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Revelation
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:22 pm

imthedreamliner wrote:
Death of 330neo is very near now.

No chance of death any time soon. We see programs like A380 and 747 limp along with many years between orders because the supply chain is up and running and there's enough orders to keep going. A330neo clearly has enough orders to keep going, and has good prospects for more.
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smartplane
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:58 pm

Revelation wrote:
imthedreamliner wrote:
Death of 330neo is very near now.

No chance of death any time soon. We see programs like A380 and 747 limp along with many years between orders because the supply chain is up and running and there's enough orders to keep going. A330neo clearly has enough orders to keep going, and has good prospects for more.

With already soft WB demand, and now covind-19, with the exception perhaps of the 767, every WB model will likely see negative orders in 2020/21. How this translates to production rates remains to be seen. Some customers, with the right financial inducements, may be encouraged to bring existing orders forward.

Challenge for Airbus is speeding up A350 under development enhancements, versus A330 which are ready to go, closing the capability gap between the 2 models.

Financiers and lessors are not keen to take on additional WB exposure for weak / marginal customers. The A330 family though is considered more on the cusp between NB/WB, without for example the administrative systems overhead compared to the 787.
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:05 pm

Devilfish wrote:
Revelation wrote:
IMO the A338 has the A319 problem. Good product in isolation, but more range than most customers need, and spend a bit more and you get A339 which has similar trip costs but more revenue potential, and avoid the resale issues of the less popular product. It may be perfect for Kuwait, but they may not be the typical customer.

And here is where it gets more interesting. Arguably, the A338 could be more suitable for PR's 'envisioned' NA and European routes. Clearly, their LHR foray is not working for them even with the A359 in view of the ME3's impact on their market. Their COO's plaint about the "unsustainability" of expensive lease payments and the carrier's loses three-years running point to a cheaper solution for their "intended" fleet renewal...not the "keeping up with the Joneses" ULH model.


raylee67 wrote:
Others like KE, CI and PR are all viable candidates. CI and PR also don't have any 787 on order or in their fleets.

I'd venture to say that the A338 is the right equipment for MNL-SEA, MNL-CDG/FCO/FRA which PR could also cycle on regional runs. And when the 251T version comes, even CEB-LAX or MNL-SAN. If less fit airlines could sign up MoUs, a couple at PR for starters is not a huge risk...bespoke bikes not required...just a fantastic deal. :cheerful:


You're still thinking that PR or anyone else is going to order the A338? It's frankly probably time to stop hoping that major carriers are going to buy A338s at this point. It's sold extremely poorly for a reason. If PR or other airlines wanted to buy the A338, they would have done so by now. Only three carriers worldwide have even ordered the plane, and the ones other than Kuwait have all ordered in tiny numbers. And I'm going to be very frank here: it's probably time to stop being an A338 fanboy, there's no point in bringing it up in every A330neo thread and even in threads that don't even talk about the A330neo in general.
Last edited by filipinoavgeek on Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:06 pm

Revelation wrote:
imthedreamliner wrote:
Death of 330neo is very near now.

No chance of death any time soon. We see programs like A380 and 747 limp along with many years between orders because the supply chain is up and running and there's enough orders to keep going. A330neo clearly has enough orders to keep going, and has good prospects for more.


While I don't think Airbus is gonna kill the A330neo just yet, the future doesn't look bright at this point, not as long as AirAsia X continues to struggle financially. If AirAsia X can get its act around, then the future will be much brighter. Either that or Delta places a bigger order, because as I see, Delta is the best best for being the type's savior.
 
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:52 pm

mxaxai wrote:
Others, like CI, PR or SQ already have the A359 in their fleet and are happy to abuse it on shorter routes.

With only six A359s in its fleet, I don't think PR is "happy" to abuse those on shorter runs...and highly doubt they'd exercise their options for six more just so they could do more of the same. PR has plenty of youngish A333s to use, and only deploys the A359 on said routes to increase utilization.


filipinoavgeek wrote:
You're still thinking that PR or anyone else is going to order the A338? It's frankly probably time to stop hoping that major carriers are going to buy A338s at this point.

