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Derico
Posts: 4418
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 1999 9:14 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:11 am

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Coronavirus Could Bankrupt Most Airlines by End of May, Consultant Warns
By Anurag Kotoky
March 16, 2020, 1:18 AM CDT


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... Wfeqhx3s6Y


Again, where are the CEOs of the big banks of the world?? The world bailed them out several times in the last 30 years, and now they will just call on everyone's debt, company and individuals, like nothing is going on? Am I the only one in the world who thinks the banks should sacrifice big time and have a debt and loan moratorium for everyone? I don't hear anyone else here or in my personal circle say so.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
Arion640
Posts: 3076
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:27 am

FCAFLYBOY wrote:
IAG expects to cut capacity by as much as 75% until May, Willie Walsh to stay on rather than retire during the crisis..

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.expr ... -Group/amp


Can’t see BA running more than a few 787’s on air bridge flights to the US and SIN.

Maybe 77W’s for cargo capacity.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 723
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:34 am

In the recent wake of bids for state aid, could big airline groups be in trouble?

As the state aid will, as its name suggest, be on state level, could this lead to a break up of the big airline groups.

Why should Great Britain help IAG? If they would help, it would be for BA but if it comes with partial state control as a condition (see RBS) it would be good for BA but really bad for IAG. Same would apply for all the airlines under the IAG brand.

Also France would only prop up AF but not KLM and vice versa. This could lead to different conditions for the different airlines and also lead to an end of the "unit".

LH is also in the same corner, if for example the Swiss government rescues Swiss International Airlines it would lead to partial or total loss of control for LH.
 
inkjet7
Posts: 179
Joined: Sat Jan 19, 2019 9:32 am

Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:49 am

FluidFlow wrote:
Also France would only prop up AF but not KLM and vice versa.


The Netherlands government is talking to the French government about AF/KL to avoid any discrepancy in handling the situation.
 
Eikie
Posts: 112
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:15 pm

Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:53 am

[quote="FluidFlow"Also France would only prop up AF but not KLM and vice versa. This could lead to different conditions for the different airlines and also lead to an end of the "unit".

[/quote]
Of course I can't speak for the governments in question and claims now may chance quote quickly, but the Dutch and French ministers of finance are talking with each other about both AF and KLM.

I agree history hasn't shown much coorperation between both countries and airlines, but staying what you are is premature at least.

Especially since we really don't know how bad it is going to get...
 
dabc
Posts: 156
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2018 5:38 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:05 am

Algeria will suspend all flights with Europe starting March 19

Suspension of all flight with Spain starts March 16

Suspension of all flights with France will start March 17

Flights are already suspended with Italy and Morocco
 
Waterbomber2
Posts: 1334
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 3:44 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:12 am

Derico wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Coronavirus Could Bankrupt Most Airlines by End of May, Consultant Warns
By Anurag Kotoky
March 16, 2020, 1:18 AM CDT


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... Wfeqhx3s6Y


Again, where are the CEOs of the big banks of the world?? The world bailed them out several times in the last 30 years, and now they will just call on everyone's debt, company and individuals, like nothing is going on? Am I the only one in the world who thinks the banks should sacrifice big time and have a debt and loan moratorium for everyone? I don't hear anyone else here or in my personal circle say so.


Yes but banks will have problems of their own.
Banks loan money and then lend it with margin against risk. When one customer defaults they can take amorstorium, but when literally everyone is on the brink of defaulting, things get complicated.
Italy was proactive in this as now anyone can suspend loan repayments at will due to force majeure. The Italian govrrnment will then provide a support package to the banks to substitute that cash flow loss which banks can the return as soon as the loaners can start making payments.
This avoids that everyone goes insolvent at the same time.

A similar system could work for the airline industry, or government can opt to capitalise the airlines directly by diluting the exisitng shareholding.

One more solution is helicopter money. A one-time gift to airlines.

