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ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 346
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:28 am

Re: Boeing in Crisis

Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:24 pm

o0OOO0oChris wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Is there a list of who the stored (What is it, circa 300?) MAX jets are for?

Given the current storm clouds, it would be interesting to see how likely these already built and stored jets are to be either delivered (best case), deferred or outright cancelled (worst case).

I don`t think a already build and painted Jet can be cancelled? With all customer specific tunes applied?
Probably just defered at most.


Sorry, in cancelled, in my head at least I was including airlines on the brink of collapse á la Norwegian. Do HNA have any on order and built? I'm sure there are a few shaky airlines out there who unfortunately might not survive this crisis.

But you make a good point, and I'll leave someone more knowledgeable answer!
 
ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 346
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:28 am

Re: Boeing in Crisis

Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:27 pm

oschkosch wrote:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Is there a list of who the stored (What is it, circa 300?) MAX jets are for?

Given the current storm clouds, it would be interesting to see how likely these already built and stored jets are to be either delivered (best case), deferred or outright cancelled (worst case).
800 or so

Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk


I was more aiming at undelivered and still in BA's inventory on their balance sheet.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 246
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

Re: Boeing in Crisis

Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:36 pm

I suggest you all read the opinion piece in Aviation Week (which was not behind a paywall)
https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/manu ... ders-first

There is a chart that shows Boeing stock buy backs vs RD expenditures and some infamous quotes from past Boeing President

Life long Republican but kinda think Biden needs to put Elizabeth Warren in his cabinet. First thing banned - stock buybacks
Last edited by MohawkWeekend on Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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    YVRing
    Posts: 104
    Joined: Tue Nov 22, 2016 9:14 pm

    Re: Boeing in Crisis

    Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:41 pm

    They'll pull some dirty trick to cut pensions by 50% while share holders and CEOs are fine.
     
    Redsand187
    Posts: 60
    Joined: Sun Jan 26, 2014 10:47 pm

    Re: Boeing in Crisis

    Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:12 pm

    This is becoming a good opportunity for someone to lead a takeover. A Bezos or Musk type figure not afraid to clean house and totally reset priorities. It would be interesting to see what could be done if the type of innovation used in private space travel companies made its way to commercial airliners. Who is willing to actually take on that task though? Probably no one.
     
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    scbriml
    Posts: 19038
    Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

    Re: Boeing in Crisis

    Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:18 pm

    o0OOO0oChris wrote:
    ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
    Is there a list of who the stored (What is it, circa 300?) MAX jets are for?

    Given the current storm clouds, it would be interesting to see how likely these already built and stored jets are to be either delivered (best case), deferred or outright cancelled (worst case).

    I don`t think a already build and painted Jet can be cancelled? With all customer specific tunes applied?
    Probably just defered at most.


    There are already quite a few ‘white tails’ among the 400+ undelivered MAX. Planes built for Jet Airways, Qatar (Air Italy) and unallocated frames for leasing companies.
    Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
    There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
     
    Motorhussy
    Posts: 3669
    Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:49 am

    Re: Boeing in Crisis

    Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:24 pm

    jeffrey0032j wrote:
    Asiaflyer wrote:
    Worst possible timing for Boeing to go into another crisis just as they are about to solve the MAX grounding.
    Many arilines have already started to look into their planned deliveres for 2020 and 2021 and both Airbus and Boeing can expect deferrals and order cancellations.
    Dont expect many airlines to be able to take any new planes for growth as they planned, but instead to look at any possible way to preserve cash. The 777X looks particularily vulnerable for deferrals and cancellations.
    Airbus has so far been more lucky by already cancelling the A380 program and is still shipping out A320neo at full rate. Deferrals and cancellation will very soon hit them as well.

    I see it differently, in fact, they are more prepared for this crisis than Airbus. My opinion is that they probably have multiple backup plans drawn out, ready for deployment, for the Max crisis and one that includes further market deterioration or mass cancellations. They just have to make the decision to switch between the different crisis plans. Psychologically speaking, Boeing was already in crisis mode, they don't need as much psychological adjustment as Airbus to deal with this new crisis.

    In some ways, this crisis is working in favour of Boeing than Airbus. Airbus still doesn't appear to have any plans yet, and if I'm an Airbus investor, I will be asking questions.


