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HNLSLCPDX
Posts: 211
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 5:40 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:55 am

Of course this is my opinion and my own prediction. And I apologize for the long post. I think DL focuses on its money making hubs and core hubs of ATL, SLC, DTW, and MSP to move passengers around the country. But they all will see a reduction in service in their own way and amounts. The random p2p flights and long thin routes, the Saturday only flights will all be cut, such as PDX-LAS, MEM-LAX, BDL-CUN, LAS-SAN, and IND-CDG. I think CVG will be reduced to service to the hubs only. I think the RDU focus city goes away and only maintains service to the main hubs as well as to BOS, ORD, MIA, DCA, MCO, and TPA.

Maybe this prediction of mine is dramatic but I also think the reduction of the coastal hubs of SEA and BOS will be reduced by quit a bit and SEA might simply be reduced to what is called a focus city. In the case of BOS I could see DL pulling back their plans to make BOS a major international gateway and just have service to its main hubs, and just overall service to ATL, LGA, JFK, SLC, LAX, DCA, ORD, RDU, DTW, MSP, MCO, and MIA. It would definitely be a win for B6. I think LAX will pretty much stay the same with some frequency reductions here and there.

In NYC, I think LGA will see a reduction in regional flights flown by the connection carriers. JFK might see a reduction in flights but I think the routes stay in place. It goes back to my thought process of DL focusing mainly on Europe from ATL and JFK and with that I think they’ll need all the connecting feed to go into that. To go along with that and lastly, I think DL will be relying on its JV partners now more than ever when it comes to their international network.
 
airzona11
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:00 am

It has been a decade or so since the last chance to clear the least desirable aspects of the business, now comes another chance. Will be interesting to see how much taxpayers fund.
 
crj900lr
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:05 am

strfyr51 wrote:
Delta has "Hubs at ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC. and now SEA. Other than ATL does anybody notice something wrong? Where ARE hubs along the southern tier or in the West? why not a Texas or Southwestern Hub? American Has PHX, in the Southwest Nobody really owns LAX as a hub So? Where would they spread their hubs TO?
Southwest went in big at Denver so they have a large hub in the gateway to the west. From there they hub OAK. So? Delta can diversify their hubs but to exactly where?




Didn't DL have DFW at one point along with AA? I believe they were 1 & 2 at DFW then DL up and left basically leaving DFW to AA. Can't remember why DL left though.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:11 am

I take that as a shift to hubs. I bet we see all of the big three and even southwest do this.
Force people to connect more. Future demand is unknown for a bit. Focus cities or o&d routes will be cut. LAS, RDU I would expect to see cuts coming and never come back. actually think this could be worst for SEA if a hub sees a real big hit. They gave it 110% effort but with AS/AA enhanced partnership coming that's only gonna get harder.

For the core hubs I really do think they are all safe! If there is overlap and it's not distance it's DTW/MSP both operate alot of the same traffic flows from East to West. Neither will be dehubbed they each serve a place but they overlap the most in flows. Dtw and NYC are closer but operate totally different cities and flows. Again I do not think any hubs will get dehubbed just if there is fat to cut those overlap a bit. The other hubs are all more unique.
 
HNLSLCPDX
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:20 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I take that as a shift to hubs. I bet we see all of the big three and even southwest do this.
Force people to connect more. Future demand is unknown for a bit. Focus cities or o&d routes will be cut. LAS, RDU I would expect to see cuts coming and never come back. actually think this could be worst for SEA if a hub sees a real big hit. They gave it 110% effort but with AS/AA enhanced partnership coming that's only gonna get harder.

For the core hubs I really do think they are all safe! If there is overlap and it's not distance it's DTW/MSP both operate alot of the same traffic flows from East to West. Neither will be dehubbed they each serve a place but they overlap the most in flows. Dtw and NYC are closer but operate totally different cities and flows. Again I do not think any hubs will get dehubbed just if there is fat to cut those overlap a bit. The other hubs are all more unique.


I agree. Like you said I think the US3 and WN focus on their main hubs. And I think SEA for DL is reduced to a focus city at best. Along those airlines I see Frontier, Allegiant, and Breeze (whenever they start) as big winners with a lot of room to grow with a ton of p2p options becoming available without competition.
Last edited by HNLSLCPDX on Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:24 am

4engines4lnghll wrote:
Every airline will become smaller as far as operations. TPG likes to think they know the ends and outs of airlines, but in fact they're just repeat travel bloggers.


No, TPG are click bait authors, and do they a dang good job at it, given how often the site is referenced here.
 
alasizon
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:26 am

The actual article itself has very little meat, just a lot of fluff. Yes, DL will come out smaller temporarily but there is no real way of saying how long.

