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wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:16 pm

It wouldn't surprise me if DL closes the SEA hub. It's probably the weakest out of all of them.
 
Boof02671
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:20 pm

Brickell305 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
The cut to RDU came BEFORE LHR was added to the travel ban. That was lack of demand.

Once again when the Feds put the ban on everywhere EXCEPT the UK, CLT, PHL and RDU were not approved cities to keep flying to LHR

The approved gateway airports at the time only applied to Schengen airports. PHL/CLT-LHR only got cut after the ban was extended to the U.K. RDU was cut prior to that before the list of approved airports applied to U.K. passengers.

I live in CLT my son’s mom works for AA CLT, RDU and PHL were cut before the ban was extended. Go read the press releases from AA. AA was keeping JFK, DFW, LAX, MIA and others before the ban extended.
 
aaway
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:24 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
enilria wrote:
SMX to All appears suspended from JUN to SEP. Why?
*UA DEN-SMX JUN 0.9>0[0] JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 1.0>0[0] SEP 1.0>0[0]
**UA LAX-SMX JUN 0.9>0[0] JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 1.0>0[0] SEP 1.0>0[0]
**UA SFO-SMX JUN 0.9>0[0] JUL 1.0>0[0] AUG 1.0>0[0] SEP 1.0>0[0]


New station start-up. Probably not much point to open it up when the demand won't be there. They can also easily reaccommodate 45 mins to the North or South out of SBP or SBA.


Also, considering the circumstances, any subsidy monies associated with the service would be exhausted. Definitely prudent to postpone this start-up.
"The greatest mistake you can make in life is to continually be afraid you will make one." - Elbert Hubbard
 
Brickell305
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:25 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
Once again when the Feds put the ban on everywhere EXCEPT the UK, CLT, PHL and RDU were not approved cities to keep flying to LHR

The approved gateway airports at the time only applied to Schengen airports. PHL/CLT-LHR only got cut after the ban was extended to the U.K. RDU was cut prior to that before the list of approved airports applied to U.K. passengers.

I live in CLT my son’s mom works for AA CLT, RDU and PHL were cut before the ban was extended. Go read the press releases from AA. AA was keeping JFK, DFW, LAX, MIA and others before the ban extended.

This was the AA press release prior to the ban extension. http://news.aa.com/news/news-details/20 ... fault.aspx

Notice RDU-LHR is suspended and no mention of CLT/PHL-LHR.
 
afcjets
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:33 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if DL closes the SEA hub. It's probably the weakest out of all of them.

SEA doesn't need two airline hubs anyway.
 
SA280
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:37 pm

I was expecting deeper cuts in the domestic market.
 
Brickell305
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:42 pm

wedgetail737 wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if DL closes the SEA hub. It's probably the weakest out of all of them.

I expect the same for AA @ JFK. They’ve suspended all long haul flights out of there including LHR. There’s no longer a need for domestic feeder flights. Might just be flights to Caribbean, MIA, transcon and maybe DFW for the foreseeable future.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:48 pm

incitatus wrote:
Elniria spoke too soon calling these cuts Armageddon. This is just the beginning.

Armageddon Part1
OzarkD9S wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

They've already announced domestic cuts. They're not going to sub widebodies generally and wind up running just 1/3-1/2 the frequency.


They may have to. Depends on the seniority of flight crews. If airlines start laying off employees at unionized airlines, they have to start at the bottom. International/widebody crews tend to be more senior. Even DL may have to keep widebody qualified FA's working even if they aren't unionized, the pilots are. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Excellent point
Boof02671 wrote:
AA cut RDU, CLT and PHL to LHR as those cities were not an approved gateway by the Feds.

Good point
AirFiero wrote:
incitatus wrote:
Elniria spoke too soon calling these cuts Armageddon. This is just the beginning.


Actually, the big cuts seem to be happening *now*, but quietly. In other words the real cuts aren’t published.

If I were to bet, I’d say the worst of this will be over in April, *maybe* May, then things will slowly get back to normal.

If they are really parking hundreds of planes they can't jsut start flying them again so easily. Maintenance, crew refresher training, etc
WidebodyPTV wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
Actually, the big cuts seem to be happening *now*, but quietly. In other words the real cuts aren’t published.

If I were to bet, I’d say the worst of this will be over in April, *maybe* May, then things will slowly get back to normal.


It could take years before things get back to normal. Things are going to get worse before they'll get better :(.

