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PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8072
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:59 am

Returned on Tue 6/30: (5)
1 B753 SBD-ATL (N590NW)
1 B753 SBD-ATL (N592NW)

1 A321 VCV-MSP (N367DN); rescheduled from Monday

1 B739 MCI-ATL
1 A320 MCI-MSP (N326US)

Total aircraft returned from storage through Tue 6/30:
4 A359 (All A359s out of storage and returned to service)
9 A320
29 A321
5 B738
39 B739
2 B752
9 B753
4 B763
----
104 Total

Planned for Wed 6/30:
1 A321 MZJ-LGA

Planned for Thu 7/1:
1 A321 MZJ-LAX




*Does not include reactivation of aircraft that had parked or stored at hub locations

11 B753s have returned to service:
N596NW has returned to scheduled service, had been kept in rolling parking at ATL and done periodic military charters over the past 2 months.
N594NW has returned to scheduled service, had been kept in rolling parking at MSP and done periodic military charters and one-off revenue flights over the past 2 months
N581NW departed MZJ on Fri 6/19
N591NW departed SBD on Thu 6/25
N589NW departed QRO on Thu 6/25
N582NW departed QRO on Fri 6/24
N593NW departed VCV on Fri 6/26
N588NW departed SBD on Sat 6/27
N583NW departed QRO on Mon 6/29
N590NW departed SBD on Tue 6/30
N592NW departed SBD on Tue 6/30

9 A320s have been removed from storage:
N326US, N334NW, N349NW, N350NA, N359NW, N361NW, N363NW, N364NW, N365NW
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5362
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jul 01, 2020 3:11 am

toltommy wrote:
millionsofmiles wrote:
-CVG and HNL will transition from bases to AFP’s with approximately 80 flight attendants each.
-ORM, SAS and TPM AFPs closing.
-SFO will transition from base to AFP; will retain current staffing but no backfill for attrition.
-EWR will no longer be a coterminal for NY-based crews. EWR flights will be flown by other bases and AFPs.
-PTS will remain open to support International flying but there will be no backfill due to attrition.


Sorry could you please explain the codes that are not standard airport codes?

FWIW, If I remember right AFPs take the first two letters of the airport code and then the last letter is the first letter from which actual base the AFP is ran by.

So for example, ORM is ORD with its "parent" base being MSP. SAS is SAN with its parent base being SLC. TPM is TPA with its parent base being MCO.

At least that is how i remember it being set up.
Coexstud wrote:
Surprised no one mentined it Delta closing inflight bases HNL, CVG no suprise tbh and SFO.

no need to mention it because it isn't what is happening. HNL/SFO/CVG are transitioning to AFPs which is almost meaningless to the frontline employee.

danipawa wrote:
TUI is retiring several B753, can Delta pick up this frames for domestic market?

in theory they could but there is no chance of it happening.
Delta still has too many planes right now as it is but probably more importantly Delta won't be operating any Rolls Royce powered 757s.
 
HVNandrew
Posts: 550
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:17 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
Coexstud wrote:
Surprised no one mentined it Delta closing inflight bases HNL, CVG no suprise tbh and SFO.

no need to mention it because it isn't what is happening. HNL/SFO/CVG are transitioning to AFPs which is almost meaningless to the frontline employee.

Could you please explain the difference between a "full" inflight FA base and an AFP? I know I have seen it discussed in other threads but I can't find exactly where.
 
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NWAESC
Posts: 1586
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:35 pm

An AFP is a satellite base. Besides being smaller, there's no management and very little (if any) infrastructure. There might not be briefing rooms, rest areas, etc.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 146
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:46 pm

Delta pilots received WARN notices this morning. I believe it was around 2500 of them but not certain on the number.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8072
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:59 am

News Round-up:

Additional flights for July:
~1000 more per day versus June
https://news.delta.com/more-flights-ser ... y-measures

Return of some in-flight service:
- Beer/wine on domestic flights over 500 miles in First and Comfort+
https://news.delta.com/beverage-service ... ded-safety

Additional SkyClubs reopening in July:
- ORD, DEN, MIA, BNA, MCO,PHX, SFO plus the clubs previously open primarily in hubs and focus cities
https://news.delta.com/select-delta-sky ... ion-guests
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8072
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:59 am

Returned on Wed 7/1: (1)
1 A321 MZJ-LGA

Total aircraft returned from storage through Wed 7/1:
4 A359 (All A359s out of storage and returned to service)
9 A320
30 A321
5 B738
39 B739
2 B752
9 B753
4 B763
----
105 Total

Planned for Thu 7/2: (2)
1 B753 SBD-ATL
1 A321 MZJ-LAX

*Does not include reactivation of aircraft that had parked or stored at hub locations

11 B753s have returned to service, 1 additional scheduled
N596NW has returned to scheduled service, had been kept in rolling parking at ATL and done periodic military charters over the past 2 months.
N594NW has returned to scheduled service, had been kept in rolling parking at MSP and done periodic military charters and one-off revenue flights over the past 2 months
N581NW departed MZJ on Fri 6/19
N591NW departed SBD on Thu 6/25
N589NW departed QRO on Thu 6/25
N582NW departed QRO on Fri 6/24
N593NW departed VCV on Fri 6/26
N588NW departed SBD on Sat 6/27
N583NW departed QRO on Mon 6/29
N590NW departed SBD on Tue 6/30
N592NW departed SBD on Tue 6/30

9 A320s have been removed from storage:
N326US, N334NW, N349NW, N350NA, N359NW, N361NW, N363NW, N364NW, N365NW
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8088
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 02, 2020 12:34 pm

www.reuters.com/article/us-delta-air-la ... SKBN2431HV

Reuters on Delta's international equity buys:

Delta Air Lines had a strategy for years: expand worldwide by buying stakes in airlines and partner with them while avoiding the cost and red tape of full acquisitions.

