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SimonDanger
Posts: 83
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:33 am

LNCS0930 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Right now, Spain is about 4 or 5 days from Italy scenario (basically not having enough doctors/hospital beds to serve those who need it)
France is about a week away.
America really depends. If you think things are hysterical now, just wait another week in America and let's say we are at 2000 cases in Seattle, NY and Cali. That's when people are going to start calling for not letting people go out. Things haven't hit the bottom for the airlines yet.
Be prepared for more cuts. AS isn't going to be spared. WN neither.

WN maybe in the best position to weather this out if it was not for the fact they do fuel hedging.

I think good chance someone will merge with HA and someone will merge with NK before this is over.


I think for a time in April we may see all INT flights by AA/UAL/DL suspended, minus maybe Canada/Mexico/Carib...so probably all trans ocean will stop. I don't think it will be for long but maybe a month at some point from April into May


Pretty prescient in light of President Trump locking down all flights from Europe (sans the UK) for 30 days just now. (Looks like I'm slow on the uptake, apologies.)
Last edited by SimonDanger on Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
musman9853
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Re: TRUMP CANCELS ALL EUROPE TRAVEL FROM US EXCEPT FOR UK

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:33 am

jetblueguy22 wrote:
Pretty much speechless. Does this cover cargo as well? This can be economically disastrous


Yes all cargo is also banned. Which doesn't really make sense since the virus isn't really transmitted through fomites?
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:34 am

casinterest wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:
casinterest wrote:


Friday Midnight is the deadline


Well, that's in 2.5 hours.
Midnight of a day is 0:00, as there is no 24:00.


Today is Wednesday/


You are right, my bad.

So it will be in 26.5 hours.
So just enough for another cycle of TATL flights and then flights will be shut down.
Perhaps even the European operators will make another cycle on Thursday and then shut it down.

I had a flight planned to SFO at the end of the month, I guess that I'm going to send an email to my OTA.
Still, I understand, Europe with the exception of Italy didn't close their borders to China and is now seeing outbreaks all over the place, most being blamed on people returning from Italy but who knows, that's probably a mere excuse for the other countries. How did it get to Italy anyway when they shut down their flights to/from China?

While my own travel plans are going to be cancelled, these are exceptional times and I fully understand Pres. Trump's decision.
 
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BA744PHX
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Re: TRUMP CANCELS ALL EUROPE TRAVEL FROM US EXCEPT FOR UK

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:34 am

musman9853 wrote:
jetblueguy22 wrote:
Pretty much speechless. Does this cover cargo as well? This can be economically disastrous


Yes all cargo is also banned. Which doesn't really make sense since the virus isn't really transmitted through fomites?


It's not the cargo, its the employees flying the cargo, I assume thats what its for
 
COEWR787
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:35 am

This is getting darned serious. I just read that India is pretty much banning most travel from US to India, except for Indian citizens. Even Overseas Citizens of India Card holders are banned until April 15th.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:35 am

alexdelzotto wrote:
I wonder if Air Canada could profit from this.

Does the ban count if a pax does DCA-YUL-CDG?


I would assume so.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:36 am

I have a friend in Dublin right now, does she have to hop on a flight tomorrow morning or can she wait till Friday?
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:37 am

Adipocere wrote:
So what’s the recommended workaround for Europeans - fly/ drive/ train into U.K. and then fly to the US or fly into Canada and the cross land borders into the US?


If the UK want to maintain their privileged status of being excluded from the TATL ban, they're going to have to institue their own ban from Europe.
 
Adipocere
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:37 am

So can Europeans fly/ drive/ take a train into the U.K. and get on ex-LHR tickets to the US? Or fly into Canada and cross land borders into the US? Has USCIS posted an official regulation?
 
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casinterest
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:37 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
casinterest wrote:
Waterbomber2 wrote:

Well, that's in 2.5 hours.
Midnight of a day is 0:00, as there is no 24:00.


Today is Wednesday/


You are right, my bad.

So it will be in 26.5 hours.
So just enough for another cycle of TATL flights and then flights will be shut down.
Perhaps even the European operators will make another cycle on Thursday and then shut it down.