    Are you drunk? Airbus has diversified its manufacturing and assembly with four A32X plants around the world with vested local interests in keeping them viable. They have closed the A380 line. They have three successful next-gen in-demand aircraft lines in production and the A330neo. They are in a resilient position.

    BTW, what are the rules/laws on foreign ownership/investment in Boeing? It’s starting to look like a good time to make a takeover bid.
    come visit the south pacific
     
    klkla
    Posts: 843
    Joined: Fri Jul 16, 2004 8:51 am

    Re: Boeing in Crisis

    Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:29 pm

    SteinarN wrote:
    Revelation wrote:
    The two largest aviation manufacturer's stocks are taking a beating.

    Here's the year to date graph for both:

    Image

    Ref: https://twitter.com/LeehamNews/status/1 ... 4767167489


    Year to date Boeing have lost 48 percent.
    Year to date Airbus have lost 46 percent.

    Since all time high 13 months ago Boeing have lost 62 percent
    Since all time high one and a half month ago Airbus have lost 49 percent.


    Perhaps the name of the thread should be changed to Boeing and Airbus in Crisis.
     
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    Polot
    Posts: 10517
    Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

    Re: Boeing in Crisis

    Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:39 pm

    Motorhussy wrote:
    jeffrey0032j wrote:
    Asiaflyer wrote:
    Worst possible timing for Boeing to go into another crisis just as they are about to solve the MAX grounding.
    Many arilines have already started to look into their planned deliveres for 2020 and 2021 and both Airbus and Boeing can expect deferrals and order cancellations.
    Dont expect many airlines to be able to take any new planes for growth as they planned, but instead to look at any possible way to preserve cash. The 777X looks particularily vulnerable for deferrals and cancellations.
    Airbus has so far been more lucky by already cancelling the A380 program and is still shipping out A320neo at full rate. Deferrals and cancellation will very soon hit them as well.

    I see it differently, in fact, they are more prepared for this crisis than Airbus. My opinion is that they probably have multiple backup plans drawn out, ready for deployment, for the Max crisis and one that includes further market deterioration or mass cancellations. They just have to make the decision to switch between the different crisis plans. Psychologically speaking, Boeing was already in crisis mode, they don't need as much psychological adjustment as Airbus to deal with this new crisis.

    In some ways, this crisis is working in favour of Boeing than Airbus. Airbus still doesn't appear to have any plans yet, and if I'm an Airbus investor, I will be asking questions.


    Are you drunk? Airbus has diversified its manufacturing and assembly with four A32X plants around the world with vested local interests in keeping them viable. They have closed the A380 line. They have three successful next-gen in-demand aircraft lines in production and the A330neo. They are in a resilient position.

    BTW, what are the rules/laws on foreign ownership/investment in Boeing? It’s starting to look like a good time to make a takeover bid.

    It’s mostly FALs that has been diversified across the world. They are still all reliant on several important European plants. Airbus and Boeing both share many of the same suppliers. If the virus creates a situation where Boeing’s current production lines (the wide bodies) have to be shut down Airbus will be facing the same issues.
    Last edited by Polot on Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
     
    MohawkWeekend
    Posts: 246
    Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

    Re: Boeing in Crisis

    Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:30 pm

    AW&ST is perhaps the most authoritative journal in this industry. It was an Opinion piece. I not sure you can dispute the facts he presented.
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      716131
      Posts: 892
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      Re: Boeing in Crisis

      Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:42 pm

      Dieuwer wrote:
      Just announced that Boeing has booked 46 cancellations with a net loss of 28 orders AND has blown through it entire $14B loan to keep it afloat!

      https://seekingalpha.com/news/3550618-b ... -28-orders

      I predict that if Boeing does not get a government bailout (soon), it will go bankrupt.

      If Boeing goes bankrupt, then the whole aviation world will surely be in turmoil.
      If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
       
      716131
      Posts: 892
      Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:51 am

      Re: Boeing in Crisis

      Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:50 pm

      IWMBH wrote:
      Boeing has definitely has some work to do, but they aren't in a crises.
      They've the almost unlimited budget of the USA to thank for that, they will never allow BA to go bankrupt.
      Also, airlines can't just order Airbus instead of Boeing, Airbus won't be able to fulfil that many orders.

