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lat41
Topic Author
Posts: 643
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2004 12:23 pm

Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:22 pm

We can assume that some senior pilots were planning or slated to retire when the aircraft type they are working goes out to pasture. Some AA 763 flight officers or crews who fly DL MD88, 90s as two examples may be ending their careers when the aircraft gets pulled off the line. What will happen to these pilots if carriers quickly retire certain types en masse due to corona virus reduced flying. Any compensation or just a farewell handshake?
 
Alias1024
Posts: 2677
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:32 pm

A pilot retiring at the same time as their fleet is either a fluke of timing or by choice. If they wish to continue flying they will be retrained for a position of their choosing that their seniority will allow.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
32andBelow
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:38 pm

What’s a flight officer?
 
ilovelamp
Posts: 343
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:39 pm

Airline seniority systems are complicated for those not in the industry.

If an entire fleet is parked, the company puts out a system-wise bid that most pilots can bid on. That reshuffles seniority on the remaining fleets and adds extra training events into the mix.
 
kalvado
Posts: 2897
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:29 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:47 pm

Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.
 
anshabhi
Posts: 2252
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2016 10:40 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:52 pm

kalvado wrote:
Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.


I disagree.
We are talking about pilots, which are in a long term skill deficit. Many reports say we need over 1 million New pilots over the next decade.

Plus what cost are we talking about ? At the most $20-50K for a machine worth millions??
 
mmo
Posts: 2059
Joined: Thu Apr 18, 2013 3:04 pm

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:57 pm

kalvado wrote:
Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.


With interest rates so now, my guess is there would be few if any takers. The fleets being discussed are crewed by junior Capts and FOs. Trying to purchase an annuity now with low-interest rates would be a terrible prospect. But with the death knell of defined benefit plans, taking early retirement isn't worth it as you would be hit with penalties of early withdrawals if you actually did retire.

You could try and go to do contract flying, but it is going to be a long time until the fleets are back in the air to the same extent they were previously.
If we weren't all crazy we'd all go insane!
 
kalvado
Posts: 2897
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 3:57 pm

anshabhi wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.


I disagree.
We are talking about pilots, which are in a long term skill deficit. Many reports say we need over 1 million New pilots over the next decade.

Plus what cost are we talking about ? At the most $20-50K for a machine worth millions??

We're talking about people those close to retirement in a sharp drop of demand situation, with unclear recovery timeline. And we're talking about planes which are to be retired in the near term anyway.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5006
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:01 pm

kalvado wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.


I disagree.
We are talking about pilots, which are in a long term skill deficit. Many reports say we need over 1 million New pilots over the next decade.

Plus what cost are we talking about ? At the most $20-50K for a machine worth millions??

We're talking about people those close to retirement in a sharp drop of demand situation, with unclear recovery timeline. And we're talking about planes which are to be retired in the near term anyway.

As others have said the higher seniority pilots are 777 and 787 captains. They aren’t 767 “flight officers”
 
leghorn
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:07 pm

German companies can often top up the pension as part of early retirement and keep the costs off the annual financial figures.
For some employees it may prove irresistible to retire early when the offer is there. They get a big lump sum and a definite pension entitlement.

It might not be the same in U.S. where there appear to be superannuated staff hanging around purely because of the healthcare package which would be unaffordable in retirement.
 
2175301
Posts: 1894
Joined: Wed May 16, 2007 11:19 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:14 pm

People within several years of retirement likely will be offered early retirement packages - and will in fact likely take them. Normally early retirement packages are on the generous side and it's financially worth doing. I doubt that most flightdeck crew under the age of 62 will do that if they wish to continue flying as they still have 3 or more years of flying ahead of them. But, this is usually a financial "no brainier" for those age 63 and 64.


There are no longer penalties for withdraws from your retirement plan after age 58 (and perhaps lower) if you are downsized or retired due to a reduction in workforce (that change dates back to about 2012 - if not sooner; and I have had to utilize it starting at age 58).

Have a great day,
 
jbmitt
Posts: 659
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2002 3:59 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:21 pm

A pilot can bid and fly whatever their seniority holds. If the aircraft they are flying is retired, they move to what they can hold potentially displacing less senior pilots. The entire process can have a cascade effect.