Depends how you define as normal. This thing will have permanent impacts just like 9/11 did. I think next Summer will be at service levels that are much higher than this Summer will end up. The question is the 15 months between now and then.
Midwestindy wrote:
How many passengers are there to lose at this point?......Preserving frequency to satisfy consumers is NOT the thing to be doing right now.

When demand is back, then you can worry about preserving market share

From what I am seeing in terms of actual data, we are down about 40% now, but the bottom is going to drop out after Spring Break. Maybe 70+% down.
wedgetail737 wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if DL closes the SEA hub. It's probably the weakest out of all of them.

Agree it's weak, but I don't see them giving up on a strategic effort like that.
afcjets wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if DL closes the SEA hub. It's probably the weakest out of all of them.

SEA doesn't need two airline hubs anyway.

The can also stay in and perhaps kill AS or put them in Ch11.
SA280 wrote:
I was expecting deeper cuts in the domestic market.

Part 1.
As stated earlier in the thread, I think what they are doing is cancelling only with 72 hours notice so most customers change their plans prior to that when they can't get a refund.
 
babastud
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:00 pm

afcjets wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if DL closes the SEA hub. It's probably the weakest out of all of them.

SEA doesn't need two airline hubs anyway.


Agreed, SEA has been way over served for some time now.
 
onwFan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:14 pm

SEA is AS’s primary and largest hub and one of DL’s smallest and probably weakest hub. If it comes down to survival, SEA will be the basket AS would want to put their eggs into. The same is not true about DL, especially for cutting costs - just my thought, but given the current circumstances; you never know what is going to happen tomorrow.
 
incitatus
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:22 pm

SEA has been a booming town leading the growth in tech jobs in the US. Both DL and AA made the right moves deciding on growing on SEA based on expectations that are now only older than a few weeks. The big question now is whether that growth prospect can hold.
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LAXdude1023
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:22 pm

How bad this is depends on how long this drags out. If we can get this under control in the next couple of months (or flaten the curve as the say), the airlines should weather this fine. If were still dealing with exponential increases in case loads across the world in six months, there will be many airlines that exist today that wont be here then.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
WA707atMSP
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:38 pm

enilria wrote:
incitatus wrote:
Elniria spoke too soon calling these cuts Armageddon. This is just the beginning.

Armageddon Part1
OzarkD9S wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

If I were to bet, I’d say the worst of this will be over in April, *maybe* May, then things will slowly get back to normal.


It could take years before things get back to normal. Things are going to get worse before they'll get better :(.

Depends how you define as normal. This thing will have permanent impacts just like 9/11 did. I think next Summer will be at service levels that are much higher than this Summer will end up. The question is the 15 months between now and then.


Even if Coronavirus is brought under control quickly, I think it won't be until 2023 or 2024 until air service fully recovers, because I think Coronavirus is going to tip the global economy into a recession. Once the economy goes into recession, then airlines will permanently cut hubs and focus cities where they are losing money and / or have other hubs nearby. AA at JFK tops the list, but I also think UA's hubs at LAX and IAD are at risk of being downsized due to proximity to SFO and EWR, and DL's BNA and RDU focus cities may be pulled down because of proximity to ATL.
 
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DBCoop3r
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:38 pm

incitatus wrote:
SEA has been a booming town leading the growth in tech jobs in the US. Both DL and AA made the right moves deciding on growing on SEA based on expectations that are now only older than a few weeks. The big question now is whether that growth prospect can hold.


Yep. Amazing that people think an airport that got 52 million passengers last year and growing can't support 2 hubs.

DL makes plenty of money at SEA, they aren't going anywhere.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:02 pm

enilria wrote:
SA280 wrote:
I was expecting deeper cuts in the domestic market.

Part 1.
As stated earlier in the thread, I think what they are doing is cancelling only with 72 hours notice so most customers change their plans prior to that when they can't get a refund.


As long as the carrier has suspended change fees - and at this point, hasn't everyone? - I'm not sure I can get too worked up over not refunding nonrefundable fares. That's especially true where the carrier is offering a refund if the credit isn't used in a certain time period, like UA is doing.
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IAHWorldflyer
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:18 pm

IAH is not on the list of approved entry airports for EU/UK flights, so ALL European service to and from IAH is suspended. Additionally, flights to PEK, EZE and SCL are also suspended. I think NH is the only operator on IAH-TYO at this time. Terminal D is going to be very quiet.
 
afcjets
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:30 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
SA280 wrote:
I was expecting deeper cuts in the domestic market.