That strategy, more aggressive than those of any rival, could now backfire. Aeromexico this week became the third Delta partner to file for bankruptcy due to the coronavirus pandemic, following LATAM Airlines Group and Virgin Australia.

...

The investments had promise before the pandemic, but their valuations have since been crushed and could be leveled entirely if equity holders are wiped out, as is common in Chapter 11 reorganizations.

Even if that does not happen, Delta faces diluted equity stakes if other partners come in through the two airlines’ reorganizations, as well as a probable downsizing. Both factors could make them less promising partners to connect with its flights.


It will be interesting to see what DL is left with after their equity partners emerge from restructuring proceedings, and if big changes in network structure -- more reliance on partners to fly to international destinations -- come of it. That might take a rewrite of the pilot agreement, would it not?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8088
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:19 pm

Some tighter credit restrictions on a DL line of credit:

Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) said on Thursday it has amended its $2.65 billion credit facility agreement with covenants, which include restricting the U.S. airline’s ability to pay dividends or repurchase stock before Sept. 30, 2021.

The amendment also requires the company to maintain a minimum liquidity of $2 billion.


The SEC filing also notes this: The Amended Revolving Credit Facility, which was previously unsecured, is now secured by a first lien on our Pacific route authorities and certain related assets (the “Collateral”). We also have the option of pledging aircraft, among other assets, as additional Collateral.

Collateral Coverage Ratio(2) 1.60:1

(2) Defined as the ratio of (a) the value of the Collateral to (b) the sum of the aggregate outstanding obligations under the Amended Revolving Credit Facility
and certain other obligations.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-delt ... SKBN2433D3
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8072
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:27 am

Short update since on my phone this eve

Actual returned on Thu 7/2:
1 B753 SBD-ATL
1 A321 MZJ-LAX
1 B752 BHM-ATL (N655DL 75C) F72 sports charter configuration, first one to return from storage

Planned for Fri 7/3:
1 B738 MWH-SLC
 
FSDan
Posts: 3326
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:41 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-delta-air-latam-bankruptcy-analysis/deltas-global-growth-drive-stalled-by-latin-american-bankruptcies-idUSKBN2431HV

Reuters on Delta's international equity buys:

[i]Delta Air Lines had a strategy for years: expand worldwide by buying stakes in airlines and partner with them while avoiding the cost and red tape of full acquisitions.

That strategy, more aggressive than those of any rival, could now backfire. Aeromexico this week became the third Delta partner to file for bankruptcy due to the coronavirus pandemic, following LATAM Airlines Group and Virgin Australia.


Two odd things about the way they reported on this:
1) DL wasn't simply trying to "avoid the cost" of full acquisitions - they literally couldn't acquire any of these airlines as they are international carriers with a maximum cap of 49% foreign ownership. In several instances they did invest up to the limit.
2) Virgin Australia is/was a partner of DL, but not an investment. Sort of odd to lump them in with AM and LA in the context of investments that have soured.

As someone pointed out in another thread, the main benefit of these investments to DL was actually the partnership aspect. They weren't investing in AM, VS, KE, etc. because they thought they'd be making 12% ROI through dividends and selling their positions at a profit years down the road... rather, they were seeking to establish footholds in important markets where they didn't have an easy organic path to growth (LHR, MEX, Australia, etc.). While there's certainly more uncertainty in these partnerships now, I'd expect them to continue unless they were truly not beneficial to the partner airlines at all.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:43 am

user error
Last edited by MIflyer12 on Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8088
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:45 am

Your points #1 and #2 are certainly correct. I thought their VA reference was odd, too, in a story broadly concerned with investments, not codeshares.

If they weren't going to make good ROI from dividends and appreciation in equity stakes, they needed to make it through synergies - people flying DL who would otherwise not. Maybe that's corporate contracts, like firms needing more London to swing a broader book of business to Delta. Maybe it's added foreign point of sale, like an AM codeshare of DL metal MEX-LAX. If you're going to tie up big money it needs to earn a return... in the U.S., anyway.
 
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DL747400
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:32 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Some tighter credit restrictions on a DL line of credit:

Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) said on Thursday it has amended its $2.65 billion credit facility agreement with covenants, which include restricting the U.S. airline’s ability to pay dividends or repurchase stock before Sept. 30, 2021.

The amendment also requires the company to maintain a minimum liquidity of $2 billion.


A legally required disclosure, but otherwise worthless and completely non-newsworthy. These "tighter restrictions" are totally meaningless. There is no money to pay dividends or to make stock buybacks anyway, so it wasn't going to happen in 2020 or 2021 even before these additional "restrictions" were implemented.

And as to the minimum liquidity requirement, if any of the largest US carriers get down to having only $2 billion in liquidity, it's time to begin selling assets or file for C11.
From First to Worst: The history of Airliners.net.

All posts reflect my opinions, not those of my employer or any other company.
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:05 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
It will be interesting to see what DL is left with after their equity partners emerge from restructuring proceedings, and if big changes in network structure -- more reliance on partners to fly to international destinations -- come of it. That might take a rewrite of the pilot agreement, would it not?


It makes sense for DL to serve international destinations such as DUB, LIS, and HND nonstop from the U.S. as connecting to DUB or LIS from the U.S. through CDG on AF, connecting to DUB or LIS from the U.S. through AMS on KL, or connecting to TYO from the U.S. through ICN on KE all involve significant backtracking and connections through a third foreign country.

It also makes sense for DL to continue serving Central America and Colombia nonstop from its main ATL hub as connecting to Central America or Colombia from ATL through MEX on AM would involve significant backtracking. DL is also able operate nonstop flights to Central America and Colombia out of ATL on narrowbody aircraft, and DL also has significant connecting feed from other U.S. destinations to support nonstop service to Central America and Colombia out of its ATL hub.
 
evank516
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:28 pm

Upgauges in August: JFK-ORD gains 1x A220 with the other 2 being CR9s, and JFK-DTW goes all A319/A320 (previously 1x A319 1x A320, 2x CR9 a couple of weeks ago).
 
gsg013
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:24 pm

evank516 wrote:
Upgauges in August: JFK-ORD gains 1x A220 with the other 2 being CR9s, and JFK-DTW goes all A319/A320 (previously 1x A319 1x A320, 2x CR9 a couple of weeks ago).


JFK-BNA is going A220-100 from CR-900 or ER-175 in August as well. This is the first time except for a random one off that NYC-Nashville is going mainline
 
evank516
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:54 pm

gsg013 wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Upgauges in August: JFK-ORD gains 1x A220 with the other 2 being CR9s, and JFK-DTW goes all A319/A320 (previously 1x A319 1x A320, 2x CR9 a couple of weeks ago).


JFK-BNA is going A220-100 from CR-900 or ER-175 in August as well. This is the first time except for a random one off that NYC-Nashville is going mainline


Well that's interesting too. I think DTW and BNA are competitive responses to B6. ORD, while welcomed, lacks logic in my eyes except for the fact that they compete with both B6 and AA on the route, but they had the competition before the pandemic and kept it all RJs then.
 
deltal1011man
Posts: 5362
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 9:17 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:27 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-delta-air-latam-bankruptcy-analysis/deltas-global-growth-drive-stalled-by-latin-american-bankruptcies-idUSKBN2431HV

Reuters on Delta's international equity buys:

Delta Air Lines had a strategy for years: expand worldwide by buying stakes in airlines and partner with them while avoiding the cost and red tape of full acquisitions.

That strategy, more aggressive than those of any rival, could now backfire. Aeromexico this week became the third Delta partner to file for bankruptcy due to the coronavirus pandemic, following LATAM Airlines Group and Virgin Australia.

...

The investments had promise before the pandemic, but their valuations have since been crushed and could be leveled entirely if equity holders are wiped out, as is common in Chapter 11 reorganizations.

Even if that does not happen, Delta faces diluted equity stakes if other partners come in through the two airlines’ reorganizations, as well as a probable downsizing. Both factors could make them less promising partners to connect with its flights.


It will be interesting to see what DL is left with after their equity partners emerge from restructuring proceedings, and if big changes in network structure -- more reliance on partners to fly to international destinations -- come of it. That might take a rewrite of the pilot agreement, would it not?

in short yes.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3326
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:16 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
If they weren't going to make good ROI from dividends and appreciation in equity stakes, they needed to make it through synergies - people flying DL who would otherwise not. Maybe that's corporate contracts, like firms needing more London to swing a broader book of business to Delta. Maybe it's added foreign point of sale, like an AM codeshare of DL metal MEX-LAX. If you're going to tie up big money it needs to earn a return... in the U.S., anyway.


True, no reason to invest if you don't think you can benefit from it in some way!

Even with the equity stakes in some of these airlines now likely worthless (or close to it), the benefits of synergies/corporate contracts/foreign point of sale aren't off the table until 1) the JVs and/or codeshares are terminated, or 2) the airlines are dissolved in bankruptcy. In other words, DL's "worthless" investments may actually have gained some long term benefit for DL - we likely can't make that call until 2+ years down the road at the earliest. But if VS comes out of administration and DL+VS are able to remain a solid #2 in the U.S.-LHR market, if AM comes out of Ch 11 and remains the largest Mexican airline and biggest slot holder at MEX, and if LA comes out of Ch 11 and DL+LA are able to move forward with their JV and be very competitive in the U.S.-South America market, then it's less important that DL's equity stakes are diluted/gone.
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
Josh76040
Posts: 8
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:22 pm

FSDan wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
If they weren't going to make good ROI from dividends and appreciation in equity stakes, they needed to make it through synergies - people flying DL who would otherwise not. Maybe that's corporate contracts, like firms needing more London to swing a broader book of business to Delta. Maybe it's added foreign point of sale, like an AM codeshare of DL metal MEX-LAX. If you're going to tie up big money it needs to earn a return... in the U.S., anyway.


True, no reason to invest if you don't think you can benefit from it in some way!

Even with the equity stakes in some of these airlines now likely worthless (or close to it), the benefits of synergies/corporate contracts/foreign point of sale aren't off the table until 1) the JVs and/or codeshares are terminated, or 2) the airlines are dissolved in bankruptcy. In other words, DL's "worthless" investments may actually have gained some long term benefit for DL - we likely can't make that call until 2+ years down the road at the earliest. But if VS comes out of administration and DL+VS are able to remain a solid #2 in the U.S.-LHR market, if AM comes out of Ch 11 and remains the largest Mexican airline and biggest slot holder at MEX, and if LA comes out of Ch 11 and DL+LA are able to move forward with their JV and be very competitive in the U.S.-South America market, then it's less important that DL's equity stakes are diluted/gone.


Multiple investments gone bad with billions in equity just evaporated. There’s no way to put lipstick on this pig. The new entities...under new Post-restructuring management...have no allegiance to Delta and could easily be swayed to another alliance. “Long-term benefit”? Hardly. More like “Delta praying for a miracle.”
 
Josh76040
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu May 28, 2020 11:02 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Jul 06, 2020 11:58 pm

FSDan wrote:
Josh76040 wrote:
Even with the equity stakes in some of these airlines now likely worthless (or close to it), the benefits of synergies/corporate contracts/foreign point of sale aren't off the table until 1) the JVs and/or codeshares are terminated, or 2) the airlines are dissolved in bankruptcy. In other words, DL's "worthless" investments may actually have gained some long term benefit for DL - we likely can't make that call until 2+ years down the road at the earliest. But if VS comes out of administration and DL+VS are able to remain a solid #2 in the U.S.-LHR market, if AM comes out of Ch 11 and remains the largest Mexican airline and biggest slot holder at MEX, and if LA comes out of Ch 11 and DL+LA are able to move forward with their JV and be very competitive in the U.S.-South America market, then it's less important that DL's equity stakes are diluted/gone.


Multiple investments gone bad with billions in equity just evaporated. There’s no way to put lipstick on this pig. The new entities...under new Post-restructuring management...have no allegiance to Delta and could easily be swayed to another alliance. “Long-term benefit”? Hardly. More like “Delta praying for a miracle.”


FSDan

You’re incorrectly ascribing preferences of pre-BK managements in place at LA, AM, VS, etc. to the new management of a post-BK reorganized entity In each case. New management might have a different vision than the old management. The BKs not only wipe out DL’s equity but they also potentially wipe out loyalty to DL...and to business models and relationships that didn’t work.

Very troubling times ahead for DL.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3326
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:09 am

Josh76040 wrote:
FSDan

You’re incorrectly ascribing preferences of pre-BK managements in place at LA, AM, VS, etc. to the new management of a post-BK reorganized entity In each case. New management might have a different vision than the old management. The BKs not only wipe out DL’s equity but they also potentially wipe out loyalty to DL...and to business models and relationships that didn’t work.

Very troubling times ahead for DL.


I guess I see the chance of new management having a different opinion on these JVs as way less likely than you do. Dissolving existing JVs, reversing course on alliance membership, etc. aren't exactly free and easy decisions to make and execute...
This is my signature until I think of a better one.
 
onwFan
Topic Author
Posts: 448
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:12 am

FSDan wrote:
Josh76040 wrote:
Multiple investments gone bad with billions in equity just evaporated. There’s no way to put lipstick on this pig. The new entities...under new Post-restructuring management...have no allegiance to Delta and could easily be swayed to another alliance. “Long-term benefit”? Hardly. More like “Delta praying for a miracle.”


You're way over-dramatizing this. Easy to sway DL's partners to another alliance? LA just left another alliance and has said they won't join one going forward, VS has never shown much interest in joining an alliance, and AM to the best of my knowledge has never shown any indication that they would rather partner with other airlines (not to mention the deeply entrenched ex-DL people who are at AM, as has been mentioned by other posters here). AF/KL and KE are even less likely to want to change things up. Which partners were you thinking were easy to flip, and why?

I can definitely tell you one that is easy to flip - LATAM - they came to DL for the money, they will definitely go wherever there is more money.
 
HNLSLCPDX
Posts: 215
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:07 am

Both DL and LA want to keep the partnership. In my opinion I think DL needs to leave skyteam and just have its partners of AM, LA, MU, KL, AF, VS, WS, KE, and VA. Again would like to see a TK and DL partnership happen someday. Also an African and se Asia partner would be good too, and I don’t know if that could be VN or someone else.
 
Alias1024
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Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jul 07, 2020 2:30 am

onwFan wrote:
FSDan wrote:
Josh76040 wrote:
Multiple investments gone bad with billions in equity just evaporated. There’s no way to put lipstick on this pig. The new entities...under new Post-restructuring management...have no allegiance to Delta and could easily be swayed to another alliance. “Long-term benefit”? Hardly. More like “Delta praying for a miracle.”


You're way over-dramatizing this. Easy to sway DL's partners to another alliance? LA just left another alliance and has said they won't join one going forward, VS has never shown much interest in joining an alliance, and AM to the best of my knowledge has never shown any indication that they would rather partner with other airlines (not to mention the deeply entrenched ex-DL people who are at AM, as has been mentioned by other posters here). AF/KL and KE are even less likely to want to change things up. Which partners were you thinking were easy to flip, and why?

I can definitely tell you one that is easy to flip - LATAM - they came to DL for the money, they will definitely go wherever there is more money.


Why would LATAM be easy to flip?

A joint venture with AA was already rejected, so that seems like an unlikely choice for them to return. United is in the process of forming a JV with Avianca, Copa, and Azul. At this point I’m not sure they’d walk away from it to start from scratch with LATAM.

I also don’t see UA being so much better a fit that LATAM would walk away from DL for UA. And none of the US3 are going to be in a position to throw cash at LATAM.

Barring assurances that a new LA/AA JV application would be approved by all governments, what’s the motivation for LATAM to leave the DL partnership?
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
onwFan
Topic Author
Posts: 448
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jul 07, 2020 3:04 am

Alias1024 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
FSDan wrote:

You're way over-dramatizing this. Easy to sway DL's partners to another alliance? LA just left another alliance and has said they won't join one going forward, VS has never shown much interest in joining an alliance, and AM to the best of my knowledge has never shown any indication that they would rather partner with other airlines (not to mention the deeply entrenched ex-DL people who are at AM, as has been mentioned by other posters here). AF/KL and KE are even less likely to want to change things up. Which partners were you thinking were easy to flip, and why?

I can definitely tell you one that is easy to flip - LATAM - they came to DL for the money, they will definitely go wherever there is more money.


Why would LATAM be easy to flip?

A joint venture with AA was already rejected, so that seems like an unlikely choice for them to return. United is in the process of forming a JV with Avianca, Copa, and Azul. At this point I’m not sure they’d walk away from it to start from scratch with LATAM.

I also don’t see UA being so much better a fit that LATAM would walk away from DL for UA. And none of the US3 are going to be in a position to throw cash at LATAM.

Barring assurances that a new LA/AA JV application would be approved by all governments, what’s the motivation for LATAM to leave the DL partnership?

A lot of that will depend on what shape LATAM emerges from bankruptcy. It is highly doubtful that UA considers AV to be an asset anymore - their Peruvian operations (they even had a Brazilian operation, although separate) were the major component that set the apart form Copa’s network. I don’t see both Copa and AV in bed with UA long term. I think we will see AV and LATAM slowly stepping away from each other’s territories in an attempt to shore up their operations. Latin American aviation is certainly gearing up for another shake-up.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8072
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:16 pm

Aircraft return from storage update, was off the grid for a bit over the long holiday weekend:

Actual returned on Thu 7/2: (3)
1 A321 MZJ-LAX
1 B752 BHM-ATL (N655DL 75C) F72 sports charter configuration, first one to return from storage
1 B753 SBD-ATL

Actual returned on Fri 7/3: (2)
1 B738 MWH-SLC
1 A321 VCV-MSP (N315DN)

Actual returned on Sat 7/4: (2)
1 B739 MCI-CVG
1 B739 MCI-MSP

Actual returned on Sun 7/5:(1)
1 A321 MZJ-ATL

Actual returned on Mon 7/6:(4)
1 A321 VCV-SLC (N317DN)
1 A321 MCI-BOS
1 B752 SBD-SLC (N385DA)
1 B752 MZJ-JFK

Actual returned on Tue 7/7:(3)
1 A320 SBD-BOS (N355NW)
1 A321 VCV-SLC (N313DN)
1 B752 MZJ-JFK

Total aircraft returned from storage through Tue 7/7:
4 A359 (All A359s out of storage and returned to service)
10 A320
36 A321
6 B738
41 B739
6 B752
10 B753
4 B763
----
120 Total

Planned for Wed 7/8: (4)
1 A320 SBD-SEA (N352NW)
1 B739 MZJ-SEA
1 B739 MCI-ATL
1 A333 BHM-MSP (N809NW) - First A333 to depart from a storage facility

*Does not include reactivation of aircraft that had parked or stored at hub locations

12 B753s have returned to service
N584NW, N585NW, N586NW, N587NW remain still in storage/maintenance

10 A320s have been removed from storage:
N326US, N334NW, N349NW, N350NA, N355NW, N359NW, N361NW, N363NW, N364NW, N365NW
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:20 am

onwFan wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
I can definitely tell you one that is easy to flip - LATAM - they came to DL for the money, they will definitely go wherever there is more money.


Why would LATAM be easy to flip?

A joint venture with AA was already rejected, so that seems like an unlikely choice for them to return. United is in the process of forming a JV with Avianca, Copa, and Azul. At this point I’m not sure they’d walk away from it to start from scratch with LATAM.

I also don’t see UA being so much better a fit that LATAM would walk away from DL for UA. And none of the US3 are going to be in a position to throw cash at LATAM.

Barring assurances that a new LA/AA JV application would be approved by all governments, what’s the motivation for LATAM to leave the DL partnership?

A lot of that will depend on what shape LATAM emerges from bankruptcy. It is highly doubtful that UA considers AV to be an asset anymore - their Peruvian operations (they even had a Brazilian operation, although separate) were the major component that set the apart form Copa’s network. I don’t see both Copa and AV in bed with UA long term. I think we will see AV and LATAM slowly stepping away from each other’s territories in an attempt to shore up their operations. Latin American aviation is certainly gearing up for another shake-up.


Per your own words, if LATAM only cares about where they can find more it's not like UA or any other potential JV partner would be in any better financial position than DL.

I get that you hate DL and I get that the $2B they put into LATAM might be a wash, but no one has actually offered a reason why LA or AM or VS, assuming they come out the other end of this would have any reason to walk away from JVs that, by all accounts, work well enough.
 
onwFan
Topic Author
Posts: 448
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Jul 08, 2020 3:31 am

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:

Why would LATAM be easy to flip?

A joint venture with AA was already rejected, so that seems like an unlikely choice for them to return. United is in the process of forming a JV with Avianca, Copa, and Azul. At this point I’m not sure they’d walk away from it to start from scratch with LATAM.

I also don’t see UA being so much better a fit that LATAM would walk away from DL for UA. And none of the US3 are going to be in a position to throw cash at LATAM.

Barring assurances that a new LA/AA JV application would be approved by all governments, what’s the motivation for LATAM to leave the DL partnership?

A lot of that will depend on what shape LATAM emerges from bankruptcy. It is highly doubtful that UA considers AV to be an asset anymore - their Peruvian operations (they even had a Brazilian operation, although separate) were the major component that set the apart form Copa’s network. I don’t see both Copa and AV in bed with UA long term. I think we will see AV and LATAM slowly stepping away from each other’s territories in an attempt to shore up their operations. Latin American aviation is certainly gearing up for another shake-up.


Per your own words, if LATAM only cares about where they can find more it's not like UA or any other potential JV partner would be in any better financial position than DL.

I get that you hate DL and I get that the $2B they put into LATAM might be a wash, but no one has actually offered a reason why LA or AM or VS, assuming they come out the other end of this would have any reason to walk away from JVs that, by all accounts, work well enough.

Yeah, you are right - the JVs work so well that almost every single one of those JV partners are not able to make profits even in the best of times.
 
gdavis003
Posts: 122
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:59 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 1:32 am

N805NW (A333) is en route from BHM to SEA. It was two hours late departing BHM but well worth the wait, as there was plenty of other action. Awesome to see it depart today
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8072
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:54 am

Actual for Wed 7/8: (6)
1 A320 SBD-SEA (N352NW)
1 B739 MZJ-SEA
1 B739 MZJ-LAX
1 B739 MCI-ATL
1 A333 BHM-MSP (N809NW) - First A333 to depart from a storage facility
1 A333 BHM-SEA (N805NW)

Total aircraft returned from storage through Tue 7/7:
4 A359 (All A359s out of storage and returned to service)
11 A320
36 A321
6 B738
44 B739
6 B752
10 B753
4 B763
2 A333
----
126 Total

Planned for Thu 7/9: (6)
1 A320 SBD-MIA (N325US) (One of older batch of A320s from 1992)
1 A320 SBD-MIA
1 A320 SBD-CLT (N360NW)
1 A320 SBD-CLT
1 B752 SBD-ATL (N670DN)
1 B739 MCI-SEA

Planned for Fri 7/10: (3)
1 A320 SAL-ATL (N366NW)
1 A319 SAL-ATL (N363NB)
1 A319 SAL-ATL

*Does not include reactivation of aircraft that had been parked or stored at hub locations

12 B753s have returned to service
N584NW, N585NW, N586NW, N587NW remain still in storage/maintenance

11 A320s have been removed from storage:
N326US, N334NW, N349NW, N350NA, N352NW, N355NW, N359NW, N361NW, N363NW, N364NW, N365NW
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 2:21 pm

onwFan wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
onwFan wrote:
A lot of that will depend on what shape LATAM emerges from bankruptcy. It is highly doubtful that UA considers AV to be an asset anymore - their Peruvian operations (they even had a Brazilian operation, although separate) were the major component that set the apart form Copa’s network. I don’t see both Copa and AV in bed with UA long term. I think we will see AV and LATAM slowly stepping away from each other’s territories in an attempt to shore up their operations. Latin American aviation is certainly gearing up for another shake-up.


Per your own words, if LATAM only cares about where they can find more it's not like UA or any other potential JV partner would be in any better financial position than DL.

I get that you hate DL and I get that the $2B they put into LATAM might be a wash, but no one has actually offered a reason why LA or AM or VS, assuming they come out the other end of this would have any reason to walk away from JVs that, by all accounts, work well enough.

Yeah, you are right - the JVs work so well that almost every single one of those JV partners are not able to make profits even in the best of times.


Certainly more than they would without access to DL code, feed, and FF members. And when things were "the best of times", airlines like AM, AFKL, and KE were profitable, if not particularly so.
 
User avatar
pitbosflyer
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:18 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:37 pm

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
onwFan wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:

Per your own words, if LATAM only cares about where they can find more it's not like UA or any other potential JV partner would be in any better financial position than DL.

I get that you hate DL and I get that the $2B they put into LATAM might be a wash, but no one has actually offered a reason why LA or AM or VS, assuming they come out the other end of this would have any reason to walk away from JVs that, by all accounts, work well enough.

Yeah, you are right - the JVs work so well that almost every single one of those JV partners are not able to make profits even in the best of times.


Certainly more than they would without access to DL code, feed, and FF members. And when things were "the best of times", airlines like AM, AFKL, and KE were profitable, if not particularly so.


It can also be argued VS was on the road to recovery, bolstered mostly by the gained efficiencies from their DL - AFKL JV for transatlantic traffic. They were estimating to turn a profit in 2021 before the corona-virus. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-virg ... SKCN1RM1GT
A:320/21, 333, 343, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 763, 772 || MD80, MD90 || E:145, 170, 175, 190, 195 || CR200, 700, 900
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 8088
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 3:54 pm

onwFan wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
onwFan wrote:
A lot of that will depend on what shape LATAM emerges from bankruptcy. It is highly doubtful that UA considers AV to be an asset anymore - their Peruvian operations (they even had a Brazilian operation, although separate) were the major component that set the apart form Copa’s network. I don’t see both Copa and AV in bed with UA long term. I think we will see AV and LATAM slowly stepping away from each other’s territories in an attempt to shore up their operations. Latin American aviation is certainly gearing up for another shake-up.


Per your own words, if LATAM only cares about where they can find more it's not like UA or any other potential JV partner would be in any better financial position than DL.

I get that you hate DL and I get that the $2B they put into LATAM might be a wash, but no one has actually offered a reason why LA or AM or VS, assuming they come out the other end of this would have any reason to walk away from JVs that, by all accounts, work well enough.

Yeah, you are right - the JVs work so well that almost every single one of those JV partners are not able to make profits even in the best of times.


DL didn't buy those stakes solely for the purpose of a stream of earnings from LA, AM or VS. They bought them for revenue synergies, too: passengers will now fly DL because they can offer more frequencies to LON, and extensive networks in Mexico and S America; Latin American passengers (point of sale strength) who can fly DL from Latin America or connect to DL services to the U.S. and Canada. Those earnings largely don't show up in the earnings statements of AM/LA/VS. Have you ever done any valuation modeling?
 
ShinyAndChrome
Posts: 280
Joined: Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:53 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:00 pm

pitbosflyer wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
onwFan wrote:
Yeah, you are right - the JVs work so well that almost every single one of those JV partners are not able to make profits even in the best of times.


Certainly more than they would without access to DL code, feed, and FF members. And when things were "the best of times", airlines like AM, AFKL, and KE were profitable, if not particularly so.


It can also be argued VS was on the road to recovery, bolstered mostly by the gained efficiencies from their DL - AFKL JV for transatlantic traffic. They were estimating to turn a profit in 2021 before the corona-virus. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-virg ... SKCN1RM1GT


Of course. One could even argue that VS might not have even made it to 2020 without that very same DL relationship and the benefits it brings.
 
User avatar
klm617
Posts: 5037
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:06 pm

But does Delta really care if the carriers they invest in are profitable. From my perspective I think Delta just likes to have control or a say in what routes everyone flies. The ones that Delta feels are to expensive for them to operate they just want a partner they can dump those routes of onto so they don't have to operate them themselves while still offering their customers access to these routes.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
User avatar
pitbosflyer
Posts: 380
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 6:18 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:39 pm

klm617 wrote:
But does Delta really care if the carriers they invest in are profitable. From my perspective I think Delta just likes to have control or a say in what routes everyone flies. The ones that Delta feels are to expensive for them to operate they just want a partner they can dump those routes of onto so they don't have to operate them themselves while still offering their customers access to these routes.


I agree with this take. They seem to have found a way to offer a very well filled out global network offering in a more cost efficient way then having it all on their metal. While gaining additional say over route coordination in their JV than they would get just from their SkyTeam partners. Not to mention all of the slot access they gain at LHR from VS.
A:320/21, 333, 343, 346 || B:717, 735, 737, 738, 739, 752, 753, 763, 772 || MD80, MD90 || E:145, 170, 175, 190, 195 || CR200, 700, 900
 
onwFan
Topic Author
Posts: 448
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 4:51 pm

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
pitbosflyer wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:

Certainly more than they would without access to DL code, feed, and FF members. And when things were "the best of times", airlines like AM, AFKL, and KE were profitable, if not particularly so.


It can also be argued VS was on the road to recovery, bolstered mostly by the gained efficiencies from their DL - AFKL JV for transatlantic traffic. They were estimating to turn a profit in 2021 before the corona-virus. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-virg ... SKCN1RM1GT


Of course. One could even argue that VS might not have even made it to 2020 without that very same DL relationship and the benefits it brings.

That is so not true. If they were not a DL partner, they might have been in a JV with UA, whose network was so much better of a fit for VS. DL bying the VS stake blocked out UA, just like they did with G3. With a UA partnership they would have been able to even sustain more relevant business destinations like EWR and ORD (and made more money) instead of ATL or DTW.
 
onwFan
Topic Author
Posts: 448
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:00 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
onwFan wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:

Per your own words, if LATAM only cares about where they can find more it's not like UA or any other potential JV partner would be in any better financial position than DL.

I get that you hate DL and I get that the $2B they put into LATAM might be a wash, but no one has actually offered a reason why LA or AM or VS, assuming they come out the other end of this would have any reason to walk away from JVs that, by all accounts, work well enough.

Yeah, you are right - the JVs work so well that almost every single one of those JV partners are not able to make profits even in the best of times.


DL didn't buy those stakes solely for the purpose of a stream of earnings from LA, AM or VS. They bought them for revenue synergies, too: passengers will now fly DL because they can offer more frequencies to LON, and extensive networks in Mexico and S America; Latin American passengers (point of sale strength) who can fly DL from Latin America or connect to DL services to the U.S. and Canada. Those earnings largely don't show up in the earnings statements of AM/LA/VS. Have you ever done any valuation modeling?

Again, that is talking from DL’s point of view. Obviously it benefits DL. Given that the partners were all struggling, it is hardly arguable that a DL partnership was the best option for any of the partners with the possible exception of AF/KL. They were DL partners because DL bought them and blocked off others from entering. Which was my premise for whether the partners are flippable.
 
User avatar
enilria
Posts: 10256
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 7:15 pm

MEMO: DL Will Pause Capacity Growth Due to Bookings Impact from "Sunbelt Surge"

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:02 pm

Anybody have the full memo? Sounds like Florida has slowed from the Corona spike and that was a big part of traffic gains.

“The continued growth of the virus through the Sun Belt, coupled with quarantine restrictions being implemented in large markets in the northern part of the country, give us renewed caution about further schedule additions at this time,” Bastian said. His comments raised questions as to whether Delta may pull back some of its summer flying. It has added 1,000 flights in July and another 1,000 this August, but had already said it was unlikely to add many more for the rest of the year. ... Bastian again warned the recovery “is likely to be lengthy and slow” and encouraged employees to sign up for early exit packages by a July 13 deadline to minimize involuntary furloughs in the fall.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/07 ... delta.html
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 667
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: MEMO: DL Will Pause Capacity Growth Due to Bookings Impact from "Sunbelt Surge"

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:21 pm

I expect AA to do same. I wouldn't be surprised if this already additional capacity gets cut for any airline with a sizable presence in Sunbelt states-NK, AA, DL, B6.

In addition the resurgence of COVID 19 cases there's:
Additional lockdowns and probably more to come
Self quarantining for individuals coming from these states (albeit probably unenforceable)
The CARES provision that provides for $600 of Federal Unemployment benefits ending 7/31 with so far no appetite to continue (although that could change)
The end of Moratorium periods for mortgage and rent payments, car payments and credit card payments
 
32andBelow
Posts: 4974
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: MEMO: DL Will Pause Capacity Growth Due to Bookings Impact from "Sunbelt Surge"

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:26 pm

Pause growth or pull back?
 
n9801f
Posts: 229
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:37 pm

ShinyAndChrome wrote:
but no one has actually offered a reason why LA or AM or VS, assuming they come out the other end of this would have any reason to walk away from JVs that, by all accounts, work well enough.

The reason these carriers are easy to flip is that Delta wasn't a great network fit for them to begin with and now they're freed to remarry

For instance LA needs a partner who is strong in MIA, AM needs a partner with a hub in Texas, and VS would prefer a partner with LHR slots of its own
AA and UA have stronger networks with hubs in larger O-D markets that these and other partner prefer

Knowing this, Delta paid a hefty "dowry" to attract partners
And in exchange for the dowry, Delta gets lots of say in the JV

Now that Delta's ownership stake is likely to be taken by the bankruptcy court and given to creditors, Delta will lose influence and its former brides will be able to find more attractive suitors
 
User avatar
klm617
Posts: 5037
Joined: Sat Jul 04, 2015 8:57 pm

Re: MEMO: DL Will Pause Capacity Growth Due to Bookings Impact from "Sunbelt Surge"

Thu Jul 09, 2020 5:42 pm

enilria wrote:
Anybody have the full memo? Sounds like Florida has slowed from the Corona spike and that was a big part of traffic gains.

“The continued growth of the virus through the Sun Belt, coupled with quarantine restrictions being implemented in large markets in the northern part of the country, give us renewed caution about further schedule additions at this time,” Bastian said. His comments raised questions as to whether Delta may pull back some of its summer flying. It has added 1,000 flights in July and another 1,000 this August, but had already said it was unlikely to add many more for the rest of the year. ... Bastian again warned the recovery “is likely to be lengthy and slow” and encouraged employees to sign up for early exit packages by a July 13 deadline to minimize involuntary furloughs in the fall.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/07 ... delta.html


Again Delta trying to focus too much of their operations on ATL. If there ever was a time for Delta to spread their network out more evenly it would be now. There is no need for hourly service from Atlanta to Florida when no one is flying.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
Lootess
Posts: 463
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:40 pm

Certainly a lot of hogwash talk about AM wanting to change course, CEO Andrés isn't going anywhere and Delta loaned him Mike as his COO for a time. There is no mumblings in Atlanta that anything is going to change with AM.
 
n9801f
Posts: 229
Joined: Tue Apr 13, 2004 8:29 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 7:32 pm

Lootess wrote:
Certainly a lot of hogwash talk about AM wanting to change course, CEO Andrés isn't going anywhere and Delta loaned him Mike as his COO for a time. There is no mumblings in Atlanta that anything is going to change with AM.


You missed the point that Andres is not fully in charge anymore. The bankruptcy judge is.

And the judge will decide things based on the interest of creditors, not good old boy favors.
 
Lootess
Posts: 463
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:52 pm

Bankrupcy judges don't run an airline in a Chapter 11 restructure, material changes that affect creditors and exiting leases is brought forth by the executives for the court's approval. The judge doesn't run the business, nice try though.

alfa164 wrote:
Lootess wrote:
Certainly a lot of hogwash talk about AM wanting to change course, CEO Andrés isn't going anywhere and Delta loaned him Mike as his COO for a time. There is no mumblings in Atlanta that anything is going to change with AM.


But you have a lot of jealous AA fanboys/DL haters trying to poison the water here...


:roll:


Yes, Star Alliance and OW still sour their Mexican airline left and failed them miserably.
 
Dalmd88
Posts: 3139
Joined: Fri Jul 28, 2000 3:19 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:58 pm

DL announced the closing of three line mtc stations this week. All are relatively small with less than 20 AMT each, BDL, CHS, and SAV. No firm date announced, just by the end of the year.

They made the announcement before the retirement/early departure window closes which was a nice move. BDL is the more senior of the three and I suspect many are close to retirement window and would now elect to take the package over a move through the realignment bid that will be coming.

The memo said to expect many more small line stations to see numbers cut to become single shift operations. I personally was expecting more to be completely than just three.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3326
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Thu Jul 09, 2020 10:36 pm

onwFan wrote:
ShinyAndChrome wrote:
onwFan wrote:
A lot of that will depend on what shape LATAM emerges from bankruptcy. It is highly doubtful that UA considers AV to be an asset anymore - their Peruvian operations (they even had a Brazilian operation, although separate) were the major component that set the apart form Copa’s network. I don’t see both Copa and AV in bed with UA long term. I think we will see AV and LATAM slowly stepping away from each other’s territories in an attempt to shore up their operations. Latin American aviation is certainly gearing up for another shake-up.


Per your own words, if LATAM only cares about where they can find more it's not like UA or any other potential JV partner would be in any better financial position than DL.

I get that you hate DL and I get that the $2B they put into LATAM might be a wash, but no one has actually offered a reason why LA or AM or VS, assuming they come out the other end of this would have any reason to walk away from JVs that, by all accounts, work well enough.

Yeah, you are right - the JVs work so well that almost every single one of those JV partners are not able to make profits even in the best of times.


Any evidence that they were struggling because of the JVs, and not in spite of them? And remember that correlation is not causation. We're looking for prove of causation here.
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