There are some nuances like seat locks and fenced aircraft, but this is a general idea.
 
twaconnie
Posts: 270
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:22 pm

ilovelamp wrote:
Airline seniority systems are complicated for those not in the industry.

If an entire fleet is parked, the company puts out a system-wise bid that most pilots can bid on. That reshuffles seniority on the remaining fleets and adds extra training events into the mix.


I'm not in the industry and your right it seems complicated.There is a lot to consider.
 
Airbuser
Posts: 31
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 1:42 pm

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:37 pm

Many factors involved. If I was 62 and had to learn another aircraft I would seriously consider punching out. 62 enables social security in the USA. What would keep me from retiring is health care costs. I recently paid $685 dollars for a blood test and I have a”Cadillac “ insurance plan. I already knew the result and would have turned it down if I was told what it was going to cost me. If the company proposed letting me keep my health insurance at the same cost as being an employee then I would be gone. As of today health insurance for my family of 4 would cost around $36000/yr. out of my pocket. Even more if you go to the doctor.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:38 pm

kalvado wrote:
Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.


A 30-year old Delta MD-88 FO isn't going to be in a position to retire. Pilots at the top of the seniority list make substantially more, and get their choice of routes, so they have little incentive to leave early. Sixty hours a month, $300K a year - why leave? Buyouts would have to be very expensive to pull 1,000 pilots each out of AA/DL/UA/WN/FedEx.
 
leghorn
Posts: 1297
Joined: Sun Jan 22, 2017 9:13 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:50 pm

I said goodbye to so many 55 year old Colleagues(non-aviation) in December. The package offered was just too good to turn down.
Many of my Colleagues are hoping for similar in a few years. This was in a company that is(virus excluded) doing very well.
 
TW870
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Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:01 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:12 pm

As others have said, seniority allows senior pilots on fleets that are being parked to displace more junior pilots on other fleets in order to keep flying. However, at many carriers, the company can "bypass" retraining to avoid too much training churn. So say there is a captain on a 767 at a carrier that opts to retire that fleet due to the current emergency who is 63 years old. The carrier could opt to bypass his or her retraining, and instead pay that pilot at the pay rate of whatever fleet he or she could hold after the downsizing, but pay them to not retrain and instead to sit at home. This avoids creating a chain reaction where a 767 captain displaces an A320 captain who displaces a 737 captain who displaces an A220 captain - for example. Some people on retiring fleets who are older in age may end up getting paid to leave the operation early.
 
CriticalPoint
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:13 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.


A 30-year old Delta MD-88 FO isn't going to be in a position to retire. Pilots at the top of the seniority list make substantially more, and get their choice of routes, so they have little incentive to leave early. Sixty hours a month, $300K a year - why leave? Buyouts would have to be very expensive to pull 1,000 pilots each out of AA/DL/UA/WN/FedEx.


As things stand now United could never pay me enough money to leave. I’d make to much staying put. With that said if payouts hit or bankruptcy we might have another story.

Also if there were other incentives.....I don’t know what they would be maybe I would consider.

If you have 3 years left as a Widebody CA you will
Make 1million dollars base pay.....why would you leave?
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:16 pm

anshabhi wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.


I disagree.
We are talking about pilots, which are in a long term skill deficit. Many reports say we need over 1 million New pilots over the next decade.

Plus what cost are we talking about ? At the most $20-50K for a machine worth millions??


Uh, that all changed over the last week. No way we need that many new pilots anymore.
 
TTailedTiger
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Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:19 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.


A 30-year old Delta MD-88 FO isn't going to be in a position to retire. Pilots at the top of the seniority list make substantially more, and get their choice of routes, so they have little incentive to leave early. Sixty hours a month, $300K a year - why leave? Buyouts would have to be very expensive to pull 1,000 pilots each out of AA/DL/UA/WN/FedEx.


Do you not realize that plenty of pilots have taken early retirement packages? Obviously there is some benefit to it.
 
kalvado
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:21 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.


A 30-year old Delta MD-88 FO isn't going to be in a position to retire. Pilots at the top of the seniority list make substantially more, and get their choice of routes, so they have little incentive to leave early. Sixty hours a month, $300K a year - why leave? Buyouts would have to be very expensive to pull 1,000 pilots each out of AA/DL/UA/WN/FedEx.