I think retreating 20-25% in SEA is a must in order to preserve the better yielding connecting opportunities from ATL, MSP & SLC. A decline of about 10-15% in NYC & BOS are also both likely due to the drop in business traffic. I foresee a little overlap trimming at LAX (overlap with SLC & SEA) & DTW (overlap with MSP & NYC) temporarily so those will likely be down 2-3%.

As far as all the small focus cities; who knows. They could either help or hurt, it just depends on where the economy is in those markets.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:31 am

lightsaber wrote:
Polot wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
Depends on how busy AMS, CDG, and LHR would be after this event, Delta should develop a low cost no curfew Eastern European hub for Eastward traffic.

Delta will still be partners with AF/KL/VS. What you are suggesting sounds like a recipe for disaster.

Developing a new hub is out if the question. It is a while out before hub congestion in Europe or Asia influences strategy. Now, DL might buy LHR slots while competition is hurting, but that is all for Europe investment in 2020.

Lightsaber


I agree that temporarily it may solve the hub congestion issue, but the side effect of European bailouts is stronger unions.

Curfew issue will remain unsolved. Fragmentation is still and issue. Premium vs low-cost hub segregation is an issue.

Unless DL can pickup LHR/CDG/AMS slots dime-a-dozen now, these will go back up rather quickly again.

TATL O&D premium traffic was the driving factor in DL pandering AF/KL. TATL revenue was slacking even before COVID19.

We don't know how future corporate travel will shape up.

We don't know ULH even makes sense. Can a small network cross subsidize a ULH route, if it is not profitable on its own?

Lot of unknowns.

IMHO, make current EU SkyTeam hubs O&D exclusive and use a small amount of cash-of-hand and build up a curfew free low cost EEU wayport which allows both FSC and LCCs. Pickup equity in one of the airline and build a unfragmented global network.
All posts are just opinions.
 
babastud
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:37 am

SEA is toast for the time being, Why? because it's competitive in a way some of the other hubs are not and it has been over served recently with routes expanding left and right as the AS/Delta battle rages. No one will want any part of this battle as time goes on. AS will fight for it's life and consolidate more at SEA. Delta will scale back and it should.
 
SoEWR
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:47 am

Any update on DL or VS at EWR. VS just stopped flying EWR to LHR completely
 
NZ321
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:54 am

flyingisthebest wrote:
The biggest winners if they give up SEA/MIA and BOS will be AA, AS and B6.


But at times like this we tend to forget that everybody is more or less in the same position. Everybody is in a fight for survivial and everybody will be making cuts and retrenching. Not like DL will emerge smaller and nobody else will.
Plane mad!
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:07 am

NZ321 wrote:
flyingisthebest wrote:
The biggest winners if they give up SEA/MIA and BOS will be AA, AS and B6.


But at times like this we tend to forget that everybody is more or less in the same position. Everybody is in a fight for survivial and everybody will be making cuts and retrenching. Not like DL will emerge smaller and nobody else will.


That's the old 'Two guys and a bear' story. 'I don't need to outrun the bear. I just need to outrun YOU.'

Delta's network competition is AA and UA. It needs to outrun even just ONE of them. Piece of cake.

DL built up SEA, LAX and BOS because they are big, wealthy markets, in a way that MEM and CVG never would be (again). They are strategic. Those hub ops will survive. So will DTW: a few people really, really, need to look at the route maps and frequencies for MSP vs. DTW. You don't collapse the hub system out of fear of a 15% drop in traffic a year from now.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:22 am

IWMBH wrote:
But, why wouldn't air traffic return to normal after the virus outbreak is over? In Europe most governments are pouring money into their economies to keep businesses 'alive' till they can reopen again after the crises. I'm sure the US economy will also get incentivises.


Suppose that the vaccine were released *today.* It would probably take six months for a significant proportion of the population to get it.

Now, if the magic dust fell from the sky *today* and it all disappeared, I guess everything would go back to normal pretty quickly. But that's not going to happen. All the "shelter in place" can't be sustainable past 2-3 months, but there will still be social isolation. A ton of small businesses will go out of business. There will still be fear. And I suspect that it will be a very long time before the cruise industry recovers.

There will be a lot of economic pain and it will take a few years for the economy to recover.

But there's more. During this crisis, people are already turning to telecommunication. Work-From-Home is working. I suspect that the demand for business travel will never go back to what it was as these technologies improve during this time. Today, I went to my gym class in my backyard...the instructor was on my iPad and we could all see each-other and encourage each-other. Tonight, I'm hanging out with friends...in my living room. We're using Zoom. I think that as these technologies improve and get less laggy, we will genuinely see that having to fly to NRT for a meeting just isn't as necessary.

The airliners will fly again. They will all have two engines. Perhaps a few remaining 748s will grace the sky, but I think that the A380 and all other models of 747 will be gone.

