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NameOmitted
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:29 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Why do you think this will take a year to sort out?

This won't really go away without large scale vaccination. Given the need for human testing first, even with the CDC forging animal testing we're looking at 18 months in the US. U don't know what the rules are for other counties, but i can't imagine any less than a year.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:41 pm

seahawk wrote:
That is a scenario no airline can survive without government help.


jfklganyc wrote:
For people who are saying that the companies don’t deserve a bail out, There’s no way to plan for something like this...For the reaction to something like this

You could have all the smoke detectors and fire extinguishers in the world but when a wall of fire approaches your house, they are worthless

There are a few companies poised to do well because they have what people need at this moment… Everybody else is in very bad shape across all industries


Airlines can sort out their problems through bankruptcy, and the industry will survive. Government bailouts should focus directly on small businesses and individuals, who will never receive the level of relief that big corporations will through the bankruptcy process.
 
Boof02671
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:44 pm

wnflyguy wrote:
I think DL will just use this situation to off load it's expensive older aircraft only and take advantage of industry opportunities when the time is right.
Out of the Big 3 AA and UA are in far worse financial shape in this economic situation from the pandemic. This going to cause more industry consolidation.
I wouldn't be surprised if DL took advantage of buying and eliminating B6 or AA.
Especially under a Trump administration if he is successful winning another term.
Flyguy

If they are leased only way to offload them is bankruptcy
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:53 pm

SkyVoice wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Cut all the focus cities and focus on core hubs. This would be a good time for DL to finish off closing up CVG.


Nah, baby, nah! Until the coronavirus crisis began, Delta was actually making money at CVG, something they didn't always do when CVG was a Delta / Comair hub. They were at 400 flights a day, but up to 80% of their passenger traffic was connecting. In 2019, most of their CVG traffic was O&D with very good loads, and there were still some connections being made. On top of that, there are a huge number of SkyMiles members that live in the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State metro area. So, I don't expect Delta to abandon all of that when it was working so well for them.


Before Coronavirus, a station making money wasn't that impressive, in addition they have hardly grown CVG at all in the past few years.

While I don't think DL would walk away from CVG completely, they have already cut CVG down to 55 departures/day during the week in April, which is telling
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
twinotter
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:58 pm

exFWAOONW wrote:
I’m not a fan of an industry-wide bailout. It punishes airlines like DL who have paid down debt to be better positioned for an event like this, by propping up competition that should have gone away. It rewards poor behavior . . .


Delta used Chapter 11 protection to transform their business into what it is now.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:09 pm

Becoming nimbler is the way to go. It often seemed airlines were over-investing, trying to out-do the other with no limit in sight. The Big Three mergers still had excess fat IMO. As airlines get on the green bandwagon it is this crowd that will be less impressed with all the bells and whistles; In fact, luxury goes against the minimalist minded attributes of such folk (at least in my mind). Terminal convenience and efficient security check-in riding the A.I. wave with environmental stewardship and on-going new health/cleaning initiatives all can flourish in such a transformed smaller, nimbler carrier. Delta's first-mover advantage for the past 10 years have now hit a wall. Perhaps prudent wielding of its investments in a new dawn post-corona will propel it to more sustainable horizons all for the workforce it claims to be its greatest asset.
 
AirFiero
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:28 pm

hpff wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I really don’t get why people (including the DL CEO) say this will cause a permanent 30% decline in air travel. Supposedly, DL was making money just a few weeks ago with that level of service. If the demand was there, why wouldn’t it rebound when the virus problems are over?


1) There are a large group of people who are now unemployed or underemployed who would have spent money on discretionary travel but now need to retrench and spend their savings on rent, not just in the US - Canada's unemployment applications were the highest they've ever been this week;
2) Every company and friend of mine, at least in my orbit, is now working from home, some of which has only happened in the past week, and the longer the virus stays an issue, the more used to teleconferencing and working from home each company will get, which may reduce corporate travel in the future;
3) Some vulnerable businesses/corporations will end up shuttering completely depending on how long the virus lasts, further reducing both the overall economy and potential business travel;
4) We don't know what the lasting political, legal, and business impacts of the virus will be at this point;
5) If the virus is a hurricane, we're not even into the eyewall yet.

Even if this ended tomorrow, there's a big chunk of the economy that has been impacted. It's not a matter of just turning the lights back on.


There is either demand for products and services or there isn’t. Demand won’t suddenly dry up 100%

Some habits and methods may change, but they said teleconferencing and the internet would kill business travel a long time ago. How’d that prediction work out?

Changes tend to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Mar 21, 2020 11:50 pm

AirFiero wrote:
There is either demand for products and services or there isn’t. Demand won’t suddenly dry up 100%

Some habits and methods may change, but they said teleconferencing and the internet would kill business travel a long time ago. How’d that prediction work out?

Changes tend to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary.


