Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

behramjee · Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:10 pm

Spring break season is now going on so perhaps until Easter period (19Apr), DL can use some of the freed up wide bodies on high demand routes to Florida, Mexico, California, LAS and the Caribbean where it makes commercial sense.

In addition, the JFK-LAX, JFK-SFO multiple daily shuttle service can be reduced a bit and in turn some popular timing flights upgraded to a wide body aircraft.

MIflyer12 · Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:21 pm

behramjee wrote:
Spring break season is now going on so perhaps until Easter period (19Apr), DL can use some of the freed up wide bodies on high demand routes to Florida, Mexico, California, LAS and the Caribbean where it makes commercial sense.

In addition, the JFK-LAX, JFK-SFO multiple daily shuttle service can be reduced a bit and in turn some popular timing flights upgraded to a wide body aircraft.

They might do some of that (to keep pilots working at minimums, and to get regular use from frames) but the press release refers to cutting domestic capacity 10-15%, not just shifting it around.

https://news.delta.com/delta-actions-ad ... t-covid-19

GRJGeorge · Tue Mar 10, 2020 5:59 pm

SAA A340-600 is leaving JNB tonight to Wuhan via Manila to repatriate South Africans.
Might very well be one of SAA's last A346 missions

Aisak · Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:06 pm

Spanish Government is banning all commercial flights FROM Italy TO Spain from this midnight.
While technically airlines could fly FROM Spain TO Italy but return empty as a positioning flight, I’ll bet they will just cancel all flights altogether

ltbewr · Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:21 pm

It isn't just airlines but also the governments, authorities or corporate entities that operate airports who will also see huge losses in fees that could lead to serious financial problems if this virus continues for more than a few weeks.I am quite sure that has hit China and South Korea airports, as well as now Italy badly. Many in airport and vendors workers will be laid off so no paychecks. It may be difficult to get assistance from governments as they too will be overwhelmed with lost revenues and huge costs for medical care and other costs.

gatibosgru · Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:34 pm

I'm shocked AZ hasn't cancelled my CDG-FCO flight yet.

asdf · Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:58 pm

ltbewr wrote:
... could lead to serious financial problems if this virus continues for more than a few weeks.....

i don't want to appear unpolite or rude
but would you mind to google the term "pandemic" ...

we are only a few days away from the world recognize that "financial problems" are the smallest problems we will have

MartijnNL · Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:00 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
Welp guess I'm just gonna lose thousands on my Italy trip. But I have other's to think about and can't risk them getting sick even if I ~*think*~ I'll be fine. I'm sad that AZ is offering me nothing but it is what it is.

Alitalia is offering nothing? That's pretty sad indeed. KLM is offering zero change fees on all flights, already for some time now. You can also postpone your travel by as much as one year.

alexdelzotto · Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:08 pm

Just announced Air Canada is suspending FCO service as of today.

Last flight AC890 YYZ-FCO and will return tomorrow as AC893 FCO-YUL

Suspended until May 1st

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavir ... -1.4847019

lavalampluva · Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:35 pm

This will be the worst year for airlines since 9/11. Maybe even worse. International travel will be hit hardest.

eta unknown · Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:38 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
Alitalia is not offering anything for those who booked before March.

https://www.alitalia.com/en_en/fly-alit ... ights.html
https://www.alitalia.com/it_it/volare-a ... -voli.html

Are you sure you are interpreting the AZ policy correctly? I interpret the incorrectly translated word "within" to actually mean "before".

smokeybandit · Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:47 pm

Their policy is still pretty strict. You have to change your departure date to a date before June 30.

Things may well have calmed down by then, but surely things won't be back to normal

afcjets · Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:50 pm

Fewer hubs and focus cities. I think PDX is the only hub that will be cut, but it's not a true hub, just a marketing term.

eta unknown · Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:05 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
Their policy is still pretty strict. You have to change your departure date to a date before June 30.

