Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 901
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:53 am

OzarkD9S wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:

There is no One World partner in mainland China or Korea.
Cathay Pacific
Malaysia Airlines
Japan Airlines
Qantas
Qatar Airways


Not oneworld, but AA has a new and growing relationship with China Southern.


I did not know about that partnership. Thank you.

I assume that AA makes a profit on it's TPAC flights from DFW, and the problem is that it loses money flying from the heavily competitive LAX. Perhaps I am wrong! But it doesn't look China Southern flies to the Beijing or Shanghai from LAX. I don't know if the government of China specifies routes for the Chinese airlines.

Current flights from LAX to China and Korea
Cathay Pacific Hong Kong ONE WORLD
China Southern Airlines Guangzhou, Shenyang SKYTEAM until 1 January 2019. frequent flyer program partnership with AA i- March 2019.
Air China Beijing–Capital, Shenzhen STAR ALLIANCE
China Eastern Airlines Chengdu, Nanjing, Shanghai–Pudong SKYTEAM

Asiana Airlines Seoul–Incheon STAR ALLIANCE
Korean Air Seoul–Incheon SKYTEAM
 
tphuang
Posts: 5203
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:12 pm

piedmontf284000 wrote:
enilria wrote:

******THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. If consumer sentiment does not change quickly on the virus I expect massive cuts coming as corporations are cutting travel left and right...



That is an understatement.
Enilria, I think you had best rest your fingers the next few days because they are going to be doing a whole lot of typing the next several weeks. BTW, thank as always for doing this week in and week out.


Given that Kings county is seeing at a mini-outbreak and amazon has told its employees to not travel, I'm continually amazed by all these additional flights AS/DL are adding out of SEA to outdo each other. This is going to end spectacularly bad.
 
User avatar
gdg9
Posts: 1006
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2005 9:42 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:56 pm

Are the Y4 MLM-PDX,SEA,SMF flights vacation charters? I don't see them on the Volaris site or in OAG yet.
@dfwtower
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10252
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:00 pm

Web wrote:
enilria wrote:
**DL CMH-SEA JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0]
**DL DFW-SEA JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>3[0] AUG 0>3[0] SEP 0>3[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0]

Can't remember if these were previously announced, but good adds. Maybe a bit too much capacity for the CMH market with AS also serving the route, but we'll see.

Both of these are to be operated with the A220. The perfect aircraft for the routes IMO.

Good catch on the A220. They were loaded mid-week and got some attention.

pmanni1 wrote:
Web wrote:
enilria wrote:
**DL CMH-SEA JUN 0>0.8[0] JUL 0>1.0[0] AUG 0>1.0[0] SEP 0>1.0[0] OCT 0>1.0[0] NOV 0>1.0[0] DEC 0>1.0[0]
**DL DFW-SEA JUN 0>2[0] JUL 0>3[0] AUG 0>3[0] SEP 0>3[0] OCT 0>3[0] NOV 0>3[0] DEC 0>3[0]

Can't remember if these were previously announced, but good adds. Maybe a bit too much capacity for the CMH market with AS also serving the route, but we'll see.

Both of these are to be operated with the A220. The perfect aircraft for the routes IMO.

AS has only one daily flight at CMH and it's an evening departure. DL will be morning.

It's probably too much for the market, though. I expect a seasonalized schedule. They probably filed it daily in Fall/Winter to see what happens with bookings, but I bet they cut it a lot.
tphuang wrote:
enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
good morning enilria.

Thanks for this as usual. Interesting to see how quickly AS responded to DL's additions. There is more capacity to some of these midcon/transcon destinations out of SEA now than LAX/SFO.

Also, I'm surprised there hasn't been even more ICN cuts. I'd expect to see more out of KE. Just a matter of time before NRT/HND reductions start to come in with other airlines imo.

GM to you.

I think ICN and MXP are definite and then I'm expecting domestic as soon as the airlines run their simulations of the new booking/demand level which may take a week or two. I think it will impact April-June at a minimum, probably beyond that.

Totally agreed. The affects of these corporate travel cuts is going to lead to some interesting decisions for legacy airlines. Which is why I find delta sea adds to be quite ill timed. Shifting wide-bodies to domestic market is not sustainable. And decline in continental Europe travel demand is going to lead to cuts on Europe beyond just mxp.

These q1 earnings calls will be interesting to watch. Airlines stocks are going to get hammered if they don't fall in line with wall street expectations.

Airline stocks are already gutted. NK is down like 50% already and they don't even fly across the Ocean.