Do you not realize that plenty of pilots have taken early retirement packages? Obviously there is some benefit to it.

I believe you mentioned you plan to retire once your T-tailed type is gone, and looks like that may happen sooner than expected. DO you have a more personal comment here?
 
32andBelow
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Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:27 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.


A 30-year old Delta MD-88 FO isn't going to be in a position to retire. Pilots at the top of the seniority list make substantially more, and get their choice of routes, so they have little incentive to leave early. Sixty hours a month, $300K a year - why leave? Buyouts would have to be very expensive to pull 1,000 pilots each out of AA/DL/UA/WN/FedEx.

Why would fedex want to? Cargo is getting slammed right now with the reduction in belly freight.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5006
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:27 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
anshabhi wrote:
kalvado wrote:
Extra training is a cost - with little, if any, benefit for the company at given conditions.
Handing out that cost in cash for those willing to take it and retire may be beneficial for the company.


I disagree.
We are talking about pilots, which are in a long term skill deficit. Many reports say we need over 1 million New pilots over the next decade.

Plus what cost are we talking about ? At the most $20-50K for a machine worth millions??


Uh, that all changed over the last week. No way we need that many new pilots anymore.

For the next 3-6 months. What about when this is over?
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:28 pm

TW870 wrote:
As others have said, seniority allows senior pilots on fleets that are being parked to displace more junior pilots on other fleets in order to keep flying. However, at many carriers, the company can "bypass" retraining to avoid too much training churn. So say there is a captain on a 767 at a carrier that opts to retire that fleet due to the current emergency who is 63 years old. The carrier could opt to bypass his or her retraining, and instead pay that pilot at the pay rate of whatever fleet he or she could hold after the downsizing, but pay them to not retrain and instead to sit at home. This avoids creating a chain reaction where a 767 captain displaces an A320 captain who displaces a 737 captain who displaces an A220 captain - for example. Some people on retiring fleets who are older in age may end up getting paid to leave the operation early.


Indeed. Simple math says that there is a point, where going through reshuffling all the bases and displacement and retraining all pilots downwards, only to repeat the same in a year or two -- but in the opposite direction, due to natural attrition at the top, is deemed too expensive. Both the airline and displaced senior pilots could, in principle, act as adults, and instead of going through the charade, just reach a financial and benefits settlement.
If they are both smart, and pilot is not desperate to fly, they could even agree with "flying a desk" for a while.
AN4 A40 L4T TU3 TU5 IL6 ILW I93 F50 F70 100 146 ARJ AT7 DH4 L10 CRJ ERJ E90 E95 DC-9 MD-8X YK4 YK2 SF3 S20 319 320 321 332 333 343 346 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 74M 757 767 777
Ceterum autem censeo, Moscovia esse delendam
 
TTailedTiger
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Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:31 pm

kalvado wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

A 30-year old Delta MD-88 FO isn't going to be in a position to retire. Pilots at the top of the seniority list make substantially more, and get their choice of routes, so they have little incentive to leave early. Sixty hours a month, $300K a year - why leave? Buyouts would have to be very expensive to pull 1,000 pilots each out of AA/DL/UA/WN/FedEx.


Do you not realize that plenty of pilots have taken early retirement packages? Obviously there is some benefit to it.

I believe you mentioned you plan to retire once your T-tailed type is gone, and looks like that may happen sooner than expected. DO you have a more personal comment here?


You have me confused with someone else. I'm not an airline pilot.
 
TTailedTiger
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Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:33 pm

32andBelow wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
anshabhi wrote:

I disagree.
We are talking about pilots, which are in a long term skill deficit. Many reports say we need over 1 million New pilots over the next decade.

Plus what cost are we talking about ? At the most $20-50K for a machine worth millions??


Uh, that all changed over the last week. No way we need that many new pilots anymore.

For the next 3-6 months. What about when this is over?


Some airlines will inevitably go bust. That puts a lot of pilots out a job who will then be applying at the remaining airlines. And no way Neelman's new Breeze airline will ever fly now.
 
11C
Posts: 165
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:25 pm

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:35 pm

32andBelow wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
anshabhi wrote:

I disagree.
We are talking about pilots, which are in a long term skill deficit. Many reports say we need over 1 million New pilots over the next decade.

Plus what cost are we talking about ? At the most $20-50K for a machine worth millions??