Things may well have calmed down by then, but surely things won't be back to normal

In that case I'd open a credit card insurance claim if that's how the tickets were paid for and the new dates aren't acceptable.

tphuang · Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:09 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Alaska shockingly isn't planning to materially cut capacity in April

Alaska believes the way to go is offering $80 O/W transcon/HI tickets. What a joke.

jetmatt777 wrote:
The 3rd point of the Demand section from AS is why we won't see US airlines laying people off in mass.

With cheap oil they can break even on a much lower fare. If they can stimulate demand enough to keep the wheels turning they won't have to resort to furloughs. Furloughs are expensive in the short term and are a last resort option for long term issues (greater than 6 months)

Depend who you are, airlines like legacies, especially AA, have the highest fixed cost and benefit the lease from lower fuel cost.
Airlines like NK have the lowest fixed cost and benefit the most from lower fuel cost.
Which is why it's surprising NK cut growth and AS has not.

gatibosgru · Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:14 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
gatibosgru wrote:
Welp guess I'm just gonna lose thousands on my Italy trip. But I have other's to think about and can't risk them getting sick even if I ~*think*~ I'll be fine. I'm sad that AZ is offering me nothing but it is what it is.

Alitalia is offering nothing? That's pretty sad indeed. KLM is offering zero change fees on all flights, already for some time now. You can also postpone your travel by as much as one year.

eta unknown wrote:
gatibosgru wrote:
Alitalia is not offering anything for those who booked before March.

https://www.alitalia.com/en_en/fly-alit ... ights.html
https://www.alitalia.com/it_it/volare-a ... -voli.html

Are you sure you are interpreting the AZ policy correctly? I interpret the incorrectly translated word "within" to actually mean "before".

The message in English is now gone, but the one in Italian when translated still doesn't help me as my flight is on March 17th

"in possession of tickets purchased by February 22, 2020 , with travel dates between February 23 and March 8, 2020"

I'm still waiting to see if EasyJet cancels my FCO-ORY flight, but so far both still confirmed.

malioil · Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:17 pm

The Ministry of Health of the Kingdom of Bahrain has chartered a Salam Air A320 to bring the first batch of 1,500 citizens stranded in the Islamic Republic of Iran, of which with the Kingdom has no diplomatic relations.

No idea about route, if the aircraft stopped in Oman or entered Omani airspace before preceding to the Kingdom.

Article below available at present in Arabic only.

https://bna.bh/.aspx?cms=q8FmFJgiscL2fw ... hFzRJCk%3d

MAH4546 · Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

AA adding ORD flying over the summer isn't related, as AA's summer changes were related to MAX changes & extending their schedule for the summer.

It is absolutely related. AA literally announced today it is adding ORDHNL service because of the virus and free’d up planes. Nothing to do with MAX and summer extensions.

Haven’t seen anything to suggest that from AA

But, Im patiently waiting for your response to why you think AS wont need to cut any capacity, regardless of nearly every airline cutting capacity. Which is the original point.

It was literally in a press release from AA released this morning. The route was added over the weekend.

I never once said AS wont cut capacity. Never. I said they aren’t as exposed.

Airlines will react appropriately. And once people realize it’s literally the flu, things will calm down, at least domestically. International I think won’t recover for a bit.

seat1a · Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:22 pm

Is all of this impacting Hawaiian Airlines? Any thoughts?

YULACYYZ · Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:26 pm

Last Air Canada flight 890 tonight to FCO for awhile

1 in J out of 30
0 in PE out of 21
28 in Y out of 247

Hopefully there is some cargo to help pay for gas!

eta unknown · Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:28 pm

"The message in English is now gone, but the one in Italian when translated still doesn't help me as my flight is on March 17th"
The English message is still there. Check international or US site in English. Top of page (Cov19 info green banner)

EA CO AS · Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:41 pm

tphuang wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Alaska shockingly isn't planning to materially cut capacity in April

Alaska believes the way to go is offering $80 O/W transcon/HI tickets. What a joke.

What's a joke about it if it works? Unpredictable stuff like this is exactly why AS has been conservative with their balance sheet and keeps an economic moat of low debt and low costs, as they can weather storms like this far better than other carriers who aren't as insulated.

curlyheadboy · Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:05 pm

Hi all, I know this may not add much to the discussion but I would like to take this opportunity to thank Singapore Airlines for how they handled my situation as their customer.

I purchased a round trip MXP-SIN-MNL for April 25. After the flight on MXP has been cancelled they proceeded to immediately rebook me via Frankfurt, and after that became also not an option they offered me a full refund, or an open ticket for any other practicable date of my choice during the next 12 months, no money or questions asked. No waits on the phone, no delays in responses, and all options immediately offered to me with no bias.
I acknowledge I purchased a business class ticket and possibly I got a premium customer treatment, nevertheless I was truly impressed by the level of service and responsiveness under circumstances that I imagine are not easy for their business as well as mine. I will no doubt remember this experience with them every time I will hopefully travel to Asia again in the future.

alasizon · Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:26 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
SimonDanger wrote:
SouthWest sent an email this morning with this:

We want you to feel confident when traveling with Southwest Airlines. As a result, we have enhanced some of our cleaning procedures in the interest of our Customers' and Employees' health and safety.

Aircraft Cleaning: We spend between 6-7 hours cleaning each aircraft every night, and, as of March 4, 2020, we have enhanced our overnight cleaning procedures. Typically, we use an EPA approved, hospital-grade disinfectant in the lavatories and an interior cleaner in the cabin. Now, we are expanding the use of the hospital-grade disinfectant throughout the aircraft, and it will be used in the cabin, on elements in the flight deck, and in the lavatory. This goes beyond the standard CDC guidelines.

Also, we equip each of our aircraft with a HEPA (High Efficiency Particulate Air) filter, which filters out recirculated air onboard each plane to remove airborne particles. HEPA filters are also used in hospitals to provide patients with clean air.

No airline spends 6-7 hours a night cleaning planes. That is a disingenuous statement because they may spend 6 man hours. (I would even call that a stretch) because a cleaning crew for a narrowbody is typically about 6 people and they are usually done in about 15 minutes. That's 1.5 man hours. I've never seen any airline use more than 6 people or take longer than 15-20 minutes for a RON clean.

A good true RON clean should take about 40-45 minutes for a team of 6 on a narrowbody and a team of 4 on an RJ; that assumes you clean the inside/outside of overhead bins, ceiling, emergency lights/tape strips, all the seats, armrests, tray tables, windows and sidewalls plus the galley, lavs, and cockpit fully.

dcajet · Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:13 pm

So far, deep South America had been spared any service cuts - until today, that is. 3 routes being suspended or reduced by American:

* JFK-GRU goes from daily to 5x w between 14/4 and 6/5
* DFW-SCL suspended between 14/4 and 6/5
* MIA-MVD suspended from 7/5 until 17/12 (yes, December Must have been a very poor performing route before Covid-19).

dampfnudel · Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:19 pm

seat1a wrote:
Is all of this impacting Hawaiian Airlines? Any thoughts?

https://mauinow.com/2020/03/09/hawaiian ... -covid-19/

TW870 · Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:02 am

asdf wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
... could lead to serious financial problems if this virus continues for more than a few weeks.....

i don't want to appear unpolite or rude
but would you mind to google the term "pandemic" ...

we are only a few days away from the world recognize that "financial problems" are the smallest problems we will have

I think the thrust of your point is right. The airlines - and all of us - have to think medically first, as that is the key to solving this problem. If we can slow the spread drastically until there is prophylaxis and then a vaccine, it will be much easier to recover. The disease has been very deadly in Italy, and it appears worse than in China, with north of a 5% mortality rate. The goal is to stop that fast of a spread with that high of a mortality rate in other countries.

My hunch is that there will be a much steeper drop-off in travel, including in US domestic travel. But that short term hit will be good in the long term, because it will slow down the disease.