I'm expecting domestic capacity cuts and layoffs or forced vacation. Yes, the corporate bookings are drying up. Frankly, I think leisure too. Watch what happens with Disney. They need to install temperature scanners at their park entrance immediately. If they have an infection traced there and they close it's going to be air travel Armageddon. (BTW, I'm still skeptical this is thing is significantly more dangerous than the flu, but hardly matters any more).

Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
good morning enilria.

Thanks for this as usual. Interesting to see how quickly AS responded to DL's additions. There is more capacity to some of these midcon/transcon destinations out of SEA now than LAX/SFO.

Also, I'm surprised there hasn't been even more ICN cuts. I'd expect to see more out of KE. Just a matter of time before NRT/HND reductions start to come in with other airlines imo.

GM to you.

I think ICN and MXP are definite and then I'm expecting domestic as soon as the airlines run their simulations of the new booking/demand level which may take a week or two. I think it will impact April-June at a minimum, probably beyond that.


Thanks, as always, enilria.

I think we’re starting to see evidence of effects on short-haul flights that usually carry a lot of long-haul feed. AC, for instance, is running a crazy sale on YYZ transborder right now, and when I took a look at some seat maps while booking flights the number of seats sold was dreadful. I don’t know that it’s yet a big enough or universal enough effect to show up in any data (and the data lag anyway) but I do think the effects have started already.

Thanks

AA's move to allow no change fees on new bookings (after AS and B6) is VERY telling. That means bookings are at a standstill.
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
The next 4 weeks will be very telling as to what all unfolds and how this potentially impacts the summer schedule, whether directly through ongoing outbreaks and fear, or indirectly economic impact and recessionary fears.

These are the black swan event the industry fears.

While I think it is way over fear-mongered by the media, I agree this is headed toward a huge downturn.
Midwestindy wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Right now the airlines have got to be doing a ton of war games scenarios around capacity plans for summer 2020.

The challenge is that is takes months of lead time to develop the schedule and essentially fleet plans and crew scheduling were already set for what was supposed to be a record summer 2020 with everyone running at near red-line especially considering the MAX situation.

This is rapidly developing situation with the virus is rampant with some much fear and panic it’s hard for many to sort fact from fiction.

Q2 is going to be hit hard with the loss of TPAC, some TATL, and some domestic business travel. 80% of tickets are booked less than 5 weeks before departure, so there a lot of uncertainty how this will play out in the weeks ahead.

The next 4 weeks will be very telling as to what all unfolds and how this potentially impacts the summer schedule, whether directly through ongoing outbreaks and fear, or indirectly economic impact and recessionary fears.

These are the black swan event the industry fears.


While TPAC may be of concern to the US3, I think the real worry is what could happen to Domestic & TATL since we are coming up on peak season.

From my understanding, TPAC flying hasn't been that lucrative as of late for much of the US3, (except for UA) and given the MAX grounding they can now use some of the freed up widebody capacity to cover for the planes that are currently out of service.

I'm thinking the real problem here is the decline in domestic & potential loss of a significant chunk of TATL demand in peak season. Even if the virus were to be wiped out tomorrow, the hit to summer bookings will already have been felt.

Agreed. Domestic and TATL have been pulling the boat. TATL is falling like a rock I'm sure. Domestic is also in the crosshairs.
AirFiero wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Right now the airlines have got to be doing a ton of war games scenarios around capacity plans for summer 2020.

The challenge is that is takes months of lead time to develop the schedule and essentially fleet plans and crew scheduling were already set for what was supposed to be a record summer 2020 with everyone running at near red-line especially considering the MAX situation.

This is rapidly developing situation with the virus is rampant with some much fear and panic it’s hard for many to sort fact from fiction.

Q2 is going to be hit hard with the loss of TPAC, some TATL, and some domestic business travel. 80% of tickets are booked less than 5 weeks before departure, so there a lot of uncertainty how this will play out in the weeks ahead.

The next 4 weeks will be very telling as to what all unfolds and how this potentially impacts the summer schedule, whether directly through ongoing outbreaks and fear, or indirectly economic impact and recessionary fears.

These are the black swan event the industry fears.


While TPAC may be of concern to the US3, I think the real worry is what could happen to Domestic & TATL since we are coming up on peak season.

From my understanding, TPAC flying hasn't been that lucrative as of late for much of the US3, (except for UA) and given the MAX grounding they can now use some of the freed up widebody capacity to cover for the planes that are currently out of service.

I'm thinking the real problem here is the decline in domestic & potential loss of a significant chunk of TATL demand in peak season. Even if the virus were to be wiped out tomorrow, the hit to summer bookings will already have been felt.


