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Ishrion
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Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:23 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN20Y2B7

- Air Canada cancels order for 11 737 MAXs (-9?)
- Japan Investment Advisors cancels order for 10 737 MAXs
- Air Lease Corporation converts 9 MAXs into three 787s.
- Oman Air converts 10 MAXs into four 787s

Unconfirmed which variants for all aircraft, but I’m assuming Air Canada entirely cancelled their MAX 9 order considering they have 11 of them on order?
Last edited by Ishrion on Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
behramjee
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:38 pm

Ishrion wrote:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/boeing-japan-investment-adviser-finalize-order-for-10-737-max-8-airplanes-300509757.html

- Air Canada cancels order for 11 737 MAXs (-9?)
- Japan Investment Advisors cancels order for 10 737 MAXs
- Air Lease Corporation converts 9 MAXs into three 787s.
- Oman Air converts 10 MAXs into four 787s

Unconfirmed which variants for all aircraft, but I’m assuming Air Canada entirely cancelled their MAX 9 order considering they have 11 of them on order?


The correct web link for the above headlines is actually https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN20Y2B7

If the 11 cancelled MAXs for AC are indeed all MAX9s, it is a good move as they really dont need the aircraft's additional capacity over the MAX8 + they have for the future new A321s of Air Transat as well.

I assume the ALC and WY conversions from MAXs to B787s are all for the B789 and not the B788.
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:40 pm

Another sad day for the MAX, and I do expect more of this!

But I do also hope this opens the door at Air Canada for the rumoured a321Neo/a330Neo order!
 
Ishrion
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:45 pm

behramjee wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/boeing-japan-investment-adviser-finalize-order-for-10-737-max-8-airplanes-300509757.html

- Air Canada cancels order for 11 737 MAXs (-9?)
- Japan Investment Advisors cancels order for 10 737 MAXs
- Air Lease Corporation converts 9 MAXs into three 787s.
- Oman Air converts 10 MAXs into four 787s

Unconfirmed which variants for all aircraft, but I’m assuming Air Canada entirely cancelled their MAX 9 order considering they have 11 of them on order?


The correct web link for the above headlines is actually https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boei ... SKBN20Y2B7

If the 11 cancelled MAXs for AC are indeed all MAX9s, it is a good move as they really dont need the aircraft's additional capacity over the MAX8 + they have for the future new A321s of Air Transat as well.

I assume the ALC and WY conversions from MAXs to B787s are all for the B789 and not the B788.


Fixed it, thanks. Was looking at when Japan Investment Advisors ordered the MAX lol.
 
cedarjet
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:53 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
I do hope this opens the door at Air Canada for the rumoured a321Neo/a330Neo order!

Likewise — I don’t know what Air Canada we’re thinking, buying the MAX. Canadians are getting as wide as their neighbours to the south, and the seats on a 737 are an inch narrower than on an A320. Huh? Not to mention clearly a regressive step in technology, and that was before MAXes started dropping out of the sky. Hopefully they’ve come to their senses.
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whywhyzee
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:59 pm

I'd say this pretty much guarantees an AC A321neo order.
 
WN732
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:02 pm

cedarjet wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
I do hope this opens the door at Air Canada for the rumoured a321Neo/a330Neo order!

Likewise — I don’t know what Air Canada we’re thinking, buying the MAX. Canadians are getting as wide as their neighbours to the south, and the seats on a 737 are an inch narrower than on an A320. Huh? Not to mention clearly a regressive step in technology, and that was before MAXes started dropping out of the sky. Hopefully they’ve come to their senses.


Really? Give me a break. They are literally one of the few airlines flying Airbus in Canada, definitely in the minority on that front. Next!
 
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:15 pm

The Air Canada and Japan Investment Advisors MAX cancellations could also be conversions to the 787. There were 3 separate unidentified orders for the 787, 2 of these could be their conversions.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:30 pm

Momo1435 wrote:
The Air Canada and Japan Investment Advisors MAX cancellations could also be conversions to the 787. There were 3 separate unidentified orders for the 787, 2 of these could be their conversions.


Guess good news in the sense that Boeing is not losing business. Maybe bad for the MAX but good for the 787.

Big bugbear if there's no RTS on the MAX. Boeing won't be able to convert all MAX to 787.
 
giblets
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:33 pm

Are these all coming out now as it is a year since the grounding, so presumably a 1 year clause in the contract somewhere about grounding allowing them to cancel?
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:40 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Momo1435 wrote:
The Air Canada and Japan Investment Advisors MAX cancellations could also be conversions to the 787. There were 3 separate unidentified orders for the 787, 2 of these could be their conversions.


Guess good news in the sense that Boeing is not losing business. Maybe bad for the MAX but good for the 787.

Big bugbear if there's no RTS on the MAX. Boeing won't be able to convert all MAX to 787.

If there's no RTS for the MAX it will indeed be a completely different story.

These are most likely part of the compensation deals, we will see more the longer the MAX stays grounded. But that will change into outright cancellations without penalties if Boeing can't deliver at all.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:42 pm

I think that somewhere between 25% to 30% of the current, undelivered MAX orders are looking vulnerable to cancellation. The current virus crisis is a good excuse for many airlines who haven't yet received their MAX's to pull the cancellation trigger with little financial penalty. Even after re-certification, the MAX will be a tough product for airlines to sell to passengers.
 