      Indeed. People who thinks they forced airline to order Airbus is just a joke. If they do like this, Airbus can go bankrupt. Do you know Why? Because these people that I am annoyed of is just the one who don’t find Money!
      If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
       
      MohawkWeekend
      Posts: 246
      Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2019 2:06 pm

      Re: Boeing in Crisis

      Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:00 am

      I think I'll stick with AW&ST. And not buy BA stock anytime soon.
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        zeke
        Posts: 14978
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        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:00 am

        Revelation wrote:
        And virtuous Airbus down to 74 despite no evil stock buy backs.

        It's 52 week trading range is 71.65 - 139.40 so it's off almost half from its 52 week peak.

        I think this thread's narrative needs adjusting, a few victory laps need rescinding.


        This is the last 12 months of the Boeing and Airbus share prices in US$ terms, Airbus trades in Euros.


        Image
        Human rights lawyers are "ambulance chasers of the very worst kind.'" - Sky News
         
        Motorhussy
        Posts: 3669
        Joined: Thu Mar 30, 2000 7:49 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:31 am

        zeke wrote:
        Revelation wrote:
        And virtuous Airbus down to 74 despite no evil stock buy backs.

        It's 52 week trading range is 71.65 - 139.40 so it's off almost half from its 52 week peak.

        I think this thread's narrative needs adjusting, a few victory laps need rescinding.


        This is the last 12 months of the Boeing and Airbus share prices in US$ terms, Airbus trades in Euros.


        Image


        Interesting, Boeing had been trending down for the year while Airbus was the opposite… with the precipice as steep for both but much further for one.

        We live in interesting times.
        come visit the south pacific
         
        Scotron12
        Posts: 486
        Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:36 am

        Motorhussy wrote:
        zeke wrote:
        Revelation wrote:
        And virtuous Airbus down to 74 despite no evil stock buy backs.

        It's 52 week trading range is 71.65 - 139.40 so it's off almost half from its 52 week peak.

        I think this thread's narrative needs adjusting, a few victory laps need rescinding.


        This is the last 12 months of the Boeing and Airbus share prices in US$ terms, Airbus trades in Euros.


        Image


        Interesting, Boeing had been trending down for the year while Airbus was the opposite… with the precipice as steep for both but much further for one.

        We live in interesting times.


        Could be because Boeing derives almost 31% of their business from US defense spending. No clue how much NASA throws at them. Much more than they do at SpaceX.
         
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        Francoflier
        Posts: 5265
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        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:40 am

        Any aviation related company's stock will be taking a battering at the moment. This is not an indication of the underlying health and resilience of the company.

        The question is which one is better positioned to weather the storm. I have my own uninformed opinion on that, but then it's not hard to see which one was already bailing water out before the waves even started hitting.
        I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
         
        WayexTDI
        Posts: 1706
        Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:48 am

        Polot wrote:
        WayexTDI wrote:
        Speaking of TechOps, they might see an increase in activity as those aircraft are parked left and right; it's the perfect time to do maintenance on them.

        Hard to say if true or not. In situations like this airlines often plan which planes in the fleet to park based on how trying to save money by deferring cycle/hour based maintenance on the aircraft parked. Planes with upcoming maintenance are favored for parking because best case scenario you can save money now and pay for and perform the maintenance later when traffic has recovered and you need the plane again, and worse case scenario the plane ends up permanently parked and never re-enters fleet and you didn’t waste money on maintenance. Parked plans might get switched out depending on remaining time and maintenance needs.

        Mantra is save, save, save.

        Qantas seems to disagree with you: https://aviationweek.com/mro/qantas-jet ... c0f4a9b2d5
         
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        LAX772LR
        Posts: 13216
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        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:41 am

        cedarjet wrote:
        And the 777X only has a total of 300 orders (which I find incredible).

        Hardly surprising at all... its debut is horribly timed.

        The A346s and 744s have largely already been replaced, and the 77Ws (oldest is barely 16yrs-old) won't be in full replacement mode for another half decade.