Uh, that all changed over the last week. No way we need that many new pilots anymore.

For the next 3-6 months. What about when this is over?

I hope you are right on the time frame, but I agree that when things do start to improve, we could be racing to catch up again. I’m not sure how valid a 9/11 comparison is, but just prior to 9/11 the airspace system, and some of the busier airports were struggling to deal with the demand. It took quite a while for that demand to return, complicated by the financial meltdown of ‘08/‘09. I hope this recovery will happen faster, but if this financial meltdown continues, it could be a long slow recovery.
 
Dalmd88
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Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 3:19 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:58 pm

One thing to remember about the MD88. It is a combined pool with the MD90 at DL I think. That plane will be around for a couple of more years, so any senior Captains could stay on with out a retrain cycle for a while longer. Now it may not be in the routes an Domicile they like and that could trigger some early retirements.

In short some senior guys do fly 'junior' fleets. not all fly the 777, A350. for some it comes down to the schedule they can hold. I had one buddy that was the senior FO in NYC MD88 for years. He didn't transition out until he had to. He had the best routes.

Those very senior guys could ride it until the fleet sunsets and leave early. It happened that way with the DC9. Some just don't want to do a retrain cycle at that age for only a year worth of flying.
 
BravoOne
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Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:27 pm

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:29 pm

I believe Delta has offered early retirement packages at least twice. Once in the early 90's and 2nd time in the mid to late 90's. Both times it was for the first 500 pilots that signed up. The 2nd offering was driven by the possibility of not receiving your 50% lump sum so it was somewhat fear driven. It created a debacle where the airline actually ran out of pilots in certain categories and did not have check pilots to qualify those who moved up in various. They actually had work our a very controversial arrangement where pilots who had retired could could come back as contractors and fly with the new pilots.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Joined: Mon Jun 24, 2019 11:54 pm

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:32 pm

lat41 wrote:
We can assume that some senior pilots were planning or slated to retire when the aircraft type they are working goes out to pasture. Some AA 763 flight officers or crews who fly DL MD88, 90s as two examples may be ending their careers when the aircraft gets pulled off the line. What will happen to these pilots if carriers quickly retire certain types en masse due to corona virus reduced flying. Any compensation or just a farewell handshake?


They'll rebid according to their seniority. They're not just kicked out the door because their type was retired, that's not the way it works.
 
Gr8Circle
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Joined: Fri Dec 02, 2005 11:44 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:35 pm

11C wrote:
32andBelow wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

Uh, that all changed over the last week. No way we need that many new pilots anymore.


For the next 3-6 months. What about when this is over?


I hope you are right on the time frame, but I agree that when things do start to improve, we could be racing to catch up again. I’m not sure how valid a 9/11 comparison is, but just prior to 9/11 the airspace system, and some of the busier airports were struggling to deal with the demand. It took quite a while for that demand to return, complicated by the financial meltdown of ‘08/‘09. I hope this recovery will happen faster, but if this financial meltdown continues, it could be a long slow recovery.


Spoken like a true doomsayer.... :roll:

Most recoveries happen pretty fast, not long and slow....people in general, want to get back to normalcy as soon as possible...
 
11C
Posts: 165
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:25 pm

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:10 pm

Gr8Circle wrote:
11C wrote:
32andBelow wrote:

For the next 3-6 months. What about when this is over?


I hope you are right on the time frame, but I agree that when things do start to improve, we could be racing to catch up again. I’m not sure how valid a 9/11 comparison is, but just prior to 9/11 the airspace system, and some of the busier airports were struggling to deal with the demand. It took quite a while for that demand to return, complicated by the financial meltdown of ‘08/‘09. I hope this recovery will happen faster, but if this financial meltdown continues, it could be a long slow recovery.


Spoken like a true doomsayer.... :roll:

Most recoveries happen pretty fast, not long and slow....people in general, want to get back to normalcy as soon as possible...