This isn't 9/11 (a short, sharp shock). This is going to be a long and painful experience.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:28 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
DL built up SEA, LAX and BOS because they are big, wealthy markets, in a way that MEM and CVG never would be (again). They are strategic. Those hub ops will survive. So will DTW: a few people really, really, need to look at the route maps and frequencies for MSP vs. DTW. You don't collapse the hub system out of fear of a 15% drop in traffic a year from now.


Seattle is going to hurt during this recession (the impact of Boeing practically coming to a standstill, California-based tech companies closing satellite offices, etc.). I think it was always questionable if Seattle could support two large airline hubs long-term -- SEA was undoubtedly a long-term investment for DL, likely to yet make a cent a profit as DL awaited for the market to mature -- and now, instead of the truck needing maintenance, the wheels have completely fallen off. That said, I don't expect DL to kill the hub, but I suspect that within the coming months, it'll feel the impact of the cuts harder than other hubs.

I'm still surprised by the number of users who think this will all be over in a few months, and next year we'll be setting new traffic records. Recovery will likely be more slow and painful than it was following the Great Recession...
 
Swadian
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:33 am

IWMBH wrote:
But, why wouldn't air traffic return to normal after the virus outbreak is over? In Europe most governments are pouring money into their economies to keep businesses 'alive' till they can reopen again after the crises. I'm sure the US economy will also get incentivises.


Because the government can't keep bailing out everyone when no one is working, paying taxes, or putting money back into the economy.
 
716131
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:43 am

This means that DL will be smaller than UA and AA?
If it's not Boeing, I'm not going!
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:45 am

After ATL, Delta's second largest base is NYC (LGA and JFK, which would normally have about 500 daily flights between the two airfields). But NYC is the major epicenter of the coronavirus, which could severely impact the NYC market. Obviously DL won't bail on MSP, DTW, or SLC, as like ATL, they're fortress hubs for DL (the former two inherited from NW with SLC inherited from WA) or NYC or LA, but NYC will be a slow recovery.

As for the fleet, I could see DL keeping the A21N delivery schedule, but defer the A339s except as needed to replace B763s that are nearly out of hours. I see the lease of two A339s from Air Lease Corporation being canceled as well, and it will be interesting as to whether or not ALC can find another customer. The future of the A359s and A35Ks still on order (I believe the two that are flying were acquired from LATAM with a QR lease attached); DL might seek to find another airline or leasing company to take at least part of the order...or maybe QF could be interested in earlier A35K delivery slots without needing to place its own order and DL could sell the slots, or arrange for a lessor to manage leases to QF on behalf of DL to make money for DL.

Most in danger for DL, I would say, is SEA, as AA has begun making inroads there and that will be a oneworld hub soon. BOS will be needed as basically JFK overflow (JFK being slot-restricted), and I see the CVG focus city operation also being wound down.

Separately, there should be similar threads for B6 and UA, as NYC is B6's largest base and headquarters, and UA has a fortress hub at EWR.
Last edited by aemoreira1981 on Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
Jshank83
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:46 am

I don’t get why people think they need/will close big a hub? The article lists core hubs as ATL/DTW/MSP/SLC. I can’t see any of those going anywhere. If anything they could make those bigger and get out of focus cities. If they are going to pull back I’d guess one of those others like CVG/SEA/BOS. If I had to pick one I’d say probably this could get them to finally draw CVG all the way down.
 
evank516
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:49 am

Midwestindy wrote:
SESGDL wrote:
DDR wrote:
It's a given that ATL is safe. Anything else is up in the air. I do hope they retrench from SEA and keep to their other historic hubs.


Totally disagree. ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC and LGA/JFK are all safe. Why would DL abandon "captive" markets? Air travel will eventually rebound. Giving up markets would be lunacy. LAX, BOS and SEA could definitely be at risk, though.

Jeremy


LAX is not at risk, they won't drawdown SEA & LAX, that would leave them with nothing on the west coast & no-TPAC gateway(Excluding DTW)


Actually I might disagree, they dropped LAX as a hub before about 8-10 years ago, I wouldn't be surprised to see them do it again. History does repeat itself after all.
 
deltairlines
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:01 am

evank516 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
SESGDL wrote:

Totally disagree. ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC and LGA/JFK are all safe. Why would DL abandon "captive" markets? Air travel will eventually rebound. Giving up markets would be lunacy. LAX, BOS and SEA could definitely be at risk, though.

Jeremy


LAX is not at risk, they won't drawdown SEA & LAX, that would leave them with nothing on the west coast & no-TPAC gateway(Excluding DTW)


Actually I might disagree, they dropped LAX as a hub before about 8-10 years ago, I wouldn't be surprised to see them do it again. History does repeat itself after all.


