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ITSTours
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:07 pm

jetwet1 wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
The government will bailout Korean Air if such thing happens. No question marks. See how much the government assisted in Asiana case.



I have to wonder if it came down to KE shutting down, could/would the Korean government try to persuade one of the big conglomerates (Hyundai) to step in ?


I think the government will give the Cho family a second chance.
As the previous government let Hanjin Shipping liquidate for not a good reason.

But another conglomerate buying KE is an option, definitely.
 
lavalampluva
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Tue Mar 10, 2020 6:45 pm

ITSTours wrote:
jetwet1 wrote:
ITSTours wrote:
The government will bailout Korean Air if such thing happens. No question marks. See how much the government assisted in Asiana case.



I have to wonder if it came down to KE shutting down, could/would the Korean government try to persuade one of the big conglomerates (Hyundai) to step in ?


I think the government will give the Cho family a second chance.
As the previous government let Hanjin Shipping liquidate for not a good reason.

But another conglomerate buying KE is an option, definitely.

It's not the airlines fault for the virus. But timing and location sucks. 2020 is going to be a rough year for airlines.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
bennett123
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:25 pm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51818492

Survival threat
Earlier on Tuesday, Korean Air warned the coronavirus outbreak could threaten its survival.
In a memo sent to employees, Korean Air's president Woo Kee-hong said the airline could not predict how long the crisis would last.
"But if the situation continues for a longer period, we may reach the threshold where we cannot guarantee the company's survival," he said in the memo, which was seen by Reuters news agency.


Clearly nothing is off the table.
 
FSDan
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:35 pm

gregn21 wrote:
I can only imagine if AA stepped in and saved KE. Ultimate jab back and DL.


AA's got far bigger worries right now than jabbing back at DL... AA's debt is the highest of any of the US3.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
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spinotter
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:59 pm

enilria wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
I also would expect DL to do a cash injection or guarantee loans to secure KE.


Let the Korean government spend its resources. DL is quickly going to see what its greater-than 20% equity stakes in AM and VS does to its profit & loss statement.

While I’m sure it’s tempting to use this situation to sink their talons deeper into KE, they should really worry about their own balance sheet.


Sink their talons? Guy, you do seem to look at the world from a Darwinian angle.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:06 pm

zeke wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Bingo.


I still dont understand your original post. Later today they should post last years results.

The passenger side across the region is soft at the moment, I don’t think it is fair to say it is just demand related or just one airline, there are a lot of travel restrictions in place which is impacting all airlines.

The freight side of the business has seen growth as there is less passenger belly space available.

I didn't say CX WILL shut down. I was saying they have the best chance because they were hit particularly hard in their home market due to protests and kicked while they were down by the new virus.
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tphuang
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:11 pm

FSDan wrote:
gregn21 wrote:
I can only imagine if AA stepped in and saved KE. Ultimate jab back and DL.


AA's got far bigger worries right now than jabbing back at DL... AA's debt is the highest of any of the US3.

exactly, AA's goal at this point is to avoid chapter 11.
 
aerokiwi
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:55 pm

jeffrey0032j wrote:
aerokiwi wrote:
Won't the virus be sufficiently widespread within a few weeks that travel restrictions will become almost pointless?

If that happens, the world will be in deep trouble, you will have more things to worry about other than deciding whether to lift travel restrictions or not.


Yeah no kidding. But this is a thread about a specific airline on an aviation based website. Governments don't just shut everything down and ignore the longer term. Decisions will still be made. And for the global economy to bounce back, aviation restrictions will eventually be lifted. And I suspect it will be sooner rather than later.
 
gregn21
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:58 pm

tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:
gregn21 wrote:
I can only imagine if AA stepped in and saved KE. Ultimate jab back and DL.


AA's got far bigger worries right now than jabbing back at DL... AA's debt is the highest of any of the US3.

exactly, AA's goal at this point is to avoid chapter 11.


Yes, and I’m sure that’s exactly why they’re launching SEA-BLR. Sarcasm aside, I think someone (not necessarily AA) will jump at the opportunity to save and benefit from KE should they really be in a near death situation.
 
