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enilria
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OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:12 pm

FAQ

AS OF JULY 2018 THERE ARE CHANGES TO THE FORMAT OF THIS REPORT...SEE BELOW

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...prior year departures are now shown in brackets e.g. [0].

THE SCHEDULES SHOWN HERE CHANGE AFTER YOU POST???
-To improve is to change; to be perfect is to change often---Winston Churchill. This is data the carriers filed at the point in time it was captured. It's changed since then. You are just going to have to live with it.

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5[4] JAN 4>5[4]
XXX Departure IATA code, YYY Arrival IATA code, Month, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of last week, Average Departures/Day over the month for sale as of this week, in brackets is the number of Average Departures/Day over the month that were scheduled one year earlier. So, it means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. It also means that there were 4 roundtrips the prior year in each month. No other months were changed. I average two directions.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
NEW CHANGE-Sometimes airlines do not load their schedules for the entire 330 day standard sales window. Southwest and many LCCs load their schedules for as little as 5 months into the future. When these flight are extended into a new sales month, it becomes a "schedule change". Previously, I have manually deleted these in many cases and replaced them with a Year-Over-Year compare. Effective immediately, this will now change. When a flight is loaded from 0 departures X departures, where X was the same the prior year, the record will not be shown. For example, if Delta loaded ATL-EGE MAR 0>1(1), it would not be shown because this additional flight does not represent a real year-over-year addition. Similarly, if B6 extended their schedule a record like this ATL-BOS JUL 0>4(4) would not be shown. It will be shown if the flight frequency changed from the prior year. So B6 ATL-BOS JUL 0>3(4) would be shown. If a partial month was loaded in a core schedule that became a full schedule month, those changes may be shown under this logic. For example, WN BNA-SEA 0.3>2(2). Because only a fraction of the month was previously loaded for sale, these changes will not be filtered out. I may, however, manually remove them to declutter.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month. The following criteria are used to show a change: 1) The change must be at least 6 roundtrips per month with no exceptions, 2) changes of at least 6/week are always shown, 3) routes that are added or dropped are shown subject to the change minimum, and 4) in all other cases routes must change by 20% to be shown. For example, if a route changed from 21/week to 18/week it would not be shown because the change is -14.3%. This is done to filter minor changes that occur in large numbers.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. If the route has more than 2 daily flights, departures are rounded, but in cases of less than 2 departures per day a fraction is shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
Seats are not shown. That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard or overlapping schedule periods that see the same flight number in two places at once. These cause flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

******THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. If consumer sentiment does not change quickly on the virus I expect massive cuts coming as corporations are cutting travel left and right...

**3M CHS-FLL MAY 0>0.2[0] JUN 0>0.6[0] JUL 0>0.6[0] AUG 0>0.6[0] SEP 0>0.6[0] OCT 0>0.6[0] NOV 0>0.6[0] DEC 0>0.6[0]
**3M CHS-MCO MAY 0>0.4[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0]
**3M CHS-TPA JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0] AUG 0>0.4[0] SEP 0>0.4[0] OCT 0>0.4[0] NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.4[0]
**3M MCO-VPS SEP 0.5>0.1[1.0] OCT 0.6>0[1.0] NOV 0.6>0[0] DEC 0.5>0[0]

4P BKL-LUK APR 1.5>1.8[1.5] MAY 1.3>1.8[1.4]

AA ATL-LAX JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3]
AA BFL-PHX JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3]
**AA BLR-SEA OCT 0>0.2[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0]
AA BWI-MIA JUN 1.9>1.0[2] JUL 2>1.0[2] AUG 2>1.5[1.6]
AA BWI-ORD JUN 5>4[4] JUL 5>4[4] AUG 5>4[4]
AA CLE-MIA SEP 3>2[2] OCT 3>2[2]
**AA CLT-IPT AUG 0>0.8[0] SEP 0>1.9[0] OCT 0>1.8[0] NOV 0>1.9[0] DEC 0>1.9[0]
AA CLT-STT SEP 0.8>0.1[0.2] OCT 0.8>0.2[0.1]
AA CMH-DCA JUN 5>4[5] JUL 5>4[4] AUG 5>4[5] SEP 5>4[5] OCT 5>4[5] NOV 5>4[5] DEC 5>4[4]
AA CMH-LAX JUN 1.9>1.0[1.8] JUL 2>1.0[1.8] AUG 1.5>1.0[1.8]
Looks like it resumes in DEC
**AA CUU-PHX JUN 1.0>0.1[0] JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 1.0>0[0] SEP 1.0>0[0] OCT 1.0>0[0] NOV 1.0>0[0] DEC 1.0>0.5[0.5]
AA DAY-PHL JUL 5>4[5] AUG 5>4[5] SEP 5>4[5] OCT 5>4[4] NOV 5>4[4] DEC 5>4[3]
AA DRO-PHX JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[3] AUG 2>3[3]
AA DTW-MIA JUN 2>1.1[1.9] JUL 2>1.0[1.7] AUG 2>1.5[1.9]
AA EWR-PHX JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[4]
AA FLL-ORD JUN 1.9>1.0[0.8] JUL 2>1.0[0.1] AUG 2>1.0[0]
AA GJT-PHX JUN 3>2[2] JUL 3>2[2.0]
AA IAH-PHX JUN 4>3[4] JUL 4>3[4]
**AA IPT-PHL AUG 1.8>1.0[3] SEP 1.9>0[2] OCT 1.8>0[2] NOV 1.9>0[1.9] DEC 1.9>0[2.0]
AA LAS-PHX JUN 6>5[5] JUL 6>5[5]
AA LAX-SEA NOV 5>6[4] DEC 5>6[4]
AA LAX-SFO JUN 8>7[8] JUL 8>7[8] AUG 8>7[9]
AA LGA-PIT JUL 6>5[5]
AA LGA-RIC JUN 4>3[4] JUL 3>2[4]
**AA LGA-SAV JUN 0.3>0[0.3] JUL 0.3>0[0.3] AUG 0.3>0[0.3] SEP 0.3>0[0.3] OCT 0.3>0[0.3] NOV 0.3>0[0.3] DEC 0.3>0[0.3]
AA MAF-PHX JUN 1.0>1.9[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.5[1.0]
AA MFR-PHX JUN 1.0>1.9[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.6[1.0]
AA MIA-SAP SEP 1.0>1.3[1.1]
AA MIA-TGU SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0]
That's a large cut
*AA MIA-YYZ JUN 3>1.0[3] JUL 3>1.0[3] AUG 3>1.9[3]
AA OAK-PHX JUN 4>3[3] JUL 4>3[3]
AA ORD-RSW JUN 2>1.2[1.1] JUL 2>1.0[1.0] AUG 1.5>1.0[1.0]
*AA ORD-SAV OCT 1.0>0.8[1.0] NOV 1.0>0[0.1] DEC 1.0>0[0]
AA ORD-TPA JUN 3>2[1.8] JUL 3>2[3] AUG 3>2[3]
AA PHL-PVD JUN 6>5[5] JUL 6>5[5] AUG 6>5[5] SEP 6>5[5] OCT 6>5[5] NOV 6>5[4] DEC 6>5[4]
AA PHL-SAN JUN 3>2[3] JUL 4>3[3] AUG 4>3[3] SEP 4>3[2] OCT 4>3[2] NOV 4>3[1.9] DEC 4>3[2.0]
AA PHX-RNO JUN 4>5[5] JUL 4>5[5]
AA PHX-SBA JUN 4>5[4] JUL 4>5[4]
AA PHX-SLC JUN 5>3[4] JUL 5>3[4] AUG 5>4[4]
AA PHX-STS JUN 1.1>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.5[1.0]
AA PHX-TUS JUN 6>7[7] JUL 6>7[7]

AC ANC-YVR JUL 2>1.0[2]
AC CLE-YYZ JUL 3>4[4] AUG 3>4[4]
AC FLL-YYZ SEP 0.9>1.1[1.1]
AC LAS-YVR JUL 2>1.0[1.0]
AC LAX-YYZ JUL 6>7[6]
AC SMF-YVR SEP 1.0>1.2[1.0]

AF CDG-JFK NOV 4>5[4] DEC 4>5[4]

AN ABQ-SVC SEP 0>2[3] OCT 0>2[3]
AN PHX-SVC SEP 0>1.0[1.2] OCT 0>1.0[1.1]

