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Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:23 am

Folllowing on from viewtopic.php?t=1434793 , Airbus has already announced a production rate of 40 per year for A330neo in 2020 and now Bloomberg reports consideration of another rate cut:

Airbus SE is considering a cut in production of its A330neo jet after the biggest customer for the wide-body said a coronavirus-driven slump in travel had forced it to defer deliveries, according to people familiar with the matter.

The European planemaker is reviewing its production plans and may make a decision as soon as this month, the people said, asking not to be identified because the deliberations are private. In a filing last month, AirAsia X, the long haul unit of Malaysian low-cost carrier Air Asia Group, which represents about one-fourth of outstanding orders for the model, said it would postpone deliveries of its new A330neos.

Ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-deferral

In the AAX A330neo deferral thread the AAX Malaysia CEO was quoted as saying their thinking has shifted and they are finding A321 as a more suitable platform for their regional routes.

The article points out the Hainan take over by the provincial government and the Iran Air order on hold due to sanctions not likely to be lifted in the near term.

I am hopeful of a strong bounce back, but I also think 2020 will be not so great a year for A330neo.
Last edited by qf789 on Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MIflyer12
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:34 am

Do you think they'll cut production or build a bunch of white tails for a year?
 
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Francoflier
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:38 am

I don't think 2020 will be a great year for widebodies generally speaking, but the 330neo is always going to be the caboose on that train anyway.
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:50 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Do you think they'll cut production or build a bunch of white tails for a year?

I don't think they will build white tails. Airbus has been able to increase or decrease production on the A330 pretty flexibly over the years.
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:31 am

I guess we all remember the thread from several months ago touting how great things were for the A330 Neo. My how things can change so very quickly.

Maybe the exuberance should have been tempered with a quick look at the order book. Clearly Air Asia X is not exactly a blue chip customer. Even the initial order seemed ridiculously optimistic. Reminds me of the Amedeo order for the A380.

The thing is the A330 Neo is really a fine plane. I think along with the 787-10 ideal for TATL. My hope is Airbus can place the A330 Neo with more customers like DL. The A330 Neo deserves to sell, and I think eventually it will sell well. Just not in massive numbers with Air Asia X.
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:32 am

The whole travel and tourism industry will suffer in 2020 and aviation is already suffering from the Boeing 737 Max crisis in 2020. With Covid-19 spreading, the perfect storm has arrived!

Yes, it won't be a great year for the A330Neo and all widebodies. Airbus is probably grateful that its A220 and A320 won't be so badly affected due to the Boeing 737 Max fiasco.
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:39 am

Yeah with overall international traffic falling so much we can say fairly safely that 2020 is going to be an awful year for all widebody orderbooks. Let's hope that the recovery is quick.
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Scotron12
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:28 am

Of 341 total orders, 45 have been delivered as of 31/01/2020. Deduct the AAX, IRAN & HNA, the orders stand at 185.(WIKI)
 
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Momo1435
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:55 am

One year with strong orders doesn't just compensate the slow years before. It was telling how Airbus announced a reduction of the production instead of an increase at the back of such a good order year.

The Covid-19 issues have a direct, but short term effect on wide-body sales. In the mid term it might even be possitive for Airbus and Boeing if airlines, after parking a lot of older planes will have a quick need for new planes if trafic bounces back.

Anyway, do we really need a thread with such a title this early in the year?
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:59 am

ElroyJetson wrote:
I guess we all remember the thread from several months ago touting how great things were for the A330 Neo. My how things can change so very quickly.

Maybe the exuberance should have been tempered with a quick look at the order book. Clearly Air Asia X is not exactly a blue chip customer. Even the initial order seemed ridiculously optimistic. Reminds me of the Amedeo order for the A380.

The thing is the A330 Neo is really a fine plane. I think along with the 787-10 ideal for TATL. My hope is Airbus can place the A330 Neo with more customers like DL. The A330 Neo deserves to sell, and I think eventually it will sell well. Just not in massive numbers with Air Asia X.


Amedeo was a lessor who places a speculative order for A380s, AirAsiaX is an airline that operates A333s already, and AirAsia tends to cycle through aircraft quickly. While the number is optimistic I really don’t see a parallel given that AirAsia is an actual airline and not a lessor.
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:14 am

MrHMSH wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
I guess we all remember the thread from several months ago touting how great things were for the A330 Neo. My how things can change so very quickly.