NYCVIE
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:36 pm

gregn21 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:

AA's got far bigger worries right now than jabbing back at DL... AA's debt is the highest of any of the US3.

exactly, AA's goal at this point is to avoid chapter 11.


Yes, and I’m sure that’s exactly why they’re launching SEA-BLR. Sarcasm aside, I think someone (not necessarily AA) will jump at the opportunity to save and benefit from KE should they really be in a near death situation.


It won't be an airline and it most definitely won't be AA. All airlines at this point are seeing massive capacity reductions across the board. DL, KE's equity partner, has a ton of cash on hand and they'll be able to ride out the storm most likely, but this is not the time to be making big investments in any airline, much less one like KE who was losing money even before the virus and is most likely hemorrhaging now. And it won't be AA who at this point needs to worry about saving themselves since they'll be the first one's in Chapter 11 if this drags on even to the end of this year. I'm 100% sure, however, that the gov't will not let KE fail.
 
dampfnudel
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:54 pm

I would be really surprised if the Korean government didn’t bail them out. KE is the premiere airline of the country. Unless that doesn’t matter as much as it used to back in the day (AZ watch out).
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SeoulIncheon
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:19 am

Surviving this corona outbreak will be more difficult for airlines in Korea because they have been suffering from so-called anti-Japan activism which hurt their revenues from Japanese routes in 2019. KE probably was the airline that was hurt the least - because KE was less reliant to Japan routes than anyone else in Korea.

The current government is not in good terms with the Cho family/KE in general so should the worst happen chances government will likely let KE fail. But with HDC contemplating cancelling Asiana acquisition (the deal not closed yet) it might be that KE becomes the last airline remaining in Korea... I also wonder what KGCI (the activist hedge fund that went almost all-in to Hanjin KAL - the parent group) is thinking now...
 
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rjsampson
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:22 am

lightsaber wrote:

Agreed, but DL had so much cash they either invested or were at risk of a hostile takeover.


lightsaber: Can you elaborate on how DL was at risk of a hostile takeover? I can't find any suggestions that DL was at such a risk. Hostile takeover from whom? How could they have possibly hoped to succeed in such an action?
"..your eyes will be forever turned skyward, for there.." yeah we know the DaVinci quote. Unfortunately, we're grounded :(
 
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zeke
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:42 am

TWA772LR wrote:
I didn't say CX WILL shut down. I was saying they have the best chance because they were hit particularly hard in their home market due to protests and kicked while they were down by the new virus.


I still dont understand the basis for such comments, while CX has been effected, they have nowhere near been effected as bad as any of the mainland Chinese airlines, the various Korean airlines, airlines in Italy, Middle east, Norwegian, etc. There is a very long list of airlines that were already borderline before this happened,
Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
 
FSDan
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:21 am

gregn21 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
AA's goal at this point is to avoid chapter 11.


Yes, and I’m sure that’s exactly why they’re launching SEA-BLR.


SEA-BLR is far from certain at this point. I hope it does launch because it's a really cool route idea, but if travel is still down in a few months it will be especially-low-hanging fruit to cut.
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Velocity7
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:24 am

BuildingMyBento wrote:

There's an obscene amount of flights to/from/within the RoK (check: Jeju-anywhere, pre/post-epidemic).

They're just another country not doing their part for climate change.


Crikey, you are right! I just did a quick look on FR24 for Arrivals into CJU for the next few hours - over 100 hundred flights, I stopped counting and all mostly on 737/320 equipment - surely more wide bodies would be appropriate? I mean you've got 2 x KE flights arriving within 5 minutes of each other, both from Seoul so it can't be a frequency thing
 
Ciel
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:26 am

As some have mentioned a bit before, I would be surprised if Korean Air goes bankrupt before Asiana. I hope no one will lose their jobs.
 
Noshow
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:48 am

Korea is some important country generating a lot of air travel demand. After corona gets sorted out, which is a global issue, it will be good to go again. An airline like Korean Air has it's market and will be sustainable. I agree I very much like their onboard product.
 
SeoulIncheon
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:39 am

Velocity7 wrote:
BuildingMyBento wrote:

There's an obscene amount of flights to/from/within the RoK (check: Jeju-anywhere, pre/post-epidemic).