This must be an error. They have done this several times.
*AS ANC-DUT JUN 2>0[3] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 2>0[2] OCT 2>0[2] NOV 2>0[2] DEC 2>0[3]
AS ANC-PHX OCT 0.8>0[0] NOV 1.0>0.4[0.6]
AS AUS-PDX JUN 1.0>1.4[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0] OCT 1.0>2[1.0] NOV 1.0>1.6[1.0]
AS AUS-SEA SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2] NOV 2>3[2.0] DEC 2>3[2]
AS BIL-PDX JUN 1.4>1.0[1.0] JUL 2>1.0[1.0] AUG 2>1.5[1.0] OCT 2>1.2[1.0] NOV 2>1.4[1.0]
AS BOI-PDX SEP 9>7[7] OCT 9>7[8] NOV 9>8[7]
AS BOI-SAN SEP 2>1.3[1.0] OCT 2>1.0[1.0] NOV 2>1.4[1.0]
AS BOI-SEA OCT 11>10[11]
AS BOS-PDX OCT 2>1.2[2.0] NOV 2.0>1.4[1.4]
AS BWI-PDX SEP 1.0>0.3[0] OCT 0.2>0[0]
AS BZN-PDX SEP 1.0>1.7[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.2[1.0]
AS DFW-SEA JUL 3>4[4] AUG 3>4[4]
AS EUG-PDX SEP 2>3[3] OCT 2>3[3] NOV 2>3[3]
AS FAT-SAN SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3] NOV 3>4[3] DEC 3>4[3]
AS FCA-PDX OCT 1.0>0.2[0] NOV 1.0>0.4[0]
AS GEG-PDX OCT 8>7[9]
AS GEG-SEA SEP 14>16[17] OCT 14>17[17] NOV 14>16[16]
AS HLN-SEA OCT 2>1.2[1.0] NOV 2>1.4[1.0]
AS HNL-SJC SEP 1.0>0.7[0.6] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.6] NOV 1.0>0.8[0.7]
AS IND-SEA SEP 1.3>2[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.2[1.0]
AS JNU-SIT SEP 2>1.9[2]
AS KOA-PDX SEP 0.6>0.9[0] OCT 0.5>1.0[0] NOV 0.8>1.0[0.9]
AS KOA-SJC SEP 1.0>0.6[0.4] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.5] NOV 1.0>0.6[0.7]
AS LAS-SEA OCT 8>9[8]
AS LAX-OGG OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]
AS LAX-PVR OCT 1.0>1.6[1.0] NOV 1.0>1.4[1.3]
AS LAX-SFO OCT 14>13[10]
AS LAX-SJD SEP 1.9>3[1.6] OCT 1.9>3[1.6]
AS LIH-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[0.5]
AS MCI-SEA OCT 3>2[2]
AS MCO-SEA OCT 2>3[2] NOV 2>3[2]
AS MRY-SAN SEP 1.0>1.7[1.0] OCT 1.0>2[1.0] NOV 1.0>2[1.0] DEC 1.0>2[1.0]
AS MSO-PDX JUN 1.6>2[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.2[1.0]
AS MSY-SFO OCT 0.8>0[1.0] NOV 1.0>0.4[1.0]
AS OAK-PDX SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]
AS OGG-PDX SEP 2>1.3[1.0] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.4[2]
AS OGG-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]
AS OMA-SEA SEP 1.3>2.0[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.2[1.0]
AS ORD-PDX OCT 2>1.2[2.0] NOV 2>1.4[1.5]
AS ORD-SEA JUL 6>5[5] AUG 6>5[5]
AS PDX-PHX SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2] NOV 2>3[2.0] DEC 2>3[2]
AS PDX-PSP SEP 0>0.7[0.1] OCT 1.0>1.8[1.3] NOV 1.6>2[1.9]
AS PDX-PVR OCT 0.1>0.5[0] NOV 0.3>0.6[0.5]
AS PDX-SFO OCT 8>7[7]
AS PDX-SJD OCT 0.1>0.5[0] NOV 0.3>0.6[0.5]
AS PDX-SLC SEP 4>3[2] OCT 4>2[2] NOV 4>3[2]
AS PIT-SEA SEP 1.3>2[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.2[1.0]
AS PSP-SEA SEP 1.0>1.7[1.1] OCT 3>4[2]
AS PVR-SAN SEP 0.4>0.2[0.1]
AS PVR-SEA OCT 0.5>0.9[0.5] NOV 0.9>1.2[1.1]
AS RDM-SEA OCT 5>6[6]
AS SAN-SJC SEP 6>7[4] OCT 6>8[4] NOV 6>7[4]
AS SAN-SMF SEP 3>4[4] OCT 3>4[4]
AS SAT-SEA SEP 2>1.3[2] OCT 2>1.0[2.0] NOV 2>1.4[2.0]
AS SEA-SIT SEP 1.5>0.4[0.5] OCT 0.3>0[0.1]
AS SEA-SLC JUL 6>5[5]
AS SEA-STL OCT 2>1.2[1.9] NOV 2>1.4[1.9]
AS SEA-STS SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[2.0] NOV 3>4[1.1]
AS SEA-TPA SEP 2>1.3[1.0]
AS SEA-TUS SEP 1.0>1.7[1.0]
AS SEA-YVR OCT 7>6[6]

B0 EWR-ORY JUL 1.4>1.0[1.6]

B6 ATL-JFK MAY 2>3[2]
B6 BQN-MCO MAY 2.5>1.9[1.5]

**BW KIN-MCO SEP 0.3>0[0] OCT 0.3>0[0] NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0.2]

CON ANC-UUK APR 0>1.3[0] MAY 0>1.2[0] JUN 0>1.3[0] JUL 0>1.3[0] AUG 0>1.2[0] SEP 0>1.3[0] OCT 0>1.3[0] NOV 0>1.3[0] DEC 0>1.3[0]

DI JFK-LGW NOV 1.7>3[3] DEC 1.9>3[3]

DL ANC-SEA OCT 3>4[3] NOV 3>4[3] DEC 3>4[3]
DL ASE-LAX DEC 0>0.7[0.6]
DL ATL-BZN DEC 0.6>1.1[0.7]
DL ATL-EGE DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
*DL ATL-ICN APR 1.0>0.7[0.9]
DL ATL-MTJ DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
DL ATL-RNO AUG 1.0>0.8[0]
DL AUS-SEA JUN 1.0>1.8[1.0] JUL 1.0>2[1.0] AUG 1.0>2[1.0] SEP 1.0>2.0[0.8] OCT 1.0>2[0.8] NOV 1.0>1.9[0.8] DEC 1.0>1.9[0.9]
DL BOI-LAX SEP 1.8>3[1.7] OCT 1.8>3[1.7] NOV 1.9>3[1.5] DEC 1.8>3[1.8]
DL BZN-DTW DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
DL BZN-LAX DEC 0>0.7[0.6]
DL BZN-MSP DEC 2>3[3]
**DL CMH-SEA JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0]
More war with AA
**DL DFW-SEA JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>3[0] AUG 0>3[0] SEP 0>3[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0]
*DL DTW-ICN APR 1.0>0.7[1.0]
*DL DTW-NGO APR 0.7>0.5[0.8]
DL FCA-MSP DEC 1.0>1.4[1.0]
DL GEG-LAX SEP 1.0>1.6[1.0] OCT 1.0>2[1.0] NOV 1.0>2[1.0] DEC 1.0>2[1.0]
DL HNL-SEA OCT 1.3>1.0[1.0] NOV 1.3>1.0[1.0]
*DL ICN-MSP APR 0.9>0[0.9]
*DL ICN-SEA APR 1.0>0.7[1.0]
DL JAC-LAX DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
DL JAC-SEA DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
DL LAX-LIH SEP 0.6>0.4[0.4]
DL LAX-RDU AUG 1.8>1.4[1.3]
DL LGA-MKE SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>6[4] NOV 4>6[4]
DL MCO-MSP SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]
DL MCO-SEA JUN 1.0>1.4[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.6[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.3[0.8] DEC 0.8>1.1[1.0]

DY BCN-JFK DEC 0.7>1.0[0.9]
DY BOS-CDG NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.2[0]
DY CDG-JFK NOV 1.0>1.2[1.0] DEC 0.9>1.2[1.2]
DY CDG-LAX DEC 0.9>1.1[1.0]
DY CDG-SFO DEC 0>0.2[0.3]
DY JFK-OSL NOV 0>0.5[0.6] DEC 0>0.5[0.6]
DY LAX-MAD DEC 0>0.4[0.3]

F9 ATL-MIA JUN 1.6>2[0.4] JUL 1.5>2.0[0.4]
F9 BWI-DEN JUN 0.6>0.8[0.6] JUL 0.6>1.0[0.6]
F9 DEN-DFW JUN 2>3[2] JUL 2>3[2] AUG 0.6>0.9[2]
F9 DEN-LAS MAY 3>4[3] JUN 3>4[3] JUL 3>4[3] AUG 0.8>1.1[3]
F9 DEN-SNA APR 1.3>1.0[1.0] MAY 2>1.0[1.4] JUN 2>1.0[1.4] JUL 2>1.0[1.4] AUG 0.6>0.3[1.4]
F9 LAS-PHL JUN 0.4>1.0[1.0] JUL 0.4>1.0[1.0]
F9 LAS-SNA APR 0.7>1.0[0] MAY 0>0.3[0] JUL 0>0.7[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
F9 LAX-PHX APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]
F9 ONT-SEA JUN 0>0.4[0] JUL 0>0.4[0]
F9 PHX-SJC APR 0>0.3[0] MAY 0>1.0[0] JUN 0>1.0[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>0.3[0]