Maybe the exuberance should have been tempered with a quick look at the order book. Clearly Air Asia X is not exactly a blue chip customer. Even the initial order seemed ridiculously optimistic. Reminds me of the Amedeo order for the A380.

The thing is the A330 Neo is really a fine plane. I think along with the 787-10 ideal for TATL. My hope is Airbus can place the A330 Neo with more customers like DL. The A330 Neo deserves to sell, and I think eventually it will sell well. Just not in massive numbers with Air Asia X.


Amedeo was a lessor who places a speculative order for A380s, AirAsiaX is an airline that operates A333s already, and AirAsia tends to cycle through aircraft quickly. While the number is optimistic I really don’t see a parallel given that AirAsia is an actual airline and not a lessor.


AirAsia X is not in good financial health at all. Look at their latest stunt of offering a year's flight pass for only $120. You think they can afford new widebodies?
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:16 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
I guess we all remember the thread from several months ago touting how great things were for the A330 Neo. My how things can change so very quickly.

Maybe the exuberance should have been tempered with a quick look at the order book. Clearly Air Asia X is not exactly a blue chip customer. Even the initial order seemed ridiculously optimistic. Reminds me of the Amedeo order for the A380.

The thing is the A330 Neo is really a fine plane. I think along with the 787-10 ideal for TATL. My hope is Airbus can place the A330 Neo with more customers like DL. The A330 Neo deserves to sell, and I think eventually it will sell well. Just not in massive numbers with Air Asia X.


Amedeo was a lessor who places a speculative order for A380s, AirAsiaX is an airline that operates A333s already, and AirAsia tends to cycle through aircraft quickly. While the number is optimistic I really don’t see a parallel given that AirAsia is an actual airline and not a lessor.


AirAsia X is not in good financial health at all. Look at their latest stunt of offering a year's flight pass for only $120. You think they can afford new widebodies?


An airline that can’t afford to buy new aircraft isn’t the same as a lessor that buys an aircraft with next to no lease market. Though no, I doubt they can afford these aircraft. Can only think that it looked rosier when they made the order?
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:32 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Of 341 total orders, 45 have been delivered as of 31/01/2020. Deduct the AAX, IRAN & HNA, the orders stand at 185.(WIKI)


Why deduct Iran? They will be delivered either starting next year or starting 2025.

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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:07 am

No airliner will have a good 2020. I expect both OEMs to end the year with a negative order book.
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:13 am

Considering the long lead time for aircraft production, the Corona virus may not be the cause of this decreased delivery rate. My guess is that the US tradewar and sanctions against the EU is a more likely candidate. I'm not only thinking about the 15% tariffs, but I think many of the 20 aircraft ordered by Iran should have been delivered this year.

But, "great year" or "not so great year" is very dependent on expectations. I think 40 aircraft per year, 3.5/month, is ok for the A330, and 2020 will possibly be another year where Airbus will outdeliver Boeing in widebody passenger jets (excluding freighter and military tankers). Airbus did so in 2019.

I like to compare the A330 to the 777, not because these aircraft are close competitors, but because they both are from the same era and have sold in similar numbers.

The A330 entered into service in the 1994, and in 1995 the 777 entered service. Total deliveries stand at 1455 for the A330 and at 1489 for the 777 (excluding, respectively, 38 and 180 freighters). Both have been significantly upgraded over the last decade, and have now been re-engined, given an extended wingspan and upgraded cabins etc.

My projection is that these two aircraft families will continue to be sold and delivered in similar numbers in this decade. The order backlog is similar and both have large orders that may not come to fulfillment. The A330 AirAsia X and Iran, and many of the the 777 Middle eastern orders. Certification of the 777X is also in limbo at the moment.
Last edited by reidar76 on Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:28 am

This will be the second full year of A330Neo deliveries. Airasia X (D7) was one of the launch customers and as such, they have early delivery slots. IIRC, D7 are scheduled to have 5 deliveries this year and 7-8 next year. Unless Airbus is able to persuade other customers to accept early deliveries, a production cut is inevitable. D7 postponed deliveries because it wanted to preserve cashflow and Airbus is doing the same when it is looking into production cuts.

