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xwb777
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Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:07 am

With the coronavirus epidemic hitting the airline and aviation industry hard, forcing airlines to cancel flights, grounding planes and offering leaves to their staffs, American Airlines is fighting harder as its bookings have sharply decreased in addition to its high debts ($34 Billions) and unfavorable ratings. AA has lost more than 50% of its value.

According to the article, which is published by Sam Chui, AA is going to files bankruptcy again after they have did the last time post 11/9 attacks in New York City. At that time, the airline had a debt of $29.55 billion

According to United’s President Scott Kirby, bookings to Asia and Europe have collapsed, while the airlines domestic bookings have decreased by 70%.

Will the new airline CEO who will be taking the Captain’s seat help in saving the airline?

More can be found at https://samchui.com/2020/03/12/american ... moUUCVRWEe
Last edited by atcsundevil on Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Edited title in accordance with forum rules
 
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STT757
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:21 am

AA filed for bankruptcy protection a decade, 10 years, after the 9/11 attacks. I’m not sure why you connected them as if they were tied together.


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BA744PHX
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:28 am

Who exactly is Sam Chui? Another blogger? Why not throw DL, UA, WN, F9, AS ect ect into the mix. UA due to their large Asia network and DL (i believe) they state they are the largest airline to Europe.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:30 am

A string of bankruptcies of mergers is plausible

NK B6 F9 Have less exposure and should be OK

I don’t even know how airlines like United an Delta get out of bed this morning. They have a real mess
 
Cointrin330
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:31 am

xwb777 wrote:
With the coronavirus epidemic hitting the airline and aviation industry hard, forcing airlines to cancel flights, grounding planes and offering leaves to their staffs, American Airlines is fighting harder as its bookings have sharply decreased in addition to its high debts ($34 Billions) and unfavorable ratings. AA has lost more than 50% of its value.

According to the article, which is published by Sam Chui, AA is going to files bankruptcy again after they have did the last time post 11/9 attacks in New York City. At that time, the airline had a debt of $29.55 billion

According to United’s President Scott Kirby, bookings to Asia and Europe have collapsed, while the airlines domestic bookings have decreased by 70%.

Will the new airline CEO who will be taking the Captain’s seat help in saving the airline?

More can be found at https://samchui.com/2020/03/12/american ... moUUCVRWEe


AMR Corporation, the parent of American Airlines at the time of the 9/11 attacks, was the only major airline holding company that did not file for bankruptcy in the the US in the wake of 9/11. It filed in 2011. A full ten years later. There is no indication AA is on the brink of bankruptcy any more than DL or UA. AA has a higher debt load but Sam Chui is an expert at sitting in business class chatting with the crew, not an armchair CEO. DL and UA are just as exposed as the entire industry, globally. More mergers are likely down the road, but that's a fairly long way away.
 
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STT757
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:34 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
xwb777 wrote:
With the coronavirus epidemic hitting the airline and aviation industry hard, forcing airlines to cancel flights, grounding planes and offering leaves to their staffs, American Airlines is fighting harder as its bookings have sharply decreased in addition to its high debts ($34 Billions) and unfavorable ratings. AA has lost more than 50% of its value.

According to the article, which is published by Sam Chui, AA is going to files bankruptcy again after they have did the last time post 11/9 attacks in New York City. At that time, the airline had a debt of $29.55 billion

According to United’s President Scott Kirby, bookings to Asia and Europe have collapsed, while the airlines domestic bookings have decreased by 70%.

Will the new airline CEO who will be taking the Captain’s seat help in saving the airline?

More can be found at https://samchui.com/2020/03/12/american ... moUUCVRWEe


AMR Corporation, the parent of American Airlines at the time of the 9/11 attacks, was the only major airline holding company that did not file for bankruptcy in the the US in the wake of 9/11. It filed in 2011. A full ten years later. There is no indication AA is on the brink of bankruptcy any more than DL or UA. AA has a higher debt load but Sam Chui is an expert at sitting in business class chatting with the crew, not an armchair CEO. DL and UA are just as exposed as the entire industry, globally. More mergers are likely down the road, but that's a fairly long way away.