In my business we are planning on an hourly basis. We have a public plan right now, but my guess is that we will cut much more deeply in the next few days (I am a university professor). Again, although we are not a medical business, we are trying to think about this medically so we can protect our own people, slow down the epidemic, and then get back to normal as quickly as possible.

For the airline folks, I went through the last black swan on 9/11 and SARS as a UA flight attendant. Hang in there, and think long term. To meet this challenge, there is probably going to have to be a major, major interruption. But if we do it right, we will get ramped back up in the medium term.

Fly safe.

Midwestindy · Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:01 am

MAH4546 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

It is absolutely related. AA literally announced today it is adding ORDHNL service because of the virus and free’d up planes. Nothing to do with MAX and summer extensions.

Haven’t seen anything to suggest that from AA

But, Im patiently waiting for your response to why you think AS wont need to cut any capacity, regardless of nearly every airline cutting capacity. Which is the original point.

It was literally in a press release from AA released this morning. The route was added over the weekend.

I never once said AS wont cut capacity. Never. I said they aren’t as exposed.

Airlines will react appropriately. And once people realize it’s literally the flu, things will calm down, at least domestically. International I think won’t recover for a bit.

Not sure why my original response was deleted, but:

1. ORD-HNL is not a new route, they are extending service on a seasonal route. Furthermore, AA did not say that in their press release, they said: "Widebody aircraft will be redeployed on key domestic routes in American’s network. American will also introduce new seasonal service between ORD and Honolulu (HNL) this summer on a Boeing 787-9."
1a. No where does it say they are using freed up aircraft to add/extend routes
1b. If you are familiar with network planning you would know that adding a new route is a lengthy process, and adding/extending a route (let alone a widebody one) is not a knee-jerk reaction made in the span of a week.
1c. They just decided on Monday which widebody route cuts they would extend through the summer, and ORD-HNL was loaded on Saturday, and even looking past that this route was planning on being extended regardless of the Virus & the add coincides with the extension of their summer schedule.

2. Yet airlines less exposed than them (NK, B6, SY, e.t.c) have all announced capacity cuts,

3. "Airlines will react appropriately," Scott Kirby said it well today, when he said that airlines who aren't taking this seriously now, should expect significant issues down the line..... When nearly every other major US carrier is significantly cutting back capacity, and AS is not, and AS is in one of the hardest hit areas of the country, that should be a sign they aren't reacting appropriately.

4. It is not "literally the flu"

EA CO AS · Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:36 am

Midwestindy wrote:
"Airlines will react appropriately," Scott Kirby said it well today, when he said that airlines who aren't taking this seriously now, should expect significant issues down the line..... When nearly every other major US carrier is significantly cutting back capacity, and AS is not, and AS is in one of the hardest hit areas of the country, that should be a sign they aren't reacting appropriately.

What's "appropriate" to one carrier may not be to another. Fact of the matter is that AS has consistently maintained a low-cost structure, coupled with an extremely strong balance sheet, specifically to be able to weather storms like these while others, who aren't as well insulated against these sort of shocks, retrench.

AS will do whatever they feel is appropriate for them, but do keep in mind that just because some carriers decide to cut 10-15% capacity or more doesn't mean all will.

Eugenewats · Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:32 am

Quick glance at United.com for the EWR-FCO flight tonight shows 27 seats occupied (1 in Polaris 26 in economy) - thats around 11% load factor. Why keep flying this?

jetmatt777 · Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:12 am

Eugenewats wrote:
Quick glance at United.com for the EWR-FCO flight tonight shows 27 seats occupied (1 in Polaris 26 in economy) - thats around 11% load factor. Why keep flying this?

The return flight is oversold.

knope2001 · Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:27 am

knope2001 wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
More anecdotal loads, this time on select Delta (mostly) large RJ departures out of LGA on Monday 3/9. These are from seat maps less than 24 hours before departure so know that actual loads will likely vary a bit. But they give an idea of what a Monday out of LGA looks like

53.7%.....average for these 21 markets

70.6% ….. jax
68.4% ….. grr
64.9% ….. chs
60.8% ….. mke
60.5% ….. mem
60.0% ….. cle
59.6% ….. msn
58.8% ….. sdf
58.2% ….. mci
56.7% ….. rdu
56.1% ….. bhm
54.4% ….. gsp
52.5% ….. cmh
52.3% ….. buf
51.4% ….. bna
49.3% ….. gso
47.5% ….. ind
46.1% ….. stl
45.9% ….. pit
45.3% ….. ric
44.7% ….. clt

LF based on seatmaps for Tuesday 3/10 on those same departing Delta LGA large-RJ routes are more what I feared. About 1/4 of all departures look to be booked to about 25% or less. Again, these are seat maps under 24 hours before departure so there will likey be a little "play" between what I see today and tomorrow's actual loads. But in general it looks like planes are averaging not much better than 2/3 empty tomorrow, Tuesday 3/10.

34.9%.....average for these 21 markets (raw load, not weighted by distance)

72.8% ….. jax --- probably benefits from spring break demand this time of year
49.6% ….. chs
43.4% ….. sdf
42.5% ….. grr
41.3% ….. mci
39.5% ….. gsp
38.4% ….. stl
35.8% ….. mke
34.7% ….. bna
34.3% ….. cmh
34.2% ….. msn
33.9% ….. rdu
33.8% ….. mem
33.2% ….. gso
29.9% ….. buf
29.2% ….. ind
28.9% ….. cle
28.3% ….. bhm
28.1% ….. clt
26.6% ….. pit
26.4% ….. ric

Here's Wednesday 3/11 -- same deal, DL LGA departing seatmap counts (expressed as load factor) less than 24 hours before departure.

39.2%.....average for these 21 markets (raw load, not weighted by distance)

80.3% ….. chs
78.5% ….. jax
51.3% ….. gsp
48.2% ….. mke
45.5% ….. cle
45.2% ….. grr
43.7% ….. mem
43.7% ….. mci
43.6% ….. rdu
41.7% ….. sdf
40.5% ….. cmh
39.2% ….. msn
38.2% ….. bna
37.9% ….. gso
37.4% ….. ind
33.9% ….. buf
28.9% ….. bhm
27.2% ….. clt
24.1% ….. ric
23.4% ….. pit
22.8% ….. stl

ww0985 · Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:05 am

knope2001 wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
More anecdotal loads, this time on select Delta (mostly) large RJ departures out of LGA on Monday 3/9. These are from seat maps less than 24 hours before departure so know that actual loads will likely vary a bit. But they give an idea of what a Monday out of LGA looks like

53.7%.....average for these 21 markets

70.6% ….. jax
68.4% ….. grr
64.9% ….. chs
60.8% ….. mke
60.5% ….. mem
60.0% ….. cle
59.6% ….. msn
58.8% ….. sdf
58.2% ….. mci
56.7% ….. rdu
56.1% ….. bhm
54.4% ….. gsp
52.5% ….. cmh
52.3% ….. buf
51.4% ….. bna
49.3% ….. gso
47.5% ….. ind
46.1% ….. stl
45.9% ….. pit
45.3% ….. ric
44.7% ….. clt

LF based on seatmaps for Tuesday 3/10 on those same departing Delta LGA large-RJ routes are more what I feared. About 1/4 of all departures look to be booked to about 25% or less. Again, these are seat maps under 24 hours before departure so there will likey be a little "play" between what I see today and tomorrow's actual loads. But in general it looks like planes are averaging not much better than 2/3 empty tomorrow, Tuesday 3/10.