Why not...PR is not in the pink of financial health right now. And where did I say "major carriers"?

filipinoavgeek wrote:
It's sold extremely poorly for a reason. If PR or other airlines wanted to buy the A338, they would have done so by now. Only three carriers worldwide have even ordered the plane, and the ones other than Kuwait have all ordered in tiny numbers.

And what reason could that be? Perhaps it's only lately that the virtues of the A338 are becoming more relevant.

filipinoavgeek wrote:
And I'm going to be very frank here: it's probably time to stop being an A338 fanboy, there's no point in bringing it up in every A330neo thread and even in threads that don't even talk about the A330neo in general.

What can I say...I'm incorrigible, and that derogatory term reflects more on you than me. You don't get to tell me what to post on these boards!
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Scotron12
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:56 pm

imthedreamliner wrote:
Death of 330neo is very near now.


Funniest post I've read. Care to tell that to Airbus?

Even better, tell it to TAP and DL. See what their response is.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:04 am

Revelation wrote:
imthedreamliner wrote:
Death of 330neo is very near now.

No chance of death any time soon. We see programs like A380 and 747 limp along with many years between orders because the supply chain is up and running and there's enough orders to keep going. A330neo clearly has enough orders to keep going, and has good prospects for more.


I'm not so sure. The coexistence deprives both of economies of scale, and don't you think the A330neo line could be better used for other things, like A32X?

Scotron12 wrote:
imthedreamliner wrote:
Death of 330neo is very near now.


Funniest post I've read. Care to tell that to Airbus?

Even better, tell it to TAP and DL. See what their response is.


Sure. 'We're going to need a really good deal on A350s and A321XLRs to replace those A330neo orders, then.' Done. Sixty or eighty orders from a narrow end-user customer base isn't necessarily enough to save widebody production. See A380. Leasing companies would be overjoyed to swap A330neo spots for A350s. They know they have a big risk of an orphan fleet.

In its very best year a carrier the size of TAP doesn't move the supply market one iota. They just don't spend enough.
 
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flee
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:52 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Revelation wrote:
imthedreamliner wrote:
Death of 330neo is very near now.

No chance of death any time soon. We see programs like A380 and 747 limp along with many years between orders because the supply chain is up and running and there's enough orders to keep going. A330neo clearly has enough orders to keep going, and has good prospects for more.

While I don't think Airbus is gonna kill the A330neo just yet, the future doesn't look bright at this point, not as long as AirAsia X continues to struggle financially. If AirAsia X can get its act around, then the future will be much brighter. Either that or Delta places a bigger order, because as I see, Delta is the best best for being the type's savior.

Whether Airasia X survives 2020 without going out of business is crucial. It is important to Airbus to help them make it through the year so that they can resume deliveries as soon as possible. Another important factor for the A330Neo to garner more customers is the continued low oil prices. Although the B787 and A350 are excellent aircraft, the acquisition/lease costs are significantly higher than that of the A330. And yes, many A330Ceo operators have yet to replace their older aircraft because these are still young.

Going forward, we can expect some of them to begin placing orders in the next 5 years. The A330Neo will sell slowly and steadily in small numbers to keep production alive. Just don't expect to see large (and dodgy) order numbers like those placed by Airasia X. Those days are gone....
 
Elementalism
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:42 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Elementalism wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I think the story very well may be "A321XLR eating in to A330neo sales". AAX Malaysia CEO has said as much. Just like 777 undermined 747 and 787 undermines 777, A321XLR will take some sales away from A330neo. It moves a large percentage of the people an A330neo moves on a large percentage of the AAX network with a lot lower trip cost and a lot less risk of flying empty seats around.


Seems weird to me as they are two completely different classes of aircraft. Unless AA and others has been overbuying equipment for these routes?


That's the widebody problem back 45 years to the 747SP - sometimes they're buying more seats than they want to get range. For a subset of intercontinental routes (the size of which we can argue), the 321XLR will work fine.


That makes sense. Didnt think of it that way. They would buy an A330 NEO for range vs payload. Thus overbuying where the A321XLR can now make their desired range.
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:48 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Revelation wrote:
imthedreamliner wrote:
Death of 330neo is very near now.