        Combine that with no guarantee that A388 operators will default to 779s, along with the 778 only having a firm footing with one carrier; and you'll see that the current low order numbers are more or less to be expected.
        I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
         
        coltonRAHS
        Posts: 1
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        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:44 am

        Aither wrote:
        IWMBH wrote:
        Also, airlines can't just order Airbus instead of Boeing, Airbus won't be able to fulfil that many orders.

        Except if airlines need less aircraft.

        Airlines don't want that to happen. Competition between those two companies helps drive prices down and keeps those companies innovating. If Boeing collapsed, Airbus would have a virtual monopoly on the commercial aircraft market (excluding regional jets).
         
        mjoelnir
        Posts: 9391
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        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:53 am

        Revelation wrote:
        And virtuous Airbus down to 74 despite no evil stock buy backs.


        If you want to compare Boeing and Airbus and want to comment on stock buy backs, you got that absolutely the wrong way round.

        And Boeing going further down than Airbus even though Boeing burned billions on stock buy backs.
         
        Opus99
        Posts: 812
        Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:33 am

        LAX772LR wrote:
        cedarjet wrote:
        And the 777X only has a total of 300 orders (which I find incredible).

        Hardly surprising at all... its debut is horribly timed.

        The A346s and 744s have largely already been replaced, and the 77Ws (oldest is barely 16yrs-old) won't be in full replacement mode for another half decade.

        Combine that with no guarantee that A388 operators will default to 779s, along with the 778 only having a firm footing with one carrier; and you'll see that the current low order numbers are more or less to be expected.

        309 PRE EIS is not low in comparison to its predecessors. Even the 77W. But I agree with your point of the increase in orders struggle
         
        Danny
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        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:35 am

        Agree that at this stage Chapter 11 seems 90% certain scenario. Cash is burning out, with the developing crisis it will be hard to obtain extra financing. No one needs their airplanes even if MAX is cleared to fly.
         
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        scbriml
        Posts: 19038
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        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:38 am

        SQ789 wrote:
        Dieuwer wrote:
        Just announced that Boeing has booked 46 cancellations with a net loss of 28 orders AND has blown through it entire $14B loan to keep it afloat!

        https://seekingalpha.com/news/3550618-b ... -28-orders

        I predict that if Boeing does not get a government bailout (soon), it will go bankrupt.

        If Boeing goes bankrupt, then the whole aviation world will surely be in turmoil.


        The turmoil is already here!
        Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
        There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
         
        Opus99
        Posts: 812
        Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:41 am

        https://youtu.be/EESYomdoeCs

        Very good 20 minute Documentary on YouTube by Bloomberg on “How Boeing Lost it’s way”. They speak to ex-employees and industry experts and give you a full picture of essentially what made boeing the great company that it is but also what made it not so good. Most of the things I originally learnt from a.net. But quite insightful
         
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        Faro
        Posts: 1981
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        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:05 am

        Danny wrote:
        Agree that at this stage Chapter 11 seems 90% certain scenario. Cash is burning out, with the developing crisis it will be hard to obtain extra financing. No one needs their airplanes even if MAX is cleared to fly.



        Chapter 11 is intensive care, it's not the morgue...

        As other have said, the US government will not let Boeing go under...way too important as both a defense contractor and direct/indirect employer...if cash starts running short, there will be a government bail-out...and it will have broad public support too, not like with the financial sector bail-outs in 2008...you can bank on that...

        Soon time to start buying Boeing stock...


        Faro
        The chalice not my son
         
        UnMAXed
        Posts: 52
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        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:11 am

        We can also stick a fork in the NMA. It is done!
         
        StTim
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        Joined: Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:39 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:42 am

        The money for a new program is drying up by the day.

        I never believed the grounding would last a year.
         
        superjeff
        Posts: 1358
        Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 2:14 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:47 am

        Bo eing has (and has had) significant issues, going back years. they have a major hubris issue, going back at least as far as US 427 in Pittsburgh (when they tried to blame US Air for a crash caused by a probable faulty rudder control - same thing on a United 737 outside of COS and almost another disaster on an Eastwind 737 over New Jersey, which ultimately allowed the authorities to solve the probable cause. Now they appear to have decided to sacrifice safety for speed and profitability. Yes, Boeing will hurt for a while, but they will recover, and, maybe, we'll get a new airplane out of it which is better than the 73M.
         