Part 1.
As stated earlier in the thread, I think what they are doing is cancelling only with 72 hours notice so most customers change their plans prior to that when they can't get a refund.


As long as the carrier has suspended change fees - and at this point, hasn't everyone? - I'm not sure I can get too worked up over not refunding nonrefundable fares. That's especially true where the carrier is offering a refund if the credit isn't used in a certain time period, like UA is doing.


:checkmark:

It's not like Eastern or TWA that is trying to make payroll, Delta made $6 billion last year and is likely going to get a government bailout anyway.

Delta is a profitable cash rich airline that is trying to optimize their operation in an extremely volatile situation to minimize the long term financial impact, not trap customers with a credit.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:39 pm

afcjets wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
Part 1.
As stated earlier in the thread, I think what they are doing is cancelling only with 72 hours notice so most customers change their plans prior to that when they can't get a refund.


As long as the carrier has suspended change fees - and at this point, hasn't everyone? - I'm not sure I can get too worked up over not refunding nonrefundable fares. That's especially true where the carrier is offering a refund if the credit isn't used in a certain time period, like UA is doing.


:checkmark:

It's not like Eastern or TWA that is trying to make payroll, Delta made $6 billion last year and is likely going to get a government bailout anyway.

Delta is a profitable cash rich airline that is trying to optimize their operation in an extremely volatile situation to minimize the long term financial impact, not trap customers with a credit.


I think the most important word in your post is "volatile." Carriers are trying to manage a situation for which there is no road map, and I expect that that means that some indivdual customers will see some results that, in a vacuum, appear unfair. That doesn't mean that the carriers are acting with ill intentions.

For instance, on Friday I cancelled an Airbnb stay and needed their staff to intervene and authorize a refund (which I got) because at the time that I cancelled, the reservation was not subject to a blanket refund policy. Had I waited until yesterday to cancel, I would have gotten the refund automatically, without human intervention.
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FLL2go
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:11 pm

Definitely Armageddon Part 1. I expect at least 3 times more cuts next week for April and May across the board with even more International cuts going into Q3. FWIW schedule change is normally loaded Saturday night - however the OAG cutoff can be as late as the preceding Wednesday. Additionally, changes need to be given to codeshare partners up to 10 days in advance to synchronize Marketing/Operating flight numbers.

Also very appreciative of the call center and reservation agents working double shifts to help accommodate most likely tens of millions of customers.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:17 pm

babastud wrote:
afcjets wrote:
wedgetail737 wrote:
It wouldn't surprise me if DL closes the SEA hub. It's probably the weakest out of all of them.

SEA doesn't need two airline hubs anyway.


Agreed, SEA has been way over served for some time now.


DL can also selectively prioritize SEA over everywhere else and destroy AS. They might not have made this decision prior to AA/AS partnership, but that partnership got DL's attention now.

From the mentioned cuts so far, it seems like RDU focus city is the one that's getting sacrificed in the short term, since that faces no determined competition.

Aside from that, it's between BOS, LAX and SEA on which ones will get cut more often. LAX is unlikely to choice there. So it's between BOS and SEA. They may think at present time that they can keep both. It really depends how long this goes. The longer it goes (let's say 4 to 6 months), the longer it will take demand to come back, then they will have to pick between the two or maybe both. At this point, they have more invested in SEA, so it's more likely they will keep sinking money there. Remember, by keeping capacity at SEA, they can gain gates over time if AS has to start cutting back. And AS will have to cut back soon.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:44 pm

I admittedly was implying DL ending the hub in SEA just the stir the pot a little. But pretty much all of the overseas flights have evaporated or going to be cut because of the travel bans/lack of customers. But with the SEA area being the US epicenter for the Corona Virus, I'm surprised it hasn't gone downhill sooner.
 
BAINY3
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:07 pm

DTWLAX wrote:
DL suspended all MSP-AMS and MSP-CDG flights starting March 14th.

https://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/ ... yptr=yahoo

Is DL the first airline to suspend all hub-to-hub routes from a particular hub? MSP-ICN is also gone.

Although based on the AMS services that DL is keeping open, I believe Delta would have liked to keep a 1x daily MSP-AMS but could not because MSP didn't get added to the approved arrival airports list. They kept a daily DTW-AMS and ATL-AMS, for example.
 
