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FSDan
Posts: 3340
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:27 pm

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:48 pm

panamair wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
TYWoolman wrote:
I think all A350s are active according to a.net so wondering how the 777's will be replaced?


Maybe somebody will do a utilization schedule of the widebodies based on the current summer 2021 schedules. Lose 18 777/77L, lose a few (unknown number?) of 767s, add in some unknown number of 339s that DL can't defer.


DL has only announced their TATL and TPAC plans for S21 but nothing for LatAm yet so I am assuming what's currently published in the schedules:

A359 will be around 15-16 frames needed (also taking into account reduced frequencies in some markets); 13 in fleet now; 2 ready to be delivered
ATL-HND; ICN; JNB
LAX-HND; PVG; SYD
DTW-HND; ICN; PVG
MSP-HND

A339 will be around 9 frames needed: 5 in fleet currently
SEA-HND; ICN; PVG; PKX; AMS
ICN-MNL
JFK-AMS

A333 will be about 29 frames; fleet size is 31
JFK-AMS; FCO (2x); MXP; ATH (2x); TLV (2x); GRU
BOS-AMS
DTW-AMS (3x); CDG
ATL-AMS (3x); CDG (2x); FCO; GRU
SEA-CDG
MSP-AMS (2x); CDG
LAX-CDG

A332 will be about 7-8 frames; this one is kind of a mess in terms of the routes being all over the place for now. Fleet size is 11
JFK-NCE; LOS
ATL-LOS
DTW-NGO
MSP-ICN
PDX-AMS; HND

764 will be around 18 frames: fleet size is 21
JFK-LHR (2x); BRU; FRA; ZRH; CDG (2x)
ATL-LHR (2x); FRA; MUC; SCL
DTW-LHR; FRA
MSP-LHR
BOS-LHR; CDG

763ER will be around 23 frames (international only, not including JFK-LAX yet):
JFK-LIS; EDI; KEF; MAD; BCN; DUB; VCE; DSS; ACC
ATL-DUB; MAD; BCN; STR; EZE; GIG; LIM
SLC-AMS; CDG
BOS-DUB
RDU-CDG
CVG-CDG
HNL-HND


Good analysis. In addition to JFK-LAX, I'd expect a few 763s on mainland-HNL routes.
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alfa164
Posts: 3718
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:29 pm

panamair wrote:
Winter 2020-21 TATL frequencies and aircraft schedules updated this weekend:
JFK-LHR 764
JFK-DUB A333
JFK-AMS A339
JFK-BRU 764
JFK-CDG A333
JFK-FRA A333
JFK-ZRH A333
JFK-MXP A333
JFK-FCO A333
JFK-MAD A333
JFK-BCN A333
JFK-TLV A333
JFK-DSS 763ER
JFK-ACC 763ER

ATL-LHR A333
ATL-AMS A333
ATL-CDG A333
ATL-FRA A333
ATL-MUC A333
ATL-LOS A332
ATL-JNB A359
BOS-LHR 764
BOS-AMS A333
BOS-CDG 764
DTW-AMS A359
DTW-CDG A333
SEA-AMS A339
SEA-CDG A333


Interestingly, DL is showing JFK-EDI/KEF/LIS all flying on the 767's next summer, while their partners (AF, KL, and VS all codeshare on those routes) show them to be flown on 757's. I am guessing DL has updated their information - or perhaps the equipment choice isn't "written in stone" as of now.
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kavok
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:49 pm

To get the full picture, I will be curious to see what KL/AF/VS/KE intend on flying as well, as essentially those are also DL TATL/TPAC flights.
 
jayunited
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:41 pm

How many additional A359s and A339NEOs is DL scheduled to take delivery of between now and the 202ONE Olympics?

I'm asking because UA's contract with the USOC ends at the end of this year. This should mean DL as the new corporate sponsor will take over all charter duties for the 202ONE Olympics. The required aircraft for any Olympic games not only includes the USOC but also includes the entire NBC Sports crew and all of there equipment needed to cover the games. For the 2016 games the USOC and NBC Sports used our largest aircraft including multiple 744s and 77Es. At one point in the run-up to the start of the Olympics between the USOC and NBC Sports combined UA was running 6-7 charter flights a day. It really put a strain on UA's 744 and 77E fleet in terms of available spares to cover our regularly scheduled flights.

With DL flying a much younger widebody fleet in 2021 verses what UA was flying in 2016 it should mean DL would need less spares to cover their regular schedule than UA needed in 2016. But I'm wondering how many frames will be in the fleet and judging from UA's experience as the sponsor the contract required UA to use the largest frames in our fleet. Even with the 2012 London Olympics UA could not use any 767s for charter flights, all charters had to be flown with either a 744 or a 77E.
 
Oliver2020
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:59 pm

jayunited wrote:
How many additional A359s and A339NEOs is DL scheduled to take delivery of between now and the 202ONE Olympics?

