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klm617
Posts: 4903
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:14 pm

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Which markets ended/suspended by DL do you think will return, and which may be gone for good (as in, even when the demand returns to near pre-COVID levels broadly)? I know it's impossible to say for sure given the uncertainty in the market right now, but I'm curious if you think any of these will be permanent.



I think FNT, ERI and CAK are gone for good
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:23 pm

klm617 wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Which markets ended/suspended by DL do you think will return, and which may be gone for good (as in, even when the demand returns to near pre-COVID levels broadly)? I know it's impossible to say for sure given the uncertainty in the market right now, but I'm curious if you think any of these will be permanent.



I think FNT, ERI and CAK are gone for good


There is no way DL pulls out of FNT and CAK for good. ERI, maybe...
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:33 pm

I'm optimistic all 3 will be back.

FNT does well with traffic headed to south / sun markets pulling from a wide swath of mid-Michigan. Plus gets some of the MBS & LAN traffic too since they don't have ATL service.
I doubt DL will leave the market to G4, UA and particularly AA who recently started service to CLT for south traffic in addition to ORD. DL may not resume service at FNT until fall or even Feb 2021, but I suspect they will be back.

CAK pretty similar as above.

ERI and AVP were operated by Skywest under the pro-rate/at-risk arrangement.
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:56 pm

I think FNT comes back too. PVD and MDW are good bets* as well. Maybe MHT as well.

LGB might be in the running depending on what WN, AS, and B6 ultimately wind up doing. BUR is a toss up.

I don't see PHF, OAK, or SWF coming back.

*Good bets= WAG's on my part.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
kavok
Posts: 815
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:08 pm

NWAESC wrote:
I think FNT comes back too. PVD and MDW are good bets* as well. Maybe MHT as well.

LGB might be in the running depending on what WN, AS, and B6 ultimately wind up doing. BUR is a toss up.

I don't see PHF, OAK, or SWF coming back.

*Good bets= WAG's on my part.


Agreed.

I think Erie comes back before the snow returns (2 hour drive to BUF/CLE/PIT) becomes far less reliable come October.

Aspen comes back in the winter for obvious reasons.

Bangor comes back once there is a sizable DL option in LGA to connect to.

Canton/Akron and Peoria I am less optimistic about, at least in the near term. It will also be interesting if ORH gets dropped after Oct 1.

Delta was typically the best choice for connecting the small New England / Upstate NY airports to the network. Hopefully most of those stations remain too.
 
DeltaRules
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:12 pm

CAK is the closest option for a number of people in Eastern Ohio and that alone may give them reason to stay there. CAK is closer to Cambridge, for example, than PIT or CMH.
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airtechy
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:48 pm

Actually there is one step above (below?) WAG ... SWAG ... Scientific WAG! ;)
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 08, 2020 7:53 pm

Since last week DL has taken the following aircraft out of storage:

BYH
4 A359

MCI
3 A321
3 B739

MZJ
2 B739

VCV
1 B739
 
nwadeicer
Posts: 302
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 3:17 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jun 08, 2020 9:36 pm

NWAESC wrote:
I think FNT comes back too. PVD and MDW are good bets* as well. Maybe MHT as well.

LGB might be in the running depending on what WN, AS, and B6 ultimately wind up doing. BUR is a toss up.

I don't see PHF, OAK, or SWF coming back.

*Good bets= WAG's on my part.


I agree with FNT, but with just one flight to ATL, 2-3 times a day, I highly doubt it will be mainline DL people working there. Way to much money being spent to work a couple CRJ's and a 737 both up and below wing.
I miss the Red Tail
 
n7371f
Posts: 1802
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:50 am

And a 321 is suppose to ferry Marana-SLC Tuesday.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Since last week DL has taken the following aircraft out of storage:

BYH
4 A359

MCI
3 A321
3 B739

MZJ
2 B739

VCV
1 B739
 
FlyGuyNash
Posts: 30
Joined: Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:56 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:12 am

n7371f wrote:
And a 321 is suppose to ferry Marana-SLC Tuesday.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Since last week DL has taken the following aircraft out of storage:

BYH
4 A359

MCI
3 A321
3 B739

MZJ
2 B739

VCV
1 B739


A total of 9 A321s are due out by June 10th. So far the current plan is to take out ~70 planes for the July schedule. Hopefully more come out though with some more positive data trending.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:19 am

Yeah - I actually missed a couple - updated including flights through 6/10:

Since last week DL has taken the following aircraft out of storage:

BYH
4 A359

MCI
6 A321
3 B739

MZJ
2 B739
1 A321

VCV
1 B739
 
winginit
Posts: 2849
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 3:56 pm

klm617 wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Which markets ended/suspended by DL do you think will return, and which may be gone for good (as in, even when the demand returns to near pre-COVID levels broadly)? I know it's impossible to say for sure given the uncertainty in the market right now, but I'm curious if you think any of these will be permanent.



I think FNT, ERI and CAK are gone for good


Absolutely zero chance DL does not return to FNT
 
KarlB737
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2004 9:51 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:21 pm

winginit wrote:
FNT is being removed from the schedule in the 6/13 schedule load along with the other suspended stations.