However, the right solution would be IMO to involve the airlines in the resolution of the crisis.
Running out of beds in Lombardy,? Charter an AZ A330 to send pax to Sicily for treatment, pay 10 million Euro's for the charter instead of 100.000EUR.
Win-win-win.
 
factsonly
Posts: 2977
Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:08 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:13 am

Finnair cuts capacity by 90% from 1 April, maintains critical air connections for Finland

PRESS RELEASE: 16 March 2020:

As of 1 April, Finnair operates the routes listed below, with a limited number of weekly frequencies, provided that there are no additional travel restrictions set by the authorities. All flights on other routes are cancelled.

Domestic Finland:
- Kuopio
- Mariehamn
- Oulu
- Rovaniemi

During the Easter travel season (early to mid April) Finnair will also operate the following routes: Ivalo, Kittilä, Kuusamo

Europe:
- Amsterdam
- Berlin
- Brussels
- Frankfurt
- London
- Munich
- Paris
- Stockholm
- Zürich

Finnair will also fly to Copenhagen, Moscow, Oslo, St Petersburg, Riga and Tallinn once the travel restrictions to these destinations are lifted.

Intercontinental:
- Tokyo

https://company.finnair.com/en/media/al ... id=3600022
 
Flying-Tiger
Posts: 4053
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:23 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Derico wrote:
flyingclrs727 wrote:
Coronavirus Could Bankrupt Most Airlines by End of May, Consultant Warns
By Anurag Kotoky
March 16, 2020, 1:18 AM CDT


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... Wfeqhx3s6Y


Again, where are the CEOs of the big banks of the world?? The world bailed them out several times in the last 30 years, and now they will just call on everyone's debt, company and individuals, like nothing is going on? Am I the only one in the world who thinks the banks should sacrifice big time and have a debt and loan moratorium for everyone? I don't hear anyone else here or in my personal circle say so.


Yes but banks will have problems of their own.
Banks loan money and then lend it with margin against risk. When one customer defaults they can take amorstorium, but when literally everyone is on the brink of defaulting, things get complicated.
Italy was proactive in this as now anyone can suspend loan repayments at will due to force majeure. The Italian govrrnment will then provide a support package to the banks to substitute that cash flow loss which banks can the return as soon as the loaners can start making payments.
This avoids that everyone goes insolvent at the same time.

A similar system could work for the airline industry, or government can opt to capitalise the airlines directly by diluting the exisitng shareholding.

One more solution is helicopter money. A one-time gift to airlines.

However, the right solution would be IMO to involve the airlines in the resolution of the crisis.
Running out of beds in Lombardy,? Charter an AZ A330 to send pax to Sicily for treatment, pay 10 million Euro's for the charter instead of 100.000EUR.
Win-win-win.


Problem is that all companies tank at the same time, from self-employed up to the multi nationals. Singeling out industries won´t do it, this has to be done in a blanket way with all its pros and cons. IMO the only way is for countries to order banks to hand out loans as requested by companies on regular or government-set interest terms, and have these guaranteed by the government, EZB, FED or even IMF if necessary. At the same time shutting down all stock (and similar) markets to avoid people using this money to gamble.

Practically it means that there will be a certain interim period where all liquidity is guaranteed until things start to return to normal and these guarantees are taken down step by step until they are fully removed.

It avoids priorizing specific industries, especially now where the focus is on stopping or slowing down this.

Won´t be easy decisions by any means though.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A343/346, A359, A380,AT4,AT7,B712, B732/3/4/5/7/8/9,B742/4,B752/3, B762/763,B772/77W,CR2/7/9/K,ER3/4,E70/75/90/95, F50/70/100,M11,L15,SF3,S20, AR8/1, 142/143,... 330.860 miles and counting.
 