I don’t think so, but ok, if that’s the way you took it. I hope for an instant recovery, but I’m planning for something much worse. It kind of like planning an approach in bad weather. I plan for the worst I can imagine, while I hope for the best. I wouldn’t call that doomsday planning, just prudent planning. And you won’t find many eyes rolling on the flight deck during this type of planning.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5006
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:17 pm

Every airline is going to try to hold on to as many pilots as they can. If they don’t atlas and the cargo boys will take them with open arms. Even fedex and ups may try to top up with any experience ATPs getting furloughed.
 
dfwjim1
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Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 8:46 pm

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:17 pm

So when tomorrow comes and AA cuts 75% of their international flying what are the men and women flying 787s, 777s , A330s and 767s going to do?
 
BravoOne
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Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:27 pm

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:22 pm

32andBelow wrote:
Every airline is going to try to hold on to as many pilots as they can. If they don’t atlas and the cargo boys will take them with open arms. Even fedex and ups may try to top up with any experience ATPs getting furloughed.


Both FedEx and UP have pliantly of pilots to choose from and double that their business model allows for "topping up" when it comes to flight crews.

I think this will be a short lived bump in the road at this hour. There may be a couple of BKs in the smaller airlines, but even then things should iron out pretty quickly.

FWIW, Atlas sounds as if they are having financial problems well beyond this current debacle as I see they reported a 295M loss for 2019 and have strted parking some 747-400's
 
BravoOne
Posts: 4094
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2013 2:27 pm

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:29 pm

dfwjim1 wrote:
So when tomorrow comes and AA cuts 75% of their international flying what are the men and women flying 787s, 777s , A330s and 767s going to do?


Not sure how their contracts are written but it would in all likelihood they still provide some sort of pay in lieu of that grounding. Remember you just don't turn these operations on and off with a flick of the switch. There is a reasonable chance that this will turn around fairly quickly, so what you do today, may have little application to current events six months down the road.
 
Canuck600
Posts: 292
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 5:24 pm

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:46 pm

I don't understand why people think this is so complicated, it's a pretty straightforward seniority system, if your work goes away you just bump somebody junior to you. But then again I've worked in transportation or been around the transportation industry most of my life.

twaconnie wrote:
ilovelamp wrote:
Airline seniority systems are complicated for those not in the industry.

If an entire fleet is parked, the company puts out a system-wise bid that most pilots can bid on. That reshuffles seniority on the remaining fleets and adds extra training events into the mix.


I'm not in the industry and your right it seems complicated.There is a lot to consider.
 
GalaxyFlyer
Posts: 6252
Joined: Fri Jan 01, 2016 4:44 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:05 pm

dfwjim1 wrote:
So when tomorrow comes and AA cuts 75% of their international flying what are the men and women flying 787s, 777s , A330s and 767s going to do?


Sit home and collect reserve or min line guarantee, that’s what. Now, if it gets seriously long lasting, the senior pilots will bump their lower seniority pilots who will, sufficiently junior will be laid off. Not rocket science, just labor contracts which are apparently harder.

GF
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2599
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:09 pm

Gr8Circle wrote:
11C wrote:
32andBelow wrote:

For the next 3-6 months. What about when this is over?


I hope you are right on the time frame, but I agree that when things do start to improve, we could be racing to catch up again. I’m not sure how valid a 9/11 comparison is, but just prior to 9/11 the airspace system, and some of the busier airports were struggling to deal with the demand. It took quite a while for that demand to return, complicated by the financial meltdown of ‘08/‘09. I hope this recovery will happen faster, but if this financial meltdown continues, it could be a long slow recovery.


Spoken like a true doomsayer.... :roll:

Most recoveries happen pretty fast, not long and slow....people in general, want to get back to normalcy as soon as possible...


The legacies didn't start recalling furloughed pilots until around 2007 after 9/11. It won't be quick.
 
32andBelow
Posts: 5006
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:12 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
Gr8Circle wrote:
11C wrote:

I hope you are right on the time frame, but I agree that when things do start to improve, we could be racing to catch up again. I’m not sure how valid a 9/11 comparison is, but just prior to 9/11 the airspace system, and some of the busier airports were struggling to deal with the demand. It took quite a while for that demand to return, complicated by the financial meltdown of ‘08/‘09. I hope this recovery will happen faster, but if this financial meltdown continues, it could be a long slow recovery.


Spoken like a true doomsayer.... :roll:

Most recoveries happen pretty fast, not long and slow....people in general, want to get back to normalcy as soon as possible...


The legacies didn't start recalling furloughed pilots until around 2007 after 9/11. It won't be quick.

