Vladex wrote:Phosphorus wrote:Vladex wrote:Emirates is the 1. airline in the world and Singapore is the second one and they are guaranteed to prevail over this hysteria and groundings. All these other airlines that you talk about will be decimated and EK and SQ will pick up their traffic so they will need A380's if anything. Furthermore , I just don't see Airbus delivering 100 of A350's and 700 of A320's this year and next year, Tough talk is only impressive to weaklings.
Suppose if you are right, and it's that bad, that airlines worldwide drop like flies, while mighty EK and SQ soldier on.
What happens after travel starts to reopen? Do you really expect the world economy to rebound so fast, that the world runs out of available airframes quickly, higher-capacity airframes will be so sought after, that A380 is becoming a hot commodity and sells like hotcakes, with EK leading the charge?
If that is the case, owners of other A380 will be climbing over each other, trying to sell or lease their frames to EK at very attractive rates. All the Malaysian and Thai and Asiana's and probably even ANA's, Air France's and Etihad's would be available...
I don't know what you just wrote as it doesn't make sense now . EK and SQ are totally different not just in terms of brand and quality but in the ways to rebound from this than Norwegian, Air France or even Cathay. Dubai and Singapore are relatively less affected by this grounding then others as they are far away from Europe , China and USA .They won't be taking in A380's from others as it doesn't fit their fleet. There will be a lot of deferrals and cancellations this year for other planes (A320, A350). All these other airlines will be very slow to get up to speed however EK and SQ will be very quick as they didn't suffer much, they are city states so they have less politics to deal with and they are totally supported by their owners while passengers will be looking for reliability.
"Doesn't make sense"? All, right, let's simplify, then maybe you'll comprehend:
1) worldwide air travel business is in bad shape.
2) all airframes suddenly became less desirable and thus cheaper
3) VLA frames are particularly hard-hit, and there is an overhang/surplus of them
4) the current crisis will badly affect all major economies, as the system was overdue for correction; now the correction will be very painful
5) air travel will take a long time to rebound to previous levels
6) even if there are a couple of city-states that have pockets so deep, that they can coast through this crisis "no sweat", the rest of the world is less fortunate
7) connection model for city-state airlines relies on transfer pax
8) these transfer pax numbers are not expected to jump. Moreover, these transfer pax will continue to travel from varied points to varied destinations = fragmentation stays
As a result, it doesn't make sense for Airbus to spend money to restart a VLA line into this crisis, just over a hunch that EK and SQ will order more A380.
Fortunately, you do not need to take my word for it. We have reliable indicators -- whether your "theory" is right or not:
1) factory-fresh A380 that are completed (or being completed) for EK. If EK rushes to pick them up and press them into service is one indicator
2) utilisation of A380 frames already on property at EK and SQ. If they are all flying and very busy -- another indicator
3) second-hand market. You might say that others' second hand frames don't "fit their fleet". But A380 are now cheap, reconfiguration costs are known, and if there's a need -- there's a way. So if A380's get picked up and pressed into service -- that's yet another indicator
I'm afraid you do not see that we are heading for a bit of a "reset" and things will be somewhat different, when we come out of this crisis. But we'll see. Again, you do not need to believe; proof is on its way, one way or the other.