Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
Detroit313
Posts: 546
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:17 pm

Delta is extremely weak in Australia, New Zealand, Tokyo and Hong Kong. You need to have presence and partners in those markets to be profitable in Los Angeles.
 
AEROFAN
Posts: 1868
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:47 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:49 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:
AEROFAN wrote:
This doom and gloom and panic and sky is falling is overblown and not proportional to reality. Once a vaccine comes out in a few months, businesses will re open and new opportunities will arise.


Quick history lesson: The quickest vaccine ever to be developed was the mumps vaccine. Development time: 4 years.

So no, there probably won't be a COVID19 vaccine 'in a few months'. And even if by a miracle there would be vaccine by say December, it is going to take months if not years for those vaccines to have been produced, distributed and of course given to billions of people. We don't even know if one shot of the vaccine will be enough and how long it will take before you are immune.

Example: A vaccine to prevent Hepatitis B consists of three injections. You get the first injection today, the second injection next month and the third one five months after the second and only then you are protected and is the vaccine effective.

So COVID19 is indeed a long lasting health crisis, we haven't even discussed the mental health consequences of the virus. We all know the stories of passengers doing crazy things, forcing a pilot to divert. How are people going to react when somebody coughs or sneezes onboard?

So, to go back on topic, all airlines will come out of this as a smaller airline. It is only logical to start small again, dumping too much capacity onto the market has proven over and over again to be a recipe for disaster: Braniff, WOW, Primera, Norwegian just to name a few.


To start to recover, we dont need a vaccine. The vaccine can be a nail in the coffin to the virus.

What we need is a treatment. A set of drugs that can put this virus in check. If we can get that, things can start to come to life again. That shouldnt take anywhere near a year. Hopefully just 2-3 more months.

And once this treatment is announced it will be back to business as people will think it is contained and believe even more that it's just another flu. Once this happens I am confident that people who have been cooped up for two months will hit the road with a vengeance. Airlines just need to hold on for another few months.
“You are not entitled to your opinion. You are entitled to your informed opinion. No one is entitled to be ignorant.” ~Harlan Ellison~
 
Aceskywalker
Posts: 148
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:07 pm

AEROFAN wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:

Quick history lesson: The quickest vaccine ever to be developed was the mumps vaccine. Development time: 4 years.

So no, there probably won't be a COVID19 vaccine 'in a few months'. And even if by a miracle there would be vaccine by say December, it is going to take months if not years for those vaccines to have been produced, distributed and of course given to billions of people. We don't even know if one shot of the vaccine will be enough and how long it will take before you are immune.

Example: A vaccine to prevent Hepatitis B consists of three injections. You get the first injection today, the second injection next month and the third one five months after the second and only then you are protected and is the vaccine effective.

So COVID19 is indeed a long lasting health crisis, we haven't even discussed the mental health consequences of the virus. We all know the stories of passengers doing crazy things, forcing a pilot to divert. How are people going to react when somebody coughs or sneezes onboard?

So, to go back on topic, all airlines will come out of this as a smaller airline. It is only logical to start small again, dumping too much capacity onto the market has proven over and over again to be a recipe for disaster: Braniff, WOW, Primera, Norwegian just to name a few.


To start to recover, we dont need a vaccine. The vaccine can be a nail in the coffin to the virus.

What we need is a treatment. A set of drugs that can put this virus in check. If we can get that, things can start to come to life again. That shouldnt take anywhere near a year. Hopefully just 2-3 more months.

And once this treatment is announced it will be back to business as people will think it is contained and believe even more that it's just another flu. Once this happens I am confident that people who have been cooped up for two months will hit the road with a vengeance. Airlines just need to hold on for another few months.


I don’t think so. Returning to the masses thinking it’s just another flu is dangerous thinking regardless of a treatment option. Last I heard the trials are getting mixed results so 2-3 months is optimistic thinking.

Even if people are cooped up I don’t believe we will see a strong surge of people hitting the road with a vengeance in a few months. Economic uncertainty could last up to mass inoculations of a vaccine. It’s going to take a bit for the millions of furloughed and unemployed people to get back on their feet, and have the discretionary income to consider traveling. Others who do have the income to travel would probably find themselves wiser to fatten their savings.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:11 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
Delta is extremely weak in Australia, New Zealand, Tokyo and Hong Kong. You need to have presence and partners in those markets to be profitable in Los Angeles.


Let's see you back these assertions up with some numbers.

First, I'd like for you to post the profitability numbers for AA's, DL's, UA's, and WN's LAX operations. Raw numbers or margins are fine. Please and thank you. Once you've posted those numbers, we can see if AA (who is the only one of those airlines to serve all the vital markets you pointed out nonstop from LAX, at least on a seasonal basis) is indeed financially performing the best, and thereby verify your claim.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
winginit
Posts: 2931
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:11 pm

Aceskywalker wrote:
AEROFAN wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

To start to recover, we dont need a vaccine. The vaccine can be a nail in the coffin to the virus.

What we need is a treatment. A set of drugs that can put this virus in check. If we can get that, things can start to come to life again. That shouldnt take anywhere near a year. Hopefully just 2-3 more months.

And once this treatment is announced it will be back to business as people will think it is contained and believe even more that it's just another flu. Once this happens I am confident that people who have been cooped up for two months will hit the road with a vengeance. Airlines just need to hold on for another few months.


I don’t think so. Returning to the masses thinking it’s just another flu is dangerous thinking regardless of a treatment option. Last I heard the trials are getting mixed results so 2-3 months is optimistic thinking.

Even if people are cooped up I don’t believe we will see a strong surge of people hitting the road with a vengeance in a few months. Economic uncertainty could last up to mass inoculations of a vaccine. It’s going to take a bit for the millions of furloughed and unemployed people to get back on their feet, and have the discretionary income to consider traveling. Others who do have the income to travel would probably find themselves wiser to fatten their savings.


Today's episode of The Daily Podcast does a really excellent job of mapping out the scenarios around a vaccine, treatment, and what the next year or two look like. It's a worthwhile listen.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6193
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:58 pm

winginit wrote:
Aceskywalker wrote:
AEROFAN wrote:
And once this treatment is announced it will be back to business as people will think it is contained and believe even more that it's just another flu. Once this happens I am confident that people who have been cooped up for two months will hit the road with a vengeance. Airlines just need to hold on for another few months.


I don’t think so. Returning to the masses thinking it’s just another flu is dangerous thinking regardless of a treatment option. Last I heard the trials are getting mixed results so 2-3 months is optimistic thinking.

Even if people are cooped up I don’t believe we will see a strong surge of people hitting the road with a vengeance in a few months. Economic uncertainty could last up to mass inoculations of a vaccine. It’s going to take a bit for the millions of furloughed and unemployed people to get back on their feet, and have the discretionary income to consider traveling. Others who do have the income to travel would probably find themselves wiser to fatten their savings.


Today's episode of The Daily Podcast does a really excellent job of mapping out the scenarios around a vaccine, treatment, and what the next year or two look like. It's a worthwhile listen.


It was a worthwhile listen and I think the immunologist had some great points about the virus itself. However, what he described American could look like will NEVER happen in a country like the US. Carrying around immunology certificates? More strict forced lockdowns for long periods of time? He will describing a police state and martial law. Never going to happen for better or worse.