HA HNL-ICN APR 0.7>0[0.7]
HA HNL-LIH NOV 20>19[18] DEC 20>19[18]
HA HNL-OGG DEC 26>25[27]

KE BOS-ICN APR 0.7>0.5[0.5]
KE DFW-ICN APR 0.7>0.5[0.7]
KE IAD-ICN APR 1.0>0.8[1.0]
KE ICN-JFK APR 2>1.2[2]
KE ICN-SFO APR 2>1.3[2]

KG CVN-DEN MAY 0>1.7[0] JUN 0>1.7[0] JUL 0>1.7[0] AUG 0>1.7[0] SEP 0>1.7[0] OCT 0>1.7[0]

SY ANC-MSP SEP 0>0.2[0.1]
SY BNA-LAX SEP 0>0.3[0.1] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0]
SY BNA-MSN OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.2[0]
SY BNA-MSP SEP 0>0.4[0.6] OCT 0>0.4[0.5] NOV 0>0.5[0.6] DEC 0>0.3[0.5]
SY BOS-MSN OCT 0>0.3[0]
Big increases in Fall frequency YOY
*SY BOS-MSP AUG 0.8>1.0[1.0] SEP 0>0.6[0.1] OCT 0>0.6[0] NOV 0>0.7[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
*SY BWI-MSP SEP 0>0.5[0] OCT 0>0.6[0] NOV 0>0.6[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
SY BZN-MSP SEP 0>0.3[0]
*SY CLE-MSP SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0]
SY CUN-MSP OCT 0>0.3[0.6] NOV 0>0.6[0.5] DEC 0>0.4[1.1]
SY DEN-MSP AUG 1.2>1.4[1.6] SEP 0>0.8[1.1] OCT 0>0.8[1.1] NOV 0>1.0[1.3]
*SY DFW-MSP SEP 0>0.3[0.1] OCT 0>0.6[0.1] NOV 0>0.6[0.2]
SY EWR-MSN OCT 0>0.3[0]
SY EWR-MSP AUG 0.8>1.0[1.0] SEP 0>0.7[0.8] OCT 0>0.8[0.9] NOV 0>0.7[0.9] DEC 0>0.3[0.9]
SY HNL-LAX NOV 0>0.3[0]
SY HRL-MSP NOV 0>0.4[0.5]
SY LAS-MSP AUG 1.5>2[2] DEC 0>1.1[2]
SY LAS-SAT OCT 0>0.4[0.5] NOV 0>0.5[0.6]
SY LAX-MSP AUG 2>3[3] SEP 0>1.9[1.8] OCT 0>1.7[1.4] NOV 0>2[1.8] DEC 0>0.7[2]
SY MCO-MSN NOV 0>0.2[0]
SY MCO-MSP AUG 1.0>1.2[1.0] SEP 0>1.0[1.2] NOV 0>2[1.9] DEC 0>0.9[2]
SY MSN-PHX NOV 0>0.2[0]
SY MSN-RSW NOV 0>0.2[0]
SY MSN-SEA OCT 0>0.3[0]
SY MSP-MSY NOV 0>0.3[0.5]
SY MSP-MYR SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0]
SY MSP-ORD SEP 0>0.5[0.9] OCT 0>0.6[0.9] NOV 0>0.6[0.8]
SY MSP-PDX AUG 0.8>1.0[1.0] SEP 0>0.8[0.9] NOV 0>0.7[0.8]
SY MSP-PHX AUG 0.6>0.8[0.9] OCT 0>1.8[1.7] NOV 0>2[1.9] DEC 0>0.4[2]
SY MSP-PSP OCT 0>0.5[0.6] NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.3[0.8]
SY MSP-PVD SEP 0>0.2[0.8]
SY MSP-PVR DEC 0>0.2[0.6]
SY MSP-RSW AUG 0.6>0.8[1.0] SEP 0>0.8[1.0] OCT 0>1.8[1.6] DEC 0>0.8[2]
SY MSP-SAN SEP 0>0.5[0.8] OCT 0>0.7[0.9] NOV 0>0.7[0.9]
SY MSP-SAT OCT 0>0.4[0.5] NOV 0>0.5[0.6]
SY MSP-SEA AUG 1.6>2[2] SEP 0>1.3[1.6] OCT 0>1.0[1.3] NOV 0>1.0[1.3]
SY MSP-SFO AUG 1.4>1.7[2] SEP 0>1.2[1.5] OCT 0>1.1[1.2] NOV 0>1.0[1.2] DEC 0>0.3[1.6]
SY MSP-TPA NOV 0>0.9[0.7] DEC 0>0.3[1.0]

TJ ACK-HPN NOV 0.7>1.0[0.8] DEC 0.3>0.6[0.8]
TJ ACK-TEB NOV 0.6>0.8[0.6]

*TK IST-ORD MAY 1.0>1.4[1.0] JUN 1.0>1.4[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.4[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.5[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.4[1.0] OCT 1.0>1.3[1.0]
*TK IST-SFO JUN 1.0>1.3[1.0] JUL 1.0>1.5[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.4[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.4[1.0]

