I have had a look at the production numbers post 9/11
They make interesting reading.
Och weel --- I had played with the idea of mentioning same.
IIRC, last time around BA were outraged that AB never reduced production despite a severe market downturn.
BA had done exactly that.
To their detriment, as the downturn didn't last long.
BA were left high-and-dry, with AB gaining market share.
A) they will both get bailouts, as deliveries will crash. Current delivery projections are toilet-paper grade only.
B) AB will continue with extremely high production-rates; not anywhere close to deliveries - just like last time.
C) so this time, despite BA having, deservedly become highly-radioactive politically in the States, Trump will find it difficult not to finance BA to similarly produce madly through this recession.
Ironically, BA may get a fillip in that 737 production is stopped.
AB is pumping-out 3(?) NB per day.
Who do they think will be taking them?
Do AB not know that their customers are heading over the hill in a cloud of dust?
OF COURSE THEY DO!
The losses will accelerate at an amazing rate.
Faster than the AB boosters like ZK... can understand.
The markets as above have it right.
BA is (desevedly) in deep doo-doo.
But AB is too,
And the longer AB clings to the scenario of (only) 1 Month ago, then the deeper will be the hole that AB digs for itself.
Interesting I tried to find that information but I couldn't - I suspect that AB didn't reduce production that much due to Employment Rules that made it too expensive to lay-off workers and 9/11 was more of a US thing that affected the US more than anyone else - they were not ordering that many Airbus frames at that time. The bags of money Airbus was handing out at the time probably helped the Airline exec's find the funds to take delivery.
This being a Global issue will most likely affect Airbus more this time.
They can continue to produce at there existing rates when the lines return but I would be stunned if they don't have 200-300 undelivered frames sitting on the ground within 12 months if they do. Can they afford to do that without help?
On the positive side A321XLR should do well as it can replace a lot of widebody routes - but then again the calculus comes into play - with fuel this cheap - just keep your existing WB's and fly them 30-50% full until demand returns - instead of shelling out $60-80 million for a new frame.
If MAX RTS - I can see line rates being only 10-20 per month for the next few years as the will most likely have to find new Customers for a lot of the Whitetails - and this may prompt the MAX replacement sooner rather than later. 787 may go down to 4-5 and the 777X a few per month at best.
For Airbus 23-35 A320/321 Series per month for the next few years seems reasonable, and 330 a few per month if not shut down and A350 the same 4-5 per month as 787.
I don't think Airbus's social obligations were anything to do with the production rates.
I think 9/11 was very much a "US" thing, and at the time Boeing were very heavily exposed in the USA - much more than Airbus were.
They had also just accelerated output significantly - particularly of the 737NG.
I think there were other complications, like the demise of the 757, and passenger 767, and the 747-400 wind-down, leading up to the 748
This is how delivery figures went, from 2000, to 2005..
737 - 282, 299, 223, 173, 202, 212
757 - 45, 45, 29, 14, 11, 2
747 - 25, 31, 27, 19, 15, 13
767 - 44, 40, 35, 24, 9, 10
777 - 55, 61, 47, 39, 36, 40
A320 - 241, 257, 236, 233, 233, 289
A330 - 43, 35, 42, 31, 47, 56
A340 - 19, 22, 16, 33, 28, 24
It was in this period that Airbus took a dominant position in narrowbodys.
As you say, the COVID 19 crisis is much more international, and is going to affect everyone.
It is quite hard to predict what will happen as I suspect there will be a lot more worldwide government intervention.
I think narrowbody output will be more resilient, and recover quicker than widebody output (which for me had already gone over the top in terms of output, with both Airbus and Boeing announcing rate cuts.
How the huge narrowbody backlogs translate into output over the next 5 years is much harder to fathom IMO.
I don't think 2020 will look good at all. 2021 might not be great.
I think they will recover strongly from 2022