I had a flight planned to SFO at the end of the month, I guess that I'm going to send an email to my OTA.
Still, I understand, Europe with the exception of Italy didn't close their borders to China and is now seeing outbreaks all over the place, most being blamed on people returning from Italy but who knows, that's probably a mere excuse for the other countries. How did it get to Italy anyway when they shut down their flights to/from China?

While my own travel plans are going to be cancelled, these are exceptional times and I fully understand Pres. Trump's decision.


I get it, but it is like throwing the water tight bulkhead doors closed when there are already holes in side of the isolated compartment.
Where ever you go, there you are.
 
jrfspa320
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:37 am

i would imagine travel will be limited to USA / UK passport holders and residents?
 
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shamrock350
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:38 am

The move to exclude the UK is clearly politically motivated, he's a big supporter of Brexit and his speech was full of anti-EU sentiment.

The UK experienced its biggest daily rise in cases today, now heading towards 500+ with 8 deaths. There is no reasonable explanation to exclude it from the travel ban.
 
GSP psgr
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:39 am

alexdelzotto wrote:
I wonder if Air Canada could profit from this.

Does the ban count if a pax does DCA-YUL-CDG?


I also wonder if this ends up as a huge boon for BA/AA, with LHR exempted.
 
klakzky123
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:39 am

Geez the Dow futures really took a tumble after that speech.
 
Jerseyguy
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:39 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
alexdelzotto wrote:
I wonder if Air Canada could profit from this.

Does the ban count if a pax does DCA-YUL-CDG?


I would assume so.


I would assume if your intinerary includes Europe, then you would be effected. If when you go thru US preclearance your passport shows recent travel to Europe that would be a problem too. Can they elimate everyone no but probably most.
Last edited by Jerseyguy on Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:39 am

You could see this one coming for a while now. I could see this really hastening the demise of Norwegian, which had been somewhat safe. That said, any carrier outside of the big groups could be in real trouble...as does this ban also cover overflight over US airspace? Also, I have to wonder if people will try to enter the USA via YYZ or YUL, with Air Canada expanding capacity on mainline flights cross-border.

Also, how are airline slots maintained, especially at the Level 3 JFK?
Last edited by aemoreira1981 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
JAMBOJET
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Re: TRUMP CANCELS ALL EUROPE TRAVEL FROM US EXCEPT FOR UK

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:40 am

Wednesdayite wrote:
On the plus side - an increase in demand for Air Canada flights? He can’t ban travel between Canada and continental Europe.


Or AA/BA via LHR? Can people still connect to Europe via the UK or is that banned too?
 
danipawa
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:41 am

this was the final move for Norwegian....
 
leo777
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:41 am

JetBuddy wrote:
leo777 wrote:
I don’t think this will work. People stuck in other countries in Europe will funnel thru the UK. ORD will have plane after plane from British and Aer Lingus.


They might try, but it won't succeed. Customs and border control knows where you are and have been.

The UK is not in the EU, and not in the Schengen treaty either. If the US says "No European travel to the US", then there will be none. There's no funnel.


The UK is in Europe check a map they may not be part of the EU but it is in Europe and you don’t know what customs will do! This is not going to work and you know it! Where there’s a will there’s a way and people will find a way around it. If US residents are stuck in other European countries they will funnel thru the UK to get back home period.
Last edited by leo777 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
You got to be careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there.
 
Adipocere
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:42 am

phxa340 wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Does anyone else get the logic in excluding the U.K.? Any European can just fly into open borders U.K. and jump on a flight to the US??


Um no. Customs will have the data on where the passenger originated from.


Uhm there are no passport checks in Europe - so how would customs know where someone traveled to/ from in Europe? Unless the U.K. closes its borders to Europe - I don’t see how this loophole won’t allow Europeans to keep pouring into the US??
 