MoreMiles
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:45 pm

A321LR/A321NEO makes sense. But A330NEO? Especially with the number of used (newer)A333s available in the market? I am not sure. May be for TS? I was surprised, why AC did not convert the MAX order into 787-9?
 
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:47 pm

WN732 wrote:
cedarjet wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
I do hope this opens the door at Air Canada for the rumoured a321Neo/a330Neo order!

Likewise — I don’t know what Air Canada we’re thinking, buying the MAX. Canadians are getting as wide as their neighbours to the south, and the seats on a 737 are an inch narrower than on an A320. Huh? Not to mention clearly a regressive step in technology, and that was before MAXes started dropping out of the sky. Hopefully they’ve come to their senses.


Really? Give me a break. They are literally one of the few airlines flying Airbus in Canada, definitely in the minority on that front. Next!

Well there's only two significant airlines in Canada. What makes Air Canada unusual is they went from all-A320 family on narrow body equipment, to 737 MAX. I can't think of another prolific A320 operator that has switched (or tried to switch) from A320 to 737 MAX. Anyway let's hope they're coming to their senses.
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:48 pm

Before anyone tries to link the 11 Max 9s with this virus, it has very little to do with that. The Max 9 was never going to see the AC fleet.
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:49 pm

giblets wrote:
Are these all coming out now as it is a year since the grounding, so presumably a 1 year clause in the contract somewhere about grounding allowing them to cancel?


That could be very much the case...
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:56 pm

cedarjet wrote:
WN732 wrote:
cedarjet wrote:
Likewise — I don’t know what Air Canada we’re thinking, buying the MAX. Canadians are getting as wide as their neighbours to the south, and the seats on a 737 are an inch narrower than on an A320. Huh? Not to mention clearly a regressive step in technology, and that was before MAXes started dropping out of the sky. Hopefully they’ve come to their senses.


Really? Give me a break. They are literally one of the few airlines flying Airbus in Canada, definitely in the minority on that front. Next!

Well there's only two significant airlines in Canada. What makes Air Canada unusual is they went from all-A320 family on narrow body equipment, to 737 MAX. I can't think of another prolific A320 operator that has switched (or tried to switch) from A320 to 737 MAX. Anyway let's hope they're coming to their senses.

I don't think ordering the 737 MAX was necessarily a bad decision at the time. If Boeing offered an excellent deal, and perhaps a package with the 787, why not? The 737 MAX is very much comparable to the A320neo family in almost every way apart from payload/passenger capacity where the A321neo takes the edge. Let's be clear, I do see a place for the A21N in their fleet though, and I'd absolutely prefer to see them still all-A320.
 
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Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:00 pm

If this continues, I imagine the boneyards will be full of slight used jets from the carriers who don't make it through this. Why would anyone order a new airplane when the banks and pension funds may be having 75% off sales?
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:02 pm

    With oil prices low and travel demand uncertain, it would seem a good idea to cancel orders for new aircraft and keep older aircraft flying for longer. Older aircraft have lower lease rates and they can be parked at a lower cost whilst demand is poor. I suppose they needed the 787 anyway and so did the conversion to avoid losing money - I don't think the 787 is actually replacing the MAX.
     
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:12 pm

    peterinlisbon wrote:
    With oil prices low and travel demand uncertain, it would seem a good idea to cancel orders for new aircraft and keep older aircraft flying for longer. Older aircraft have lower lease rates and they can be parked at a lower cost whilst demand is poor. I suppose they needed the 787 anyway and so did the conversion to avoid losing money - I don't think the 787 is actually replacing the MAX.


    I can see deferrals and lots of them for MAX's but as full as the Airbus and Boeing narrow body lines are, It would be unwise to simply
    cancel and lose your place in line.... better to defer and pick a better time for your airline to take deliveries.
     
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    keesje
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:29 pm

    A321's likely. A330NEO's not, they've 789s.
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:38 pm

    peterinlisbon wrote:
    With oil prices low and travel demand uncertain, it would seem a good idea to cancel orders for new aircraft and keep older aircraft flying for longer. Older aircraft have lower lease rates and they can be parked at a lower cost whilst demand is poor. I suppose they needed the 787 anyway and so did the conversion to avoid losing money - I don't think the 787 is actually replacing the MAX.


    I agree. With oil prices recently dropping significantly, the fuel savings benefits of putting a MAX in place of a NG are now less of a factor to some airlines. In addition, the capital costs and new sim training costs can be avoided during this time of unusual financial pressure.
     
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:44 pm

    CFM565A1 wrote:
    Before anyone tries to link the 11 Max 9s with this virus, it has very little to do with that. The Max 9 was never going to see the AC fleet.


    Indeed, the MAX 9 had already been deferred indefinitely. This just confirms it and presumably, after 1 year of grounding they likely could do it without penalty.

