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CRJ200flyer
Posts: 149
Joined: Sun Sep 09, 2018 2:33 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu May 28, 2020 10:54 pm

AZORMP wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
AZORMP wrote:


I’m interested in what the fleet plan is going to look like over the next couple years as well, not just for mainline, but regional too. Delta’s been trying to dump the CRJ-200 for years and this might finally be the chance to do it. They’re old, uncomfortable, and had the reputation of being maintenance queens pre-COVID (a noticeable drop in the maintenance events since demand dropped and flight cycles have been reduced).

My personal opinion (I’m not well-versed in the economics so bear with me) is to dump the 200s, upgauge the “contract” 200 routes to 70 or 76 seat aircraft and upgauge the 70/76 seat routes to mainline DL. You eliminate an out of date fleet type while providing a more modern customer experience and reducing the average age of your fleet, which seems to be the goal for the “smaller” Delta, from what I understand.

What would be holding DL back from doing that?


Looking at where they regularly fly 200s now, it looks like a lot of small, isolated airports in places like Minnesota and Michigan that probably couldn't support daily 70+ seat aircraft. You might be able to make it work with tag flights, but the prospect of simultaneously pulling out of so many small airports at once would probably be a political liability.



The airports you’re talking about (PLN, MQT, ANP, CIU, etc.) are prorate/EAS stations. SkyWest (or whomever the carrier is) keeps all the revenue from those flights, whereas the major carrier is just the “booking agent”, so to speak.

I have no doubt that most of those stations will remain on the 200 but there are many other, larger, stations that are operated via contract with the regional carrier (FNT, MBS, AZO, LAN, for example) that regularly had 70/76 seat departures pre-COVID. This is how the schedules stand for September 7th:

AZO: 2x 700 departures (DTW)

FNT: 2x 900 departures (ATL)

MBS: 2x 900 departures (DTW)

LAN: 1x 900 departure (DTW)

I can’t speak for airports in MN because I’m not familiar with what is contract and what is EAS. However, I believe the non-EAS stations will eventually see an upgauge of equipment at some point, in conjunction with Delta’s goal of having a smaller and more modern fleet.


If you saw any route previously operated on an Endeavor 200, my understanding is we at Endeavor don’t fly any EAS routes, only SkyWest does. I don’t know how that will change in the future. I see at least 6 airports on my June schedule previously flown by SKW out of DTW that I’ll be flying to this month. All my routes but AZO, MBS, and TVC are outside of the state of Michigan.
 
kavok
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu May 28, 2020 11:02 pm

Going forward, my guess is that most of the remaining secondary European markets will mostly be concentrated from JFK. Geography works well, and if DL can use the downturn to gain a few more slots and gates in T4, the opportunity is prime to capitalize on JFK.

Probably a handful of industry driven flights will still remain from the mothership in ATL, but BOS will probably take the biggest hit coming out of this in terms of DL’s TATL capacity. If the demand is low, there is no need to have dual TATL hubs at both JFK and BOS.
Last edited by kavok on Thu May 28, 2020 11:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
AZORMP
Posts: 85
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu May 28, 2020 11:12 pm

CRJ200flyer wrote:
AZORMP wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:

Looking at where they regularly fly 200s now, it looks like a lot of small, isolated airports in places like Minnesota and Michigan that probably couldn't support daily 70+ seat aircraft. You might be able to make it work with tag flights, but the prospect of simultaneously pulling out of so many small airports at once would probably be a political liability.



The airports you’re talking about (PLN, MQT, ANP, CIU, etc.) are prorate/EAS stations. SkyWest (or whomever the carrier is) keeps all the revenue from those flights, whereas the major carrier is just the “booking agent”, so to speak.

I have no doubt that most of those stations will remain on the 200 but there are many other, larger, stations that are operated via contract with the regional carrier (FNT, MBS, AZO, LAN, for example) that regularly had 70/76 seat departures pre-COVID. This is how the schedules stand for September 7th:

AZO: 2x 700 departures (DTW)

FNT: 2x 900 departures (ATL)

MBS: 2x 900 departures (DTW)

LAN: 1x 900 departure (DTW)

I can’t speak for airports in MN because I’m not familiar with what is contract and what is EAS. However, I believe the non-EAS stations will eventually see an upgauge of equipment at some point, in conjunction with Delta’s goal of having a smaller and more modern fleet.


If you saw any route previously operated on an Endeavor 200, my understanding is we at Endeavor don’t fly any EAS routes, only SkyWest does. I don’t know how that will change in the future. I see at least 6 airports on my June schedule previously flown by SKW out of DTW that I’ll be flying to this month. All my routes but AZO, MBS, and TVC are outside of the state of Michigan.