DALCE
Posts: 1975
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2007 7:45 pm

Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:24 am

Let me say one thing about this. Nobody with exact knowledge about this will put any information on this forum.
The stakes are too high to inform general public before governments / shareholders etc. let's face it : Aviation is in HUGE trouble, wait for the outcome. Nobody can predict it.
flown: F50,F70,CR1,CR2,CR9,223,E75,E90,143,AR8,AR1,733,735,736,73G,738,
753,763,744,77W,788,319,320,321,333,AB6.
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:26 am

inkjet7 wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
Also France would only prop up AF but not KLM and vice versa.


The Netherlands government is talking to the French government about AF/KL to avoid any discrepancy in handling the situation.


Ok that sounds good, did not know that. So much going on. At least for the AFKLM group, there are only really two countries involved.

For IAG and LH it is a much bigger "problem" involving a lot of different countries and in the case of the UK, IAG and BA there will also soon be a EU/non-EU Regulations problem.
 
contractdog
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2010 2:31 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:29 am

dabc wrote:
Algeria will suspend all flights with Europe starting March 19

Suspension of all flight with Spain starts March 16

Suspension of all flights with France will start March 17

Flights are already suspended with Italy and Morocco


Do you have source regarding the European suspension from the 19th? I see up until yesterday, bizarrely there were STILL flights coming in from Rome to Algiers!
 
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Buyantukhaa
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Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:30 am

AF-KL just announced they'll reduce their flights by 90%.
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
RvA
Posts: 396
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:37 am

Every airline needs help from the governments. Several weeks of flying limited schedules and no demand means they run out of liquidity fast. This is a low margin business and there are a lot of costs that don’t stop just cause the flying stops. For most airlines this will be a temporary measure and they should be ok to repay in 6-24 months depending how long this drags on for.

This is not much different than the other affected industries.
 
 
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SheikhDjibouti
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Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:01 am

RvA wrote:
This is not much different than the other affected industries.

:checkmark: x 1,000

None of my family (currently) work in the aviation sector.

However...every single one of us is concerned as to where the next paycheck is coming from.
Or whether our employers will still be in business in six weeks time.

Yes, airlines have overheads and debts to service even when the planes are all grounded.
So do most businesses.
And my daughter (& son-in-law) are currently stuck with two properties and a huge outstanding loan, because no-one is buying.
(On top of which, I suspect the value of property will take a nose-dive this year, so their debt will probably soon exceed the value of their equity)

If there is going to be a government bail-out, then everybody should get some. Which takes us straight back to zero.

A repayable loan, and some harsh words with the banks and other lenders to make sure they share the pain, yeah, I'll vote for that.
Nothing to see here; move along please.
 
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Braybuddy
Posts: 6755
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:03 am

Just breaking: Ryanair to ground the majority of its fleet over the next week to ten days.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1968
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:07 am

The German state of Baden-Württemberg wants to close all airports for passenger traffic; cargo and repatriation flights are exempt. Starting "later this week", probably between Wednesday and Saturday (my estimate). This would affect the airports of Stuttgart (STR), Baden-Baden (FKB) and Friedrichshafen (FDH) who served some 14 million passengers last year.
https://www.airliners.de/baden-wuerttem ... ehrs/54247 [in German]

IMHO, expect other German states to follow although there is considerable pressure to keep at least MUC and FRA open due to their role as long-haul gateways.

Condor is suspending all flights to countries where German citizens may not enter, including the USA, Dom Rep, Turkey and Morocco. Passengers who are there currently will be rebooked the remaining flights that are scheduled in the next few days.
https://www.airliners.de/condor-fluege- ... ause/54248 [in German]
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:17 am

SheikhDjibouti wrote:
RvA wrote:
This is not much different than the other affected industries.

:checkmark: x 1,000

None of my family (currently) work in the aviation sector.

However...every single one of us is concerned as to where the next paycheck is coming from.
Or whether our employers will still be in business in six weeks time.