I'm asking because UA's contract with the USOC ends at the end of this year. This should mean DL as the new corporate sponsor will take over all charter duties for the 202ONE Olympics. The required aircraft for any Olympic games not only includes the USOC but also includes the entire NBC Sports crew and all of there equipment needed to cover the games. For the 2016 games the USOC and NBC Sports used our largest aircraft including multiple 744s and 77Es. At one point in the run-up to the start of the Olympics between the USOC and NBC Sports combined UA was running 6-7 charter flights a day. It really put a strain on UA's 744 and 77E fleet in terms of available spares to cover our regularly scheduled flights.

With DL flying a much younger widebody fleet in 2021 verses what UA was flying in 2016 it should mean DL would need less spares to cover their regular schedule than UA needed in 2016. But I'm wondering how many frames will be in the fleet and judging from UA's experience as the sponsor the contract required UA to use the largest frames in our fleet. Even with the 2012 London Olympics UA could not use any 767s for charter flights, all charters had to be flown with either a 744 or a 77E.


37- total A330-900 and 35-A350-900's per the Q2 Sec filing on page 45.
https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files/do ... 0-10-Q.pdf
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:00 am

jayunited wrote:
How many additional A359s and A339NEOs is DL scheduled to take delivery of between now and the 202ONE Olympics?


I don't believe DL has announced revised delivery schedules for the 359s, 339s (or anything else). Not externally in SEC filings, anyway.
 
panamair
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:04 am

alfa164 wrote:
Interestingly, DL is showing JFK-EDI/KEF/LIS all flying on the 767's next summer, while their partners (AF, KL, and VS all codeshare on those routes) show them to be flown on 757's. I am guessing DL has updated their information - or perhaps the equipment choice isn't "written in stone" as of now.


The DL flight info is usually correct (since it's for a DL-operated flight); it takes the codeshare partners a bit of time to synch up with the changes. Another example is when DL drops a route, the DL flight is pulled, but the KL or VS or AF codeshare flight number still shows for sale - it usually takes a few days to a week for AF/KL/VS to update DL-operated codeshare flights. As it currently stands, DL does not plan to operate any 757s across the Atlantic next summer.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:43 am

Oliver2020 wrote:
jayunited wrote:
How many additional A359s and A339NEOs is DL scheduled to take delivery of between now and the 202ONE Olympics?

I'm asking because UA's contract with the USOC ends at the end of this year. This should mean DL as the new corporate sponsor will take over all charter duties for the 202ONE Olympics. The required aircraft for any Olympic games not only includes the USOC but also includes the entire NBC Sports crew and all of there equipment needed to cover the games. For the 2016 games the USOC and NBC Sports used our largest aircraft including multiple 744s and 77Es. At one point in the run-up to the start of the Olympics between the USOC and NBC Sports combined UA was running 6-7 charter flights a day. It really put a strain on UA's 744 and 77E fleet in terms of available spares to cover our regularly scheduled flights.

With DL flying a much younger widebody fleet in 2021 verses what UA was flying in 2016 it should mean DL would need less spares to cover their regular schedule than UA needed in 2016. But I'm wondering how many frames will be in the fleet and judging from UA's experience as the sponsor the contract required UA to use the largest frames in our fleet. Even with the 2012 London Olympics UA could not use any 767s for charter flights, all charters had to be flown with either a 744 or a 77E.


37- total A330-900 and 35-A350-900's per the Q2 Sec filing on page 45.
https://s2.q4cdn.com/181345880/files/do ... 0-10-Q.pdf


That’s total deliveries, not deliveries by 2020(1) Olympics.
 
DMPHL
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:40 am

jayunited wrote:
How many additional A359s and A339NEOs is DL scheduled to take delivery of between now and the 202ONE Olympics?

I'm asking because UA's contract with the USOC ends at the end of this year. This should mean DL as the new corporate sponsor will take over all charter duties for the 202ONE Olympics. The required aircraft for any Olympic games not only includes the USOC but also includes the entire NBC Sports crew and all of there equipment needed to cover the games. For the 2016 games the USOC and NBC Sports used our largest aircraft including multiple 744s and 77Es. At one point in the run-up to the start of the Olympics between the USOC and NBC Sports combined UA was running 6-7 charter flights a day. It really put a strain on UA's 744 and 77E fleet in terms of available spares to cover our regularly scheduled flights.

With DL flying a much younger widebody fleet in 2021 verses what UA was flying in 2016 it should mean DL would need less spares to cover their regular schedule than UA needed in 2016. But I'm wondering how many frames will be in the fleet and judging from UA's experience as the sponsor the contract required UA to use the largest frames in our fleet. Even with the 2012 London Olympics UA could not use any 767s for charter flights, all charters had to be flown with either a 744 or a 77E.


Will DL actually take over for Tokyo? That seems slightly implausible unless UA drops out for whatever reason, since although the contract takes effect in January and UA's contract ends, the reporting on the contract seems to indicate that the sponsorship and charter agreements cover specific Olympic Games beginning with Beijing in 2022.

UA's contract would still presumably cover a postponed Tokyo games, since their contract would presumably include those games.
 
