leave. Right now nothing has been announced for May in terms of domestic reductions but the longer UA waits to amend the schedule the more damage (if that is the right word) UA inflicts on itself because we don't have the necessary time to respond in a way that saves UA money.

The spike in cases in Seattle spoked a lot of people. Prior to Seattle our leaders were telling us domestic demand remains strong, and really for February and most of March domestic demand remained strong. But after Seattle future bookings for late March but especially all of April begin tanking as people reschedule or out right canceled their travel plans.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5089
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:20 am

davidjohnson6 wrote:
KlimaBXsst wrote:
ULCC travel will become very watch worthy.


Can you explain what you mean and why you think this is the case ? Not trying to agree or disagree - I just don't understand what you're trying to communicate

I would think he means cabin density with regard to seat Pitch. though it might not be of a concern unless the person beside you has the virus. Cleaning of the airplane cabins between flights might be of some concern but disinfectant wipes might be of help to those concerned. Just like they might be at home.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 5089
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:25 am

FB330 wrote:
Interesting comment on people will eventually start to travel again if they have to. This isn’t about Asia now, rather the world. So, I feel I now have to go to China, what’s to say China will not allow visitors from the UK or France or the US or any other place where rates are growing? This isn’t about our choice anymore, it is down to where people will allow us in...

Business Travel will be impacted but I doubt business will be as business travel will not stop. Even the Chinese need to do global Business.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8483
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:32 am

Brucekn wrote:
United did exactly that.


Refundable? Or re-schedule?[/quote]

Any flight cancelled means a refund is available by DOT rules, so long as you have a U.S. origin or destination. So does making a non-stop direct, or a direct booking to a connection. DOT also provides for refund with unreasonable change to arrival or departure time although carriers define this variably. Use this to get your money back, not push out travel and risking stranding your money.
 
KD5MDK
Posts: 832
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2013 4:05 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:40 am

strfyr51 wrote:
FB330 wrote:
Interesting comment on people will eventually start to travel again if they have to. This isn’t about Asia now, rather the world. So, I feel I now have to go to China, what’s to say China will not allow visitors from the UK or France or the US or any other place where rates are growing? This isn’t about our choice anymore, it is down to where people will allow us in...

Business Travel will be impacted but I doubt business will be as business travel will not stop. Even the Chinese need to do global Business.

I’m not sure how to read this but it’s possible businesses decide they don’t need as much total travel anymore as they used to do and it’s a permanent reduction in the industry.
 
alasizon
Posts: 2624
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:52 am

jetmatt777 wrote:
I think like most crisis, once the public gets tired of hearing about it (which anecdotally it feels like) the panic will subside and things will get back to normal, or at least begin a rebound. Asian and European markets will suffer a bit longer but I think US domestic travel will rebound as soon as this leaves the news cycle.


Agreed. People are already tired of hearing about it. Bookings in April will be weak across business markets but if things start to turn around (think reduced # of deaths, stories of recoveries, etc.) it is certainly feasible for them to pick back up by the last week of April/early May.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
fly4ever78
Posts: 79
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2017 10:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:13 am

TW870 wrote:
Any anecdotal info on what passenger loads look like on US domestic flights? I see lots of posts upthread showing excessively light loads on US-Asia and US-Europe. But what about within the US? I have a couple of trips coming up in the next couple of weeks, and I am wondering if I am going to be on empty airplanes. Right now seat maps showing full, but I know that is not an accurate indication.

The issue in the US right now is the botched roll-out of testing. People are presenting in clinics and hospitals with symptoms, and in many cases they are not able to test them and sending them home. This drastically slows down the effort to slow the virus. See this, for example:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/heal ... virus.html

The biggest issue for the airlines that I see, though, is whether or not there is going to be effective prophylaxis by the fall. If the illness becomes treatable, I think people are much more likely to fly and return to normal.


I just operated 8 domestic (North America) flights in the last 4 days and all but one of them was totally full and the airports were jam packed with people.

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