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runway23
Posts: 2337
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2005 2:12 am

Re: Air Canada Schedules Rouge Replacement Flights For 2021

Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:47 am

Skyblue39 wrote:

They could. But you’re just guessing. All routes are
Available for sale on the Air Canada website. So I guess they know something that you don’t.


Just because it is published doesn’t mean it will fly.

The August intl schedule was finalized a week or so ago, September still to be done.

May/June 2021 is light years away in the current environment, a lot can happen. AC don’t know yet if they will have the 737Max back in service by next summer either.

In all probability AC has just opened sales in the hope that people might already book so as to prop up their cashflow and see where there might be some demand. It’s also a better sell/feels good for those who take vouchers to see the route they want to fly is already published next year.
 
User001
Posts: 1131
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Re: Air Canada Schedules Rouge Replacement Flights For 2021

Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:57 am

Skyblue39 wrote:
Thomaas wrote:
I wonder where is AC planning to get all that extra A330 capacity from, even with the recent A330 deliveries. They will need 7.5 frames to operate BCN, ATH, LIS, and MAN. My guess is that they'll cancel YUL-TLS and the extra frequencies on YYZ/YUL-CDG and YUL-BRU, as well as YVR-CDG/ZRH/DUB with YUL-DUB going to the MAX.


Both YVR-DUB and YUL-DUB will be on the 787, not the A330 or MAX.


DUB-YUL now changed to the B73M for S21
 
AA100
Posts: 123
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2015 10:57 am

Re: Air Canada Schedules Rouge Replacement Flights For 2021

Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:04 am

SueD wrote:
DLHAM wrote:
by738 wrote:
Wonder why some still listed as 763 when they're reported as all grounded. More changes pending I suspect. Presume TS merger will play its part.


If you ask me I do not see a lot of these "767 routes" coming back in 2021.


Which one do you think won’t return

Europe
Athens - short season cruise contracts and tourist related
Barcelona - ditto above
Edinburgh - Tourist and some VFR traffic one of Rouges best performers
Manchester - always good albeit short seasonal; good loads with quite high fares I might add .
Lisbon - More cruise and some VFR traffic and a little amont of codeshare potential with TAP.

South America
Bogotá - plenty VFR and freight
Lima - as above plus some tourist traffic.

Were pretty much the core long haul of Rouge, the European routes were also strong and if the merger is completed with Air Transat combined forces may actually reduce capacity whilst increasing the product quality; we shall see.

Which are the weak ones In your opinion ?


But that is the whole point. What you list might not be true anymore. We all have to get out of this mindset that things will go back to the way they were pre-COVID. What cruise traffic will BCN/ATH/LIS sustain in S21? Do you really think cruises will be a thing in 2021 - let alone large international cruises with intercontinental flying attached? No way, and that is assuming cruise companies are still alive.

Will we really see VFR traffic come back the way it once was? High ticket prices, complicated health screening and government travel restrictions will prevent the resurgence of that demand for some time.

The point is we don't know. Rouge doesn't know. On the flip side, pandemic could be at bay, Europe could have the virus under control and there could be a huge influx of Canadians wanting to visit Europe. ( I doubt it but it's possible).
 
RvA
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2015 12:37 pm

Re: Air Canada Schedules Rouge Replacement Flights For 2021

Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:06 pm

Agreed. Nobody knows. With things like Spain opening up for British tourists, then a sudden introduction of quarantine rules back in the UK etc. happening and likely becoming more prevalent things will keep getting shaken up and people’s confidence especially for long haul travel will take a good while to come back.
 
A388
Posts: 8004
Joined: Mon May 21, 2001 3:48 am

Re: Air Canada Schedules Rouge Replacement Flights For 2021

Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:44 pm

What about Rouge flights to the Caribbean? In my case I'm interesting to see what AC will do with their CUR flights?

A388
 
codyul
Posts: 130
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

Re: Air Canada Schedules Rouge Replacement Flights For 2021

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:03 pm

A388 wrote:
What about Rouge flights to the Caribbean? In my case I'm interesting to see what AC will do with their CUR flights?