When I mentioned different carriers, I didn’t mean just DL, as MQ operates the American flights to MQT. Apologies for the confusion. Is it just SkyWest that operates EAS nationwide?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu May 28, 2020 11:28 pm

CRJ200flyer wrote:
AZORMP wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:

Looking at where they regularly fly 200s now, it looks like a lot of small, isolated airports in places like Minnesota and Michigan that probably couldn't support daily 70+ seat aircraft. You might be able to make it work with tag flights, but the prospect of simultaneously pulling out of so many small airports at once would probably be a political liability.



The airports you’re talking about (PLN, MQT, ANP, CIU, etc.) are prorate/EAS stations. SkyWest (or whomever the carrier is) keeps all the revenue from those flights, whereas the major carrier is just the “booking agent”, so to speak.

I have no doubt that most of those stations will remain on the 200 but there are many other, larger, stations that are operated via contract with the regional carrier (FNT, MBS, AZO, LAN, for example) that regularly had 70/76 seat departures pre-COVID. This is how the schedules stand for September 7th:

AZO: 2x 700 departures (DTW)

FNT: 2x 900 departures (ATL)

MBS: 2x 900 departures (DTW)

LAN: 1x 900 departure (DTW)

I can’t speak for airports in MN because I’m not familiar with what is contract and what is EAS. However, I believe the non-EAS stations will eventually see an upgauge of equipment at some point, in conjunction with Delta’s goal of having a smaller and more modern fleet.


If you saw any route previously operated on an Endeavor 200, my understanding is we at Endeavor don’t fly any EAS routes, only SkyWest does. I don’t know how that will change in the future. I see at least 6 airports on my June schedule previously flown by SKW out of DTW that I’ll be flying to this month. All my routes but AZO, MBS, and TVC are outside of the state of Michigan.

The EAS stuff that was with Skywest CR2s is staying since the EAS contract resides with Skywest.
There are several non-EAS routes that were at-risk/pro-rate operated by Skywest including markets like SCE, ERI, AVP, ABE and a few others that appear to now being flown by 9E in June.
I suspect Skywest OO is ending the at-risk flying and/or that DL is moving some of that flying to 9E which is wholy-owned so its more of a soft dollar cost than hard dollar payment to Skywest.
 
Nola
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 12:05 am

There is definitely opportunity to reconfigure operations and to accelerate construction at SLC, LGA and LAX. With the reduced footprint needed for the next year or more, construction should move faster and be cheaper because whole sections can be torn down without having to deal with ongoing operations (LAX t3 for example). And DL talking about moving all operations at jfk to t4 and shutting down t2, even without the t4 expansion?
 
flyinghippo
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 3:03 am

I think outside of LHR, AMS, CDG, FCO, all other EU cities from the US will be on the chopping block and will not return until 2023 and beyond. With the exception of JFK, which will become the TATL hub for DL.

I can see JFK maintaining FRA and ZRH for it's finance clients, maybe MAD, but the rest are all in danger.
 
alfa164
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 3:18 am

flyinghippo wrote:
I think outside of LHR, AMS, CDG, FCO, all other EU cities from the US will be on the chopping block and will not return until 2023 and beyond. With the exception of JFK, which will become the TATL hub for DL.
I can see JFK maintaining FRA and ZRH for it's finance clients, maybe MAD, but the rest are all in danger.


I wonder if their contracts with MB and Porsche require or are based on having a non-stop to Stuttgart and/or Dusseldorf.
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FSDan
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 4:28 am

tphuang wrote:
kavok wrote:
Apparently the FAs were told that Delta plans to exit a number of their European stations permanently. The specific locations were not revealed, and no I don’t have a link to confirm what the FAs were told. But given that it was revealed en masse, somebody will likely be able to source that quote soon. Anyway, it looks like DL will be taking a step back on the number of TATL destinations served, and not just for this summer.


I would imagine LGW is an obvious one to exit since VS is leaving there. Maybe LIS, NCE, SNN and KEF also.


I'd agree with KEF, SNN, and LGW for sure. LIS and NCE I'd be a little less certain about, although you never know (and if LIS or NCE is in danger, I'd throw CPH, TXL, and PRG into the discussion too). GLA and MAN could be at some risk as well, although if VS doesn't pull through they'd probably keep MAN at least. I doubt all of those will go, but probably at least 3 or 4 of them.
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FSDan
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 4:31 am

flyinghippo wrote:
I think outside of LHR, AMS, CDG, FCO, all other EU cities from the US will be on the chopping block and will not return until 2023 and beyond. With the exception of JFK, which will become the TATL hub for DL.