Courtesy: Aviation Pros

Flint Bishop Airport Director, Nino Sapone’s, Full Statement on the DOT’s Approval of Delta Airlines’ Request for Exemption

"So, what does this mean going forward? One thing it doesn’t mean is that the airline is gone forever. This is a suspension in service, and not necessarily a market exit. The team at Delta headquarters has assured us that they will continue to monitor the demand in Flint, and that they will reevaluate their position as we head into the fall. Could we see service again before September 30th? Yes. Could we have a delay beyond that? Yes. Is there a guarantee of them returning? No. However, the demand for Delta service here has always been, and will remain high. We know that there are tens of thousands of you who depend on their flights to get you where you need to go, and to bring business clients, family and friends to you.The sheer volume of Delta Sky Miles Passengers in our region speaks to that."

https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/press-release/21141109/bishop-international-airport-fnt-flint-bishop-airport-director-nino-sapones-full-statement-on-the-dots-approval-of-delta-airlines-request-for-exemption
 
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enilria
Posts: 10195
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:26 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
AVLAirlineFreq wrote:
Which markets ended/suspended by DL do you think will return, and which may be gone for good (as in, even when the demand returns to near pre-COVID levels broadly)? I know it's impossible to say for sure given the uncertainty in the market right now, but I'm curious if you think any of these will be permanent.



I think FNT, ERI and CAK are gone for good


Absolutely zero chance DL does not return to FNT

I think they don't return until an LCC makes a move there...if that happens.
lightsaber wrote:
klm617 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Total travel is almost, but not quite, at 15% of 2019 traffic:
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

At the current pace of recovery, I hate to say it, DL should have cut more With traffic yield poor, and I expect through the next year, DL will have trouble making money.

Some cities will be Marginal. When traffic is 3x more, than we could talk about cutting too much.

Lightsaber


I agree still relying to much on ATL connections and most of that is low yielding Florida traffic. Delta needs to beef up it's east west connection opportunities which it has all but surrendered to UA and AA. Nobody the the Northeast or upper midwest want's to fly down to ATL to get a connection out west.

While relying on ATL isn't perfect, customers have JFK, BOS, DTW, and MSP for connections.

As to the West not using ATL, I'm amazed how often I would connect in ATL, but because of the 40 minute connection times, the routings worked. Otherwise SLC, MSP and DTW serve the West.

I am personally going to miss the LAX to Florida direct flights, but that just won't happen in today's market. Cest la vie.

Looking at the TSA numbers, traffic is at 16.5% of previous and only growing 2% a week or so.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

In other words, DL hasn't cut enough. So if most is through ATL, that is the choice. My LAX based options are... too generous. The cash burn must be reduced. Business flying is going to be low for all of 2020.

Lightsaber

Fall is the huge question mark.
1) Leisure travel normally dries up, plus school is starting earlier in a lot of places
2) Business travel normally drives the bus starting September, but is dead
3) COVID will almost certainly make some sort of comeback, but unknown how severely.
4) Airlines are ending social distancing on planes once the government stops paying their employees at the CARES expiry

So no, DL won't be making money any time soon.

But for now, traffic is growing 20% week over week, not 2 points a week. There's a big difference. If these % gains continue (and the percentages have actually been increasing) the demand will be at basically 100% for domestic by Labor Day at which point things gets messy, see above. Of course, we can't get back to 100% because a lot of the planes and staff are basically not coming back. So fares will start going up. I see it already.
 
klm617
Posts: 4903
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:43 pm

enilria wrote:
winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:


I think FNT, ERI and CAK are gone for good


Absolutely zero chance DL does not return to FNT

I think they don't return until an LCC makes a move there...if that happens.
lightsaber wrote:
klm617 wrote:

I agree still relying to much on ATL connections and most of that is low yielding Florida traffic. Delta needs to beef up it's east west connection opportunities which it has all but surrendered to UA and AA. Nobody the the Northeast or upper midwest want's to fly down to ATL to get a connection out west.

While relying on ATL isn't perfect, customers have JFK, BOS, DTW, and MSP for connections.

As to the West not using ATL, I'm amazed how often I would connect in ATL, but because of the 40 minute connection times, the routings worked. Otherwise SLC, MSP and DTW serve the West.

I am personally going to miss the LAX to Florida direct flights, but that just won't happen in today's market. Cest la vie.

Looking at the TSA numbers, traffic is at 16.5% of previous and only growing 2% a week or so.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

In other words, DL hasn't cut enough. So if most is through ATL, that is the choice. My LAX based options are... too generous. The cash burn must be reduced. Business flying is going to be low for all of 2020.

Lightsaber

Fall is the huge question mark.
1) Leisure travel normally dries up, plus school is starting earlier in a lot of places
2) Business travel normally drives the bus starting September, but is dead
3) COVID will almost certainly make some sort of comeback, but unknown how severely.
4) Airlines are ending social distancing on planes once the government stops paying their employees at the CARES expiry

So no, DL won't be making money any time soon.

