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Phosphorus
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:13 pm

NWAROOSTER wrote:
... Maybe the flight attendants now wish they voted in a union. ...

For those, who do not know exact intricacies of US labour law: if they start now, how long would it take, if some labour groups wish to organize a union in the US? As a matter of principle, is there a chance for them "making it" before September 30, and demanding layoffs to go through a union-agreed process?
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:15 pm

B757Forever--

I agree. I also don't see anyone here saying RIF's won't go in inverse seniority order?
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:18 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
NWAROOSTER wrote:
... Maybe the flight attendants now wish they voted in a union. ...

For those, who do not know exact intricacies of US labour law: if they start now, how long would it take, if some labour groups wish to organize a union in the US? As a matter of principle, is there a chance for them "making it" before September 30, and demanding layoffs to go through a union-agreed process?


To secure the benefits of representation, the FA's would need to the following before 9/30:

1. Get signed A-cards from 50%+1 of the flight attendant group.
2. Petition the NMB for a vote
3. Win that vote
4. Come to a tentative agreement with the company on a collective bargaining agreement
5. Vote on said agreement
6. Ratify said agreement.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
Dalmd88
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:50 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
winginit wrote:
nwadeicer wrote:
So, word around the water cooler this week. If you've got 15 years or less of seniority as of 10-01-2020 you will enjoy the benefits of unemployment. Delta is looking at shaving 50% of its below and upper wing employees as well as outsourcing those cities with mainline employees on one level and outsourced employees on the other (mainline above wing, DGS below, etc). If true, fun times ahead for all!


Complete nonsense given, unlike American and United, we haven't even seen Delta roll out retirement packages yet. I suspect that will be quite aggressive, and they're no doubt learning from the contrasts between the programs of their competitors where American is offering payouts and United isn't.

To unilaterally chop your newer, cheaper employees would be foolish. At the very least the first thing you do is incentivize the old timers to retire, and they may well be inclined to do so given the days of generous annual pay increases and profit sharing are over for the foreseeable future.


Buyouts require immediate cash outlays, while lowering future projected costs.
Furloughs require no immediate cash outlays, while increasing future projected unit costs.

If the situation requires a cash conservation mode, they may choose option 2. Sometimes, people burn furniture, if that's what it takes to stay warm.


The last round of furloughs did cost money. I think it was one weeks pay for every year of service on exit.

The retirement package vs furlough isn't a either or argument anyways. Both will likely happen. You need to get down to X amount of employees at a given location.

Retirements cut loose the highest payed employees. Many of which are getting close to retiring anyways. A medical package plus the outlook of zero raises or profit share for the future makes it more enticing to go now. Furloughs are used to reach the X number for every location.

This also refutes the rumor that everyone below a given date is gone. Way too early for that calculation plus it will be different for each station and work group. Right now management is having a tough time developing a flight rotation for next month. What we will be flying in October is a complete unknown at this point. There is no way to project staffing requirements with out a flight schedule. Outsourcing below wing sounds enticing. I doubt we will see a huge increase in below wing outsourcing. The quality control is an issue.
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:26 pm

I doubt we will see a huge increase in below wing outsourcing. The quality control is an issue.

I don't think we will either. Maybe some, but retirements/buyouts (and extending voluntary leaves) should mitigate a lot of that.

They've also already crafted a narrative of "all of us being in this together." That's the rationale behind our hour reductions and more. To then take a buzzsaw to line stations would mean having to spend years rebuilding morale/resolve. I just don't think they want to do that? besides the iniatives you mentioned above, they can further aggressively manage costs through attrition, cross-utilization, etc.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
nwadeicer
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:28 pm

Sorry if that post came across as what I personally think. It's just what has been going around the airport. It's the same kind of rumor that was spread a couple years ago regarding the 10,000 per year of service early outs/retirement which never happened. There will be a reduction of staffing come October, that is a guarantee. There is no way Delta will pay people to "sit around" as most employees will be or have returned from their PLOC but the flight schedule has not moved back to pre Covid days.
The one I am most interested in is the early out packages that might come. Again, give us a reason (money, benefits) to want to leave early and i'll be on Millie Lacs Lake catching Walleye and Pike the next morning.
I miss the Red Tail
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:35 pm

...Meet me at the boat ramp. I'll bring food. :)

Seriously though, I know you were just relaying the word on the street.

No doubt there will be less people come 10/1- the C-Suite has already told us all that. The question is how many leave on their own terms, and how many get forced out.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
nwadeicer
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:50 pm

Fish on!
I've got some friends who are in ATL and they all say the doom and gloom is almost unbearable. They also said that it's hard not to feel that way when the ramp is a ghost town, all the transfer tugs are parked and they have literally boarded up access to the terminals they are not using, not sure which ones.
I miss the Red Tail
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:53 pm

I can relate. Setting up our bagroom now really just means backing a tug up to the belt, and dropping the rack.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
bkflyguy
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:41 pm

NWAROOSTER wrote:
QUOTING FLYMCO753.. The DTW & MSP argument still persists but it's based on emotion rather than a factual context. As more Republic employees and older Northwest employees begin to retire, the feelings between them both will decrease. It's hard to completely get rid of it because those who have generations of family at the airport could carry it over.


As I understand it, much of the animosity between the Republic and NWA groups came from how the pilot groups were integrated. NW at the time of the merger, was a mostly wide-body airline whereas Republic was mostly narrowbody. Republic also had more pilots and they were more senior. While NW pilots wanted Republic pilots to be stapled to the bottom of the seniority list, and for fences around certain wide-body flying, the arbitrator disagreed. As a result, the seniority lists were integrated based on the date of hire (although I think there were some fences for a few years, they eventually expired). This led to some NW pilots being displaced from wide-body flying once Republic pilots were able to bid and hold that line. The result - much animosity. NW also had a much different management culture (some would say ruthless) which clashed with Republic's. And most of Republic's procedures were tossed out and everyone adopted NW's procedures (not a take the best from each approach).
 
Lootess
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:06 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Will this situation affect the strategy DL has for using A220s?