No chance of death any time soon. We see programs like A380 and 747 limp along with many years between orders because the supply chain is up and running and there's enough orders to keep going. A330neo clearly has enough orders to keep going, and has good prospects for more.

I'm not so sure. The coexistence deprives both of economies of scale, and don't you think the A330neo line could be better used for other things, like A32X?

I'm not sure why poor economy of scale will cause A330 death "very near now" yet we have 767 ticking along at 2/month (going up to 3/month) and 747 ticking along at one per two months. Airbus has the money to keep it around till the backlog approaches 0 with no new sales in sight. We see they're doing MTOW bumps to make it more attractive so I think they want it around. I think they see what others here keep mentioning, a slew of A330s to be replaced at some point in time. They certainly will keep the product alive until/unless it becomes clear they will not win any of that business.

As for A32x, Airbus is taking the A380 main FAL in TLS over to build A32x. I imagine that gives them all the space they need. We are being told that the supply chain is what is now holding back increased A32x production, not FAL capacity.
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9Patch
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:13 am

flee wrote:
Although the B787 and A350 are excellent aircraft, the acquisition/lease costs are significantly higher than that of the A330.


What is the acquisition/lease cost of a A330 compared to a 787 or a A350?
 
VV
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:37 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Do you think they'll cut production or build a bunch of white tails for a year?


That's a fair question considering the fact air travel could bounce back quite quickly toward the end of the year or next year.
 
Scotron12
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:49 am

VV wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Do you think they'll cut production or build a bunch of white tails for a year?


That's a fair question considering the fact air travel could bounce back quite quickly toward the end of the year or next year.


In the same Bloomberg article, Scherer said that after SARS, air traffic bounced back with in 8 months.
 
FrancisBegbie
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:45 am

As some others have mentioned above, I’m also not too optimistic on the impact the 338 is going to have. It has the 788/73G/319 size-cost problem. While the 332 had its niche (more range) for quite some time, once the 333 got more range companies in general stopped buying the 332.

As the 339 has enough range from the get-go....
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:59 am

Scotron12 wrote:
VV wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Do you think they'll cut production or build a bunch of white tails for a year?


That's a fair question considering the fact air travel could bounce back quite quickly toward the end of the year or next year.


In the same Bloomberg article, Scherer said that after SARS, air traffic bounced back with in 8 months.


SARS is a faulty comparison as the former mainly only affected APAC regions, which themselves composed far less of a share of worldwide traffic in '03 vs now. Not to mention the widespread travel restrictions in place now which didn't exist even during peak SARS outbreak.
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:48 am

imthedreamliner wrote:
Death of 330neo is very near now.

You also predicted a worldwide grounding of the A330 just over a year ago......
 
Armodeen
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:55 am

Airlines are gonna be massively hurting this year and probably the next. Rate cuts are gonna be happening across the board. The exception I guess will be the 320neo.
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 3:24 pm

Reuters has picked up the story, reports that Airbus is trying to use the more popular A321XLR to sell A330neos.

The response has included Airbus focusing on A330neo sales ahead of other models, pressing for Chinese sales in expectation of the country’s eventual economic recovery while also trying to tie orders to sales of its smaller A321XLR jets, which are in higher demand.

The European planemaker trimmed A330 output in January to a little more than three a month, from about four a month in 2019, and has not ruled out reversing that in 2021, people close to the company said. After that, the picture is much less clear, with doubts over dozens of existing orders as the coronavirus crisis deepens.


It also suggests the deal to sell 40 ships to Hainan was something of a gambit, with Airbus willing to ride through whatever restructuring Hainan may be getting itself into as long as they can get their foot into the door in China:

It appears to have gambled that Hainan would be bailed out or bought by stronger Chinese carriers, winning the A330neo a valuable place in their fleets, analysts said. HNA has asked for government help, but the outcome of the politically sensitive shake-up is far from clear.