Yes, airlines have overheads and debts to service even when the planes are all grounded.
So do most businesses.
And my daughter (& son-in-law) are currently stuck with two properties and a huge outstanding loan, because no-one is buying.
(On top of which, I suspect the value of property will take a nose-dive this year, so their debt will probably soon exceed the value of their equity)

If there is going to be a government bail-out, then everybody should get some. Which takes us straight back to zero.

A repayable loan, and some harsh words with the banks and other lenders to make sure they share the pain, yeah, I'll vote for that.


I get that, and there will probably be bailouts for a lot of business, the actual problem, in my eyes, comes from the terms of said bailouts and if all will do the same thing. Will the bailouts be nationalisation (see Alitalia) and how it affects big airline groups.

What if Spain bails out its airlines by nationalisation? I do not think IAG will be happy, for Iberia it might be the best solution. That might also be a reason IAG has not asked for state aid yet. It could end in a break up of IAG. At the end every country will protect its own businesses. Spain for example has no interest in the well being of non-spanish businesses.

Britain bailed out RBS but it is now a nationalised company. This saved a lot of british citizens. Same might happen with BA and a lot of other former state owned flag carriers.
 
astuteman
Posts: 7151
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:32 am

FluidFlow wrote:
In the recent wake of bids for state aid, could big airline groups be in trouble?

As the state aid will, as its name suggest, be on state level, could this lead to a break up of the big airline groups.

Why should Great Britain help IAG? If they would help, it would be for BA but if it comes with partial state control as a condition (see RBS) it would be good for BA but really bad for IAG. Same would apply for all the airlines under the IAG brand.

Also France would only prop up AF but not KLM and vice versa. This could lead to different conditions for the different airlines and also lead to an end of the "unit".

LH is also in the same corner, if for example the Swiss government rescues Swiss International Airlines it would lead to partial or total loss of control for LH.


As a point of order, IAG have specifically NOT bid for state aid, and in fact are resisting such an approach at present

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51904769

But airlines are not speaking with one voice. IAG, the owner of British Airways, has pointedly not asked for a bailout, and this morning went out of its way to point to its substantial cash reserves - more than £9bn in total.
A senior source at IAG told me that there were "better uses" for taxpayer's money than bailing out airlines - a thinly-veiled jibe at Virgin Atlantic.
IAG's chief executive, Willie Walsh, was vociferous in his opposition to a bail out for Flybe, and it's clear he will also fight a handout for Virgin Atlantic, which is BA's direct competitor on lucrative routes out of Heathrow.


Rgds
 
hooverman
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2011 9:20 pm

Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:42 am

astuteman wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
In the recent wake of bids for state aid, could big airline groups be in trouble?

As the state aid will, as its name suggest, be on state level, could this lead to a break up of the big airline groups.

Why should Great Britain help IAG? If they would help, it would be for BA but if it comes with partial state control as a condition (see RBS) it would be good for BA but really bad for IAG. Same would apply for all the airlines under the IAG brand.

Also France would only prop up AF but not KLM and vice versa. This could lead to different conditions for the different airlines and also lead to an end of the "unit".

LH is also in the same corner, if for example the Swiss government rescues Swiss International Airlines it would lead to partial or total loss of control for LH.


As a point of order, IAG have specifically NOT bid for state aid, and in fact are resisting such an approach at present

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51904769

But airlines are not speaking with one voice. IAG, the owner of British Airways, has pointedly not asked for a bailout, and this morning went out of its way to point to its substantial cash reserves - more than £9bn in total.
A senior source at IAG told me that there were "better uses" for taxpayer's money than bailing out airlines - a thinly-veiled jibe at Virgin Atlantic.
IAG's chief executive, Willie Walsh, was vociferous in his opposition to a bail out for Flybe, and it's clear he will also fight a handout for Virgin Atlantic, which is BA's direct competitor on lucrative routes out of Heathrow.


Rgds


They haven't yet. Once the aid starts flowing they will hold their hands up like all airlines will. Just my :twocents:
 
Scotron12
Posts: 496
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:13 pm

Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:44 am

astuteman wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
In the recent wake of bids for state aid, could big airline groups be in trouble?