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BWIAirport
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:26 pm

Man, that sucks to see BWI-LAX cut. I thought that was doing well.
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:36 pm

Not surprised to see AS cut BWI-LAX IMO. Outside of COVID19 one can usually find a cheap deal on that route in comparison to DCA/IAD.

I'm honestly surprised to see UA still on the route...
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tb727
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:54 pm

Packson wrote:
FlyHossD wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
Can you maintain currency with sim time alone?

Could they have pilots come in and do a few touch and gos in a sim and be good for the month?


If the sim is landings certified, in many cases, yes, it can be used for landings credit. Landings currency is based on a 90 day window (not a month), as I recall.


Landings are 90 day cycle. The bigger problem is going to be all the pilots who just finished up, are in training or about to start. Pilots have to accumulate 100 hours on new planes (a few exceptions exist) within 120 days. With such a large volume of cancelled flights and with some international fleets losing 75-85% percent of their flying.... consolidation will be impossible!


Should be able to get around the consolidation with a line check. That should give an extension to get it done.
Too lazy to work, too scared to steal!
 
afcjets
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:06 pm

tphuang wrote:
babastud wrote:
afcjets wrote:
SEA doesn't need two airline hubs anyway.
Agreed, SEA has been way over served for some time now.
DL can also selectively prioritize SEA over everywhere else and destroy AS. They might not have made this decision prior to AA/AS partnership, but that partnership got DL's attention now.

The people of Seattle might not soon forget if Delta used a short lived global pandemic as a way to prioritize destroying their beloved hometown airline of almost 100 years.
 
WA707atMSP
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:30 pm

afcjets wrote:
tphuang wrote:
babastud wrote:
Agreed, SEA has been way over served for some time now.
DL can also selectively prioritize SEA over everywhere else and destroy AS. They might not have made this decision prior to AA/AS partnership, but that partnership got DL's attention now.

The people of Seattle might not soon forget if Delta used a short lived global pandemic as a way to prioritize destroying their beloved hometown airline of almost 100 years.


I'm not a DL fanboy, but I think 99% of people in Seattle won't care if DL destroys AS.

In 1981/82, AA decided to accelerate Braniff's demise. Even though Braniff's ties to DFW were just as strong as AS' ties to SEA are, once Braniff was gone, most people became AA loyalists. Braniff tried to re launch in 1984, two years after they had shut down, but their efforts failed because AA had become DFW's hometown airline.
 
afcjets
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:42 am

WA707atMSP wrote:
afcjets wrote:
tphuang wrote:
DL can also selectively prioritize SEA over everywhere else and destroy AS. They might not have made this decision prior to AA/AS partnership, but that partnership got DL's attention now.

The people of Seattle might not soon forget if Delta used a short lived global pandemic as a way to prioritize destroying their beloved hometown airline of almost 100 years.


I'm not a DL fanboy, but I think 99% of people in Seattle won't care if DL destroys AS.

In 1981/82, AA decided to accelerate Braniff's demise. Even though Braniff's ties to DFW were just as strong as AS' ties to SEA are, once Braniff was gone, most people became AA loyalists. Braniff tried to re launch in 1984, two years after they had shut down, but their efforts failed because AA had become DFW's hometown airline.


There are several differences though. DFW was also home to AA, Braniff and AA were in the same league, and AS is not on the demise like Braniff was.
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:46 am

bluefltspecial wrote:
I'm curious to see where US carriers put all those widebodies... I know a number of them will get parked, but maybe we'll see some nice upgrades until domestic air travel is shut down in the US, too.


Per the PIT thread: AA has a few A333s parked at PIT (two from PHL and at least one from CLT; more may be coming) while UA reportedly may park some w/b jets at PIT as well (I'm guessing they don't have that much space at EWR/ORD/IAD).
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
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MAH4546
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:48 am

Boof02671 wrote:
Brickell305 wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
AA cut RDU, CLT and PHL to LHR as those cities were not an approved gateway by the Feds.

The cut to RDU came BEFORE LHR was added to the travel ban. That was lack of demand.

Once again when the Feds put the ban on everywhere EXCEPT the UK, CLT, PHL and RDU were not approved cities to keep flying to LHR


But once again, AA decided to suspend RDULHR before that ban was announced.
a.
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:55 am

chonetsao wrote:
Why didn't AA keep some degree of flexibility for April? The current ban last for 30 days. It is likely this ban would be lifted before 15th April. What AA could do was to have a temporary schedule between 13th April to 5th May, and then decide whether to operate or not following the status of the ban. Such deep cut into May in one go seems to be too drastic and do not leave any room for manoeuvre. I am sure AA have done some home work and know the market reaction. I am just curious that what they know.