    The bigger question is what happens next? The AC CFO is on record saying that the interim lift arrangements since the grounding can’t last past the end of this year. So if there is no RTS by mid-year to give sufficient lead time for an alternate, my guess is that AC will bail from the MAX altogether and there’ll be 24 slightly used MAX on the market and undelivered aircraft not taken up. The Coronavirus slowdown may just be the golden opportunity for some Airbus slots and for some lessors to place new aircraft at AC.

    As for why no conversion to 787s, my philosophy for a debt-free life includes never buying more car than you need and I’m sure AC has a similar philosophy for its fleet. The A330 probably is a better deal for Transatlantic. That’s why AC didn’t exercise 787 options and instead chose to pick up used A330s. Whether they would order NEOs though is debatable. The coronavirus downturn may mean a short-term parking of capacity but the long view may suggest perhaps replacing their 8 original 330s with NEOs. The originals I think are approaching, if not over 20 years, and aren’t the higher MGTOW versions. They could keep the used birds as flex capacity to shed in a downturn, while keeping the new aircraft as a stable sub-fleet.

    My money is on AC ordering A321 NEOs, a mix of standard for domestic, and LR and XLR to use on the TATL routes the MAX was to be used on. And, at the other end, perhaps exercise A220 options, perhaps even being an early adopter of the hypothetical 500.

    I strongly believe if there is no timetable for RTS by mid-year, the MAX will be dead at AC.
     
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    Momo1435
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:52 pm

    All the orders and cancellations on Boeing's February order update.

    Orders:
    ALC: 3x 787-9
    FedEx: 1x 767-300F
    Oman Air (SAOC): 4x 787-9
    Unidentified Customer(s): 4x 787-10
    Unidentified Customer(s): 3x 787-10
    Unidentified Customer(s): 3x 787-9

    Cancellations:
    Air Canada: 11x 737 MAX
    ALC: -9x 737 MAX
    BBJ: -1x 737 MAX
    JIA: -10x 737 MAX (Japan Investment Advisors)
    Oman Air: -10x 737 MAX
    Oman Air (SAOC): -4x 787-8 (was already cancelled in the ASC 606 Changes, net total = 0)
    LATAM Airlines Brasil: -1x 777F (was already cancelled in the ASC 606 Changes, net total = 0)

    Furthermore in the ASC 606 Changes -2 for the 737.
     
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:55 pm

    cedarjet wrote:
    WN732 wrote:
    cedarjet wrote:
    Likewise — I don’t know what Air Canada we’re thinking, buying the MAX. Canadians are getting as wide as their neighbours to the south, and the seats on a 737 are an inch narrower than on an A320. Huh? Not to mention clearly a regressive step in technology, and that was before MAXes started dropping out of the sky. Hopefully they’ve come to their senses.


    Really? Give me a break. They are literally one of the few airlines flying Airbus in Canada, definitely in the minority on that front. Next!

    Well there's only two significant airlines in Canada. What makes Air Canada unusual is they went from all-A320 family on narrow body equipment, to 737 MAX. I can't think of another prolific A320 operator that has switched (or tried to switch) from A320 to 737 MAX. Anyway let's hope they're coming to their senses.

    The only other airline in the world to attempt to fully switch to from A320 fully to 737 MAX is long gone. Even AC isn't following that plan anymore. The A321s aren't going anywhere any time soon and the Rouge fleet has been expanding up until just recently and they will likely be acquiring the A321s from TS as well meaning no one has fully done that switch unlike some fully switching the other way.

    It's funny that they ordered these things just because they got such a good deal. There was very little fanfare when they were introduced compared to the 787, A220, or just about any other new type. Another fun fact is most people at the company don't seem to like it and some actually hate the thing. I've heard it has been a struggle to get them to work on the Rapidair flights compared to the containerized A320s (I say this as there are a few that are bulk only). Other than the fuel burn, everything I've heard has been pretty much disappointment all around. The past year has been disaster since they haven't been able to use them and basically nothing has gone according to plan since these things started service. The -9 order has been doomed for quite some time, at least since the deferral, if not longer. There was of course talk for the -10 and I'm sure they looked into that, but a source of mine suggested that they didn't like what they saw with the -10. There was also the rumour if I read correctly that came with the A321 rumour that Boeing wouldn't be building another MAX for them only delivering what has already been built, but I may have read that wrong.

    Just think of where they would be today if they had ordered A320s and A321s in the first place... It would be business as usual aside from the threat of this stupid SARS-2. Boeing failed on biblical proportions yet again and after that track record I do not believe they deserve the business from airlines.
    WN732 wrote:
    CFM565A1 wrote:
    WN732 wrote:

    Really? Give me a break. They are literally one of the few airlines flying Airbus in Canada, definitely in the minority on that front. Next!


    2/3 of the main carriers are 320 operators... do you need % for that too or????


    And? You're including a tiny fleet of 37 Airbus at Air Transat in that figure. The 737's in Canada far outnumber the A32X fleets by a fair margin, still a minority.

    Look back at what you originally said... you were talking about number of airlines that are using Airbus not how many Airbuses are flying under Canadian reg or ownership. Now since we have shown that 2/3 significant airlines in the country have Airbuses with no current plan to remove them you change your tune to total 737 vs A320 in the country. Just be consistent.