As the state aid will, as its name suggest, be on state level, could this lead to a break up of the big airline groups.

Why should Great Britain help IAG? If they would help, it would be for BA but if it comes with partial state control as a condition (see RBS) it would be good for BA but really bad for IAG. Same would apply for all the airlines under the IAG brand.

Also France would only prop up AF but not KLM and vice versa. This could lead to different conditions for the different airlines and also lead to an end of the "unit".

LH is also in the same corner, if for example the Swiss government rescues Swiss International Airlines it would lead to partial or total loss of control for LH.


As a point of order, IAG have specifically NOT bid for state aid, and in fact are resisting such an approach at present

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51904769

But airlines are not speaking with one voice. IAG, the owner of British Airways, has pointedly not asked for a bailout, and this morning went out of its way to point to its substantial cash reserves - more than £9bn in total.
A senior source at IAG told me that there were "better uses" for taxpayer's money than bailing out airlines - a thinly-veiled jibe at Virgin Atlantic.
IAG's chief executive, Willie Walsh, was vociferous in his opposition to a bail out for Flybe, and it's clear he will also fight a handout for Virgin Atlantic, which is BA's direct competitor on lucrative routes out of Heathrow.


Rgds


Ironically, over in Italy, the government is close to taking control of AZ to preserve 11000 jobs. Laudable goal if that is the goal. Says EU will not protest due to current situation.

But, where does the Italian government think AZ will be flying? Doesn't make much sense, unless just an excuse to stop AZ from dying.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5299
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:47 am

astuteman wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
In the recent wake of bids for state aid, could big airline groups be in trouble?

As the state aid will, as its name suggest, be on state level, could this lead to a break up of the big airline groups.

Why should Great Britain help IAG? If they would help, it would be for BA but if it comes with partial state control as a condition (see RBS) it would be good for BA but really bad for IAG. Same would apply for all the airlines under the IAG brand.

Also France would only prop up AF but not KLM and vice versa. This could lead to different conditions for the different airlines and also lead to an end of the "unit".

LH is also in the same corner, if for example the Swiss government rescues Swiss International Airlines it would lead to partial or total loss of control for LH.


As a point of order, IAG have specifically NOT bid for state aid, and in fact are resisting such an approach at present

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51904769

But airlines are not speaking with one voice. IAG, the owner of British Airways, has pointedly not asked for a bailout, and this morning went out of its way to point to its substantial cash reserves - more than £9bn in total.
A senior source at IAG told me that there were "better uses" for taxpayer's money than bailing out airlines - a thinly-veiled jibe at Virgin Atlantic.
IAG's chief executive, Willie Walsh, was vociferous in his opposition to a bail out for Flybe, and it's clear he will also fight a handout for Virgin Atlantic, which is BA's direct competitor on lucrative routes out of Heathrow.


Rgds


At this point, I think it will be the position of all the airlines with stronger balance sheet to not ask for gov't help and file chapter 11 if necessary. That will allow them to restructure if necessary. When the weaker capitalized airlines go under, the remaining ones will come out stronger.

At this point, you can rescue all the airlines. If VS has the worst finances, then it will go under. UK will have still have BA, FR and U2 to pick up all the demand. And VS's LHR slots will be in very high demand.
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:59 am

Unlike the US, Europe does not really have Chapter 11 - it's essentially Chapter 7 or nothing
 
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Pudelhund
Posts: 261
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:59 am

Has anyone thought about how loyalty programs will work if this continues for a long time? I can’t imagine the big airlines will just let all their big spenders downgrade.
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 889
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:08 pm

Perhaps the status of customers in the upper tiers would just be rolled over ? If you qualify for gold status in Dec 2019, then you automatically requalify as gold in Dec 2020
 
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zkojq
Posts: 4346
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 12:42 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
Public takeover of Alitialia close to being enacted:
Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ital ... 00012bf8d6

Shocking, I know...