The crazy irony is that the virus is maybe offsetting the Max loss of capacity.

I had the same thought. The MAX timing is now a good thing.

The first thing the airlines will do is park all the "backup" capacity in place. Planes that are almost at C Check. Old planes that were extended. Those will all be dropped very quickly.
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

**AA CLT-IPT AUG 0>0.8[0] SEP 0>1.9[0] OCT 0>1.8[0] NOV 0>1.9[0] DEC 0>1.9[0]
**AA IPT-PHL AUG 1.8>1.0[3] SEP 1.9>0[2] OCT 1.8>0[2] NOV 1.9>0[1.9] DEC 1.9>0[2.0]


This is interesting. Obviously there's no O&D between IPT and PHL, but it seems unusual to see this kind of overflying of a hub in favor of another for the airport's only service.

I would chalk this up to just how unpopular "beyond profitability" has become as a measure of success. I was having the same debate in a WN thread. Most airlines now realize that flying a really short leg with zero local traffic means the route basically can't make money because connect fares are too low if they are 100% of the plane. The problem in this case is the loss of directionality by just flying South and the yield hit on the connects because all the pax will now be going to Florida. Maybe they were before? I doubt it.
flyjoe wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

**AA CLT-IPT AUG 0>0.8[0] SEP 0>1.9[0] OCT 0>1.8[0] NOV 0>1.9[0] DEC 0>1.9[0]
**AA IPT-PHL AUG 1.8>1.0[3] SEP 1.9>0[2] OCT 1.8>0[2] NOV 1.9>0[1.9] DEC 1.9>0[2.0]


This is interesting. Obviously there's no O&D between IPT and PHL, but it seems unusual to see this kind of overflying of a hub in favor of another for the airport's only service.

More of a “last chance” to save commercial air service in IPT. US was going to end IPT a few years ago, but got a reprieve. I believe the growth of fracking saved it. The reliability of PHL made service between IPT and PHL inconsistent. CLT’s may be a nice option, especially with a lot of NE PA traffic headed to the southeast/FL. Plus it’s a larger gauge, going from a 145 to CR7, just in time for the Little League World Series.
https://www.sungazette.com/news/top-new ... tte-bound/

That's probably what it is. DL did the same with TOL right before it was axed.
hiflyeras wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
80% of tickets are booked less than 5 weeks before departure, so there a lot of uncertainty how this will play out in the weeks ahead..


I've been looking at loads for the next couple of weeks...they're holding up okay. But advance bookings have likely completely collapsed. I fear there will be major close-in schedule cuts by the world's airlines announced in the coming week and not just Asia. I read today that UA is saying China traffic is non-existent and travel to Asia in general is down 75%. Rachel Maddow reported on MSNBC the other night that Frankfurt airport was laying off thousands of workers.

I heard from insiders that since Wednesday net bookings for the U.S. carriers are 0 or negative netting travel deferrals and refunds. :o That's why AA/B6/AA are offering free changes. People are afraid to book. Imagine you book a ticket for $1500 and get a fever. You have to decide whether to waste the cancel cost or fly sick. Yeesh.
SFOtoORD wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Right now the airlines have got to be doing a ton of war games scenarios around capacity plans for summer 2020.

The challenge is that is takes months of lead time to develop the schedule and essentially fleet plans and crew scheduling were already set for what was supposed to be a record summer 2020 with everyone running at near red-line especially considering the MAX situation.

This is rapidly developing situation with the virus is rampant with some much fear and panic it’s hard for many to sort fact from fiction.

Q2 is going to be hit hard with the loss of TPAC, some TATL, and some domestic business travel. 80% of tickets are booked less than 5 weeks before departure, so there a lot of uncertainty how this will play out in the weeks ahead.

The next 4 weeks will be very telling as to what all unfolds and how this potentially impacts the summer schedule, whether directly through ongoing outbreaks and fear, or indirectly economic impact and recessionary fears.

These are the black swan event the industry fears.


Business travel is going to fall off a cliff this week and within 1-2 weeks there will be a minimal amount of essential only business travel left. Many conferences being canceled as well as a ton of internal corporate meetings. I think in a week or two most airlines will be forced to issue cancelation waivers and you’ll see a lot of spring break travel canceled as well. That’s going to leave the airlines extremely unclear what they’re going to do for summer after a brutal Mar/Apr/May.