    The point is WestJet, and WestJet, mush like Southwest, has been religiously Boeing only whenever they could be under previous management. I recall the video the pervious CEO made taking a dump on Bombardier and their CSeries that no one wanted and how much he loved Boeing and thought they were by far the best all while admitting he and his company was not a valid authority because they only had had experience with Boeing. If WestJet had been an Airbus customer it would've been a different metric here. It's besides the point, Air Canada by far is the largest airline in the country and they have failed to replace 30 year old A320s with the 737 MAX so far. Despite first taking delivery over 2 years ago.
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:58 pm

    WN732 wrote:
    CFM565A1 wrote:
    WN732 wrote:

    Really? Give me a break. They are literally one of the few airlines flying Airbus in Canada, definitely in the minority on that front. Next!


    2/3 of the main carriers are 320 operators... do you need % for that too or????


    And? You're including a tiny fleet of 37 Airbus at Air Transat in that figure. The 737's in Canada far outnumber the A32X fleets by a fair margin, still a minority.


    The numbers don't back you up on this. Not counting the MAX, as of March 8/2020, largest airlines in Canada and applicable affiliates:

    Air Canada: 65 A32X
    Air Canada Rouge: 41 A32X
    Air Transat: 14 A321

    total 120


    Westjet: 105 737NG
    Swoop 9 738
    Sunwing 19 738 (40 with seasonal leases included)

    total 133

    Hardly a "far outnumber".
    Last edited by northstardc4m on Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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    LDRA
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:01 pm

    beechnut wrote:
    CFM565A1 wrote:
    Before anyone tries to link the 11 Max 9s with this virus, it has very little to do with that. The Max 9 was never going to see the AC fleet.


    Indeed, the MAX 9 had already been deferred indefinitely. This just confirms it and presumably, after 1 year of grounding they likely could do it without penalty.

    The bigger question is what happens next? The AC CFO is on record saying that the interim lift arrangements since the grounding can’t last past the end of this year. So if there is no RTS by mid-year to give sufficient lead time for an alternate, my guess is that AC will bail from the MAX altogether and there’ll be 24 slightly used MAX on the market and undelivered aircraft not taken up. The Coronavirus slowdown may just be the golden opportunity for some Airbus slots and for some lessors to place new aircraft at AC.

    As for why no conversion to 787s, my philosophy for a debt-free life includes never buying more car than you need and I’m sure AC has a similar philosophy for its fleet. The A330 probably is a better deal for Transatlantic. That’s why AC didn’t exercise 787 options and instead chose to pick up used A330s. Whether they would order NEOs though is debatable. The coronavirus downturn may mean a short-term parking of capacity but the long view may suggest perhaps replacing their 8 original 330s with NEOs. The originals I think are approaching, if not over 20 years, and aren’t the higher MGTOW versions. They could keep the used birds as flex capacity to shed in a downturn, while keeping the new aircraft as a stable sub-fleet.

    My money is on AC ordering A321 NEOs, a mix of standard for domestic, and LR and XLR to use on the TATL routes the MAX was to be used on. And, at the other end, perhaps exercise A220 options, perhaps even being an early adopter of the hypothetical 500.

    I strongly believe if there is no timetable for RTS by mid-year, the MAX will be dead at AC.


    Why would they want to order anything new with a major downturn coming and oil at $30?
    Used market will be flooded with mint recent build A321s
    Just buckle down and ride it out.
     
    WN732
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:12 pm

    northstardc4m wrote:
    WN732 wrote:
    CFM565A1 wrote:

    2/3 of the main carriers are 320 operators... do you need % for that too or????


    And? You're including a tiny fleet of 37 Airbus at Air Transat in that figure. The 737's in Canada far outnumber the A32X fleets by a fair margin, still a minority.


    The numbers don't back you up on this. Not counting the MAX, as of March 8/2020, 5 largest airlines in Canada, or 4 if you want to be pedantic, moot point though...:

    Air Canada: 65 A32X
    Air Canada Rouge: 41 A32X
    Air Transat: 14 A321

    total 120


    Westjet: 105 737NG
    Swoop 9 738
    Sunwing 19 738 (40 with seasonal leases included)

    total 133

    Hardly a "far outnumber".


    1) I never mentioned the main carriers - because I was including the smaller ones such as Air North, etc in my original figure.
    2) A minority is a minority. I was originally mentioning that Canada as a whole nation has far more 737's either flying or grounded due to the MAX issue. My comment stands - and when the MAX is back it will further reinforce what I said.
    3) All of y'all were so focused on splitting hairs with my comments that you failed to read what was really written and focus on your perspective views.

    If you are so hard pressed on proving me wrong, please go through the trouble of counting every single airline that has 737's in Canada and the numbers in their fleets vs. the 3 Airbus airlines. That's literally what I was saying.
     
    Dominion301
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:28 pm

    LDRA wrote:
    beechnut wrote:
    CFM565A1 wrote:
    Before anyone tries to link the 11 Max 9s with this virus, it has very little to do with that. The Max 9 was never going to see the AC fleet.


    Indeed, the MAX 9 had already been deferred indefinitely. This just confirms it and presumably, after 1 year of grounding they likely could do it without penalty.