They're just another country not doing their part for climate change.


Crikey, you are right! I just did a quick look on FR24 for Arrivals into CJU for the next few hours - over 100 hundred flights, I stopped counting and all mostly on 737/320 equipment - surely more wide bodies would be appropriate? I mean you've got 2 x KE flights arriving within 5 minutes of each other, both from Seoul so it can't be a frequency thing


KE/OZ puts some widebodies on the route - sometimes even a 744 but I doubt any modern widebody will be able to withstand extreme high cycle from flying GMP-CJU. For LCCs CJU is only market that can sustain widebodies so they better not go widebodies.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:42 am

The South Korean government and its politicians will likely give some kind of bailout at the least to preserve the 1000's of jobs at risk if KL were to fail, including taking partial ownership. I am quite sure many businesses in South Korea would support it and for sure Boeing and Airbus would very much not want to lose a customer so they will put pressure on the politicians there too.
 
Lootess
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:58 am

gregn21 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:

AA's got far bigger worries right now than jabbing back at DL... AA's debt is the highest of any of the US3.

exactly, AA's goal at this point is to avoid chapter 11.


Yes, and I’m sure that’s exactly why they’re launching SEA-BLR. Sarcasm aside, I think someone (not necessarily AA) will jump at the opportunity to save and benefit from KE should they really be in a near death situation.


Yeah sure, convenient answer after taking a jab at DL which has the best cash position of all the majors. If anything DL can put together a financial package for KL post-haste if they wanted to.
 
Toinou
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:04 am

SeoulIncheon wrote:
Velocity7 wrote:
BuildingMyBento wrote:

There's an obscene amount of flights to/from/within the RoK (check: Jeju-anywhere, pre/post-epidemic).

They're just another country not doing their part for climate change.


Crikey, you are right! I just did a quick look on FR24 for Arrivals into CJU for the next few hours - over 100 hundred flights, I stopped counting and all mostly on 737/320 equipment - surely more wide bodies would be appropriate? I mean you've got 2 x KE flights arriving within 5 minutes of each other, both from Seoul so it can't be a frequency thing


KE/OZ puts some widebodies on the route - sometimes even a 744 but I doubt any modern widebody will be able to withstand extreme high cycle from flying GMP-CJU. For LCCs CJU is only market that can sustain widebodies so they better not go widebodies.


To a lesser extant, the number of flights from Seoul to cities in southern part of the country are also impressive, especially given there is an efficient train network.

I'm not able to fully realise how hugely served are links to close countries in Asia. How does that compare to connections of the UK to Europe for example (this being a rather similar example in my opinion)?
 
Ciel
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:14 am

gregn21 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:

AA's got far bigger worries right now than jabbing back at DL... AA's debt is the highest of any of the US3.

exactly, AA's goal at this point is to avoid chapter 11.


Yes, and I’m sure that’s exactly why they’re launching SEA-BLR. Sarcasm aside, I think someone (not necessarily AA) will jump at the opportunity to save and benefit from KE should they really be in a near death situation.


SEA-BLR was launched at a time when the coronavirus wasn't posing a major threat to airlines as right now, if I recall correctly. Apart from a government intervention, the only foreign airline I can see helping in some ways Korean Air is Delta, considering they already have a stake at 14,9%.

https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2020&no=250161
 
AVFCdownunder
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:25 am

jfklganyc wrote:
I could see any airline shutting down without major government bailouts

There is no sign of the virus (or associated Hysteria) ending


We are in a global economic freefall as of this morning


You refer to "associated Hysteria" then talk of a global economic freefall when markets are actually stabilising and investors are taking advantage of cheaper stocks. This correction has merely reverted back to stock levels of 12-18 months ago. That is the nature of the markets and hardly economic freefall.
 
SeoulIncheon
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:00 am

Toinou wrote:
SeoulIncheon wrote:
Velocity7 wrote:

Crikey, you are right! I just did a quick look on FR24 for Arrivals into CJU for the next few hours - over 100 hundred flights, I stopped counting and all mostly on 737/320 equipment - surely more wide bodies would be appropriate? I mean you've got 2 x KE flights arriving within 5 minutes of each other, both from Seoul so it can't be a frequency thing


KE/OZ puts some widebodies on the route - sometimes even a 744 but I doubt any modern widebody will be able to withstand extreme high cycle from flying GMP-CJU. For LCCs CJU is only market that can sustain widebodies so they better not go widebodies.