Whats more realistic is that the average US citizen will tolerate this for a bit longer. If it continues to go down this road, the economy continues to die, and more and more people end up compromised because of governmental ineptitude and the lack of being able to support yourself, what will happen is that people will say "screw it" and just go back to trying to live and the virus will kill who it does.

Now, Im not saying thats what I want to happen (it isnt) but I know this country. Americans will eventually refuse to tolerate these conditions virus or not.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
0newair0
Posts: 421
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2007 12:21 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:02 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
winginit wrote:
Aceskywalker wrote:

I don’t think so. Returning to the masses thinking it’s just another flu is dangerous thinking regardless of a treatment option. Last I heard the trials are getting mixed results so 2-3 months is optimistic thinking.

Even if people are cooped up I don’t believe we will see a strong surge of people hitting the road with a vengeance in a few months. Economic uncertainty could last up to mass inoculations of a vaccine. It’s going to take a bit for the millions of furloughed and unemployed people to get back on their feet, and have the discretionary income to consider traveling. Others who do have the income to travel would probably find themselves wiser to fatten their savings.


Today's episode of The Daily Podcast does a really excellent job of mapping out the scenarios around a vaccine, treatment, and what the next year or two look like. It's a worthwhile listen.


It was a worthwhile listen and I think the immunologist had some great points about the virus itself. However, what he described American could look like will NEVER happen in a country like the US. Carrying around immunology certificates? More strict forced lockdowns for long periods of time? He will describing a police state and martial law. Never going to happen for better or worse.

Whats more realistic is that the average US citizen will tolerate this for a bit longer. If it continues to go down this road, the economy continues to die, and more and more people end up compromised because of governmental ineptitude and the lack of being able to support yourself, what will happen is that people will say "screw it" and just go back to trying to live and the virus will kill who it does.

Now, Im not saying thats what I want to happen (it isnt) but I know this country. Americans will eventually refuse to tolerate these conditions virus or not.


I think this is a good assessment. Americans, as a whole, will not allow for the technocracy to continue for much longer. People will become more and more tolerant of the risks and start to go about their lives again - while hopefully being a lot more sanitary than before.
That's not how this works! That's not how any of this works!
 
Lootess
Posts: 489
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:04 pm

Detroit313 wrote:
Delta is extremely weak in Australia, New Zealand, Tokyo and Hong Kong. You need to have presence and partners in those markets to be profitable in Los Angeles.


Your statement doesn't make any sense considering the VA-DL JV.

Image
 
JAMBOJET
Posts: 293
Joined: Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:23 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:53 pm

Lootess wrote:
Detroit313 wrote:
Delta is extremely weak in Australia, New Zealand, Tokyo and Hong Kong. You need to have presence and partners in those markets to be profitable in Los Angeles.


Your statement doesn't make any sense considering the VA-DL JV.

Image

Not agreeing or disagreeing that QF/NZ, JL/NH, or CX make LAX more/less profitable than Delta's partners in Asia/Oceania, but I think the comment was made with the idea that VA is effectively dead or near it.
https://onemileatatime.com/virgin-austr ... istration/
 
User avatar
spinotter
Posts: 796
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:27 pm

AEROFAN wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:

Quick history lesson: The quickest vaccine ever to be developed was the mumps vaccine. Development time: 4 years.

So no, there probably won't be a COVID19 vaccine 'in a few months'. And even if by a miracle there would be vaccine by say December, it is going to take months if not years for those vaccines to have been produced, distributed and of course given to billions of people. We don't even know if one shot of the vaccine will be enough and how long it will take before you are immune.

Example: A vaccine to prevent Hepatitis B consists of three injections. You get the first injection today, the second injection next month and the third one five months after the second and only then you are protected and is the vaccine effective.

So COVID19 is indeed a long lasting health crisis, we haven't even discussed the mental health consequences of the virus. We all know the stories of passengers doing crazy things, forcing a pilot to divert. How are people going to react when somebody coughs or sneezes onboard?

So, to go back on topic, all airlines will come out of this as a smaller airline. It is only logical to start small again, dumping too much capacity onto the market has proven over and over again to be a recipe for disaster: Braniff, WOW, Primera, Norwegian just to name a few.


To start to recover, we dont need a vaccine. The vaccine can be a nail in the coffin to the virus.

What we need is a treatment. A set of drugs that can put this virus in check. If we can get that, things can start to come to life again. That shouldnt take anywhere near a year. Hopefully just 2-3 more months.

And once this treatment is announced it will be back to business as people will think it is contained and believe even more that it's just another flu. Once this happens I am confident that people who have been cooped up for two months will hit the road with a vengeance. Airlines just need to hold on for another few months.


And then a massive second wave of infections will ensue. Is that what you are hoping for?
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2045
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:52 pm

spinotter wrote:
AEROFAN wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

To start to recover, we dont need a vaccine. The vaccine can be a nail in the coffin to the virus.

What we need is a treatment. A set of drugs that can put this virus in check. If we can get that, things can start to come to life again. That shouldnt take anywhere near a year. Hopefully just 2-3 more months.

And once this treatment is announced it will be back to business as people will think it is contained and believe even more that it's just another flu. Once this happens I am confident that people who have been cooped up for two months will hit the road with a vengeance. Airlines just need to hold on for another few months.


And then a massive second wave of infections will ensue. Is that what you are hoping for?


We have some of the best medical and scientific minds working on this. Treatment with Remdisivir for example seems to be working. It's just finding the right combonations of drugs and doses etc. It wil be worked out. There will be a lot of pent up demand when this is over and people will fly again. Hoping for the Best Delta has already scheduled the full complement of flights for July in my hometown.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:07 am

freakyrat wrote:
Delta has already scheduled the full complement of flights for July in my hometown.


Rather, DL hasn't yet pulled down the full schedule of flights for July. Anything currently showing in the schedules for June or later (and maybe even late May, for that matter) is likely to be drawn down further in the coming weeks. DL had the June and July schedules almost finalized just before the lockdowns started and demand fell off a cliff, so until they get around to updating them they'll reflect DL's demand projections from pre-COVID-19.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8146
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:10 am

freakyrat wrote:
Hoping for the Best Delta has already scheduled the full complement of flights for July in my hometown.

The July schedule isn't anywhere near reflective of what may actually be flown at this point. The only thing the July schedule shows is what was esssentially loaded last year and as the default summer schedule pre-covid.

DL basically loaded most of its revised May schedule over this past weekend and there will certainly be more updates made this upcoming weekend.
They have not made any changes yet to June or beyond but they most certainly will come.
There is a good possibility the June schedule will look a lot like whatever is being flown in May, and optimistically maybe a slight uptick in capacity and flights over next month, but that won't even be really known until another 3-4 weeks.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8146
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:18 am

This "pent-up" demand is also myth. There isn't suddenly going to be this massive surge or resumption in air travel.

Borders are closed and going to be closed for some period of time and reopening at various rates and capacities on a case-by-case basis
Many of the reasons and drivers for travel are not relevant for the summer - concerts, sporting events, festivals, mass gatherings, are all being canceled for the summer. People aren't going to want to spend money for big ticket international trips if cultural/historical/entertainment venues are closed, or risk quarenteen, or real and perceived travel; they will deffer their travel.
Businesses are going to be risk-adverse and financially adverse. Yes operational required travel will resume, but anything quasi-discretionary is going to be curtained. Most corporate training, conferences, trade shows are all cancelled for the forseeable future.
Even domestic summer vacations are going to be down significantly due to either perceived risks, financial reasons, or practical matters for traveling by personal vehicle or staying closer to home. Vacations to large urban centers are likely going to be way down for the next several months.