        716131
        Posts: 892
        Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:51 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:26 pm

        scbriml wrote:
        SQ789 wrote:
        Dieuwer wrote:
        Just announced that Boeing has booked 46 cancellations with a net loss of 28 orders AND has blown through it entire $14B loan to keep it afloat!

        https://seekingalpha.com/news/3550618-b ... -28-orders

        I predict that if Boeing does not get a government bailout (soon), it will go bankrupt.

        If Boeing goes bankrupt, then the whole aviation world will surely be in turmoil.


        The turmoil is already here!

        I know this is already turmoil. But what I mean is that it will be more and more worst if Boeing keeps doing like that.
        If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
         
        Elementalism
        Posts: 602
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        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:02 pm

        I would expect more deferrals or cancellations over the next 12-18 months. The economy was already flirting with recession. Coronavirus will send it over the brink. With that will come less business travel once the Coronavirus runs its course.
         
        chiad
        Posts: 1318
        Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:06 pm

        Opus99 wrote:
        https://youtu.be/EESYomdoeCs

        Very good 20 minute Documentary on YouTube by Bloomberg on “How Boeing Lost it’s way”. They speak to ex-employees and industry experts and give you a full picture of essentially what made boeing the great company that it is but also what made it not so good. Most of the things I originally learnt from a.net. But quite insightful


        Very nice documentary.
        Thank you.
         
        Adipocere
        Posts: 323
        Joined: Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:35 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:38 pm

        Faro wrote:
        Danny wrote:
        Agree that at this stage Chapter 11 seems 90% certain scenario. Cash is burning out, with the developing crisis it will be hard to obtain extra financing. No one needs their airplanes even if MAX is cleared to fly.



        Chapter 11 is intensive care, it's not the morgue...

        As other have said, the US government will not let Boeing go under...way too important as both a defense contractor and direct/indirect employer...if cash starts running short, there will be a government bail-out...and it will have broad public support too, not like with the financial sector bail-outs in 2008...you can bank on that...

        Soon time to start buying Boeing stock...


        Faro


        Huh?? Even if there was a direct government bailout ala GM - you bet it will end up like Motors Liquidation Corp. Common shareholders will be wiped out.
         
        dtw2hyd
        Posts: 8278
        Joined: Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:49 pm

        SQ789 wrote:
        Dieuwer wrote:
        Just announced that Boeing has booked 46 cancellations with a net loss of 28 orders AND has blown through it entire $14B loan to keep it afloat!

        https://seekingalpha.com/news/3550618-b ... -28-orders

        I predict that if Boeing does not get a government bailout (soon), it will go bankrupt.

        If Boeing goes bankrupt, then the whole aviation world will surely be in turmoil.


        Not really, packaged bankruptcy (363 sale) is always an option. Start a New Boeing Company, move only worthy programs and assets to that, leave troubled programs and liabilities with Old Boeing Company.
        All posts are just opinions.
         
        KarlB737
        Posts: 2841
        Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2004 9:51 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:57 pm

        phlswaflyer wrote:
        I blame a board and the last two CEO's...............................


        And don't forget the massive amount of payout they were given while going out the door. Why does that happen?
         
        asr0dzjq
        Posts: 203
        Joined: Tue Oct 29, 2019 2:36 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:01 pm

        Dieuwer wrote:
        oschkosch wrote:
        Will the stock go lower than 150?

        Gesendet von meinem SM-G950F mit Tapatalk


        Lower than $100 you mean ;) :stirthepot:

        Down to negative infinity you mean ;) :stirthepot:
        R.I.P. Douglas Aircraft Company
        Born 22 July 1921 | Died 23 May 2006
        You will be missed, but your management will not.
         
        Virtual737
        Posts: 719
        Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:16 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:23 pm

        jeffrey0032j wrote:
        I see it differently, in fact, they are more prepared for this crisis than Airbus. My opinion is that they probably have multiple backup plans drawn out, ready for deployment, for the Max crisis and one that includes further market deterioration or mass cancellations. They just have to make the decision to switch between the different crisis plans. Psychologically speaking, Boeing was already in crisis mode, they don't need as much psychological adjustment as Airbus to deal with this new crisis.