    The bigger question is what happens next? The AC CFO is on record saying that the interim lift arrangements since the grounding can’t last past the end of this year. So if there is no RTS by mid-year to give sufficient lead time for an alternate, my guess is that AC will bail from the MAX altogether and there’ll be 24 slightly used MAX on the market and undelivered aircraft not taken up. The Coronavirus slowdown may just be the golden opportunity for some Airbus slots and for some lessors to place new aircraft at AC.

    As for why no conversion to 787s, my philosophy for a debt-free life includes never buying more car than you need and I’m sure AC has a similar philosophy for its fleet. The A330 probably is a better deal for Transatlantic. That’s why AC didn’t exercise 787 options and instead chose to pick up used A330s. Whether they would order NEOs though is debatable. The coronavirus downturn may mean a short-term parking of capacity but the long view may suggest perhaps replacing their 8 original 330s with NEOs. The originals I think are approaching, if not over 20 years, and aren’t the higher MGTOW versions. They could keep the used birds as flex capacity to shed in a downturn, while keeping the new aircraft as a stable sub-fleet.

    My money is on AC ordering A321 NEOs, a mix of standard for domestic, and LR and XLR to use on the TATL routes the MAX was to be used on. And, at the other end, perhaps exercise A220 options, perhaps even being an early adopter of the hypothetical 500.

    I strongly believe if there is no timetable for RTS by mid-year, the MAX will be dead at AC.


    Why would they want to order anything new with a major downturn coming and oil at $30?
    Used market will be flooded with mint recent build A321s
    Just buckle down and ride it out.


    Yeah but this is still a golden opportunity for AC to lock up a bunch 321 delivery slots for LRs and XLRs. Huge amount of opportunity with those aircraft to further expand secondary Europe to YYZ and YUL, plus secondary Canada to Europe, such as YOW-CDG or to actually be able to fly YYT-LHR and YHZ-LHR. The XLR will probably even be in range in summer to re-open YEG-LHR and would be the right size of aircraft for YWG-LHR.

    AC's sending a message to Boeing about the 737 by cancelling the -9s instead of converting them to -8s. Buyer's remorse for AC?
     
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:36 pm

    giblets wrote:
    Are these all coming out now as it is a year since the grounding, so presumably a 1 year clause in the contract somewhere about grounding allowing them to cancel?



    wow, if that is really the case, then I am sure that many other airlines have the same clauses in their contracts.
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:38 pm

    Many armchair fleet planners here bemoaning Air Canada for ordering the 737 MAX. When the order was placed, there was no indication of trouble to come, the delivery slots were far sooner than Airbus could offer, and the bean counters loved what they saw (the biggest factor). Many also forget that Boeing took 20 E190s off AC's hands as part of the deal. Anecdotal evidence suggests AC got the 737 for a great price as well. Personally, I was disappointed with their choice. But no one from network planning called for my opinion.
    Before we continue to rip an airline for switching manufacturers, consider how fortunate that decision turned out to be, namely having a diverse NB fleet to weather the storm when 30% of that fleet is grounded. Despite rhetoric thrown around here, no one could have forseen the MAX grounding, and how valuable those old 320s would be. What if the NEO was grounded, with spillover issues to classic 320s? We'd rip the airline for dependence on one type.
    Will the prolonged grounding guarantee a NEO order? Hardly. Airlines don't toss around billions of dollars like airline enthusiasts would like them to. Between the TS fleet (if the merger is completed), and used A320/321/330s having recently joined the fleet, an additional order seems very unlikely at this point. This without any mention of a global slump in air travel, and a stock that has taken a 40% hit.
     
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:39 pm

    767333ER wrote:
    cedarjet wrote:
    WN732 wrote:

    Really? Give me a break. They are literally one of the few airlines flying Airbus in Canada, definitely in the minority on that front. Next!

    Well there's only two significant airlines in Canada. What makes Air Canada unusual is they went from all-A320 family on narrow body equipment, to 737 MAX. I can't think of another prolific A320 operator that has switched (or tried to switch) from A320 to 737 MAX. Anyway let's hope they're coming to their senses.

    The only other airline in the world to attempt to fully switch to from A320 fully to 737 MAX is long gone. Even AC isn't following that plan anymore. The A321s aren't going anywhere any time soon and the Rouge fleet has been expanding up until just recently and they will likely be acquiring the A321s from TS as well meaning no one has fully done that switch unlike some fully switching the other way.

    It's funny that they ordered these things just because they got such a good deal. There was very little fanfare when they were introduced compared to the 787, A220, or just about any other new type. Another fun fact is most people at the company don't seem to like it and some actually hate the thing. I've heard it has been a struggle to get them to work on the Rapidair flights compared to the containerized A320s (I say this as there are a few that are bulk only). Other than the fuel burn, everything I've heard has been pretty much disappointment all around. The past year has been disaster since they haven't been able to use them and basically nothing has gone according to plan since these things started service. The -9 order has been doomed for quite some time, at least since the deferral, if not longer. There was of course talk for the -10 and I'm sure they looked into that, but a source of mine suggested that they didn't like what they saw with the -10. There was also the rumour if I read correctly that came with the A321 rumour that Boeing wouldn't be building another MAX for them only delivering what has already been built, but I may have read that wrong.

    Just think of where they would be today if they had ordered A320s and A321s in the first place... It would be business as usual aside from the threat of this stupid SARS-2. Boeing failed on biblical proportions yet again and after that track record I do not believe they deserve the business from airlines.
    WN732 wrote:
    CFM565A1 wrote:

    2/3 of the main carriers are 320 operators... do you need % for that too or????


    And? You're including a tiny fleet of 37 Airbus at Air Transat in that figure. The 737's in Canada far outnumber the A32X fleets by a fair margin, still a minority.

    Look back at what you originally said... you were talking about number of airlines that are using Airbus not how many Airbuses are flying under Canadian reg or ownership. Now since we have shown that 2/3 significant airlines in the country have Airbuses with no current plan to remove them you change your tune to total 737 vs A320 in the country. Just be consistent.

    The point is WestJet, and WestJet, mush like Southwest, has been religiously Boeing only whenever they could be under previous management. I recall the video the pervious CEO made taking a dump on Bombardier and their CSeries that no one wanted and how much he loved Boeing and thought they were by far the best all while admitting he and his company was not a valid authority because they only had had experience with Boeing. If WestJet had been an Airbus customer it would've been a different metric here. It's besides the point, Air Canada by far is the largest airline in the country and they have failed to replace 30 year old A320s with the 737 MAX so far. Despite first taking delivery over 2 years ago.

    I can’t think of a first rate airline outside of NA that has ordered the MAX. Even UA, who post CO merger has been buying whatever junk Boeing slaps their name on, relented and ordered 50 321 NEOs! The MAX is a disaster and Boeing needs to start selling NGs for massive discounts in order to buy time for a new narrowbody
     
    codyul
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 6:50 pm

    Dominion301 wrote:
    LDRA wrote:
    beechnut wrote:

    Indeed, the MAX 9 had already been deferred indefinitely. This just confirms it and presumably, after 1 year of grounding they likely could do it without penalty.

    The bigger question is what happens next? The AC CFO is on record saying that the interim lift arrangements since the grounding can’t last past the end of this year. So if there is no RTS by mid-year to give sufficient lead time for an alternate, my guess is that AC will bail from the MAX altogether and there’ll be 24 slightly used MAX on the market and undelivered aircraft not taken up. The Coronavirus slowdown may just be the golden opportunity for some Airbus slots and for some lessors to place new aircraft at AC.

    As for why no conversion to 787s, my philosophy for a debt-free life includes never buying more car than you need and I’m sure AC has a similar philosophy for its fleet. The A330 probably is a better deal for Transatlantic. That’s why AC didn’t exercise 787 options and instead chose to pick up used A330s. Whether they would order NEOs though is debatable. The coronavirus downturn may mean a short-term parking of capacity but the long view may suggest perhaps replacing their 8 original 330s with NEOs. The originals I think are approaching, if not over 20 years, and aren’t the higher MGTOW versions. They could keep the used birds as flex capacity to shed in a downturn, while keeping the new aircraft as a stable sub-fleet.

    My money is on AC ordering A321 NEOs, a mix of standard for domestic, and LR and XLR to use on the TATL routes the MAX was to be used on. And, at the other end, perhaps exercise A220 options, perhaps even being an early adopter of the hypothetical 500.

    I strongly believe if there is no timetable for RTS by mid-year, the MAX will be dead at AC.


    Why would they want to order anything new with a major downturn coming and oil at $30?
    Used market will be flooded with mint recent build A321s
    Just buckle down and ride it out.


    Yeah but this is still a golden opportunity for AC to lock up a bunch 321 delivery slots for LRs and XLRs. Huge amount of opportunity with those aircraft to further expand secondary Europe to YYZ and YUL, plus secondary Canada to Europe, such as YOW-CDG or to actually be able to fly YYT-LHR and YHZ-LHR. The XLR will probably even be in range in summer to re-open YEG-LHR and would be the right size of aircraft for YWG-LHR.

    AC's sending a message to Boeing about the 737 by cancelling the -9s instead of converting them to -8s. Buyer's remorse for AC?

    And Airbus must be mighty motivated to find a new 330neo customer since that massive AirAsiaX order is in trouble. Plus I imagine it's a role reversal here of Airbus trying to get a deal with a Dreaminer customer to get the principled victory, this offering ultra discount prices. Just my theory, plus common-type so pilot group no problem. And if my memory serves me correctly a350 type-rating works for pilots to fly both. So could unlock future a350 order.
    But I'm reaching far for this one. Just thinking how I would sell it if I were Airbus. (in addition to all the 321n/lr/xlr arguments being made)
    YUL PNC :weightlifter:
     
    MoreMiles
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:03 pm

    767333ER wrote:


    The only other airline in the world to attempt to fully switch to from A320 fully to 737 MAX is long gone.

    Can you please let me know which was the other airline which switched from A320 to B737MAX?

    Silkair (MI) also converted from a fleet of A32x to MAX. They did however get some B737NG as interim lift during the order.