:banghead: The perfect opportunity to let it die, but no....

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Nickd92 has it right imo, it's impossible for lenders to liquidate assets like aircraft by "taking a bit of a loss" when nobody is in the market for any aircraft, so perhaps you would only find a taker for a 30 million A320 if you go down to 3-5 millions or wait a year or two.


Generally speaking you're right, but I'm sure they'll be a few Hedge Funds jumping in and making a killing off some airline/lessor's desperation to raise cash.
First to fly the 787-9
 
PANAMsterdam
Posts: 268
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:45 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:28 pm

Airline (related) stocks crashing again:

European stocks at 1:20pm CET:
Airbus -17,50%
AirFrance/KLM -16,50%
EasyJet -16,50%
Lufthansa -11,50%
International Airlines Group -25%
Ryanair -19,50%
Tui Group -35,50%

Pre-market trading on Wallstreet
Alaska Airlines -14,50%
American Airlines -17%
Boeing Company -13,50%
Delta Airlines -13,50%
JetBlue -13%
Southwest Airlines -13%
Spirit Airlines -14,50%
United Airlines -18%

Source: Yahoo Finance
Every country has an airline. The world has Pan Am.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8230
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:33 pm

zkojq wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Public takeover of Alitialia close to being enacted:
Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ital ... 00012bf8d6

Shocking, I know...

:banghead: The perfect opportunity to let it die, but no....

Waterbomber2 wrote:
Nickd92 has it right imo, it's impossible for lenders to liquidate assets like aircraft by "taking a bit of a loss" when nobody is in the market for any aircraft, so perhaps you would only find a taker for a 30 million A320 if you go down to 3-5 millions or wait a year or two.


Generally speaking you're right, but I'm sure they'll be a few Hedge Funds jumping in and making a killing off some airline/lessor's desperation to raise cash.


Pres. Herbert Hoover was smart enough to recognize that his Treasury Secretary was a destructive idiot:

In his memoirs, Hoover wrote that Mellon advised him to "liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. ... enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people."

You have no way of knowing what market-clearing prices will be, or that assets will quickly be re-organized for purposeful use.
 
mxaxai
Posts: 1968
Joined: Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:29 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:38 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:
Tui Group -35,50%

Tui Group stocks lost 79 % compared to their latest high on Nov 27 2019, and almost 90 % less than their 5 year high in May 2018. That's an impressive method to burn shareholder's cash. I don't understand how anybody is seriously selling their stocks right now.
 
RvA
Posts: 396
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:44 pm

Interestingly the demand for cargo seems to be making some airlines consider using some pax aircraft and just fly them for the cargo loads. Heard this anecdotally (besides China, NYC and MXP are in high demand for cargo).
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:57 pm

Odds the passenger airline industry is temporarily grounded in the US?
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
lowwkjax
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:58 pm

Austrian Airlines to suspend operations from Thursday on, OS 66 from ORD is the last flight (departing Wednesday).

Interesting as this is the first airline in the LH group, wouldn’t be surprised to see the others follow.

https://volksblatt.at/coronavirus-aua-s ... holfluege/
 
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GCT64
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Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:00 pm

hooverman wrote:
astuteman wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
In the recent wake of bids for state aid, could big airline groups be in trouble?

As the state aid will, as its name suggest, be on state level, could this lead to a break up of the big airline groups.

Why should Great Britain help IAG? If they would help, it would be for BA but if it comes with partial state control as a condition (see RBS) it would be good for BA but really bad for IAG. Same would apply for all the airlines under the IAG brand.

Also France would only prop up AF but not KLM and vice versa. This could lead to different conditions for the different airlines and also lead to an end of the "unit".

LH is also in the same corner, if for example the Swiss government rescues Swiss International Airlines it would lead to partial or total loss of control for LH.