Its the only fleet type not having any aircraft put into storage. It will probably be the only fleet type that will have near pre-downturn levels of utilization when things start to recover.

Obviously the delivery schedule will be impacted, however the revised delivery schedule will ultimately be tied to how DL and Airbus negotiate the total package of future deliveries A220, A321CEO, A321NEO, A339, A359


Some A220s are parked now, but the least of all types. Delta needs the aircraft anyway since the MDs will not survive the pandemic, and once things roll around they will be good backfill.
 
jfern022
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:26 am

nwadeicer wrote:
Sorry if that post came across as what I personally think. It's just what has been going around the airport. It's the same kind of rumor that was spread a couple years ago regarding the 10,000 per year of service early outs/retirement which never happened. There will be a reduction of staffing come October, that is a guarantee. There is no way Delta will pay people to "sit around" as most employees will be or have returned from their PLOC but the flight schedule has not moved back to pre Covid days.
The one I am most interested in is the early out packages that might come. Again, give us a reason (money, benefits) to want to leave early and i'll be on Millie Lacs Lake catching Walleye and Pike the next morning.


It’s like I said earlier, for most no medical means no package. Too much uncertainty. The last 2 packages came and went with no medical, hence why not a large buy in like expected. Take the hit on the P&L this year, offer medical and thin the ranks. The company wants and needs to keep their younger staff around. They are less expensive and more productive.
 
bhmdiversion
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:23 pm

nwadeicer wrote:
Fish on!
I've got some friends who are in ATL and they all say the doom and gloom is almost unbearable. They also said that it's hard not to feel that way when the ramp is a ghost town, all the transfer tugs are parked and they have literally boarded up access to the terminals they are not using, not sure which ones.


Concourses T, B, C, E are all closed. Walls are up on C and E. B will have some places throughout. Unknown what AATC will do with T - if it will be locked down.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:06 pm

NWAESC wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
NWAROOSTER wrote:
... Maybe the flight attendants now wish they voted in a union. ...

For those, who do not know exact intricacies of US labour law: if they start now, how long would it take, if some labour groups wish to organize a union in the US? As a matter of principle, is there a chance for them "making it" before September 30, and demanding layoffs to go through a union-agreed process?


To secure the benefits of representation, the FA's would need to the following before 9/30:

1. Get signed A-cards from 50%+1 of the flight attendant group.
2. Petition the NMB for a vote
3. Win that vote
4. Come to a tentative agreement with the company on a collective bargaining agreement
5. Vote on said agreement
6. Ratify said agreement.


That's a good outline, and no, it couldn't happen in six months. Even if they got the A-cards tomorrow, you couldn't expect the NMB to act on the petition immediately. You COULD expect the company to try to delay the craft vote, and to slow-roll progress to an agreement.

Union contracts won't protect workers as a whole when there's no money. They could enshrine seniority protections but, as noted, DL has continually recognized seniority anyway. Seniority protections just ensure that oldsters eat the young (it was what, 11 years minimum seniority after 9/11 to keep working as a pilot at NW?), and make the company even less efficient by triggering training cascades and relocation. Inflexible arrangements cost the company $$$ and send it into Chapter 11 that much faster; then you're not bargaining with the company, you're at the mercy of the judge.

If, as JP Morgan analyst Jamie N Baker has outlined, demand in 2021 is off 25% from 2019 levels, there's no way to maintain full industry employment. Congress won't provide two years of wage support (standard UI is 14 weeks in Alabama at $275/wk, for example) and companies won't have the margins. I don't believe employment cutbacks will be quite as severe as capacity cutbacks (morale, training costs).

If the consensus of smart people is that air travel demand will still be off 15-20% three years from now it's foolish (as well as expensive) to maintain 2019's capacity. The government didn't pay forever to maintain 1946's peak membership of the United Mine Workers of America, nor 1979's United Auto Workers membership, nor 1981's United Steelworkers membership. If sufficient restructuring can occur within the bounds of labor agreements (and I know DL has just two unionized crafts, pilots and dispatchers, plus Endeavor pilots and FAs), that's great. If not, the U.S. industry is headed for Ch 11 and Ch 7 filings. That's the framework long-established in the law.
 
LHA320
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:22 pm

Are there any official news from DL about future fleet changes other than the MD fleet phase-out?
AB6 - A319 - A320 - A321 - A333 - A388 - AT42 - 733 - 734 - 735 - 73H - 738 - 752 - 753 - 763 - 772 - DC10 - MD83
 
Lootess
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:43 pm

LHA320 wrote:
Are there any official news from DL about future fleet changes other than the MD fleet phase-out?


Older 763ERs will be accelerated.
 
ERAUMBA
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:47 pm

bkflyguy wrote:
NWAROOSTER wrote:
QUOTING FLYMCO753.. The DTW & MSP argument still persists but it's based on emotion rather than a factual context. As more Republic employees and older Northwest employees begin to retire, the feelings between them both will decrease. It's hard to completely get rid of it because those who have generations of family at the airport could carry it over.


As I understand it, much of the animosity between the Republic and NWA groups came from how the pilot groups were integrated. NW at the time of the merger, was a mostly wide-body airline whereas Republic was mostly narrowbody. Republic also had more pilots and they were more senior. While NW pilots wanted Republic pilots to be stapled to the bottom of the seniority list, and for fences around certain wide-body flying, the arbitrator disagreed. As a result, the seniority lists were integrated based on the date of hire (although I think there were some fences for a few years, they eventually expired). This led to some NW pilots being displaced from wide-body flying once Republic pilots were able to bid and hold that line. The result - much animosity. NW also had a much different management culture (some would say ruthless) which clashed with Republic's. And most of Republic's procedures were tossed out and everyone adopted NW's procedures (not a take the best from each approach).


Your “understanding” of the 1986 Northwest-Republic merger as it relates to pilots is very incorrect. This thread is also NOT the place for this discussion.
 
atlflyer
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:12 pm

Lootess wrote:
LHA320 wrote:
Are there any official news from DL about future fleet changes other than the MD fleet phase-out?


Older 763ERs will be accelerated.


