I am curious what traffic returns first. I think the general consensus is that business travel will be back first, but I'm not totally certain. People will be ready to get out after doing essentially nothing for months. Obviously they need the financial means to do so, and the economic situation could well be trash, but it's yet to be seen how bad the outcome will be.
I know business travel came back last time, but more and more businesses are opening to the idea of e-conferencing and eliminating some of the non-essential business travel (My employer included.) The quality and variety of options out there for e-conferencing is light years better than it was in 2001 and 2010.
The death of overnight business travel has been predicted for over 20 years, and while the nature of business travel has evolved, it's as strong as ever. And it's not because of technology.
* A large chunk of business travel could never be replaced - for example, persons within the financial industry who have a specific need to visit a specific workplace or worksite. This is often required for compliance / oversight reasons. Auditors almost have to visit worksites. And many companies do not make sensitive information available beyond their internal, localized intranet.
* Within companies, it humanizes employees and enables them to build relationships that wouldn't otherwise exist electronically. Between companies, it creates networking and marketing opportunities that are essential to a business growing its reach and revenues.
* It's often an employee perk. Why do you think, over the past 20 years especially, the business/convention market has moved from its traditional home in places like Chicago to Orlando and Las Vegas?
* Old school, conservative companies still prefer face-to-face.
Most households will be hurting, and many households that weren't financially impacted (and even benefited) from this will curtail their spending. I see lots of predictions that people will flock to Disney World in doves, but if you seriously believe that, in the midst of an economic crash, people are going to pop open their wallets for a $6,000 or $7,000 one-week vacation... you belong in Fantasyland
. Financial companies are already citing a record number of calls from people who can't even meet their monthly credit card payment... and they haven't even been off of work for a month. Sure, there's going to be a number of people who will take advantage of heavy discounts and travel, but there's going to be a lot less capacity into traditional vacation markets.
The other thing to remember, is that this is the first time "Peak Millennials" and Generation Z (in other words, people under 30) have been impacted by a recession. Many have been enjoying the fruits of spending their adulthood in a thriving economy, and overspend. Older Millennials (people in their 30s) experienced multiple recessions and tend to be significantly more conservative with their spending. Despite having significantly higher discretionary incomes, they save larger portions of their income, they're less likely to spend on luxuries, including places like Whole Foods, etc. It's quite possible that people in their 20s will get hammered, and tightened their wallets up going forward.