FGITD
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:43 am

fun2fly wrote:
Incalculable ban on travel for any period in history. Most tatl and Tpac stopped. The next few days will be amazing


Thousands of airline employees will go into work Friday and not be returning Monday. Hardly what I would call "amazing"
 
KingB123
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:43 am

BA and VIRGIN ATLANTIC are rubbing their hands tonight!!!
King B
 
dfwking
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:44 am

I wonder if this apply to non-EU countries like Russia and Ukraine...
Last edited by dfwking on Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
SoEWR
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:47 am

RIP Norwegian Air
 
axiom
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:48 am

Adipocere wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Does anyone else get the logic in excluding the U.K.? Any European can just fly into open borders U.K. and jump on a flight to the US??


Um no. Customs will have the data on where the passenger originated from.


Uhm there are no passport checks in Europe - so how would customs know where someone traveled to/ from in Europe? Unless the U.K. closes its borders to Europe - I don’t see how this loophole won’t allow Europeans to keep pouring into the US??


The UK is not part of Shengen. There are border controls between the UK and Common Travel Area. So, yes, border agents in the US would know.
 
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vhtje
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:48 am

With the UK excluded, how could this even work? You’d just book [EU City] -> LHR -> [US City] and lie about where you started, surely? (Yes, I know that would be an offence, but people will do it)

Good for BA, I guess, if all EU traffic is suddenly being funnelled through LHR.
I only turn left when boarding aircraft. Well, mostly. All right, sometimes. OH OKAY - rarely.
 
KFTG
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:49 am

Meanwhile I can still fly to South Korea.
 
KingB123
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:50 am

vhtje wrote:
With the UK excluded, how could this even work? You’d just book [EU City] -> LHR -> [US City] and lie about where you started, surely? (Yes, I know that would be an offence, but people will do it)

Good for BA, I guess, if all EU traffic is suddenly being funnelled through LHR.



I presume systems will flag up where the passenger originated. Secondly, i believe that all European passengers are banned from travelling to the USA which means that they will be denied boarding in this case.
King B
 
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par13del
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:51 am

Adipocere wrote:
So can Europeans fly/ drive/ take a train into the U.K. and get on ex-LHR tickets to the US? Or fly into Canada and cross land borders into the US? Has USCIS posted an official regulation?

Why would Europeans want to leave Europe and travel to the USA during a virus outbreak where Europe has a higher reported infection rate?
 
COEWR787
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:51 am

Adipocere wrote:
Does anyone else get the logic in excluding the U.K.? Any European can just fly into open borders U.K. and jump on a flight to the US??

Who says UK is "open borders"? ;)
 
J2flyer
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:51 am

Hello, I'm due to fly to Berlin tomorrow March 12th, BOS-LHR-TXL. Back March 23rd on British Airways. Will I be able to request a refund from British Airways?
 
1989worstyear
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:51 am

Rip all remaining pax 757's and 767's.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
dazwalsh
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:51 am

Is there anything stopping IAG from sending all EI's heavy metal to LHR and filling those up too?
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:52 am

vhtje wrote:
With the UK excluded, how could this even work? You’d just book [EU City] -> LHR -> [US City] and lie about where you started, surely? (Yes, I know that would be an offence, but people will do it)

Good for BA, I guess, if all EU traffic is suddenly being funnelled through LHR.


Traveling on a French passport arriving at JFK would be one clue.
 
danipawa
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:52 am

Oh dear Norwegian...
 
KingB123
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:56 am

Wonders for British Airways and Virgin Atlantic, we'll probably see frequency increases and very high fares today to the USA (THURSDAY)
King B
 
Scotron12
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:58 am

This will hurt LH in a big way...same for AF/KLM.
 
KingB123
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:59 am

leo777 wrote:
JetBuddy wrote:
leo777 wrote:
I don’t think this will work. People stuck in other countries in Europe will funnel thru the UK. ORD will have plane after plane from British and Aer Lingus.


They might try, but it won't succeed. Customs and border control knows where you are and have been.

The UK is not in the EU, and not in the Schengen treaty either. If the US says "No European travel to the US", then there will be none. There's no funnel.