Good because most of the 763ERs are tired.
 
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NWAROOSTER
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:03 pm

NWAESC wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
NWAROOSTER wrote:
... Maybe the flight attendants now wish they voted in a union. ...

For those, who do not know exact intricacies of US labour law: if they start now, how long would it take, if some labour groups wish to organize a union in the US? As a matter of principle, is there a chance for them "making it" before September 30, and demanding layoffs to go through a union-agreed process?


To secure the benefits of representation, the FA's would need to the following before 9/30:

1. Get signed A-cards from 50%+1 of the flight attendant group.
2. Petition the NMB for a vote
3. Win that vote
4. Come to a tentative agreement with the company on a collective bargaining agreement
5. Vote on said agreement
6. Ratify said agreement.


You quoted me as saying "Maybe the flight attendants now wish they voted in a union" which if you read it correctly it was and is in the PAST tense. I have NO option on any unit organization at Delta.

I fully understand the all the prerequisites of bringing a union on to the property and know that steps one through six MUST have been taken before the current pandemic to be effective.
I have a very good knowledge of the labor laws involving a union and how a "contract" with a company must be implemented as a former employee and also as a union representative. I understood the union contract better than MOST union representatives and company management employees. I may be the only person on official union business that was physically assaulted by a company director and that is a federal crime. Even though I did my work very well as mechanic but would not kiss his behind I was given a layoff notice out of seniority by an Assistant District Manager. The contract allowed me to require, per the union contract, that the personal department give me a complete printed list of all mechanics I could bump which was well over 1000 at my station within five days. Needless to say the head of personnel called his supervisor saying that; Do you know what he can do to us." The layoff was cancelled. One other at will management employee was terminated due to what he attempted to do to me over another incident. There are laws and union contracts and you need to know how to interpret them both and I did. A union contract, a legally binding agreement, may only be amended through contract negotiation with the company unless it involves a judge and the use of bankruptcy. Would not be surprised if Delta and the other airlines try and use some form of bankruptcy as the airlines have other major problems than employee head count. Some of them include new aircraft purchases, leases, leans on existing aircraft, debt, rents at stations they use and many other things. This also would include pensions with current retirees or those that would involve newly retired employees. There is a federally guaranteed pension program that Delta has relied on with their retired pilots in their last bankruptcy which was filed on September 14, 2005 which was the SAME day Northwest Airlines filed for bankruptcy. This was was done on that day as the next the day the bankruptcy laws were changing and they would have been less useful for both airlines. Also I would not be too surprised if Delta did not layoff at will employees in the last hired first method. This is a MUCH different scenario than in past layoffs. You can probably figure out where I worked by my posting handle. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:16 pm

I was answering a question posed by another user in response to your post.
You can probably tell where I worked by my user name, too.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
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deltacto
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:04 pm

bhmdiversion wrote:
Concourses T, B, C, E are all closed. Walls are up on C and E. B will have some places throughout. Unknown what AATC will do with T - if it will be locked down.


All of C or just part of C?

I'm wondering what gates Southwest is using
 
jagraham
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:23 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Will this situation affect the strategy DL has for using A220s?

Its the only fleet type not having any aircraft put into storage. It will probably be the only fleet type that will have near pre-downturn levels of utilization when things start to recover.

Obviously the delivery schedule will be impacted, however the revised delivery schedule will ultimately be tied to how DL and Airbus negotiate the total package of future deliveries A220, A321CEO, A321NEO, A339, A359


I believe DL will return to service most of the 717s. Aside from the A220, the 717 is cheapest to fly mostly empty.

After that, it depends on how travel comes back. If international travel is anemic, DL will be flying mostly 767s. Again because they are cheapest to fly empty. The 77Ls will fly for cargo and there are only 10 of them. I would expect after that the A359s and A339s will be the rest until travel goes over 60%.

There is also currency. 90 days of no flying, and a pilot needs to requalify. Some seemingly suboptimal flying will occur in order to keep a subset of pilots current. Beyond that, who knows?
 
alfa164
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:30 am

deltacto wrote:
bhmdiversion wrote:
Concourses T, B, C, E are all closed. Walls are up on C and E. B will have some places throughout. Unknown what AATC will do with T - if it will be locked down.


All of C or just part of C? I'm wondering what gates Southwest is using


I was wondering the same thing about "T"; where did AA go?
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United1
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:38 am

alfa164 wrote:
deltacto wrote:
bhmdiversion wrote:
Concourses T, B, C, E are all closed. Walls are up on C and E. B will have some places throughout. Unknown what AATC will do with T - if it will be locked down.


All of C or just part of C? I'm wondering what gates Southwest is using


I was wondering the same thing about "T"; where did AA go?


UA is still flying out of T so would assume AA is as well. The airport/Delta/OP probably just means they shut down the DL half of T.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
nwadeicer
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:27 am

bhmdiversion wrote:
nwadeicer wrote:
Fish on!
I've got some friends who are in ATL and they all say the doom and gloom is almost unbearable. They also said that it's hard not to feel that way when the ramp is a ghost town, all the transfer tugs are parked and they have literally boarded up access to the terminals they are not using, not sure which ones.


Concourses T, B, C, E are all closed. Walls are up on C and E. B will have some places throughout. Unknown what AATC will do with T - if it will be locked down.


Talked to a friend today who works the ramp there. Apparently they also shut down the access keypad as well. He didn't realize, whatever concourse he was on, was boarded up. You can enter the concourse thru the jet bridge but have to swipe to get out. All of the "swipers" have been disabled. Ended up having to call someone over the radio to let him out.
I miss the Red Tail
 
nwadeicer
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:30 am

NWAESC wrote:
I can relate. Setting up our bagroom now really just means backing a tug up to the belt, and dropping the rack.


One of the conversations today revolved around the possibility of those of us still left standing after they "Thin the herd" is whether or not Delta will cut our hourly pay. Didn't we take a 20% hit after bankruptcy with NWA?
I miss the Red Tail
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:52 am

I can’t remember the exact percentage, but it was definitely close to that.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:47 am

jagraham wrote:
I believe DL will return to service most of the 717s. Aside from the A220, the 717 is cheapest to fly mostly empty.

After that, it depends on how travel comes back. If international travel is anemic, DL will be flying mostly 767s. Again because they are cheapest to fly empty. The 77Ls will fly for cargo and there are only 10 of them. I would expect after that the A359s and A339s will be the rest until travel goes over 60%.

There is also currency. 90 days of no flying, and a pilot needs to requalify. Some seemingly suboptimal flying will occur in order to keep a subset of pilots current. Beyond that, who knows?


DL will be reducing its anemic schedule to largely a skeleton soon. It's logistically impossible to fly this schedule with primarily 717 or any other fleet type, even if DL wanted to; fleet types will be diverse, and DL will continue to market "social distancing" to make people feel safer. It's unlikely additional flights will be added until traffic warrants... put simply, DL isn't going to fly more empty planes -- and even a 60% LF would be considered "empty" -- than it has to.

Alas, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the 717 returned to Boeing. DL intended to retire these planes by the end of the decade, anyway, and said they would give the airline "flex capacity" in later years. At this point, there's little reason to keep the entire fleet around... the money saved on maintenance (including possible storage), lease payments, etc. would be better spent elsewhere - might as well add more 220 when they're necessary. The primary reason ATL and CLT can handle so many mainline aircraft is because of their proximity to vacation points south (mostly Florida), and the large number of people headed there. It's going to take years for this traffic to recover -- numerous smaller markets won't get mainline back for quite awhile. The fleet is going to shrink.

Similar reasons would apply as to why DL would outright retire many 767 now.


atlflyer wrote:
Good because most of the 763ERs are tired.


It's a psychological thing. The 763ER received brand new interiors; the 777ER and legacy 330 did not. Yet so many a.netters feel a late model 763ER is old and tired, whereas they don't feel the same way about the 777ER -- which are older -- or legacy 330, which range from a couple to several years newer. Post-merger, DL replaced the 330 on several long-haul flights I flew from DTW with the 763. I absolutely hated the 763 -- the interior design was old, and the in-flight product was archaic. But today, I love the 763 - easily my favorite ride within the long-haul fleet.
 
KMCOFlyer
Posts: 233
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:10 am

Once they can put COVID-19 aside from themselves, DL is going to have a hole in their midsize narrowbody (140-160 pax) fleet. Once DL retires the MD-88/90s at the end of the year (and possibly some of the older 320s, if they decide not to bring some of them back) DL is going to have a huge hole in the midsize (140-160 seat) market. I know that DL’s plan before all of this was to up-gauge capacity , but now that air travel has hit a sudden decline, I don’t know if this strategy will pay off well. Do any of you think that it is possible that we could see DL convert some of their future A321neo orders to the A320neo or even possibly push Airbus to develop the infamous hypothetical A220-500?
 
KFTG
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:30 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
jagraham wrote:
I believe DL will return to service most of the 717s. Aside from the A220, the 717 is cheapest to fly mostly empty.

After that, it depends on how travel comes back. If international travel is anemic, DL will be flying mostly 767s. Again because they are cheapest to fly empty. The 77Ls will fly for cargo and there are only 10 of them. I would expect after that the A359s and A339s will be the rest until travel goes over 60%.

There is also currency. 90 days of no flying, and a pilot needs to requalify. Some seemingly suboptimal flying will occur in order to keep a subset of pilots current. Beyond that, who knows?


DL will be reducing its anemic schedule to largely a skeleton soon. It's logistically impossible to fly this schedule with primarily 717 or any other fleet type, even if DL wanted to; fleet types will be diverse, and DL will continue to market "social distancing" to make people feel safer. It's unlikely additional flights will be added until traffic warrants... put simply, DL isn't going to fly more empty planes -- and even a 60% LF would be considered "empty" -- than it has to.

Alas, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the 717 returned to Boeing. DL intended to retire these planes by the end of the decade, anyway, and said they would give the airline "flex capacity" in later years. At this point, there's little reason to keep the entire fleet around... the money saved on maintenance (including possible storage), lease payments, etc. would be better spent elsewhere - might as well add more 220 when they're necessary. The primary reason ATL and CLT can handle so many mainline aircraft is because of their proximity to vacation points south (mostly Florida), and the large number of people headed there. It's going to take years for this traffic to recover -- numerous smaller markets won't get mainline back for quite awhile. The fleet is going to shrink.

Similar reasons would apply as to why DL would outright retire many 767 now.


atlflyer wrote:
Good because most of the 763ERs are tired.


It's a psychological thing. The 763ER received brand new interiors; the 777ER and legacy 330 did not. Yet so many a.netters feel a late model 763ER is old and tired, whereas they don't feel the same way about the 777ER -- which are older -- or legacy 330, which range from a couple to several years newer. Post-merger, DL replaced the 330 on several long-haul flights I flew from DTW with the 763. I absolutely hated the 763 -- the interior design was old, and the in-flight product was archaic. But today, I love the 763 - easily my favorite ride within the long-haul fleet.

There. Are. More. Parts. On. An. Aircraft. Than. Just. The. Interior. Fittings.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:40 am

KFTG wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
jagraham wrote:
I believe DL will return to service most of the 717s. Aside from the A220, the 717 is cheapest to fly mostly empty.

After that, it depends on how travel comes back. If international travel is anemic, DL will be flying mostly 767s. Again because they are cheapest to fly empty. The 77Ls will fly for cargo and there are only 10 of them. I would expect after that the A359s and A339s will be the rest until travel goes over 60%.

There is also currency. 90 days of no flying, and a pilot needs to requalify. Some seemingly suboptimal flying will occur in order to keep a subset of pilots current. Beyond that, who knows?


DL will be reducing its anemic schedule to largely a skeleton soon. It's logistically impossible to fly this schedule with primarily 717 or any other fleet type, even if DL wanted to; fleet types will be diverse, and DL will continue to market "social distancing" to make people feel safer. It's unlikely additional flights will be added until traffic warrants... put simply, DL isn't going to fly more empty planes -- and even a 60% LF would be considered "empty" -- than it has to.