    I do think, the price AC got on the MAX would have been great considering the delay of the B787s.
     
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    Thunderboltdrgn
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:49 pm

    MoreMiles wrote:
    767333ER wrote:


    The only other airline in the world to attempt to fully switch to from A320 fully to 737 MAX is long gone.

    Can you please let me know which was the other airline which switched from A320 to B737MAX?

    Silkair (MI) also converted from a fleet of A32x to MAX. They did however get some B737NG as interim lift during the order.

    I do think, the price AC got on the MAX would have been great considering the delay of the B787s.


    I would assume that 767333ER is thinking of Monarch airlines.
    Like a thunderbolt of lightning the Dragon roars across the sky. Il Drago Ruggente
     
    IWMBH
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:56 pm

    I think AC is really regretting their MAX order....
     
    Armodeen
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:39 pm

    But Monarch are dead and gone, and he did say first rate airline.


    Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
    MoreMiles wrote:
    767333ER wrote:


    The only other airline in the world to attempt to fully switch to from A320 fully to 737 MAX is long gone.

    Can you please let me know which was the other airline which switched from A320 to B737MAX?

    Silkair (MI) also converted from a fleet of A32x to MAX. They did however get some B737NG as interim lift during the order.

    I do think, the price AC got on the MAX would have been great considering the delay of the B787s.


    I would assume that 767333ER is thinking of Monarch airlines.
     
    Speedalive
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:42 pm

    I think the 330NEO is a no-go for now. If there is an order, like others have said, it’ll probably be the A320NEO.
    I would argue that there won’t be any orders in the short term at all though, considering the current events i.e. SARS2. The grounding of the Max and the cancellation of the -9’s might actually be a blessing for them right now. Instead of parking aircraft, they can now drop their aircraft utilisation to normal rates (as opposed to everything flying at 110% to cover for the max grounding) and start making some headway on maintenance, cabin reconfigs, wifi, paint jobs, etc. Additionally, Air Canada is currently experiencing a mass shortage of pilots (there was a rumour of them requiring up to 900 pilots in a recent bid). With the reduced flying due to SARS2 and the reduction in anticipated required crewing numbers for the 737 MAX, many of these vacant positions can be covered with the current 737 max pilots who are sitting idle twiddling their thumbs. Just my 2 cents. I’d definitely be shocked if AC ordered anything right now.
     
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:45 pm

    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    If this continues, I imagine the boneyards will be full of slight used jets from the carriers who don't make it through this. Why would anyone order a new airplane when the banks and pension funds may be having 75% off sales?

    Leeham just wrote:

    (Southwest) is scouring the market for 737NGs and MAXes for expansion. The collapse of India’s Jet Airways and Air Italy offer some near-term MAXes.

    Ref: https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/10/heard ... o-be-next/

    CV new case rate is dropping in China, in a few months we'll have a worldwide recovery and the smart airlines will be well positioned to make the most of a good buying opportunity.
    Last edited by Revelation on Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:46 pm

    MoreMiles wrote:
    767333ER wrote:


    The only other airline in the world to attempt to fully switch to from A320 fully to 737 MAX is long gone.

    Can you please let me know which was the other airline which switched from A320 to B737MAX?

    Silkair (MI) also converted from a fleet of A32x to MAX. They did however get some B737NG as interim lift during the order.


    I believe it was the UK leisure airline Monarch. Their penultimate re-financing deal was underpinned by a deal with Boeing, the FT reported a the time that Boeing had "pumped" $100 million into Monarch. How much of that was into the airline, or into the MRO, or secured against future deliveries it not mentioned. Monarch Engineering was a Boeing GoldCare provider in Europe and the UK - I believe they did almost all of the work on Norwegians 787 fleet, for example.
     
    KFTG
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:48 pm

    AC should have never ordered it to begin with.
     
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    keesje
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:01 pm

    AC quietly added A321s, after they ordered the MAX. I always wondered how they would be going back from their AKH luggage & cargo infrastructure to bulk. That would also have been a unique transition.

    Polot & Newbie pilot spend years educating me on the AC MAX/A321 situation. viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1351597&start=50
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:11 pm

    behramjee wrote:
    If the 11 cancelled MAXs for AC are indeed all MAX9s, it is a good move as they really dont need the aircraft's additional capacity over the MAX8


    Isn't it more that they don't need the capacity at all? much less from aircraft with an unsafe reputation? Good on them for ditching the Boeing Pinto.
     
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:15 pm

    Revelation wrote:
    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    If this continues, I imagine the boneyards will be full of slight used jets from the carriers who don't make it through this. Why would anyone order a new airplane when the banks and pension funds may be having 75% off sales?

    Leeham just wrote:

    (Southwest) is scouring the market for 737NGs and MAXes for expansion. The collapse of India’s Jet Airways and Air Italy offer some near-term MAXes.

    Ref: https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/10/heard ... o-be-next/

    CV new case rate is dropping in China, in a few months we'll have a worldwide recovery and the smart airlines will be well positioned to make the most of a good buying opportunity.


    I get that they may want some cheap NG's but why would Southwest be interested in new MAXes. if they need to train their crew to be able to fly the MAX they will have their hands full with to get the planes flying they already have.
     