But for now, traffic is growing 20% week over week, not 2 points a week. There's a big difference. If these % gains continue (and the percentages have actually been increasing) the demand will be at basically 100% for domestic by Labor Day at which point things gets messy, see above. Of course, we can't get back to 100% because a lot of the planes and staff are basically not coming back. So fares will start going up. I see it already.



I agree by Delta leaving FNT is a great opportunity for the airport if they play their cards right. Now is a great time for Spirit to make a play for Flint and create the same sort of operation in Flint that Airtran did to perpetuate the growth that the airport seen in the early part of this decade. Delta is banking on that loyal skymiles fliers will drive to Detroit to get a flight.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
TWA902fly
Posts: 3123
Joined: Fri Dec 31, 1999 5:47 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:40 pm

klm617 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
CIDFlyer wrote:
It seems like air travel might be rebounding a little quicker than previously thought. Nearly 400k went through TSA the other day. I’m worried DL May have cut a little too much. Their schedule in my hometown of CID is 1x to MSP right now, and that hub only has 95 flights. Many places I’ve priced on trips the fares are high and you have to double connect. I’m hoping they bring more cities and flights back to ATL. If I needed to go anywhere or looking to book I’d basically have to go American because it provides to most options at this point.

Total travel is almost, but not quite, at 15% of 2019 traffic:
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

At the current pace of recovery, I hate to say it, DL should have cut more With traffic yield poor, and I expect through the next year, DL will have trouble making money.

Some cities will be Marginal. When traffic is 3x more, than we could talk about cutting too much.

Lightsaber


I agree still relying to much on ATL connections and most of that is low yielding Florida traffic. Delta needs to beef up it's east west connection opportunities which it has all but surrendered to UA and AA. Nobody the the Northeast or upper midwest want's to fly down to ATL to get a connection out west.


And yet for a routing like BOS-LAX, here are the mileages:

BOS-LAX nonstop 2611 miles
BOS-DTW-LAX 2611 miles
BOS-ATL-LAX 2892 miles
BOS-SLC-LAX 2695 miles
BOS-MSP-LAX 2659 miles

ATL is further.. but only by 280 miles over the nonstop option. That's what, 20-25 minutes of flight? Length of connection can easily make up for that. I doubt many people are avoiding ATL when flying from the northeast to the west. The further south you get alone the east coast, the less it matters. DCA-ATL-LAX is only 110 miles longer than DCA-DTW-LAX, 50 miles longer than via SLC, and 30 miles longer than via MSP. It's all negligible. I think your argument works for upper midwest TO northeast connections however, for which ATL is quite out of the way.

'902
life wasn't worth the balance, or the crumpled paper it was written on
 
AZORMP
Posts: 88
Joined: Thu Aug 01, 2019 5:08 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:54 pm

klm617 wrote:
enilria wrote:
winginit wrote:

Absolutely zero chance DL does not return to FNT

I think they don't return until an LCC makes a move there...if that happens.
lightsaber wrote:
While relying on ATL isn't perfect, customers have JFK, BOS, DTW, and MSP for connections.

As to the West not using ATL, I'm amazed how often I would connect in ATL, but because of the 40 minute connection times, the routings worked. Otherwise SLC, MSP and DTW serve the West.

I am personally going to miss the LAX to Florida direct flights, but that just won't happen in today's market. Cest la vie.

Looking at the TSA numbers, traffic is at 16.5% of previous and only growing 2% a week or so.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

In other words, DL hasn't cut enough. So if most is through ATL, that is the choice. My LAX based options are... too generous. The cash burn must be reduced. Business flying is going to be low for all of 2020.

Lightsaber

Fall is the huge question mark.
1) Leisure travel normally dries up, plus school is starting earlier in a lot of places
2) Business travel normally drives the bus starting September, but is dead
3) COVID will almost certainly make some sort of comeback, but unknown how severely.
4) Airlines are ending social distancing on planes once the government stops paying their employees at the CARES expiry

So no, DL won't be making money any time soon.

But for now, traffic is growing 20% week over week, not 2 points a week. There's a big difference. If these % gains continue (and the percentages have actually been increasing) the demand will be at basically 100% for domestic by Labor Day at which point things gets messy, see above. Of course, we can't get back to 100% because a lot of the planes and staff are basically not coming back. So fares will start going up. I see it already.



I agree by Delta leaving FNT is a great opportunity for the airport if they play their cards right. Now is a great time for Spirit to make a play for Flint and create the same sort of operation in Flint that Airtran did to perpetuate the growth that the airport seen in the early part of this decade. Delta is banking on that loyal skymiles fliers will drive to Detroit to get a flight.


I wouldn't put too much belief into bringing NK to FNT...not with their operating base in DTW being so close. Might try for Sun Country though.

AZO and LAN wouldn't hurt from pitching a few airlines either. UA is gone as of 7/7 in AZO. Could be an opportunity there to pitch AA on CLT or PHL or for one of the LCCs/ULCCs to come in and shake things up in either city. Capitalize on your competitions pullback.
 
winginit
Posts: 2849
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:56 pm

klm617 wrote:
enilria wrote:
winginit wrote:

Absolutely zero chance DL does not return to FNT

I think they don't return until an LCC makes a move there...if that happens.
lightsaber wrote:
While relying on ATL isn't perfect, customers have JFK, BOS, DTW, and MSP for connections.