34.9%.....average for these 21 markets (raw load, not weighted by distance)

72.8% ….. jax --- probably benefits from spring break demand this time of year
49.6% ….. chs
43.4% ….. sdf
42.5% ….. grr
41.3% ….. mci
39.5% ….. gsp
38.4% ….. stl
35.8% ….. mke
34.7% ….. bna
34.3% ….. cmh
34.2% ….. msn
33.9% ….. rdu
33.8% ….. mem
33.2% ….. gso
29.9% ….. buf
29.2% ….. ind
28.9% ….. cle
28.3% ….. bhm
28.1% ….. clt
26.6% ….. pit
26.4% ….. ric

Here's Wednesday 3/11 -- same deal, DL LGA departing seatmap counts (expressed as load factor) less than 24 hours before departure.

39.2%.....average for these 21 markets (raw load, not weighted by distance)

80.3% ….. chs
78.5% ….. jax
51.3% ….. gsp
48.2% ….. mke
45.5% ….. cle
45.2% ….. grr
43.7% ….. mem
43.7% ….. mci
43.6% ….. rdu
41.7% ….. sdf
40.5% ….. cmh
39.2% ….. msn
38.2% ….. bna
37.9% ….. gso
37.4% ….. ind
33.9% ….. buf
28.9% ….. bhm
27.2% ….. clt
24.1% ….. ric
23.4% ….. pit
22.8% ….. stl

JAX is probably benefitting mostly due to the Players Championship this week

LAXintl · Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:35 am

View onboard UA EWR-SFO 787 flight on Tuesday. Reportedly only 16 passengers in economy

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESyD2BrU8AA ... name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESyD2BqU8AE ... name=large

mercure1 · Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:39 am

Airfreight rates have tripled out of Asia to US markets due lack of capacity.

39% of the markets capacity has been lost due passenger flight cuts.

Air freight rates skyrocket amid passenger flight cuts
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN20Y062

Probably get even worse in coming weeks as Chinese factories spool up further creating bigger logistics backlog.

Ishrion · Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:41 am

LAXintl wrote:
View onboard UA EWR-SFO 787 flight on Tuesday. Reportedly only 16 passengers in economy

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESyD2BrU8AA ... name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESyD2BqU8AE ... name=large

Except J was nearly full.

https://twitter.com/AirlineFlyer/status ... 9675923456

zeke · Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:42 am

Hkg has placed additional travel restrictions on people arriving from Italy, France, Germany, and Japan as the number of infected cases increase. This is on top of the restrictions from mainland China and Korea.

Source : front page of today’s SCMP

On a positive note CX announced today a 2019 profit of 1.6 billion. 2020 will be a very challenging year.

UPlog · Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:45 am

Ishrion wrote:
Except J was nearly full.

With premier upgrades !

What terrible loads. UA cant cut capacity fast enough.

KBUF · Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:59 am

Three TSA officers at SJC have tested positive: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-n ... BlogHeader

Derico · Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:10 am

This is obviously worse than 9/11, not even debatable. 9/11 was mainly one country, and into that country. This is becoming all countries, to all countries, and within all countries.

PSU.DTW.SCE · Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:12 am

The aviation industry is going to be a mess for the next 12-24 months because of this.......

Atlwarrior · Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:23 am

I would like to see a breakdown of how many daily flights are actually being cut from ATL, ORD, DFW, and LAX

FluidFlow · Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:29 am

Quarterly and annual reports this year will be as interesting and shocking like in the years 2001-2010. A lot of uuuhhhs and aaahhhs and and many many pants full of... „fear“.

The Corona virus is hitting the airline industry like Mike Tyson his opponents in his best days. Who will survive? Who will be gone? Hard to say but there will be a lot of space for new entrants into the aviation market with a lot of second hand aircraft available. It is gonna be an interesting time ahead for every one interested in aviation.

RvA · Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:59 am

I hope all airline employees sent or asked to go on unpaid leave can count on support. In Europe it’s already happening and salaries are covered at around 80% in certain cases (can’t speak for all). If this goes on for a while it will bring relief to the company (not limited to airlines) without devastating the employees.

MartijnNL · Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:19 am

FluidFlow wrote:
Hard to say but there will be a lot of space for new entrants into the aviation market with a lot of second hand aircraft available.