The UK is in Europe check a map they may not be part of the EU but it is in Europe and you don’t know what customs will do! This is not going to work and you know it! Where there’s a will there’s a way and people will find a way around it. If US residents are stuck in other European countries they will funnel thru the UK to get back home period.


US residents can fly through the UK no bother, its EUROPEAN nationals who wont be able to do that!
King B
 
Ishrion
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:00 am

So the ban only applies to foreigners? I’m assuming we’ll still see frequency cuts and suspensions either way?
 
KingB123
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:00 am

J2flyer wrote:
Hello, I'm due to fly to Berlin tomorrow March 12th, BOS-LHR-TXL. Back March 23rd on British Airways. Will I be able to request a refund from British Airways?


Contact BA and see what they say! Are you an american national?
King B
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:00 am

While it is secondary to the topic at hand, Philly, EWR, JFK, IAD, e.t.c are going to be significantly impacted on the domestic side. Not that the flights would have been full anyway, but a lot domestic flights to these airports are filled 80%+ of connecting passengers to Europe.

Given the sheer number of wide-bodies flying TATL, there is no way they are redeploying these aircraft to the domestic market, even if there was demand. (which there isn't)

Feel bad for the Euro airlines, probably little to no cash coming in at the moment....I recall Lufthansa calling the situation "dire" a week or two ago, I can't imagine what it is like now....

Booking curve is wrecked for any TATL flight for the next 6-8 months....at the least
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
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shamrock350
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:00 am

While this is still a developing situation, and Trump could extend the ban further, the US Department of Homeland Security states this a Schengen Area ban. The list of countries affected does not included the UK (as already stated by Trump) but also Ireland and Cyprus.

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2020/03/11/hom ... oclamation

Potential relief for the likes of Aer Lingus?
 
crjflyboy
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:04 am

I wonder if the covers corporate jet travel as well
 
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tenHangar
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:05 am

Is there an official list of countries yet? Just the EU? Ireland? Russia?....
Also stay tuned for many exceptions, back tracking, and clarifications to the "travel ban"
 
SimonDanger
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:06 am

Adipocere wrote:
phxa340 wrote:
Adipocere wrote:
Does anyone else get the logic in excluding the U.K.? Any European can just fly into open borders U.K. and jump on a flight to the US??


Um no. Customs will have the data on where the passenger originated from.


Uhm there are no passport checks in Europe - so how would customs know where someone traveled to/ from in Europe? Unless the U.K. closes its borders to Europe - I don’t see how this loophole won’t allow Europeans to keep pouring into the US??


I would think that anyone wanting to fly to the U.S. thru the UK has to have either a British or U.S. passport, so however you got to the UK, unless you have one of those you're probably going to be denied a seat.
 
smokeybandit
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:06 am

I have no doubt most will be exposed to coronavirus. But most have been exposed to the regular flu, too.
 
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par13del
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:06 am

Adipocere wrote:
Uhm there are no passport checks in Europe - so how would customs know where someone traveled to/ from in Europe? Unless the U.K. closes its borders to Europe - I don’t see how this loophole won’t allow Europeans to keep pouring into the US??

How about looking at this another way.
There are a lot of Americans still in Europe, the UK may not be the largest European destination but I believe it does carry the most TATL traffic.
By leaving one route open you can better control the traffic flowing into the USA, the number of flights and destinations have now been severely limited and resources on the USA side can be focused on the arrivals. On the European side, a host of airports no longer need to direct resources to flights going to the USA.
If American citizens get stranded and cannot get to the UK, the US Air Force or special charters can be arranged.
European or other nationals in Europe who want to flee for what they think are safer environs in the USA just got a serious block thrown in their plans.

The lock down appeared to work in China and probably would have been better if airlines were not so focused on continuing business as if this was a terrorist action. The additional funds that they made by continuing flights to China is going to pale in comparison to the losses they are now going to take across their entire networks, a case of penny wise pound foolish.
Last edited by par13del on Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
crjflyboy
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Re: US cancels flight to Europe except UK for 30 days

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:08 am

I'm assuming this also covers corporate jet travel as well
 
 
TXMikeDC
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:09 am

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