I don't see Delta completely walking away from all the investments they've already made into T2/T3. Maybe some of the partners move from TBIT to T2/T3 to help fill in some of the space (AM and VS are already there, I think WS as well).
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:19 am

DocLightning wrote:
[quote=
The airliners will fly again. They will all have two engines. Perhaps a few remaining 748s will grace the sky, but I think that the A380 and all other models of 747 will be gone.
This isn't 9/11 (a short, sharp shock). This is going to be a long and painful experience.

The A380s will all most likely be taken out of service. The leased ones will be returned to lessors, possibly with a heavy penalty unless there is a force majeure clause in the leases or a high powered attorney can force the return of the A380s through court action and/or the threat of some kind of bankruptcy. The A380s that are actually owned by the airline will be the airline's problem. Those few that are under actual production most likely will not be taken up and any deposits may be forfeited. The A380 as built has no life as a freighter and may all soon be basking in the sun and heat for some time. The 747-8i maybe will soldier on for a while and do have the possibility of being converted into freighters. :old:
Last edited by NWAROOSTER on Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:20 am

lightsaber wrote:
Good question. 600+ Aircraft to be parked:

https://news.delta.com/ed-bastian-memo- ... our-future

I personally think SLC and MSP are a bit close for hubs. One or the other will be downsized, but I fully admit, I do not know which.

Complete aircraft deferals tells me DL negotiated well.

I expect many long/thin routes to be cut. The era of yours truly having a selection of TCON direct flights is probably over.


I don't see DL making dramatic downsizing at SLC, especially with the impending opening of the new terminal there. MSP might be the one that gets downsized under your theory. That said, I would also predict that MSP takes a beating as it's not only close to SLC, but also DTW. In the long run, does it make sense for DL to maintain two major hubs within a 90 minute flight in either direction of ORD/MDW?

I don't know how long DL can hold on to deferrals, since you're looking at a lot of ex-NW 319/320s in need of replacement.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
Next: TBA
 
evank516
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:20 am

deltairlines wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

LAX is not at risk, they won't drawdown SEA & LAX, that would leave them with nothing on the west coast & no-TPAC gateway(Excluding DTW)


Actually I might disagree, they dropped LAX as a hub before about 8-10 years ago, I wouldn't be surprised to see them do it again. History does repeat itself after all.


I don't see Delta completely walking away from all the investments they've already made into T2/T3. Maybe some of the partners move from TBIT to T2/T3 to help fill in some of the space (AM and VS are already there, I think WS as well).


I'm sure they won't, but they've ramped up LAX in the past and pulled back only a couple of years later.
 
flyboy80
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:24 am

Didn’t they build up LAX briefly during the recession, or right after, with expressjet ERJ flying and maybe a flight to GRU? If anyone pulls back LAX of the US3 I see United more likely than Delta.
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:26 am

tphuang wrote:
based on their initial cuts, I think RDU is getting reduced for sure. Their focus city strategies is going by the away side. After that, it really depends on where corporate spending is at. If that is down 20%, then one of BOS or SEA is getting axed imo. If they want to keep up the fight with AA, then SEA/MIA size stick around.

In the end, for DL to be successful long term, they are reliant on ATL and their core hubs. So none of the core hubs should be reduced. And they are definitely not going to abandon ship on NYC or LA.

We should probably also have the same conversation about other carriers. It's not fair to just speculate on DL reductions.


I'm hoping that DL isn't going to apply the same thinking at DFW that's being suggested for RDU. The A220 has really proven to be a godsend and I know I'd rather fly DL knowing the 220 is on a particular route that's competing with AA.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
Next: TBA
 
Noise
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:26 am

I don't think DL is going to cut any of its hubs. The focus-city operations in CVG and RDU, however, are in jeopardy.
 
744SPX
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:26 am

"Emerging a smaller carrier" is perhaps a bit premature. I'll wait until ~June 1 to make an assessment.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:36 am

TYWoolman wrote:
This entire situation will be "used' to extract the left-over merger inefficiencies that have existed in the larger carriers. Everything will all be relative so most airlines will do fine as each finds a balance in discovering where growth will re-emerge.


I suspect some routes have long been unprofitable for DL and other airlines, don't feed enough pax to longer flights, so this will be a good excuse to ditch them, reassign aircraft where more profitable. Some locations may be downgraded as to frequency and size of plane used or transferred to DL branded 'commuter' companies and away from mainline. I expect significant and accelerated retirement of their most inefficient planes, use tax laws to do massive depreciation and other write-offs. They may shrink enough so don't have to have fares to match LCC/ULCC's and keep up profits. I expect at all airlines, major cuts in compensation for executives and no raises, indeed pay cuts for line employees.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:40 am

ctrabs0114 wrote:
I don't see DL making dramatic downsizing at SLC, especially with the impending opening of the new terminal there. MSP might be the one that gets downsized under your theory. That said, I would also predict that MSP takes a beating as it's not only close to SLC, but also DTW. In the long run, does it make sense for DL to maintain two major hubs within a 90 minute flight in either direction of ORD/MDW?