And Continental, whom was the first major carrier to return to profitability after 9/11.


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MIflyer12
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:58 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
AMR Corporation, the parent of American Airlines at the time of the 9/11 attacks, was the only major airline holding company that did not file for bankruptcy in the the US in the wake of 9/11. It filed in 2011. A full ten years later. There is no indication AA is on the brink of bankruptcy any more than DL or UA. AA has a higher debt load but Sam Chui is an expert at sitting in business class chatting with the crew, not an armchair CEO. DL and UA are just as exposed as the entire industry, globally. More mergers are likely down the road, but that's a fairly long way away.


I don''t think Sam Chui says anything insightful here but your remarks need correcting.

DL and UA may be comparably exposed on the revenue side but they bring higher margins, much less debt, and more unencumbered assets into the conflict. They (DL, anyway) may have $10-15 Billion in borrowing capacity above AA.

WN (and AS, if you consider it major) did not file for Chapter 11.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:04 pm

No one knows the extent of which this could reek havoc with the airlines. Right now it doesn't look good short term but by May things could be back to normal. Anyone that professes that AA (or any other US domestic airline) is sure to file bankruptcy this year is an idiot. As noted DL and UA have less debt and more paid for planes that can easily be parked.
 
gsg013
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:18 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
Who exactly is Sam Chui? Another blogger? Why not throw DL, UA, WN, F9, AS ect ect into the mix. UA due to their large Asia network and DL (i believe) they state they are the largest airline to Europe.


AA has more debt than the rest of the entire US airline industry combined... Debt/EBITDA is ~10x at a company like DL their Debt/EBITDA is between 1x to 1.5x.
 
Kikko19
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:21 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
No one knows the extent of which this could reek havoc with the airlines. Right now it doesn't look good short term but by May things could be back to normal. Anyone that professes that AA (or any other US domestic airline) is sure to file bankruptcy this year is an idiot. As noted DL and UA have less debt and more paid for planes that can easily be parked.

all parties are onboard the same sinking ship. i guess everyone will be rescued afterwards or everyone will be f...d.
 
DALCE
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:23 pm

Sam Chui, well....he's just another avgeek blogger with a huge network. I don't value his commercial input as very valuable. Just because he's well known in the industry doesn't make him an expert...
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PA110
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:34 pm

DALCE wrote:
Sam Chui, well....he's just another avgeek blogger with a huge network. I don't value his commercial input as very valuable. Just because he's well known in the industry doesn't make him an expert...


Not to defend him in any way, but I believe aviation is just his hobby. I seem to recall his day job is in finance. I may be wrong.
Look, it's been swell, but the swelling's gone down.
 
ozark1
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:36 pm

I’m sorry, but I don’t particularly give a lot of credibility to Sam Chui who is paid to ride around the world first class, with the carrier knowing in advance so they can offer a flawless service. It all seems too staged to me, and although he may be right on his comments in other areas, like carrier finances, I don’t think that is anywhere near his area of expertise. Stick to your trip reviews and let those who are educated in numbers crunch them. All you have done is create fear, which is not a healthy thing to do in these terrible times
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:44 pm

Worth pointing out that while AA did not file for Chapter 11 until 2011, they came very very close to filing in early 2003 - I think somebody was outside the court building ready to go in, when there was a change of mind. It's because many of the other airlines filed fir bankruptcy shortly after 9/11 and AA didn't that they were struggling so much in later years - the 'wave magic wand at debt' route had not been taken

If TATL and TPAC bookings have collapsed, domestic flying is less than half the usual level and a company has nontrivial debt, then a bankruptcy filing is a possibility for not just AA, but also other N.American airlines as well
 