UA ABE-ORD SEP 2>3[3] OCT 2>3[3] NOV 2>3[2] DEC 2>3[2]
UA ABQ-ORD AUG 1.0>1.5[1.0] SEP 1.0>2[1.9] OCT 1.0>1.8[2]
UA ANC-DEN AUG 2>1.5[2] SEP 2>1.0[2] OCT 1.8>1.0[1.1]
UA ANC-SFO AUG 0.5>1.0[1.0] SEP 0>0.2[0.1]
UA ASE-DEN SEP 5>6[6]
UA ATL-EWR SEP 7>8[6] OCT 7>8[7]
UA AUS-IAH SEP 9>10[9] OCT 9>10[9] NOV 9>10[9] DEC 9>10[9]
UA AUS-ORD SEP 5>4[4]
UA AVL-IAD SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2.0] NOV 2>3[2.0] DEC 2>3[2]
UA AVP-IAD AUG 1.8>2[2] SEP 1.9>3[2] OCT 1.8>3[2.0] NOV 1.9>3[2.0] DEC 1.9>3[1.9]
UA AZO-ORD SEP 2>3[3] OCT 2>3[3] NOV 2>3[3] DEC 2>3[3]
UA BDL-ORD SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4]
UA BGR-ORD AUG 1.1>2[2] OCT 0>1.5[1.7]
UA BHM-IAH SEP 6>5[5] OCT 6>5[5] NOV 6>5[6] DEC 6>5[4]
UA BNA-ORD SEP 7>8[7] OCT 7>8[7] NOV 7>8[7] DEC 7>8[6]
UA BOS-EWR SEP 11>12[11] OCT 11>12[11] NOV 11>12[10] DEC 11>12[9]
UA BOS-IAH SEP 5>4[4]
UA BTV-EWR SEP 3>4[6] OCT 3>4[5]
UA BUF-EWR SEP 5>6[7]
UA BUF-ORD SEP 4>5[5] OCT 4>5[5]
UA BWI-DEN SEP 3>2[2] OCT 3>2[2] NOV 3>2[2.0] DEC 3>2[2.0]
UA CAK-IAD SEP 4>3[0] OCT 4>3[0] NOV 4>3[0] DEC 4>3[0]
UA CAK-ORD SEP 4>5[5] OCT 4>5[4] NOV 4>5[4] DEC 4>5[4]
UA CHO-ORD SEP 2>3[2] OCT 2>3[2] NOV 2>3[2.0] DEC 2>3[2]
UA CHS-EWR SEP 4>5[4]
UA CHS-IAH SEP 3>2[2]
UA CHS-ORD SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]
UA CLE-DEN SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]
UA CLE-EWR SEP 7>8[7] OCT 7>8[7] NOV 7>8[7] DEC 7>8[7]
UA CLE-SFO AUG 2>1.5[2] SEP 2>1.0[1.1] OCT 2>1.0[1.1] NOV 2>1.0[1.0] DEC 2>1.5[1.5]
UA CLT-IAH SEP 5>4[5] OCT 5>4[5] NOV 5>4[5] DEC 5>4[5]
UA CMH-ORD SEP 7>8[7] OCT 7>8[7] NOV 7>8[8] DEC 7>8[7]
UA COD-DEN SEP 2>3[3]
UA COS-DEN SEP 9>10[9] OCT 9>10[10] NOV 9>10[10] DEC 9>10[9]
UA COS-IAH SEP 4>3[4]
UA CRP-IAH SEP 8>7[6] OCT 8>7[6] NOV 8>7[6] DEC 8>7[7]
UA DDC-DEN JUN 1.7>1.3[0]
UA DDC-PUB JUN 0>0.5[0]
UA DEN-DRO SEP 8>7[7]
UA DEN-ELP SEP 5>4[5]
UA DEN-EWR SEP 8>9[8]
UA DEN-FLL AUG 2>1.5[1.6] SEP 2>1.0[1.0]
UA DEN-GJT SEP 7>6[5]
UA DEN-GUC AUG 1.5>2[2] SEP 1.0>2[2]
UA DEN-IAD SEP 8>7[7]
UA DEN-LAX SEP 7>8[8] OCT 7>8[7] NOV 7>8[7] DEC 7>8[7]
UA DEN-MCO AUG 5>4[3] SEP 5>3[3]
UA DEN-MFR SEP 4>3[3] OCT 4>3[3] NOV 4>3[3] DEC 4>3[3]
UA DEN-MKE SEP 4>3[3] OCT 4>3[3] NOV 4>3[2.0] DEC 4>3[2]
UA DEN-MSO SEP 3>2[3] OCT 3>2[3] NOV 3>2[3] DEC 3>2[3]
UA DEN-MTJ SEP 4>5[4]
UA DEN-PRC JUN 2>1.5[1.0]
UA DEN-RSW AUG 0.7>1.0[0.2]
UA DEN-SFO SEP 9>10[9]
UA DEN-TPA SEP 3>2[2]
UA DEN-TUS SEP 5>4[3]
UA DEN-XWA SEP 4>3[0]
UA DFW-EWR SEP 5>7[5] OCT 5>7[5] NOV 5>7[5] DEC 5>7[5]
UA DLH-ORD SEP 3>4[4]
UA ELP-IAH SEP 6>5[6] OCT 6>5[5] NOV 6>5[5] DEC 6>5[5]
UA ELP-ORD AUG 1.0>1.5[0.9] SEP 1.0>2[1.0]
UA ERI-ORD AUG 1.8>2[2.0] SEP 1.9>3[2] OCT 1.8>3[2] NOV 1.9>3[1.9] DEC 1.9>3[1.9]
UA EWR-GUA AUG 0.6>1.0[0.7] SEP 0.1>1.0[0.1]
UA EWR-HKG APR 0.2>0[1.0]
UA EWR-IND SEP 7>8[6] OCT 7>8[7] NOV 7>8[7] DEC 7>8[6]
UA EWR-LAS SEP 6>7[7]
UA EWR-LIM DEC 0.5>0.9[0.8]
UA EWR-MKE SEP 4>5[4] OCT 4>5[4] NOV 4>5[4] DEC 4>5[4]
UA EWR-ORD SEP 11>12[11] OCT 11>12[11] NOV 11>12[10] DEC 11>12[9]
UA EWR-PDX AUG 2>1.5[2] SEP 2>1.0[1.9]
UA EWR-PEK APR 0.2>0[1.0]
UA EWR-PIT AUG 8>9[7] SEP 8>10[8] OCT 8>10[9] NOV 8>10[9] DEC 8>10[8]
UA EWR-PVG APR 0.2>0[1.0]
UA EWR-YVR SEP 0.4>0.2[0.3]
UA HKG-SFO APR 0.5>0[1.0]
UA IAD-PEK APR 0.2>0[1.0]
UA IAD-SAT SEP 2>3[2.0]
UA IAH-NRT APR 1.0>0.2[1.0]
UA ICN-SFO APR 1.7>0.4[1.6]
UA LAX-NRT APR 1.0>0.2[1.0]
UA LAX-PSP JUN 0.1>0.6[1.0]
UA LAX-PVG APR 0.2>0[1.0]
UA ORD-PEK APR 0.2>0[1.0]
UA ORD-PVG APR 0.2>0[1.0]
UA ORD-YQB AUG 1.5>1.0[2.0] SEP 2>1.0[2] OCT 1.5>0.8[1.7]
UA PEK-SFO APR 0.2>0[1.0]
UA PVG-SFO APR 0.5>0[2]
UA SFO-SIN APR 2>1.2[2]

VH CTG-MIA MAY 0>0.2[0] JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>0.8[0]
VH MDE-MIA JUN 0.7>1.0[0.7] JUL 0>0.6[1.0]

WC ASE-DAL JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0.5]

X4 HNH-JNU AUG 0>0.2[0]

Mostly Schedule extension
Y4 AGU-MDW DEC 0>0.7[0.5]
Y4 BJX-DFW NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
Y4 BJX-FAT NOV 0>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
Y4 BJX-LAS NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.5[0]
Y4 BJX-LAX NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.7[0.6]
Y4 BJX-MDW NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.9[0.8]
Y4 BJX-OAK NOV 0>0.5[0.6] DEC 0>0.4[0.6]
Y4 BJX-ORD NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.4[0]
Y4 DEN-MEX DEC 0>0.5[0.7]
Y4 DFW-DGO NOV 0>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.3[0.4]
Y4 DFW-ZCL NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
Y4 FAT-GDL OCT 0.9>1.2[1.0] NOV 0>1.3[1.0] DEC 0>1.6[1.4]
Y4 FAT-MLM DEC 0>0.4[0.5]
Y4 GDL-IAH DEC 0>0.8[0.6]
Y4 GDL-JFK NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.7[0.5]
Y4 GDL-MCO NOV 0>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
Y4 GDL-MDW OCT 0.8>1.0[1.0] DEC 0>1.3[1.2]
Y4 GDL-OAK OCT 0.8>1.2[1.1] NOV 0>1.4[1.2] DEC 0>1.8[1.5]
Y4 GDL-ONT OCT 0.8>1.0[1.0] NOV 0>1.1[1.0] DEC 0>1.4[1.1]
Y4 GDL-ORD OCT 0.4>0.7[0.5] NOV 0>0.8[0.4] DEC 0>1.1[0.9]
Y4 GDL-PHX NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.7[0.6]
Y4 GDL-SJC OCT 1.0>1.3[1.3] DEC 0>1.7[1.6]
Y4 GDL-SMF JUN 1.0>1.3[1.1] JUL 1.1>1.4[1.3] AUG 1.1>1.3[1.2] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0] OCT 0.7>1.3[1.0] NOV 0>1.4[1.0] DEC 0>1.4[1.1]
Y4 LAX-MEX OCT 1.5>2[1.3] NOV 0>2[1.3] DEC 0>2[1.3]
Y4 LAX-MLM OCT 0.5>0.7[0.8] DEC 0>0.7[0.6]
Y4 LAX-OAX DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
Y4 MCO-MEX DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
Y4 MDW-MLM JUL 1.0>1.3[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.3[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0] OCT 0.8>1.3[1.0] NOV 0>1.3[1.0] DEC 0>1.5[1.6]
Y4 MEX-MIA NOV 0>0.3[0.6] DEC 0>0.3[0.6]
Y4 MEX-OAK DEC 0>0.5[0.6]
Y4 MEX-ORD OCT 0.9>1.2[1.0] NOV 0>1.1[1.0] DEC 0>1.2[1.0]
Y4 MLM-OAK DEC 0>0.5[0.6]
**Y4 MLM-PDX JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
**Y4 MLM-SEA JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
Y4 MLM-SJC DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
**Y4 MLM-SMF JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
 
tphuang
Posts: 5460
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:22 pm

good morning enilria.

Thanks for this as usual. Interesting to see how quickly AS responded to DL's additions. There is more capacity to some of these midcon/transcon destinations out of SEA now than LAX/SFO.

Also, I'm surprised there hasn't been even more ICN cuts. I'd expect to see more out of KE. Just a matter of time before NRT/HND reductions start to come in with other airlines imo.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10301
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:26 pm

tphuang wrote:
good morning enilria.

Thanks for this as usual. Interesting to see how quickly AS responded to DL's additions. There is more capacity to some of these midcon/transcon destinations out of SEA now than LAX/SFO.

Also, I'm surprised there hasn't been even more ICN cuts. I'd expect to see more out of KE. Just a matter of time before NRT/HND reductions start to come in with other airlines imo.

GM to you.

I think ICN and MXP are definite and then I'm expecting domestic as soon as the airlines run their simulations of the new booking/demand level which may take a week or two. I think it will impact April-June at a minimum, probably beyond that.
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2875
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:47 pm

It sure didn’t take DL long to retaliate against AA’s SEA Transpacific & AS alliance. I expect more ex-SEA retaliatory measures in the coming weeks. Even increasing SEA-AUS to 2x is a bit of a jab.
 
Web
Posts: 350
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2005 6:56 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:51 pm

enilria wrote:
**DL CMH-SEA JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0]
**DL DFW-SEA JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>3[0] AUG 0>3[0] SEP 0>3[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0]

Can't remember if these were previously announced, but good adds. Maybe a bit too much capacity for the CMH market with AS also serving the route, but we'll see.

Both of these are to be operated with the A220. The perfect aircraft for the routes IMO.
 
flyfresno
Posts: 1079
Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:53 pm

Was hoping FAT would get close to catching up with SMF on int'l pax this year, but without any new vacation adds like SJD, this will definitely keep SMF in the lead.
 
pmanni1
Posts: 252
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:07 pm

Web wrote:
enilria wrote:
**DL CMH-SEA JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0]
**DL DFW-SEA JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>3[0] AUG 0>3[0] SEP 0>3[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0]

Can't remember if these were previously announced, but good adds. Maybe a bit too much capacity for the CMH market with AS also serving the route, but we'll see.

Both of these are to be operated with the A220. The perfect aircraft for the routes IMO.

AS has only one daily flight at CMH and it's an evening departure. DL will be morning.
 
Chuska
Posts: 362
Joined: Mon May 24, 2010 4:59 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:27 pm

WC ASE-DAL JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0.5]

Who is WC? (no, its not Wien Air Alaska anymore). Not coming up on googleflights.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5460
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:35 pm

enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
good morning enilria.

Thanks for this as usual. Interesting to see how quickly AS responded to DL's additions. There is more capacity to some of these midcon/transcon destinations out of SEA now than LAX/SFO.

Also, I'm surprised there hasn't been even more ICN cuts. I'd expect to see more out of KE. Just a matter of time before NRT/HND reductions start to come in with other airlines imo.

GM to you.

I think ICN and MXP are definite and then I'm expecting domestic as soon as the airlines run their simulations of the new booking/demand level which may take a week or two. I think it will impact April-June at a minimum, probably beyond that.

Totally agreed. The affects of these corporate travel cuts is going to lead to some interesting decisions for legacy airlines. Which is why I find delta sea adds to be quite ill timed. Shifting wide-bodies to domestic market is not sustainable. And decline in continental Europe travel demand is going to lead to cuts on Europe beyond just mxp.

These q1 earnings calls will be interesting to watch. Airlines stocks are going to get hammered if they don't fall in line with wall street expectations.
 
lavalampluva
Posts: 1433
Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:38 pm

Looks like MSP-TVF is switching from 4B to KG in June.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5435
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:38 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
Web wrote:
enilria wrote:
**DL CMH-SEA JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0]
**DL DFW-SEA JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>3[0] AUG 0>3[0] SEP 0>3[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0]

Can't remember if these were previously announced, but good adds. Maybe a bit too much capacity for the CMH market with AS also serving the route, but we'll see.

Both of these are to be operated with the A220. The perfect aircraft for the routes IMO.

AS has only one daily flight at CMH and it's an evening departure. DL will be morning.


AS is seasonally 2x daily on CMH-SEA
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8488
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:56 pm

Looks like DL got the seasonal ski season loads: BZN, MTJ, ASE, EGE.

Dominion301 wrote:
It sure didn’t take DL long to retaliate against AA’s SEA Transpacific & AS alliance. I expect more ex-SEA retaliatory measures in the coming weeks. Even increasing SEA-AUS to 2x is a bit of a jab.


DL doesn't have the surplus gates at SEA to do retaliatory moves. They need to stick with flights that make money.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14623
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:57 pm

enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
good morning enilria.

Thanks for this as usual. Interesting to see how quickly AS responded to DL's additions. There is more capacity to some of these midcon/transcon destinations out of SEA now than LAX/SFO.

Also, I'm surprised there hasn't been even more ICN cuts. I'd expect to see more out of KE. Just a matter of time before NRT/HND reductions start to come in with other airlines imo.

GM to you.

I think ICN and MXP are definite and then I'm expecting domestic as soon as the airlines run their simulations of the new booking/demand level which may take a week or two. I think it will impact April-June at a minimum, probably beyond that.


Thanks, as always, enilria.

I think we’re starting to see evidence of effects on short-haul flights that usually carry a lot of long-haul feed. AC, for instance, is running a crazy sale on YYZ transborder right now, and when I took a look at some seat maps while booking flights the number of seats sold was dreadful. I don’t know that it’s yet a big enough or universal enough effect to show up in any data (and the data lag anyway) but I do think the effects have started already.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
PVD757
Posts: 3286
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:23 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:02 pm

Looks like SY is running once weekly MSP-PVD and MCO-PVD from September through November.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8250
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:29 pm

Right now the airlines have got to be doing a ton of war games scenarios around capacity plans for summer 2020.

The challenge is that is takes months of lead time to develop the schedule and essentially fleet plans and crew scheduling were already set for what was supposed to be a record summer 2020 with everyone running at near red-line especially considering the MAX situation.

This is rapidly developing situation with the virus is rampant with some much fear and panic it’s hard for many to sort fact from fiction.

Q2 is going to be hit hard with the loss of TPAC, some TATL, and some domestic business travel. 80% of tickets are booked less than 5 weeks before departure, so there a lot of uncertainty how this will play out in the weeks ahead.

The next 4 weeks will be very telling as to what all unfolds and how this potentially impacts the summer schedule, whether directly through ongoing outbreaks and fear, or indirectly economic impact and recessionary fears.

These are the black swan event the industry fears.
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:32 pm

Lots of changes this week.

AS is tripling it’s presence in MRY with a new SEA flight and now a 2nd daily SAN flight.
 
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psa1011
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:08 pm

Great to see TK adding 787 service to SFO.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:13 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Right now the airlines have got to be doing a ton of war games scenarios around capacity plans for summer 2020.

The challenge is that is takes months of lead time to develop the schedule and essentially fleet plans and crew scheduling were already set for what was supposed to be a record summer 2020 with everyone running at near red-line especially considering the MAX situation.

This is rapidly developing situation with the virus is rampant with some much fear and panic it’s hard for many to sort fact from fiction.

Q2 is going to be hit hard with the loss of TPAC, some TATL, and some domestic business travel. 80% of tickets are booked less than 5 weeks before departure, so there a lot of uncertainty how this will play out in the weeks ahead.

The next 4 weeks will be very telling as to what all unfolds and how this potentially impacts the summer schedule, whether directly through ongoing outbreaks and fear, or indirectly economic impact and recessionary fears.

These are the black swan event the industry fears.


While TPAC may be of concern to the US3, I think the real worry is what could happen to Domestic & TATL since we are coming up on peak season.

From my understanding, TPAC flying hasn't been that lucrative as of late for much of the US3, (except for UA) and given the MAX grounding they can now use some of the freed up widebody capacity to cover for the planes that are currently out of service.

I'm thinking the real problem here is the decline in domestic & potential loss of a significant chunk of TATL demand in peak season. Even if the virus were to be wiped out tomorrow, the hit to summer bookings will already have been felt.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:16 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Right now the airlines have got to be doing a ton of war games scenarios around capacity plans for summer 2020.

The challenge is that is takes months of lead time to develop the schedule and essentially fleet plans and crew scheduling were already set for what was supposed to be a record summer 2020 with everyone running at near red-line especially considering the MAX situation.

This is rapidly developing situation with the virus is rampant with some much fear and panic it’s hard for many to sort fact from fiction.

Q2 is going to be hit hard with the loss of TPAC, some TATL, and some domestic business travel. 80% of tickets are booked less than 5 weeks before departure, so there a lot of uncertainty how this will play out in the weeks ahead.

The next 4 weeks will be very telling as to what all unfolds and how this potentially impacts the summer schedule, whether directly through ongoing outbreaks and fear, or indirectly economic impact and recessionary fears.

These are the black swan event the industry fears.


While TPAC may be of concern to the US3, I think the real worry is what could happen to Domestic & TATL since we are coming up on peak season.

From my understanding, TPAC flying hasn't been that lucrative as of late for much of the US3, (except for UA) and given the MAX grounding they can now use some of the freed up widebody capacity to cover for the planes that are currently out of service.

I'm thinking the real problem here is the decline in domestic & potential loss of a significant chunk of TATL demand in peak season. Even if the virus were to be wiped out tomorrow, the hit to summer bookings will already have been felt.


The crazy irony is that the virus is maybe offsetting the Max loss of capacity.
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:21 pm

enilria wrote:
This must be an error. They have done this several times.
*AS ANC-DUT JUN 2>0[3] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 2>0[2] OCT 2>0[2] NOV 2>0[2] DEC 2>0[3]

AS HNL-SJC SEP 1.0>0.7[0.6] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.6] NOV 1.0>0.8[0.7]
AS KOA-SJC SEP 1.0>0.6[0.4] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.5] NOV 1.0>0.6[0.7]
AS LAX-OGG OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]
AS LIH-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[0.5]
AS OGG-PDX SEP 2>1.3[1.0] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.4[2]
AS OGG-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]


ANC-DUT was not actually flown by AS, but they marketed it. After the crash, they have decided not to do so anymore so this just looks to be confirming this.

And more cuts to Hawaii. WN entering the market must really be hurting them with cuts week after week and HA getting the A321 didn't help either.
 
BAINY3
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:35 pm

lavalampluva wrote:
Looks like MSP-TVF is switching from 4B to KG in June.

Who is KG? And If I do an MSP-TVF flight search for June and July, everything still comes up Boutique.
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:36 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
enilria wrote:
This must be an error. They have done this several times.
*AS ANC-DUT JUN 2>0[3] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 2>0[2] OCT 2>0[2] NOV 2>0[2] DEC 2>0[3]

AS HNL-SJC SEP 1.0>0.7[0.6] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.6] NOV 1.0>0.8[0.7]
AS KOA-SJC SEP 1.0>0.6[0.4] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.5] NOV 1.0>0.6[0.7]
AS LAX-OGG OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]
AS LIH-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[0.5]
AS OGG-PDX SEP 2>1.3[1.0] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.4[2]
AS OGG-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]


ANC-DUT was not actually flown by AS, but they marketed it. After the crash, they have decided not to do so anymore so this just looks to be confirming this.

And more cuts to Hawaii. WN entering the market must really be hurting them with cuts week after week and HA getting the A321 didn't help either.


Aren’t those just seasonal cuts? At least for SJC, which has full WN competition, the cuts mirror the previous year and actually seem to have a bit *more* frequency.
 
sprxUSA
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 5:55 pm

BAINY3 wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
Looks like MSP-TVF is switching from 4B to KG in June.

Who is KG? And If I do an MSP-TVF flight search for June and July, everything still comes up Boutique.


KG is Key Lime Air d/b/a Denver Air Connection . They will be using E135 or 328jet according to a story I saw in Grand Forks Herald.

I doubt their flights have been loaded yet as decision was only made last week. And Boutique still showed up with flights DEN-Alliance, NE well after they were replaced by KG there last year.
Gem State Airlines..."we have a gem of an airline"
 
MO11
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:06 pm

Chuska wrote:
WC ASE-DAL JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0.5]

Who is WC? (no, its not Wien Air Alaska anymore). Not coming up on googleflights.


Meregrass.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:08 pm

BAINY3 wrote:
lavalampluva wrote:
Looks like MSP-TVF is switching from 4B to KG in June.

Who is KG? And If I do an MSP-TVF flight search for June and July, everything still comes up Boutique.

https://www.grandforksherald.com/busine ... ls-Airport
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:12 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
Lots of changes this week.

AS is tripling it’s presence in MRY with a new SEA flight and now a 2nd daily SAN flight.


I'm glad to see MRY finally getting some attention.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:39 pm

enilria wrote:

**AA CLT-IPT AUG 0>0.8[0] SEP 0>1.9[0] OCT 0>1.8[0] NOV 0>1.9[0] DEC 0>1.9[0]
**AA IPT-PHL AUG 1.8>1.0[3] SEP 1.9>0[2] OCT 1.8>0[2] NOV 1.9>0[1.9] DEC 1.9>0[2.0]


This is interesting. Obviously there's no O&D between IPT and PHL, but it seems unusual to see this kind of overflying of a hub in favor of another for the airport's only service.
 
teneriffe77
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:50 pm

[code][/code]
As far as IPT, https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/n ... -this.html, Which means they're switch from a 145 to PHL to a CR7 to CLT. Also the TVF route will triple the capacity as right now Boutique only uses 9 seat PC-12's while it's replacement uses 30-50 seat jets so this should help a lot.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:50 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

**AA CLT-IPT AUG 0>0.8[0] SEP 0>1.9[0] OCT 0>1.8[0] NOV 0>1.9[0] DEC 0>1.9[0]
**AA IPT-PHL AUG 1.8>1.0[3] SEP 1.9>0[2] OCT 1.8>0[2] NOV 1.9>0[1.9] DEC 1.9>0[2.0]


This is interesting. Obviously there's no O&D between IPT and PHL, but it seems unusual to see this kind of overflying of a hub in favor of another for the airport's only service.

More of a “last chance” to save commercial air service in IPT. US was going to end IPT a few years ago, but got a reprieve. I believe the growth of fracking saved it. The reliability of PHL made service between IPT and PHL inconsistent. CLT’s may be a nice option, especially with a lot of NE PA traffic headed to the southeast/FL. Plus it’s a larger gauge, going from a 145 to CR7, just in time for the Little League World Series.
https://www.sungazette.com/news/top-new ... tte-bound/
Last edited by flyjoe on Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 6:51 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Lots of changes this week.

AS is tripling it’s presence in MRY with a new SEA flight and now a 2nd daily SAN flight.


I'm glad to see MRY finally getting some attention.


Especially with DFW now going year round, and a 2nd daily seasonal flight.
 
TWA85
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:27 pm

It looks like the 789 for the AA SEA-BLR flight is coming from LAX.

https://onemileatatime.com/american-air ... re-flight/
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:27 pm

enilria wrote:
AS OAK-PDX SEP 3>4[3] OCT 3>4[3]


The first service increase for AS at long-neglected OAK since the VX purchase, and maybe the first overall since Hawaii increases in 2012.
 
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SANFan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 7:47 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
AS HNL-SJC SEP 1.0>0.7[0.6] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.6] NOV 1.0>0.8[0.7]
AS KOA-SJC SEP 1.0>0.6[0.4] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.5] NOV 1.0>0.6[0.7]
AS LAX-OGG OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]
AS LIH-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[0.5]
AS OGG-PDX SEP 2>1.3[1.0] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.4[2]
AS OGG-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]

And more cuts to Hawaii. WN entering the market must really be hurting them with cuts week after week and HA getting the A321 didn't help either.

Cuts to HI from SOME AS cities. They are taking a different approach at SAN where all HI flights are remaining daily (year-round?) and the daily-double upgrade in the SAN-OGG market is again appearing at the end of the year. Of course WN doesn't start SAN-HI until next month but I'm very happy to see AS (and perhaps even HA) taking an aggressive and proactive posture to preserve their presence in the Hawaii markets from SAN.

ericm2031 wrote:
AS is tripling it’s presence in MRY with a new SEA flight and now a 2nd daily SAN flight.

Back in mid-January when AS announced SEA-MRY, I posted that I wondered if this would affect the MRY-SAN route; I think I may have my answer. With this upgrade in service to MRY, all of SAN's established intra-CA markets -- except SBP which is less than 2 months old -- will see a minimum of daily-double service (at least seasonally) on AS. Looks like that has been shown to be a successful strategy for the Company. I hope we will see more added soon, such as OAK, SBA and perhaps even the likes of PSP, SCK and ACV.

bb
 
Aliqiout
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:12 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
enilria wrote:
This must be an error. They have done this several times.
*AS ANC-DUT JUN 2>0[3] JUL 2>0[2] AUG 2>0[2] SEP 2>0[2] OCT 2>0[2] NOV 2>0[2] DEC 2>0[3]

AS HNL-SJC SEP 1.0>0.7[0.6] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.6] NOV 1.0>0.8[0.7]
AS KOA-SJC SEP 1.0>0.6[0.4] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.5] NOV 1.0>0.6[0.7]
AS LAX-OGG OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]
AS LIH-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[0.5]
AS OGG-PDX SEP 2>1.3[1.0] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.4[2]
AS OGG-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]


ANC-DUT was not actually flown by AS, but they marketed it. After the crash, they have decided not to do so anymore so this just looks to be confirming this.

And more cuts to Hawaii. WN entering the market must really be hurting them with cuts week after week and HA getting the A321 didn't help either.

What cuts to HI? Certainly adjustments but a reduction 1.4 flights per week for only one month is not much of a trend
 
AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:16 pm

SANFan wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
AS HNL-SJC SEP 1.0>0.7[0.6] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.6] NOV 1.0>0.8[0.7]
AS KOA-SJC SEP 1.0>0.6[0.4] OCT 1.0>0.5[0.5] NOV 1.0>0.6[0.7]
AS LAX-OGG OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]
AS LIH-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[0.5]
AS OGG-PDX SEP 2>1.3[1.0] OCT 2>1.0[2] NOV 2>1.4[2]
AS OGG-SJC OCT 1.0>0.7[1.0]

And more cuts to Hawaii. WN entering the market must really be hurting them with cuts week after week and HA getting the A321 didn't help either.

Cuts to HI from SOME AS cities. They are taking a different approach at SAN where all HI flights are remaining daily (year-round?) and the daily-double upgrade in the SAN-OGG market is again appearing at the end of the year. Of course WN doesn't start SAN-HI until next month but I'm very happy to see AS (and perhaps even HA) taking an aggressive and proactive posture to preserve their presence in the Hawaii markets from SAN.

ericm2031 wrote:
AS is tripling it’s presence in MRY with a new SEA flight and now a 2nd daily SAN flight.

Back in mid-January when AS announced SEA-MRY, I posted that I wondered if this would affect the MRY-SAN route; I think I may have my answer. With this upgrade in service to MRY, all of SAN's established intra-CA markets -- except SBP which is less than 2 months old -- will see a minimum of daily-double service (at least seasonally) on AS. Looks like that has been shown to be a successful strategy for the Company. I hope we will see more added soon, such as OAK, SBA and perhaps even the likes of PSP, SCK and ACV.

bb


AS has a golden opportunity, and an advantage over WN, to use it’s E-jets to server smaller and mid-sized CA cities like the ones you listed and which wouldn’t be practical for WN and their 737-only fleet.
 
pmanni1
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 8:49 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
Web wrote:
Can't remember if these were previously announced, but good adds. Maybe a bit too much capacity for the CMH market with AS also serving the route, but we'll see.

Both of these are to be operated with the A220. The perfect aircraft for the routes IMO.

AS has only one daily flight at CMH and it's an evening departure. DL will be morning.


AS is seasonally 2x daily on CMH-SEA


You are correct. Seasonal from June 19 to Aug 18th. The other 10 months of the year they'll be giving up the morning departure to DL.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:37 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
From my understanding, TPAC flying hasn't been that lucrative as of late for much of the US3, (except for UA) and given the MAX grounding they can now use some of the freed up widebody capacity to cover for the planes that are currently out of service.


That's a little bit of an understatement.

TPAC has been a money sink for AA for years. I sometimes wonder why AA even flies TPAC, except to be a major airline in the modern world you have to fly to #2 Beijing, #4 Tokyo, #8 Shanghai, #9 Hong Kong, #13 Seoul, and #46 Sydney.

There is no One World partner in mainland China or Korea.
Cathay Pacific
Malaysia Airlines
Japan Airlines
Qantas
Qatar Airways

United profits are way down in TPAC despite having by far the largest revenue of the US3. Only Delta is making a profit consistently in the last few years.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:55 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
80% of tickets are booked less than 5 weeks before departure, so there a lot of uncertainty how this will play out in the weeks ahead..


I've been looking at loads for the next couple of weeks...they're holding up okay. But advance bookings have likely completely collapsed. I fear there will be major close-in schedule cuts by the world's airlines announced in the coming week and not just Asia. I read today that UA is saying China traffic is non-existent and travel to Asia in general is down 75%. Rachel Maddow reported on MSNBC the other night that Frankfurt airport was laying off thousands of workers.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:22 pm

flyjoe wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

**AA CLT-IPT AUG 0>0.8[0] SEP 0>1.9[0] OCT 0>1.8[0] NOV 0>1.9[0] DEC 0>1.9[0]
**AA IPT-PHL AUG 1.8>1.0[3] SEP 1.9>0[2] OCT 1.8>0[2] NOV 1.9>0[1.9] DEC 1.9>0[2.0]


This is interesting. Obviously there's no O&D between IPT and PHL, but it seems unusual to see this kind of overflying of a hub in favor of another for the airport's only service.

More of a “last chance” to save commercial air service in IPT. US was going to end IPT a few years ago, but got a reprieve. I believe the growth of fracking saved it. The reliability of PHL made service between IPT and PHL inconsistent. CLT’s may be a nice option, especially with a lot of NE PA traffic headed to the southeast/FL. Plus it’s a larger gauge, going from a 145 to CR7, just in time for the Little League World Series.
https://www.sungazette.com/news/top-new ... tte-bound/

I'm a bit surprised that this isn't being done on Piedmont to test the waters like they did when switching ERI-PHL to ERI-CLT.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:23 pm

AirFiero wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Back in mid-January when AS announced SEA-MRY, I posted that I wondered if this would affect the MRY-SAN route; I think I may have my answer. With this upgrade in service to MRY, all of SAN's established intra-CA markets -- except SBP which is less than 2 months old -- will see a minimum of daily-double service (at least seasonally) on AS. Looks like that has been shown to be a successful strategy for the Company. I hope we will see more added soon, such as OAK, SBA and perhaps even the likes of PSP, SCK and ACV.
bb

AS has a golden opportunity, and an advantage over WN, to use it’s E-jets to server smaller and mid-sized CA cities like the ones you listed and which wouldn’t be practical for WN and their 737-only fleet.

And I assume you've noticed, Air', that SJC-SAN is increasing to 8 daily r/t on Sept 9 -- the same number of flights as SAN-SFO -- and SAN-SMF is going back up to 4 daily r/t on the same date! Still many less frequencies than WN but... that AS-advantage also includes F/C seating which doesn't exist on any of the WN flights in those markets!

I'm very happ!y to see AS heading toward "competitive" in those 3 highly lucrative intra-CA markets and I'm just waiting for them to have the fleet-size to also enter the SAN-OAK market.

bb
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:28 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Right now the airlines have got to be doing a ton of war games scenarios around capacity plans for summer 2020.

The challenge is that is takes months of lead time to develop the schedule and essentially fleet plans and crew scheduling were already set for what was supposed to be a record summer 2020 with everyone running at near red-line especially considering the MAX situation.

This is rapidly developing situation with the virus is rampant with some much fear and panic it’s hard for many to sort fact from fiction.

Q2 is going to be hit hard with the loss of TPAC, some TATL, and some domestic business travel. 80% of tickets are booked less than 5 weeks before departure, so there a lot of uncertainty how this will play out in the weeks ahead.

The next 4 weeks will be very telling as to what all unfolds and how this potentially impacts the summer schedule, whether directly through ongoing outbreaks and fear, or indirectly economic impact and recessionary fears.

These are the black swan event the industry fears.


Business travel is going to fall off a cliff this week and within 1-2 weeks there will be a minimal amount of essential only business travel left. Many conferences being canceled as well as a ton of internal corporate meetings. I think in a week or two most airlines will be forced to issue cancelation waivers and you’ll see a lot of spring break travel canceled as well. That’s going to leave the airlines extremely unclear what they’re going to do for summer after a brutal Mar/Apr/May.
 
User avatar
OzarkD9S
Posts: 5730
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2001 2:31 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:22 pm

PacoMartin wrote:

There is no One World partner in mainland China or Korea.
Cathay Pacific
Malaysia Airlines
Japan Airlines
Qantas
Qatar Airways


Not oneworld, but AA has a new and growing relationship with China Southern.
Next up: STL DEN PSP DEN STL
 
flyjoe
Posts: 205
Joined: Thu Nov 24, 2005 1:10 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:43 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
flyjoe wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

I'm a bit surprised that this isn't being done on Piedmont to test the waters like they did when switching ERI-PHL to ERI-CLT.


Good point. I wonder why SCE-CLT hasn't started either with an E145, even at minimum as weekend seasonal service for football season and the winter months.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8488
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:57 pm

LotsaRunway wrote:
flyjoe wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

This is interesting. Obviously there's no O&D between IPT and PHL, but it seems unusual to see this kind of overflying of a hub in favor of another for the airport's only service.

More of a “last chance” to save commercial air service in IPT. US was going to end IPT a few years ago, but got a reprieve. I believe the growth of fracking saved it. The reliability of PHL made service between IPT and PHL inconsistent. CLT’s may be a nice option, especially with a lot of NE PA traffic headed to the southeast/FL. Plus it’s a larger gauge, going from a 145 to CR7, just in time for the Little League World Series.
https://www.sungazette.com/news/top-new ... tte-bound/

I'm a bit surprised that this isn't being done on Piedmont to test the waters like they did when switching ERI-PHL to ERI-CLT.


I wonder what the 'major' markets are from IPT. With same-day $849 fares r/t IPT-PHL that's not going to see much demand. I suspect people just drive to NYC, BWI, DCA, PIT and BUF, too (I did, way back). CLT works just fine for IPT-xxx-MCO/FLL/LAS/LAX.
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 799
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:07 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Right now the airlines have got to be doing a ton of war games scenarios around capacity plans for summer 2020.

The challenge is that is takes months of lead time to develop the schedule and essentially fleet plans and crew scheduling were already set for what was supposed to be a record summer 2020 with everyone running at near red-line especially considering the MAX situation.

This is rapidly developing situation with the virus is rampant with some much fear and panic it’s hard for many to sort fact from fiction.

Q2 is going to be hit hard with the loss of TPAC, some TATL, and some domestic business travel. 80% of tickets are booked less than 5 weeks before departure, so there a lot of uncertainty how this will play out in the weeks ahead.

The next 4 weeks will be very telling as to what all unfolds and how this potentially impacts the summer schedule, whether directly through ongoing outbreaks and fear, or indirectly economic impact and recessionary fears.

These are the black swan event the industry fears.


Business travel is going to fall off a cliff this week and within 1-2 weeks there will be a minimal amount of essential only business travel left. Many conferences being canceled as well as a ton of internal corporate meetings. I think in a week or two most airlines will be forced to issue cancelation waivers and you’ll see a lot of spring break travel canceled as well. That’s going to leave the airlines extremely unclear what they’re going to do for summer after a brutal Mar/Apr/May.


Aren't you the optimist? But unfortunately, I think you are right, unless the trajectory of new infections can be controlled soon. It's odd to me that the infections should occur particularly in Iran and Italy, who would have thunk? So it makes every place suspect and people are not going to travel. Does anyone have Feb 19 vs. Feb 20 statistics worldwide - how about USA?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8250
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:36 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
LotsaRunway wrote:
flyjoe wrote:
More of a “last chance” to save commercial air service in IPT. US was going to end IPT a few years ago, but got a reprieve. I believe the growth of fracking saved it. The reliability of PHL made service between IPT and PHL inconsistent. CLT’s may be a nice option, especially with a lot of NE PA traffic headed to the southeast/FL. Plus it’s a larger gauge, going from a 145 to CR7, just in time for the Little League World Series.
https://www.sungazette.com/news/top-new ... tte-bound/

I'm a bit surprised that this isn't being done on Piedmont to test the waters like they did when switching ERI-PHL to ERI-CLT.


I wonder what the 'major' markets are from IPT. With same-day $849 fares r/t IPT-PHL that's not going to see much demand. I suspect people just drive to NYC, BWI, DCA, PIT and BUF, too (I did, way back). CLT works just fine for IPT-xxx-MCO/FLL/LAS/LAX.

IPT is hold-over from the USAirways DH8 flying days when they used to have frequent service to both PIT and PHL.
Obviously they dropped PIT when the hub closed.
Improved air service over the years at MDT, AVP, and SCE(UNV) has impacted IPT, not to mention the general lack of economic growth, decline of industry, and graying of central Pennsylvania.
Yes, there was a spike in demand with the fracking boom in Northern PA a few years back, but that has now basically passed.

When the DH8 retired they upgauged to ERJs. IPT-PHL has no O&D, small business travel demand, so most of their demand is likely geared toward leisure/discretionary and sun/beach traffic.
State College (SCE/UNV) is less than an hour from IPT and has AA service to not just PHL but ORD. One can fly to ORD, IAD, PHL, DTW on AA/DL/UA and G4 recently started service to SFB and PIE. I suspect that G4 may have some appeal there for the sun/beach crowd. An IPT-CLT flight is better connectivity to sun/beach/leisure destinations than PHL.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1217
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:37 am

spinotter wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Right now the airlines have got to be doing a ton of war games scenarios around capacity plans for summer 2020.

The challenge is that is takes months of lead time to develop the schedule and essentially fleet plans and crew scheduling were already set for what was supposed to be a record summer 2020 with everyone running at near red-line especially considering the MAX situation.

This is rapidly developing situation with the virus is rampant with some much fear and panic it’s hard for many to sort fact from fiction.

Q2 is going to be hit hard with the loss of TPAC, some TATL, and some domestic business travel. 80% of tickets are booked less than 5 weeks before departure, so there a lot of uncertainty how this will play out in the weeks ahead.

The next 4 weeks will be very telling as to what all unfolds and how this potentially impacts the summer schedule, whether directly through ongoing outbreaks and fear, or indirectly economic impact and recessionary fears.

These are the black swan event the industry fears.


Business travel is going to fall off a cliff this week and within 1-2 weeks there will be a minimal amount of essential only business travel left. Many conferences being canceled as well as a ton of internal corporate meetings. I think in a week or two most airlines will be forced to issue cancelation waivers and you’ll see a lot of spring break travel canceled as well. That’s going to leave the airlines extremely unclear what they’re going to do for summer after a brutal Mar/Apr/May.


Aren't you the optimist? But unfortunately, I think you are right, unless the trajectory of new infections can be controlled soon. It's odd to me that the infections should occur particularly in Iran and Italy, who would have thunk? So it makes every place suspect and people are not going to travel. Does anyone have Feb 19 vs. Feb 20 statistics worldwide - how about USA?


I am an optimist, but my point of view is based on data points I’ve seen just this weekend from several large companies I know. It’s going to get rough out there for the airlines. The best chance we have for the least economic disruption is to make aggressive moves now. We could see things like really close in cancellations and temporary fleet reductions by the middle of this week.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8488
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:56 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
IPT is hold-over from the USAirways DH8 flying days when they used to have frequent service to both PIT and PHL.


My experience precedes the DH8s, back to the days of Shorts (and, glory be, the B1900s which were quiet by comparison).

Yes, if you're not headed from IPT to BOS, CHI, or some of the lesser TATL destinations served from PHL but not CLT, CLT works just fine.
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1548
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:52 am

SANFan wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
SANFan wrote:
Back in mid-January when AS announced SEA-MRY, I posted that I wondered if this would affect the MRY-SAN route; I think I may have my answer. With this upgrade in service to MRY, all of SAN's established intra-CA markets -- except SBP which is less than 2 months old -- will see a minimum of daily-double service (at least seasonally) on AS. Looks like that has been shown to be a successful strategy for the Company. I hope we will see more added soon, such as OAK, SBA and perhaps even the likes of PSP, SCK and ACV.
bb

AS has a golden opportunity, and an advantage over WN, to use it’s E-jets to server smaller and mid-sized CA cities like the ones you listed and which wouldn’t be practical for WN and their 737-only fleet.

And I assume you've noticed, Air', that SJC-SAN is increasing to 8 daily r/t on Sept 9 -- the same number of flights as SAN-SFO -- and SAN-SMF is going back up to 4 daily r/t on the same date! Still many less frequencies than WN but... that AS-advantage also includes F/C seating which doesn't exist on any of the WN flights in those markets!

I'm very happ!y to see AS heading toward "competitive" in those 3 highly lucrative intra-CA markets and I'm just waiting for them to have the fleet-size to also enter the SAN-OAK market.

bb


Yes, but I was referring specifically to the smaller markets like “ SBA and perhaps even the likes of PSP, SCK and ACV”, not to mention FAT, BFL, SBP, And maybe other new markets.
 
User avatar
piedmontf284000
Posts: 470
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:00 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 7:08 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
spinotter wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

Business travel is going to fall off a cliff this week and within 1-2 weeks there will be a minimal amount of essential only business travel left. Many conferences being canceled as well as a ton of internal corporate meetings. I think in a week or two most airlines will be forced to issue cancelation waivers and you’ll see a lot of spring break travel canceled as well. That’s going to leave the airlines extremely unclear what they’re going to do for summer after a brutal Mar/Apr/May.


Aren't you the optimist? But unfortunately, I think you are right, unless the trajectory of new infections can be controlled soon. It's odd to me that the infections should occur particularly in Iran and Italy, who would have thunk? So it makes every place suspect and people are not going to travel. Does anyone have Feb 19 vs. Feb 20 statistics worldwide - how about USA?


I am an optimist, but my point of view is based on data points I’ve seen just this weekend from several large companies I know. It’s going to get rough out there for the airlines. The best chance we have for the least economic disruption is to make aggressive moves now. We could see things like really close in cancellations and temporary fleet reductions by the middle of this week.


I think Spring break is fairly safe for the airlines. Most of these flights have already been booked months ago and I believe that if people are fearful of travelling this month, which I suspect a good portion of them are, then they will just walk away and eat the cost of the tickets. The airlines still get the $$$ no matter what. It is the advanced bookings past spring break that have the airlines scared sh!tless. I have spoken with several businessmen in different industries who have said the same thing...corporate travel is being axed or significantly reduced. The airlines are seeing this from the corporate contract bookings, and they are also seeing advanced booking for the summer way way down from years past. It is not just international travel either (although to be fair, currently that is the brunt of it), with news filtering out of the Seattle area of a second death and more exposures across the USA, we will soon see a dramatic drop in US domestic flying for the short term, and if the situation doesn't improve by April, I truly believe the summer will be lost for the airlines which will lead to massive layoffs. I certainly hope I am proven wrong.

enilria wrote:

******THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. If consumer sentiment does not change quickly on the virus I expect massive cuts coming as corporations are cutting travel left and right...



That is an understatement.
Enilria, I think you had best rest your fingers the next few days because they are going to be doing a whole lot of typing the next several weeks. BTW, thank as always for doing this week in and week out.

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