As a point of order, IAG have specifically NOT bid for state aid, and in fact are resisting such an approach at present

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51904769

But airlines are not speaking with one voice. IAG, the owner of British Airways, has pointedly not asked for a bailout, and this morning went out of its way to point to its substantial cash reserves - more than £9bn in total.
A senior source at IAG told me that there were "better uses" for taxpayer's money than bailing out airlines - a thinly-veiled jibe at Virgin Atlantic.
IAG's chief executive, Willie Walsh, was vociferous in his opposition to a bail out for Flybe, and it's clear he will also fight a handout for Virgin Atlantic, which is BA's direct competitor on lucrative routes out of Heathrow.


Rgds


They haven't yet. Once the aid starts flowing they will hold their hands up like all airlines will. Just my :twocents:


IAG have been very explicit that they do not think that state aid should go to airlines.
Of course, if VS succeeds in getting aid then you cannot expect BA not to also seek support - that would be foolish.
Personally as a UK taxpayer, I'm against VS getting state aid, plenty of other businesses (especially small ones) need it as much or more than VS and airlines shouldn't be a special case.
Flown in: A20N,A21N,A30B,A306,A310,A319,A320,A321,A332,A333,A343,A346,A359,A388,BA11,BU31,(..56 more types..),VC10,WESX
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:03 pm

I know that this is an airline forum, but how comparable goods such as state railroaded in Europe doing?
Last edited by NameOmitted on Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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DL717
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:03 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Odds the passenger airline industry is temporarily grounded in the US?


I don’t think we’ll see a full grounding, but maybe regional bans to high case states/cities. If they do, it’ll make 9/11 look like a cake walk. I think we’re at or close to the impact of 9/11 already.
Funny. It only took one pandemic for those who argue endlessly about natural selection to stop believing in natural selection.
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:10 pm

Just saw a reporter on NBC at ATL. The place looks like a ghost town.
 
PANAMsterdam
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:14 pm

DL717 wrote:
I think we’re at or close to the impact of 9/11 already.


Far far beyond the post 9/11 aviation crisis. European airlines didn't cut 75% up to 100% of their schedules in the aftermath of 9/11. Only the American airlines were grounded for a couple of days, but even they were restarting with small schedules a few days afterwards.

Check the web archive for some interesting press releases of the airlines around 9/11. For instance this one from United. Restarting their operations on September 14th, three days after they lost 2 aircraft and all aircraft were grounded.
Every country has an airline. The world has Pan Am.
 
CX Flyboy
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:18 pm

qf789 wrote:
PacoMartin wrote:
dcajet wrote:
Air New Zealand suspends 85% of its international flying until June. Suspending LAX-LHR, AKL-ORD, IAH, SFO, EZE, YVR, NRT, HNL, DPS, TPE.


Sounds like only 7 international destinations left
Adelaide, Brisbane, Gold Coast,Melbourne, Sydney, Hong Kong, Los Angeles

LAX to London–Heathrow was supposed to end 23 October 2020. If they can't sell tickets for the LAX-LHR section only, they may just stop flying now.


NZ hasn’t operated to HKG in over a month.


The HKG stoppage was planned a while ago as part of their RR 787 grounding. Cathay are flying services on behalf of ANZ with a CX flight number (albeit a 4 digit one)
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:22 pm

3 x Virgin Atlantic A346 transferred LGW-PIK over the weekend for mid term storage. The secondary runway there is being prepped for storage of up to 12 aircraft, said locally/anecdotally to be all Virgin fleet. Info gleamed from various PIK themed boards and Facebook groups.
 
mxaxai
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:24 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
I know that this is an airline forum, but how comparable goods such as state railroaded in Europe doing?

Reduced frequencies on long-haul and regional routes in continental Europe but a core network remains operational (comparable to week-end schedules). High-speed lines see more reductions than local services. Most transborder services only for cargo due to the recent border closures.