I mean I feel like sky is falling, but I don't think you are far off. The question is what will reverse it and how soon can that happen? I still say that Summer temps are going to fix the outbreak problem.
piedmontf284000 wrote:
That is an understatement.
Enilria, I think you had best rest your fingers the next few days because they are going to be doing a whole lot of typing the next several weeks. BTW, thank as always for doing this week in and week out.

Thanks

I love this industry and its people, so I am horrified what appears to be coming for all of us, but it seems unavoidable in the short term. I do think Summer temps will stop the spread, but what economic damage by then?
tphuang wrote:
piedmontf284000 wrote:
enilria wrote:

******THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. If consumer sentiment does not change quickly on the virus I expect massive cuts coming as corporations are cutting travel left and right...



That is an understatement.
Enilria, I think you had best rest your fingers the next few days because they are going to be doing a whole lot of typing the next several weeks. BTW, thank as always for doing this week in and week out.


Given that Kings county is seeing at a mini-outbreak and amazon has told its employees to not travel, I'm continually amazed by all these additional flights AS/DL are adding out of SEA to outdo each other. This is going to end spectacularly bad.

I wouldn't be surprised if they unload these new flights. DL is usually an industry leader in most areas, but they have been a follower on Coronavirus. Last to cut China. Last or near last to cut Korea. Have not offered free change fees yet and AA/B6/AS have.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5203
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:22 pm

Big question for me is what happens after this? Let's say summer rolls around and the virus dies off. And let's say the economy recovers. Do companies that have been cut back on corporate travel bring it back or not? Do people get conservative with travel plan and just stay with leisure plans to the Carribeans or will they start going to Europe and Asia again at the same levels as pre-coronavirus?

For the latter, I would think Asia travel for leisure might be down for a while. Maybe you won't see as many people go to Italy or France this summer. Are US3 going to keep some of the Asia cuts for long term?

For the former, it seems to me that it might take a while for the corporate travel budget to come back to the same level, especially as these companies probably have to make some spending cuts to account for the reduced economic activity we are going to have (at least for multinationals that have operations in Asia and Europe). Do corporations get used to having people work attend meetings via video conference vs paying for air fares to meet in person? Are consulting firms able to continue charge their clients to pay for those weekly consultant travel?

I would think VFR travel will come back as soon as this is over.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 14476
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:30 pm

enilria wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
enilria wrote:

**AA CLT-IPT AUG 0>0.8[0] SEP 0>1.9[0] OCT 0>1.8[0] NOV 0>1.9[0] DEC 0>1.9[0]
**AA IPT-PHL AUG 1.8>1.0[3] SEP 1.9>0[2] OCT 1.8>0[2] NOV 1.9>0[1.9] DEC 1.9>0[2.0]


This is interesting. Obviously there's no O&D between IPT and PHL, but it seems unusual to see this kind of overflying of a hub in favor of another for the airport's only service.

I would chalk this up to just how unpopular "beyond profitability" has become as a measure of success. I was having the same debate in a WN thread. Most airlines now realize that flying a really short leg with zero local traffic means the route basically can't make money because connect fares are too low if they are 100% of the plane. The problem in this case is the loss of directionality by just flying South and the yield hit on the connects because all the pax will now be going to Florida. Maybe they were before? I doubt it.


It's not really that much of a loss of directionality, though, because of how far west CLT is. IPT-DFW is shorter through CLT than through PHL. So there's a serious loss of directionality to the northeast (but a lot of that traffic was likely driving anyway) and some loss of directionality to the midwest, but probably not enough to change booking habits significantly.

Of course, the fact that IPT-CLT O&D is almost nil is a separate issue, but 3 or 4 pax at, say, $500 a head actually makes a big difference on flights like these.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 793
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 4:49 pm

SFOtoORD wrote:
spinotter wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

Business travel is going to fall off a cliff this week and within 1-2 weeks there will be a minimal amount of essential only business travel left. Many conferences being canceled as well as a ton of internal corporate meetings. I think in a week or two most airlines will be forced to issue cancelation waivers and you’ll see a lot of spring break travel canceled as well. That’s going to leave the airlines extremely unclear what they’re going to do for summer after a brutal Mar/Apr/May.


Aren't you the optimist? But unfortunately, I think you are right, unless the trajectory of new infections can be controlled soon. It's odd to me that the infections should occur particularly in Iran and Italy, who would have thunk? So it makes every place suspect and people are not going to travel. Does anyone have Feb 19 vs. Feb 20 statistics worldwide - how about USA?


I am an optimist, but my point of view is based on data points I’ve seen just this weekend from several large companies I know. It’s going to get rough out there for the airlines. The best chance we have for the least economic disruption is to make aggressive moves now. We could see things like really close in cancellations and temporary fleet reductions by the middle of this week.