I can see JFK maintaining FRA and ZRH for it's finance clients, maybe MAD, but the rest are all in danger.


I think the ATL-Germany markets are probably pretty safe. And I'd be very surprised if they pull completely out of DUB, BCN, BRU, MXP, or ATH for more than just a year or so.
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klm617
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 10:50 am

I think DTW-FRA is safe as well. The thing is will MUC and FCO come back in the summer being DTW is Delta's second largest hub and geographically in a good place to field TATL connections from about 75% of the Delta network. Because I think FCO and MUC will remain Delta year round destinations. I also think that STR from ATL is not at risk either.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 3:37 pm

Anyone else think that Delta can consolidate in terminal 4 as it is? Let them demo terminal 2...And then down the road if they need to expand the A concourse they can
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 3:52 pm

It might even be fleet wise. From what I have been hearing, all MDs and 777s will be retired. (I personally am sad at both.)

The future fleet
717s- Heavily downsized, most likely all will be moved to ATL, and get replaced by A220s.
737s- 737-700s and 737-800s will likely get replaced by 737-900ERs quicker, with the younger ones leaving around when the 757/767.
757- Delta is keeping them till 2026 to serve the international routes that 321s can't?
767- Same as the 757, with -300ER retirements speeding up
777- No more by years end
A220- replacing A319s and 717s
A319s- replaced by A220s around the time as the older 737s
A320s- being upgauged to A321s or downgauged to A220s
A321s- staying for the forseeable future.
A330s- -200 and -300 may get retired faster, replaced by 767-400ER and A330neo
A350s- serve as the bulk for international flying
MDs- gone next week :(

So, the only cockpits they'll have left in the future will be the 737, 757/767, A220/A321, A330neo/A350. Most, if not all A319s, A320s, 717s, 737-800s, 777s, MD-88s, and MD-90s will go. The 757/767 and 737 will likely not make it to 2030, and DL will be all Airbus, truly the end of an era. :(
 
TonyClifton
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 4:10 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Anyone else think that Delta can consolidate in terminal 4 as it is? Let them demo terminal 2...And then down the road if they need to expand the A concourse they can

Probably. I think the most recent JFK plans showed an extension to T4A. I don’t know if I see T2 coming back, but I’ve been wrong before.
 
kavok
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 4:22 pm

klm617 wrote:
I think DTW-FRA is safe as well. The thing is will MUC and FCO come back in the summer being DTW is Delta's second largest hub and geographically in a good place to field TATL connections from about 75% of the Delta network. Because I think FCO and MUC will remain Delta year round destinations. I also think that STR from ATL is not at risk either.


I tend to agree. LH is bringing back DTW-FRA and, even in crisis mode, I can’t believe Delta would stand by and let Star Alliance operate a flight into one of it’s fortress hubs and not try and match it. Especially to a destination as important as FRA. This was a flight that operated year round before anyway.

DTW-FCO/MUC I would be a little more concerned by. FCO is more leisure oriented by nature, but it is also a hub of a partner airline, and not a station Delta will close (ie FCO-ATL/JFK is not going anywhere). MUC is more interesting, as it is a relatively new route, but also a route that both DL and LH were going to serve this summer. Basically, if there was enough traffic for two airlines to fly it, the demand is likely decent. But it could also be that one of DL/LH retreats from it going forward.

The bigger question I have is about the future of AMS/CDG routes to DLs unofficial focus cities (IND-CDG, TPA-AMS, PDX-AMS, etc.). How many of those stay and how many of those go away? All are currently on the schedule for April 2021, but obviously that all could change.
Last edited by kavok on Fri May 29, 2020 4:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 4:23 pm

TonyClifton wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Anyone else think that Delta can consolidate in terminal 4 as it is? Let them demo terminal 2...And then down the road if they need to expand the A concourse they can

Probably. I think the most recent JFK plans showed an extension to T4A. I don’t know if I see T2 coming back, but I’ve been wrong before.


Well the extension was supposed to make up for terminal 2

What I’m suggesting is there’s no need for an extension or terminal 2 right now. They can probably build out their operation into terminal 4 as it is And revisit the extension several years from now
 
gaystudpilot
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 4:27 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Anyone else think that Delta can consolidate in terminal 4 as it is? Let them demo terminal 2...And then down the road if they need to expand the A concourse they can


The current environment definitely provides more operational flexibility. I imagine that in turn would lead to re-visiting the sequence and timing of building out T4A, demolishing T2 and rebuilding T1.

Obviously the challenge/risk will be managing the phases of moves and construction with the projected rebound in air travel. We also don’t know Delta’s plan for JFK as a “smaller” carrier.