I don't follow your logic. You see DL downsizing or closing DTW, which has a relatively new terminal constructed in phases in the last 12-18 years and is more elaborate than the terminal being constructed at SLC (swelling construction costs would make replicating DTW's design cost prohibitive today) ... but you don't see DL touching SLC because of its new terminal? NW actually operated a larger hub from the now-demolished terminal at DTW than DL does today. Put simply, having a new or nice terminal isn't going to be a factor in the schedule DL puts out in the future.

The hubs at both DTW and MSP are largely stagnant in size since the end of the Great Recession. SLC has swelled in size, and much of it is based off of overflying DTW & MSP from the Midwest on flights comprised largely of connecting traffic. Most, if not all, of these flights will be cut; with DL likely to cut its active fleet in size to save on cost, it no longer makes as much sense to fly CLE-SLC-CLE on a A320 when that plane could be making multiple turns to DTW or ATL.

I don't know how long DL can hold on to deferrals, since you're looking at a lot of ex-NW 319/320s in need of replacement.


For a long time. DL's flying MD-80, B757 and B763 that are now over 30-years-old. The first A319 won't reach that age until 9 more years. There's roughly 150 aircraft in the active fleet older than 25-years-old, and as it was there was significant down town in fleet types outside the summer season. It'll be a very long time before DL needs all of these planes once again...
 
Atlwarrior
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:48 am

Come on, where are people critical thinking and judicious skills. Of course Delta wanted this release before the Government bailout. It’s very strategic and it’s way to early to be discussing this until the fallout is done.
 
ctrabs0114
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:53 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:
I don't see DL making dramatic downsizing at SLC, especially with the impending opening of the new terminal there. MSP might be the one that gets downsized under your theory. That said, I would also predict that MSP takes a beating as it's not only close to SLC, but also DTW. In the long run, does it make sense for DL to maintain two major hubs within a 90 minute flight in either direction of ORD/MDW?


I don't follow your logic. You see DL downsizing or closing DTW, which has a relatively new terminal constructed in phases in the last 12-18 years and is more elaborate than the terminal being constructed at SLC (swelling construction costs would make replicating DTW's design cost prohibitive today) ... but you don't see DL touching SLC because of its new terminal? NW actually operated a larger hub from the now-demolished terminal at DTW than DL does today. Put simply, having a new or nice terminal isn't going to be a factor in the schedule DL puts out in the future.

The hubs at both DTW and MSP are largely stagnant in size since the end of the Great Recession. SLC has swelled in size, and much of it is based off of overflying DTW & MSP from the Midwest on flights comprised largely of connecting traffic. Most, if not all, of these flights will be cut; with DL likely to cut its active fleet in size to save on cost, it no longer makes as much sense to fly CLE-SLC-CLE on a A320 when that plane could be making multiple turns to DTW or ATL.


I never said anything about downsizing DTW (others may have, but I have not suggested closing DTW). MSP is the DL hub I'd be worried about. Based on the other comments in this thread, there's some debate as to whether SLC is the ideal Western Non-Coastal hub (much like DEN is for UA and WN or PHX is to AA). You mentioned the new terminal at DTW and I alluded to the new SLC terminal; I brought up SLC because I would think that DL made a significant investment in the terminal reconstruction there. My thinking is that I don't see much of a terminal modernization plan for MSP compared to what we saw at DTW or SLC.
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USAirALB
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:58 am

Atlwarrior wrote:
Come on, where are people critical thinking and judicious skills. Of course Delta wanted this release before the Government bailout. It’s very strategic and it’s way to early to be discussing this until the fallout is done.

This. It's a little pre-mature.

I will say that Delta has the most P2P flying out of any of the US3. I would be somewhat concerned if I were the CEO of CVG at the moment. I can see regional being reduced at CVG (AUS/BWI/CLT/DFW/BDL/MCI/DEN/PHL/STL/YYZ) leaving only mainline to the hubs, Florida, and possibly CUN and other large DL stations.

The RDU focus city I would say is up at the air at this point. At the end of the day the focus city makes sense in a good economy but I question its profitability in a long term economic downturn. It doesn't make sense for them to feed connections through RDU and if O/D is reduced due the decrease in business travel, then it might be on the chopping block.
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ShinyAndChrome
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:16 am

SQ789 wrote:
This means that DL will be smaller than UA and AA?


Fwiw, AA already has a bigger fleet and more destinations if I recall correctly.