People were afraid to fly after 9/11. People aren’t afraid to fly, they are afraid of getting sick. Now if we have a major recession that’s a different issue.
 
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Phosphorus
Posts: 1035
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:10 pm

Canuck600 wrote:
I don't understand why people think this is so complicated, it's a pretty straightforward seniority system, if your work goes away you just bump somebody junior to you. But then again I've worked in transportation or been around the transportation industry most of my life.

twaconnie wrote:
ilovelamp wrote:
Airline seniority systems are complicated for those not in the industry.

If an entire fleet is parked, the company puts out a system-wise bid that most pilots can bid on. That reshuffles seniority on the remaining fleets and adds extra training events into the mix.


I'm not in the industry and your right it seems complicated.There is a lot to consider.

So, for us, outsiders, what if
1) the next guy, junior to you, is bumped downwards, and you take his/her place.
2) this is a type you are not current on, and you need training
3) the guy you bumped bumps somebody else, and they both now need training
4) some change of bases is in order, apparently, for these displaced folks
5) your retirement is a few months away
6) the airline takes you to a separate room, and offers you to take some money and benefits, and go play golf, instead of all that bumping, retraining, changing of bases, furloughs and other unpleasantries down the seniority list.

Would the hypothetical "you" look at it, or is it all a delusion?

To add nuance to the question -- what if all this displacement creates a rush for simulator time? Does it incentivize the airline to compromise?

And another caveat -- if the training (including waiting for simulator slots) makes sure you are current on your new type, simultaneously with your retirement? Does it incentivize both to compromise?
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:36 pm

Delusion, not in the contract to offer outside money
 
ilovelamp
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:43 pm

One thing to keep in mind in all of this is training capacity. Before the events of the last few weeks, that capacity was earmarked for mostly new hire training and large bid awards to include a lot of upgrades to captain and upward movement for FOs. Now, it appears that capacity will be needed for downgrades and other backward movements due to possible furloughs.

The main two silver linings for lost major airline pilots in the coming weeks, months and year will be low gas prices and retirements. Low gas means less likelihood of furlough and increasing retirements mean movement and hiring should continue but probably and much reduced rate.

If gas prices were what they were 10 plus years ago, airline bankruptcies would most likely already be a serious consideration for many current players.
 
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Web500sjc
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:55 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
Canuck600 wrote:
I don't understand why people think this is so complicated, it's a pretty straightforward seniority system, if your work goes away you just bump somebody junior to you. But then again I've worked in transportation or been around the transportation industry most of my life.

twaconnie wrote:

I'm not in the industry and your right it seems complicated.There is a lot to consider.

So, for us, outsiders, what if
1) the next guy, junior to you, is bumped downwards, and you take his/her place.
2) this is a type you are not current on, and you need training
3) the guy you bumped bumps somebody else, and they both now need training
4) some change of bases is in order, apparently, for these displaced folks
5) your retirement is a few months away
6) the airline takes you to a separate room, and offers you to take some money and benefits, and go play golf, instead of all that bumping, retraining, changing of bases, furloughs and other unpleasantries down the seniority list.

Would the hypothetical "you" look at it, or is it all a delusion?

To add nuance to the question -- what if all this displacement creates a rush for simulator time? Does it incentivize the airline to compromise?

And another caveat -- if the training (including waiting for simulator slots) makes sure you are current on your new type, simultaneously with your retirement? Does it incentivize both to compromise?


Generally airlines do have the ability to not train someone who is close to the mandatory retirement age, the price is that the airline continues to pay that person as though they were still employed and flying the airplane they are “supposed to be on”.
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Revelation
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:18 am

ilovelamp wrote:
One thing to keep in mind in all of this is training capacity. Before the events of the last few weeks, that capacity was earmarked for mostly new hire training and large bid awards to include a lot of upgrades to captain and upward movement for FOs. Now, it appears that capacity will be needed for downgrades and other backward movements due to possible furloughs.

The main two silver linings for lost major airline pilots in the coming weeks, months and year will be low gas prices and retirements. Low gas means less likelihood of furlough and increasing retirements mean movement and hiring should continue but probably and much reduced rate.

If gas prices were what they were 10 plus years ago, airline bankruptcies would most likely already be a serious consideration for many current players.