Analysts say the cost of such deals can be high. One source said Airbus could lose as many as 23 orders for the A350 and five for the older A330ceo as part of the HNA restructuring.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/airbus- ... SL8N2AZ1EZ

All of this kind of feels like Macron giving China a horse to try to drum up business for the A380, but if it works it's fair game.
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 4:03 pm

I think people are taking someone with the username "imthedreamliner" a bit too seriously.
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 6:32 pm

9Patch wrote:
flee wrote:
Although the B787 and A350 are excellent aircraft, the acquisition/lease costs are significantly higher than that of the A330.


What is the acquisition/lease cost of a A330 compared to a 787 or a A350?


viewtopic.php?t=1440991


As posted prior, the below list contains estimated current market value (in USD) based on the oldest to newest airframes, along with sample monthly lease rates also based on oldest to newest airframes for many common models.

Pax

A330-200 – $14.0 - 80.0M, $140-610,000
A330-300 - $11.4 - 91.0M, $140-690,000
A350-900 - $104.5 - 154.0M, $800-1,100,000

B787-8 - $70.0 - 124.0M, $625-980,000
B787-9 - $99.0 - 146.0, $820-1,100,000
 
olle
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:34 pm

so in reality you get a 330 for 2/3 of the price of an 787.
 
smartplane
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 7:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
Reuters has picked up the story, reports that Airbus is trying to use the more popular A321XLR to sell A330neos.

No news here.

Packaging A320 family with A330/A350 order can trigger earlier A320 delivery slots for existing orders / larger credits for combined order. Boeing do the same with the 787/777 and 737.

Instead of retrospective credits being model specific, are order specific across model types.
 
ewt340
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:04 pm

I think looking at the market. A330neo would be a slow climber. A really slow one. It could reach 500 total orders. But it would happen overtime with lower production count rather than few big ones and a massive production cut at the end.
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:11 pm

olle wrote:
so in reality you get a 330 for 2/3 of the price of an 787.

An A330ceo, given no A330neo are listed.
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:22 pm

FrancisBegbie wrote:
As some others have mentioned above, I’m also not too optimistic on the impact the 338 is going to have. It has the 788/73G/319 size-cost problem. While the 332 had its niche (more range) for quite some time, once the 333 got more range companies in general stopped buying the 332.

As the 339 has enough range from the get-go....

I think it might be worse than that. More like the 736/A318 size problem.
As we celebrate mediocrity, all the boys upstairs want to see, how much you'll pay for what you used to get for free.
 
9Patch
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:06 pm

olle wrote:
so in reality you get a 330 for 2/3 of the price of an 787.

Apparently the customers think the price premium for the 787 is worth paying.
 
travelhound
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:30 pm

[threeid][/threeid]
RalXWB wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
RalXWB wrote:
It is no new revelation that there were no statements last year when the A330 was the best-selling WB and how can you talk about a bad year when it is only February? #longlivethedead


What are your thoughts on the news that Airbus is looking at another rate reduction? And is there a reason why people should not view this as a negative development for the A330neo program?


I think it is quite astounding to just pick one model and project doom and gloom (again) considering that we are at the beginning of a worldwide crisis. This will affect many models by both main manufacturers. #justsaying


Worldwide crisis! Why single out earth. This could affect the entire universe.

From a sales/prospects perspective the A330 probably has a relatively weak market position when compared to is peers, the 787, A350 (at the top end) and A321XLR (at the lower end).

Interestingly, if this “universal” crisis results in consolidation of the market place, the average size of an aircraft. (seats per plane) could see instant demand for larger aircraft in the 777 & A350 size bracket.

At this stage of the game all bets are off.
 
LurveBus
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:05 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:

You're still thinking that PR or anyone else is going to order the A338? It's frankly probably time to stop hoping that major carriers are going to buy A338s at this point. It's sold extremely poorly for a reason. If PR or other airlines wanted to buy the A338, they would have done so by now. Only three carriers worldwide have even ordered the plane, and the ones other than Kuwait have all ordered in tiny numbers. And I'm going to be very frank here: it's probably time to stop being an A338 fanboy, there's no point in bringing it up in every A330neo thread and even in threads that don't even talk about the A330neo in general.


