This is a big deal. If U.S. residents or citizens aren't allowed into the EU, then the whole DL Europe schedule for the second half of the summer will most likely get cut back down to the current level, with just a few hub service to CDG and AMS for European nationals. The U.S. and Brazil have out of control epidemics, and I am increasingly skeptical that Americans are going to be able to enter most places until things calm down. This will be terribly hard on the big three, as they have made their staffing plans assuming a gradual resumption of Europe in the second part of the summer.
I disagree with you. Ed Bastian has said that international travel will not come close to being back for quite sometime. Domestic travel is the bread and butter for the US big 3 and it’s clearly slowly, but surely coming back. So that’s what they’re planning their staffing levels around. If you really want to get specific then I will agree with on Brazil and that they might be the last country to get service back to the U.S.
I hear what you are saying, but there is a significant difference between a gradually improving international curve (resuming China, and non-hub Europe) and international lockdown like we have now. The pilot displacement bid assumed a fully active A350 fleet and a good chunk of the 330s and 764s also operating. With the proposed EU rules against the US (presumably others will follow), they will either have to eat the cost by paying average line value to idled pilots, or face the chaos of more training churn by re-bidding again. Even more importantly, if the upward trajectory of COVID continues in sunbelt spots (LAX, PHX, IAH, MIA/FLL, and CLT among many others), domestic will also fall off.
The virus is totally unpredictable, so things may change course again. Rolling two-weak new cases were flat ten days ago and are inching upward about 4% a day, which is a lot. But Corona could easily pull back again and dissipate like it had around memorial day. The bottom line is the virus - and nothing else - is going to determine what the recovery looks like for Delta and everyone else.