There isn't going to be pent-up demand until at least 2021. The rest of 2020 is completely trashed, suppressed, and a pure dumpster fire for global air travel to the likes we have never seen before.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6193
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:24 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
This "pent-up" demand is also myth. There isn't suddenly going to be this massive surge or resumption in air travel.

Borders are closed and going to be closed for some period of time and reopening at various rates and capacities on a case-by-case basis
Many of the reasons and drivers for travel are not relevant for the summer - concerts, sporting events, festivals, mass gatherings, are all being canceled for the summer. People aren't going to want to spend money for big ticket international trips if cultural/historical/entertainment venues are closed, or risk quarenteen, or real and perceived travel; they will deffer their travel.
Businesses are going to be risk-adverse and financially adverse. Yes operational required travel will resume, but anything quasi-discretionary is going to be curtained. Most corporate training, conferences, trade shows are all cancelled for the forseeable future.
Even domestic summer vacations are going to be down significantly due to either perceived risks, financial reasons, or practical matters for traveling by personal vehicle or staying closer to home. Vacations to large urban centers are likely going to be way down for the next several months.

There isn't going to be pent-up demand until at least 2021. The rest of 2020 is completely trashed, suppressed, and a pure dumpster fire for global air travel to the likes we have never seen before.


While I agree with most of what you wrote, pent up demand is not a myth. I study and consult on that for a living and regardless of situation, when travel is suppressed, upon return there is a boost in demand. I don’t think it will resemble 2019 in any way, but it will be there.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
hsuthe19
Posts: 24
Joined: Sun Oct 06, 2019 3:22 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:10 am

PANAMsterdam wrote:
AEROFAN wrote:
This doom and gloom and panic and sky is falling is overblown and not proportional to reality. Once a vaccine comes out in a few months, businesses will re open and new opportunities will arise.


Quick history lesson: The quickest vaccine ever to be developed was the mumps vaccine. Development time: 4 years.

So no, there probably won't be a COVID19 vaccine 'in a few months'. And even if by a miracle there would be vaccine by say December, it is going to take months if not years for those vaccines to have been produced, distributed and of course given to billions of people. We don't even know if one shot of the vaccine will be enough and how long it will take before you are immune.

Example: A vaccine to prevent Hepatitis B consists of three injections. You get the first injection today, the second injection next month and the third one five months after the second and only then you are protected and is the vaccine effective.

So COVID19 is indeed a long lasting health crisis, we haven't even discussed the mental health consequences of the virus. We all know the stories of passengers doing crazy things, forcing a pilot to divert. How are people going to react when somebody coughs or sneezes onboard?

So, to go back on topic, all airlines will come out of this as a smaller airline. It is only logical to start small again, dumping too much capacity onto the market has proven over and over again to be a recipe for disaster: Braniff, WOW, Primera, Norwegian just to name a few.


The Mumps Vaccine was created in 1967. It became recommended in 1977 for widespread usage. Surely by now, technology will speed up the process for a vaccine?

tphuang wrote:
In that case, then DL either get them there through ICN or DL has to start flying to SYD on its own metal.

At some point, DL needs to take a look at JVs and figure out what to do with all its partners in trouble. I'm assuming DL will get through with gov't help even if they might have to file chapter 11. But let's look at their JV partners.

VS - good chance British gov't will let it go under. Then what is DL going to do with its 11? slots at LHR. Get more slots from AF/KL? Flying to LGW? Probably their biggest headache.

AF/KL - probably will do fine long term even if they have to suffer for a few years. French and Dutch gov't aren't going to let their flag carrier die off.

KE - Probably will also survive, but I expect a lot of cuts for the coming few years.

VA - combined with VA dying off basically, what is DL's TPAC strategy? Now, they are far and away the weakest to Oceania and really weak to south east asia and hong kong. Not a big problem for midwest where the dominate, but huge problem for their NY/LA ff base.

WS - likely big reduction in their transborder capacity for a while. I'm assuming JV still goes ahead, but does WS survive this with oil price at an all time low and Alberta oil industry likely to be decimated for a few years. Won't be surprised if WS doesn't make it through this.

AM - Another big question here. Although to be fair, I don't think Mexican gov't will let AM go under.

LA - How big is LA after this? Another airline that seems like it will shrink its international profile by quite a bit. And this summer for us will be winter for them, which is bad news for slowing down COVID.

All this JV strategies seem like a brilliant idea back then, but they are going to lose a lot from their ownership strategy.

Compare this to AA, BA, QF, JL, CZ and CX will not be left to go under.

Or UA, LH, AC, NH, CA will all survive this, although AV/CM will probably get downsized even more.

If UA took a $1 billion hit on its investments. What will DL's hit on its investment be?


I think Delta made a mistake investing in all these airlines. Hopefully they can improvise themselves out of this one.
 
PANAMsterdam
Posts: 268
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:41 am

hsuthe19 wrote:

The Mumps Vaccine was created in 1967. It became recommended in 1977 for widespread usage. Surely by now, technology will speed up the process for a vaccine?




It could help, but don't expect wonders. The V in HIV stands for Virus, and we still don't have a cure for that disease even though scientists are researching it for decades.

There are still a lot of unknowns to COVID19, i read an article about doctors not understanding why patients are suddenly getting kidney problems. Also, why are perfectly healthy young men and women suddenly dying of the virus while other 90+ year olds are not? COVID19 has a lot of unknowns, rushing a poorly tested vaccine could do more harm than good.

Okay. Sorry Mods, I'll go back on topic now :airplane: :D
Every country has an airline. The world has Pan Am.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5357
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:11 pm

Delta loaded a significant amount of TATL changes this morning I believe
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4318
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:32 pm

There is no vaccine for HIV, but the current treatment (3 antivirals taken by mouth) seem to provide a cure, albeit, only so long as the medicine is continued. Incidentally almost everything we know about antivirals comes from that intensive effort to treat HIV.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
gsg013
Posts: 568
Joined: Wed Feb 15, 2017 4:03 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:27 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Delta loaded a significant amount of TATL changes this morning I believe


Can you elaborate how far out those changes have been made? I have a trip in September going BNA-ATL-AMS-ZUR-JFK-BNA. I wonder how we are expecting transatlantic to be in September... its possible it's too far out to know at this point.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2045
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:46 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
There is no vaccine for HIV, but the current treatment (3 antivirals taken by mouth) seem to provide a cure, albeit, only so long as the medicine is continued. Incidentally almost everything we know about antivirals comes from that intensive effort to treat HIV.


Remdesivir an anti-viral drug for HIV seems to be working against this virus. We still do not know if this virus will go the way that SARS did. It could. If that happens and a lot of pent up demand for vacations etc. Airlines like Delta will respiond with the corresponding number of flights to meet demand.
 
freakyrat
Posts: 2045
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:04 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:51 pm

FSDan wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
Delta has already scheduled the full complement of flights for July in my hometown.