See here: https://www.thetrainline.com/trains/cor ... nformation
Last edited by mxaxai on Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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cathay747
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Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:27 pm

If governments are smart...which of course they aren't MANY times...they should simply do a cost analysis. For any country with an unemployment "safety net" scheme like the U.S. (I don't know how many other countries have such a social program), if an airline fails, all those employees will wind up on that scheme. It strikes me that bailing out the airline would cost more a la AZ...but whichever option would ultimately cost the govt. LESS, then go that route...and part of that figuring should be the possibility that any "loan" might not actually get repaid. Any personal financial advisor will tell you that you should never loan money to somebody unless you can truly afford to part with it as if it were a gift, because your chances of being repaid aren't very high.
Try a Little VC-10derness
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:27 pm

If we end up with a major recession, Govt will not have the money to bail every company out. Various things are critical to a country - eg law/order, education system, healthcare, military capable of defence from other countries/organisations wishing to take advantage, domestic transport system, gas/oil/electricity supply, etc...
Keeping one airline legally alive with enough core people to be able to expand back to normal size later in a major economy might be worthwhile until the economy recovers, but bailing out the whole aviation ecosystem just isn't possible
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:28 pm

DL717 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
Odds the passenger airline industry is temporarily grounded in the US?


I don’t think we’ll see a full grounding, but maybe regional bans to high case states/cities. If they do, it’ll make 9/11 look like a cake walk. I think we’re at or close to the impact of 9/11 already.


I dont think thatll work though. It really needs to be an all or nothing if they go that route.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:34 pm

U of WA medical teams did a one hour television forum on the virus. Focus of the program was how they would staff essential services. Look after the health of patients, staff, staffs' children, staffs' old age parents. I cannot find a link, what they had to say is relevant to any industry needing workers on the actual physical front. It was a one hour program and answered a lot of questions. Maybe some one here can find the link. I will be home in about 2 hours and work at finding it. What impressed me is their confidence they can do it. The the procedures they will use are relevant to anyone working with others or the public.
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par13del
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Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:55 pm

In past threads we have heard about the differences between the USA and Europe where the social safety in Europe is much more extensive.
If the airlines in Europe are not flying and staff are laid off, will they immediately receive state aid in which case that salary burden on the airlines are minimized?
If accurate, what would be the primary need for state aid, payments on debt for a/c not being used, under circumstances like this, can the banks still demand payment when the nation is shut down by government order?

All questions, trying to understand the details.
 
mattyfitzg
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Re: Discussion: Troubles for European Airline Groups, IAG, AFKLM, LH-Group

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:00 pm

Personally I don’t think the government will award any aid. Virgin need it, while other U.K. carriers (Easy, Jet2, BA) are sitting on healthy cash reserves which will likely see them through this ordeal, and all are companies which will pick up the slack from any more airlines going caput.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:02 pm

I'm flying tomorrow from MIA-CDG, seats look wide open.
@DadCelo
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:05 pm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cathay-pacific-aicrafts-boc-aviation/hong-kongs-cathay-pacific-to-sell-six-boeing-aircrafts-to-boc-aviation-idUSKBN2131OI

Good news for CX, BOC Aviation just injected 700 million USD of their cash into purchasing/leasing planes to CX that would have an incredibly tough time getting remarketed should CX fold.
 
TGV
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - March 2020 - Part II

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:06 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
I know that this is an airline forum, but how comparable goods such as state railroaded in Europe doing?

In France frequencies of service are being reduced gradually : tomorrow Tuesday 50% of long distance trains will be running
Reference (In French, sorry)
https://www.linternaute.com/sortir/magazine/1341181-trafic-sncf-la-moitie-des-tgv-ouigo-et-intercites-en-circulation-mardi/

If a confinement order (similar to what happens in Italy and Spain) is given by Président Macron this evening (nation adress at 20:00 French Time), which is very likely, more cuts will be required, as there will be very few people able to travel.
I will never fly again 777 with 3-4-3 config in Y

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