In the long run, Covid-19 will have little or no effect on the overall delivery trend - I think many have already seen a 20 year delivery chart that Airbus published and likes to show when they talk about trends. Furthermore, airlines like Airasia and Airasia X have in the past sought aircraft from the leasing and secondary markets when there is suddenly a need to have more aircraft because they know that Airbus cannot directly respond so quickly to their demand for more deliveries. Aircraft manufacturing takes time to adjust to demand and Airbus is being prudent to consider cuts now because it will take a while to implement new production rates.
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:53 am

just in

Leeham wrote:
What is clear, however, is the A330 is no longer a trans-Atlantic aircraft. It can fly the frequent Pacific routes from US West Coast to Japan, Korea, and East China, which is not bad for an aircraft that started as a West-Europe to East-US mid-ranger


https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/05/does- ... more-32777

caveat is of course that this holds true for GC distances up to 5600nm with enough reserves for headwind and sub-optimal routing.

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RalXWB
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:05 am

It is no new revelation that there were no statements last year when the A330 was the best-selling WB and how can you talk about a bad year when it is only February? #longlivethedead
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:31 pm

RalXWB wrote:
It is no new revelation that there were no statements last year when the A330 was the best-selling WB and how can you talk about a bad year when it is only February? #longlivethedead


What are your thoughts on the news that Airbus is looking at another rate reduction? And is there a reason why people should not view this as a negative development for the A330neo program?
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:39 pm

There is a certain glee in some places at anything that can be seen as negative to the A330.

Like many I suspect this year will be a perfect storm to the travel industry. There will be many airline failures, volumes will shrink and strategies will change. Manufacturing aircraft is a long term process and rate flexibility is obviously going to lag these major upheavals.

I would not be at all surprised if there are rate changes galore this year at both major manufacturers.
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:41 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Do you think they'll cut production or build a bunch of white tails for a year?

I think the term “white tail“*) has become an urban myth in modern times of aircraft production since neither Boeing nor Airbus will start producing an aircraft if there is no assigned and paying customer. It must have been decades ago when Airbus produced some white tails (A300, IIRC). And IIRC, Boeing never produced any white tails at all. Not sure about McD, some DC-9’s maybe?


--------------------------
*) I am referring to white tails as aircraft that have been produced without an assigned customer. I am not referring to aircraft that have been rolled out of the final assembly line with a white tail because the airline, which ordered that airframe went belly-up.
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:55 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
It is no new revelation that there were no statements last year when the A330 was the best-selling WB and how can you talk about a bad year when it is only February? #longlivethedead


What are your thoughts on the news that Airbus is looking at another rate reduction? And is there a reason why people should not view this as a negative development for the A330neo program?


I think it is quite astounding to just pick one model and project doom and gloom (again) considering that we are at the beginning of a worldwide crisis. This will affect many models by both main manufacturers. #justsaying
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:57 pm

I think A330 is strongest in Asia and with leisure oriented carriers. Those are taking hits at his stage.
On the other hand, the China–United States trade war and China assembly line might help the A330.
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:09 pm

The A330neo has been popular Among airlines that aren’t the most financially stable. As a result of the customer base including a significant percentage of airlines with weaker finances, the A330neo production rate is probably going to be most effected by an industry downturn.
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:13 pm

keesje wrote:
I think A330 is strongest in Asia and with leisure oriented carriers. Those are taking hits at his stage.
On the other hand, the China–United States trade war and China assembly line might help the A330.


Umm, the only leisure oriented carriers in Asia that have ordered the A330neo are Air Asia X and Cebu Pacific. Are you considering Hainan and Garuda leisure oriented?
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:21 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think A330 is strongest in Asia and with leisure oriented carriers. Those are taking hits at his stage.
On the other hand, the China–United States trade war and China assembly line might help the A330.


Umm, the only leisure oriented carriers in Asia that have ordered the A330neo are Air Asia X and Cebu Pacific. Are you considering Hainan and Garuda leisure oriented?

Isn't Garuda luxury bike oriented?
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:33 pm

N14AZ wrote:
And IIRC, Boeing never produced any white tails at all. Not sure about McD, some DC-9’s maybe?

The final C-17 were proper "white tails", built without a customer on the assumption that somebody would eventually discover a need for their unique ability after the line had shut down.
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:06 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:

The thing is the A330 Neo is really a fine plane. I think along with the 787-10 ideal for TATL. My hope is Airbus can place the A330 Neo with more customers like DL. The A330 Neo deserves to sell, and I think eventually it will sell well. Just not in massive numbers with Air Asia X.


It certainly is a bloody good plane. I remember years and years ago when I flew on my first A332 and thinking that it was comfortable and quiet. About a month ago I flew SYD-NOU on Aircalin’s A339Neo and was impressed with the reduction in noise. It was certainly a hell of a lot quieter than the EK 77W that I flew from BNE-SIN a few days ago.

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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:46 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
keesje wrote:
I think A330 is strongest in Asia and with leisure oriented carriers. Those are taking hits at his stage.
On the other hand, the China–United States trade war and China assembly line might help the A330.

Umm, the only leisure oriented carriers in Asia that have ordered the A330neo are Air Asia X and Cebu Pacific. Are you considering Hainan and Garuda leisure oriented?

Citilink and Lion Group (Thai Lion already flies scheduled services) also has the A339.
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:59 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
The A330neo has been popular Among airlines that aren’t the most financially stable. As a result of the customer base including a significant percentage of airlines with weaker finances, the A330neo production rate is probably going to be most effected by an industry downturn.

There are the Air Asia Xs, then there are the Deltas, Virgin Atlantics and TAPs. Even GECAS ordered and they don't usually touch anything without GE engines. It certainly hasn't sold like hot cakes but few people before Airbus launched it when the program was rumoured really expected that.
Last edited by trex8 on Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
trex8
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:02 pm

trex8 wrote:
Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
The A330neo has been popular Among airlines that aren’t the most financially stable. As a result of the customer base including a significant percentage of airlines with weaker finances, the A330neo production rate is probably going to be most effected by an industry downturn.

There are the Air Asia Xs, then there are the Deltas, Virgin Atlantics and TAPs. Even GECAS ordered and they don't usually touch anything without GE engines. It certainly hasn't sold like hot cakes but few people before Airbus launched it when the program was rumoured really expected that.
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:17 pm

A350 eating into A330NEO sales?
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:27 pm

Elementalism wrote:
A350 eating into A330NEO sales?

I think the story very well may be "A321XLR eating in to A330neo sales". AAX Malaysia CEO has said as much. Just like 777 undermined 747 and 787 undermines 777, A321XLR will take some sales away from A330neo. It moves a large percentage of the people an A330neo moves on a large percentage of the AAX network with a lot lower trip cost and a lot less risk of flying empty seats around.
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:27 pm

Elementalism wrote:
A350 eating into A330NEO sales?

More like dubious orders clouding the horizon. And then there was a plane that mysteriously carried a motorbike on its delivery flight...
Last edited by jeffrey0032j on Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:28 pm

tommy1808 wrote:
just in

Leeham wrote:
What is clear, however, is the A330 is no longer a trans-Atlantic aircraft. It can fly the frequent Pacific routes from US West Coast to Japan, Korea, and East China, which is not bad for an aircraft that started as a West-Europe to East-US mid-ranger


https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/05/does- ... more-32777

caveat is of course that this holds true for GC distances up to 5600nm with enough reserves for headwind and sub-optimal routing.

Which is no longer the case with the recent certification of the smaller A338.....

Image
https://d3lcr32v2pp4l1.cloudfront.net/P ... 799560.jpg


Problem is, KU is postponing delivery until the 3rd Quarter. It may be the right-sized, right-priced aircraft in the face of this downturn and the COVID-19 scare...but airlines are not interested, nor are the other three holding LoI/MoU stepping up to take early delivery. :scratchchin:
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strfyr51
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:33 pm

Elementalism wrote:
A350 eating into A330NEO sales?

You know it's gotta be. Unless Airbus lowers the Price of the A330 in relation to the A350? The A330 sales might well stay low!
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:33 pm

Elementalism wrote:
A350 eating into A330NEO sales?