Alas, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the 717 returned to Boeing. DL intended to retire these planes by the end of the decade, anyway, and said they would give the airline "flex capacity" in later years. At this point, there's little reason to keep the entire fleet around... the money saved on maintenance (including possible storage), lease payments, etc. would be better spent elsewhere - might as well add more 220 when they're necessary. The primary reason ATL and CLT can handle so many mainline aircraft is because of their proximity to vacation points south (mostly Florida), and the large number of people headed there. It's going to take years for this traffic to recover -- numerous smaller markets won't get mainline back for quite awhile. The fleet is going to shrink.

Similar reasons would apply as to why DL would outright retire many 767 now.


atlflyer wrote:
Good because most of the 763ERs are tired.


It's a psychological thing. The 763ER received brand new interiors; the 777ER and legacy 330 did not. Yet so many a.netters feel a late model 763ER is old and tired, whereas they don't feel the same way about the 777ER -- which are older -- or legacy 330, which range from a couple to several years newer. Post-merger, DL replaced the 330 on several long-haul flights I flew from DTW with the 763. I absolutely hated the 763 -- the interior design was old, and the in-flight product was archaic. But today, I love the 763 - easily my favorite ride within the long-haul fleet.

There. Are. More. Parts. On. An. Aircraft. Than. Just. The. Interior. Fittings.


What exactly are these parts that are relevant to the passenger experience? Do tell.
 
KFTG
Posts: 864
Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 12:08 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:46 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
What exactly are these parts that are relevant to the passenger experience? Do tell.

The engines (that are increasingly expensive to maintain) being properly maintained such that they provide reliable thrust (to keep everyone alive) as well as reliable power source via the generators?
The flight control systems and associated avionics (that are increasingly expensive to maintain) to ensure proper operation of the flight with the envelope, thus providing for a smooth and comfortable passenger environment?
The environmental control systems (that are increasingly expensive to maintain) that ensure proper, adequate, and reliable delivery of potable water, waste extraction, heating/cooling, air flow/circulation?
The other factors being residual value of the airframe and suitability for freighter conversion (where demand actually exists right now), this process having already been undertaken among the ex-Delta 767-300ER fleet...
It is utterly bizarre to read comments on this forum that lead one to believe the person typing them sincerely thinks that "but the cabin is new!" is the only factor being weighed when discussing a fleet's exit.
Any other questions?
 
N104HR
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:24 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:46 pm

NWAROOSTER wrote:
FSDan wrote:
NWAROOSTER wrote:
Richard Anderson, then CEO of Delta, promised in congressional hearings about the proposed merger of Delta and Northwest that Delta would never abandon MEM. He never kept his word about MEM and Delta basically left MEM to wither on the vine.


Did he really promise that DL would never dehub MEM? I'm guessing that as a seasoned corporate veteran, he likely said something wishy-washy along the lines of "we have no plans to drop any hubs", which may well have been true at the time, even if only as a technicality. DL did briefly try out a few adds at MEM after the merger, such as AMA and LBB, before reversing course and drawing the operation down.

Richard Anderson or Richard as he prefers to be called was asked several times during congressional hearings about keeping Memphis open and always answered that MEM would be kept open and viable as a hub. These questions were asked of Richard as MEM is only 331 air miles from ATL. If Richard has indIcated that MEM would be seriously cut back the merger would have been more difficult to happen. I remember that distinctly as having worked for Northwest and knowing Richard I made it a point to keep track and up to date on the hearings and the progress of the completion of any merger between Delta and Northwest. Basically, Delta now only operates MEM flights to it's major hubs and NYC. Under Northwest KLM had non stop flights between MEM and AMS which no longer exist.
MEM was a hub that Republic developed and Northwest continued to use without significant reductions in service. Delta began eliminating flights at MEM soon after the merger and officially DeHubed MEM on Labor Day of 2013. Other airlines have stepped in with some being one stop flights to a final destination. :old:


I hardly think we can blame Tricky Dicky on the demise of MEM, completely. Or at least solely. It was the then Mayor AC Wharton who encouraged DL to leave by removing long-time MSCAA director Larry Cox from his throne and cancelling the 40 year gate lease contracts that would have expired in 2026. Wharton along with the media were so desperate to have WN/G4 move in it was sick. They even promoted a group called “Delta Does Memphis”. There is always a price to be paid when having a fortress hub. But it is a premium to be able to get anywhere you want to go 3-4 times a day directly.

It is my hope MSP is there to stay, but I would think it would be more likely to be on the chopping block than DTW if you want to go off of what DL has invested in AO facilities. If I am not mistaken, the terminal at DTW is partially owned by DL whereas MSP is owned by the MAC. Now I grant everyone this, they did shudder their fairly new facility at CVG. But DTW has stood the test of time much better. We are almost on the 20th year of the new terminal!

NWAESC wrote:
nwadeicer wrote:
So, word around the water cooler this week. If you've got 15 years or less of seniority as of 10-01-2020 you will enjoy the benefits of unemployment. Delta is looking at shaving 50% of its below and upper wing employees as well as outsourcing those cities with mainline employees on one level and outsourced employees on the other (mainline above wing, DGS below, etc). If true, fun times ahead for all!


Maybe, but I don't see that happening w/o a massive Early Out offer. Our company may be in fire drill mode, but I'm sure someone has costed out the idea of having a bunch of us Red Tailers being the last people standing. TBH, I see a lot of cities going to 4 Hour rule as being more likely than the wholesale farming out of everything. I guess we'll see. Either way, everyone should have a plan for life after Labor day.


Can you outline the 4 hour rule more so for me? I did create a separate thread on it because it really piques my interest. From what I can tell, DL has never been big on having XU agents. Remember, up until the merger only the hubs and maybe MCO/LAX/LAS/DFW had mainline ramp. All other cities were outsourced.
 
AEROFAN
Posts: 1870
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:47 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:11 pm

This doom and gloom and panic and sky is falling is overblown and not proportional to reality. Once a vaccine comes out in a few months, businesses will re open and new opportunities will arise; production engines will ramp up and this too will be just a memory. The flying public will return and people will once again gorge themselves on useless crap and return to doing what they were doing before COVID. Airlines will pull aircraft out of storage and EK will return to its plans of flying to ever city on earth.
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.” ~Harlan Ellison~
 
0newair0
Posts: 437
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:21 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:04 pm

AEROFAN wrote:
This doom and gloom and panic and sky is falling is overblown and not proportional to reality. Once a vaccine comes out in a few months, businesses will re open and new opportunities will arise; production engines will ramp up and this too will be just a memory. The flying public will return and people will once again gorge themselves on useless crap and return to doing what they were doing before COVID. Airlines will pull aircraft out of storage and EK will return to its plans of flying to ever city on earth.
I believe your timeline for a vaccine is slightly optimistic. Earliest a vaccine would be available would be this time next year. If business and leisure remains low until then, virtually no airline will be able to survive. The doom and gloom is very real.

I am choosing to be optimistic that people in significant numbers, especially in the US, will choose to take the risk and start moving around long before a vaccine is available. This will enable the airlines to survive, though there will likely be layoffs and/or furloughs.
That's not how this works! That's not how any of this works!
 
nwadeicer
Posts: 310
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 3:17 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:36 pm

N104HR wrote:
NWAROOSTER wrote:
FSDan wrote:

Did he really promise that DL would never dehub MEM? I'm guessing that as a seasoned corporate veteran, he likely said something wishy-washy along the lines of "we have no plans to drop any hubs", which may well have been true at the time, even if only as a technicality. DL did briefly try out a few adds at MEM after the merger, such as AMA and LBB, before reversing course and drawing the operation down.

Richard Anderson or Richard as he prefers to be called was asked several times during congressional hearings about keeping Memphis open and always answered that MEM would be kept open and viable as a hub. These questions were asked of Richard as MEM is only 331 air miles from ATL. If Richard has indIcated that MEM would be seriously cut back the merger would have been more difficult to happen. I remember that distinctly as having worked for Northwest and knowing Richard I made it a point to keep track and up to date on the hearings and the progress of the completion of any merger between Delta and Northwest. Basically, Delta now only operates MEM flights to it's major hubs and NYC. Under Northwest KLM had non stop flights between MEM and AMS which no longer exist.
MEM was a hub that Republic developed and Northwest continued to use without significant reductions in service. Delta began eliminating flights at MEM soon after the merger and officially DeHubed MEM on Labor Day of 2013. Other airlines have stepped in with some being one stop flights to a final destination. :old:


I hardly think we can blame Tricky Dicky on the demise of MEM, completely. Or at least solely. It was the then Mayor AC Wharton who encouraged DL to leave by removing long-time MSCAA director Larry Cox from his throne and cancelling the 40 year gate lease contracts that would have expired in 2026. Wharton along with the media were so desperate to have WN/G4 move in it was sick. They even promoted a group called “Delta Does Memphis”. There is always a price to be paid when having a fortress hub. But it is a premium to be able to get anywhere you want to go 3-4 times a day directly.

It is my hope MSP is there to stay, but I would think it would be more likely to be on the chopping block than DTW if you want to go off of what DL has invested in AO facilities. If I am not mistaken, the terminal at DTW is partially owned by DL whereas MSP is owned by the MAC. Now I grant everyone this, they did shudder their fairly new facility at CVG. But DTW has stood the test of time much better. We are almost on the 20th year of the new terminal!

NWAESC wrote:
nwadeicer wrote:
So, word around the water cooler this week. If you've got 15 years or less of seniority as of 10-01-2020 you will enjoy the benefits of unemployment. Delta is looking at shaving 50% of its below and upper wing employees as well as outsourcing those cities with mainline employees on one level and outsourced employees on the other (mainline above wing, DGS below, etc). If true, fun times ahead for all!


Maybe, but I don't see that happening w/o a massive Early Out offer. Our company may be in fire drill mode, but I'm sure someone has costed out the idea of having a bunch of us Red Tailers being the last people standing. TBH, I see a lot of cities going to 4 Hour rule as being more likely than the wholesale farming out of everything. I guess we'll see. Either way, everyone should have a plan for life after Labor day.


Can you outline the 4 hour rule more so for me? I did create a separate thread on it because it really piques my interest. From what I can tell, DL has never been big on having XU agents. Remember, up until the merger only the hubs and maybe MCO/LAX/LAS/DFW had mainline ramp. All other cities were outsourced.


To try to make it short. At NWA if your station only had X amount of flights per either week or day, sorry cannot remember the exact phrase, you were deemed a 4 hour rule station. What that meant was the employees there were all crossed trained to perform both above and below wing duties.
I miss the Red Tail
 
Detroit313
Posts: 551
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:52 pm

The collapse of Virgin Australia will hurt Delta even more in Los Angeles and the West Coast.

AA has Qantas and United Air New Zealand.

And with Alaska joining One World, One World will have ny far the largest market share in Los Angeles.
 
Aceskywalker
Posts: 150
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:58 pm

Could DL just cut their losses in Australia if VA goes under? That and continued depressed demand could lead the carrier to de-hub Los Angeles.
 
User avatar
NWAESC
Posts: 1612
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2007 1:02 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:00 pm

N104HR wrote:
Can you outline the 4 hour rule more so for me? I did create a separate thread on it because it really piques my interest. From what I can tell, DL has never been big on having XU agents. Remember, up until the merger only the hubs and maybe MCO/LAX/LAS/DFW had mainline ramp. All other cities were outsourced.


Sure. So every flight had a ground time plus time alloted for both pre-arrival, and post-departure. If all of that time amount to more than 4 hours in an 8 hour period, the station was staffed with both ramp and gate agents (or 120 and 125 as today's equivalent). If not, then employees performed both AW & BW functions. These employees were covered under the contract covering AW employees, known as the "grey book" internally. Places like BOI, LSE, and VPS etc. fell under this designation. Just to muddy the waters a little bit, some stations had ramp service grandfathered in. BIL, MSO, RST, and FLL to name a couple.

To bring it back to today: My suggestion of returning to that would be a more efficient use of resources, while also possibly mitigating furloughs of mainline employees.

LAS and DFW were not staffed by DL prior to the merger. NW had ramp at both.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:33 pm

KFTG wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
What exactly are these parts that are relevant to the passenger experience? Do tell.

The engines (that are increasingly expensive to maintain) being properly maintained such that they provide reliable thrust (to keep everyone alive) as well as reliable power source via the generators?
The flight control systems and associated avionics (that are increasingly expensive to maintain) to ensure proper operation of the flight with the envelope, thus providing for a smooth and comfortable passenger environment?
The environmental control systems (that are increasingly expensive to maintain) that ensure proper, adequate, and reliable delivery of potable water, waste extraction, heating/cooling, air flow/circulation?
The other factors being residual value of the airframe and suitability for freighter conversion (where demand actually exists right now), this process having already been undertaken among the ex-Delta 767-300ER fleet...
It is utterly bizarre to read comments on this forum that lead one to believe the person typing them sincerely thinks that "but the cabin is new!" is the only factor being weighed when discussing a fleet's exit.
Any other questions?


Your response is utterly bizarre. I merely disagreed that the 763’s cabins look “tired.” I did not discuss anything regarding the retirement of these aircraft.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 289
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:39 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
The collapse of Virgin Australia will hurt Delta even more in Los Angeles and the West Coast.

AA has Qantas and United Air New Zealand.

And with Alaska joining One World, One World will have ny far the largest market share in Los Angeles.


The loss of Virginia Australia wouldn’t be significant in terms of DL’s market position within the West Coast. The vast majority of people traveling from Australia/New Zealand are from there, and the number of US-based FF who’d defect to AA or UA because of the loss of Virgin Australia could be counted on no hands.
 
PANAMsterdam
Posts: 290
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:42 pm

AEROFAN wrote:
This doom and gloom and panic and sky is falling is overblown and not proportional to reality. Once a vaccine comes out in a few months, businesses will re open and new opportunities will arise.


Quick history lesson: The quickest vaccine ever to be developed was the mumps vaccine. Development time: 4 years.

So no, there probably won't be a COVID19 vaccine 'in a few months'. And even if by a miracle there would be vaccine by say December, it is going to take months if not years for those vaccines to have been produced, distributed and of course given to billions of people. We don't even know if one shot of the vaccine will be enough and how long it will take before you are immune.

Example: A vaccine to prevent Hepatitis B consists of three injections. You get the first injection today, the second injection next month and the third one five months after the second and only then you are protected and is the vaccine effective.

So COVID19 is indeed a long lasting health crisis, we haven't even discussed the mental health consequences of the virus. We all know the stories of passengers doing crazy things, forcing a pilot to divert. How are people going to react when somebody coughs or sneezes onboard?

So, to go back on topic, all airlines will come out of this as a smaller airline. It is only logical to start small again, dumping too much capacity onto the market has proven over and over again to be a recipe for disaster: Braniff, WOW, Primera, Norwegian just to name a few.
Every country has an airline. The world has Pan Am.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:36 pm

Aceskywalker wrote:
Could DL just cut their losses in Australia if VA goes under? That and continued depressed demand could lead the carrier to de-hub Los Angeles.


Regarding LAX, very doubtful. They're in the middle of a massive terminal redevelopment project at LAX, and I'd be surprised if they give up all the long term investment and positioning they've been doing in the market for a short term setback. AA and UA will need to be making the same kind of evaluations about their positions in the LAX market, but a complication in their cases is that both have nearby hubs that duplicate some of the traffic flows of LAX (e.g. mainland to Hawai'i) and where they have stronger overall market positions to defend. I'm not saying any of the three will turn LAX into a pure spoke, but I don't think AA or UA have much stronger cases to keep LAX as a hub than DL has.

Regarding Australia, through the VA JV DL has had access to the numbers on the various markets for several years - if BNE or MEL were strategically important for corporate or other high value traffic in DL's network, DL can look at filling those gaps themselves. On the other hand, if LAX-SYD was highly reliant on connections to secondary Australian markets (which I somehow doubt), DL could look at cutting it. But I'm guessing the overall reduction in capacity in the market with VA gone could help out the DL flight.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 116
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:45 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
The collapse of Virgin Australia will hurt Delta even more in Los Angeles and the West Coast.

AA has Qantas and United Air New Zealand.

And with Alaska joining One World, One World will have ny far the largest market share in Los Angeles.


The loss of Virginia Australia wouldn’t be significant in terms of DL’s market position within the West Coast. The vast majority of people traveling from Australia/New Zealand are from there, and the number of US-based FF who’d defect to AA or UA because of the loss of Virgin Australia could be counted on no hands.


I don't believe those SYD routes are really big money makes for UAL/DL/AA. Its probably why going back to the 70s those routes have been cyclical among the big US carriers. They come for a decade or so then they go then they're back.
 
JAMBOJET
Posts: 293
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:25 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
The collapse of Virgin Australia will hurt Delta even more in Los Angeles and the West Coast.

AA has Qantas and United Air New Zealand.

And with Alaska joining One World, One World will have ny far the largest market share in Los Angeles.


The loss of Virginia Australia wouldn’t be significant in terms of DL’s market position within the West Coast. The vast majority of people traveling from Australia/New Zealand are from there, and the number of US-based FF who’d defect to AA or UA because of the loss of Virgin Australia could be counted on no hands.

Are you really suggesting the ability to take Delta FF on the West Coast to places such as MEL, BNE, PER, Canberra, and all of New Zealand is worth nothing? I obviously don't have the data like you, but I'm sure there are Delta US-Based FF that value the ability to be taken to anywhere in Oceania outside SYD and get their Delta miles. And once Delta can't take them there, of course they'll defect to the other carriers that can.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5462
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:45 pm

In that case, then DL either get them there through ICN or DL has to start flying to SYD on its own metal.

At some point, DL needs to take a look at JVs and figure out what to do with all its partners in trouble. I'm assuming DL will get through with gov't help even if they might have to file chapter 11. But let's look at their JV partners.