As to the West not using ATL, I'm amazed how often I would connect in ATL, but because of the 40 minute connection times, the routings worked. Otherwise SLC, MSP and DTW serve the West.

I am personally going to miss the LAX to Florida direct flights, but that just won't happen in today's market. Cest la vie.

Looking at the TSA numbers, traffic is at 16.5% of previous and only growing 2% a week or so.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

In other words, DL hasn't cut enough. So if most is through ATL, that is the choice. My LAX based options are... too generous. The cash burn must be reduced. Business flying is going to be low for all of 2020.

Lightsaber

Fall is the huge question mark.
1) Leisure travel normally dries up, plus school is starting earlier in a lot of places
2) Business travel normally drives the bus starting September, but is dead
3) COVID will almost certainly make some sort of comeback, but unknown how severely.
4) Airlines are ending social distancing on planes once the government stops paying their employees at the CARES expiry

So no, DL won't be making money any time soon.

But for now, traffic is growing 20% week over week, not 2 points a week. There's a big difference. If these % gains continue (and the percentages have actually been increasing) the demand will be at basically 100% for domestic by Labor Day at which point things gets messy, see above. Of course, we can't get back to 100% because a lot of the planes and staff are basically not coming back. So fares will start going up. I see it already.



I agree by Delta leaving FNT is a great opportunity for the airport if they play their cards right. Now is a great time for Spirit to make a play for Flint and create the same sort of operation in Flint that Airtran did to perpetuate the growth that the airport seen in the early part of this decade. Delta is banking on that loyal skymiles fliers will drive to Detroit to get a flight.


Spirit is fighting for their lives like most other airlines out there at present, and it's overwhelmingly likely that new service would increase, not decrease, their cash burn rate especially since their base of operations is DTW.

I'd be very surprised if any of these suspensions by any carrier resulted, at least through the end of the year, in another carrier making a move. There's a reason these routes are being suspended after all.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:21 pm

This is silly talk at the levels of service and demand that is currently flying. NK flew a grand total of 2-3 departures a day out of DTW currently.
Every airline is fighting for its life and is going to rebuilt itself from its core before venturing into new stations/markets until 2021.

Nobody is pitching to anyone about anything in this environment when the airlines are lighting suitcases of money on fire every day.
 
klm617
Posts: 4903
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:00 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
This is silly talk at the levels of service and demand that is currently flying. NK flew a grand total of 2-3 departures a day out of DTW currently.
Every airline is fighting for its life and is going to rebuilt itself from its core before venturing into new stations/markets until 2021.

Nobody is pitching to anyone about anything in this environment when the airlines are lighting suitcases of money on fire every day.


Yes but I have it on good authority that NK will be operating 85% of it's precovid schedule out of DTW in July. Not to mention NK just added a bunch of flights at EWR and F9 did the same at PHL. The market is ripe for LCC carriers to expand in the near future.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
n9801f
Posts: 209
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:03 pm

TWA902fly wrote:
I doubt many people are avoiding ATL when flying from the northeast to the west.
'902

Check the DOT traffic stats. Sounds like you're in for a surprise.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
This is silly talk at the levels of service and demand that is currently flying.
:checkmark: :checkmark:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Nobody is pitching to anyone about anything in this environment when the airlines are lighting suitcases of money on fire every day.

Yes! It's like asking whether your room upgrade is going to clear tonight while the Titanic is sinking.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5077
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:11 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
This is silly talk at the levels of service and demand that is currently flying. NK flew a grand total of 2-3 departures a day out of DTW currently.
Every airline is fighting for its life and is going to rebuilt itself from its core before venturing into new stations/markets until 2021.

Nobody is pitching to anyone about anything in this environment when the airlines are lighting suitcases of money on fire every day.


Keep in mind NK is going from operating about 10% of its schedule right around now to 70% of its schedule a month from now. I know, crazy level of increase. But that's what they have scheduled in right now.

It's not inconceivable that they see DTW as an area of growth if DL gets too focused on ATL.
 
n9801f
Posts: 209
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:43 pm

Maybe so. The LCC’s and ULCC’s do have lower costs so they can restore capacity sooner than the legacies. In 2009 you saw the LCC’s started recovering first.

But right now the most important thing for Delta is just to survive.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:25 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yeah - I actually missed a couple - updated including flights through 6/10:

Since last week DL has taken the following aircraft out of storage:

BYH
4 A359

MCI
6 A321
3 B739

MZJ
2 B739
1 A321

VCV
1 B739


Through Tue 6/9:
4 A359
7 A321
6 B739

Planned for Wed 6/10:
1 A321 MZJ-ATL
2 A321 MCI-ATL
1 TBD MCI-JFK
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 10195
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:53 pm

AZORMP wrote:
klm617 wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think they don't return until an LCC makes a move there...if that happens.