To a lesser extant, the number of flights from Seoul to cities in southern part of the country are also impressive, especially given there is an efficient train network.

I'm not able to fully realise how hugely served are links to close countries in Asia. How does that compare to connections of the UK to Europe for example (this being a rather similar example in my opinion)?


Don't quote me on this but it seems that there are less frequent flights than in Europe but widebody flighets are common in Asia. You see A380s and 777s flying between Tokyo Beijing Seoul or other major East Asian cities. Intra-asia flights are also generally longer than intra-European routes, too.
 
SeoulIncheon
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:02 am

SeoulIncheon wrote:
Toinou wrote:
SeoulIncheon wrote:

KE/OZ puts some widebodies on the route - sometimes even a 744 but I doubt any modern widebody will be able to withstand extreme high cycle from flying GMP-CJU. For LCCs CJU is only market that can sustain widebodies so they better not go widebodies.


To a lesser extant, the number of flights from Seoul to cities in southern part of the country are also impressive, especially given there is an efficient train network.

I'm not able to fully realise how hugely served are links to close countries in Asia. How does that compare to connections of the UK to Europe for example (this being a rather similar example in my opinion)?


Don't quote me on this but it seems that there are less frequent flights than in Europe but widebody flighets are common in Asia. You see A380s and 777s flying between Tokyo Beijing Seoul or other major East Asian cities. Intra-asia flights are also generally longer than intra-European routes, too.


So to sum it up I think it is less frequently connected in Asia but seat count wise it seems to be on par with Europe...
 
Insertnamehere
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:40 am

Not a chance in hell, both companies employee so many in Korea that both Korean Air and Asiana will most likely be propped up by the government should their survival be in doubt. This isn’t business as usual.
 
usssla
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:52 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
zeke wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Bingo.


I still dont understand your original post. Later today they should post last years results.

The passenger side across the region is soft at the moment, I don’t think it is fair to say it is just demand related or just one airline, there are a lot of travel restrictions in place which is impacting all airlines.

The freight side of the business has seen growth as there is less passenger belly space available.

I didn't say CX WILL shut down. I was saying they have the best chance because they were hit particularly hard in their home market due to protests and kicked while they were down by the new virus.


CX has announced its annual result of 2019 today and CX is still able to make a profit in second half of 2019.
Its competitor -Hong Kong airline is at the edge of bankruptcy.
CX may suffer a significant in 1st half of 2020 but no one in market think CX is in danger.
If you compare with its peers in asia-pacific, hong kong airline, Hainan airline, Asian airlines, at lest, are more likely than CX to go bankruptcy.
 
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zeke
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:49 pm

usssla wrote:
CX has announced its annual result of 2019 today and CX is still able to make a profit in second half of 2019.
Its competitor -Hong Kong airline is at the edge of bankruptcy.
CX may suffer a significant in 1st half of 2020 but no one in market think CX is in danger.
If you compare with its peers in asia-pacific, hong kong airline, Hainan airline, Asian airlines, at lest, are more likely than CX to go bankruptcy.


I think before this is over the landscape in Asia could look very different. I think up to 5-6 airlines in Korea alone run the risk of closing because so many countries are banning Koreans due to the number of infections there. Worst case this could be the end of 50 plus airlines in the region. Many airlines were heavily reliant on cheap tickets and leisure travel,many passengers do not want to travel, not necessarily because they think they will get sick, many because they don't want to be quarantined somewhere for weeks on end. Others that want to travel are not permitted by government travel restrictions.
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jfklganyc
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:06 pm

AVFCdownunder wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
I could see any airline shutting down without major government bailouts

There is no sign of the virus (or associated Hysteria) ending


We are in a global economic freefall as of this morning


You refer to "associated Hysteria" then talk of a global economic freefall when markets are actually stabilising and investors are taking advantage of cheaper stocks. This correction has merely reverted back to stock levels of 12-18 months ago. That is the nature of the markets and hardly economic freefall.