I am wanting to book BOS/NYC to AMS but am waiting for the low load factors to lead to a better price. You think it will happen soon? So far I haven't seen much of a tendency that way.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10252
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:46 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

This is interesting. Obviously there's no O&D between IPT and PHL, but it seems unusual to see this kind of overflying of a hub in favor of another for the airport's only service.

I would chalk this up to just how unpopular "beyond profitability" has become as a measure of success. I was having the same debate in a WN thread. Most airlines now realize that flying a really short leg with zero local traffic means the route basically can't make money because connect fares are too low if they are 100% of the plane. The problem in this case is the loss of directionality by just flying South and the yield hit on the connects because all the pax will now be going to Florida. Maybe they were before? I doubt it.


It's not really that much of a loss of directionality, though, because of how far west CLT is. IPT-DFW is shorter through CLT than through PHL. So there's a serious loss of directionality to the northeast (but a lot of that traffic was likely driving anyway) and some loss of directionality to the midwest, but probably not enough to change booking habits significantly.

Of course, the fact that IPT-CLT O&D is almost nil is a separate issue, but 3 or 4 pax at, say, $500 a head actually makes a big difference on flights like these.

There's also Europe which is terrible via Charlotte.

CLT is zero traffic now maybe, but once you add it there will be a market created. It will soak up people within 2 or 3 hours (driving) of CLT. As I said, I think the bigger risk is that CLT volume from the NE is basically low yield Florida traffic.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10252
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:49 pm

spinotter wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
spinotter wrote:

Aren't you the optimist? But unfortunately, I think you are right, unless the trajectory of new infections can be controlled soon. It's odd to me that the infections should occur particularly in Iran and Italy, who would have thunk? So it makes every place suspect and people are not going to travel. Does anyone have Feb 19 vs. Feb 20 statistics worldwide - how about USA?


I am an optimist, but my point of view is based on data points I’ve seen just this weekend from several large companies I know. It’s going to get rough out there for the airlines. The best chance we have for the least economic disruption is to make aggressive moves now. We could see things like really close in cancellations and temporary fleet reductions by the middle of this week.


I am wanting to book BOS/NYC to AMS but am waiting for the low load factors to lead to a better price. You think it will happen soon? So far I haven't seen much of a tendency that way.
Here's what will happen, IMHO.

Either a) bookings will snap back quickly once people are less afraid or b) they won't snap back and the airlines will cut capacity. If A happens there is no reason to discount. If B happens there is no point discounting until the new capacity level because the reaccom process is easier and cheaper for the airline with fewer people. It makes no sense to trash the fares, sell some seats, AND THEN reaccom everybody on to the flights that are left.

I think if things don't stabilize airlines are going to park all their old planes very quickly.
 
ScottB
Posts: 6993
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 1:25 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Mon Mar 02, 2020 5:54 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

This is interesting. Obviously there's no O&D between IPT and PHL, but it seems unusual to see this kind of overflying of a hub in favor of another for the airport's only service.

I would chalk this up to just how unpopular "beyond profitability" has become as a measure of success. I was having the same debate in a WN thread. Most airlines now realize that flying a really short leg with zero local traffic means the route basically can't make money because connect fares are too low if they are 100% of the plane. The problem in this case is the loss of directionality by just flying South and the yield hit on the connects because all the pax will now be going to Florida. Maybe they were before? I doubt it.


It's not really that much of a loss of directionality, though, because of how far west CLT is. IPT-DFW is shorter through CLT than through PHL. So there's a serious loss of directionality to the northeast (but a lot of that traffic was likely driving anyway) and some loss of directionality to the midwest, but probably not enough to change booking habits significantly.

Of course, the fact that IPT-CLT O&D is almost nil is a separate issue, but 3 or 4 pax at, say, $500 a head actually makes a big difference on flights like these.


I suspect that practically anyone flying to/from closer than BOS, RDU, or IND in the Northeast was driving, rather than paying US Airways American pricing and taking a gamble on a connection at PHL with a very limited schedule to IPT. The flights to PHL were probably heavy on Florida connections anyway since the business travel demand is minuscule. I'm not sure a longer segment on a high-cost RJ makes more sense, although there's some value in taking some congestion out of PHL.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1215
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:04 am

spinotter wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:
spinotter wrote:

Aren't you the optimist? But unfortunately, I think you are right, unless the trajectory of new infections can be controlled soon. It's odd to me that the infections should occur particularly in Iran and Italy, who would have thunk? So it makes every place suspect and people are not going to travel. Does anyone have Feb 19 vs. Feb 20 statistics worldwide - how about USA?