But in any case, AA, UA, and rest of the airlines have probably been saying the same things internally. It just hasn't gotten leaked to TPG yet. Between all the accelerated retirements and deferred deliveries, it'll probably be a few years at least before any airline reaches the size it was before this mess.
Last edited by ShinyAndChrome on Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:18 am

SESGDL wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
Could MSP, BOS, JFK/LGA, & SLC not theoretically do everything that DTW does today...?


Sure, but DTW is DL's third largest station behind ATL & NYC (the combined JFK/LGA) in terms of generating local passengers and local revenues...


DTW is actually a smaller O&D airport and revenue generator for DL. There was a publication a few years ago that showed this. ATL was 1 (obviously), followed by MSP. DTW is a larger connecting hub than MSP, however.

Jeremy


Domestically, yes. Internationally, no. The O&D charts released are domestic only.

DTW-Asia is much larger than MSP-Asia in O&D. DTW-Europe is larger too but its very concentrated in a few countries like Germany.

Neither hub is going anywhere though.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:20 am

ctrabs0114 wrote:
I never said anything about downsizing DTW (others may have, but I have not suggested closing DTW). MSP is the DL hub I'd be worried about. Based on the other comments in this thread, there's some debate as to whether SLC is the ideal Western Non-Coastal hub (much like DEN is for UA and WN or PHX is to AA). You mentioned the new terminal at DTW and I alluded to the new SLC terminal; I brought up SLC because I would think that DL made a significant investment in the terminal reconstruction there. My thinking is that I don't see much of a terminal modernization plan for MSP compared to what we saw at DTW or SLC.


DL isn't paying toward the new SLC terminal. DL gave its blessing to the project when it was expected to be funded primarily with cash (investments), grants, PFC and rental car surcharges but very little debt... now it's expected that roughly 2-3 the cost will be funded with debt, and that number will likely rise. Obviously the larger the annual debt servicing cost, the more it'll have to change in fees to its tenants. While they may not be vocal publicly, I guarantee you DL's not pleased with that development, given the new terminal was sold to them as having little impact on their costs.

And while MSP choose not to build new facilities, it made a large investment in expanding and renovating the facilities (almost the same amount of money DTW spent on its new facilities). It's still among the top facilities in the country, better than ATL, DFW, IAH, etc.
 
Insertnamehere
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:28 am

I see this is as partially an opportunity for DL to really push into the NYC market.
AA has too much debt on its heels and B6 doesn't have the resources for when demand begins to increase DL will be able to quickly expand and capture even more market share of NYC then they already do.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:29 am

If it’s a fact like some people claim, that the SEA hub is the poorest performer in the system, then I can’t see many of SEA routes surviving. Remaining in my opinion will only be flights to other hubs and maybe KIX, AMS and HND.
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:34 am

[quote="ctrabs0114"]
I don't see DL making dramatic downsizing at SLC, especially with the impending opening of the new terminal there. MSP might be the one that gets downsized under your theory. That said, I would also predict that MSP takes a beating as it's not only close to SLC, but also DTW. In the long run, does it make sense for DL to maintain two major hubs within a 90 minute flight in either direction of ORD/MDW?

MSP and DTW are 525 miles apart while DTW and ORD are 235 miles apart and MSP and ORD 335 miles apart. Northwest Airlines inherited DTW from the merger with Republic Airlines. Northwest decided to use DTW as a European gateway to avoid using JFK and ORD which were heavily crowded with flights that originated in the eastern United States. Northwest did use JFK to HND in Japan. They even had their own hotel in Tokyo which they used for crew lay overs and passenger overnights. Northwest also used DTW for non stops to Japan. Northwest Airlines invested heavily in the upgrading and expansion of DTW. Northwest used both DTW and MSP for both Pacific and Atlantic flights Both airports are modern and well run operations and were used to avoid Chicago's ORD.
Delta now has a large maintenance base at MSP, as well as ATL, which will enter into the decision of how to use both MSP and DTW. In my opinion, Delta will keep both and continue to operate the well established SLC hub which is also good for Pacific flights. If Delta retreats from any of the three, which they basically control, they will be inviting a competitor to start operating from any that it would abandon. :old:
Last edited by NWAROOSTER on Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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DeltaPSCFlyer
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:36 am

All interesting replies, but it seems like they all look through the lens of how Delta was/is before all this started.

Once we're past the worst of this virus, it will be the overall domestic and global airline industry landscape that will ultimately have a profound impact on DL, and how they plot their recovery.