Fall is the huge question mark.
1) Leisure travel normally dries up, plus school is starting earlier in a lot of places
2) Business travel normally drives the bus starting September, but is dead
3) COVID will almost certainly make some sort of comeback, but unknown how severely.
4) Airlines are ending social distancing on planes once the government stops paying their employees at the CARES expiry

So no, DL won't be making money any time soon.

But for now, traffic is growing 20% week over week, not 2 points a week. There's a big difference. If these % gains continue (and the percentages have actually been increasing) the demand will be at basically 100% for domestic by Labor Day at which point things gets messy, see above. Of course, we can't get back to 100% because a lot of the planes and staff are basically not coming back. So fares will start going up. I see it already.



I agree by Delta leaving FNT is a great opportunity for the airport if they play their cards right. Now is a great time for Spirit to make a play for Flint and create the same sort of operation in Flint that Airtran did to perpetuate the growth that the airport seen in the early part of this decade. Delta is banking on that loyal skymiles fliers will drive to Detroit to get a flight.


I wouldn't put too much belief into bringing NK to FNT...not with their operating base in DTW being so close. Might try for Sun Country though.

AZO and LAN wouldn't hurt from pitching a few airlines either. UA is gone as of 7/7 in AZO. Could be an opportunity there to pitch AA on CLT or PHL or for one of the LCCs/ULCCs to come in and shake things up in either city. Capitalize on your competitions pullback.

Agreed that NK might be willing to do that if they did not have a desperate need to overnight planes at DTW for maintenance. So, I doubt it. As for SY, two problems. #1 Lansing was a bust and it's fairly similar and #2 SY is going to crawl into the warm arms of Amazon. I don't expect the pax business to grow.
klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
This is silly talk at the levels of service and demand that is currently flying. NK flew a grand total of 2-3 departures a day out of DTW currently.
Every airline is fighting for its life and is going to rebuilt itself from its core before venturing into new stations/markets until 2021.

Nobody is pitching to anyone about anything in this environment when the airlines are lighting suitcases of money on fire every day.


Yes but I have it on good authority that NK will be operating 85% of it's precovid schedule out of DTW in July. Not to mention NK just added a bunch of flights at EWR and F9 did the same at PHL. The market is ripe for LCC carriers to expand in the near future.

Spirit announced Houston would also be at something like that in July so I think that is the case. Look at their stock. Its almost tripled from the low. Spirit and F9 will lead the way out of this from a level of flying perspective. Another thing nobody has discussed...there is no reason to be loyal to AA/DL/UA this year. They grandfathered status. So the pax are free to wander.
KarlB737 wrote:
winginit wrote:
FNT is being removed from the schedule in the 6/13 schedule load along with the other suspended stations.


Courtesy: Aviation Pros

Flint Bishop Airport Director, Nino Sapone’s, Full Statement on the DOT’s Approval of Delta Airlines’ Request for Exemption

"So, what does this mean going forward? One thing it doesn’t mean is that the airline is gone forever. This is a suspension in service, and not necessarily a market exit. The team at Delta headquarters has assured us that they will continue to monitor the demand in Flint, and that they will reevaluate their position as we head into the fall. Could we see service again before September 30th? Yes. Could we have a delay beyond that? Yes. Is there a guarantee of them returning? No. However, the demand for Delta service here has always been, and will remain high. We know that there are tens of thousands of you who depend on their flights to get you where you need to go, and to bring business clients, family and friends to you.The sheer volume of Delta Sky Miles Passengers in our region speaks to that."

https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/press-release/21141109/bishop-international-airport-fnt-flint-bishop-airport-director-nino-sapones-full-statement-on-the-dots-approval-of-delta-airlines-request-for-exemption

Perfuming the pig. Delta is constantly looking at all market opportunities. Flint will be among the many markets in that basket. Delta won't be back at all I predict unless an LCC adds flights there. Then DL will be back the same week.
tphuang wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
This is silly talk at the levels of service and demand that is currently flying. NK flew a grand total of 2-3 departures a day out of DTW currently.
Every airline is fighting for its life and is going to rebuilt itself from its core before venturing into new stations/markets until 2021.

Nobody is pitching to anyone about anything in this environment when the airlines are lighting suitcases of money on fire every day.


Keep in mind NK is going from operating about 10% of its schedule right around now to 70% of its schedule a month from now. I know, crazy level of increase. But that's what they have scheduled in right now.

It's not inconceivable that they see DTW as an area of growth if DL gets too focused on ATL.

NK will be at 100% in August I bet. The only reason they might not is what could happen in September and fear of over-staffing...
 
tphuang
Posts: 5077
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 12:58 pm

DL investor update:
expect total revenue to be down 90% for Q2 (I assume this includes loyalty program and cargo revenue also, so larger drop than that for passenger revenue)
System wide capacity down 85% compared to 2019Q2.
cash burn reduced from $100 million a day on Mar 31 to $40 million a day per June 30th.
- achieved through 50% reduction in operating expenses, improvement in net sales and refund request stabilizing
 
kavok
Posts: 815
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 10:12 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:01 pm

So looking way into the future (May 2021), various booking websites are now showing what next summer’s DL TATL routes initially look like.