Rather, DL hasn't yet pulled down the full schedule of flights for July. Anything currently showing in the schedules for June or later (and maybe even late May, for that matter) is likely to be drawn down further in the coming weeks. DL had the June and July schedules almost finalized just before the lockdowns started and demand fell off a cliff, so until they get around to updating them they'll reflect DL's demand projections from pre-COVID-19.


Thank's We presently have lost all ATL and MSP flights and only have 2 dailys to DTW. We'll see where we are in late May or early June on this thing. If this virus settles down and people feel more comfortable in travelling maybe we would get 1 of the ATL flights back.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8256
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:50 pm

Planespotters.net - maybe not a perfect database, but useful - has expanded to show what's parked, as well as in-service and retired. Highlights of the parkings shwoing at the moment:

16 of 16 753s; CASM has Seat in the acronym; if you can't fill anywhere near the seat count, lowest narrowbody CASM doesn't matter

21 of 21 764s

62 of 62 A320s (I guess they'd rather run 738s, MD-88s and MD-90s in the midsize narrowbody category)

10 of 11 332s

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Delta-Air-Lines
 
WA707atMSP
Posts: 1912
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2006 8:16 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:26 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Planespotters.net - maybe not a perfect database, but useful - has expanded to show what's parked, as well as in-service and retired. Highlights of the parkings shwoing at the moment:

16 of 16 753s; CASM has Seat in the acronym; if you can't fill anywhere near the seat count, lowest narrowbody CASM doesn't matter

21 of 21 764s

62 of 62 A320s (I guess they'd rather run 738s, MD-88s and MD-90s in the midsize narrowbody category)

10 of 11 332s

https://www.planespotters.net/airline/Delta-Air-Lines


Thanks for this information. Despite what some people here have said, I'd be very surprised if many of DL's A320s come back post crisis. The oldest A320s are approaching 30 years old, about the same age as the MD-80s are, and several years older than the 737-800s. Maybe DL will keep the A320s that were delivered to NW around the turn of the century, but the 1991-92 era A320s are another matter.
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:38 pm

freakyrat wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
There is no vaccine for HIV, but the current treatment (3 antivirals taken by mouth) seem to provide a cure, albeit, only so long as the medicine is continued. Incidentally almost everything we know about antivirals comes from that intensive effort to treat HIV.


Remdesivir an anti-viral drug for HIV seems to be working against this virus. We still do not know if this virus will go the way that SARS did. It could. If that happens and a lot of pent up demand for vacations etc. Airlines like Delta will respiond with the corresponding number of flights to meet demand.


It’s possible but unlikely. SARS underwent a small mutation which more or less completely took away its a likely to transmit from person to person. SARS didn’t have a very big R0 prior to that mutation so even if this virus underwent a similar mutation it would likely only spread slightly less easier, not just vanish completely
 
winginit
Posts: 2931
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:43 pm

freakyrat wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
There is no vaccine for HIV, but the current treatment (3 antivirals taken by mouth) seem to provide a cure, albeit, only so long as the medicine is continued. Incidentally almost everything we know about antivirals comes from that intensive effort to treat HIV.


Remdesivir an anti-viral drug for HIV seems to be working against this virus. We still do not know if this virus will go the way that SARS did. It could. If that happens and a lot of pent up demand for vacations etc. Airlines like Delta will respiond with the corresponding number of flights to meet demand.


I'm still scratching my head over this notion of pent up vacation demand depending on the timeline you're referring to. Even if the whole world were to open up say tomorrow and there is a pool of people who are keen to get out of the house and go on vacation, that pool is significantly smaller than it was previously on account of mass unemployment and wage loss. Not only that, but the fear of a resurgence of the virus will be perpetual until we have a vaccine, and that fear will likely either keep people home or keep watchful eyes on purse strings.

AEROFAN wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
To start to recover, we dont need a vaccine. The vaccine can be a nail in the coffin to the virus.

What we need is a treatment. A set of drugs that can put this virus in check. If we can get that, things can start to come to life again. That shouldnt take anywhere near a year. Hopefully just 2-3 more months.

And once this treatment is announced it will be back to business as people will think it is contained and believe even more that it's just another flu. Once this happens I am confident that people who have been cooped up for two months will hit the road with a vengeance. Airlines just need to hold on for another few months.


I haven't heard one, not one medical professional voice the possibility of game-changing treatment being available in a few months time. A few months to come up with something that might work? Sure. But production and distribution would tack months and months onto that timeline. Even once that materializes, as I mentioned above, the notion of pent up travel demand is deeply flawed as you're hearing from travel executives all over the world.

This is going to be a slow recovery when it comes to commercial aviation, and we're going to see tens of thousands of layoffs come October. full stop.
 
panamair
Posts: 4343
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2001 2:24 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:20 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Delta loaded a significant amount of TATL changes this morning I believe


Thanks for the heads up...looks like all the seasonal stuff (except for ATH) is gone as are the new(er) routes:
From what I can see, all the following have been cut for the whole summer so far:
JFK-NCE, VCE, TXL, CPH, KEF, PRG, GLA, SNN
ATL-VCE, MXP, ZRH, MAD, BCN
BOS-LIS, EDI, LGW, MAN, FCO
DTW-MUC, FCO
CDG-IND, SLC
AMS-TPA, MCO
LHR-PDX, SLC
 
onwFan
Topic Author
Posts: 468
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:35 pm

panamair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Delta loaded a significant amount of TATL changes this morning I believe


Thanks for the heads up...looks like all the seasonal stuff (except for ATH) is gone as are the new(er) routes:
From what I can see, all the following have been cut for the whole summer so far:
JFK-NCE, VCE, TXL, CPH, KEF, PRG, GLA, SNN
ATL-VCE, MXP, ZRH, MAD, BCN
BOS-LIS, EDI, LGW, MAN, FCO
DTW-MUC, FCO
CDG-IND, SLC
AMS-TPA, MCO
LHR-PDX, SLC

I would be surprised if LHR-PDX returns next year. This was bound to go whether there was covid or not.
 
jagraham
Posts: 1131
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:05 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:
AEROFAN wrote:
This doom and gloom and panic and sky is falling is overblown and not proportional to reality. Once a vaccine comes out in a few months, businesses will re open and new opportunities will arise.


Quick history lesson: The quickest vaccine ever to be developed was the mumps vaccine. Development time: 4 years.

So no, there probably won't be a COVID19 vaccine 'in a few months'. And even if by a miracle there would be vaccine by say December, it is going to take months if not years for those vaccines to have been produced, distributed and of course given to billions of people. We don't even know if one shot of the vaccine will be enough and how long it will take before you are immune.

Example: A vaccine to prevent Hepatitis B consists of three injections. You get the first injection today, the second injection next month and the third one five months after the second and only then you are protected and is the vaccine effective.

So COVID19 is indeed a long lasting health crisis, we haven't even discussed the mental health consequences of the virus. We all know the stories of passengers doing crazy things, forcing a pilot to divert. How are people going to react when somebody coughs or sneezes onboard?

So, to go back on topic, all airlines will come out of this as a smaller airline. It is only logical to start small again, dumping too much capacity onto the market has proven over and over again to be a recipe for disaster: Braniff, WOW, Primera, Norwegian just to name a few.


To start to recover, we dont need a vaccine. The vaccine can be a nail in the coffin to the virus.

What we need is a treatment. A set of drugs that can put this virus in check. If we can get that, things can start to come to life again. That shouldnt take anywhere near a year. Hopefully just 2-3 more months.


At University of Chicago Hospital, 123 of 125 patients given remdisivir (most on ventilators) were recovered and discharged within a week https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/ear ... treatment/. Only 2 patients in the trial died. Gilead has increased the overall trial to 6000 patients from 2500.

I hope the government will put aside its usual mumbling and caution, since remdisivir has already proven to be far more effective than ventilators. This treatment should become routine for all on ventilators by the end of May. I hope.

And if so, by June or July, anybody with coronavirus would be given remdisivir and monitored on an outpatient basis. All social distancing would not cease since most of the world has not been exposed to coronavirus. But shelter in place could be lifted. Businesses could reopen with social distancing restrictions. Travel could resume with some mandatory empty seats on the plane.

As noted, true normal will not return for a year or more. Many businesses will not survive this time frame. Many households will be devestated. The new normal will be quite different from what we had at the beginning of the year. But if there is a normal, some businesses will adjust, and life will go on. At a smaller global rate.
 
User avatar
OA412
Moderator
Posts: 4788
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2000 6:22 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:06 pm

tphuang wrote:

Compare this to AA, BA, QF, JL, CZ and CX will not be left to go under.

Or UA, LH, AC, NH, CA will all survive this, although AV/CM will probably get downsized even more.

AF, KL, KE, and AM aren't going to be allowed to go under. And if any of those 4 collapse, you best believe things will have gotten so bad that one or more of the Star and Oneworld carriers you've listed will also collapse. If this drags on, all 3 of the US3 are likely to file Ch.11, not just DL. I'm afraid you're painting a far too doom and gloom picture of what DL looks like after this, and a far too rosy picture of what AA and UA will look like.
Hughes Airwest - Top Banana In The West
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8146
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:23 pm

panamair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Delta loaded a significant amount of TATL changes this morning I believe


Thanks for the heads up...looks like all the seasonal stuff (except for ATH) is gone as are the new(er) routes:
From what I can see, all the following have been cut for the whole summer so far:
JFK-NCE, VCE, TXL, CPH, KEF, PRG, GLA, SNN
ATL-VCE, MXP, ZRH, MAD, BCN
BOS-LIS, EDI, LGW, MAN, FCO
DTW-MUC, FCO
CDG-IND, SLC
AMS-TPA, MCO
LHR-PDX, SLC

Makes sense.....rebuilding is going to start from core hub - core hub flights and add frequency and branch out from there.

ATL, MSP, DTW, JFK, BOS, LAX - AMS, CDG, LHR will be the start point to build from before secondary gateways on either side of the Atlantic return
 
tphuang
Posts: 5318
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:36 pm

OA412 wrote:
tphuang wrote:

Compare this to AA, BA, QF, JL, CZ and CX will not be left to go under.

Or UA, LH, AC, NH, CA will all survive this, although AV/CM will probably get downsized even more.

AF, KL, KE, and AM aren't going to be allowed to go under. And if any of those 4 collapse, you best believe things will have gotten so bad that one or more of the Star and Oneworld carriers you've listed will also collapse. If this drags on, all 3 of the US3 are likely to file Ch.11, not just DL. I'm afraid you're painting a far too doom and gloom picture of what DL looks like after this, and a far too rosy picture of what AA and UA will look like.


well, I did say those 4 national airlines won't be allowed to go under.

But in the overall scheme of things, VA won't be the same even if comes out of the ashes. And VS looks like it will suffer the same fate. And I would say WS is not exactly safe either. I don't see any of AA/UA partners in the same shaky ground as the virgin airlines. And DL has invested more in airlines than UA/AA, so it's definitely going to report larger losses from investments this year.

I've stated in numerous places that I think AA is on the shakiest ground of any domestic airlines. So this was simply about the JV partners.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:53 pm

onwFan wrote:
panamair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Delta loaded a significant amount of TATL changes this morning I believe


Thanks for the heads up...looks like all the seasonal stuff (except for ATH) is gone as are the new(er) routes:
From what I can see, all the following have been cut for the whole summer so far:
JFK-NCE, VCE, TXL, CPH, KEF, PRG, GLA, SNN
ATL-VCE, MXP, ZRH, MAD, BCN
BOS-LIS, EDI, LGW, MAN, FCO
DTW-MUC, FCO
CDG-IND, SLC
AMS-TPA, MCO
LHR-PDX, SLC

I would be surprised if LHR-PDX returns next year. This was bound to go whether there was covid or not.


I could see it going either way. It probably depends on what VS looks like six months to a year from now, if they're still around. If VS goes down and DL isn't able to somehow acquire a bunch of their LHR slots, they'll need to reallocate some of their LHR flying to shore up JFK-LHR in particular. In that scenario I strongly suspect both PDX-LHR and SLC-LHR would go away, as well as the second daily DTW-LHR, at a minimum. If DL decides to retire more than a handful of their 763s, that could also play into this.

On the other hand, if VS is still around and travel is picking back up, DL may well decide to stick in the market. It had obviously performed well enough last year that DL was planning on upgauging it this year. Additionally, with BA retiring aircraft, I'd guess PDX-LHR will be one of the first routes on the chopping block for them, as it was one of the latest added.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 279
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:16 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
This "pent-up" demand is also myth. There isn't suddenly going to be this massive surge or resumption in air travel.

Borders are closed and going to be closed for some period of time and reopening at various rates and capacities on a case-by-case basis
Many of the reasons and drivers for travel are not relevant for the summer - concerts, sporting events, festivals, mass gatherings, are all being canceled for the summer. People aren't going to want to spend money for big ticket international trips if cultural/historical/entertainment venues are closed, or risk quarenteen, or real and perceived travel; they will deffer their travel.
Businesses are going to be risk-adverse and financially adverse. Yes operational required travel will resume, but anything quasi-discretionary is going to be curtained. Most corporate training, conferences, trade shows are all cancelled for the forseeable future.
Even domestic summer vacations are going to be down significantly due to either perceived risks, financial reasons, or practical matters for traveling by personal vehicle or staying closer to home. Vacations to large urban centers are likely going to be way down for the next several months.

There isn't going to be pent-up demand until at least 2021. The rest of 2020 is completely trashed, suppressed, and a pure dumpster fire for global air travel to the likes we have never seen before.


While I agree with most of what you wrote, pent up demand is not a myth. I study and consult on that for a living and regardless of situation, when travel is suppressed, upon return there is a boost in demand. I don’t think it will resemble 2019 in any way, but it will be there.


The problem is that the virus isn’t going to disappear. Most businesses plan to enforce social distancing when they reopen, and are canceling large gatherings/events and restricting business travel to essential needs only. This is a problem — the legacy airlines operate a model in which a small group of passengers contributes the lions share of revenues. If DL isn’t selling $1,200 tickets from Indianapolis to Charleston through Atlanta, it’s going to impede on its ability to offer cheap fares to Florida from IND and CHS, since the cheap fare bucks are essentially “gravy” revenue.

Secondly, the threat of the virus will dissuade millions of people from traveling to crowded places like Disney World, Las Vegas, etc.

Thirdly, most people have suffered a significant loss in income, which is a problem in a nation in which two-thirds of households didn’t have enough savings to sustain a $400 emergency. Millions of households have defaulted on their payment obligations as it is; lines at food banks in major cities are stretching several miles long. I had multiple boxes totaling over 150 lbs. (!!) of toiletries my wife hoarded over the years, and I had desperately tried to get rid of them. Nobody wanted them because they were trial size. While, last week, multiple organizations reached out begging for them, so we split them up. Times are tough, and it’s going to take awhile for people to rebuild their finances.

Fourthly, millions of people will be permanently out of a job, and many will have to settle for a new one that pays less. And many of people that are fortunate to have maintained their employment have taken a pay cut, or will not receive a bonus for this year. And the number of people impacted will continue to grow. It’ll be awhile before we reach rock bottom.

So yes, I agree there’s pent up demand to travel. But much of it will be in the family car, driving across several states to grandma’s house. And much of the rest will be temporary. The number of low fares offered will be more limited, and airlines aren’t going to offer increased capacity for value driven traffic.

Alas, it’ll be awhile before things get better. I wouldn’t be surprised if 2019 levels aren’t replicated until 2023 at the earliest.
 
onwFan
Topic Author
Posts: 468
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:18 pm

FSDan wrote:
onwFan wrote:
panamair wrote:

Thanks for the heads up...looks like all the seasonal stuff (except for ATH) is gone as are the new(er) routes:
From what I can see, all the following have been cut for the whole summer so far:
JFK-NCE, VCE, TXL, CPH, KEF, PRG, GLA, SNN
ATL-VCE, MXP, ZRH, MAD, BCN
BOS-LIS, EDI, LGW, MAN, FCO
DTW-MUC, FCO
CDG-IND, SLC
AMS-TPA, MCO
LHR-PDX, SLC

I would be surprised if LHR-PDX returns next year. This was bound to go whether there was covid or not.


I could see it going either way. It probably depends on what VS looks like six months to a year from now, if they're still around. If VS goes down and DL isn't able to somehow acquire a bunch of their LHR slots, they'll need to reallocate some of their LHR flying to shore up JFK-LHR in particular. In that scenario I strongly suspect both PDX-LHR and SLC-LHR would go away, as well as the second daily DTW-LHR, at a minimum. If DL decides to retire more than a handful of their 763s, that could also play into this.

On the other hand, if VS is still around and travel is picking back up, DL may well decide to stick in the market. It had obviously performed well enough last year that DL was planning on upgauging it this year. Additionally, with BA retiring aircraft, I'd guess PDX-LHR will be one of the first routes on the chopping block for them, as it was one of the latest added.

My hunch is that if this route is to relaunch only in a post covid world, BA seems to be the likely contender given feed on both ends vs DL without feed at either end.
 
tjerome
Posts: 347
Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2016 3:03 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:32 pm

panamair wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Delta loaded a significant amount of TATL changes this morning I believe


Thanks for the heads up...looks like all the seasonal stuff (except for ATH) is gone as are the new(er) routes:
From what I can see, all the following have been cut for the whole summer so far:
JFK-NCE, VCE, TXL, CPH, KEF, PRG, GLA, SNN
ATL-VCE, MXP, ZRH, MAD, BCN
BOS-LIS, EDI, LGW, MAN, FCO
DTW-MUC, FCO
CDG-IND, SLC
AMS-TPA, MCO
LHR-PDX, SLC


They are pulling ATL-FCO as well.

Looks like only DL metal going to Italy this summer will be JFK-FCO/MXP.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:46 pm

onwFan wrote:
FSDan wrote:
onwFan wrote:
I would be surprised if LHR-PDX returns next year. This was bound to go whether there was covid or not.


I could see it going either way. It probably depends on what VS looks like six months to a year from now, if they're still around. If VS goes down and DL isn't able to somehow acquire a bunch of their LHR slots, they'll need to reallocate some of their LHR flying to shore up JFK-LHR in particular. In that scenario I strongly suspect both PDX-LHR and SLC-LHR would go away, as well as the second daily DTW-LHR, at a minimum. If DL decides to retire more than a handful of their 763s, that could also play into this.

On the other hand, if VS is still around and travel is picking back up, DL may well decide to stick in the market. It had obviously performed well enough last year that DL was planning on upgauging it this year. Additionally, with BA retiring aircraft, I'd guess PDX-LHR will be one of the first routes on the chopping block for them, as it was one of the latest added.

My hunch is that if this route is to relaunch only in a post covid world, BA seems to be the likely contender given feed on both ends vs DL without feed at either end.


I think for both airlines it's likely to depend on fleet constraints and the opportunity costs of using limited resources to fly other routes. If DL decides that the post-COVID-19 O&D demand isn't sufficient anymore to sustain their ops, and BA decides they need to allocate their 788 fleet to cover other routes previously flown by larger/more premium aircraft, the route could revert to being unserved and people will need to connect through SEA/YVR, etc.

And I do still think VS could be a deciding factor for DL. If VS goes away the decision to cut PDX-LHR becomes easy - move the LHR slot to cover SEA or to beef up JFK. If VS makes it through this, DL still has to use all their LHR slots and PDX-LHR could continue to be one of their best options after their hubs.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4793
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:38 pm

AEROFAN wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:

Quick history lesson: The quickest vaccine ever to be developed was the mumps vaccine. Development time: 4 years.

So no, there probably won't be a COVID19 vaccine 'in a few months'. And even if by a miracle there would be vaccine by say December, it is going to take months if not years for those vaccines to have been produced, distributed and of course given to billions of people. We don't even know if one shot of the vaccine will be enough and how long it will take before you are immune.

Example: A vaccine to prevent Hepatitis B consists of three injections. You get the first injection today, the second injection next month and the third one five months after the second and only then you are protected and is the vaccine effective.

So COVID19 is indeed a long lasting health crisis, we haven't even discussed the mental health consequences of the virus. We all know the stories of passengers doing crazy things, forcing a pilot to divert. How are people going to react when somebody coughs or sneezes onboard?

So, to go back on topic, all airlines will come out of this as a smaller airline. It is only logical to start small again, dumping too much capacity onto the market has proven over and over again to be a recipe for disaster: Braniff, WOW, Primera, Norwegian just to name a few.


To start to recover, we dont need a vaccine. The vaccine can be a nail in the coffin to the virus.

What we need is a treatment. A set of drugs that can put this virus in check. If we can get that, things can start to come to life again. That shouldnt take anywhere near a year. Hopefully just 2-3 more months.

And once this treatment is announced it will be back to business as people will think it is contained and believe even more that it's just another flu. Once this happens I am confident that people who have been cooped up for two months will hit the road with a vengeance. Airlines just need to hold on for another few months.


2020 is done. It's way more than a few months. Companies cannot ask people to fly for business until they have a vaccine. They just won't it's not a good image and puts them in a legal position we have no precedent for. It's a liability thing. Random boss at large company says you have to go on business trip , employee gets covid-19 and gets really sick or dies. There is no way to know how that would end in a lawsuit. Vaccine not treatment will bring business travel back. The technology is so there for 90% of people who use to travel for business. It just wasn't socially acceptable , but it now is. My large company laid off all of our road warriors already or made them apply for other jobs. All company travel is banned for 2020 no exceptions. Most large companies already have that.

Leisure I do think will come back. But even before they fly , people will do road trips and rent RVs alot this summer, do day trips. Things to avoid planes, trains , amusements parks, cruises ,and movie theaters
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8146
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:06 am

Yeah, I just don't know how this whole business risk thing is going to play-out.
On one hand, you have employees in essential industries including some that are barely making more than minimum wage going to work every day.

Thus there is going to be some level of acceptable risk that is going to have to occur at some point but no one really knows where that line is at.

For example, there are elements of my job that do require me to travel to manufacturing facilities. Meetings are one thing but to physically review processes, equipment, tooling and such is impossible to do via video conference. When we do get back up and running I'm not sure what my desire to fly is going to be due to real and perceived risk, hassles, or just gutted flight schedules. In the past I would typically fly trips to places from DTW like IND, SDF, LEX, BNA, CID, PIT, MDT and I'm seriously thinking I may end up driving more of these this year. Its a pain, more time consuming but I think its going to be easier to get back on the road than back in the air in the eyes of my internal leadership and my clients.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6193
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:46 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
AEROFAN wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:

To start to recover, we dont need a vaccine. The vaccine can be a nail in the coffin to the virus.

What we need is a treatment. A set of drugs that can put this virus in check. If we can get that, things can start to come to life again. That shouldnt take anywhere near a year. Hopefully just 2-3 more months.

And once this treatment is announced it will be back to business as people will think it is contained and believe even more that it's just another flu. Once this happens I am confident that people who have been cooped up for two months will hit the road with a vengeance. Airlines just need to hold on for another few months.


2020 is done. It's way more than a few months. Companies cannot ask people to fly for business until they have a vaccine. They just won't it's not a good image and puts them in a legal position we have no precedent for. It's a liability thing. Random boss at large company says you have to go on business trip , employee gets covid-19 and gets really sick or dies. There is no way to know how that would end in a lawsuit. Vaccine not treatment will bring business travel back. The technology is so there for 90% of people who use to travel for business. It just wasn't socially acceptable , but it now is. My large company laid off all of our road warriors already or made them apply for other jobs. All company travel is banned for 2020 no exceptions. Most large companies already have that.

Leisure I do think will come back. But even before they fly , people will do road trips and rent RVs alot this summer, do day trips. Things to avoid planes, trains , amusements parks, cruises ,and movie theaters


I disagree. Once a solid treatment and antibody tests come out, that will be what starts to bring corporate travel back. It will take a vaccine to get it to 2019 levels though.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
onwFan
Topic Author
Posts: 468
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:48 am

Lootess wrote:
People who say JVs have been a mistake for Delta are just armchair CEOs not realizing they rode the smart strategy to being the most profitable airline in the world.
VS/VA shored up two large markets that the airline had been weak with before the merger to something of a seamless experience.

Yeah, what a smart strategy - Just look at how neatly those carriers have lined up in order for bankruptcy! Who's next?
 
mpdpilot
Posts: 807
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2006 6:44 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:18 am

So while Delta's investment in airlines might be gone, I think people are forgetting the benefits of not operating those JV flights.

Say demand is 50% of pre-COVID-19 for international travel and 60% for domestic, UA and AA will take a much larger hit having to do something with their shiny new international fleets. Sure AA has said that the 767 isn't coming back but that isn't the bulk of their international capacity. And they still have to deal with the employees that operate those aircraft and disposing of those aircraft whereas Delta does have to do anything to reduce transatlantic capacity, their partner did it for them. With that being said, I tend to doubt any big changes in where UA, AA, and DL are strong and weak will change much through all of this as it isn't like BA is going to suddenly dump AA, but we won't know how all this shakes out for years.

The best cure for uncertainty is flexibility and while Delta might not be the most flexible of the carriers, they are certainly in one of the most flexible positions, certainly more flexible than AA.

And another thing, people are talking about who will fly PDX-LHR in 2021, I would guess no one will be flying it as international demand is not going to be anywhere near 2019 levels. People are talking about if VS goes under DL will become weak in LHR, everyone will be weak if traffic is down even 20%.

This isn't going to be a situation where BA is suddenly going to grow by 5mil passengers at LHR because VS is gone, NOBODY is going to grow at LHR, or anywhere.

But lets assume for a moment that VS goes under. Certainly Delta could negotiate a sale of their slots? Or maybe even their aircraft? After all VS's fleet and assets don't just go poof.

For airlines the next 5 years will be like nothing they have every experienced. It is almost impossible to think about what airlines will look like in 5 years.

Delta for example is providing credits that are good for 2 years. You think they would do that if they thought 2021 would be anywhere close to 2019 traffic levels?

Airline travel is going to look very different for the foreseeable future, vaccine, treatment or otherwise. Deloitte has US Household wealth not recovering before 2025 and disposable income not recovering until late 2022.
One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
 
questions
Posts: 2337
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 4:51 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:21 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yeah, I just don't know how this whole business risk thing is going to play-out.
On one hand, you have employees in essential industries including some that are barely making more than minimum wage going to work every day.


One of the long term impacts of this pandemic in the US will be greater economic bifurcation. Those with money to spend will be more frugal, slowing down the recovery and impacting the airline industry. And until there is a vaccine, and like your example, folks will be looking for alternative ways that do not involve sitting shoulder to shoulder with strangers of unknown health.
 
WidebodyPTV
Posts: 279
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:06 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:12 am

DL's bleeding cash at a horrific rate, but is desperate to salvage what it tried to build at SEA. On the dates I'm looking at in May, there's no service from DTW, ATL or MSP to LAS; LAX & SLC have a single flight each... but SEA has two.

LAX772LR wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
I'd be very surprised if many of DL's A320s come back post crisis. The oldest A320s are approaching 30 years old, about the same age as the MD-80s are

While I'm not necessarily refuting that notion, keep in mind that there's so many more factors that go into determining that, beyond just temporal age.


35 of NW's original 50 A320 deliveries are still active (at this point, at least). These aircraft were built in 1990 (1x), 1991 (4x), 1992 (20x) and 1993 (10x). An additional 20 aircraft were delivered in 1998 (13x) and 1999 (7x), and seven more were delivered in 2001 (3x), 2002 (2x) and 2003 (2x). While I agree some of the 320 will be permanently parked, I suspect most will return to service. Nearly 200 A220 and A321 were scheduled for delivery over the next 5 years, but that timeframe will be pushed back significantly. Coupled with MD-88, MD-90, B757 and probably B717 retirements, DL will need the capacity.

mpdpilot wrote:
SoDelta for example is providing credits that are good for 2 years. You think they would do that if they thought 2021 would be anywhere close to 2019 traffic levels?

Airline travel is going to look very different for the foreseeable future, vaccine, treatment or otherwise. Deloitte has US Household wealth not recovering before 2025 and disposable income not recovering until late 2022.


Everybody wants to talk about recovery, but it'll be awhile before we even reach the bottom. Sure, people will go back to work, but the actual fallout hasn't even begun; corporate bankruptcies are expected to reach an unprecedented level, and it's going to have a rippling effect. It took 4-5 years for most business airports to reach their pre-Great Recession local traffic levels, and 7 years for vacation airports like LAS, MCO, etc. Many a.net users are still in denial, and believe their hometown/favorite airport will fully recover within a year, when in actuality, it'll probably take at least 3, and longer for places like LAS, MCO, etc.
 
Ciel
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:00 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:24 pm

onwFan wrote:
Lootess wrote:
People who say JVs have been a mistake for Delta are just armchair CEOs not realizing they rode the smart strategy to being the most profitable airline in the world.
VS/VA shored up two large markets that the airline had been weak with before the merger to something of a seamless experience.

Yeah, what a smart strategy - Just look at how neatly those carriers have lined up in order for bankruptcy! Who's next?


Not many people (this is an euphemism) would have predicted such a catastrophic scenario like this to happen a few months ago.

Aside from VA/VS, I don't see other SkyTeam airlines to be in the process of bankruptcy, for the moment. Moreover, Delta doesn't own any shares in Virgin Australia. The latter would still be a substantial loss for DL I must confess.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8256
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:44 pm

DL may be talking to ALPA, talking to Boeing, running some numbers... but it denies it has made a decision to accelerate type retirement for anything other than the MD-88s. From today's 10-Q filing:

As part of our capacity reductions related to the negative effect on our business from the COVID-19 pandemic, we have removed approximately 400 aircraft
from active service and plan to park another approximately 250 aircraft during the June 2020 quarter. These aircraft are being temporarily parked, with the
exception of the MD-88 fleet discussed above for which an impairment charge of $22 million was recorded, and we have not yet decided to accelerate the
retirement of any other fleet.


Yes, not even the MD-90s.

DL's 10-Q for 1Q2020: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/C ... 1de63e.pdf
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4318
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:27 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yeah, I just don't know how this whole business risk thing is going to play-out.
On one hand, you have employees in essential industries including some that are barely making more than minimum wage going to work every day.

Thus there is going to be some level of acceptable risk that is going to have to occur at some point but no one really knows where that line is at.

For example, there are elements of my job that do require me to travel to manufacturing facilities. Meetings are one thing but to physically review processes, equipment, tooling and such is impossible to do via video conference. When we do get back up and running I'm not sure what my desire to fly is going to be due to real and perceived risk, hassles, or just gutted flight schedules. In the past I would typically fly trips to places from DTW like IND, SDF, LEX, BNA, CID, PIT, MDT and I'm seriously thinking I may end up driving more of these this year. Its a pain, more time consuming but I think its going to be easier to get back on the road than back in the air in the eyes of my internal leadership and my clients.


Given the cost of flying even in the old days, one solution would be a chauffeur. Paid well, also a 'your man Friday'. It might even be cheaper than all that flying,buy a comfortable commodious car, semi-office in the back. He also handles all the hassle.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6193
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:37 pm

WidebodyPTV wrote:
DL's bleeding cash at a horrific rate, but is desperate to salvage what it tried to build at SEA. On the dates I'm looking at in May, there's no service from DTW, ATL or MSP to LAS; LAX & SLC have a single flight each... but SEA has two.

LAX772LR wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
I'd be very surprised if many of DL's A320s come back post crisis. The oldest A320s are approaching 30 years old, about the same age as the MD-80s are

While I'm not necessarily refuting that notion, keep in mind that there's so many more factors that go into determining that, beyond just temporal age.


35 of NW's original 50 A320 deliveries are still active (at this point, at least). These aircraft were built in 1990 (1x), 1991 (4x), 1992 (20x) and 1993 (10x). An additional 20 aircraft were delivered in 1998 (13x) and 1999 (7x), and seven more were delivered in 2001 (3x), 2002 (2x) and 2003 (2x). While I agree some of the 320 will be permanently parked, I suspect most will return to service. Nearly 200 A220 and A321 were scheduled for delivery over the next 5 years, but that timeframe will be pushed back significantly. Coupled with MD-88, MD-90, B757 and probably B717 retirements, DL will need the capacity.

mpdpilot wrote:
SoDelta for example is providing credits that are good for 2 years. You think they would do that if they thought 2021 would be anywhere close to 2019 traffic levels?

Airline travel is going to look very different for the foreseeable future, vaccine, treatment or otherwise. Deloitte has US Household wealth not recovering before 2025 and disposable income not recovering until late 2022.


Everybody wants to talk about recovery, but it'll be awhile before we even reach the bottom. Sure, people will go back to work, but the actual fallout hasn't even begun; corporate bankruptcies are expected to reach an unprecedented level, and it's going to have a rippling effect. It took 4-5 years for most business airports to reach their pre-Great Recession local traffic levels, and 7 years for vacation airports like LAS, MCO, etc. Many a.net users are still in denial, and believe their hometown/favorite airport will fully recover within a year, when in actuality, it'll probably take at least 3, and longer for places like LAS, MCO, etc.


If you’re talking about 2019, levels then yes I agree.

But what we need to start is simply for people to even start flying again. That will only happen when viable treatment becomes available and antibody tests are widely used.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
Lootess
Posts: 489
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:41 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
DL may be talking to ALPA, talking to Boeing, running some numbers... but it denies it has made a decision to accelerate type retirement for anything other than the MD-88s. From today's 10-Q filing:

As part of our capacity reductions related to the negative effect on our business from the COVID-19 pandemic, we have removed approximately 400 aircraft
from active service and plan to park another approximately 250 aircraft during the June 2020 quarter. These aircraft are being temporarily parked, with the
exception of the MD-88 fleet discussed above for which an impairment charge of $22 million was recorded, and we have not yet decided to accelerate the
retirement of any other fleet.


Yes, not even the MD-90s.

DL's 10-Q for 1Q2020: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/C ... 1de63e.pdf


There is only 9 active MD-90s, yeah sure. The majority that were planned to be ran for a few more years are at BYH ready to be taken apart.
 
bravoindia
Posts: 219
Joined: Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:07 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:50 pm

AEROFAN wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:

Quick history lesson: The quickest vaccine ever to be developed was the mumps vaccine. Development time: 4 years.

So no, there probably won't be a COVID19 vaccine 'in a few months'. And even if by a miracle there would be vaccine by say December, it is going to take months if not years for those vaccines to have been produced, distributed and of course given to billions of people. We don't even know if one shot of the vaccine will be enough and how long it will take before you are immune.

Example: A vaccine to prevent Hepatitis B consists of three injections. You get the first injection today, the second injection next month and the third one five months after the second and only then you are protected and is the vaccine effective.

So COVID19 is indeed a long lasting health crisis, we haven't even discussed the mental health consequences of the virus. We all know the stories of passengers doing crazy things, forcing a pilot to divert. How are people going to react when somebody coughs or sneezes onboard?

So, to go back on topic, all airlines will come out of this as a smaller airline. It is only logical to start small again, dumping too much capacity onto the market has proven over and over again to be a recipe for disaster: Braniff, WOW, Primera, Norwegian just to name a few.


To start to recover, we dont need a vaccine. The vaccine can be a nail in the coffin to the virus.

What we need is a treatment. A set of drugs that can put this virus in check. If we can get that, things can start to come to life again. That shouldnt take anywhere near a year. Hopefully just 2-3 more months.

And once this treatment is announced it will be back to business as people will think it is contained and believe even more that it's just another flu. Once this happens I am confident that people who have been cooped up for two months will hit the road with a vengeance. Airlines just need to hold on for another few months.


Agree just a couple more months I do think it will come back of course there will be cuts and smaller carriers but I believe people want to get out and travel. Sometimes I wonder if my opinion is just in a hope that it gets back quicker than expected.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos