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JAMBOJET
Posts: 280
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 11:04 am

DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
onwFan wrote:
DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:

What is your source for Delta dropping its flight for PDX-LHR, as you say above? The news release from DL makes no reference to it, either. It sounds like you're just assuming that will happen? It might, but it might not. It wouldn't surprise me if VS moved one of its LHR segments down to PDX (supported with DL feed) and there would be a 787 rivalry between BA and VS.

Lot of capacity on this route for next year, and the falling yields will likely push someone out entirely, or make it a low-yield bloodbath for all who operate it.

What DL feed at PDX? DL destinations from PDX include SEA, LAX, LAS, SLC (which would have made sense for connections) and MSP, DTW, JFK and ATL; all of which have non-stop flights to LHR on VS/DL.


If DL does indeed drop the PDX-LHR flight, the DL passengers that used the DL flight regularly would still have an option to fly nonstop between PDX and LHR on VS, rather than switching to BA or connecting elsewhere.

VS doesn’t fly pdx-lhr.
 
JAMBOJET
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 1:52 pm

n7371f wrote:
To the folks who make the decisions at DAL, SEA-DFW on the 220 has always been part of the expansion since the day the order presentation was made to the BoD. It was one of the featured routes presented where DAL believed it could enter a highly competitive market and using the 220, still fly it profitably. Not sure what's hilarious about that. Nor petty.


invertir wrote:
The SEA-DFW is hilariously petty, but that said, it's on a was A220 so the unit economics will be incredible. Won't take too many people on the plane to pay for it.

So to be clear... you're saying that when you personally saw the confidential Board of Directors deck on the Delta CS-100 order back in ~March/April of 2016, SEA-DFW was one of the routes listed.

And that now... ~2-3 weeks after the AA/AS announcement, SEA-DFW is announced... and it's not related to AA/AS? Four years later... It sure is a huge coincidence if it wasn't a petty response.
SEA-DFW makes sense for a carrier with a hub in SEA, I get it. But so does LAX-ORD for any carrier with a hub in LAX (I mean... even AS flies LAX-ORD...), doesn't mean Delta was willing to compete there either. DFW-SEA is a pretty obvious response from Delta.
Who knows why Delta chose to launch two routes with little feed on either end to compete against two carriers on each route with a LOT of feed on each end: SEA-LHR and SEA-DFW. If this is the Delta response, two new routes where they'll have the worst feed and frequency on each end (yes, even LHR since VS is 2x only seasonally)... good luck to them.
 
Sightseer
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:30 pm

JAMBOJET wrote:
It sure is a huge coincidence if it wasn't a petty response.
SEA-DFW makes sense for a carrier with a hub in SEA, I get it. But so does LAX-ORD for any carrier with a hub in LAX

I think people have different definitions of petty. To me, AA going from 7 to 12 flights a day on MIA-MCO is a little petty. UA starting RDU-LGA was quite petty. NW and DFW-LGA was the definition of petty. But DL starting a "logical" route without going overboard on capacity doesn't quite rise to that level in my book, even though I'm sure the timing was influenced by AS joining OW.

That said, while SEA-DFW was a pretty large hole in the network, LAX-ORD is a much bigger one.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 2:54 pm

I'm hearing a lot about "DL winning" or "AS winning". You all realize winning means being a profitable company, right? Not lose money hand over fist until running out the other airline in a city that can support more than one carrier...

The worst part about these posts is it becomes a.net lore and then we have to deal with posters asserting that DL/AS intends to do X or Y, or their goal is to ______ when that is never what DL/AS said, it's what a bunch of random posters assert.

Everyone: the airlines are in it to make money. You don't have to have 75% market share to make money. Look at DL/B6 at JFK... pretend that is DL/AS at SEA. Airlines aren't petty... they may retaliate, tactically, but no airline that wants to stay in business is gonna add a route to piss off or own another carrier because that carrier hurt its feelings!!!

I'll add that DL is doing an amazing job now but they aren't immune to mistakes. They've made a lot of mistakes before and will make many more in the future. I'm seeing a lot of "DL is SOOOO profitable, of course they'll be successful in SEA!" I hope so, but no one is perfect...
 