Questions:
- What will market demand for international travel look like, and where will it be strong and weak?
- How fast will the economy recover?
- What will be the longer-term ramifications on everyday air travel be like? (TSA after 9/11, social distancing, etc.)
- How will other domestic airline competitors like AS, UA, AA, WN, and B6 emerge and what changes will they make?
- What domestic competitors may merge or disappear?
- What international competitors may merge or disappear?
- How will DL's alliance partners emerge? KE? KL? VS?
Last edited by DeltaPSCFlyer on Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:45 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
Detroit313
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:36 am

Give Seattle to Alaska, Boston to JetBlue and focus on ATL, MSP, DTW and SLC.
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:44 am

Detroit313 wrote:
Give Seattle to Alaska, Boston to JetBlue and focus on ATL, MSP, DTW and SLC.


Smart move. One of the better statements made.......... :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
onwFan
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:46 am

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
Of course this is my opinion and my own prediction. And I apologize for the long post. I think DL focuses on its money making hubs and core hubs of ATL, SLC, DTW, and MSP to move passengers around the country. But they all will see a reduction in service in their own way and amounts. The random p2p flights and long thin routes, the Saturday only flights will all be cut, such as PDX-LAS, MEM-LAX, BDL-CUN, LAS-SAN, and IND-CDG. I think CVG will be reduced to service to the hubs only. I think the RDU focus city goes away and only maintains service to the main hubs as well as to BOS, ORD, MIA, DCA, MCO, and TPA.

Maybe this prediction of mine is dramatic but I also think the reduction of the coastal hubs of SEA and BOS will be reduced by quit a bit and SEA might simply be reduced to what is called a focus city. In the case of BOS I could see DL pulling back their plans to make BOS a major international gateway and just have service to its main hubs, and just overall service to ATL, LGA, JFK, SLC, LAX, DCA, ORD, RDU, DTW, MSP, MCO, and MIA. It would definitely be a win for B6. I think LAX will pretty much stay the same with some frequency reductions here and there.

In NYC, I think LGA will see a reduction in regional flights flown by the connection carriers. JFK might see a reduction in flights but I think the routes stay in place. It goes back to my thought process of DL focusing mainly on Europe from ATL and JFK and with that I think they’ll need all the connecting feed to go into that. To go along with that and lastly, I think DL will be relying on its JV partners now more than ever when it comes to their international network.

My guess is very similar as well. One of the secondary hubs of SEA/BOS or both will see reduction in some form or the other and become a focus city. I would really be surprised if DL chooses to downsize other stations to fight B6 and AS in BOS and SEA in the current situation. Retreating from focus cities like CVG, RDU, BNA and IND coupled with a renewed focus on fortress hubs also seem to be the logical way forward. A lot of spoke-spoke routes like LAS-PDX/SAN/SJC also might get chopped.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:50 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
ctrabs0114 wrote:
I never said anything about downsizing DTW (others may have, but I have not suggested closing DTW). MSP is the DL hub I'd be worried about. Based on the other comments in this thread, there's some debate as to whether SLC is the ideal Western Non-Coastal hub (much like DEN is for UA and WN or PHX is to AA). You mentioned the new terminal at DTW and I alluded to the new SLC terminal; I brought up SLC because I would think that DL made a significant investment in the terminal reconstruction there. My thinking is that I don't see much of a terminal modernization plan for MSP compared to what we saw at DTW or SLC.


DL isn't paying toward the new SLC terminal. DL gave its blessing to the project when it was expected to be funded primarily with cash (investments), grants, PFC and rental car surcharges but very little debt... now it's expected that roughly 2-3 the cost will be funded with debt, and that number will likely rise. Obviously the larger the annual debt servicing cost, the more it'll have to change in fees to its tenants. While they may not be vocal publicly, I guarantee you DL's not pleased with that development, given the new terminal was sold to them as having little impact on their costs.

And while MSP choose not to build new facilities, it made a large investment in expanding and renovating the facilities (almost the same amount of money DTW spent on its new facilities). It's still among the top facilities in the country, better than ATL, DFW, IAH, etc.


Sorry this is not correct . Delta did put out there own money for items they wanted to include. Delta agreed to the plans then later put out cash for certain things they wanted. Not insignificant money either.


Additionally for cost overruns you do realize they ended up building alot more than they started right? They chose to go that route to get more gates as they decided it was cheaper and given SLC growth rate would be too small too soon. The airport was sitting on a ton of cash their plans have been extremely conservative . It will still be a very low cost airport to operate from and even more on time (if that's even possible).

Plus delta just extended and is on a very long term lease at SLC. They are going nowhere, and the new terminals looks awesome and are super conservative financially
Last edited by slcdeltarumd11 on Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Byrdluvs747
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 4:57 am

flyboy80 wrote:
If anyone pulls back LAX of the US3 I see United more likely than Delta.


Interesting. Isnt UA committed to T9? How would they back out of that?
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ikolkyo
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:08 am

I'm willing to bet a lot of aircraft at the US3 have flown their last revenue flights.
 