I think it goes the other way. The A330neo ate into A350 sales. How many A330neo customers had previously ordered the A350?
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
A350 eating into A330NEO sales?

I think the story very well may be "A321XLR eating in to A330neo sales". AAX Malaysia CEO has said as much. Just like 777 undermined 747 and 787 undermines 777, A321XLR will take some sales away from A330neo. It moves a large percentage of the people an A330neo moves on a large percentage of the AAX network with a lot lower trip cost and a lot less risk of flying empty seats around.


Also a combination of the competition and timing. The 787 family ate heavily into the replacement cycle for mid size aircraft by function of it being a versatile and cost effective aircraft and when it became available.

We're seeing the same thing with the 777X and a350. The a350 is an excellent 777 replacement and has hit the market at a good time.
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:45 pm

RalXWB wrote:
It is no new revelation that there were no statements last year when the A330 was the best-selling WB and how can you talk about a bad year when it is only February? #longlivethedead

Unfortunately I think the optimism of the great year thread will not carry into this year. The initial rate cut from 53/year to 40/year was an early bad sign, and now talk of a second rate cut appearing in a major media platform is another bad sign. The optimism was based on things that didn't happen like EK taking A339 and things that happened but now look less than solid such as large AAX and Hainan orders. But the product has a lot of resilience and should have a turn around. It's just that even in February it's hard to see it happening this year. #jerryrules

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
The A330neo has been popular Among airlines that aren’t the most financially stable. As a result of the customer base including a significant percentage of airlines with weaker finances, the A330neo production rate is probably going to be most effected by an industry downturn.

I think A330neo has a large percentage of leasing companies in the backlog to help those not able to finance a direct purchase. Yet I think this adds to the volatility in the production rate. The big leasing companies have a lot of different levers to pull when it comes to production slots. They can often jump from product to product and/or play manufacturers off against each other. It's a pain for the manufacturers to manage, but IMO Airbus has done very nicely in this regard, and has gotten its product into a lot of different environments. I'll leave the jokes about motor bikes or race cars or CEO's wives to other people.
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:46 pm

Revelation wrote:
It moves a large percentage of the people an A330neo moves on a large percentage of the AAX network with a lot lower trip cost and a lot less risk of flying empty seats around.

Maybe not on AAX's network but the A338 reduces both as well considerably.

https://www.flightglobal.com/airlines/k ... 98.article


strfyr51 wrote:
You know it's gotta be. Unless Airbus lowers the Price of the A330 in relation to the A350? The A330 sales might well stay low!

The A330-800Neo's list price is already ~$50M below the A359's. I don't know about the selling price though. Just saying.
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:01 pm

Antarius wrote:
Also a combination of the competition and timing. The 787 family ate heavily into the replacement cycle for mid size aircraft by function of it being a versatile and cost effective aircraft and when it became available.
We're seeing the same thing with the 777X and a350. The a350 is an excellent 777 replacement and has hit the market at a good time.

Right, but the given the thread is about the potential second rate cut to A330neo, if we look at its timing and competition it's a bit of a challenge, isn't it? A321XLR is a very popular product below it, buying one for the routes it can serve seems to be a no brainer, and you can more or less buy two for the price of one A339. Then above it we find state of the art clean sheets with advanced materials, aerodynamics and systems that the financiers and leasing companies love. I'd say A359 and 789 fall into the no brainer category. How much room does that leave for A330neo? It seems like many who will be replacing A330ceo may go bigger or smaller. In the short term the answer seems to be there's not a lot of room for A330neo, given the production rate cuts.

Devilfish wrote:
The A330-800Neo's list price is already ~$50M below the A359's. I don't know about the selling price though. Just saying.

IMO the A338 has the A319 problem. Good product in isolation, but more range than most customers need, and spend a bit more and you get A339 which has similar trip costs but more revenue potential, and avoid the resale issues of the less popular product. It may be perfect for Kuwait, but they may not be the typical customer.
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raylee67
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:13 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Clearly Air Asia X is not exactly a blue chip customer.

Airbus should never have been too serious about that order, not with that number of A330 anyway. Most people can see that there is nowhere AAX would have so many routes that require so many A330. If the order was for 20x 330NEO, that would have been more credible.

ElroyJetson wrote:
My hope is Airbus can place the A330 Neo with more customers like DL. The A330 Neo deserves to sell, and I think eventually it will sell well. Just not in massive numbers with Air Asia X.

Same here. I was always puzzled why Airbus was not able to make more inroads to regular Asian carriers. They fly a lot of A332 and A333. Many of them do not currently have adequate plan to replace them. Some, such as CX, apparently has no plan to buy 787, so A339 is the only choice to replace some of their aging A333. Others like KE, CI and PR are all viable candidates. CI and PR also don't have any 787 on order or in their fleets. Although KE has 787, it has the habit of splitting its fleet between the two manufacturers (e.g. it has ordered 737MAX and A321NEO at the same time). Also seems that it's not looking at 787-10 now. My gut feel is that they cannot agree on price. Airbus needs to be more flexible on that. To get 100x A339 order between these four airlines cannot be that difficult if the price and delivery schedule are right.
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AY LH OU SR BA FI
AA DL UA NW AC CP WS FL NK PD
CI NH SQ KA CX JL BR OZ TG KE CA CZ NZ JQ RS
 
Elementalism
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:45 pm

Revelation wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
A350 eating into A330NEO sales?

I think the story very well may be "A321XLR eating in to A330neo sales". AAX Malaysia CEO has said as much. Just like 777 undermined 747 and 787 undermines 777, A321XLR will take some sales away from A330neo. It moves a large percentage of the people an A330neo moves on a large percentage of the AAX network with a lot lower trip cost and a lot less risk of flying empty seats around.


Seems weird to me as they are two completely different classes of aircraft. Unless AA and others has been overbuying equipment for these routes?
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:55 pm

If 330neo is being squeezed out by 321xlr i consider that Airbus has no problem with that while 788 should have the same problem not mentioned any idea of 797.

330neo was a low cost derivate and I consider the investment soon paid back.

The whole wb segment seems to have troubles. They shall not be too big then they do not sell. They cannot be too small then the wb eating monster 321xlr eats have them for lunch.
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:56 pm

raylee67 wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Clearly Air Asia X is not exactly a blue chip customer.

Airbus should never have been too serious about that order, not with that number of A330 anyway. Most people can see that there is nowhere AAX would have so many routes that require so many A330. If the order was for 20x 330NEO, that would have been more credible.

ElroyJetson wrote:
My hope is Airbus can place the A330 Neo with more customers like DL. The A330 Neo deserves to sell, and I think eventually it will sell well. Just not in massive numbers with Air Asia X.

Same here. I was always puzzled why Airbus was not able to make more inroads to regular Asian carriers. They fly a lot of A332 and A333. Many of them do not currently have adequate plan to replace them. Some, such as CX, apparently has no plan to buy 787, so A339 is the only choice to replace some of their aging A333. Others like KE, CI and PR are all viable candidates. CI and PR also don't have any 787 on order or in their fleets. Although KE has 787, it has the habit of splitting its fleet between the two manufacturers (e.g. it has ordered 737MAX and A321NEO at the same time). Also seems that it's not looking at 787-10 now. My gut feel is that they cannot agree on price. Airbus needs to be more flexible on that. To get 100x A339 order between these four airlines cannot be that difficult if the price and delivery schedule are right.

I agree. Airbus could really use an Asian influencer like CX to sign up. Losing the EK LOI was a lost opportunity to influence others in the Middle East. In Europe, LH Group would be an excellent influencer to have on board. Hopefully a few blue chips will sign on and give the program more momentum. DL seems to be the most prominent name on the order books. Hopefully in time more will join.

Elementalism wrote:
Seems weird to me as they are two completely different classes of aircraft. Unless AA and others has been overbuying equipment for these routes?

Doesn't seem weird to me. Our "middle of the market" discussions were filled with all kinds of discussions of exactly where one could use A321XLR vs A338/9 vs 788/9 vs NMA vs all the speculative proposals that a.net members generated. I find it interesting that AAX Malaysia's CEO pretty much said their thinking has shifted and they're now willing to use A321XLR in roles they thought they'd be using A330s in. If anything, CV is showing that the idea of abusing a long haul wide body for 3-6 hour regional routes can be quite problematic during periodic air traffic down cycles. My observation is it's always the biggest planes that get parked first, and some times the big planes don't come back after being parked for a while.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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MIflyer12
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 5:59 pm

Elementalism wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
A350 eating into A330NEO sales?

I think the story very well may be "A321XLR eating in to A330neo sales". AAX Malaysia CEO has said as much. Just like 777 undermined 747 and 787 undermines 777, A321XLR will take some sales away from A330neo. It moves a large percentage of the people an A330neo moves on a large percentage of the AAX network with a lot lower trip cost and a lot less risk of flying empty seats around.


Seems weird to me as they are two completely different classes of aircraft. Unless AA and others has been overbuying equipment for these routes?


That's the widebody problem back 45 years to the 747SP - sometimes they're buying more seats than they want to get range. For a subset of intercontinental routes (the size of which we can argue), the 321XLR will work fine.
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:40 pm

Revelation wrote:
IMO the A338 has the A319 problem. Good product in isolation, but more range than most customers need, and spend a bit more and you get A339 which has similar trip costs but more revenue potential, and avoid the resale issues of the less popular product. It may be perfect for Kuwait, but they may not be the typical customer.

And here is where it gets more interesting. Arguably, the A338 could be more suitable for PR's 'envisioned' NA and European routes. Clearly, their LHR foray is not working for them even with the A359 in view of the ME3's impact on their market. Their COO's plaint about the "unsustainability" of expensive lease payments and the carrier's loses three-years running point to a cheaper solution for their "intended" fleet renewal...not the "keeping up with the Joneses" ULH model.


raylee67 wrote:
Others like KE, CI and PR are all viable candidates. CI and PR also don't have any 787 on order or in their fleets.

I'd venture to say that the A338 is the right equipment for MNL-SEA, MNL-CDG/FCO/FRA which PR could also cycle on regional runs. And when the 251T version comes, even CEB-LAX or MNL-SAN. If less fit airlines could sign up MoUs, a couple at PR for starters is not a huge risk...bespoke bikes not required...just a fantastic deal. :cheerful:
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:41 pm

Death of 330neo is very near now.
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:53 pm

imthedreamliner wrote:
Death of 330neo is very near now.


Seems a bit premature to say that. I myself don’t think it will sell too well but we will see.
 
mxaxai
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:57 pm

raylee67 wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Clearly Air Asia X is not exactly a blue chip customer.

Airbus should never have been too serious about that order, not with that number of A330 anyway. Most people can see that there is nowhere AAX would have so many routes that require so many A330. If the order was for 20x 330NEO, that would have been more credible.

ElroyJetson wrote:
My hope is Airbus can place the A330 Neo with more customers like DL. The A330 Neo deserves to sell, and I think eventually it will sell well. Just not in massive numbers with Air Asia X.

Same here. I was always puzzled why Airbus was not able to make more inroads to regular Asian carriers. They fly a lot of A332 and A333. Many of them do not currently have adequate plan to replace them. Some, such as CX, apparently has no plan to buy 787, so A339 is the only choice to replace some of their aging A333. Others like KE, CI and PR are all viable candidates. CI and PR also don't have any 787 on order or in their fleets. Although KE has 787, it has the habit of splitting its fleet between the two manufacturers (e.g. it has ordered 737MAX and A321NEO at the same time). Also seems that it's not looking at 787-10 now. My gut feel is that they cannot agree on price. Airbus needs to be more flexible on that. To get 100x A339 order between these four airlines cannot be that difficult if the price and delivery schedule are right.

Some, like CX, MH or TG simply aren't in a position right now to order anything. Others, like CI, PR or SQ already have the A359 in their fleet and are happy to abuse it on shorter routes.
Leeham has this interesting graph from Airbus:
Image
Image
The A321LR has the potential to push the A330 out of the 7-8 hour sweet spot. The 787 has worked on pushing even more 767 and 777-200 out of the market, so the only major fleet left to replace is the A330ceo. But many airlines are still happy to use their older A330 - the majority of A330-300 is still younger than 12 years - while fuel prices are low. The original A330-300 were pretty short-ranged and can all be replaced by A321LR (looking at range alone), yet don't fly the longer routes where the neo's efficiency advantage can be exploited fully.

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