JAMBOJET
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:01 pm

Sightseer wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
It sure is a huge coincidence if it wasn't a petty response.
SEA-DFW makes sense for a carrier with a hub in SEA, I get it. But so does LAX-ORD for any carrier with a hub in LAX

I think people have different definitions of petty. To me, AA going from 7 to 12 flights a day on MIA-MCO is a little petty. UA starting RDU-LGA was quite petty. NW and DFW-LGA was the definition of petty. But DL starting a "logical" route without going overboard on capacity doesn't quite rise to that level in my book, even though I'm sure the timing was influenced by AS joining OW.

That said, while SEA-DFW was a pretty large hole in the network, LAX-ORD is a much bigger one.

Fair point. Petty is probably the wrong word to describe the response.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 3:16 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I'm hearing a lot about "DL winning" or "AS winning". You all realize winning means being a profitable company, right? Not lose money hand over fist until running out the other airline in a city that can support more than one carrier...

The worst part about these posts is it becomes a.net lore and then we have to deal with posters asserting that DL/AS intends to do X or Y, or their goal is to ______ when that is never what DL/AS said, it's what a bunch of random posters assert.

Everyone: the airlines are in it to make money. You don't have to have 75% market share to make money. Look at DL/B6 at JFK... pretend that is DL/AS at SEA. Airlines aren't petty... they may retaliate, tactically, but no airline that wants to stay in business is gonna add a route to piss off or own another carrier because that carrier hurt its feelings!!!

I'll add that DL is doing an amazing job now but they aren't immune to mistakes. They've made a lot of mistakes before and will make many more in the future. I'm seeing a lot of "DL is SOOOO profitable, of course they'll be successful in SEA!" I hope so, but no one is perfect...


It’s amazing how often people lose sight of that.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Lootess
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:55 pm

I called this one, DL metal was coming back to route to retaliate. The good thing about DL is they don't need this route for connections unlike AA, that's what DL SEA-AMS is for.

flybry wrote:
Aceskywalker wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:

Which isn't going to happen


I’d argue that DL will overtake AS in the PNW. Like what it did to AA in JFK.

DL has a massive operation that can subsidize growing SEA into its vision of a Asian gateway, and can even justify TPAC out of PDX. SEA is home to the newest DL jets with better product than either AS or AA offer, and the A220 is a weapon that can bust into fortress hubs profitably. JVs make a strong contender for TPAC and TATL flying with KE and VS respectively.

AS arguably made a mistake getting embroiled in the bloodbath that is intra-Californian flying and buying VX, with issues in SFO. They are struggling with MAX groundings and a questionable future for Airbus jets in their roster. Alliances are dead; AS can only do so much with alliances with JL/AA/BA versus joint ventures. Arguably AS frequent fliers had better choices pre-OW (SQ, EK, KE, LATAM).



I agree. Delta will eventually overtake Alaska in Seattle much like Delta has done to AA at JFK.


Airliners.net is basically:

2013: "Delta will get ran out by Alaska"
2020: "Delta will get ran out by Alaska"

Meanwhile Delta's profit coffers continue to get larger, and now the most profitable airline in the world.

Beggars can't be choosers. If anything AS was ran out of SLC.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:13 pm

Lootess wrote:
I called this one, DL metal was coming back to route to retaliate. The good thing about DL is they don't need this route for connections unlike AA, that's what DL SEA-AMS is for.

flybry wrote:
Aceskywalker wrote:

I’d argue that DL will overtake AS in the PNW. Like what it did to AA in JFK.

DL has a massive operation that can subsidize growing SEA into its vision of a Asian gateway, and can even justify TPAC out of PDX. SEA is home to the newest DL jets with better product than either AS or AA offer, and the A220 is a weapon that can bust into fortress hubs profitably. JVs make a strong contender for TPAC and TATL flying with KE and VS respectively.