But no doubt, if funding holds, PANYNJ should be taking advantage of the current operational flexibility to accelerate the project.

Same with T2 and T3 at LAX.
 
klm617
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 4:32 pm

kavok wrote:
klm617 wrote:
I think DTW-FRA is safe as well. The thing is will MUC and FCO come back in the summer being DTW is Delta's second largest hub and geographically in a good place to field TATL connections from about 75% of the Delta network. Because I think FCO and MUC will remain Delta year round destinations. I also think that STR from ATL is not at risk either.


I tend to agree. LH is bringing back DTW-FRA and, even in crisis mode, I can’t believe Delta would stand by and let Star Alliance operate a flight into one of it’s fortress hubs and not try and match it. Especially to a destination as important as FRA. This was a flight that operated year round before anyway.

DTW-FCO/MUC I would be a little more concerned by. FCO is more leisure oriented by nature, but it is also a hub of a partner airline, and not a station Delta will close (ie FCO-ATL/JFK is not going anywhere). MUC is more interesting, as it is a relatively new route, but also a route that both DL and LH were going to serve this summer. Basically, if there was enough traffic for two airlines to fly it, the demand is likely decent. But it could also be that one of DL/LH retreats from it going forward.

The bigger question I have is about the future of AMS/CDG routes to DLs unofficial focus cities (IND-CDG, TPA-AMS, PDX-AMS, etc.). How many of those stay and how many of those go away? All are currently on the schedule for April 2021, but obviously that all could change.


I really think gong forward any route that wasn't making the margins Delta wanted is going to get cut. Delta will no longer be in speculating mode when it comes to new international routes. If it wasn't profitable it's going to get cut and you will have to connect at AMS or CDG to get where you need to go.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
SteelChair
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 4:33 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
It might even be fleet wise. From what I have been hearing, all MDs and 777s will be retired. (I personally am sad at both.)

The future fleet
717s- Heavily downsized, most likely all will be moved to ATL, and get replaced by A220s.
737s- 737-700s and 737-800s will likely get replaced by 737-900ERs quicker, with the younger ones leaving around when the 757/767.
757- Delta is keeping them till 2026 to serve the international routes that 321s can't?
767- Same as the 757, with -300ER retirements speeding up
777- No more by years end
A220- replacing A319s and 717s
A319s- replaced by A220s around the time as the older 737s
A320s- being upgauged to A321s or downgauged to A220s
A321s- staying for the forseeable future.
A330s- -200 and -300 may get retired faster, replaced by 767-400ER and A330neo
A350s- serve as the bulk for international flying
MDs- gone next week :(

So, the only cockpits they'll have left in the future will be the 737, 757/767, A220/A321, A330neo/A350. Most, if not all A319s, A320s, 717s, 737-800s, 777s, MD-88s, and MD-90s will go. The 757/767 and 737 will likely not make it to 2030, and DL will be all Airbus, truly the end of an era. :(


A220 series has different cockpit than A320 series and A330 series has different cockpit than A350 series
 
TonyClifton
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 4:58 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Anyone else think that Delta can consolidate in terminal 4 as it is? Let them demo terminal 2...And then down the road if they need to expand the A concourse they can

Probably. I think the most recent JFK plans showed an extension to T4A. I don’t know if I see T2 coming back, but I’ve been wrong before.


Well the extension was supposed to make up for terminal 2

What I’m suggesting is there’s no need for an extension or terminal 2 right now. They can probably build out their operation into terminal 4 as it is And revisit the extension several years from now

Yep, and I’d think that they could probably get by with a pure T4 operation, especially in intl travel is down for a bit longer that’s JFKs bread and butter. Move to T4 and see how it sits, build T4A out as needed. T2 is just a horrible experience.
 
ethernal
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 5:07 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
So, the only cockpits they'll have left in the future will be the 737, 757/767, A220/A321, A330neo/A350. Most, if not all A319s, A320s, 717s, 737-800s, 777s, MD-88s, and MD-90s will go. The 757/767 and 737 will likely not make it to 2030, and DL will be all Airbus, truly the end of an era. :(


Do you mean the non-ER 737s? Barring major structural shifts in the market, there is no way Delta retires the 739s by 2030. They love the CASM on those planes (which they've "earned" by packing passengers on those planes like sardines and earned everyone's 'least favorite Delta plane' title). They should be flying through 2040 at a minimum - they literally just finished taking deliveries on them a year or two back.

Also, as noted by someone else, the A220 is a different cert than than the A321.. it was built by Bombardier afterall.
 
panamair
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 5:10 pm

TonyClifton wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
TonyClifton wrote:
Probably. I think the most recent JFK plans showed an extension to T4A. I don’t know if I see T2 coming back, but I’ve been wrong before.