Sure, but that perspective is completely ignorant to what's going on. Our economy is driven by spending, and people aren't spending. Meanwhile, businesses still have bills to pay, and if there's no revenue coming in... ultimately, they'll either downsize or go out of business. Think of Las Vegas and Orlando. Sure, there's the 800 lb. gorillas that can weather the storm much better (e.g. Disney itself), but there's tens of thousands of small businesses who satellite around them that can't. They have no revenue coming in, but they have bills to pay. Eventually, they'll downsize until they run out of access to cash, then close their doors. Which means their employees are out of work. Which also means that accountants, lawyers, insurance companies, internet providers, phone providers, computer vendors, etc. now have less business. Which means they downsize and lay off employees. Which means less spending in our economy. It's a rippling effect. And yes, we'll recover, but it'll be long and painful.

The lion's share of the unemployed have been out of work for just two to three weeks, and already American Express, Capital One, etc. are reporting a record number of calls from individuals unable to make their monthly credit card payment. Yikes! I've always told people that the good news was that the Great Recession would be the most difficult period of our lives, but this is going to be bad.. really bad.
 
Aceskywalker
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:01 am

One can argue that LAX is already not a hub for DL or any airline, rather a focus city that feels like a hub because of the sheer size of Los Angeles and the large O&D demand. It is impossible for LAX to be to a carrier like SFO to UA, ATL to DL, DFW to AA, etc. Regardless, LAX is a place where DL should examine making cuts - European, Asia, and Australia flying can be easily handed off to JV partners.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:05 am

AirFiero wrote:
hpff wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
I really don’t get why people (including the DL CEO) say this will cause a permanent 30% decline in air travel. Supposedly, DL was making money just a few weeks ago with that level of service. If the demand was there, why wouldn’t it rebound when the virus problems are over?


1) There are a large group of people who are now unemployed or underemployed who would have spent money on discretionary travel but now need to retrench and spend their savings on rent, not just in the US - Canada's unemployment applications were the highest they've ever been this week;
2) Every company and friend of mine, at least in my orbit, is now working from home, some of which has only happened in the past week, and the longer the virus stays an issue, the more used to teleconferencing and working from home each company will get, which may reduce corporate travel in the future;
3) Some vulnerable businesses/corporations will end up shuttering completely depending on how long the virus lasts, further reducing both the overall economy and potential business travel;
4) We don't know what the lasting political, legal, and business impacts of the virus will be at this point;
5) If the virus is a hurricane, we're not even into the eyewall yet.

Even if this ended tomorrow, there's a big chunk of the economy that has been impacted. It's not a matter of just turning the lights back on.


There is either demand for products and services or there isn’t. Demand won’t suddenly dry up 100%

Some habits and methods may change, but they said teleconferencing and the internet would kill business travel a long time ago. How’d that prediction work out?

Changes tend to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary.

By definition, a black swan event is a sudden change.

FLL was a cruise heavy station. Cruises will be down for a while.

Conventions are already cancelled.

The junk bond market is on the edge.

The stock market won't recover in a day. Supply chains are mucked up.

I'm in 'stay at home California', and people are doing just as great a job staying home as Italy did two weeks ago. In other words, the snowball is rolling. We're 11 days behind Italy on the same exponential curve. This is a slow disease where what we do has an impact 14 days later.



9/11 was a step down. This one will have a longer pause impacting more of the supply chain.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
jc2354
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:30 am

From Flightaware.com, here are 9XXX Delta flight numbers for the past few days. https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KA ... ;sort=DESC
If not now, then when?
 
XT6Wagon
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:43 am

IWMBH wrote:
But, why wouldn't air traffic return to normal after the virus outbreak is over? In Europe most governments are pouring money into their economies to keep businesses 'alive' till they can reopen again after the crises. I'm sure the US economy will also get incentivises.


A big one will be many companies that hadn't any experience or equipment for video teleconference will now have it. Once they have it, they'll use it when possible instead of the expense to send someone for a face to face meeting. Same thing with families. Instead of seeing distant relatives once or twice a year, they can just video call more often and skip the actual trip.

It doesn't have to be everyone, just a few here and there and suddenly airlines have 10+% reduction in loads in an identical economy.
 
strfyr51
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:44 am

crj900lr wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
Delta has "Hubs at ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC. and now SEA. Other than ATL does anybody notice something wrong? Where ARE hubs along the southern tier or in the West? why not a Texas or Southwestern Hub? American Has PHX, in the Southwest Nobody really owns LAX as a hub So? Where would they spread their hubs TO?
Southwest went in big at Denver so they have a large hub in the gateway to the west. From there they hub OAK. So? Delta can diversify their hubs but to exactly where?




Didn't DL have DFW at one point along with AA? I believe they were 1 & 2 at DFW then DL up and left basically leaving DFW to AA. Can't remember why DL left though.

They told one of my buddies now at United they wanted a hub they could control and whether that's true or not? they now have hubs they control via Western or Northwest's efforts. they don't still have any other southern tiered hubs and they do not seem to be winning much at SEA as they can't push out Alaska nor force them out! So? Hell! They might as well be At SFO. or LAX. They couldn't fare any worse!
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:55 am

It makes sense to pull back to only hubs. Delta really has so much going on and it's impossible to know where demand will come back first. If they fly only to hubs they can shift easier. Cut or add flights easier. Even with a hub only model they will need slim schedules for a while to stop the cash burn.