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:25 pm

    ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
    Another sad day for the MAX, and I do expect more of this!

    But I do also hope this opens the door at Air Canada for the rumoured a321Neo/a330Neo order!


    Aren't you the trouble maker! Hitting Boeing when they are already down for the count. Is there really a rumor about new AC a321's and a330's? Would this be the time for such an order?
     
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:28 pm

    IWMBH wrote:
    I get that they may want some cheap NG's but why would Southwest be interested in new MAXes. if they need to train their crew to be able to fly the MAX they will have their hands full with to get the planes flying they already have.

    Because they are probably going to get them for pennies on the dollar, so they don't care if they sit a while before crews can be trained. Last year WN said they were leaving money on the table due to not having enough aircraft. CV is a huge hit for now, but it won't be permanent and doesn't change their fundamental shortage of aircraft.
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:27 pm

    Always thought the max9 (for the price, package, and assumptions B agreed to) was the perfect jet for heavy 5 hour sectors in AC's network (YULYVR, YOWYVR, YULYYC, off-peak YYZLAX, YYZSFO, YYZYYC)
     
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:38 pm

    The probability Air Canada could order A321 LR/XLR is high since they don't have a narrowbody Atlantic plane and Air Transat has them. The probability they order A330-900neo has to almost None. The only reason AC has A330-300 is because their long haul fleet all Airbus before the 777 came along replacing the A340-300 aircraft. It's more likely AC would get A350's eventually replacing Boeing long haulers, but that is a long time from now since AC has many new 787-9.
     
    beechnut
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:58 pm

    Initially the A330s were all supposed to be replaced by 787s. AC decided it really liked the 330, especially on transatlantic, and has now even expanded the fleet.

    A wildcard is the Air Transat merger, and how they re-distribute the fleet (if they do) after that merger. Or they may simply gather first-hand data on the 321LR's economics and use that to decide on an order for Mainline. The downturn does give them some breathing room. They may not need to press those newly-acquired used A330s into service. They could park them temporarily.

    The downturn is likely only temporary though, so someone at AC must be taking a long-term view and planning accordingly, and any prudent analysis will consider both a MAX RTS *and* the possibility of Boeing scrapping the MAX altogether.
     
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    767333ER
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    Re: Air Canada Cancels 11 737 MAX, Oman Air & Air Lease Convert Some MAXs Into 787s

    Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:27 pm

    WN732 wrote:
    northstardc4m wrote:
    WN732 wrote:

    And? You're including a tiny fleet of 37 Airbus at Air Transat in that figure. The 737's in Canada far outnumber the A32X fleets by a fair margin, still a minority.


    The numbers don't back you up on this. Not counting the MAX, as of March 8/2020, 5 largest airlines in Canada, or 4 if you want to be pedantic, moot point though...:

    Air Canada: 65 A32X
    Air Canada Rouge: 41 A32X
    Air Transat: 14 A321

    total 120


    Westjet: 105 737NG
    Swoop 9 738
    Sunwing 19 738 (40 with seasonal leases included)

    total 133

    Hardly a "far outnumber".


    1) I never mentioned the main carriers - because I was including the smaller ones such as Air North, etc in my original figure.
    2) A minority is a minority. I was originally mentioning that Canada as a whole nation has far more 737's either flying or grounded due to the MAX issue. My comment stands - and when the MAX is back it will further reinforce what I said.
    3) All of y'all were so focused on splitting hairs with my comments that you failed to read what was really written and focus on your perspective views.

    If you are so hard pressed on proving me wrong, please go through the trouble of counting every single airline that has 737's in Canada and the numbers in their fleets vs. the 3 Airbus airlines. That's literally what I was saying.

    No you are focusing on your perspective/bias by starting an argument in the first place. There are only 3 (and a half including Sunwing) Airlines of real significance in Canada; it is shown that within these airlines besides the MAX that the numbers are very close and we are not talking about "[t]he 737's in Canada far outnumber[ing] the A32X fleets by a fair margin", and even with the MAX a legal transport aircraft, Air Canada is the deciding factor here as their order was the one that tipped the scale so it seems. Had they ordered the A32XN, with the MAX in service the numbers would be similar. It's evident that you are trying to imply something fallacious here by stating your original reply. It looks to be either you see the slightly higher number of 737s in Canada as proof that it is better than the A320 (even though it is not) or that it's not a big deal and we shouldn't' be whining that Air Canada's commitment to this plane takes away our choice to avoid the 737. When you suggest something like this expect people to split hairs; that's how arguments work.
    Thunderboltdrgn wrote:
    MoreMiles wrote:
    767333ER wrote:


    The only other airline in the world to attempt to fully switch to from A320 fully to 737 MAX is long gone.

    Can you please let me know which was the other airline which switched from A320 to B737MAX?

    Silkair (MI) also converted from a fleet of A32x to MAX. They did however get some B737NG as interim lift during the order.

    I do think, the price AC got on the MAX would have been great considering the delay of the B787s.


    I would assume that 767333ER is thinking of Monarch airlines.

    :checkmark:
    I forgot about Silkair. First rate is kind of a subjective term.
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