AS arguably made a mistake getting embroiled in the bloodbath that is intra-Californian flying and buying VX, with issues in SFO. They are struggling with MAX groundings and a questionable future for Airbus jets in their roster. Alliances are dead; AS can only do so much with alliances with JL/AA/BA versus joint ventures. Arguably AS frequent fliers had better choices pre-OW (SQ, EK, KE, LATAM).



I agree. Delta will eventually overtake Alaska in Seattle much like Delta has done to AA at JFK.


Airliners.net is basically:

2013: "Delta will get ran out by Alaska"
2020: "Delta will get ran out by Alaska"

Meanwhile Delta's profit coffers continue to get larger, and now the most profitable airline in the world.

Beggars can't be choosers. If anything AS was ran out of SLC.


Delta is definitely doing quite well and kudos to them. They arent going to get run out of SEA but there is a big difference between "Delta isnt going to get run out of SEA" to "Delta is going to over take Alaska in Seattle". The later isnt going to happen.
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spinotter
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:26 pm

questions wrote:
spinotter wrote:
invertir wrote:
The SEA-DFW is hilariously petty, but that said, it's on a A220 so the unit economics will be incredible. Won't take too many people on the plane to pay for it.


If DL is serious about establishing a growing hub at SEA, they will need to fly nonstop to DFW, IAH, IAD, MIA or FLL, and so on, just like the flights from their other main hubs.


Delta needs another strong TPAC partner.


At SEA/LAX/JFK/where else? So if I were choosing it would be CI or JV with MU - PVG will probably grow and grow (modulo Covid-19). What would your choice be?
 
LondonXtreme
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:33 pm

SEA-LHR is way over-served. I can't believe the number of daily departures of SEA-LHR will surpass SFO-LHR(6 daily),MIA-LHR(6 daily),IAD-LHR(6 daily).

I don't know what's the reason for BA to add 3rd daily SEA-LHR easily(even not maintain double daily during the off-peak season) instead of other cities like SFO, EWR, IAH, IAD, etc. where 3rd daily flight is long overdue.
 
questions
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 5:46 pm

LondonXtreme wrote:
SEA-LHR is way over-served. I can't believe the number of daily departures of SEA-LHR will surpass SFO-LHR(6 daily),MIA-LHR(6 daily),IAD-LHR(6 daily).

I don't know what's the reason for BA to add 3rd daily SEA-LHR easily(even not maintain double daily during the off-peak season) instead of other cities like SFO, EWR, IAH, IAD, etc. where 3rd daily flight is long overdue.


This is a good comparison point.

But number of flights/frequency doesn’t tell the whole story. How many seats are the airlines putting on LHR - SEA/SFO/MIA/IAD?
 
LondonXtreme
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:03 pm

questions wrote:
LondonXtreme wrote:
SEA-LHR is way over-served. I can't believe the number of daily departures of SEA-LHR will surpass SFO-LHR(6 daily),MIA-LHR(6 daily),IAD-LHR(6 daily).

I don't know what's the reason for BA to add 3rd daily SEA-LHR easily(even not maintain double daily during the off-peak season) instead of other cities like SFO, EWR, IAH, IAD, etc. where 3rd daily flight is long overdue.


This is a good comparison point.

But number of flights/frequency doesn’t tell the whole story. How many seats are the airlines putting on LHR - SEA/SFO/MIA/IAD?

Honestly, I don't know the number of seats. But BA do deploy the 747 and 380 on these routes.
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:03 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
Once United was forced into giving up the SEA-NRT & SEA-HKG routes? Nobody has of yet made them work on the US side. I do not understand why though. Those were premier routes to build on. Northwest made money on them and Delta should have as well. Maybe it was a lack of vision? Who Knows?


DL's been in the SEA-TYO market (NRT up until now, switching over to HND in a month) and doing well since the NW days.
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FSDan
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:09 pm

JAMBOJET wrote:
SEA-DFW makes sense for a carrier with a hub in SEA, I get it. But so does LAX-ORD for any carrier with a hub in LAX (I mean... even AS flies LAX-ORD...), doesn't mean Delta was willing to compete there either. DFW-SEA is a pretty obvious response from Delta.