You're also presuming the ban will in fact be lifted on 15 April. Given how quickly we've gotten to this point with no seemingly set time frame for when anything will even remotely start returning to some level of normal, whether in the US, Italy or wherever, there's no guarantee that President Trump's air travel suspension to Europe will be lifted by that time.

Could AA be overreacting? Possibly. Could they be predicting correctly? That's possible too.
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ctrabs0114
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:58 am

ericm2031 wrote:
Has WN not made any close-in cuts yet? Or do they just not show up on here? There's got to be some weakness that can be pulled on the intra-CA/TX routes, FL, LAS, etc.


What's there left to cut for WN at this point? I would think the 3M8 cuts alone would've right-sized the network pre-COVID19 ... unless they haven't finalized those plans yet.
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United1
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:02 am

UA is going to announce a 50% cut in flying tomorrow morning...April, May and into summer.

Oscar informed employees today and there was a press release this evening.
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tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:06 am

ctrabs0114 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Has WN not made any close-in cuts yet? Or do they just not show up on here? There's got to be some weakness that can be pulled on the intra-CA/TX routes, FL, LAS, etc.


What's there left to cut for WN at this point? I would think the 3M8 cuts alone would've right-sized the network pre-COVID19 ... unless they haven't finalized those plans yet.


They should at minimum cut 50% of flights into MCO/LAS/TPA to start off. With disney closing, convention traffic going down to zero, there isn't much demand left for these places.
 
Corpsnerd09
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:56 am

tphuang wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Has WN not made any close-in cuts yet? Or do they just not show up on here? There's got to be some weakness that can be pulled on the intra-CA/TX routes, FL, LAS, etc.


What's there left to cut for WN at this point? I would think the 3M8 cuts alone would've right-sized the network pre-COVID19 ... unless they haven't finalized those plans yet.


They should at minimum cut 50% of flights into MCO/LAS/TPA to start off. With disney closing, convention traffic going down to zero, there isn't much demand left for these places.


MGM is also closing all casinos on the strip, so LAS traffic is about to implode.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:10 am

I am guessing US airlines will be grounded by end of the week probably for 3-4 weeks. Industry in the dumpster for the next 3-5 years before we get back to 2019 levels.

2020 sucks.
 
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admanager
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:25 am

[list=][/list]
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I am guessing US airlines will be grounded by end of the week probably for 3-4 weeks. Industry in the dumpster for the next 3-5 years before we get back to 2019 levels.

2020 sucks.


CDC today said 8 WEEKS.
In an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now advising against gatherings of 50 people or more for the next eight weeks,
So in round numbers we're looking at mid-May, assuming no unforeseen issues.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:28 am

We can't go that long for natiional security / infrastructure needs of a total shutdown, but we could easily be down to a short-term shutdown and then a bare-minimum essential air travel over the next 1-2 months.

I predict a 1-2 week total shutdown, returning with about 30% of domestic capacity and a slow ramp afterward
 
strfyr51
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:29 am

incitatus wrote:
SEA has been a booming town leading the growth in tech jobs in the US. Both DL and AA made the right moves deciding on growing on SEA based on expectations that are now only older than a few weeks. The big question now is whether that growth prospect can hold.

SEA is the equivalent of Silicon Valley in the Bay Area. To cut and Run at this point? Would make Delta look like a bunch of "Carpetbaggers"
Hell! it's bad enough they Invaded AS's home town then can't seal the deal even to Asia. Now? the first sign of difficulty? you say Cut and Run?
What does that say about Delta? And? What will Alaska Say about Delta more importantly? Because Alaska Can acquire larger longer range airplanes to make Delta's life miserable, Which Delta actually would have forced them to DO!! Delta Picked this fight !! They cannot just walk away!!
 
alfa164
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:04 am

afcjets wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
afcjets wrote:
The people of Seattle might not soon forget if Delta used a short lived global pandemic as a way to prioritize destroying their beloved hometown airline of almost 100 years.