        In some ways, this crisis is working in favour of Boeing than Airbus. Airbus still doesn't appear to have any plans yet, and if I'm an Airbus investor, I will be asking questions.


        Well you sure get my vote for optimist of the week.
         
        Sokes
        Posts: 1288
        Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:40 pm

        Francoflier wrote:

        Don't forget that these airlines are owed compensation, and that consequently these 787 might very well be given at a huge discount as part of the compensation package.

        Boeing would rather give away cheap or free 787s than handing out huge cash payments, but these 'orders' are not necessarily helping the 787 program much other than helping keep the production rate up.


        I was expecting the following argument:
        "That's not a problem, as deferred production costs are debts Boeing owns to itself."
        Strange nobody posted this so far. I guess sentiment changed and people like to follow the opinion of the crowd.


        jeffrey0032j wrote:
        Psychologically speaking, Boeing was already in crisis mode, they don't need as much psychological adjustment as Airbus to deal with this new crisis.

        In some ways, this crisis is working in favour of Boeing than Airbus. ...


        ???


        Revelation wrote:
        This is not just a "Boeing In Crisis" moment:

        Image

        Ref: https://twitter.com/LeehamNews/status/1 ... 4767167489



        I'm not surprised. Loosing money by gambling with derivatives is even worse than share buybacks.
        I don't like how government regulation changed the last decades, specially that Roosevelt's Glass-Steagall act got repealed.
        If one argued that no equity is not enough one got to hear about the wisdom of the crowds and that the markets know best. As reason doesn't help I hope at least one or better both go bankrupt. I see no other way to bring back proper regulation.



        iamlucky13 wrote:
        Stock buybacks and dividends are both spent from the excess after business needs are met. They are part of the profits that investors initially bought an ownership share in the company for.

        ???


        mjoelnir wrote:
        The stock buy backs at Boeing was not done out of excess cash or capital. Boeing went straight to the brink, going for no or negative equity. That is going for the foundation of the company. Liabilities are not longer covered by assets. Add to that, that because in program for cost accounting the deferred cost are booked to assets, a big part of the booked assets are non existing. Real equity at Boeing is about 30 billion USD negative. So it would have been prudent to not do 35 billions of the stock buy backs in the last 6 years. 8 Billion would have been prudent, 43 billion is burning the foundations.
        Having a healthy equity, is exactly necessary when a major disaster happens. Boeing used the good times to burn its cash or better capital. It seems that the gamblers at the casino called stock market always forget that there will be bear market coming one day.
        ...
        People sometimes forget that stock buy backs were banned until the Regan area. There were good reasons for that. We have seen what loosening of all controls, agreed upon after the great recession, have done to the financial markets. Dividends are the proper way to compensate shareholders.


        I wanted to write some more, but I don't know how to write it better than that.
        Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
         
        User avatar
        caoimhin
        Posts: 463
        Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:30 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:11 pm

        UnMAXed wrote:
        We can also stick a fork in the NMA. It is done!


        What does this mean?
         
        ewt340
        Posts: 1247
        Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 7:20 pm

        caoimhin wrote:
        UnMAXed wrote:
        We can also stick a fork in the NMA. It is done!


        What does this mean?


        It means that Boeing would be ultra conservatives in the next decade to come. Rather than focusing on NMA. They would probably put their money on MAX replacement which could easily sold between 4,000 - 5,000 frames.

        And also improved or re-engines the popular B787 rather than gambling on NMA which would only sold for around 1,000 - 2,000 frames.
         
        User avatar
        keesje
        Posts: 13835
        Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:17 pm

        ewt340 wrote:
        caoimhin wrote:
        UnMAXed wrote:
        We can also stick a fork in the NMA. It is done!


        What does this mean?


        It means that Boeing would be ultra conservatives in the next decade to come. Rather than focusing on NMA. They would probably put their money on MAX replacement which could easily sold between 4,000 - 5,000 frames.

        And also improved or re-engines the popular B787 rather than gambling on NMA which would only sold for around 1,000 - 2,000 frames.


        Makes sense.
        "Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
         
        11C
        Posts: 151
        Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:25 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:59 am

        IWMBH wrote:
        Boeing has definitely has some work to do, but they aren't in a crises.
        They've the almost unlimited budget of the USA to thank for that, they will never allow BA to go bankrupt.
        Also, airlines can't just order Airbus instead of Boeing, Airbus won't be able to fulfil that many orders.


        If this isn’t a crisis for Boeing, I wouldn’t know how to define the word. I agree that they will not be allowed to fail, but it is still prudent to appear as though you are trying to succeed. Some of the recent decisions of Boeing leadership look very poorly informed, and the internal emails show an alarming arrogance.
         
        TTailedTiger
        Posts: 2370
        Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:07 am

        If the US airlines have to be bailed out by the government then there should be stipulations that they must buy from US manufacturers whenever possible if they want the aid. That would include ordering from Boeing, GE, etc. This would eliminate or lessen the need to prop up Boeing and other US aviation suppliers. That relief money needs to go back into our economy.
         
        strfyr51
        Posts: 4900
        Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:44 am

        Redsand187 wrote:
        strfyr51 wrote:
        For all the BS? Boeing and the 737 will eventually be ok. The FAA is in Sour Grapes now trying to do anything to get their "Pound of Flesh" .
        So Who was it that decided to LET Boeing inspect themselves? Who was it that wasn't hiring or training inspectors nor Engineers to look over the Boeing Findings?
        It Sure as hell wasn't Boeing!! Boeing went along with it for sure and then cheated and Lied through the Teeth! Hell! For that alone every engineering Document relating to the 737 up to the 747 should be reviewed! But? Since none of them have been crashing? It won't happen. But Now all of a sudden? The FAA wants to look at electrical wiring and all kinds of madness. They want to inspect what they've been up to now "Pencil whipping" Looking for trash in the tanks and BS like that! So tell me?
        How Many FAA inspectors are there at Airbus Commercial? Are we just taking EASA's Word for it that Airbus is above reproach? OR is this which hunt Just for Boeing?
        Either we do it for EVERYBODY? or we don't do it at all!! Maybe the FAA should have been Doing the Job we pay TAXES for in the first Place!!


        It was Boeing's idea to self inspect. In theory, that takes a lot of responsibility off of the FAA so they don't need the staff which is good for their budget. The FAA now going through everything with a fine-tooth comb isn't just retaliation. It's is proven Boeing has broken rules and things aren't meeting the requirements as agreed. Now the FAA has every right to go back and question everything. Looking at wiring and finding trash in fuel tanks isn't anything excessive. If the wiring was designed and built properly, there is no big deal, and I don't think anyone believes there is an acceptable about trash in a fuel tank that can potentially cause fuel starvation.

        It's more the FAA decided to give a quick look around to make sure everything is on the up and up, and they obviously found stuff that wasn't. Just because dangerous designs and sloppy work weren't called out before, doesn't mean it's okay for it to continue, especially after a major incident. If the MAX comes out of this and has ANY issue once it's back in service, the FAA is screwed right alongside Boeing. It is now the FAA's duty to make sure the plane is 100% in compliance in all aspects because Boeing can't be trusted anymore.

        IF? that's the case? then exactly HOW is the FAA going to change going forward? Are they going to inspect Boeing because they've been stupid? And if nobody else has been stupid? Then how would they even KNOW?? "Tombstone regulation" is not a way t do business. Either get on the bandwagon for Everybody? Or? Nobody!
        Because Airbus hasn't crashed lately? IS NO Reason to JUST "jack" Boeing. They're all in the same game! If you're no longer taking Boeing's word for it?
        (which I do not disagree with.) Then you take NOBODY'S word for it and place inspectors at EVERY Manufacturer who sells airplanes in the USA.
        That way? there's nobody to Blame when and if it Goes South!
         
        strfyr51
        Posts: 4900
        Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:54 am

        the FAA has NO problem issuing Emergency AD notes when a problem arises on any airplane, Maybe they should be in the mix when the stuff is manufactured and observe the testing of parts and systems. once they're on the Airplanes. It used to be? The FAA even did flight testing on new models, Do they still do that? When I was still a Mechanic, I had FAA inspectors Crawling up my wazoo for stuff they had NO IDEA what they were looking for. As a Maintenance supervisor at a Major airline I had an FAA inspector Ground an airplane on the GATE because He didn't like the way Boeing measured Brake Wear in the maintenance manual. So? Maybe the FAA should have their inspectors Educated and certified BY Fleet and Model and then follow tht model from the first panel Cut, to Airline operation,
         
        JoseSalazar
        Posts: 188
        Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:18 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:31 am

        TTailedTiger wrote:
        If the US airlines have to be bailed out by the government then there should be stipulations that they must buy from US manufacturers whenever possible if they want the aid. That would include ordering from Boeing, GE, etc. This would eliminate or lessen the need to prop up Boeing and other US aviation suppliers. That relief money needs to go back into our economy.

        What about Mobile made airbuses?
         
        TTailedTiger
        Posts: 2370
        Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:48 am

        JoseSalazar wrote:
        TTailedTiger wrote:
        If the US airlines have to be bailed out by the government then there should be stipulations that they must buy from US manufacturers whenever possible if they want the aid. That would include ordering from Boeing, GE, etc. This would eliminate or lessen the need to prop up Boeing and other US aviation suppliers. That relief money needs to go back into our economy.

        What about Mobile made airbuses?


        What about them? That money still goes to Airbus and the EU. I would expect similar demands from the EU if they gave relief funds to their airlines. And Mobile would still be plenty busy. I can't imagine it would make financial sense for airlines like Spirit and JetBlue to take government relief money with those restrictions. But beggars can't be choosers.
         
        oschkosch
        Posts: 584
        Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:41 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:03 am

        more issues for Boeing! A 12 inch crack and partial decompression...
        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... bed-by-faa
        https://www.reuters.com/article/us-faa- ... SKBN21039D

        FAA launches probe after in-flight incident reveals 12-inch crack on 737 jet

        An initial inspection of the aircraft by the FAA revealed a 12-inch crack on the crown skin in an area that already requires inspections every 1,500 flight cycles. The Wall Street Journal reported the aviation safety regulator was investigating potential structural problems affecting hundreds of Boeing 737 jets.
        :stirthepot: :airplane: "This airplane is designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys" :airplane: :stirthepot:
         
        User avatar
        scbriml
        Posts: 19038
        Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:41 am

        TTailedTiger wrote:
        If the US airlines have to be bailed out by the government then there should be stipulations that they must buy from US manufacturers whenever possible if they want the aid. That would include ordering from Boeing, GE, etc. This would eliminate or lessen the need to prop up Boeing and other US aviation suppliers. That relief money needs to go back into our economy.


        This is right up there with suing global aviation authorities for grounding the MAX. :crazy:
        Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
        There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
         
        User avatar
        Faro
        Posts: 1981
        Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 1:08 am

        Re: Boeing in Crisis

        Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:41 am

        Adipocere wrote:
        Faro wrote:
        Danny wrote:
        Agree that at this stage Chapter 11 seems 90% certain scenario. Cash is burning out, with the developing crisis it will be hard to obtain extra financing. No one needs their airplanes even if MAX is cleared to fly.



        Chapter 11 is intensive care, it's not the morgue...

        As other have said, the US government will not let Boeing go under...way too important as both a defense contractor and direct/indirect employer...if cash starts running short, there will be a government bail-out...and it will have broad public support too, not like with the financial sector bail-outs in 2008...you can bank on that...

        Soon time to start buying Boeing stock...


        Faro


        Huh?? Even if there was a direct government bailout ala GM - you bet it will end up like Motors Liquidation Corp. Common shareholders will be wiped out.



        Agreed.

        But then this thread is about Boeing's survival...not the welfare of its common shareholders...if things do get ugly, indeed someone will have to pay...that is capitalism...the important thing is that Boeing itself survive...it is too important for the US...and indeed for the world economy...Airbus cannot make up for the shortfall in production which would result from Boeing's disappearance...we all need Boeing to survive regardless of its past sins...for the big difference with GM is that there is strong, persistent, secular demand for airliners in the medium/long term...be it from Boeing or Airbus...the world needs both...


        Faro
        The chalice not my son
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