I wouldn't be surprised to see DL flying LAX-ORD once they move into T5 at ORD and get access to a few more gates. Although they might need to wait for their LAX construction work to get further along as well, since I think they'll have a few gates rotating out of commission for a while... Like DFW, ORD is a really big outstation for DL (~60 peak daily departures, IIRC), and they serve it from all their hubs except LAX. They weren't afraid to jump into BOS-ORD or SEA-ORD, which are both plenty competitive.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
onwFan
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:18 pm

Lootess wrote:
I called this one, DL metal was coming back to route to retaliate. The good thing about DL is they don't need this route for connections unlike AA, that's what DL SEA-AMS is for.

flybry wrote:
Aceskywalker wrote:

I’d argue that DL will overtake AS in the PNW. Like what it did to AA in JFK.

DL has a massive operation that can subsidize growing SEA into its vision of a Asian gateway, and can even justify TPAC out of PDX. SEA is home to the newest DL jets with better product than either AS or AA offer, and the A220 is a weapon that can bust into fortress hubs profitably. JVs make a strong contender for TPAC and TATL flying with KE and VS respectively.

AS arguably made a mistake getting embroiled in the bloodbath that is intra-Californian flying and buying VX, with issues in SFO. They are struggling with MAX groundings and a questionable future for Airbus jets in their roster. Alliances are dead; AS can only do so much with alliances with JL/AA/BA versus joint ventures. Arguably AS frequent fliers had better choices pre-OW (SQ, EK, KE, LATAM).



I agree. Delta will eventually overtake Alaska in Seattle much like Delta has done to AA at JFK.


Airliners.net is basically:

2013: "Delta will get ran out by Alaska"
2020: "Delta will get ran out by Alaska"

Meanwhile Delta's profit coffers continue to get larger, and now the most profitable airline in the world.

Beggars can't be choosers. If anything AS was ran out of SLC.


The details are already there in what you just wrote: “DL doesn’t need the route for connections”. If they don’t need it for connections, do they need to run 3x daily on the route? I hardly think so- Someone asked me earlier for numbers and I don’t have passenger numbers to support this.

As far as I see it, this is an attempt by DL to have 2x daily year round service on the route. AA’s SEA-LHR is most probably year round, and BA will be running daily as well. DL wants to match the offer.

Since as you said, they are not going for connections, and as most people feel that 6x daily on the route doesn’t make sense; either VS’s seasonal 5x weekly is going away; or DL’s PDX-LHR is going away; or even both. I am not being pessimistic, this is just my pragmatic guess.

On a side note, I see PDX-CDG as a possibility for S21: they have a high chance of success on the route; plus they will then still have 2 flights to Europe from PDX.

I think these developments will overall be significantly beneficial to the PNW and a big change from everything being focused round LAX and SFO.
 
Prost
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:22 pm

I’m just a crew member based in Seattle. I’ve never heard anybody hinting at trying to dominate AS nor talking about AS with anything other than respect.
 
NYCVIE
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:40 pm

JAMBOJET wrote:
n7371f wrote:
To the folks who make the decisions at DAL, SEA-DFW on the 220 has always been part of the expansion since the day the order presentation was made to the BoD. It was one of the featured routes presented where DAL believed it could enter a highly competitive market and using the 220, still fly it profitably. Not sure what's hilarious about that. Nor petty.


invertir wrote:
The SEA-DFW is hilariously petty, but that said, it's on a was A220 so the unit economics will be incredible. Won't take too many people on the plane to pay for it.

So to be clear... you're saying that when you personally saw the confidential Board of Directors deck on the Delta CS-100 order back in ~March/April of 2016, SEA-DFW was one of the routes listed.

And that now... ~2-3 weeks after the AA/AS announcement, SEA-DFW is announced... and it's not related to AA/AS? Four years later... It sure is a huge coincidence if it wasn't a petty response.
SEA-DFW makes sense for a carrier with a hub in SEA, I get it. But so does LAX-ORD for any carrier with a hub in LAX (I mean... even AS flies LAX-ORD...), doesn't mean Delta was willing to compete there either. DFW-SEA is a pretty obvious response from Delta.
Who knows why Delta chose to launch two routes with little feed on either end to compete against two carriers on each route with a LOT of feed on each end: SEA-LHR and SEA-DFW. If this is the Delta response, two new routes where they'll have the worst feed and frequency on each end (yes, even LHR since VS is 2x only seasonally)... good luck to them.


What feed does AS have on the SEA end (relative to a passenger arriving from DFW or LHR) that DL doesn't have? You're making it sound like DL has a miniscule operation at SEA - they can flow a DFW-SEA-Alaska/PNW connection just as AS can and they can also flow DFW-SEA-Asia connections. Similarly from LHR they can flow LHR-SEA-Alaska/PNW/Hawaii/California connections just as AS would.

Petty would be if they came in here guns blazing. and the lower frequency indicates this is just a route they need to be in and not aimed at taking AS or AA out.
 
JAMBOJET
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 6:54 pm

NYCVIE wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
n7371f wrote:
To the folks who make the decisions at DAL, SEA-DFW on the 220 has always been part of the expansion since the day the order presentation was made to the BoD. It was one of the featured routes presented where DAL believed it could enter a highly competitive market and using the 220, still fly it profitably. Not sure what's hilarious about that. Nor petty.



So to be clear... you're saying that when you personally saw the confidential Board of Directors deck on the Delta CS-100 order back in ~March/April of 2016, SEA-DFW was one of the routes listed.

And that now... ~2-3 weeks after the AA/AS announcement, SEA-DFW is announced... and it's not related to AA/AS? Four years later... It sure is a huge coincidence if it wasn't a petty response.
SEA-DFW makes sense for a carrier with a hub in SEA, I get it. But so does LAX-ORD for any carrier with a hub in LAX (I mean... even AS flies LAX-ORD...), doesn't mean Delta was willing to compete there either. DFW-SEA is a pretty obvious response from Delta.
Who knows why Delta chose to launch two routes with little feed on either end to compete against two carriers on each route with a LOT of feed on each end: SEA-LHR and SEA-DFW. If this is the Delta response, two new routes where they'll have the worst feed and frequency on each end (yes, even LHR since VS is 2x only seasonally)... good luck to them.


What feed does AS have on the SEA end (relative to a passenger arriving from DFW or LHR) that DL doesn't have? You're making it sound like DL has a miniscule operation at SEA - they can flow a DFW-SEA-Alaska/PNW connection just as AS can and they can also flow DFW-SEA-Asia connections. Similarly from LHR they can flow LHR-SEA-Alaska/PNW/Hawaii/California connections just as AS would.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle–Tacoma_International_Airport
~Twice as many seats on AS vs DL and I’ll let you count the destination difference. Absolute destinations difference isn’t huge, but it’s still a difference. Seats to those destinations is bigger on Alaska easily.
 
FSDan
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:12 pm

JAMBOJET wrote:
NYCVIE wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
Who knows why Delta chose to launch two routes with little feed on either end to compete against two carriers on each route with a LOT of feed on each end: SEA-LHR and SEA-DFW.


What feed does AS have on the SEA end (relative to a passenger arriving from DFW or LHR) that DL doesn't have? You're making it sound like DL has a miniscule operation at SEA - they can flow a DFW-SEA-Alaska/PNW connection just as AS can and they can also flow DFW-SEA-Asia connections. Similarly from LHR they can flow LHR-SEA-Alaska/PNW/Hawaii/California connections just as AS would.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle–Tacoma_International_Airport
~Twice as many seats on AS vs DL and I’ll let you count the destination difference. Absolute destinations difference isn’t huge, but it’s still a difference. Seats to those destinations is bigger on Alaska easily.


Just because AS has more feed, it doesn't equate to DL having "little feed" as you suggested. Sure, AS serves more destinations in the PNW that would logically connect to DFW or LHR over SEA, but what's the combined PDEW of WRG/EAT/PUW/HLN, etc. to these destinations? DL serves FAI, ANC, GEG, PDX, BOI, SMF, Hawai'i, etc. from SEA, which is where the lion's share of connecting passengers would likely be originating/terminating.