Well the extension was supposed to make up for terminal 2

What I’m suggesting is there’s no need for an extension or terminal 2 right now. They can probably build out their operation into terminal 4 as it is And revisit the extension several years from now

Yep, and I’d think that they could probably get by with a pure T4 operation, especially in intl travel is down for a bit longer that’s JFKs bread and butter. Move to T4 and see how it sits, build T4A out as needed. T2 is just a horrible experience.


Part of it will depend on the slot control requirements at JFK. If carriers still have to maintain them (or at the same level as before), DL may not have the luxury to scale down as much as they would like.
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 5:27 pm

JFK slots will be wide open next year. The impetus to keep operating flights just to keep slots might not be there.
 
joeljack
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 5:38 pm

So Delta is shrinking just like AA and UA are, WN has a completely different approach which is to gain travelers at the expense of others.

https://www.swamedia.com/releases/relea ... jan-4-2021

WN is adding 3 daily nonstops on ATL-OMA/SDF/OKC in each market. Typically there would be an aggressive response from Delta. I wonder how covid will change their response? For example, Delta was already scheduled to fly OMA-ATL at 6x daily this summer (now down to 2x daily). This is all very interesting to me and how will Delta handle this now on these markets and others vs the "smaller carrier" approach. Thoughts and discussions are welcome.
 
evank516
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 5:44 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
It might even be fleet wise. From what I have been hearing, all MDs and 777s will be retired. (I personally am sad at both.)

The future fleet
717s- Heavily downsized, most likely all will be moved to ATL, and get replaced by A220s.
737s- 737-700s and 737-800s will likely get replaced by 737-900ERs quicker, with the younger ones leaving around when the 757/767.
757- Delta is keeping them till 2026 to serve the international routes that 321s can't?
767- Same as the 757, with -300ER retirements speeding up
777- No more by years end
A220- replacing A319s and 717s
A319s- replaced by A220s around the time as the older 737s
A320s- being upgauged to A321s or downgauged to A220s
A321s- staying for the forseeable future.
A330s- -200 and -300 may get retired faster, replaced by 767-400ER and A330neo
A350s- serve as the bulk for international flying
MDs- gone next week :(

So, the only cockpits they'll have left in the future will be the 737, 757/767, A220/A321, A330neo/A350. Most, if not all A319s, A320s, 717s, 737-800s, 777s, MD-88s, and MD-90s will go. The 757/767 and 737 will likely not make it to 2030, and DL will be all Airbus, truly the end of an era. :(

The 737-700s are use to perform some unique missions to airports with short runways (EYW) or hot and high. They'll need to ensure the A220 can successfully carry out those same missions before retiring them. They're in the fleet for a reason and only have been since 2009 I believe.
 
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STT757
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 5:48 pm

tphuang wrote:
JFK slots will be wide open next year. The impetus to keep operating flights just to keep slots might not be there.


They should just relax them like they did at EWR, chances are that there will not be much volume to control over the next couple of years. Kennedy is dominated by International traffic, nearly eight million more International passengers than domestic last year, and most of that from Europe. That market is not coming back strong for a while, they should just relax the slots and open the airport up to whomever to bring some revenue into the Port Authority's coffers. The Agency has been decimated by the pandemic which has seen it's toll and passenger revenues fall off a cliff.

If WN, NK, F9 or whomever wants to adds flights to any of the region's airports right now (or in the next few months) the Port Authority should be moving mountains to make it happen.

LaGuardia is a little different, but Kennedy can absolutely be opened wide.
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jfklganyc
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 8:05 pm

STT757 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
JFK slots will be wide open next year. The impetus to keep operating flights just to keep slots might not be there.


They should just relax them like they did at EWR, chances are that there will not be much volume to control over the next couple of years. Kennedy is dominated by International traffic, nearly eight million more International passengers than domestic last year, and most of that from Europe. That market is not coming back strong for a while, they should just relax the slots and open the airport up to whomever to bring some revenue into the Port Authority's coffers. The Agency has been decimated by the pandemic which has seen it's toll and passenger revenues fall off a cliff.

If WN, NK, F9 or whomever wants to adds flights to any of the region's airports right now (or in the next few months) the Port Authority should be moving mountains to make it happen.

LaGuardia is a little different, but Kennedy can absolutely be opened wide.


Agreed.

I also have a feeling LGA will be in the worst trouble.

Business heavy airport with little business travel. Think Saturday at LGA.

Furthermore, as we are seeing over past couple of days with discussions of reopening Manhattan, even the Mayor cant tell you to use the subway with a straight face.