I'm not a DL fanboy, but I think 99% of people in Seattle won't care if DL destroys AS. In 1981/82, AA decided to accelerate Braniff's demise. Even though Braniff's ties to DFW were just as strong as AS' ties to SEA are, once Braniff was gone, most people became AA loyalists. Braniff tried to re launch in 1984, two years after they had shut down, but their efforts failed because AA had become DFW's hometown airline.

There are several differences though. DFW was also home to AA, Braniff and AA were in the same league, and AS is not on the demise like Braniff was.


No, not exactly. AA moved to DFW in 1979 from New York City. To say DFW was "home" to AA is stretching that definition. AA was never considered to be a "home town airline" in the DFW area; Southwest and Braniff held that title. It did come in as a voracious - some might say vicious - predator (I am sure there are past threads about the "dirty tricks" AA is alleged to have taken) and, in the end, successfully drove BI - who was already struggling after over-expansion - out of business
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intotheair
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:20 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I am guessing US airlines will be grounded by end of the week probably for 3-4 weeks. Industry in the dumpster for the next 3-5 years before we get back to 2019 levels.

2020 sucks.


I think you're right. Even if there's no top-down federal ban, who's going to be flying in the next few weeks? This is going to shake the airlines to their cores.
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afcjets
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:15 pm

alfa164 wrote:
afcjets wrote:
There are several differences though. DFW was also home to AA, Braniff and AA were in the same league, and AS is not on the demise like Braniff was.


No, not exactly. AA moved to DFW in 1979 from New York City. To say DFW was "home" to AA is stretching that definition. AA was never considered to be a "home town airline" in the DFW area; Southwest and Braniff held that title. It did come in as a voracious - some might say vicious - predator (I am sure there are past threads about the "dirty tricks" AA is alleged to have taken) and, in the end, successfully drove BI - who was already struggling after over-expansion - out of business


We can disagree that American considers DFW it's hometown vs. NYC but further down you proove my point. If you think American appeared to be a vicious predator developing their largest hub with a similiar size airline only a few years post deregulation that's in demise anyway, just think how much more of one the world's third largest airline would appear to be one if they target a small established, financially healthy, mostly regional airline at their only hub (no, I don't consider PDX to be a hub with it's near zero connections and 1-2 flights to most destinations and where half or more flights are Horizon) with their smallest hub after a global pandemic.
Last edited by afcjets on Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
klwright69
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:39 pm

I think with UA there will be cuts across the board. No hub will be spared. I think that'll be the case with others too. UA would be shortsighted to really go after IAD and LAX specifically. Those are important strategic markets. Speaking of UA, not grasping at new hubs and focus cities at this time seems like a good plan now. Also, I checked and saw that on UA LHR to IAH was in the air. There was no mention of any diversion to DFW or anything abnormal.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:22 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
SA280 wrote:
I was expecting deeper cuts in the domestic market.

Part 1.
As stated earlier in the thread, I think what they are doing is cancelling only with 72 hours notice so most customers change their plans prior to that when they can't get a refund.


As long as the carrier has suspended change fees - and at this point, hasn't everyone? - I'm not sure I can get too worked up over not refunding nonrefundable fares. That's especially true where the carrier is offering a refund if the credit isn't used in a certain time period, like UA is doing.

If the airline cancels your flight you get a refund, not a credit. There may be an exception if the flight is cancelled by an act of god.

The airlines are hoping passengers will take the credit, not the refund so they are waiting until the last minute to allow you to cancel and get a refund.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:24 pm

FLL2go wrote:
Definitely Armageddon Part 1. I expect at least 3 times more cuts next week for April and May across the board with even more International cuts going into Q3. FWIW schedule change is normally loaded Saturday night - however the OAG cutoff can be as late as the preceding Wednesday. Additionally, changes need to be given to codeshare partners up to 10 days in advance to synchronize Marketing/Operating flight numbers.

Also very appreciative of the call center and reservation agents working double shifts to help accommodate most likely tens of millions of customers.

I think we will continue to see less hit OAG than we expect because airlines will purposefully cancel very close in.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:25 pm

tphuang wrote:
babastud wrote:
afcjets wrote:
SEA doesn't need two airline hubs anyway.


Agreed, SEA has been way over served for some time now.


DL can also selectively prioritize SEA over everywhere else and destroy AS. They might not have made this decision prior to AA/AS partnership, but that partnership got DL's attention now.

From the mentioned cuts so far, it seems like RDU focus city is the one that's getting sacrificed in the short term, since that faces no determined competition.