I see well over A year before the average Joe wants to get on a plane. Hope that is wrong but we really need a vaccine before this is over but thats a long ways away. I don't really want to get on a plane too many things out of your control. I'd rather ride Amtrak and self isolate away from people and wipe down if I had to travel. On a plane if someone sneezes on you your SOL no real way to avoid short of a mask and eyewear
 
747megatop
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:31 am

IWMBH wrote:
But, why wouldn't air traffic return to normal after the virus outbreak is over? In Europe most governments are pouring money into their economies to keep businesses 'alive' till they can reopen again after the crises. I'm sure the US economy will also get incentivises.

US and Europe are different. If you noticed, for example Italy banned layoffs in this crisis.
US is survival of the fittest (rich, powerful, well connected, highly innovative entrepreuners etc.); it is merciless, greedy capitalism.

I am just pointing out the differences. Not saying what is right or wrong; not saying which is better; i don't want to get into that discussion. Even in one of the longest bull runs in history I have seen large layoffs in companies that were doing just fine and raking in billions..it is just a way of life..that is capitalism at work. It is scary to think what will happen in the next two years across all industries except of course Mr Bezos's Amazon. Only the fittest, smartest and those who can adapt (both businesses and individuals) can survive. That includes aviation. Who knows, Elon Musk may fast track some new efficient air transport mechanism that is cheaper, faster and more efficient that can adapt and scale efficiently to demand in a very agile and nimble way delivering point to point capacity? Who knows what 2 years from now will look like? Nobody knows.
 
Antoli0794
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:55 am

WN732 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Good question. 600+ Aircraft to be parked:

https://news.delta.com/ed-bastian-memo- ... our-future

I personally think SLC and MSP are a bit close for hubs. One or the other will be downsized, but I fully admit, I do not know which.

Complete aircraft deferals tells me DL negotiated well.

I expect many long/thin routes to be cut. The era of yours truly having a selection of TCON direct flights is probably over.

Lightsaber


Personally I'd pick SLC to stay as DTW can fill in the slack of MSP and SLC is better for the mountain West and everything West.



What slack of MSP? DTW and MSP have their roles as Midwest hubs respectfully. West of the Mississippi MSP has the coverage while east of the Mississippi DTW.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:11 am

SoEWR wrote:
Any update on DL or VS at EWR. VS just stopped flying EWR to LHR completely


Going to say that cut was around 75% because DL wanted it and not because it wasn’t profitable. That would kinda be similar to what they did with AF and VS #2 at EWR.
 
DDR
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:17 am

SESGDL wrote:
DDR wrote:
It's a given that ATL is safe. Anything else is up in the air. I do hope they retrench from SEA and keep to their other historic hubs.


Totally disagree. ATL, DTW, MSP, SLC and LGA/JFK are all safe. Why would DL abandon "captive" markets? Air travel will eventually rebound. Giving up markets would be lunacy. LAX, BOS and SEA could definitely be at risk, though.

Jeremy


Duh! Did you read my post? What exactly are you disagreeing with? LOL
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:18 am

Who knows, its so unreasonable to even speculate at this time. We don't even know where things will be in a week let alone a month.

This is completely unprecedented and its going to take a long, long time for our economy to recover.

Anyone in the service industry is essentially unemployed at this point in time. Any industry that is based on consumer spend is on hold, a lot of which is from spend from people employed by service industries. Many major industrials are shutdown. There is zero consumer condience, no one is spending money.

We have no idea how this is going to play out.

Massive unemployment across any industry sector later this year.

This is not pretty
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:26 am

Midwestindy wrote:
SkyVoice wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Cut all the focus cities and focus on core hubs. This would be a good time for DL to finish off closing up CVG.


Nah, baby, nah! Until the coronavirus crisis began, Delta was actually making money at CVG, something they didn't always do when CVG was a Delta / Comair hub. They were at 400 flights a day, but up to 80% of their passenger traffic was connecting. In 2019, most of their CVG traffic was O&D with very good loads, and there were still some connections being made. On top of that, there are a huge number of SkyMiles members that live in the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State metro area. So, I don't expect Delta to abandon all of that when it was working so well for them.


Before Coronavirus, a station making money wasn't that impressive, in addition they have hardly grown CVG at all in the past few years.

While I don't think DL would walk away from CVG completely, they have already cut CVG down to 55 departures/day during the week in April, which is telling


Why are you always criticizing CVG? All Delta stations have been dramatically cut for April if you haven't noticed.
 
Kno
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:27 am

Maybe I’ll be wrong but I assume once this is considered clear everyone will be ready to return to life as normal
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:31 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
SkyVoice wrote:

Nah, baby, nah! Until the coronavirus crisis began, Delta was actually making money at CVG, something they didn't always do when CVG was a Delta / Comair hub. They were at 400 flights a day, but up to 80% of their passenger traffic was connecting. In 2019, most of their CVG traffic was O&D with very good loads, and there were still some connections being made. On top of that, there are a huge number of SkyMiles members that live in the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State metro area. So, I don't expect Delta to abandon all of that when it was working so well for them.


Before Coronavirus, a station making money wasn't that impressive, in addition they have hardly grown CVG at all in the past few years.

While I don't think DL would walk away from CVG completely, they have already cut CVG down to 55 departures/day during the week in April, which is telling


Why are you always criticizing CVG? All Delta stations have been dramatically cut for April if you haven't noticed.


Always?

And I actually have been keeping track of all DL stations, and RDU/CVG have seen the most routes cut domestically, even compared to MSP/ATL/DTW/etc for April
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
johns624
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:37 am

Bradlee102896 wrote:
I feel like out of the actual “hubs” DTW could end up being the odd one left out of all this when it’s all said and done.

What many seem to be ignoring who are predicting the imminent demise of DTW as a Delta hub is the airport itself. It has a great terminal, plenty of room for growth and no competition. Look how many people rate DTW as the best connecting airport.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:48 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
.
Anyone in the service industry is essentially unemployed at this point in time. Any industry that is based on consumer spend is on hold, a lot of which is from spend from people employed by service industries. Many major industrials are shutdown. There is zero consumer condience, no one is spending money.


To expand and use 9/11 as sn analogy.
During 9/11 the service and manufacturing industries didn't stop in the USA. For most countries, it was a US impact that mostly impacted flights to/from/within USA.

Now the whole supply chain is shutting down.
Now, as noted, effectively most of the service industry is unemployed:
1. Entertainment. This is a big one. Really, the one winner is Netflix.
2. Service side of restaurants
More and more restaurants are finding takeout only isn't viable (no pricey soda or booze sales).
Bars must be ugly.
3. Pretty much all small business shut.
4. Gyms (pretty busy post 9/11).
5. Any business geared toward dating is hurting.
6. Jewelry must be down.

What is the status of pawn shops?

I've never seen such a broad portion of the economy unemployed. This is far deeper than 9/11.

Compounded with a 2008/2009 bond market where they combined high risk debt into traunches to enable sales. Then, sub-prime mortgage. Now, junk bonds. History doesn't repeat, but it rymes.

So in effect, DL will emerge into a debt crisus a la 2009 and 9/11 combined. Not planning a downsizing would be silly.

Lightsaber
Flu+Covid19 is bad. Consider a flu vaccine, if not for yourself, to protect someone you care about.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:58 am

Yep....and that impact all of retail, automotive, and anything tourism/hospitality related.

Descrespiary spend for travel is shot for the rest of the year if not next. No trips to MCO or LAS or the middle class family....
Major impacts to business spend as a reign-in on any non-operations critical travel.
Major professional services firms, consultancies, and tech firms to be hit with delayed/cancelled/deffered projects.

This sucks for all of us.

50/50 shot I'm laid-off later this year if all of my business vaporizes.
Granted we live well within our means and I don't need to work for a long time, but there is a good shot I'm unemployed in 3-6 months depending on how things shake out
I will still travel for family/leisure travel.

Last year spent close to $25k on DL for domestic travel. I had $2K in Jan-Feb this year, I'll be lucky to get on a flight before July at this rate.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:13 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Sure, but that perspective is completely ignorant to what's going on. Our economy is driven by spending, and people aren't spending. Meanwhile, businesses still have bills to pay, and if there's no revenue coming in... ultimately, they'll either downsize or go out of business. Think of Las Vegas and Orlando. Sure, there's the 800 lb. gorillas that can weather the storm much better (e.g. Disney itself), but there's tens of thousands of small businesses who satellite around them that can't. They have no revenue coming in, but they have bills to pay. Eventually, they'll downsize until they run out of access to cash, then close their doors. Which means their employees are out of work. Which also means that accountants, lawyers, insurance companies, internet providers, phone providers, computer vendors, etc. now have less business. Which means they downsize and lay off employees. Which means less spending in our economy. It's a rippling effect. And yes, we'll recover, but it'll be long and painful.

The lion's share of the unemployed have been out of work for just two to three weeks, and already American Express, Capital One, etc. are reporting a record number of calls from individuals unable to make their monthly credit card payment. Yikes! I've always told people that the good news was that the Great Recession would be the most difficult period of our lives, but this is going to be bad.. really bad.


My family thinks tha I’m ‘Chicken Little’ but you’re exactly right. I’ve been in the airline biz for 40 years and through furloughs and a bad economy before but this is completely different. The economy of the world is in a state of crisis. Banks could fail, the distribution system of food could collapse, those that pick our fruit and vegetables get sick (or work until they drop)...the health care system collapses. We could be weeks or months away from the end of life as we know it. It scares the crap out of me.
 
DeltaPSCFlyer
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:25 am

Aceskywalker wrote:
One can argue that LAX is already not a hub for DL or any airline, rather a focus city that feels like a hub because of the sheer size of Los Angeles and the large O&D demand. It is impossible for LAX to be to a carrier like SFO to UA, ATL to DL, DFW to AA, etc. Regardless, LAX is a place where DL should examine making cuts - European, Asia, and Australia flying can be easily handed off to JV partners.


You're making the assumption here that DL's JV partners will recover much faster than DL and can pick up European, Asian, and Australia flying. Truth is, we don't know yet what the impact will be on KL, AF, KE, VS, and other partners. There's another thread dedicated just to the risk of KE shutting down. As I mentioned earlier in this discussion, the path forward for DL on the international front will depend on the industry landscape in the aftermath.
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:27 am

To beef up its cash position during the crisis, Delta has entered into a $2.6 billion secured credit facility and was drawing down $3 billion under its existing credit facilities.

"We are currently burning roughly $50 million in cash each day," Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian said in a memo to employees. (https://bit.ly/3a67eLS)


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/delta-ai ... 24113.html

So Delta was able to secure 5.6 billion USD in loans on top of its existing liquidity of 3 billions cash + investments.
This puts them in a solid position to weather this if they stop operations ASAP and can move employees on to temporary welfare programs.
However, as long as they keep operating, they'll be bleeding through the cash.

So now the US government needs to move ASAP to cover employees so that DL can be shut down and conserve this cash, no bailout will be needed.
I also hope that goverments will be smart and use airlines to combat the crisis in any capacity possible, providing charter revenue to airlines.
 
ShinyAndChrome
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:44 am

Waterbomber2 wrote:
To beef up its cash position during the crisis, Delta has entered into a $2.6 billion secured credit facility and was drawing down $3 billion under its existing credit facilities.

"We are currently burning roughly $50 million in cash each day," Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian said in a memo to employees. (https://bit.ly/3a67eLS)


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/delta-ai ... 24113.html

So Delta was able to secure 5.6 billion USD in loans on top of its existing liquidity of 3 billions cash + investments.
This puts them in a solid position to weather this if they stop operations ASAP and can move employees on to temporary welfare programs.
However, as long as they keep operating, they'll be bleeding through the cash.

So now the US government needs to move ASAP to cover employees so that DL can be shut down and conserve this cash, no bailout will be needed.
I also hope that goverments will be smart and use airlines to combat the crisis in any capacity possible, providing charter revenue to airlines.


For that purpose, the payroll subsidies AFA leadership has mentioned would work well in terms of maintaining payroll. Whether it comes through federal unemployment programs or the aforementioned payroll subsidy, it ultimately comes from the same place right?

And with all the cargo, charter, and military capacity still out there, I don't know if air distribution is really a bottleneck in this situation. If there was some unmet cargo need the passenger airlines could fill, they'd have already been talking about it as a way to bring in cash. And the government would've brought it up in all this discussion about bailouts.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4985
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:51 am

747megatop wrote:
IWMBH wrote:
But, why wouldn't air traffic return to normal after the virus outbreak is over? In Europe most governments are pouring money into their economies to keep businesses 'alive' till they can reopen again after the crises. I'm sure the US economy will also get incentivises.

US and Europe are different. If you noticed, for example Italy banned layoffs in this crisis.
US is survival of the fittest (rich, powerful, well connected, highly innovative entrepreuners etc.); it is merciless, greedy capitalism.

I am just pointing out the differences. Not saying what is right or wrong; not saying which is better; i don't want to get into that discussion. Even in one of the longest bull runs in history I have seen large layoffs in companies that were doing just fine and raking in billions..it is just a way of life..that is capitalism at work. It is scary to think what will happen in the next two years across all industries except of course Mr Bezos's Amazon. Only the fittest, smartest and those who can adapt (both businesses and individuals) can survive. That includes aviation. Who knows, Elon Musk may fast track some new efficient air transport mechanism that is cheaper, faster and more efficient that can adapt and scale efficiently to demand in a very agile and nimble way delivering point to point capacity? Who knows what 2 years from now will look like? Nobody knows.

you're reading too much George Orwell.
 
SkyVoice
Posts: 400
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:34 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:58 am

Can we all pause & take a deep breath here for just a minute? Thank you!

First, far from criticizing CVG, I actually think that Midwestindy had a good point to make about my post . . .

Midwestindy wrote:
SkyVoice wrote:
BNAMealer wrote:
Cut all the focus cities and focus on core hubs. This would be a good time for DL to finish off closing up CVG.


Nah, baby, nah! Until the coronavirus crisis began, Delta was actually making money at CVG, something they didn't always do when CVG was a Delta / Comair hub. They were at 400 flights a day, but up to 80% of their passenger traffic was connecting. In 2019, most of their CVG traffic was O&D with very good loads, and there were still some connections being made. On top of that, there are a huge number of SkyMiles members that live in the Greater Cincinnati Tri-State metro area. So, I don't expect Delta to abandon all of that when it was working so well for them.


Before Coronavirus, a station making money wasn't that impressive, in addition they have hardly grown CVG at all in the past few years.

While I don't think DL would walk away from CVG completely, they have already cut CVG down to 55 departures/day during the week in April, which is telling


Now, hiflyeras, I deeply respect your 40 years in aviation, so I must pay attention to what you said . . .

hiflyeras wrote:
My family thinks that I’m ‘Chicken Little’ but you’re exactly right. I’ve been in the airline biz for 40 years and through furloughs and a bad economy before but this is completely different. The economy of the world is in a state of crisis. Banks could fail, the distribution system of food could collapse, those that pick our fruit and vegetables get sick (or work until they drop)...the health care system collapses. We could be weeks or months away from the end of life as we know it. It scares the crap out of me.


My father passed away in 1997, just shy of his 89th birthday. Dad told me many stories about living through the Great Depression. He talked about how families were uprooted, many moving to California & other places in the western USA to find work. People held onto many things as long as they could, if they thought there was any chance that they could be used again. People learned how to garden, to grow their own food. They canned their own food so they would have that food to eat through the winter. They wore their threadbare clothes until they practically fell off of their bodies, and wore their old shoes even though they had holes in them. Dad told me about the "alphabet soup" of President Roosevelt's New Deal, like the CCC, the WPA, and since Dad was from Tennessee, the program that affected him & his family the most, the TVA. The building of Hoover Dam happened during that time, too.

Dad was always great at putting things in perspective. I guess that's what I'm trying to do now. Yes, it scares me, too, but one thing I know is that a crisis does not build individual & collective character, it reveals it. I just don't think that all Americans--and all citizens of planet Earth--are, deep down, as bad as those who anonymously flame each other on social media. Sure, the chips are down & they have further to fall, but picking them up & leading us on is now the challenge for the current generation, just as the Great Depression & World War II were the challenges of my Dad's generation. Many of those who will lead us are in aviation, just like it was back in the day, people like Eddie Rickenbacker, Howard Hughes & Juan Trippe. Let's have some faith & let's resolve to help ourselves & each other during the many days ahead.

Be safe, stay healthy & keep looking toward the sky! -SkyVoice
"Facing a crisis does not not build one's character, it reveals it."

"Tough times don't last. Tough people do."

- Robert H. Schuller
 
Lootess
Posts: 454
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:57 am

Corporate customers will flock back to Delta in SEA (Amazon, Microsoft) and CVG (P&G) rather quickly once things rebound. Although P&G is important right now since they re-started up another Charmin plant in Georgia. Hot stuff right now I hear.
 
wedgetail737
Posts: 5249
Joined: Mon Aug 04, 2003 8:44 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:55 am

Lootess wrote:
Corporate customers will flock back to Delta in SEA (Amazon, Microsoft) and CVG (P&G) rather quickly once things rebound. Although P&G is important right now since they re-started up another Charmin plant in Georgia. Hot stuff right now I hear.


That's only if DL comes back to SEA as a hub.
 
questions
Posts: 2337
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:04 am

hiflyeras wrote:
My family thinks tha I’m ‘Chicken Little’ but you’re exactly right. I’ve been in the airline biz for 40 years and through furloughs and a bad economy before but this is completely different. The economy of the world is in a state of crisis. Banks could fail, the distribution system of food could collapse, those that pick our fruit and vegetables get sick (or work until they drop)...the health care system collapses. We could be weeks or months away from the end of life as we know it. It scares the crap out of me.


It should be scaring the crap out of a lot of people.

This in not going away in mid April. COVID-19 will be around through multiple waves for at least 18 months. Sheltering in place and social distancing will remain a part of our lives and impact everything we do. A number of industry sectors will be forever impacted by this; several will be impacted for several years; and some less so. Unemployment is going to sky rocket. There will be a lot of pain for the next 4-5 years. The world will be a different place. This will be the last nail in the coffin for struggling retailers who’ve been unable to figure out an Omni channel strategy. Those 125 stores Macy’s had previously announced were closing? They will be joined by hundreds more. The airlines are no different. Some will go under, merger and others will thrive. Over the next 4-5 years, employers, trying to maintain sound financial footing will cut back on travel expenses. Employees and companies who have not already done do will have to embrace and adapt virtual working environments. This will have a significant impact on air travel demand.

2020 and subsequent years will over take 1929 and the subsequent 1930’s as the most significant economically defining moment in modern times.

Global pandemic + global financial crisis will significantly change the landscape of global commercial aviation.
 
questions
Posts: 2337
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:06 am

No one had mentioned SYD. I would not be surprised if SYD gets nixed and VA goes away.
 
questions
Posts: 2337
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:08 am

A lot of folks have mentioned MSP and DTW.

If one goes away, or is reduced to a focus city, could the other plus SLC absorbed its capacity?
 
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seahawk
Posts: 9645
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 1:29 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:10 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
seahawk wrote:
That is a scenario no airline can survive without government help.


jfklganyc wrote:
For people who are saying that the companies don’t deserve a bail out, There’s no way to plan for something like this...For the reaction to something like this

You could have all the smoke detectors and fire extinguishers in the world but when a wall of fire approaches your house, they are worthless

There are a few companies poised to do well because they have what people need at this moment… Everybody else is in very bad shape across all industries


Airlines can sort out their problems through bankruptcy, and the industry will survive. Government bailouts should focus directly on small businesses and individuals, who will never receive the level of relief that big corporations will through the bankruptcy process.


This worked for a 9/11 event which hurt certain parts of the economy badly, but many others just kept on going. This time it hurts the whole economy and small business still need customers, so once large cooperations start to lay off people and down size, small business will also see less demand.
 
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Antaras
Posts: 824
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:15 am

Somehow I think that the mentioned smaller carrier would be some Skyteam members in the East Asia region?
1. Korean Air (most likely as this carrier is "going to die" :tombstone: )
2. China Eastern (unlikely, for no reason)
3. China Airlines
4. Vietnam Airlines (as VN was rumoured as it wants some more big carriers from Skyteam to take a piece of VN, just like ANA now)
5. Garuda Indonesia
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AirFiero
Posts: 1548
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:17 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
There is either demand for products and services or there isn’t. Demand won’t suddenly dry up 100%

Some habits and methods may change, but they said teleconferencing and the internet would kill business travel a long time ago. How’d that prediction work out?

Changes tend to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary.


Sure, but that perspective is completely ignorant to what's going on. Our economy is driven by spending, and people aren't spending. Meanwhile, businesses still have bills to pay, and if there's no revenue coming in... ultimately, they'll either downsize or go out of business. Think of Las Vegas and Orlando. Sure, there's the 800 lb. gorillas that can weather the storm much better (e.g. Disney itself), but there's tens of thousands of small businesses who satellite around them that can't. They have no revenue coming in, but they have bills to pay. Eventually, they'll downsize until they run out of access to cash, then close their doors. Which means their employees are out of work. Which also means that accountants, lawyers, insurance companies, internet providers, phone providers, computer vendors, etc. now have less business. Which means they downsize and lay off employees. Which means less spending in our economy. It's a rippling effect. And yes, we'll recover, but it'll be long and painful.

The lion's share of the unemployed have been out of work for just two to three weeks, and already American Express, Capital One, etc. are reporting a record number of calls from individuals unable to make their monthly credit card payment. Yikes! I've always told people that the good news was that the Great Recession would be the most difficult period of our lives, but this is going to be bad.. really bad.


Ignorant of what’s going on? Excuse me?? First of all, I live in California an am living under a lockdown order. My grocery store shelves are empty. I am fully aware of what is going on. My comments were about what will happen AFTER this situation, and yes, it will come to an end.

Yes, people can’t pay their bills and some businesses won’t survive. But do you think people who can’t pay their bills will be rounded up and put in prison? New businesses won’t emerge to take up the demands that will be there AFTER this is over?

I understand that things look very bleak right now, but this situation WILL END. 8 billion people will still need to work, eat, buy s*** and want to travel. THATS my point.
 
AirFiero
Posts: 1548
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:43 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:23 pm

lightsaber wrote:
AirFiero wrote:
hpff wrote:

1) There are a large group of people who are now unemployed or underemployed who would have spent money on discretionary travel but now need to retrench and spend their savings on rent, not just in the US - Canada's unemployment applications were the highest they've ever been this week;
2) Every company and friend of mine, at least in my orbit, is now working from home, some of which has only happened in the past week, and the longer the virus stays an issue, the more used to teleconferencing and working from home each company will get, which may reduce corporate travel in the future;
3) Some vulnerable businesses/corporations will end up shuttering completely depending on how long the virus lasts, further reducing both the overall economy and potential business travel;
4) We don't know what the lasting political, legal, and business impacts of the virus will be at this point;
5) If the virus is a hurricane, we're not even into the eyewall yet.

Even if this ended tomorrow, there's a big chunk of the economy that has been impacted. It's not a matter of just turning the lights back on.


There is either demand for products and services or there isn’t. Demand won’t suddenly dry up 100%

Some habits and methods may change, but they said teleconferencing and the internet would kill business travel a long time ago. How’d that prediction work out?

Changes tend to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary.

By definition, a black swan event is a sudden change.

FLL was a cruise heavy station. Cruises will be down for a while.

Conventions are already cancelled.

The junk bond market is on the edge.

The stock market won't recover in a day. Supply chains are mucked up.

I'm in 'stay at home California', and people are doing just as great a job staying home as Italy did two weeks ago. In other words, the snowball is rolling. We're 11 days behind Italy on the same exponential curve. This is a slow disease where what we do has an impact 14 days later.



9/11 was a step down. This one will have a longer pause impacting more of the supply chain.

Lightsaber


Speaking of the supply chain, here is an excellent article describing what is happening and how we can adjust. Many restaurants are open for takeout service. If you are short on food at home...go get food there for now. They have supplies!

Specific Retail Food Shortages Will Not Soon Improve, But the Overall Food Supply Chain is Very Strong…
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/20 ... ry-strong/
 
N766UA
Posts: 8335
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:30 pm

TTailedTiger wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
Could MSP, BOS, JFK/LGA, & SLC not theoretically do everything that DTW does today...?


Yes. I never could figure out having two hubs (MSP and DTW) so close together. No other airline does that.


What are you talking about? DTW-MSP is 530 miles.

United has LAX and SFO (337mi) and IAD and EWR (212mi). AA has CLT and DCA (330mi)... and PHL (450mi). SWA has LAX and OAK (340 mi), DAL and STL (546mi). B6 has JFK and BOS. Alaska has PDX and SEA, LAX and SFO... the list goes on.

Literally EVERY other airline does that.
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:55 pm

N766UA wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
Could MSP, BOS, JFK/LGA, & SLC not theoretically do everything that DTW does today...?


Yes. I never could figure out having two hubs (MSP and DTW) so close together. No other airline does that.


What are you talking about? DTW-MSP is 530 miles.

United has LAX and SFO (337mi) and IAD and EWR (212mi). AA has CLT and DCA (330mi)... and PHL (450mi). SWA has LAX and OAK (340 mi), DAL and STL (546mi). B6 has JFK and BOS. Alaska has PDX and SEA, LAX and SFO... the list goes on.

Literally EVERY other airline does that.


With MSP and DTW always being cited as too close to each other, I suspect people just consider the Midwest to be interchangeable.
 
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DocLightning
Posts: 21841
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:05 pm

AirFiero wrote:
Wow. I se it as the exact opposite. A short term scare/panic over a virus that isn’t Ebola or the thing that turns people into zombies like the Walking Dead. Air travel demand was strong and growing until a few weeks ago. Now the world is coming to an end? Jesus, people, has humanity become that cynical?


This ain't no Ebola. Ebola couldn't travel far because it made 100% of people who contracted it very ill and ~60-80% dead. It was easy to isolate and quarantine these people.

This virus is milder. Likely over 90% of people who contract it will have minimal to no symptoms. But for about 10% of them, they will get sick and for a significant portion, they will need hospital care. It takes a median five days for symptoms to show and it can spread by droplets or contact. That's why it's so successful and that's why it's so frightening. It seems to have found a perfect sweet spot between "too bad" and "not bad enough" to really cause a crisis.

This will take several months to resolve completely and until there is a vaccine or a rapidly-effective and plentiful antiviral (I had high hopes for hydroxychloroquine but it doesn't seem to be the silver bullet) things will not go back to normal.

As we saw from the -MAX storage issue, airplanes aren't meant to just sit idle. When this is over, the economy will have been deeply wounded and while we get back to business, we will see that this experience profoundly changed the world.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
HVNandrew
Posts: 550
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2006 1:05 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:13 pm

Based on the OAG thread this week, it appears a lot of DL's cuts so far are mostly in 1x frequency reductions. Because a lot of the RDU and CVG markets are only 1x daily, a lot of those markets have lost service for April. Some 2x markets out of RDU were also cut completely. I do feel that the RDU experiment is at risk in a downsized DL.

One exception to the above - the Shuttle. LGA-BOS/ORD/DCA were cut dramatically. I realize that is because business travel has evaporated, but going forward I really question the viability of Shuttle-type service for DL (or any US carrier). If DL is looking to shrink, I think that service might be at the top of the list.
 
reltney
Posts: 634
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2004 1:34 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:45 pm

The numbers we are hearing are ... currently 14500 pilots will reduce to 12000. Mostly thru retirements and possibly early retirement packages. These are the numbers we are hearing thru the pilot lounges these last few days...

88/90s gone, older 320s and a few 767s retiring. This changes daily so no one really knows until it’s done/announced publicly .

Stay healthy my friends..
Knives don't kill people. People with knives kill people.
OUTLAW KNIVES.

I am a pilot, therefore I envy no one...
 
N766UA
Posts: 8335
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:08 pm

ShinyAndChrome wrote:

With MSP and DTW always being cited as too close to each other, I suspect people just consider the Midwest to be interchangeable.


I remember when I first moved to the northeast and I'd tell people I was from Ohio they'd say "oh cool, I have family in Minnesota!" They were shocked when I'd explain that Ohio is actually closer to Massachusetts than it is to Minnesota.
 
twaconnie
Posts: 269
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 3:18 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:18 pm

No one knows the future, but it's sure fun to speculate,
 
lavalampluva
Posts: 1433
Joined: Tue Jun 24, 2014 7:33 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:27 pm

I can’t say for sure. But I don’t think any hubs are going to be eliminated. But if there are any struggling routes, those will be cut.
Remind me to send a thank you note to Mr. Boeing.
 
TTailedTiger
Posts: 2524
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:19 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:19 pm

N766UA wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
flyboy80 wrote:
Could MSP, BOS, JFK/LGA, & SLC not theoretically do everything that DTW does today...?


Yes. I never could figure out having two hubs (MSP and DTW) so close together. No other airline does that.


What are you talking about? DTW-MSP is 530 miles.

United has LAX and SFO (337mi) and IAD and EWR (212mi). AA has CLT and DCA (330mi)... and PHL (450mi). SWA has LAX and OAK (340 mi), DAL and STL (546mi). B6 has JFK and BOS. Alaska has PDX and SEA, LAX and SFO... the list goes on.

Literally EVERY other airline does that.


LAX is focus city size for UA. And US Airwyas ended up with CLT and DCA as a result of a huge mix of mergers. Northwest created DTW and MSP on purpose.
 
Aither
Posts: 1292
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:40 pm

If you don't capture the demand others will. Making competition bigger never helps the bottom line.
Never trust the obvious

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