What if a pilot gets bumped to a type they've already been trained and rated on on the way up?
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GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Mon Mar 16, 2020 12:27 am

Depending on how recent, either a recurrent or new initial course.
 
ilovelamp
Posts: 343
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:00 am

Revelation wrote:
ilovelamp wrote:
One thing to keep in mind in all of this is training capacity. Before the events of the last few weeks, that capacity was earmarked for mostly new hire training and large bid awards to include a lot of upgrades to captain and upward movement for FOs. Now, it appears that capacity will be needed for downgrades and other backward movements due to possible furloughs.

The main two silver linings for lost major airline pilots in the coming weeks, months and year will be low gas prices and retirements. Low gas means less likelihood of furlough and increasing retirements mean movement and hiring should continue but probably and much reduced rate.

If gas prices were what they were 10 plus years ago, airline bankruptcies would most likely already be a serious consideration for many current players.

What if a pilot gets bumped to a type they've already been trained and rated on on the way up?

My airline essentially has long and short courses. In your example, even if they were current just a month or two ago, the pilot would still have to go through a full short course.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:08 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
Depending on how recent, either a recurrent or new initial course.

ilovelamp wrote:
My airline essentially has long and short courses. In your example, even if they were current just a month or two ago, the pilot would still have to go through a full short course.

Thanks for the info!
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
reltney
Posts: 659
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:52 pm

2175301 wrote:
People within several years of retirement likely will be offered early retirement packages - and will in fact likely take them. Normally early retirement packages are on the generous side and it's financially worth doing. I doubt that most flightdeck crew under the age of 62 will do that if they wish to continue flying as they still have 3 or more years of flying ahead of them. But, this is usually a financial "no brainier" for those age 63 and 64.


There are no longer penalties for withdraws from your retirement plan after age 58 (and perhaps lower) if you are downsized or retired due to a reduction in workforce (that change dates back to about 2012 - if not sooner; and I have had to utilize it starting at age 58).

Have a great day,



Not me. I’ll fly till the last day. Delta retrained guys when we parked the 747. Some had less than 6 months left. Since Delta took my pension I will have to fly till I am forced to retire. Hopefully age 67 will pass in the US. My father just turned 90 and still flight instructs. A financial no brainier is flying as long as I can..it’s an easy stress free career that I love...why would one stop doing something they love...

Cheers
Knives don't kill people. People with knives kill people.
OUTLAW KNIVES.

I am a pilot, therefore I envy no one...
 
reltney
Posts: 659
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Re: Early retirement for flight crews

Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:03 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
Canuck600 wrote:
I don't understand why people think this is so complicated, it's a pretty straightforward seniority system, if your work goes away you just bump somebody junior to you. But then again I've worked in transportation or been around the transportation industry most of my life.

twaconnie wrote:

I'm not in the industry and your right it seems complicated.There is a lot to consider.

So, for us, outsiders, what if
1) the next guy, junior to you, is bumped downwards, and you take his/her place.
2) this is a type you are not current on, and you need training
3) the guy you bumped bumps somebody else, and they both now need training
4) some change of bases is in order, apparently, for these displaced folks
5) your retirement is a few months away
6) the airline takes you to a separate room, and offers you to take some money and benefits, and go play golf, instead of all that bumping, retraining, changing of bases, furloughs and other unpleasantries down the seniority list.

Would the hypothetical "you" look at it, or is it all a delusion?

To add nuance to the question -- what if all this displacement creates a rush for simulator time? Does it incentivize the airline to compromise?

And another caveat -- if the training (including waiting for simulator slots) makes sure you are current on your new type, simultaneously with your retirement? Does it incentivize both to compromise?



Great questions. You move backwards and bump the guy lower in seniority. That’s how it works. Good system and cost airlines money so they really need to think about cutting back and the costs associated with the fleet plans.

As for you statement about “the airline takes you to a separate room”. That doesn’t happen as they would have to make the same offer to all pilots.
To get me to retire early is a simple formula. When Delta pilots had their pensions taken away it hurt. My projected value would have been about 2.5-3 million US dollars. If they “take me in the back room” to offer an early retirement would have to be more than 3 million for me personally.

Cheers
Knives don't kill people. People with knives kill people.
OUTLAW KNIVES.

I am a pilot, therefore I envy no one...

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