Aside from that, it's between BOS, LAX and SEA on which ones will get cut more often. LAX is unlikely to choice there. So it's between BOS and SEA. They may think at present time that they can keep both. It really depends how long this goes. The longer it goes (let's say 4 to 6 months), the longer it will take demand to come back, then they will have to pick between the two or maybe both. At this point, they have more invested in SEA, so it's more likely they will keep sinking money there. Remember, by keeping capacity at SEA, they can gain gates over time if AS has to start cutting back. And AS will have to cut back soon.

In the past Delta has cut their core hubs to fund expansion of these focus cities. I think the smart financial decision is to do the opposite here. Cut the focus cities, but I'm not sure that is what will happen.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:52 pm

enilria wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
enilria wrote:
Part 1.
As stated earlier in the thread, I think what they are doing is cancelling only with 72 hours notice so most customers change their plans prior to that when they can't get a refund.


As long as the carrier has suspended change fees - and at this point, hasn't everyone? - I'm not sure I can get too worked up over not refunding nonrefundable fares. That's especially true where the carrier is offering a refund if the credit isn't used in a certain time period, like UA is doing.

If the airline cancels your flight you get a refund, not a credit. There may be an exception if the flight is cancelled by an act of god.

The airlines are hoping passengers will take the credit, not the refund so they are waiting until the last minute to allow you to cancel and get a refund.


That's not universally true. Quite a few airlines have policies where if they can get you to the intended destination within a reasonable amount of time, they do not owe a refund. So, for instance, UA's contract of carriage (Rule 24(C)(1)) would allow them to close DEN, connect passengers over ORD, and not owe many refunds.
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WidebodyPTV
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:07 pm

DBCoop3r wrote:
Yep. Amazing that people think an airport that got 52 million passengers last year and growing can't support 2 hubs.

DL makes plenty of money at SEA, they aren't going anywhere.


While some flights are undoubtedly profitable, it's doubt DL's made a penny off the overall SEA operation since it became a hub. It takes time and resources for markets to mature. DL hinted at this earlier this year when it said 'while there's routes we'd like to add to SEA (and BOS), it's challenging our P&L, so we're going to focus on building our core hubs.' Then, of course, AA announced its intention to grow SEA with AS and suddenly DL shifted focus from building its core hubs to adding more third tier routes from SEA. And although 52 million passengers traveled through SEA last year, money losing service played a large part in that, undoubtedly more than any other airport in the country. And I can guarantee you SEA (nor any other airport) will not be growing this year :).

DL's committed billions to building SEA and I'm certain it will try to protect its investment as long as it can. But if things get a lot worse, I wouldn't be surprised to see the operation decimated. I doubt SEA can support two large hub operations, and I'm sure DL knows that.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I am guessing US airlines will be grounded by end of the week probably for 3-4 weeks. Industry in the dumpster for the next 3-5 years before we get back to 2019 levels.

2020 sucks.


It amazes me how many users on here think things will be back to normal within a few months. Companies have been quietly pulling out of summer convention travel, and now cities are cancelling events set to take place through June. I refuse to believe the Fed's position that we're not headed into a recession. IMO, it'll be at least a year -- and probably several -- before we match where we were last month.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:17 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I am guessing US airlines will be grounded by end of the week probably for 3-4 weeks. Industry in the dumpster for the next 3-5 years before we get back to 2019 levels.

2020 sucks.


It amazes me how many users on here think things will be back to normal within a few months. Companies have been quietly pulling out of summer convention travel, and now cities are cancelling events set to take place through June. I refuse to believe the Fed's position that we're not headed into a recession. IMO, it'll be at least a year -- and probably several -- before we match where we were last month.


It's both, I think. There's an outstanding chance that, at least in the US, we'll be done with the present level of social distancing in 3 or 4 months, but that means that everyday life will be back closer to normal, not that the economy will be.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: OAG Changes 3/15/2020: ARMAGEDDON + AS Exits BWI-LAX,RNO-SJC;UA Suspends SMX

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:25 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
It's both, I think. There's an outstanding chance that, at least in the US, we'll be done with the present level of social distancing in 3 or 4 months, but that means that everyday life will be back closer to normal, not that the economy will be.


I agree completely. But in the past several days, I've seen plenty of 'when this is over in a few months, what new routes will XXX see' and 'will DL use the downtime to expedite cabin refurbishments' type questions on here and elsewhere. I think a lot of users are naive toward the rebuilding process that's going to take place.

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