Dude, this is an aviation forum. We like planes. Some more than others. Just as there are fans of the 717 and the 764, the A338 will have at least one cheerleader. Nothing wrong with that.

In any case, PR isn’t very likely to get the A338 as they’ve done the long-and-thin thing with A342s in the past and that didn’t work out.
 
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keesje
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:53 pm

The A330-800 is an amazing aircraft that will do very well.

Image leehamnews.com

:wink2:
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 1:58 pm

While it does not look good for the NEO, the 787 will also see orders cut soon and used frames will become available at much reduced costs when the crisis shows it´s full effects. And if widebody production goes back to a more normal state, I think the NEO can more easily survive at 2 frames per month than the 787 at 6.
 
ewt340
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:38 pm

I wonder, if they could fitted A330-800 with Trent 1000-E with 62,264 lbf (276.96 kN) rather than the current Trent 7000-72 with 324.0 kN / 72,834 lbf.

Both engines are extremely similar and came from the same manufacturer with similar specs. This would help -800 to be a bit more fuel efficient. Cause right now it's overpower.
 
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:43 pm

seahawk wrote:
While it does not look good for the NEO, the 787 will also see orders cut soon and used frames will become available at much reduced costs when the crisis shows it´s full effects. And if widebody production goes back to a more normal state, I think the NEO can more easily survive at 2 frames per month than the 787 at 6.

At rate 6, Boeing would simply move all production to the cheaper labor at CHS. It also reduces the number of Dreamlifter flights since a lot of parts flow CHS->PAE. I think they'd either mothball the PAE line, or tear it down to make room for future work. I don't think it will be a matter of survival for either. If it comes to that, Boeing still gets a large amount of its revenue from defense sales that are locked in, Airbus not so much.

ewt340 wrote:
I wonder, if they could fitted A330-800 with Trent 1000-E with 62,264 lbf (276.96 kN) rather than the current Trent 7000-72 with 324.0 kN / 72,834 lbf.

Both engines are extremely similar and came from the same manufacturer with similar specs. This would help -800 to be a bit more fuel efficient. Cause right now it's overpower.

Or, of course, a GEnX-2B as GE is said to be proposing.
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JohanTally
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:51 pm

seahawk wrote:
While it does not look good for the NEO, the 787 will also see orders cut soon and used frames will become available at much reduced costs when the crisis shows it´s full effects. And if widebody production goes back to a more normal state, I think the NEO can more easily survive at 2 frames per month than the 787 at 6.


If 787 production were at 6 frames a month Boeing could easily transfer to one line either PAE or CHS most likely CHS because of the 78J. It would free up space in Everett if the NMA ever gets launched. Also it's possible the Puget Sound area is becoming less appealing after having to give up the tax benefits because of the WTO battle.
 
JohanTally
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
While it does not look good for the NEO, the 787 will also see orders cut soon and used frames will become available at much reduced costs when the crisis shows it´s full effects. And if widebody production goes back to a more normal state, I think the NEO can more easily survive at 2 frames per month than the 787 at 6.

At rate 6, Boeing would simply move all production to the cheaper labor at CHS. It also reduces the number of Dreamlifter flights since a lot of parts flow CHS->PAE. I think they'd either mothball the PAE line, or tear it down to make room for future work. I don't think it will be a matter of survival for either. If it comes to that, Boeing still gets a large amount of its revenue from defense sales that are locked in, Airbus not so much.

You beat me to it
 
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seahawk
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:53 pm

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
While it does not look good for the NEO, the 787 will also see orders cut soon and used frames will become available at much reduced costs when the crisis shows it´s full effects. And if widebody production goes back to a more normal state, I think the NEO can more easily survive at 2 frames per month than the 787 at 6.

At rate 6, Boeing would simply move all production to the cheaper labor at CHS. It also reduces the number of Dreamlifter flights since a lot of parts flow CHS->PAE. I think they'd either mothball the PAE line, or tear it down to make room for future work. I don't think it will be a matter of survival for either. If it comes to that, Boeing still gets a large amount of its revenue from defense sales that are locked in, Airbus not so much.

ewt340 wrote:
I wonder, if they could fitted A330-800 with Trent 1000-E with 62,264 lbf (276.96 kN) rather than the current Trent 7000-72 with 324.0 kN / 72,834 lbf.