I am an optimist, but my point of view is based on data points I’ve seen just this weekend from several large companies I know. It’s going to get rough out there for the airlines. The best chance we have for the least economic disruption is to make aggressive moves now. We could see things like really close in cancellations and temporary fleet reductions by the middle of this week.


I am wanting to book BOS/NYC to AMS but am waiting for the low load factors to lead to a better price. You think it will happen soon? So far I haven't seen much of a tendency that way.


I agree w Enilria. I think airlines understand they can’t spur demand right now with fare sales so they’ll leave prices along and keep whatever yield they can get. Perhaps later when things are looking better on containment you’ll see a bunch of crazy fare sales.
 
User avatar
usdcaguy
Posts: 1522
Joined: Mon Jan 26, 2004 12:41 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:45 am

enilria wrote:
Mostly Schedule extension
Y4 AGU-MDW DEC 0>0.7[0.5]
Y4 BJX-DFW NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
Y4 BJX-FAT NOV 0>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
Y4 BJX-LAS NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.5[0]
Y4 BJX-LAX NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.7[0.6]
Y4 BJX-MDW NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.9[0.8]
Y4 BJX-OAK NOV 0>0.5[0.6] DEC 0>0.4[0.6]
Y4 BJX-ORD NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.4[0]
Y4 DEN-MEX DEC 0>0.5[0.7]
Y4 DFW-DGO NOV 0>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.3[0.4]
Y4 DFW-ZCL NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
Y4 FAT-GDL OCT 0.9>1.2[1.0] NOV 0>1.3[1.0] DEC 0>1.6[1.4]
Y4 FAT-MLM DEC 0>0.4[0.5]
Y4 GDL-IAH DEC 0>0.8[0.6]
Y4 GDL-JFK NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.7[0.5]
Y4 GDL-MCO NOV 0>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
Y4 GDL-MDW OCT 0.8>1.0[1.0] DEC 0>1.3[1.2]
Y4 GDL-OAK OCT 0.8>1.2[1.1] NOV 0>1.4[1.2] DEC 0>1.8[1.5]
Y4 GDL-ONT OCT 0.8>1.0[1.0] NOV 0>1.1[1.0] DEC 0>1.4[1.1]
Y4 GDL-ORD OCT 0.4>0.7[0.5] NOV 0>0.8[0.4] DEC 0>1.1[0.9]
Y4 GDL-PHX NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.7[0.6]
Y4 GDL-SJC OCT 1.0>1.3[1.3] DEC 0>1.7[1.6]
Y4 GDL-SMF JUN 1.0>1.3[1.1] JUL 1.1>1.4[1.3] AUG 1.1>1.3[1.2] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0] OCT 0.7>1.3[1.0] NOV 0>1.4[1.0] DEC 0>1.4[1.1]
Y4 LAX-MEX OCT 1.5>2[1.3] NOV 0>2[1.3] DEC 0>2[1.3]
Y4 LAX-MLM OCT 0.5>0.7[0.8] DEC 0>0.7[0.6]
Y4 LAX-OAX DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
Y4 MCO-MEX DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
Y4 MDW-MLM JUL 1.0>1.3[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.3[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0] OCT 0.8>1.3[1.0] NOV 0>1.3[1.0] DEC 0>1.5[1.6]
Y4 MEX-MIA NOV 0>0.3[0.6] DEC 0>0.3[0.6]
Y4 MEX-OAK DEC 0>0.5[0.6]
Y4 MEX-ORD OCT 0.9>1.2[1.0] NOV 0>1.1[1.0] DEC 0>1.2[1.0]
Y4 MLM-OAK DEC 0>0.5[0.6]
**Y4 MLM-PDX JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
**Y4 MLM-SEA JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
Y4 MLM-SJC DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
**Y4 MLM-SMF JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]


Transborder ASMs on Volaris were up a whopping 19% YOY, and they were very pleased with their 4Q19 results, which must be why we're seeing these schedule extensions. These markets are heavily VFR. Not sure I'd call that going after the gold, but that is their market.
 