JAMBOJET
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:44 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Cointrin330 wrote:
AMR Corporation, the parent of American Airlines at the time of the 9/11 attacks, was the only major airline holding company that did not file for bankruptcy in the the US in the wake of 9/11. It filed in 2011. A full ten years later. There is no indication AA is on the brink of bankruptcy any more than DL or UA. AA has a higher debt load but Sam Chui is an expert at sitting in business class chatting with the crew, not an armchair CEO. DL and UA are just as exposed as the entire industry, globally. More mergers are likely down the road, but that's a fairly long way away.


I don''t think Sam Chui says anything insightful here but your remarks need correcting.

DL and UA may be comparably exposed on the revenue side but they bring higher margins, much less debt, and more unencumbered assets into the conflict. They (DL, anyway) may have $10-15 Billion in borrowing capacity above AA.

WN (and AS, if you consider it major) did not file for Chapter 11.

Not being contrarian by asking this... just curious
but in this kind of market where the industry has an extremely uncertain future, where no one wants or needs planes (unencumbered assets to sell/lease back), where delta's ICN, AMS, and CDG hubs are now useless, and likely JFK as well (it's not a domestic hub, it's an international one)...
Who is going to lend to Delta and/or United at any normal rate? I get that balance sheets should always matter in a normal crisis or downturn, but this isn't that. There's enormous uncertainty.
Seems like cash in hand and, to a lesser extent, domestic market presence are the best things at the moment. The uncertainty around the industry seems like it would drive Delta/United's borrowing costs up.
Last edited by JAMBOJET on Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
FRNT787
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:48 pm

2 days ago, on the JPMorgan Industrials Call, the management team identified they have ~$7.3 Billion in liquidity (above their standard target of ~$7 billion and well above their stated debt covenants requiring ~$2 Billion). They identified a further ~$10 billion in unencumbered assets. They have significant debt, but few maturities over the next couple of years. High debt is bad, but the company is pretty well positioned to ride through this. They were asked on the call about aircraft deliveries and said they have no plans to defer them.

One note Doug Parker made, is that the airline industry today is very different than before 2013. Large airlines have the financial ability to power through this without assistance, bailouts, or restructuring, because the restructure was already completed.

Attached is the slide deck for the conference, their investor page has links to a recording of their segment of the conference.

https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/st ... 9a1eb4aea5
 
BC77008
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:00 pm

IMO - Even if we find a miracle cure for COVID19 today this will have devastating effects on the industry as a whole until at least next year. Anyone sitting at a computer this morning wanting to book a summer or fall trip to Rome, Italy will probably find themselves in Rome, Georgia instead - or forgo travelling at all until next year. Nothing will be returning to normal any time soon.
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peterinlisbon
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:06 pm

I think all airlines are going to file bankruptcy, unless the governments decide to save them. At this stage the Corona Virus can't be stopped - it is going to spread absolutely everywhere and most countries are going to end up with lockdowns of the style we have already seen in China and Italy. The alternative is to let 5% of the population die.
 
Lootess
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:13 pm

STT757 wrote:
AA filed for bankruptcy protection a decade, 10 years, after the 9/11 attacks. I’m not sure why you connected them as if they were tied together.


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More like AA waited way too long to file Chapter 11 last go around, and certain AA loyalists here kept trying to brag they had the highest margins yet they had the highest costs in the industry when everyone else cleaned house.
 
LHRFlyer
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Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:53 pm

At times like this, bloggers and journalists should stick to hard facts and not engage in unfounded speculation.

One lesson from this whole era is the importance of actual experts and not rewarding those who shout for clicks.
 
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scbriml
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Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:55 pm

Then again, they might not. :spin:
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RDUDDJI
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:56 pm

peterinlisbon wrote:
The alternative is to let 5% of the population die.


Don't be ridiculous. The mortality rate so far is around 3%, but that's only 3% of confirmed* infected. By that logic even if every human on Earth were infected, it would still not get to 5%. *The amount of infected is likely many times higher than the "confirmed" infected, which will drop the mortality rate significantly. Then, of course, it's also highly unlikely that every human on Earth will get it. It's far more likely less than 1% of the population will be infected than the whole World. Stop the fearmongering.
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Lootess
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Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:04 pm

LHRFlyer wrote:
At times like this, bloggers and journalists should stick to hard facts and not engage in unfounded speculation.

One lesson from this whole era is the importance of actual experts and not rewarding those who shout for clicks.


None of it is unfounded, Sam uses material facts in the article. AA has double the debt of UA and DL, and over the years AA has not paid it down compared to it's peers instead just been buying back stock.
 
chonetsao
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:07 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
peterinlisbon wrote:
The alternative is to let 5% of the population die.


Don't be ridiculous. The mortality rate so far is around 3%, but that's only 3% of confirmed* infected. By that logic even if every human on Earth were infected, it would still not get to 5%. *The amount of infected is likely many times higher than the "confirmed" infected, which will drop the mortality rate significantly. Then, of course, it's also highly unlikely that every human on Earth will get it. It's far more likely less than 1% of the population will be infected than the whole World. Stop the fearmongering.


I think Italy can give you some good argument when it is at a mortality rate close to 6%.

I trust numbers from Italy, not China, even I am Chinese. China's number is very suspicious.
 
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OA412
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:14 pm

STT757 wrote:
And Continental, whom was the first major carrier to return to profitability after 9/11.


In large part because their costs were already low relative to the rest of the industry given their two prior Ch. 11 filings, a process UA, US, NW, DL, and AA didn't have to go through until after 9/11 rocked the industry.
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RDUDDJI
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:19 pm

chonetsao wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
peterinlisbon wrote:
The alternative is to let 5% of the population die.


Don't be ridiculous. The mortality rate so far is around 3%, but that's only 3% of confirmed* infected. By that logic even if every human on Earth were infected, it would still not get to 5%. *The amount of infected is likely many times higher than the "confirmed" infected, which will drop the mortality rate significantly. Then, of course, it's also highly unlikely that every human on Earth will get it. It's far more likely less than 1% of the population will be infected than the whole World. Stop the fearmongering.


I think Italy can give you some good argument when it is at a mortality rate close to 6%.

I trust numbers from Italy, not China, even I am Chinese. China's number is very suspicious.


I love when people "choose" their statistics. Now to return the favor:

Italy has the World's second oldest population (next to Japan). The median age of those who have died in Italy is 80. 80! Go ahead and marinate on that for a minute. And again, you're using *confirmed* cases as your numerator. There are far more infected that don't even know they're infected and may never show symptoms.

I don't trust Italy, China the US, or any other single country's numbers to be indicative of the overall effects. They all have their own agendas. Suggest you look at WHO numbers that encompass the World. That may not be perfect either, but it's surely better than one or two anecdotal examples.
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FRNT787
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Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:24 pm

Lootess wrote:
LHRFlyer wrote:
At times like this, bloggers and journalists should stick to hard facts and not engage in unfounded speculation.

One lesson from this whole era is the importance of actual experts and not rewarding those who shout for clicks.


None of it is unfounded, Sam uses material facts in the article. AA has double the debt of UA and DL, and over the years AA has not paid it down compared to it's peers instead just been buying back stock.


But some of what he writes is missing some details. While the company does have higher debt than before bankruptcy (9 years ago), their leverage ratio is well lower. The capex needs are being cut nearly in half starting this year and next year. Additionally, AA has significantly more liquidity than either of the other two. Over 7 billion in cash/liquidity and $10 billion in unencumbered assets. Loans at friendly interest rates may be hard to come by for a while, so having a bunch of cash is a good place to be.

The management team further stated that the buybacks were suspended for now.
 
FSDan
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Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:14 pm

No, they won't file for bankruptcy. Doug Parker himself assured us that they'll never lose money again. :duck:
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D L X
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Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:15 pm

Just so everyone is aware, Sam Chui is not an aviation industry insider. He's more a prolific photographer, with almost 5000 (fantastic) photos on this site.

For instance:


https://www.airliners.net/index/photogr ... ui/2814/76

I would not suspect that Mr. Chui would have ANY inside information to be trusted here.
 
invertir
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Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:16 pm

xwb777 wrote:
According to United’s President Scott Kirby, bookings to Asia and Europe have collapsed, while the airlines domestic bookings have decreased by 70%.


Scott Kirby stated that they are prepared for a worst case scenario in which airline bookings decrease by 70%, including international. I listened to the full investor presentation.

Your entire statement and Sam Chui's blog post are ridiculous... uninformed speculation by bloggers.
 
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OA412
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Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:26 pm

D L X wrote:
Just so everyone is aware, Sam Chui is not an aviation industry insider. He's more a prolific photographer, with almost 5000 (fantastic) photos on this site.

For instance:


https://www.airliners.net/index/photogr ... ui/2814/76

I would not suspect that Mr. Chui would have ANY inside information to be trusted here.

Indeed. He's more a social media personality than anything else. I think this is nothing more than speculation on his part.
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vfw614
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:27 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
peterinlisbon wrote:
It's far more likely less than 1% of the population will be infected than the whole World. Stop the fearmongering.


Where do get this funny idea from? Estimates by scientists are that up to 60-70 per cent of the population will get infected over time. The only question is how many of them will get seriously ill and how many will eventually die because of that. That's simply because we are looking at an aggressive virus that has reached all continents and for which no vaccine will be available for another 12-18 months. All that is happening now is not to stop the spread of the virus, but to slow it down in order to ease pressure for the health system.
 
JohanTally
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:36 pm

peterinlisbon wrote:
I think all airlines are going to file bankruptcy, unless the governments decide to save them. At this stage the Corona Virus can't be stopped - it is going to spread absolutely everywhere and most countries are going to end up with lockdowns of the style we have already seen in China and Italy. The alternative is to let 5% of the population die.


Mortality rate in South Korea is less than .8% and have zero deaths under 30 years old only one from 30-39 and one from 40-49. The big difference is South Korea is making it easy for their population to be tested so they have a lot of confirmed cases when in Italy people aren't being tested until they are gravely ill. In South Korea there is a 7% mortality rate for the 80+ population which is common with lots of illnesses on the elderly. South Korea has drive thru testing facilities that text you your results within 4 to 6 hours. They are winning the battle against the virus I just wish the US would follow suit.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... outh-korea
 
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TVNWZ
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Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:42 pm

There seems to be a very big lack of understanding about how debt works.
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:46 pm

vfw614 wrote:
Where do get this funny idea from? Estimates by scientists are that up to 60-70 per cent of the population will get infected over time.


Two people have said that is a worst case. And they clearly qualified that by saying: "If nothing is done to contain it". You (conveniently) left that last part out.

I am not advocating a "do nothing" approach. In fact, I'd prefer the opposite. I think the US and Europe probably need to quarantine now to avoid overrunning healthcare systems. "Flatten the curve" as they say.
Last edited by RDUDDJI on Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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peterinlisbon
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:50 pm

JohanTally wrote:
peterinlisbon wrote:
I think all airlines are going to file bankruptcy, unless the governments decide to save them. At this stage the Corona Virus can't be stopped - it is going to spread absolutely everywhere and most countries are going to end up with lockdowns of the style we have already seen in China and Italy. The alternative is to let 5% of the population die.


Mortality rate in South Korea is less than .8% and have zero deaths under 30 years old only one from 30-39 and one from 40-49. The big difference is South Korea is making it easy for their population to be tested so they have a lot of confirmed cases when in Italy people aren't being tested until they are gravely ill. In South Korea there is a 7% mortality rate for the 80+ population which is common with lots of illnesses on the elderly. South Korea has drive thru testing facilities that text you your results within 4 to 6 hours. They are winning the battle against the virus I just wish the US would follow suit.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... outh-korea


It depends on how the virus peaks. The death rate may be kept under 1% if everyone that needs oxygen gets it. This will not be possible if there are very large numbers of people ill at the same time. In that case doctors will have to decide who will get oxygen and who will die. This is why it is very important to try to slow the spread down.
 
planecane
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:06 pm

BC77008 wrote:
IMO - Even if we find a miracle cure for COVID19 today this will have devastating effects on the industry as a whole until at least next year. Anyone sitting at a computer this morning wanting to book a summer or fall trip to Rome, Italy will probably find themselves in Rome, Georgia instead - or forgo travelling at all until next year. Nothing will be returning to normal any time soon.

Disagree completely. If the COVID-19 threat is eliminated, why would anybody not book a trip? Especially because all of the central banks will be printing money to prop up the world economy.

You don't even need a miracle cute. As bad as the spread has been, it is possible that it can be contained in 2-3 months or maybe less. China, which had the worst spread, is only having a handful of new cases a day while the active cases are dropping by over 1000 a day. It is not implausible for other countries to achieve the same in the same time frame .
 
planecane
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:09 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Where do get this funny idea from? Estimates by scientists are that up to 60-70 per cent of the population will get infected over time.


Two people have said that is a worst case. And they clearly qualified that by saying: "If nothing is done to contain it". You (conveniently) left that last part out.

I am not advocating a "do nothing" approach. In fact, I'd prefer the opposite. I think the US and Europe probably need to quarantine now to avoid overrunning healthcare systems. "Flatten the curve" as they say.


Exactly. Those experts were saying that when most of the world was pretty much doing nothing. Now every country with any level of outbreak is doing at least something.
 
santi319
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Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:12 pm

Who the hell is Sam Chui and why is he relevant
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:17 pm

planecane wrote:
RDUDDJI wrote:
vfw614 wrote:
Where do get this funny idea from? Estimates by scientists are that up to 60-70 per cent of the population will get infected over time.


Two people have said that is a worst case. And they clearly qualified that by saying: "If nothing is done to contain it". You (conveniently) left that last part out.

I am not advocating a "do nothing" approach. In fact, I'd prefer the opposite. I think the US and Europe probably need to quarantine now to avoid overrunning healthcare systems. "Flatten the curve" as they say.


Exactly. Those experts were saying that when most of the world was pretty much doing nothing. Now every country with any level of outbreak is doing at least something.


It would be very difficult (legally, and in practice) to do what China did and physically force people to stay out of public. Civil liberties make that a tough task in the West. That being said, I think the governments should shutdown large gathering areas, and non-essential travel (basically remove reasons for people to go out and gather and then spread stuff around). It pains me a great deal to say this, but I think closing the airports should also be on the table. Then you can attempt to keep the outbreaks separate. If we don't flatten the curve now, healthcare systems will quickly be overrun like what's happened in Italy. I don't think anyone wants to see sick patients being turned away at hospitals.
Last edited by RDUDDJI on Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:19 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
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CobraKai
Posts: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:04 pm

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:18 pm

Also, large companies like major airlines can sustain heavy losses for multiple years without filing for bankruptcy, so unless the coronavirus suppresses demand for multiple years, they are going to come out just fine.

I think this blogger just wanted to drive some clicks...
 
chonetsao
Posts: 587
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:21 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
I love when people "choose" their statistics. Now to return the favor:

Italy has the World's second oldest population (next to Japan). The median age of those who have died in Italy is 80. 80! Go ahead and marinate on that for a minute. And again, you're using *confirmed* cases as your numerator. There are far more infected that don't even know they're infected and may never show symptoms.

I don't trust Italy, China the US, or any other single country's numbers to be indicative of the overall effects. They all have their own agendas. Suggest you look at WHO numbers that encompass the World. That may not be perfect either, but it's surely better than one or two anecdotal examples.


There is nowhere I can find evidence to suggest that [The median age of those who have died in Italy is 80]. Please kindly post your source of this statement.
 
jetblueguy22
Posts: 3435
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:26 am

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:22 pm

I’ll listen to Sam Chui when I want to know about the cuisine in EK F. His credibility outside of that is little at best
Look at sweatpants guy. This is a 90 million dollar aircraft, not a Tallahassee strip club
 
Min2Plns
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:08 am

Re: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:23 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
Who exactly is Sam Chui? Another blogger? Why not throw DL, UA, WN, F9, AS ect ect into the mix. UA due to their large Asia network and DL (i believe) they state they are the largest airline to Europe.

Who is Sam Chui? only one of the most prolific Avgeeks, aviation photographer and journalist in the world...more than 5000 photos on a.net and one of the most relevant Youtube Channels about aviation. Why not through other airlines in the mix? cause that was not the aim of his article.
 
MR27122
Posts: 132
Joined: Sat May 06, 2017 3:00 am

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:26 pm

Rest assured :lol:

“I don’t think we’re ever going to lose money again,” Parker said. “We have an industry that’s going to be profitable in good and bad times.” -Doug Parker USA Today 9/28/17
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3698
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:34 pm

Sam Chui needs to stick to taking pictures. Looking at just one debt figure and making a conclusion shows a lack of financial understanding. It's reckless, but sadly common. It helps paint the false narrative about AA.
 
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enilria
Posts: 10177
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:36 pm

xwb777 wrote:
With the coronavirus epidemic hitting the airline and aviation industry hard, forcing airlines to cancel flights, grounding planes and offering leaves to their staffs, American Airlines is fighting harder as its bookings have sharply decreased in addition to its high debts ($34 Billions) and unfavorable ratings. AA has lost more than 50% of its value.

According to the article, which is published by Sam Chui, AA is going to files bankruptcy again after they have did the last time post 11/9 attacks in New York City. At that time, the airline had a debt of $29.55 billion

According to United’s President Scott Kirby, bookings to Asia and Europe have collapsed, while the airlines domestic bookings have decreased by 70%.

Will the new airline CEO who will be taking the Captain’s seat help in saving the airline?

More can be found at https://samchui.com/2020/03/12/american ... moUUCVRWEe

If this is still going on in a month or two everybody will be filing Ch11. Even if Delta doesn't "need" to, the carrier that doesn't file will be at a massive disadvantage. UA just took a $2B loan. The cost to carry all this debt is going to be staggering, plus their credit ratings all went to junk or will. Whoever files will shed all of it.
 
F9Animal
Posts: 4411
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:13 am

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:42 pm

Well.... I have to ask this... Anyone remember when Doug Parker said the airline would never lose money again? Anyone get his thoughts as of lately on that outrageous statement? I know he is cocky, but this may come back to haunt him.

I sincerely hope none of the airline go bankrupt, or fail. Some are comparing this virus to the financial crisis the airlines faced after 9/11. It's just awful, and this is all unfolding so fast. So so sad.

https://chiefexecutive.net/american-air ... ug-parker/
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
3holer
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2011 6:14 pm

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:50 pm

So who plagiarized who with this “article”?

This has a date prior to the Sam Chui post....

https://www.ccn.com/fasten-your-belts-american-airlines-investors-flying-into-another-bankruptcy/

Anything for clicks.
 
Nick614
Posts: 25
Joined: Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:55 am

Re: Speculation: American Airlines might file bankruptcy again

Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:53 pm

The amount of debt relative to other operators is irrelevant. While serious, the Wuhan Virus will be gone by the summer.
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