And yes, obviously it all can be taken with a grain of salt at this point, and things will undoubtedly change. It probably makes the most sense for DL to list a flight at this point, and then drop it if needed, as opposed to going the other way. That being said, it is interesting what is there, and what is not.

Of note, for early May 2021 (as of the date of this post), DL shows the following non-stop flights returning:

CDG: ATL, BOS, CVG, DTW, IND, JFK, LAX, MSP, RDU, SEA, SLC (In addition to some of the cities above, AF alone is also serving DFW, IAD, IAH, MIA, ORD, SFO). Of note, it looks like a daily frequency has been dropped from several of the core Delta hubs.

AMS: ATL, BOS, DTW, JFK, LAX, MCO, MSP, PDX, SEA, SLC, TPA (In addition to some of the cities above, KL alone is also serving IAD, IAH, LAS, ORD, SFO). Of note, it again looks like a daily frequency has been dropped from several of the core Delta hubs.

LHR: ATL, BOS, DTW, JFK, MSP, PDX, SLC (In addition to some of the cities above, VS alone is also serving IAD, LAS, LAX, MIA, MCO, SEA, SFO). Of note, it looks like a daily frequency(s) have been dropped from BOS, DTW, JFK.

FCO: ATL, JFK (In addition to JFK, AZ alone is also serving BOS, IAD, LAX, MIA, SFO). Of note, it looks like ATL-FCO is down to 1x daily and FCO-DTW is off the schedule.

Other DL TATL routes shown as returning (beyond AMS, CDG, FCO, LHR):
ATL: BCN, BRU, DUB, DUS, FRA, MAD, MUC, STR, (and MAN on VS)
BOS: DUB, EDI, LIS (no MAN on DL or VS)
DTW: FRA, MUC (no FCO)
JFK: ATH, BCN, BER, BRU, DUB, EDI, FRA, KEF, LIS, MAD, MXP, NCE, PRG, VCE, ZRH (and MAN on VS)
MSP: none (no KEF)

I did this manually, so apologies if I missed something. Also, I don’t recall all of what was scheduled in years past, so I don’t know what all has been dropped. It appears BOS and ATL have seen the biggest TATL cuts thus far in terms of destinations. DTW/MSP each lost one destination. For JFK, I will be curious to see how many of these remain. Also, all of the “focus city” TATL routes from RDU, CVG, IND, etc. still remain for now as well.

Again, I will be curious what changes come of this in the coming months.
 
PBADC3
Posts: 9
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:34 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:50 pm

Deltran757 wrote:
twicearound wrote:
Deltran757 wrote:

Delta is currently calling ACS agents here in Atlanta if they are willing to return to work. Right now it’s an option. I have a F/A friend who I talked to yesterday. She is on leave and is schedule to return in September. She got a call to see if she wanted to return in August.


I find that hard to believe from the FA side. They are still begging FA's to extend or take new leaves. Deadlines keep being extended to put in for one and the communication has been PLEASE TAKE A LEAVE, PLEASE EXTEND, PLEASE RETIRE.


Only speaking from what’s happening here in Atlanta. That can be true in other bases. But I’m not a F/A so I’m not sure, but she confirm that she is coming back in August instead of September.


Everyone that is speaking about the reduction in LOAs/PLOCs being granted along with the call backs are missing one VERY BIG piece to this puzzle. All of the early retirement and voluntary package employees must be off the property on August 1. There may be a few that are extended here and there, but the expectation is that any package recipient is gone by 8/1. If package take rates to these (allegedly) amazing packages are as high as management seems to believe they will be, there could be a giant sucking sound coming from the field on 8/1 as stations try to operate a slightly larger schedule with a vastly smaller workforce that is then also peppered with lots of people still out on LOA. Got to make sure you look at the entire picture, not just the part you want to see.
 
jagraham
Posts: 1082
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:36 pm

lightsaber wrote:
klm617 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Total travel is almost, but not quite, at 15% of 2019 traffic:
https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

At the current pace of recovery, I hate to say it, DL should have cut more With traffic yield poor, and I expect through the next year, DL will have trouble making money.

Some cities will be Marginal. When traffic is 3x more, than we could talk about cutting too much.

Lightsaber


I agree still relying to much on ATL connections and most of that is low yielding Florida traffic. Delta needs to beef up it's east west connection opportunities which it has all but surrendered to UA and AA. Nobody the the Northeast or upper midwest want's to fly down to ATL to get a connection out west.

While relying on ATL isn't perfect, customers have JFK, BOS, DTW, and MSP for connections.

As to the West not using ATL, I'm amazed how often I would connect in ATL, but because of the 40 minute connection times, the routings worked. Otherwise SLC, MSP and DTW serve the West.

I am personally going to miss the LAX to Florida direct flights, but that just won't happen in today's market. Cest la vie.

Looking at the TSA numbers, traffic is at 16.5% of previous and only growing 2% a week or so.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput

In other words, DL hasn't cut enough. So if most is through ATL, that is the choice. My LAX based options are... too generous. The cash burn must be reduced. Business flying is going to be low for all of 2020.