Additionally, if in the future DL needs to route more LHR/DFW-bound connections over SEA in order to supplement the O&D traffic they're able to pick up, they have more options for accommodating other passengers who have been connecting on these flights over their other hubs like SLC and MSP. For example, say DL wants to free up 10 more daily seats on a particular BOI-SEA flight that connects to the new SEA-LHR service. In order to do that, they may need to route some passengers who have been flying BOI-SEA-BOS, BOI-SEA-SNA, etc. over MSP and SLC, but they have the flexibility to do so.
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luckyone
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:29 pm

Prost wrote:
I’m just a crew member based in Seattle. I’ve never heard anybody hinting at trying to dominate AS nor talking about AS with anything other than respect.

Don't be daft and disrupt this middle school lunch drama with reality!!
 
JAMBOJET
Posts: 280
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:41 pm

FSDan wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
NYCVIE wrote:

What feed does AS have on the SEA end (relative to a passenger arriving from DFW or LHR) that DL doesn't have? You're making it sound like DL has a miniscule operation at SEA - they can flow a DFW-SEA-Alaska/PNW connection just as AS can and they can also flow DFW-SEA-Asia connections. Similarly from LHR they can flow LHR-SEA-Alaska/PNW/Hawaii/California connections just as AS would.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle–Tacoma_International_Airport
~Twice as many seats on AS vs DL and I’ll let you count the destination difference. Absolute destinations difference isn’t huge, but it’s still a difference. Seats to those destinations is bigger on Alaska easily.


Just because AS has more feed, it doesn't equate to DL having "little feed" as you suggested. Sure, AS serves more destinations in the PNW that would logically connect to DFW or LHR over SEA, but what's the combined PDEW of WRG/EAT/PUW/HLN, etc. to these destinations? DL serves FAI, ANC, GEG, PDX, BOI, SMF, Hawai'i, etc. from SEA, which is where the lion's share of connecting passengers would likely be originating/terminating.

Additionally, if in the future DL needs to route more LHR/DFW-bound connections over SEA in order to supplement the O&D traffic they're able to pick up, they have more options for accommodating other passengers who have been connecting on these flights over their other hubs like SLC and MSP. For example, say DL wants to free up 10 more daily seats on a particular BOI-SEA flight that connects to the new SEA-LHR service. In order to do that, they may need to route some passengers who have been flying BOI-SEA-BOS, BOI-SEA-SNA, etc. over MSP and SLC, but they have the flexibility to do so.

While the “little” semantics game is just a blast to play, it’s clear that Delta’s feed is “little” compared to Number of seats to destinations from SEA, served by Delta or not, (Delta is half the market share of AS in Seattle) Vs As and certainly tiny compared to BA and AA at LHR and DFW, respectively.
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:58 pm

FSDan wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
NYCVIE wrote:

What feed does AS have on the SEA end (relative to a passenger arriving from DFW or LHR) that DL doesn't have? You're making it sound like DL has a miniscule operation at SEA - they can flow a DFW-SEA-Alaska/PNW connection just as AS can and they can also flow DFW-SEA-Asia connections. Similarly from LHR they can flow LHR-SEA-Alaska/PNW/Hawaii/California connections just as AS would.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle–Tacoma_International_Airport
~Twice as many seats on AS vs DL and I’ll let you count the destination difference. Absolute destinations difference isn’t huge, but it’s still a difference. Seats to those destinations is bigger on Alaska easily.


Just because AS has more feed, it doesn't equate to DL having "little feed" as you suggested. Sure, AS serves more destinations in the PNW that would logically connect to DFW or LHR over SEA, but what's the combined PDEW of WRG/EAT/PUW/HLN, etc. to these destinations? DL serves FAI, ANC, GEG, PDX, BOI, SMF, Hawai'i, etc. from SEA, which is where the lion's share of connecting passengers would likely be originating/terminating.

Additionally, if in the future DL needs to route more LHR/DFW-bound connections over SEA in order to supplement the O&D traffic they're able to pick up, they have more options for accommodating other passengers who have been connecting on these flights over their other hubs like SLC and MSP. For example, say DL wants to free up 10 more daily seats on a particular BOI-SEA flight that connects to the new SEA-LHR service. In order to do that, they may need to route some passengers who have been flying BOI-SEA-BOS, BOI-SEA-SNA, etc. over MSP and SLC, but they have the flexibility to do so.


On the domestic routes I've looked at, DL connects just as much as AS does. But those are low yielding types. The problem with DL is that they simply don't have enough pricing power at SEA. You need pricing power to chase O&D.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5193
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:07 am

tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle–Tacoma_International_Airport
~Twice as many seats on AS vs DL and I’ll let you count the destination difference. Absolute destinations difference isn’t huge, but it’s still a difference. Seats to those destinations is bigger on Alaska easily.


Just because AS has more feed, it doesn't equate to DL having "little feed" as you suggested. Sure, AS serves more destinations in the PNW that would logically connect to DFW or LHR over SEA, but what's the combined PDEW of WRG/EAT/PUW/HLN, etc. to these destinations? DL serves FAI, ANC, GEG, PDX, BOI, SMF, Hawai'i, etc. from SEA, which is where the lion's share of connecting passengers would likely be originating/terminating.

Additionally, if in the future DL needs to route more LHR/DFW-bound connections over SEA in order to supplement the O&D traffic they're able to pick up, they have more options for accommodating other passengers who have been connecting on these flights over their other hubs like SLC and MSP. For example, say DL wants to free up 10 more daily seats on a particular BOI-SEA flight that connects to the new SEA-LHR service. In order to do that, they may need to route some passengers who have been flying BOI-SEA-BOS, BOI-SEA-SNA, etc. over MSP and SLC, but they have the flexibility to do so.


On the domestic routes I've looked at, DL connects just as much as AS does. But those are low yielding types. The problem with DL is that they simply don't have enough pricing power at SEA. You need pricing power to chase O&D.


No...not even close. DL might have 40% to 50% of the connecting destinations as AS. AS, including SkyWest and Horizon, serves many more destinations from SEA than DL.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5064
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:15 am

wedgetail737 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:

Just because AS has more feed, it doesn't equate to DL having "little feed" as you suggested. Sure, AS serves more destinations in the PNW that would logically connect to DFW or LHR over SEA, but what's the combined PDEW of WRG/EAT/PUW/HLN, etc. to these destinations? DL serves FAI, ANC, GEG, PDX, BOI, SMF, Hawai'i, etc. from SEA, which is where the lion's share of connecting passengers would likely be originating/terminating.

Additionally, if in the future DL needs to route more LHR/DFW-bound connections over SEA in order to supplement the O&D traffic they're able to pick up, they have more options for accommodating other passengers who have been connecting on these flights over their other hubs like SLC and MSP. For example, say DL wants to free up 10 more daily seats on a particular BOI-SEA flight that connects to the new SEA-LHR service. In order to do that, they may need to route some passengers who have been flying BOI-SEA-BOS, BOI-SEA-SNA, etc. over MSP and SLC, but they have the flexibility to do so.


On the domestic routes I've looked at, DL connects just as much as AS does. But those are low yielding types. The problem with DL is that they simply don't have enough pricing power at SEA. You need pricing power to chase O&D.


No...not even close. DL might have 40% to 50% of the connecting destinations as AS. AS, including SkyWest and Horizon, serves many more destinations from SEA than DL.


I posted the connection data here viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1442129&start=50#p22057177
Feel free to take a look.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3270
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:26 am

JAMBOJET wrote:
FSDan wrote:
Just because AS has more feed, it doesn't equate to DL having "little feed" as you suggested. Sure, AS serves more destinations in the PNW that would logically connect to DFW or LHR over SEA, but what's the combined PDEW of WRG/EAT/PUW/HLN, etc. to these destinations? DL serves FAI, ANC, GEG, PDX, BOI, SMF, Hawai'i, etc. from SEA, which is where the lion's share of connecting passengers would likely be originating/terminating.

While the “little” semantics game is just a blast to play, it’s clear that Delta’s feed is “little” compared to Number of seats to destinations from SEA, served by Delta or not, (Delta is half the market share of AS in Seattle) Vs As and certainly tiny compared to BA and AA at LHR and DFW, respectively.


Again, why are you comparing DL's feed to AS's feed? It only matters whether they have enough feed in absolute numbers to contribute to their new SEA-DFW and SEA-LHR flights. It doesn't matter if AS has 6x the feed of DL if DL still has enough to fill the connecting seats they want to fill. Yield is another matter, as tphuang alluded to a few posts above, but yield doesn't appear to have anything to do with the argument you were making, which was that DL doesn't have enough feed at SEA. They have plenty.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3270
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:27 am

tphuang wrote:
On the domestic routes I've looked at, DL connects just as much as AS does. But those are low yielding types. The problem with DL is that they simply don't have enough pricing power at SEA. You need pricing power to chase O&D.


That's fair. My argument was simply regarding the volume of connections DL has available at SEA, not the yield quality of said connections.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5193
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:36 am

tphuang wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

On the domestic routes I've looked at, DL connects just as much as AS does. But those are low yielding types. The problem with DL is that they simply don't have enough pricing power at SEA. You need pricing power to chase O&D.


No...not even close. DL might have 40% to 50% of the connecting destinations as AS. AS, including SkyWest and Horizon, serves many more destinations from SEA than DL.


I posted the connection data here viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1442129&start=50#p22057177
Feel free to take a look.


I see. You compared the routes that AS and DL share to see what kind of connection traffic each airline gets. Yes...that's fair. We were talking about two different things, apparently.

I would assume DL would substantial domestic connections. Otherwise, I don't think DL would have multiple connection banks to the various cities. DL's SEA hub isn't set up like PDX was back in the late 1980's.
 
NYCVIE
Posts: 248
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2016 11:01 pm

Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:59 am

JAMBOJET wrote:
NYCVIE wrote:
JAMBOJET wrote:
So to be clear... you're saying that when you personally saw the confidential Board of Directors deck on the Delta CS-100 order back in ~March/April of 2016, SEA-DFW was one of the routes listed.

And that now... ~2-3 weeks after the AA/AS announcement, SEA-DFW is announced... and it's not related to AA/AS? Four years later... It sure is a huge coincidence if it wasn't a petty response.
SEA-DFW makes sense for a carrier with a hub in SEA, I get it. But so does LAX-ORD for any carrier with a hub in LAX (I mean... even AS flies LAX-ORD...), doesn't mean Delta was willing to compete there either. DFW-SEA is a pretty obvious response from Delta.
Who knows why Delta chose to launch two routes with little feed on either end to compete against two carriers on each route with a LOT of feed on each end: SEA-LHR and SEA-DFW. If this is the Delta response, two new routes where they'll have the worst feed and frequency on each end (yes, even LHR since VS is 2x only seasonally)... good luck to them.


What feed does AS have on the SEA end (relative to a passenger arriving from DFW or LHR) that DL doesn't have? You're making it sound like DL has a miniscule operation at SEA - they can flow a DFW-SEA-Alaska/PNW connection just as AS can and they can also flow DFW-SEA-Asia connections. Similarly from LHR they can flow LHR-SEA-Alaska/PNW/Hawaii/California connections just as AS would.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle–Tacoma_International_Airport
~Twice as many seats on AS vs DL and I’ll let you count the destination difference. Absolute destinations difference isn’t huge, but it’s still a difference. Seats to those destinations is bigger on Alaska easily.


Yes, I never said that DL even had a comparable number of SEATS to AS. If a passenger is flying LHR-SEA-PDX, for example, it wouldn't matter to them if AS had (hypothetically) 20x SEA-PDX and DL had 10x if both airlines could sell the connection. Why would they care if AS has hourly service if they aren't deciding between those flights? In that respect, DL does have the ability in SEA to feed the flights it needs to feed. Obviously AS will win on O&D.
 
questions
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: Delta Announces SEA-LHR For 2021

Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:58 am

Prost wrote:
I’m just a crew member based in Seattle. I’ve never heard anybody hinting at trying to dominate AS nor talking about AS with anything other than respect.


Thanks. This is probably pretty darn close to reality.

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