VS - good chance British gov't will let it go under. Then what is DL going to do with its 11? slots at LHR. Get more slots from AF/KL? Flying to LGW? Probably their biggest headache.

AF/KL - probably will do fine long term even if they have to suffer for a few years. French and Dutch gov't aren't going to let their flag carrier die off.

KE - Probably will also survive, but I expect a lot of cuts for the coming few years.

VA - combined with VA dying off basically, what is DL's TPAC strategy? Now, they are far and away the weakest to Oceania and really weak to south east asia and hong kong. Not a big problem for midwest where the dominate, but huge problem for their NY/LA ff base.

WS - likely big reduction in their transborder capacity for a while. I'm assuming JV still goes ahead, but does WS survive this with oil price at an all time low and Alberta oil industry likely to be decimated for a few years. Won't be surprised if WS doesn't make it through this.

AM - Another big question here. Although to be fair, I don't think Mexican gov't will let AM go under.

LA - How big is LA after this? Another airline that seems like it will shrink its international profile by quite a bit. And this summer for us will be winter for them, which is bad news for slowing down COVID.

All this JV strategies seem like a brilliant idea back then, but they are going to lose a lot from their ownership strategy.

Compare this to AA, BA, QF, JL, CZ and CX will not be left to go under.

Or UA, LH, AC, NH, CA will all survive this, although AV/CM will probably get downsized even more.

If UA took a $1 billion hit on its investments. What will DL's hit on its investment be?
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6194
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:00 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:
AEROFAN wrote:
This doom and gloom and panic and sky is falling is overblown and not proportional to reality. Once a vaccine comes out in a few months, businesses will re open and new opportunities will arise.


Quick history lesson: The quickest vaccine ever to be developed was the mumps vaccine. Development time: 4 years.

So no, there probably won't be a COVID19 vaccine 'in a few months'. And even if by a miracle there would be vaccine by say December, it is going to take months if not years for those vaccines to have been produced, distributed and of course given to billions of people. We don't even know if one shot of the vaccine will be enough and how long it will take before you are immune.

Example: A vaccine to prevent Hepatitis B consists of three injections. You get the first injection today, the second injection next month and the third one five months after the second and only then you are protected and is the vaccine effective.

So COVID19 is indeed a long lasting health crisis, we haven't even discussed the mental health consequences of the virus. We all know the stories of passengers doing crazy things, forcing a pilot to divert. How are people going to react when somebody coughs or sneezes onboard?

So, to go back on topic, all airlines will come out of this as a smaller airline. It is only logical to start small again, dumping too much capacity onto the market has proven over and over again to be a recipe for disaster: Braniff, WOW, Primera, Norwegian just to name a few.


To start to recover, we dont need a vaccine. The vaccine can be a nail in the coffin to the virus.

What we need is a treatment. A set of drugs that can put this virus in check. If we can get that, things can start to come to life again. That shouldnt take anywhere near a year. Hopefully just 2-3 more months.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
jordanh
Posts: 326
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:56 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:40 pm

tphuang wrote:
In that case, then DL either get them there through ICN or DL has to start flying to SYD on its own metal.


Delta does fly to SYD on its own metal. Perhaps you missed that.



tphuang wrote:
LA - How big is LA after this? Another airline that seems like it will shrink its international profile by quite a bit. And this summer for us will be winter for them, which is bad news for slowing down COVID.


Of course we will; everybody will. However, I will say we are in a much stronger position than any other major airline in South America; look at all the flights the other airlines were deleting from North America (Gol, Azul) before the infections, and the weakness of airlines like Avianca before this even started.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 116
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:56 pm

JAMBOJET wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
The collapse of Virgin Australia will hurt Delta even more in Los Angeles and the West Coast.

AA has Qantas and United Air New Zealand.

And with Alaska joining One World, One World will have ny far the largest market share in Los Angeles.


The loss of Virginia Australia wouldn’t be significant in terms of DL’s market position within the West Coast. The vast majority of people traveling from Australia/New Zealand are from there, and the number of US-based FF who’d defect to AA or UA because of the loss of Virgin Australia could be counted on no hands.

Are you really suggesting the ability to take Delta FF on the West Coast to places such as MEL, BNE, PER, Canberra, and all of New Zealand is worth nothing? I obviously don't have the data like you, but I'm sure there are Delta US-Based FF that value the ability to be taken to anywhere in Oceania outside SYD and get their Delta miles. And once Delta can't take them there, of course they'll defect to the other carriers that can.


We may be overrating ANZ's potential to help UAL too. I mean they cannot fly anywhere in Australia point to point and UAL already goes to AKL so you can make the argument both DAL and UAL could abandon SYD service after this all ends though we know they probably both won't.
 
JAMBOJET
Posts: 293
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:13 pm

LNCS0930 wrote:
We may be overrating ANZ's potential to help UAL too. I mean they cannot fly anywhere in Australia point to point and UAL already goes to AKL so you can make the argument both DAL and UAL could abandon SYD service after this all ends though we know they probably both won't.


Fair point, but I think that impacts more Australia-based customers than it does United's US-based frequent fliers.

United and Qantas have an Australia-only codeshare connection agreement that's been around for a while. I'm sure someone on here knows the details much more than I do. Mine is just personal experience using it out of ORD and reading about it occasionally on this site.

For instance, if you go on to united.com and book travel for SFO (or anywhere US-based) to CBR, United will sell you the US-based ride on United, then a connection on QF: SFO-SYD-CBR with SYD-CBR on qantas. However, you can't go on to United.com and book SYD-CBR alone. United and Qantas offer this to many places where even NZ fly like BNE. From a quick play with united.com, United's booking system almost seems to prefer selling the QF connection over NZ.

I think it's still a positive differentiator for United's US-based Frequent fliers over Delta. I guess Delta could theoretically arrange something similar with Qantas but it seems less likely post AA/QF joint venture and the terms don't seem like they'd be great for Delta in that negotiating position.

Regardless of the UA/QF agreement, even the ability to leverage an AKL connection to most major Australian cities would be an advantage United would have over Delta on the West Coast.

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