Both engines are extremely similar and came from the same manufacturer with similar specs. This would help -800 to be a bit more fuel efficient. Cause right now it's overpower.

Or, of course, a GEnX-2B as GE is said to be proposing.


I did not mean to say that Boeing as a company would get into trouble with a reduced 787 production, Boeing is way too big to fail and way too good to fail.
 
Scotron12
Posts: 430
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:58 pm

JohanTally wrote:
seahawk wrote:
While it does not look good for the NEO, the 787 will also see orders cut soon and used frames will become available at much reduced costs when the crisis shows it´s full effects. And if widebody production goes back to a more normal state, I think the NEO can more easily survive at 2 frames per month than the 787 at 6.


If 787 production were at 6 frames a month Boeing could easily transfer to one line either PAE or CHS most likely CHS because of the 78J. It would free up space in Everett if the NMA ever gets launched. Also it's possible the Puget Sound area is becoming less appealing after having to give up the tax benefits because of the WTO battle.


Of course, if...and it's a big if, Boeing did so, I don't think there would be many people happy in Washington State!
 
JohanTally
Posts: 79
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 3:58 pm

seahawk wrote:
Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
While it does not look good for the NEO, the 787 will also see orders cut soon and used frames will become available at much reduced costs when the crisis shows it´s full effects. And if widebody production goes back to a more normal state, I think the NEO can more easily survive at 2 frames per month than the 787 at 6.

At rate 6, Boeing would simply move all production to the cheaper labor at CHS. It also reduces the number of Dreamlifter flights since a lot of parts flow CHS->PAE. I think they'd either mothball the PAE line, or tear it down to make room for future work. I don't think it will be a matter of survival for either. If it comes to that, Boeing still gets a large amount of its revenue from defense sales that are locked in, Airbus not so much.

ewt340 wrote:
I wonder, if they could fitted A330-800 with Trent 1000-E with 62,264 lbf (276.96 kN) rather than the current Trent 7000-72 with 324.0 kN / 72,834 lbf.

Both engines are extremely similar and came from the same manufacturer with similar specs. This would help -800 to be a bit more fuel efficient. Cause right now it's overpower.

Or, of course, a GEnX-2B as GE is said to be proposing.


I did not mean to say that Boeing as a company would get into trouble with a reduced 787 production, Boeing is way too big to fail and way too good to fail.


At 6 per month it would be difficult to zero out the remaining deferred production costs but the new airplanes rolling off the line should still have healthy profit margins.
 
trex8
Posts: 5440
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:00 pm

ewt340 wrote:
I wonder, if they could fitted A330-800 with Trent 1000-E with 62,264 lbf (276.96 kN) rather than the current Trent 7000-72 with 324.0 kN / 72,834 lbf.

Both engines are extremely similar and came from the same manufacturer with similar specs. This would help -800 to be a bit more fuel efficient. Cause right now it's overpower.

Trent 1000 doesn't have enough bleed air which the A330 needs unlike the 787 which needs minimal bleed air. You can always paper derate an engine if needed.

In another thread it was said that the problem the 1000 is having while the XWB wasn't having issue with is because the 1000 installation in the 787 is like running a Formula 1 car with a V12 to its limits while the XWB is like running a big V8 sedately in a regular car. The 7000 installation in the A330neo is probably closer to the XWB situation than the 1000 which should hopefully let it avoid some of the 1000s issues..
 
JohanTally
Posts: 79
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:06 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
seahawk wrote:
While it does not look good for the NEO, the 787 will also see orders cut soon and used frames will become available at much reduced costs when the crisis shows it´s full effects. And if widebody production goes back to a more normal state, I think the NEO can more easily survive at 2 frames per month than the 787 at 6.


If 787 production were at 6 frames a month Boeing could easily transfer to one line either PAE or CHS most likely CHS because of the 78J. It would free up space in Everett if the NMA ever gets launched. Also it's possible the Puget Sound area is becoming less appealing after having to give up the tax benefits because of the WTO battle.