How would these new entrants build a profitable future for themselves? Why would I book with them instead of legacy airlines? How long would they even last?

tphuang · Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:41 am

EA CO AS wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
"Airlines will react appropriately," Scott Kirby said it well today, when he said that airlines who aren't taking this seriously now, should expect significant issues down the line..... When nearly every other major US carrier is significantly cutting back capacity, and AS is not, and AS is in one of the hardest hit areas of the country, that should be a sign they aren't reacting appropriately.

What's "appropriate" to one carrier may not be to another. Fact of the matter is that AS has consistently maintained a low-cost structure, coupled with an extremely strong balance sheet, specifically to be able to weather storms like these while others, who aren't as well insulated against these sort of shocks, retrench.

AS will do whatever they feel is appropriate for them, but do keep in mind that just because some carriers decide to cut 10-15% capacity or more doesn't mean all will.

AS does not have lowest cost structure. It's in the same ballpark as WN and B6. And much higher than NK. WN is already down from MAX problem. B6/NK are both down 5% in capacity. Thus far, AS response has been to advertise $99 fares to HI from all of its major stations and to advertise $89 on all the transcons. And getting price matched. Transcon and HI represent 40 to 50% of AS's capacity. And those long flight are the most affected by this.

And keep in mind that it's going from a projected 4% gain in RASM for Jan/Feb to up to 5% loss when March included overall. So coronavirus has been close to a 9 point hit on its RASM for just this quarter. Which is actually right along what HA and legacy carriers have reported in their guidance and higher than the 5 point hit that WN reported in its guidance. And the reason for that is SEA is in the news as the epicenter of this virus in USA. And SFO/LAX are not far behind that. And unlike other large cities, SEA/SFO aren't going to get much warmer in the summer time, so you can't hope the virus will go away when the weather hits 85 degrees F.

Think about this way. Let's say we roll around to some time in May, NYC/Chicago/DC/Boston/Philly all hit 80+ consistently and virus dies down. SEA and SFO are still stuck in the 60s. The big tech firms tell their employees to continue to work from home, because that's easy to do. Big firms are afraid to send their employees to SEA/SFO because virus is still going on here. What's AS's plan?

c933103 · Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:16 am

Cathay said their February capacity have been reduced by ~30% and the reduction will be furthered in March and April to reach ~65%. Number of flights will be reduced by 65% and 75% respectively. Yet koad factor is still just about 50% and the yield have alsi been significantly suppressed.
As for freight, it's said that the demand have been weakened partially due to trade war and also due to Chinese factories yet to fully recover their production in the short term. However the drop in number of flights due to mass cancellation caused the supply reduction outpaced demand reduction and resulted in double digit yield increase. But they would need to increase the capacity to stabilize the market.
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/ ... 200311.htm

Tuan · Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:59 am

I predict Vietnam will stop all air traffic with Europe shortly. The damage to Vietnam economy will be huge, but at this stage, so will everyone. Just a matter of time.

MIflyer12 · Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:30 am

Atlwarrior wrote:
I would like to see a breakdown of how many daily flights are actually being cut from ATL, ORD, DFW, and LAX

I might expect that when carriers talk about capacity reductions they're really talking about seats (or ASMs), not flights. I would like to see that breakdown, too, but suppose it will take an industry comment source (Leeham, etc.) or a private party with an aviation database subscription. At this point I accept that DL has said it's cutting domestic capacity (the expanded way they define domestic) 10-15%, and they mean it.

jayunited · Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:42 am

LAXintl wrote:
View onboard UA EWR-SFO 787 flight on Tuesday. Reportedly only 16 passengers in economy

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESyD2BrU8AA ... name=large

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESyD2BqU8AE ... name=large

That is not correct at all UA on Tueday March 10th had three 787s operating on our EWR-SFO routes
UA583-10 78X 92 passengers in coach
UA741-10 78X 64 passengers in coach
UA2006-10 789 67 passengers in coach

While all of these numbers are absolutely terrible they all had more than 16 people in coach.

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