A388

The only thing we have to keep in mind is that Rouge likely won't reappear until AC returns to 55% of normal flying. If they did they would have to spend force cabin crew to transfer from mainline to Rouge and have to pay training for them. It would be an expense that would not make much sense, if my thinking is correct.
YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8527
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:14 am

Results for revenue decline, loss, and cash burn are roughly comparable to the US3, scaled for difference in size (2019 RPMs).

Total revenue plunged 89% to C$527 million.

Canada’s largest carrier said net loss was C$1.75 billion, or C$6.44 per share, in the quarter ended June 30, compared with a profit of C$343 million, or C$1.26 per share, a year earlier.

Air Canada had C$9.12 billion in liquidity, as of June 30. It forecast third-quarter capacity to decline by about 80%, higher than an earlier forecast of at least 75%.

The airline forecast third-quarter net cash burn of between C$15 million ($11.18 million) and C$17 million per day on average, compared with net cash burn of about C$19 million per day in the previous quarter.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-air- ... 4W1HB?il=0
 
picarus
Posts: 332
Joined: Fri Dec 29, 2000 6:51 am

Re: Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Fri Jul 31, 2020 12:25 pm

Air Canada had C$9.12 billion in liquidity, as of June 30

And $2.5 billion of that are dollars that belong to passengers who were not given refunds when AC cancelled their flights.
 
Airlinerdude
Posts: 208
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 3:07 am

Re: Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:54 pm

I just had a quick glance through their financials, some interesting things I found:

    ‘Advance ticket sales’ liability was sitting at $2.4bn (2.9 at Dec 31), which in large part are ticket holder’s interest free loan to AC. I’m a bit surprised this remains as high as it does. I’ve noticed AC has been very slow to update their inventory to reflect a more realistic operating environment. For example, October is currently showing operating at close to 100% of their pre-covid schedule. Given that they’re not allowing refunds, I’m surprised that this isn’t being scrutinized as a ‘bait and switch’ technique.

    QTD cargo revenue was greater than passenger revenue, at $269m and $207m respectively. While it’s not a surprise that this happened, I am surprised that cargo revenue is only up 52% compared to prior year QTD. I had the impression they were operating a pretty rigorous cargo schedule with higher yields. Nonetheless, still great to see AC take advantage of the situation and increase their cargo revenues.

    Cash burn was about $19m per day in Q2. Expected to drop to about $15m to $17m for Q3.

    Capital commitments at Dec 31 were $1.5bn for 2021. Now this number is up to $2.2bn. This is likely on the account of deferring some capital commitments to next year, and having a more concrete idea of when they’re receiving their MAX deliveries. But it does present a huge cash flow requirement next year. It will be interesting to see how this is managed going forward.
 
Thenoflyzone
Posts: 3019
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2001 4:42 am

Re: Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:30 am

“Without government industry support and as travel restrictions are extended, we will look at other opportunities to further reduce costs and capital, including further route suspensions and possible cancellations of Boeing and Airbus aircraft on order, including the Airbus A220,” Air Canada Chief Executive Officer Calin Rovinescu told analysts


Interesting. Threatening to cancel A220s. Let's see if that's going to hit home with Trudeau.
us Air Traffic Controllers have a good record, we haven't left one up there yet !!
 
9252fly
Posts: 1046
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:19 am

Re: Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:32 am

Thenoflyzone wrote:
“Without government industry support and as travel restrictions are extended, we will look at other opportunities to further reduce costs and capital, including further route suspensions and possible cancellations of Boeing and Airbus aircraft on order, including the Airbus A220,” Air Canada Chief Executive Officer Calin Rovinescu told analysts


Interesting. Threatening to cancel A220s. Let's see if that's going to hit home with Trudeau.


It would seem AC is looking for help, suggesting further route suspensions and aircraft cancellations will certainly get attention in YOW. The government seems to be remaining firm on the travel restrictions, so the only alternative would be to provide financial support, in what form remains to be seen. I don't know how the AC Privatization Act may come into play and if that is a bargaining chip for the government to play. Additional route suspensions may be inevitable, hopefully with a resumption when the sector returns to its previous state.

The threat of aircraft cancellations is interesting. A few months ago AC came to a final arrangement with Boeing regarding their order for the B78M. With 24 delivered and 26 remaining, with roughly half the backlog built and in storage, I don't see how AC will be able to cancel the remaining undelivered aircraft unless they refuse to make the final payments, that could get ugly! In the last couple of days AC took delivery of another A223 which now makes 8 in service. They could do what DL is doing and not bother to pick up newly completed aircraft, they have apparently 5 aircraft awaiting delivery. In DL case, it's likely cash conservation that's driving their delaying tactic, which would be what AC may need to do. AC stated a few months ago that they had the financing in place for this year's A223 deliveries.

Over the next few years both the B78M and A223 will be critical elements in AC recovery, so I hope there is a resolution.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 999
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Air Canada CEO Demands Government Ease Travel Restrictions with “Tremendous Urgency”

Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:57 am

Revenue down 95% at Air Canada, Laid off 20,000 of 38,000 employees.
He calls the interprovincial travel restrictions a violation of Canadian Rights and Freedoms.


https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/air ... e9b09ba3ce
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 999
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:00 am

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/air ... e9b09ba3ce

Air Canada CEO Demands Feds Loosen Travel Restrictions Amid $1.75 Billion Loss
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8527
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:38 am

9252fly wrote:
The threat of aircraft cancellations is interesting. A few months ago AC came to a final arrangement with Boeing regarding their order for the B78M. With 24 delivered and 26 remaining, with roughly half the backlog built and in storage, I don't see how AC will be able to cancel the remaining undelivered aircraft unless they refuse to make the final payments, that could get ugly! In the last couple of days AC took delivery of another A223 which now makes 8 in service.


AC doesn't talk about new aircraft commitments beyond this year in its annual report. Do you know the delivery schedules? Are (were?) there enough A220 deliveries planned even to make a significant difference in CapEx?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8527
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:39 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/air-canada-loss-travel-restrictions_ca_5f24ab0dc5b656e9b09ba3ce

Air Canada CEO Demands Feds Loosen Travel Restrictions Amid $1.75 Billion Loss


AC and Ryanair need to be slapped down - hard. Air carriers don't get to make public health decisions for a nation.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2117
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Air Canada CEO Demands Government Ease Travel Restrictions with “Tremendous Urgency”

Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:05 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
Revenue down 95% at Air Canada, Laid off 20,000 of 38,000 employees.
He calls the interprovincial travel restrictions a violation of Canadian Rights and Freedoms.


https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/air ... e9b09ba3ce


Government action/inaction is an easy target here, but it’s far from clear that it’s the actual problem.

Provinces are responsible for healthcare provision; they need to act accordingly. Are they violating Canadian Rights and Freedoms? Probably. Will that stand up in court? Depends - if the notwithstanding clause can be invoked here, it’s a good punch line, but it carries no weight.

Government funding? On some level, I think we all know that AC’s future isn’t actually at risk. In a worst case, the Government will take over. The question, then is, what strings should be attached to government aid to make a bailout worthwhile for taxpayers - and would be better for taxpayers than just taking majority control/full ownership. I haven’t a clue. Somebody else might.

But even these are relatively minor issues in the grand scheme of things. To my knowledge, there aren’t many provincial restrictions in the key population centres - Ontario, Quebec, BC, Alberta. Yes, the maritimes and northern territories are placing restrictions, but the former is hardly a major population base, and AC doesn’t serve the latter.

That nobody is flying suggests that the bigger, undervalued problem is that Canadians aren’t comfortable getting into planes - especially now that AC/WS are back to filling every seat. If this is a reflection of Canadian risk aversion going forward, then it spells real trouble for CAN carriers.

Which, I suspect, is why AC is attributing this downturn to everything but pax sentiment. The moment this becomes about low demand, rather than suppressed demand, those stock prices are off to the roller coasters in la ronde.
 
EdmFlyBoi
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Jul 31, 2020 5:58 pm

Re: Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:21 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
9252fly wrote:
The threat of aircraft cancellations is interesting. A few months ago AC came to a final arrangement with Boeing regarding their order for the B78M. With 24 delivered and 26 remaining, with roughly half the backlog built and in storage, I don't see how AC will be able to cancel the remaining undelivered aircraft unless they refuse to make the final payments, that could get ugly! In the last couple of days AC took delivery of another A223 which now makes 8 in service.


AC doesn't talk about new aircraft commitments beyond this year in its annual report. Do you know the delivery schedules? Are (were?) there enough A220 deliveries planned even to make a significant difference in CapEx?


End of 2019 Guidance was 18 A220's and 30 Maxes by YE 2020 and 34 and 50 by YE 2021. Obviously Max deliveries are unclear but I believe there are 14 built and stored that have not been delivered.

All the to be delivered narrow bodies are to be owned based on 2019 guidance so there will be opportunities for sale and lease back to reduce capex if deferrals and cancellations don't occur. AC also owns a large percentage of the 787 and 777 fleet with 31 of 37 787's and 14 of 25 777's owned at the end of 2019. There may be similar sale and leaseback opportunities there. Unfortunately, a large number of the parked aircraft (767's and A32x's) are leased which, if they are not flying, is an ongoing expenditure for AC. The very old A32x fleet that was supposed to be retired as the new narrow bodies came in may have shorter lease terms making removal of them from service increasingly more likely.

Very challenging times for fleet planners.
 
ShamrockBoi330
Posts: 357
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:28 am

Re: Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:40 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/air-canada-loss-travel-restrictions_ca_5f24ab0dc5b656e9b09ba3ce

Air Canada CEO Demands Feds Loosen Travel Restrictions Amid $1.75 Billion Loss


AC and Ryanair need to be slapped down - hard. Air carriers don't get to make public health decisions for a nation.


I could not agree more with statement.

The numbers of flights, domestic and international, with covid onboard is not acceptable. And coming from International hotspots too, US, Mexico and UK to name three. More needs to be done by airlines coming into Canada to prevent carrying Covid.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/ ... rings.html

What are the Airlines current responsibilities or repercussions? they need to be held accountable if they are pushing so hard for normal flight resumption for bringing in Covid carriers.

Also read another article that 10 taxi and limo drivers at YYZ have died of Covid.
 
777luver
Posts: 171
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:44 am

Re: Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Sat Aug 01, 2020 4:03 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
FlyingElvii wrote:
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/air-canada-loss-travel-restrictions_ca_5f24ab0dc5b656e9b09ba3ce

Air Canada CEO Demands Feds Loosen Travel Restrictions Amid $1.75 Billion Loss


AC and Ryanair need to be slapped down - hard. Air carriers don't get to make public health decisions for a nation.


He’s not demanding.....he’s simply pushing for reopening, they can’t get gov’t aid so what are they supposed to do? Sit and bleed cash and do nothing and go bankrupt by the end of the year? It seems the airlines can’t do any right, right now. Middle seats being sold again? Angry people. No refunds? Angry people. Route cuts? Angry people. If the govt gave federal help then the airlines wouldn’t have to resort to such measures to try to slow the cash bleed going on. A lot of the airlines worldwide have been able to do a lot better because they have gotten lots of federal and govt help. Ditto for Canada, the govt has refused to help out and then turns around and plays the “we’re disappointed in you cutting routes” game, absolutely unacceptable. Almost every other sector has received help. A lot of the biggest airlines in the world have received help, it’s disgusting that Canadian airlines have not received help....period.
 
ElPistolero
Posts: 2117
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:44 am

Re: Air Canada reports 2Q20 loss of C$1.75 Billion

Sat Aug 01, 2020 5:23 pm

777luver wrote:
He’s not demanding.....he’s simply pushing for reopening, they can’t get gov’t aid so what are they supposed to do? Sit and bleed cash and do nothing and go bankrupt by the end of the year? It seems the airlines can’t do any right, right now. Middle seats being sold again? Angry people. No refunds? Angry people. Route cuts? Angry people. If the govt gave federal help then the airlines wouldn’t have to resort to such measures to try to slow the cash bleed going on. A lot of the airlines worldwide have been able to do a lot better because they have gotten lots of federal and govt help. Ditto for Canada, the govt has refused to help out and then turns around and plays the “we’re disappointed in you cutting routes” game, absolutely unacceptable. Almost every other sector has received help. A lot of the biggest airlines in the world have received help, it’s disgusting that Canadian airlines have not received help....period.


“Disgusting”? Lol.

AC got $2.5 billion in government aid by virtue of the government choosing not to force AC to comply with APRs and its own tariffs. It’s taxpayer money, albeit without the government serving as a financial middleman. A lot of the biggest airlines in the world that have received financial help have been forced to refund tickets as well.

There are also any number of government programs that AC can apply for. Those programs are designed to be measures of last resort - they’re not meant to benefit companies. AC made a calculated (and in my mind, correct) decision to raise funds in the market. They don’t actually need to use government measures of last resort.

On the issue of paying refunds and filling middle seats, AC is perfectly entitled to do as it wishes within the leeway granted by the government. That said, if it’s alienating customers or putting them off as a result, that is a problem of their own making, not the government’s. AC has to figure out how to serve the market given current market sentiment. If they want to pack passengers in or turn customer payments into interest free loans, then they need to own the consequences.

As an aside, while it’s true that the government has been handing out money everywhere, Canada and Canadians owe AC nothing. The government doesn’t need to step in, not least because there isn’t any actual need to step in yet. In the unlikely event that AC actually reaches a point where it might fail, the government will probably step in. But it’s approach will be dictated by what’s in the taxpayers’ interests, not AC shareholders. There will be strings attached. Lots of thick, uncuttable strings. Things like nationalization may well be on the cards. Not convinced that will go down well with a lot of AC folk around here either.
 
SpaceshipDC10
Posts: 7054
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:44 am

Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:07 pm

If these changes will indeed happen next summer, ATH and CMN will get quite a boost in capacity.

-Montreal – Casablanca eff 15JUN21 450-seater 777-300ER replaces A330-300, 1 daily

-Montreal – Athens rouge 767 replaced by following
01MAY21 – 31MAY21 4 weekly 787-9
eff 01JUN21 1 daily 450-seater 777-300ER (Previous plan: 787-9)

-Toronto – Athens rouge 767 replaced by following
28MAR21 – 30MAY21 3 weekly 787-9 (6 weekly in May)
eff 01JUN21 1 daily 450-seater 777-300ER (Previous plan: 787-9)


https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-04oct20/
 
aviator2000
Posts: 99
Joined: Sun May 20, 2018 11:19 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:14 pm

There was an increasingly huge amount of tourists travelling between Greece and Canada before the pandemic. If borders are indeed open next summer, AC should have no problem filling the B777s up. As for CMN, the amount of VFR between Montreal and Morroco is huge.

Those changes reafirm the trend which airlines are following, shifting their flights from business centres to leisure and VFR oriented routes.
 
by738
Posts: 3116
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2000 7:59 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:18 pm

suspect a lot of these are ‘place holders’ no way are some if these routes getting mainline A330’s. All the unallocated Rouge transatlantics still to be revealed..
 
yulexpansion
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:08 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:51 pm

by738 wrote:
suspect a lot of these are ‘place holders’ no way are some if these routes getting mainline A330’s. All the unallocated Rouge transatlantics still to be revealed..


If you haven't been following the news these past 6 months, Air Canada has announced it is retiring its 767 fleet, both Mainline and Rouge.
 
777luver
Posts: 171
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:44 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:00 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
yulexpansion wrote:
by738 wrote:
suspect a lot of these are ‘place holders’ no way are some if these routes getting mainline A330’s. All the unallocated Rouge transatlantics still to be revealed..


If you haven't been following the news these past 6 months, Air Canada has announced it is retiring its 767 fleet, both Mainline and Rouge.


Already retired
 
Thomaas
Posts: 688
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2014 10:52 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:41 pm

aviator2000 wrote:
There was an increasingly huge amount of tourists travelling between Greece and Canada before the pandemic. If borders are indeed open next summer, AC should have no problem filling the B777s up. As for CMN, the amount of VFR between Montreal and Morroco is huge.

Those changes reafirm the trend which airlines are following, shifting their flights from business centres to leisure and VFR oriented routes.

Both YUL and YYZ to ATH were operated 9x weekly on 282-seat 767s before the pandemic, they'll have no problem filling daily 450 seaters on the routes, especially with the large VFR traffic to Greece.
 
hollywoodcory
Posts: 210
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:29 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:11 pm

Also YUL-GRU was extended year-round.

The odd part of this is, AC hasn't even updated its winter schedule after October 25 yet but their making changes to next summer?
 
9252fly
Posts: 1046
Joined: Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:19 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:17 pm

Thomaas wrote:
aviator2000 wrote:
There was an increasingly huge amount of tourists travelling between Greece and Canada before the pandemic. If borders are indeed open next summer, AC should have no problem filling the B777s up. As for CMN, the amount of VFR between Montreal and Morroco is huge.

Those changes reafirm the trend which airlines are following, shifting their flights from business centres to leisure and VFR oriented routes.

Both YUL and YYZ to ATH were operated 9x weekly on 282-seat 767s before the pandemic, they'll have no problem filling daily 450 seaters on the routes, especially with the large VFR traffic to Greece.


There's a lot of speculation on some of these aircraft and schedule changes, not once has anyone brought into the conversation how Covid factors into the equation. It's almost as if it's a foregone conclusion that everything will be back to normal and not only that, there will be even more demand and traffic than prior to the global Covid breakout. It totally flies in the face of every aviation forecast I've seen to date.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8527
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:24 pm

Thomaas wrote:
Both YUL and YYZ to ATH were operated 9x weekly on 282-seat 767s before the pandemic, they'll have no problem filling daily 450 seaters on the routes, especially with the large VFR traffic to Greece.


450 is a pretty big jump from 282, particularly when TATL volumes have crashed.

Filling a plane isn't a challenge. Filling a big plane at good avg fares is the challenge.
 
SpaceshipDC10
Posts: 7054
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:44 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:27 pm

Thomaas wrote:
Both YUL and YYZ to ATH were operated 9x weekly on 282-seat 767s before the pandemic, they'll have no problem filling daily 450 seaters on the routes, especially with the large VFR traffic to Greece.


9x 282 = 2538

7x 450 = 3150

With what's planned for next year, if it really happens, that's a growth in capacity of 24,1% for each routes. Even if flights can resume next summer, do they really expect that many travellers?
 
ExMilitaryEng
Posts: 643
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:40 pm

For the summer ATH flights, would the CASM of a B777-200LR be somewhat simillar to the 773? (But hey, AC has so many B773s to put somewhere)

But I agree with a previous poster, those must be place holders.
 
yzfElite
Posts: 60
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2016 5:14 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:08 pm

9252fly wrote:
Thomaas wrote:
aviator2000 wrote:
There was an increasingly huge amount of tourists travelling between Greece and Canada before the pandemic. If borders are indeed open next summer, AC should have no problem filling the B777s up. As for CMN, the amount of VFR between Montreal and Morroco is huge.

Those changes reafirm the trend which airlines are following, shifting their flights from business centres to leisure and VFR oriented routes.

Both YUL and YYZ to ATH were operated 9x weekly on 282-seat 767s before the pandemic, they'll have no problem filling daily 450 seaters on the routes, especially with the large VFR traffic to Greece.


There's a lot of speculation on some of these aircraft and schedule changes, not once has anyone brought into the conversation how Covid factors into the equation. It's almost as if it's a foregone conclusion that everything will be back to normal and not only that, there will be even more demand and traffic than prior to the global Covid breakout. It totally flies in the face of every aviation forecast I've seen to date.


I suspect there will be pent up VFR demand that will show up at some point, the problem is that nobody really knows yet when that is (e.g. summer 21, summer 22, etc), then after that bulge of traffic I suspect will be a long recovery.
 
User001
Posts: 1131
Joined: Sun Jun 19, 2016 2:18 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:08 pm

yulexpansion wrote:
by738 wrote:
suspect a lot of these are ‘place holders’ no way are some if these routes getting mainline A330’s. All the unallocated Rouge transatlantics still to be revealed..


If you haven't been following the news these past 6 months, Air Canada has announced it is retiring its 767 fleet, both Mainline and Rouge.


I think the poster is reffering to the fact there are a number routes still showing as a 'rouge B767', when we know that those rouge B767 won't be operating. Thus, why are these routes still listed as such, and what do Air Canada intend to do with them?
If AC intend to cut them, then the continued ticket sales are surmountable to dishonesty as they are selling a ticket on a flight they have no intention of operating, but, if they intend to run them on another aircraft, then why not swap the EQV in the system already?
 
Whiteguy
Posts: 1573
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 6:11 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:28 pm

hollywoodcory wrote:
Also YUL-GRU was extended year-round.

The odd part of this is, AC hasn't even updated its winter schedule after October 25 yet but their making changes to next summer?


Most airlines have been doing the same, WS included. Forward planning for fleet availability.
 
codyul
Posts: 130
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:11 pm

Here's hoping all overseas becomes mainline flying. Rouge makes sense for Carribean and secondary domestic flying.
YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:40 pm

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
For the summer ATH flights, would the CASM of a B777-200LR be somewhat similar to the 773?


No, I would expect the CASM for the 77L to be much, much higher than for the dense 450-seat 77W fleet. The 77W has 50% more seats to spread the costs over, but definitely wouldn't cost 50% more to operate. Slightly higher fuel and crew costs, but certainly not 50% higher.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
hollywoodcory
Posts: 210
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2016 3:29 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:48 pm

Whiteguy wrote:
hollywoodcory wrote:
Also YUL-GRU was extended year-round.

The odd part of this is, AC hasn't even updated its winter schedule after October 25 yet but their making changes to next summer?


Most airlines have been doing the same, WS included. Forward planning for fleet availability.


Ironically, they started updating their Winter schedule a few hours after I made that post yesterday. :lol:
 
777luver
Posts: 171
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:44 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:55 pm

codyul wrote:
Here's hoping all overseas becomes mainline flying. Rouge makes sense for Carribean and secondary domestic flying.


Sounds like that’s the plan right now, unless the absorb Air Transat but even that’s a huge question mark if it’s going to happen or not, could just let it go bankrupt and collect those planes for cheap and use them as rouge part 2 just a guess
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5811
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Wed Oct 07, 2020 7:50 pm

I wonder if the routes that do not have changes (at the end of the link) will be potentially dropped, so no need for "placeholder".
 
codyul
Posts: 130
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Wed Oct 07, 2020 9:32 pm

777luver wrote:
Sounds like that’s the plan right now, unless the absorb Air Transat but even that’s a huge question mark if it’s going to happen or not, could just let it go bankrupt and collect those planes for cheap and use them as rouge part 2 just a guess


Definitely! No way the deal gets done at 18$/share that's for sure. But do they want much... Other than the LR's which are leases anyway.
Wonder if the 330-200 is of any use to AC, maybe more for Rouge, but do they really want Rouge doing overseas again. Not sure.
YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
777luver
Posts: 171
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:44 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:18 pm

codyul wrote:
777luver wrote:
Sounds like that’s the plan right now, unless the absorb Air Transat but even that’s a huge question mark if it’s going to happen or not, could just let it go bankrupt and collect those planes for cheap and use them as rouge part 2 just a guess


Definitely! No way the deal gets done at 18$/share that's for sure. But do they want much... Other than the LR's which are leases anyway.
Wonder if the 330-200 is of any use to AC, maybe more for Rouge, but do they really want Rouge doing overseas again. Not sure.

Yeah might be too much leisure routes for the next few years, and too many planes for now
 
Dominion301
Posts: 2877
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:48 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Wed Oct 07, 2020 10:50 pm

If 1/4 of this operates next summer that would be an accomplishment. COVID is not going to be magically over come IATA NS 2021...by 2022 hopefully. Keep in mind, these are only the transatlantic routes with planned equipment changes. AC methinks is using a lot of placeholders to see what sticks.
 
Salomon
Posts: 207
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 2:18 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:30 am

codyul wrote:
777luver wrote:
Sounds like that’s the plan right now, unless the absorb Air Transat but even that’s a huge question mark if it’s going to happen or not, could just let it go bankrupt and collect those planes for cheap and use them as rouge part 2 just a guess


Definitely! No way the deal gets done at 18$/share that's for sure. But do they want much... Other than the LR's which are leases anyway.
Wonder if the 330-200 is of any use to AC, maybe more for Rouge, but do they really want Rouge doing overseas again. Not sure.


5-10$/share difference doesn't add up to much in AC's shoes. 1$ equates to more or less 35 million.

To put things in perspective, for the quarter that ended a few days ago, AC themselves predicted a net cash burn of 15-17 million per day. Unrecoverable costs have already been incurred, they could face a possible penalty if they back out/renegotiate or even face a competing bid.

Will be interesting to see what happens for sure.
Takeoffs are optional; landings are mandatory.
 
flyingqueen
Posts: 60
Joined: Sun Oct 27, 2013 5:54 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:01 am

I don't understand what the problem with Air Canada is. It is a cosy duopoly in a rich nation. From the friends I have, I also hear YUL to GRU is loss making ego route of the bosses. I also surprise they do not go to more places from YYZ or add frequency.
 
codyul
Posts: 130
Joined: Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:43 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:07 am

Salomon wrote:
codyul wrote:
777luver wrote:
Sounds like that’s the plan right now, unless the absorb Air Transat but even that’s a huge question mark if it’s going to happen or not, could just let it go bankrupt and collect those planes for cheap and use them as rouge part 2 just a guess


Definitely! No way the deal gets done at 18$/share that's for sure. But do they want much... Other than the LR's which are leases anyway.
Wonder if the 330-200 is of any use to AC, maybe more for Rouge, but do they really want Rouge doing overseas again. Not sure.


5-10$/share difference doesn't add up to much in AC's shoes. 1$ equates to more or less 35 million.

To put things in perspective, for the quarter that ended a few days ago, AC themselves predicted a net cash burn of 15-17 million per day. Unrecoverable costs have already been incurred, they could face a possible penalty if they back out/renegotiate or even face a competing bid.

Will be interesting to see what happens for sure.


Seems to me exactly why AC would not spend 720$million for the emaciated bones of a devastated vacation company. There will be countless failures and bankruptcies worldwide if this continues for much longer. Better to pick at the many carcasses than to pay to play in the past.
YUL PNC :weightlifter:
 
flyyul
Posts: 4460
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2000 11:25 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:09 am

flyingqueen wrote:
I don't understand what the problem with Air Canada is. It is a cosy duopoly in a rich nation. From the friends I have, I also hear YUL to GRU is loss making ego route of the bosses. I also surprise they do not go to more places from YYZ or add frequency.


Tell me more about your friends and tell us more about routes out of YYZ that Air Canada doesn’t cover. I’m sure ego routes are well tolerated by sophisticated airlines burning significant cash on a daily basis.
 
yulexpansion
Posts: 108
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:08 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:17 pm

flyingqueen wrote:
I don't understand what the problem with Air Canada is. It is a cosy duopoly in a rich nation. From the friends I have, I also hear YUL to GRU is loss making ego route of the bosses. I also surprise they do not go to more places from YYZ or add frequency.


It's always great to throw bland statements around with no facts - clearly your friends and yourself have no idea what you're talking about.
 
777luver
Posts: 171
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2020 2:44 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:08 pm

yulexpansion wrote:
flyingqueen wrote:
I don't understand what the problem with Air Canada is. It is a cosy duopoly in a rich nation. From the friends I have, I also hear YUL to GRU is loss making ego route of the bosses. I also surprise they do not go to more places from YYZ or add frequency.


It's always great to throw bland statements around with no facts - clearly your friends and yourself have no idea what you're talking about.


✅ ✅ ✅
 
behramjee
Posts: 5119
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:47 pm

flyingqueen wrote:
I don't understand what the problem with Air Canada is. It is a cosy duopoly in a rich nation. From the friends I have, I also hear YUL to GRU is loss making ego route of the bosses. I also surprise they do not go to more places from YYZ or add frequency.


FlyingQueen...since this is an open forum, could you please advise under the current environment for S21 season, which 2 international medium/long haul routes AC should launch / restart with how many frequencies + aircraft choice if the ball was in your court.
 
HJM
Posts: 79
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2017 11:05 pm

Re: Air Canada NS21 International service changes

Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:27 pm

Need to remember that much of the traffic to Brazil comes from many places, not just only Montreal. YUL likely is a less costly airport for AC to operate from and convenient for connecting passengers.

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