Of course, if...and it's a big if, Boeing did so, I don't think there would be many people happy in Washington State!


It would be very unfortunate for the Puget Sound area but hopefully Boeing would have a plan for future work. What happens between Renton and Everett is remarkable but you know in the back of every executives mind they would prefer less unionized labor and better year round weather.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:25 pm

seahawk wrote:
I did not mean to say that Boeing as a company would get into trouble with a reduced 787 production, Boeing is way too big to fail and way too good to fail.

Yes, it points out the issue with some wordings used here. There's a big difference between break even and survive. Yes, I realize that eventually something that loses money must end. But I think we underestimate what makes money (i.e. 747 is still ticking over at one per two months and this would not be happening if it was not breaking even) and why companies might decide to keep producing a product that is making no money or very little money (A380 will end up breaking even on production for two out of its ~15 years of production yet Airbus kept it going for prestige and with some sliver of hope that someone would buy more).

JohanTally wrote:
At 6 per month it would be difficult to zero out the remaining deferred production costs but the new airplanes rolling off the line should still have healthy profit margins.

The remaining deferred production costs can be zeroed out whenever Boeing chooses to do so, it's a debt owed by Boeing to Boeing. A really terrible financial year such as this one due to CV and MAX might present a good opportunity to write off some or all of the deferred costs. We quite often see companies use years where they know they are going to take a huge hit to dump unperforming assets so the following years can do better.
Last edited by Revelation on Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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jeffrey0032j
Posts: 701
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:25 pm

seahawk wrote:
While it does not look good for the NEO, the 787 will also see orders cut soon and used frames will become available at much reduced costs when the crisis shows it´s full effects. And if widebody production goes back to a more normal state, I think the NEO can more easily survive at 2 frames per month than the 787 at 6.

I would worry more for the 350 at 10 before worrying about 787 at 6-10 or 330 at any. The 350 has a more solid customer base than the 330 but still contains dubious or potentially non performing orders.
 
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Polot
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:31 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
seahawk wrote:
While it does not look good for the NEO, the 787 will also see orders cut soon and used frames will become available at much reduced costs when the crisis shows it´s full effects. And if widebody production goes back to a more normal state, I think the NEO can more easily survive at 2 frames per month than the 787 at 6.

I would worry more for the 350 at 10 before worrying about 787 at 6-10 or 330 at any. The 350 has a more solid customer base than the 330 but still contains dubious or potentially non performing orders.

I think it’s pretty understood although not stated that if the 787 goes down to 6 the A350 certainly would not be staying at 10.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:35 pm

ewt340 wrote:
I wonder, if they could fitted A330-800 with Trent 1000-E with 62,264 lbf (276.96 kN) rather than the current Trent 7000-72 with 324.0 kN / 72,834 lbf.

Both engines are extremely similar and came from the same manufacturer with similar specs. This would help -800 to be a bit more fuel efficient. Cause right now it's overpower.


A de-rated T7000 would make more sense, like the substantially de-rated TXWB fitted to JAL's 359s
 
Weatherwatcher1
Posts: 425
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:37 pm

keesje wrote:
The A330-800 is an amazing aircraft that will do very well.

Image leehamnews.com

:wink2:


Leeham might think so, but it’s not a good sign when there are only 15 of them on order and the biggest order (8) is currently being investigated for potentially being influenced by bribes:

In Kuwait, a three-member parliamentary committee has been tasked with reviewing Airbus orders and is to submit a report of its findings to the National Assembly within three months, KUNA reported.

Kuwait’s anti-corruption authority said on Feb. 6 it was open to receiving any information about alleged bribes paid to secure Airbus plane orders involving Kuwaiti parties.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airb ... SKBN20D1O7

Scott Hamilton May think the A330-800 is a great plane, but it’s not a good sign if Airbus has to bribe airlines to order it. Kuwait’s first delivery is due in November, the outcome of the bribery investigation could call that into question, so I can see Airbus needing to reduce production rate

https://simpleflying.com/kuwait-airways-rare-a330neo/
 
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Revelation
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Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:39 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
I would worry more for the 350 at 10 before worrying about 787 at 6-10 or 330 at any. The 350 has a more solid customer base than the 330 but still contains dubious or potentially non performing orders.

Yeah, like those United orders! :stirthepot:
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 701
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:40 pm

Revelation wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
I would worry more for the 350 at 10 before worrying about 787 at 6-10 or 330 at any. The 350 has a more solid customer base than the 330 but still contains dubious or potentially non performing orders.

Yeah, like those United orders! :stirthepot:

Looking more at Starlux.
 
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seahawk
Posts: 9339
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:57 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
seahawk wrote:
While it does not look good for the NEO, the 787 will also see orders cut soon and used frames will become available at much reduced costs when the crisis shows it´s full effects. And if widebody production goes back to a more normal state, I think the NEO can more easily survive at 2 frames per month than the 787 at 6.

I would worry more for the 350 at 10 before worrying about 787 at 6-10 or 330 at any. The 350 has a more solid customer base than the 330 but still contains dubious or potentially non performing orders.


Obviously the A350 would also suffer badly, no airliner would be escaping this downturn, if the Corona virus leads into long recession in the industry.
 
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kanban
Posts: 4015
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Re: A330neo - 2020 not so great a year?

Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:08 pm

[quote="N14AZ"]
I think the term “white tail“*) has become an urban myth in modern times of aircraft production since neither Boeing nor Airbus will start producing an aircraft if there is no assigned and paying customer. It must have been decades ago when Airbus produced some white tails (A300, IIRC). And IIRC, Boeing never produced any white tails at all. Not sure about McD, some DC-9’s maybe?

Boeing produced white tails on the 727, and 737 lines. most were 727's
 
JohanTally
Posts: 79
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
seahawk wrote:
I did not mean to say that Boeing as a company would get into trouble with a reduced 787 production, Boeing is way too big to fail and way too good to fail.

Yes, it points out the issue with some wordings used here. There's a big difference between break even and survive. Yes, I realize that eventually something that loses money must end. But I think we underestimate what makes money (i.e. 747 is still ticking over at one per two months and this would not be happening if it was not breaking even) and why companies might decide to keep producing a product that is making no money or very little money (A380 will end up breaking even on production for two out of its ~15 years of production yet Airbus kept it going for prestige and with some sliver of hope that someone would buy more).

JohanTally wrote:
At 6 per month it would be difficult to zero out the remaining deferred production costs but the new airplanes rolling off the line should still have healthy profit margins.

The remaining deferred production costs can be zeroed out whenever Boeing chooses to do so, it's a debt owed by Boeing to Boeing. A really terrible financial year such as this one due to CV and MAX might present a good opportunity to write off some or all of the deferred costs. We quite often see companies use years where they know they are going to take a huge hit to dump unperforming assets so the following years can do better.


Good point this might be the year to take the big hit and put missteps behind them
 
Strato2
Posts: 503
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2016 3:52 pm

Re: Airbus considers A330neo production rate cut

Sat Mar 07, 2020 7:58 pm

Revelation wrote:
I did not mean to say that Boeing as a company would get into trouble with a reduced 787 production, Boeing is way too big to fail and way too good to fail.

Yes, it points out the issue with some wordings used here. There's a big difference between break even and survive. Yes, I realize that eventually something that loses money must end. But I think we underestimate what makes money (i.e. 747 is still ticking over at one per two months and this would not be happening if it was not breaking even) and why companies might decide to keep producing a product that is making no money or very little money (A380 will end up breaking even on production for two out of its ~15 years of production yet Airbus kept it going for prestige and with some sliver of hope that someone would buy more).
[/quote]

LOL. If you think Boeing is breaking even at one for two months I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell to you. You talk about the Superjumbo but it is the "queen of the skies" that is prestige and nothing but it with those tiny production numbers. That and the fact that the plane has been adopted as the next transport for the MAGA crowd will make Boeing hang on to this plane for a long time. In contrast Airbus has it's customer obligations to fulfill. They cannot flood the customers with product they can't absorb. Nothing to do with prestige.

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