Lightsaber


Airlines have to worry about keeping pilots current, and using planes enough that they don't require a maintenance visit. So operating cash flow can't be the only decider.

Also, there have been posts saying DL is calling some pepole back from furlough early. They must be seeing advance booking above 30% of last year's numbers.
 
jagraham
Posts: 1082
Joined: Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:10 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:38 pm

PBADC3 wrote:
Deltran757 wrote:
twicearound wrote:

I find that hard to believe from the FA side. They are still begging FA's to extend or take new leaves. Deadlines keep being extended to put in for one and the communication has been PLEASE TAKE A LEAVE, PLEASE EXTEND, PLEASE RETIRE.


Only speaking from what’s happening here in Atlanta. That can be true in other bases. But I’m not a F/A so I’m not sure, but she confirm that she is coming back in August instead of September.


Everyone that is speaking about the reduction in LOAs/PLOCs being granted along with the call backs are missing one VERY BIG piece to this puzzle. All of the early retirement and voluntary package employees must be off the property on August 1. There may be a few that are extended here and there, but the expectation is that any package recipient is gone by 8/1. If package take rates to these (allegedly) amazing packages are as high as management seems to believe they will be, there could be a giant sucking sound coming from the field on 8/1 as stations try to operate a slightly larger schedule with a vastly smaller workforce that is then also peppered with lots of people still out on LOA. Got to make sure you look at the entire picture, not just the part you want to see.


Have the packages been announced yet?
 
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NWAESC
Posts: 1483
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2007 1:02 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 2:54 pm

All of the package options have been rolled out to employees. The window to take one or not is open for almost another month, so I doubt will see any numbers on participation soon.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
avek00
Posts: 3250
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:56 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:09 pm

CNN Business: Delta is negotiating with lenders to avoid default

"New York (CNN Business) Delta is in danger of defaulting on some of its debt -- not because it doesn't have enough cash, but because it expects it cannot comply with the current terms of its borrowing.

The airline said in a filing Wednesday that it negotiating with lenders to change those terms. But it cautioned that "based on the reduction in demand that we have experienced and are continuing to experience as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, we expect that we will not be able to satisfy," some of those existing terms by early next year."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/10/business ... index.html

--

Virtually all US airlines will violate debt covenants given the magnitude of the travel demand plunge. If we better governed ourselves, Congress and the White House would be preparing a special new chapter of the Bankruptcy Code for airlines to be gradually revived over the next two years.
Live life to the fullest.
 
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LAXintl
Posts: 24521
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:24 pm

Delta issued an investor update today.

Says it now expects Q2 revenue outlook is lower than expected down - 90% on 85% capacity reduction.
Expects daily cash bleed of $40mil by July 1st. Targetting cutting cash burn to zero by New Years..

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/delta ... 2020-06-10
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
KarlB737
Posts: 2842
Joined: Sat Mar 20, 2004 9:51 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:38 pm

Courtesy: Airways

Delta Begins Progressive Return Of Aircraft To Service

https://airwaysmag.com/airlines/delta-return-service-covid19/
 
winginit
Posts: 2849
Joined: Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:23 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 6:08 pm

klm617 wrote:
Yes but I have it on good authority that NK will be operating 85% of it's precovid schedule out of DTW in July. Not to mention NK just added a bunch of flights at EWR and F9 did the same at PHL. The market is ripe for LCC carriers to expand in the near future.


Definitely not. Per the current schedule as loaded right now they're operating 80% in/out of DTW compared to July. As will likely be the case with all carriers, that's almost certainly going to drop instead of increase come Saturday's sked load. Both AA and DL have said that July's schedule will firm on 6/13, and that'll likely be the case for NK as well. I'd expect 70%.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:03 pm

Its interesting to see how the airlines are falling into different camps in their approach to restoring capacity and chasing the near-term leisure market.

DL is arguably being the most conservative, but UA, B6, and even AS to an extent are playing it pretty conservative at ramping up capacity for July.
Meanwhile, AA, WN and particularly NK, F9, G4 are really going after it. After all, the type of passengers that are mostly flying right now cater to their network and operation.

I would suspect that DL is talking often with its big corporate accounts to get an indication of how they see business travel resuming in the months ahead and when they see people getting back on the road. I suspect that is setting the cadence of their rebuild pace. All indications are that business and corporate travel is going to be very, very low through the summer months. Some will start getting back out in July/August, but really looking toward September timeframe to start to even begin the corporate travel recovery.

DL seems to really be focused on minimizing it cash burn, staying flexible with how it adds capacity and restores its network.

In this environment, with their cost structure and overhead I don't think its worth for them to chase the opportunistic VFR travel this summer. If their data shows their elites and corporate accounts aren't the ones travel, they are likely to stay at a level of capacity that minimizes their cash burn and maintains the core of their network.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 789
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:38 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Delta issued an investor update today.

Says it now expects Q2 revenue outlook is lower than expected down - 90% on 85% capacity reduction.
Expects daily cash bleed of $40mil by July 1st. Targetting cutting cash burn to zero by New Years..

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/delta ... 2020-06-10

Lower RASM clearing showing in those numbers. Delta has a LOT of infrastructure to support, while Southwest and American are going all in on Domestic market share. Going to be an interesting winter.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 789
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:38 pm

winginit wrote:
klm617 wrote:
Yes but I have it on good authority that NK will be operating 85% of it's precovid schedule out of DTW in July. Not to mention NK just added a bunch of flights at EWR and F9 did the same at PHL. The market is ripe for LCC carriers to expand in the near future.


Definitely not. Per the current schedule as loaded right now they're operating 80% in/out of DTW compared to July. As will likely be the case with all carriers, that's almost certainly going to drop instead of increase come Saturday's sked load. Both AA and DL have said that July's schedule will firm on 6/13, and that'll likely be the case for NK as well. I'd expect 70%.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 789
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:40 pm

The rumor mill on APC says that American asked YX to have all of the AA 175’s ready to fly by “mid-June”.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:04 am

I feel like we are seeing AA, WN, and NK pulling a “Leeroy Jenkins” on the industry.
 
User avatar
NWAESC
Posts: 1483
Joined: Thu Aug 30, 2007 1:02 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:53 am

Lol. Nicely referenced!
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:43 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yeah - I actually missed a couple - updated including flights through 6/10:

Since last week DL has taken the following aircraft out of storage:

BYH
4 A359

MCI
6 A321
3 B739

MZJ
2 B739
1 A321

VCV
1 B739


Through Tue 6/9:
4 A359
7 A321
6 B739

Planned for Wed 6/10:
1 A321 MZJ-ATL
2 A321 MCI-ATL
1 TBD MCI-JFK


Aircraft returned from storage Wed 6/10:
1 A321 MZJ-ATL
2 A321 MCI-ATL
1 B739 MCI-JFK
1 B739 MWH-SEA

Total aircraft returned through Wed 6/10:
4 A359
10 A321
8 B739

Planned for Thu 6/11:
1 A321 MZJ-ATL
 
nantoine
Posts: 32
Joined: Fri Apr 16, 2004 2:36 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:53 am

Just received notification from Air France that my DL231 CDG-RDU this autumn is cancelled... I'm now routed through ATL.

Strangely it still shows up on the Delta website.

Hopefully it will be back next summer. But I'm not holding my breath.
 
N766UA
Posts: 8318
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 1999 3:50 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:17 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I feel like we are seeing AA, WN, and NK pulling a “Leeroy Jenkins” on the industry.


I’m coming up with 32.33, uh, repeating of course, percentage... of survival...
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 7794
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:35 pm

Delta raised $3.5 Billion at 7.00% recently, and yesterday it filed a registration for another $1.25 Billion at 7.375% due 2025.

https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/C ... 41f5ef.pdf

The unencumbered asset bin is getting a little sparse, relatively speaking:

As of June 30, 2020, we expect to have approximately $6-7 billion of unencumbered collateral, primarily aircraft, with some
engines and spare parts, and in excess of $14 billion in cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments and borrowing capacity under our revolving credit
facilities, after giving effect to this offering.

Don't forget that liquidity is boosted by the grant and loan under the payroll support provisions of the CARES Act by $ 5.4 Billion
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5140
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:48 pm

AS isn't fully updated for July I believe
Image
https://viewfromthewing.com/data-shows- ... fferently/

In RDU, American went from 27% smaller than Delta in July 2019 to 62 percent larger than Delta in July 2020.
In BOS, Delta used to be 38% larger than American and now in July 2020 American will be 58% larger than Delta
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
klm617
Posts: 4903
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:35 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
AS isn't fully updated for July I believe
Image
https://viewfromthewing.com/data-shows- ... fferently/

In RDU, American went from 27% smaller than Delta in July 2019 to 62 percent larger than Delta in July 2020.
In BOS, Delta used to be 38% larger than American and now in July 2020 American will be 58% larger than Delta


I think what we are seeing is Boston being rightsized. There was so much excess capacity dumped into that market driving down the profitability of those flights. Every flight now is going to have generate the yields desired as airlines need to make money where ever they can and can no longer rely on other flights generating a large profit to fund these marginal flights, just because an airline is trying to gain market share.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
tphuang
Posts: 5077
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:22 am

Midwestindy wrote:
AS isn't fully updated for July I believe
Image
https://viewfromthewing.com/data-shows- ... fferently/

In RDU, American went from 27% smaller than Delta in July 2019 to 62 percent larger than Delta in July 2020.
In BOS, Delta used to be 38% larger than American and now in July 2020 American will be 58% larger than Delta


I think AA will be back as the legacy of choice in these markets. DL won't cut all non-hub/focus city flights, but a lot of them just don't make sense in a low demand environment.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 7952
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri Jun 12, 2020 2:46 am

Aircraft returned from storage Thu 6/11:
1 A321 MZJ-ATL

Total aircraft returned through Thu 6/11:
4 A359
11 A321
8 B739

Aircraft planned to return from storage Fri 6/12:
1 B739 MWH-MSP
1 B739 MWH-LAX
1 B739 MCI-MSP

Aircraft planned to return from storage Sat 6/13:
1 A321 VCV-MSP

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