DeltaPSCFlyer
Posts: 77
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:11 am

Byrdluvs747 wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
If anyone pulls back LAX of the US3 I see United more likely than Delta.


Interesting. Isnt UA committed to T9? How would they back out of that?


I agree that UA would pull back LAX before DL. They are not as big internationally there, and SFO is and always has been their fortress hub. They will consolidate international flights at SFO, and leverage their partners at LAX when needed. While a topic for a new thread, for UA...I can see them drawing IAH and IAD wayyyyyy back.

As for T9, I don't have the specifics on it, or what the agreement states, but everything is negotiable...
 
AirFiero
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:55 am

DocLightning wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
But, why wouldn't air traffic return to normal after the virus outbreak is over? In Europe most governments are pouring money into their economies to keep businesses 'alive' till they can reopen again after the crises. I'm sure the US economy will also get incentivises.


Suppose that the vaccine were released *today.* It would probably take six months for a significant proportion of the population to get it.

Now, if the magic dust fell from the sky *today* and it all disappeared, I guess everything would go back to normal pretty quickly. But that's not going to happen. All the "shelter in place" can't be sustainable past 2-3 months, but there will still be social isolation. A ton of small businesses will go out of business. There will still be fear. And I suspect that it will be a very long time before the cruise industry recovers.

There will be a lot of economic pain and it will take a few years for the economy to recover.

But there's more. During this crisis, people are already turning to telecommunication. Work-From-Home is working. I suspect that the demand for business travel will never go back to what it was as these technologies improve during this time. Today, I went to my gym class in my backyard...the instructor was on my iPad and we could all see each-other and encourage each-other. Tonight, I'm hanging out with friends...in my living room. We're using Zoom. I think that as these technologies improve and get less laggy, we will genuinely see that having to fly to NRT for a meeting just isn't as necessary.

The airliners will fly again. They will all have two engines. Perhaps a few remaining 748s will grace the sky, but I think that the A380 and all other models of 747 will be gone.

This isn't 9/11 (a short, sharp shock). This is going to be a long and painful experience.


Wow. I se it as the exact opposite. A short term scare/panic over a virus that isn’t Ebola or the thing that turns people into zombies like the Walking Dead. Air travel demand was strong and growing until a few weeks ago. Now the world is coming to an end? Jesus, people, has humanity become that cynical?
 
hpff
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:59 am

AirFiero wrote:
Wow. I se it as the exact opposite. A short term scare/panic over a virus that isn’t Ebola or the thing that turns people into zombies like the Walking Dead. Air travel demand was strong and growing until a few weeks ago. Now the world is coming to an end? Jesus, people, has humanity become that cynical?


Less than three weeks ago, most of my friends were employed.

This isn't going away tomorrow. Will it be short term? Yes, but it depends on how you define short term. It could be up to a year, and the economic impacts of this will last longer, especially since western governments can't quite seem to be able to figure any of this out.
 
hpff
Posts: 90
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:03 am

DeltaPSCFlyer wrote:
All interesting replies, but it seems like they all look through the lens of how Delta was/is before all this started.

Once we're past the worst of this virus, it will be the overall domestic and global airline industry landscape that will ultimately have a profound impact on DL, and how they plot their recovery.

Questions:
- What will market demand for international travel look like, and where will it be strong and weak?
- How fast will the economy recover?
- What will be the longer-term ramifications on everyday air travel be like? (TSA after 9/11, social distancing, etc.)
- How will other domestic airline competitors like AS, UA, AA, WN, and B6 emerge and what changes will they make?
- What domestic competitors may merge or disappear?
- What international competitors may merge or disappear?
- How will DL's alliance partners emerge? KE? KL? VS?


I completely agree - and at this point, we don't know the answers to any of these questions. All we know now is there's been a massive downturn in demand, that Delta is correctly assuming that the demand won't magically go back to where it was, and that Delta will have to adjust its supply in order to make money again.
 
NickLAX
Posts: 265
Joined: Wed Jun 12, 2013 8:48 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:05 am

IWMBH wrote:
But, why wouldn't air traffic return to normal after the virus outbreak is over? In Europe most governments are pouring money into their economies to keep businesses 'alive' till they can reopen again after the crises. I'm sure the US economy will also get incentivises.


You are being way over optimistic. Layoffs are coming about in addition to furloughs. Companies will use this as a time to re-evaluate how they operate. An impact this big doesn't "FIX" overnight, anyone giving you that view is full of nonsense. This will take 24 months to recover MINIMUM, if it gets worse from here longer. WIthin 6 months things will trend to initial normalcy but a slower less demand business.

The risks to employment will be the biggest effect for airline recovery. Right now many companies are slashing to hold costs and hold cash.
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