Stabilizing?

I really could use what you’re drinking right now… I really could
 
jagraham
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:21 pm

If this crisis lasts beyond another couple of months, it would be the exact right time for DL to invest. First because other airlines, and the corresponding governments, will be desperate. DL can write their own terms. Second because the cost will be pennies on the dollar, probably with government help in one form or another. In the 2008 financial crisis, Chase went from 4th biggest to biggest by a wide margin by buying failed banks. From the FDIC. For pennies on the dollar, with government backstops.

The time to buy is when everyone else is heading for the exits.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:20 pm

This crisis will have a major effect on the A380 program as well. Right now for KE, just 45 planes are flying, with the A380s now grounded. The problem for KE is that the network within Asia is severely disrupted. But with OZ also in trouble, even with animosity between the owners of KE and the government, I can’t see a situation where there isn’t a bailout.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:39 pm

jagraham wrote:
If this crisis lasts beyond another couple of months, it would be the exact right time for DL to invest. First because other airlines, and the corresponding governments, will be desperate. DL can write their own terms.


You want some PO'd pilots? You've told them (ex-NW pilots with some seniority) that you're not funding the pension plan this year. You've told shareholders the buyback plan is suspended. You've announced a non-specific $500 million cutback in capital spending. Profit-sharing is out the window. Airlines are in survival mode.
 
J343
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:57 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
zeke wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
Bingo.


I still dont understand your original post. Later today they should post last years results.

The passenger side across the region is soft at the moment, I don’t think it is fair to say it is just demand related or just one airline, there are a lot of travel restrictions in place which is impacting all airlines.

The freight side of the business has seen growth as there is less passenger belly space available.

I didn't say CX WILL shut down. I was saying they have the best chance because they were hit particularly hard in their home market due to protests and kicked while they were down by the new virus.


CX have just posted a surprise profit for 2019 despite the HK protest. If ever, Thai Airways is a lot more likely to shut down. SQ on the other hand is cancelling over 3000 flights and Singapore has more cases than HK.
 
hz747300
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:47 am

J343 wrote:
TWA772LR wrote:
zeke wrote:

I still dont understand your original post. Later today they should post last years results.

The passenger side across the region is soft at the moment, I don’t think it is fair to say it is just demand related or just one airline, there are a lot of travel restrictions in place which is impacting all airlines.

The freight side of the business has seen growth as there is less passenger belly space available.

I didn't say CX WILL shut down. I was saying they have the best chance because they were hit particularly hard in their home market due to protests and kicked while they were down by the new virus.


CX have just posted a surprise profit for 2019 despite the HK protest. If ever, Thai Airways is a lot more likely to shut down. SQ on the other hand is cancelling over 3000 flights and Singapore has more cases than HK.


For our company, the travel ban for Singapore was lifted yesterday (11-March), but still remains for the most of the rest of Asia, including Hong Kong.
Keep on truckin'...
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:05 am

gregn21 wrote:
I can only imagine if AA stepped in and saved KE. Ultimate jab back and DL.


American Airlines is in no financial shape to do so, given the massive debt load on its books. That debt is a ticking time bomb.
 
DeltaPSCFlyer
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:09 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
If this crisis lasts beyond another couple of months, it would be the exact right time for DL to invest. First because other airlines, and the corresponding governments, will be desperate. DL can write their own terms.


You want some PO'd pilots? You've told them (ex-NW pilots with some seniority) that you're not funding the pension plan this year. You've told shareholders the buyback plan is suspended. You've announced a non-specific $500 million cutback in capital spending. Profit-sharing is out the window. Airlines are in survival mode.


Given the situation in South Korea with OZ in serious trouble, and KE headed in that same direction, DL would be better off walking away from their investment in KE than to sink more money into it, given the stark unknown. When the dust finally settles from all of this, and demand returns, DL may be facing a very different industry landscape in Asia. So if KE were to disappear (unlikely, but possible) another opportunity may present itself in the future. It may mean a new partner, or "new" aircraft they acquire from a carrier that collapsed during this crisis.