User avatar
enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10252
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:47 pm

usdcaguy wrote:
enilria wrote:
Mostly Schedule extension
Y4 AGU-MDW DEC 0>0.7[0.5]
Y4 BJX-DFW NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
Y4 BJX-FAT NOV 0>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>0.4[0.3]
Y4 BJX-LAS NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.5[0]
Y4 BJX-LAX NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.7[0.6]
Y4 BJX-MDW NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.9[0.8]
Y4 BJX-OAK NOV 0>0.5[0.6] DEC 0>0.4[0.6]
Y4 BJX-ORD NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>0.4[0]
Y4 DEN-MEX DEC 0>0.5[0.7]
Y4 DFW-DGO NOV 0>0.3[0.4] DEC 0>0.3[0.4]
Y4 DFW-ZCL NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
Y4 FAT-GDL OCT 0.9>1.2[1.0] NOV 0>1.3[1.0] DEC 0>1.6[1.4]
Y4 FAT-MLM DEC 0>0.4[0.5]
Y4 GDL-IAH DEC 0>0.8[0.6]
Y4 GDL-JFK NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.7[0.5]
Y4 GDL-MCO NOV 0>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
Y4 GDL-MDW OCT 0.8>1.0[1.0] DEC 0>1.3[1.2]
Y4 GDL-OAK OCT 0.8>1.2[1.1] NOV 0>1.4[1.2] DEC 0>1.8[1.5]
Y4 GDL-ONT OCT 0.8>1.0[1.0] NOV 0>1.1[1.0] DEC 0>1.4[1.1]
Y4 GDL-ORD OCT 0.4>0.7[0.5] NOV 0>0.8[0.4] DEC 0>1.1[0.9]
Y4 GDL-PHX NOV 0>0.7[0.6] DEC 0>0.7[0.6]
Y4 GDL-SJC OCT 1.0>1.3[1.3] DEC 0>1.7[1.6]
Y4 GDL-SMF JUN 1.0>1.3[1.1] JUL 1.1>1.4[1.3] AUG 1.1>1.3[1.2] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0] OCT 0.7>1.3[1.0] NOV 0>1.4[1.0] DEC 0>1.4[1.1]
Y4 LAX-MEX OCT 1.5>2[1.3] NOV 0>2[1.3] DEC 0>2[1.3]
Y4 LAX-MLM OCT 0.5>0.7[0.8] DEC 0>0.7[0.6]
Y4 LAX-OAX DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
Y4 MCO-MEX DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
Y4 MDW-MLM JUL 1.0>1.3[1.0] AUG 1.0>1.3[1.0] SEP 1.0>1.3[1.0] OCT 0.8>1.3[1.0] NOV 0>1.3[1.0] DEC 0>1.5[1.6]
Y4 MEX-MIA NOV 0>0.3[0.6] DEC 0>0.3[0.6]
Y4 MEX-OAK DEC 0>0.5[0.6]
Y4 MEX-ORD OCT 0.9>1.2[1.0] NOV 0>1.1[1.0] DEC 0>1.2[1.0]
Y4 MLM-OAK DEC 0>0.5[0.6]
**Y4 MLM-PDX JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
**Y4 MLM-SEA JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]
Y4 MLM-SJC DEC 0>0.5[0.4]
**Y4 MLM-SMF JUL 0>0.3[0] AUG 0>0.3[0] SEP 0>0.3[0] OCT 0>0.3[0] NOV 0>0.3[0] DEC 0>0.3[0]


Transborder ASMs on Volaris were up a whopping 19% YOY, and they were very pleased with their 4Q19 results, which must be why we're seeing these schedule extensions. These markets are heavily VFR. Not sure I'd call that going after the gold, but that is their market.

It's interesting Y4 seems to be doing well and AM I guess is doing well. Nobody else in Mexico is doing well.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1215
Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2007 2:26 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:20 am

SFOtoORD wrote:
spinotter wrote:
SFOtoORD wrote:

Business travel is going to fall off a cliff this week and within 1-2 weeks there will be a minimal amount of essential only business travel left. Many conferences being canceled as well as a ton of internal corporate meetings. I think in a week or two most airlines will be forced to issue cancelation waivers and you’ll see a lot of spring break travel canceled as well. That’s going to leave the airlines extremely unclear what they’re going to do for summer after a brutal Mar/Apr/May.


Aren't you the optimist? But unfortunately, I think you are right, unless the trajectory of new infections can be controlled soon. It's odd to me that the infections should occur particularly in Iran and Italy, who would have thunk? So it makes every place suspect and people are not going to travel. Does anyone have Feb 19 vs. Feb 20 statistics worldwide - how about USA?


I am an optimist, but my point of view is based on data points I’ve seen just this weekend from several large companies I know. It’s going to get rough out there for the airlines. The best chance we have for the least economic disruption is to make aggressive moves now. We could see things like really close in cancellations and temporary fleet reductions by the middle of this week.


There are the close-in cuts.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavi ... story.html
 
silentbob
Posts: 1612
Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 1:26 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:43 am

ScottB wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
I would chalk this up to just how unpopular "beyond profitability" has become as a measure of success. I was having the same debate in a WN thread. Most airlines now realize that flying a really short leg with zero local traffic means the route basically can't make money because connect fares are too low if they are 100% of the plane. The problem in this case is the loss of directionality by just flying South and the yield hit on the connects because all the pax will now be going to Florida. Maybe they were before? I doubt it.


It's not really that much of a loss of directionality, though, because of how far west CLT is. IPT-DFW is shorter through CLT than through PHL. So there's a serious loss of directionality to the northeast (but a lot of that traffic was likely driving anyway) and some loss of directionality to the midwest, but probably not enough to change booking habits significantly.

Of course, the fact that IPT-CLT O&D is almost nil is a separate issue, but 3 or 4 pax at, say, $500 a head actually makes a big difference on flights like these.


I suspect that practically anyone flying to/from closer than BOS, RDU, or IND in the Northeast was driving, rather than paying US Airways American pricing and taking a gamble on a connection at PHL with a very limited schedule to IPT. The flights to PHL were probably heavy on Florida connections anyway since the business travel demand is minuscule. I'm not sure a longer segment on a high-cost RJ makes more sense, although there's some value in taking some congestion out of PHL.

I can't believe there is so much discussion of my old home town airport here, we're getting close to have more posts than people on an average flight there. In one of the posts, someone mentioned fracking saving service. That was true. Piedmont had already issued a notice to pull out and the EAS contract was awarded to Mesaba (I believe) flying to DTW. The airport authority objected and the award was reevaluated. In the interim, sales had increased due to the fracking boom and Piedmont continued flying without subsidy. I may be off a hair in timing, but that's my recollection.

O&D is irrelevant now and not likely to improve significantly after the change. The last time I saw the numbers, something like 80% of passengers connected to Florida with Vegas and various Texas connections for gas people covering the vast majority of the remainder. There is also a long simmering animus for Philadelphia in the IPT area based on distorted facts along with a healthy dose of dislike based entirely on skin tone. The local airport authority had offered an incentive to add an additional flight to CLT in recent years, but that was rejected. My assumption is that there wasn't an expectation of increased travel, and the guarantee wouldn't cover losses on flights to PHL induced by the new service. Being able to sell a business class seat or two (or more) per flight, along with the lower costs of operating from CLT, should help offset the additional fuel burn.
 
rabader
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2019 4:21 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:15 am

gdg9 wrote:
Are the Y4 MLM-PDX,SEA,SMF flights vacation charters? I don't see them on the Volaris site or in OAG yet.


They're not vacation charters. Usually, Volaris puts flights in the system 120 days before the starting date, they should be up soon.

enilria wrote:
It's interesting Y4 seems to be doing well and AM I guess is doing well. Nobody else in Mexico is doing well.


Y4 is doing good, and also VB is doing good.

I don't think AM is doing good, it has been really affected by the MAX grounding and pax numbers are going down.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aeromexi ... 00886.html

4O is a big mess.
 
GerRodriguez
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:27 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:09 am

Morelia – Portland OR eff 22JUN20 2 weekly A320neo
Y4358 MLM1619 – 1940PDX 32N 15
Y4359 PDX2110 – 0408+1MLM 32N 15

Morelia – Sacramento eff 24JUN20 2 weekly A320neo
Y4360 MLM2110 – 2350SMF 32N 36
Y4361 SMF0105 – 0715MLM 32N 47

Morelia – Seattle eff 25JUN20 2 weekly A320neo
Y4368 MLM1558 – 1930SEA 32N 47
Y4369 SEA2128 – 0500+1MLM 32N 47


https://www.routesonline.com/news/38...-in-june-2020/
 
GerRodriguez
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:27 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/1/2020:AA Moves IPT to CLT;DL Adds SEA-CMH/DFW;3M Adds CHS;Y4 Adds MLM-PDX/SEA/SMF

Tue Sep 01, 2020 5:16 pm

Hello good day.

Yesterday in the most recent AOC of Volaris the routes Morelia - Seattle - Morelia, and Oaxaca - Chicago O'Hare - Oaxaca already appear, we had already mentioned here at the beginning of the year the Morelia - Seattle route, but it was published until just yesterday in the last AOC.

I do not know the opening dates.


fuente:
https://www.fsmex.com/foros/index.php?t ... 46/page-73

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos