DocLightning wrote:AirFiero wrote:Wow. I se it as the exact opposite. A short term scare/panic over a virus that isn’t Ebola or the thing that turns people into zombies like the Walking Dead. Air travel demand was strong and growing until a few weeks ago. Now the world is coming to an end? Jesus, people, has humanity become that cynical?
This ain't no Ebola. Ebola couldn't travel far because it made 100% of people who contracted it very ill and ~60-80% dead. It was easy to isolate and quarantine these people.
This virus is milder. Likely over 90% of people who contract it will have minimal to no symptoms. But for about 10% of them, they will get sick and for a significant portion, they will need hospital care. It takes a median five days for symptoms to show and it can spread by droplets or contact. That's why it's so successful and that's why it's so frightening. It seems to have found a perfect sweet spot between "too bad" and "not bad enough" to really cause a crisis.
This will take several months to resolve completely and until there is a vaccine or a rapidly-effective and plentiful antiviral (I had high hopes for hydroxychloroquine but it doesn't seem to be the silver bullet) things will not go back to normal.
As we saw from the -MAX storage issue, airplanes aren't meant to just sit idle. When this is over, the economy will have been deeply wounded and while we get back to business, we will see that this experience profoundly changed the world.
Points well taken. I wish we would have more clarity on the endgame. We were told to delay the curve, checkmark. We did that. But the curve will happen. A fair consensus seems to be building that everyone will be exposed in 2020, only a matter of how to mitigate the big wave.
I have a little conjecture like what you said, 90%+ of cases may be unknown, which we will know exactly when random testing begins out in the wild. Italy is seeing heavy losses perhaps because it may be nearing total population infection. 7000 deaths could mean 7+ million infected. If so, quarantine is useful for the first wave, but after that, we cannot contain it and these containment measures will serve no purpose. We will know the endgame when random testing is performed.
EDIT: What does this have to do with DL, well it might mean in a few months there will be no reason to curtail travel, because everybody will have been exposed to COVID by then. This is an "everybody's exposed / but it's not as dangerous as we thought on average" scenario.