All bets are off, and I think the industry landscape and global airline alliances will look radically different after things shake out.
 
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AirAfreak
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:20 am

There is something we Koreans call, “saving face.” If you understand the significance of this within Korean Society, then you can definitely trust that Korean Air will weather the storm. And if I were a betting man, I’d place my money on Heather Cho (Cho Hyun-ah) to keep the airline afloat sans government bailouts.
Korean Air | Excellence in Flight.
 
Toinou
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Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:38 am

SeoulIncheon wrote:
SeoulIncheon wrote:
Toinou wrote:

To a lesser extant, the number of flights from Seoul to cities in southern part of the country are also impressive, especially given there is an efficient train network.

I'm not able to fully realise how hugely served are links to close countries in Asia. How does that compare to connections of the UK to Europe for example (this being a rather similar example in my opinion)?


Don't quote me on this but it seems that there are less frequent flights than in Europe but widebody flighets are common in Asia. You see A380s and 777s flying between Tokyo Beijing Seoul or other major East Asian cities. Intra-asia flights are also generally longer than intra-European routes, too.


So to sum it up I think it is less frequently connected in Asia but seat count wise it seems to be on par with Europe...


So, if true, that would confirm my feeling that the general situation of air transport in Korea is not that different than of similar situation in the West. The main difference being, like we discussed before, the rather large number of airlines. So maybe, yes, this situation may quite likely lead to some of them closing, being already fragile because of a huge level of competition.
 
SeoulIncheon
Posts: 101
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:52 am

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:48 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
This crisis will have a major effect on the A380 program as well. Right now for KE, just 45 planes are flying, with the A380s now grounded. The problem for KE is that the network within Asia is severely disrupted. But with OZ also in trouble, even with animosity between the owners of KE and the government, I can’t see a situation where there isn’t a bailout.


Actually my expectation is that should OZ and KE both get close to the edge, the gov't will bail OZ out and let KE fail due to its political stance. Hyundai Construction just announced that it does not intend to cancel Asiana acquisition so it means OZ is now in better financial position than KE...
 
jagraham
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Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:21 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
If this crisis lasts beyond another couple of months, it would be the exact right time for DL to invest. First because other airlines, and the corresponding governments, will be desperate. DL can write their own terms.


You want some PO'd pilots? You've told them (ex-NW pilots with some seniority) that you're not funding the pension plan this year. You've told shareholders the buyback plan is suspended. You've announced a non-specific $500 million cutback in capital spending. Profit-sharing is out the window. Airlines are in survival mode.


Exactly.
 
ITSTours
Posts: 572
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:51 pm

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:09 pm

SeoulIncheon wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
This crisis will have a major effect on the A380 program as well. Right now for KE, just 45 planes are flying, with the A380s now grounded. The problem for KE is that the network within Asia is severely disrupted. But with OZ also in trouble, even with animosity between the owners of KE and the government, I can’t see a situation where there isn’t a bailout.


Actually my expectation is that should OZ and KE both get close to the edge, the gov't will bail OZ out and let KE fail due to its political stance. Hyundai Construction just announced that it does not intend to cancel Asiana acquisition so it means OZ is now in better financial position than KE...


Remember which government let Hanjin Shipping liquidate and for what reason.
The current government will be forced to bail out Korean Air if it declares bankruptcy.
 
ual763
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Joined: Sun May 14, 2017 11:46 am

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:21 am

jagraham wrote:
If this crisis lasts beyond another couple of months, it would be the exact right time for DL to invest. First because other airlines, and the corresponding governments, will be desperate. DL can write their own terms. Second because the cost will be pennies on the dollar, probably with government help in one form or another. In the 2008 financial crisis, Chase went from 4th biggest to biggest by a wide margin by buying failed banks. From the FDIC. For pennies on the dollar, with government backstops.

The time to buy is when everyone else is heading for the exits.


Delta’s not going to be investing in anyone... At this time, they (along with all other airlines) are worried first and foremost about their own survival. They need to conserve their own cash, not give it away to someone else.
From flying to the NOTAM office
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 843
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:34 am

It’s not going anywhere in imho.

Korean+Asiana backed by the state is a most likely outcome if this continues.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
User avatar
thekorean
Posts: 1796
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:05 pm

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:34 am

Korean aviation industry as a whole will be fascinating if current trend of their COVID case continues while rest of the world still has yet to hit the peak.
 
JAMBOJET
Posts: 280
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:35 am

ual763 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
If this crisis lasts beyond another couple of months, it would be the exact right time for DL to invest. First because other airlines, and the corresponding governments, will be desperate. DL can write their own terms. Second because the cost will be pennies on the dollar, probably with government help in one form or another. In the 2008 financial crisis, Chase went from 4th biggest to biggest by a wide margin by buying failed banks. From the FDIC. For pennies on the dollar, with government backstops.

The time to buy is when everyone else is heading for the exits.


Delta’s not going to be investing in anyone... At this time, they (along with all other airlines) are worried first and foremost about their own survival. They need to conserve their own cash, not give it away to someone else.

Makes you wonder if Delta would prefer the cash right now or their Pacific strategy...
https://skift.com/2020/03/18/korean-air ... lta-stake/
 
ITSTours
Posts: 572
Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2017 10:51 pm

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:22 am

JAMBOJET wrote:
ual763 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
If this crisis lasts beyond another couple of months, it would be the exact right time for DL to invest. First because other airlines, and the corresponding governments, will be desperate. DL can write their own terms. Second because the cost will be pennies on the dollar, probably with government help in one form or another. In the 2008 financial crisis, Chase went from 4th biggest to biggest by a wide margin by buying failed banks. From the FDIC. For pennies on the dollar, with government backstops.

The time to buy is when everyone else is heading for the exits.


Delta’s not going to be investing in anyone... At this time, they (along with all other airlines) are worried first and foremost about their own survival. They need to conserve their own cash, not give it away to someone else.

Makes you wonder if Delta would prefer the cash right now or their Pacific strategy...
https://skift.com/2020/03/18/korean-air ... lta-stake/


The offer is a very smart move from KCGI. But will Delta sell it?
 
J343
Posts: 311
Joined: Sun Jan 13, 2008 3:40 am

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:06 am

If there’s an airline that is likely to shut down, it’s most probably going to be TG, MH and GA and potentially PR. I honestly don’t see airlines such as KE, OZ and even CX shutting down.
 
abcgogo
Posts: 29
Joined: Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:57 am

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:30 am

I don't think Korean-Air will be allowed to shut down. It is a symbol of Korea, it's brand, it's colour-scheme, etc. are very distinctive and scream "Korea" which is something that Pan-Am used to be for USA, Emirates is for the UAE and British-Airways was/is for the UK. I hope they pull through their problems.

As mentioned above by others, Cathay-Pacific and Korean-Air are too important to be ignored in case they need help. Asiana on the other hand doesn't have that same brand identity & value as Korean-Air. IMHO, Asiana is a pretty bland and forgettable brand, so I don't think the desperation to save it would be that high. Even bidders/investors would probably prefer the much stronger Korean-Air brand compared to Asiana, even though Asiana was/is rated a five-star airline by SkyTrax.
 
jagraham
Posts: 1073
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Will Korean Air Be Shutting Down?

Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:24 pm

ual763 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
If this crisis lasts beyond another couple of months, it would be the exact right time for DL to invest. First because other airlines, and the corresponding governments, will be desperate. DL can write their own terms. Second because the cost will be pennies on the dollar, probably with government help in one form or another. In the 2008 financial crisis, Chase went from 4th biggest to biggest by a wide margin by buying failed banks. From the FDIC. For pennies on the dollar, with government backstops.

The time to buy is when everyone else is heading for the exits.


Delta’s not going to be investing in anyone... At this time, they (along with all other airlines) are worried first and foremost about their own survival. They need to conserve their own cash, not give it away to someone else.


Airlines are cash intensive. DL and UA management have stated that they cannot save their way through this crisis. Analysts say that DL needs $10 billion per month to operate normally.

So we now see cuts increasing 70% to 80% cuts. Airlines that survive this mess will be the ones who reduce their expenses to what they are taking in. The big boys will have some cash in the bank, if they want to do something. The real question will be how much they want to pay? since they will be the only buyers.

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