Until there is a vaccine, widespread use of the subway isnt possible. That makes widespread use of Manhattan for business impossible.

I think the regions business sector will undergo a massive transformation in the interim.

How does this effect Delta?

Their hub at LGA based on high frequency short-haul flying is in peril.

Their hub at JFK based on connections to Europe will be smaller.

UA DL and B6 will concentrate on Florida, VFR and Leisure with smaller presences on high frequency markets.
 
tjerome
Posts: 338
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 8:48 pm

Boeing757100 wrote:
It might even be fleet wise. From what I have been hearing, all MDs and 777s will be retired. (I personally am sad at both.)

The future fleet
717s- Heavily downsized, most likely all will be moved to ATL, and get replaced by A220s.
737s- 737-700s and 737-800s will likely get replaced by 737-900ERs quicker, with the younger ones leaving around when the 757/767.
757- Delta is keeping them till 2026 to serve the international routes that 321s can't?
767- Same as the 757, with -300ER retirements speeding up
777- No more by years end
A220- replacing A319s and 717s
A319s- replaced by A220s around the time as the older 737s
A320s- being upgauged to A321s or downgauged to A220s
A321s- staying for the forseeable future.
A330s- -200 and -300 may get retired faster, replaced by 767-400ER and A330neo
A350s- serve as the bulk for international flying
MDs- gone next week :(

So, the only cockpits they'll have left in the future will be the 737, 757/767, A220/A321, A330neo/A350. Most, if not all A319s, A320s, 717s, 737-800s, 777s, MD-88s, and MD-90s will go. The 757/767 and 737 will likely not make it to 2030, and DL will be all Airbus, truly the end of an era. :(


That's not right at all.

717s- 30-45 planes in operation, will be based out of ATL and DTW
737-700s stay long term
737-800s will stay for the forseeable future
737-900ERs stay long term
757- some parked now won't come back and some older ones will gradually exit as 321neos come online.
A220- stay long term
A319s- stay long term
A320s- the oldest frames parked permanently while the younger ones return
A321s- stay long term
MDs- gone next week :(

777- park by the end of the year
763- some parked now won't come back and the rest will gradually exit through this decade as 339s come online. Will probably operate some domestic transcons as well as Europe/Africa/Interport flying.
764 - stay through the end of this decade, focused on Europe routes
A332/3s- stay long term, focused on Europe/Africa routes
A339 - probably concentrated on West Coast-Asia and Europe but could operate out of JFK/ATL.
A350s- operates current 350 and 777 routes
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7947
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri May 29, 2020 9:48 pm

Today was a Black Friday in a number of large companies in a few ways.

One most large companies aren’t planning to get most of their white collar workforce back into offices until August or September.

Travel bans and or severe restrictions until at least Q4 if not 2021.

Plus now that the immediate health danger is more under control and companies are looking at a long term recover, we now are seeing companies talk about involuntary workforce reductions in the weeks and months ahead.
 
User001
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat May 30, 2020 6:32 pm

FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
kavok wrote:
Apparently the FAs were told that Delta plans to exit a number of their European stations permanently. The specific locations were not revealed, and no I don’t have a link to confirm what the FAs were told. But given that it was revealed en masse, somebody will likely be able to source that quote soon. Anyway, it looks like DL will be taking a step back on the number of TATL destinations served, and not just for this summer.


I would imagine LGW is an obvious one to exit since VS is leaving there. Maybe LIS, NCE, SNN and KEF also.


I'd agree with KEF, SNN, and LGW for sure. LIS and NCE I'd be a little less certain about, although you never know (and if LIS or NCE is in danger, I'd throw CPH, TXL, and PRG into the discussion too). GLA and MAN could be at some risk as well, although if VS doesn't pull through they'd probably keep MAN at least. I doubt all of those will go, but probably at least 3 or 4 of them.


MAN is a tough one to call. DL were to take over the MAN-BOS route this summer, with ATL and JFK being on VS metal for a long time now. The bigger Virgin Atlantic presence means DL will always have a strong 'presence' and thus easier to bring the BOS back as brand awareness remains. I suppose it all depends on BOS remaining a TATL focus City.
 
klm617
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat May 30, 2020 8:26 pm

User001 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:

I would imagine LGW is an obvious one to exit since VS is leaving there. Maybe LIS, NCE, SNN and KEF also.


I'd agree with KEF, SNN, and LGW for sure. LIS and NCE I'd be a little less certain about, although you never know (and if LIS or NCE is in danger, I'd throw CPH, TXL, and PRG into the discussion too). GLA and MAN could be at some risk as well, although if VS doesn't pull through they'd probably keep MAN at least. I doubt all of those will go, but probably at least 3 or 4 of them.


MAN is a tough one to call. DL were to take over the MAN-BOS route this summer, with ATL and JFK being on VS metal for a long time now. The bigger Virgin Atlantic presence means DL will always have a strong 'presence' and thus easier to bring the BOS back as brand awareness remains. I suppose it all depends on BOS remaining a TATL focus City.


The question about MAN would be would it not be better now to connect it to one of Delta's core hubs rather than Boston for better loads and a higher level of premium traffic. The thing about ATL-MAN is I'm pretty sure it carried a lot of low yielding Florida traffic hence the reason it was given to VS to provide that flight. Delta likes to run it's own metal on premium heavy routes.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
tphuang
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sat May 30, 2020 11:26 pm

The question is whether or not VS will survive. DL strategy at MAN (or anywhere in UK) will be very different if VS isn't around or enters administration and emerges a different airline.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:25 am

Reuters reports details of potential DL pilot furlough -- ~2,300 or fewer, with specific reference to demand for summer 2021 flying. APC shows 14,600 active DL mainline pilots at present.

(Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) and its pilots union said on Sunday they are working to avoid furloughs of roughly 2,300 pilots following a reshuffling process meant to match staffing to summer 2021 flying.

Following the results on Sunday of a so-called “surplus” bid in which employees were asked to petition available positions at one of Delta’s seven U.S. pilot bases, the airline will be shifting around 7,000 pilots to different locations or aircraft types, while 2,327 have not been assigned to any category, Delta’s Master Executive Council (MEC) of the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) said in a statement.

ALPA said it was continuing to meet with Delta on potential early-out or voluntary leave programs, saying it is “optimistic that management will continue to engage with ALPA to protect pilot jobs.”


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2380YA
 
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jfklganyc
Posts: 5927
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:39 am

16 percent reduction in pilots

Sucks, but that is one of the better scenarios.

I dare say it probably isnt deep enough if current trends hold. More could follow
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 01, 2020 2:04 pm

Res subways, I am suspecting once the daily case load drops and testing is available, along with N95 masks subways will become relatively safe. The real test for that is Japan and China. What will change in white collar jobs (and schools and colleges), will be a reduction in face to face contact. Details for this, should be discussed in non-aviation, but aviation (and the economy) is dependent upon all of us, businesses, and factories learning to reduce the spread of this disease.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
n9801f
Posts: 209
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:32 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
16 percent reduction in pilots

Sucks, but that is one of the better scenarios.

I dare say it probably isnt deep enough if current trends hold. More could follow


16% for the pilots sounds a lot better than the planned cuts in nonunion employees.
 
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NWAESC
Posts: 1481
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:28 pm

What plans are those?
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
goboeing
Posts: 2569
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 01, 2020 8:53 pm

At any airline with multiple fleet types but especially so with those that have many, moving pilots backwards in positions is limited by their training capacity.

Only so many simulator events can be done in a month. There are only so many instructors. There are only so many check airmen. Some of both of those positions are changing positions, themselves. Quite a mess.

It could very well be that a year from now as the training from today's plant approaches completion, it's time to turn things around again and start gradually moving everyone back the other direction again.

Retirement numbers off the top in the coming years could almost be described as extreme at both AA and DL.
 
Dalmd88
Posts: 3131
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 3:19 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:05 pm

goboeing wrote:
At any airline with multiple fleet types but especially so with those that have many, moving pilots backwards in positions is limited by their training capacity.

Only so many simulator events can be done in a month. There are only so many instructors. There are only so many check airmen. Some of both of those positions are changing positions, themselves. Quite a mess.

It could very well be that a year from now as the training from today's plant approaches completion, it's time to turn things around again and start gradually moving everyone back the other direction again.

Retirement numbers off the top in the coming years could almost be described as extreme at both AA and DL.

That is why they are only going to cut the bottom 2500 or so. The overage is closer to 7000. If they cut that many it would kill the operation. Training could never cover all the movement. It is just cheaper to run with the overage for a year or even two.
 
HNLSLCPDX
Posts: 178
Joined: Sun Nov 01, 2015 5:40 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:38 pm

I wonder what SLC to Europe will look like going forward. I don’t see LHR on DL coming back. Maybe the 2x to AMS split between KL/DL will be down to one carrier. Also I hope the CDG flight can come back.
 
kavok
Posts: 815
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:43 pm

HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I wonder what SLC to Europe will look like going forward. I don’t see LHR on DL coming back. Maybe the 2x to AMS split between KL/DL will be down to one carrier. Also I hope the CDG flight can come back.


SLC-LHR/AMS/CDG will all be back. It is only a question of when. It might not be until spring 2021, but they will return.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 7790
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 01, 2020 11:54 pm

Dalmd88 wrote:
goboeing wrote:
At any airline with multiple fleet types but especially so with those that have many, moving pilots backwards in positions is limited by their training capacity.

Only so many simulator events can be done in a month. There are only so many instructors. There are only so many check airmen. Some of both of those positions are changing positions, themselves. Quite a mess.

It could very well be that a year from now as the training from today's plant approaches completion, it's time to turn things around again and start gradually moving everyone back the other direction again.

Retirement numbers off the top in the coming years could almost be described as extreme at both AA and DL.

That is why they are only going to cut the bottom 2500 or so. The overage is closer to 7000. If they cut that many it would kill the operation. Training could never cover all the movement. It is just cheaper to run with the overage for a year or even two.


That's probably part of the reason for a 16% cut in pilots even though the demand decline (7,000, if that's the number into 2021) is much steeper. I wouldn't be confident that other crafts, nor admin nor management, will fare so well. The training needs may be very different.
 
acavpics
Posts: 367
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:54 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:04 am

kavok wrote:
HNLSLCPDX wrote:
I wonder what SLC to Europe will look like going forward. I don’t see LHR on DL coming back. Maybe the 2x to AMS split between KL/DL will be down to one carrier. Also I hope the CDG flight can come back.


SLC-LHR/AMS/CDG will all be back. It is only a question of when. It might not be until spring 2021, but they will return.


Nope. Imma bet you 90% of this stuff will be back come Christmas time.
 
royroy
Posts: 51
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:24 am

SLC-LHR is due to return end of October
 
goboeing
Posts: 2569
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 5:31 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:59 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
That's probably part of the reason for a 16% cut in pilots even though the demand decline (7,000, if that's the number into 2021) is much steeper. I wouldn't be confident that other crafts, nor admin nor management, will fare so well. The training needs may be very different.


True, and the other factor involved in pilot staffing is future retirements.

Someone retiring off of the A350 left seat creates a cascade of training events to be performed as people fill the voids upward. 2022-2026 are significant retirement numbers.
 
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NWAROOSTER
Posts: 1329
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:09 pm

The riots, looting and burning in the United States cities may cause a slow down in increased flying due to the possible uptick of Corvid-19 due to the lack of any kind of social distancing that may spread the virus to non protesters. Hope it does not cause a bump up in the viral infection. :old:
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7947
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:53 pm

Today they ferried the few 717s that had been flying from DTW down to ATL. At least for the interim, going forward all 717 flying is from ATL.
DTW will supposedly resume 717 flying after they realign the pilot group and training and when the operation scales back-up.
 
klm617
Posts: 4893
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:55 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Today they ferried the few 717s that had been flying from DTW down to ATL. At least for the interim, going forward all 717 flying is from ATL.
DTW will supposedly resume 717 flying after they realign the pilot group and training and when the operation scales back-up.



What are they replacing the 717 flying at DTW with ?
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7947
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:11 pm

klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Today they ferried the few 717s that had been flying from DTW down to ATL. At least for the interim, going forward all 717 flying is from ATL.
DTW will supposedly resume 717 flying after they realign the pilot group and training and when the operation scales back-up.



What are they replacing the 717 flying at DTW with ?

In May there were only about 5-10 717 flights a day out of DTW with the decimated COVID schedule, to places like CLT, BNA, IAD, MCI, RDU.
In June and July they all are showing CR9 instead.
August schedule is still loaded as pre-COVID and hasn't been pulled down.
 
KMCOFlyer
Posts: 229
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2017 5:32 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:14 pm

klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Today they ferried the few 717s that had been flying from DTW down to ATL. At least for the interim, going forward all 717 flying is from ATL.
DTW will supposedly resume 717 flying after they realign the pilot group and training and when the operation scales back-up.



What are they replacing the 717 flying at DTW with ?


It looks like most DTW flying is on RJs. It’s sounds like DL is downgauging many routes in June. Almost all of the former MD-88/90 routes get downshifted to 717 and most DTW flying is now on RJs.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7947
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:24 pm

Yeah they pulled the 717 that weren't in storage from the other hubs to replace MD88/90 flying at ATL in June and backfilled the few in DTW with CR9.
DTW schedule for June is up about 10-12 flights a day versus the May schedule with a few additional flights per day to Florida markets (e.g, MCO, TPA, FLL, RSW) and hubs (ATL, MSP, SLC, LAX, SEA) and LHR is back less-than-daily. And, there is actually a red-eye flight again from LAX.

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