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klm617
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:36 pm

kavok wrote:
To get the full picture, I will be curious to see what KL/AF/VS/KE intend on flying as well, as essentially those are also DL TATL/TPAC flights.


Detroit looks like it's going to take a pretty big hit next summer losing

1 X MUC
1 X FCO
1 X AMS
1 X CDG
1 X LHR
1 X PEK

So almost half of it's international capacity is getting wacked off.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
TonyClifton
Posts: 295
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:02 pm

klm617 wrote:
kavok wrote:
To get the full picture, I will be curious to see what KL/AF/VS/KE intend on flying as well, as essentially those are also DL TATL/TPAC flights.


Detroit looks like it's going to take a pretty big hit next summer losing

1 X MUC
1 X FCO
1 X AMS
1 X CDG
1 X LHR
1 X PEK

So almost half of it's international capacity is getting wacked off.

I think every city is taking a bit of a kick, it’s unfortunate, but this stuff will come back. Detroit is a crown jewel hub, it’s just awkwardly positioned (same as MSP) for times like this when some Asian capacity can be routed through Seattle, and Europe through JFK/BOS.

Inevitable given a reduction of widebodies fleetwide, but I don’t see why most of those won’t return. Detroit still gets the only TATL A359 flight! :D
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8269
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:08 pm

Everywhere is getting whacked internationally this should be no surprise.
Demand is going to be down significantly on all scenarios hence why the big reduction in international flights. Thats why everyone has said it will be years to get back regardless.

Hey look at the bright side, its a lot more flights than we had in Summer 2020.
 
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pitbosflyer
Posts: 380
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 4:11 pm

klm617 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
No, it’s not surprising at all the low demand and travel restriction environment through the winter.
You know these are not ordinary times.

Oct-Mar only ATL, JFK, BOS have LHR service.
In spring 2021, DTW, MSP come back along with another ATL flight.


Yes but Detroit is still the number 2 hub in the Delta network and it has more feed than either JFK or BOS.


I'd assume the other thing DL is considering is that the local demand for LHR traffic is going to recover quicker in JFK or BOS. There was a lot of local demand to begin with to LHR in both cities. BA never even stopped flying either of these routes thru the whole shutdown. Throwing in the fact that the eastern hubs make more geographic sense for TATL connection than DTW, I think this choice for now is prudent. Don't worry DTW fanboys....your favorite hub isn't going away. When demand picks up again, DTW will continue to be how much of the Midwest is connected to TATL flights in DL's network. Its also possible that VS picks up the DTW route duty soon enough.
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Lootess
Posts: 528
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:03 pm

klm617 wrote:
kavok wrote:
To get the full picture, I will be curious to see what KL/AF/VS/KE intend on flying as well, as essentially those are also DL TATL/TPAC flights.


Detroit looks like it's going to take a pretty big hit next summer losing

1 X MUC
1 X FCO
1 X AMS
1 X CDG
1 X LHR
1 X PEK

So almost half of it's international capacity is getting wacked off.


DTW-PEK is hinged on USDOT and China re-allowing more mutual slots by next year (which is likely).
 
jayunited
Posts: 3031
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:40 pm

DMPHL wrote:
Will DL actually take over for Tokyo? That seems slightly implausible unless UA drops out for whatever reason, since although the contract takes effect in January and UA's contract ends, the reporting on the contract seems to indicate that the sponsorship and charter agreements cover specific Olympic Games beginning with Beijing in 2022.

UA's contract would still presumably cover a postponed Tokyo games, since their contract would presumably include those games.



From what I'm hearing UA's contractual obligations are done on December 31, 2020 and DL's obligations take over on January 1 2021. There maybe some negociations taking place secretly because DL was not planning on taking over charter duties until the Winter 2022 games in Beijing. But I'm hearing UA's position is our contract is up and Delta's sponsorship of the USOC actually starts January 1st, not in February 2022 as you are suggesting. DL's own website confirms they are the official sponsor of the USOC starting January 1st.

Perhaps Delta may try to convince the USOC that UA should still be required to cover charter flights because of the delay. I can understand if that is DL's position and to be honest from what I've heard these charters cost UA money (we didn't make a dime on those flights) this on top of the $4 million dollars UA was paying annually as the official airline. This is the reason for my original post especially since DL has already posted a tentative 2021 international schedule. If at the end of the day Delta, and not United is running charters for the USOC and NBC Sports will they (DL) have enough frames to cover the charter requirements for the 202ONE games and still fly their scheduled flights? Especially if DL contract with the USOC like UA's requires them to use their largest widebodies only meaning no 767s.

Another thing to keep in mind is the summer Olympics is a total different beast than the Winter Olympics in terms of the amount of charters needed especially in the run up to the opening games. So in reality Delta wasn't planning on taking on the heavy lifting of a summer Olympics until Paris 2024. I don't think Delta, United or the USOC would allow this to turn into a public battle. The optics of such a battle would not be great and both airlines would loose face. As far as the public is concern it is an honor to support the American team. But in a (hopefully) post-COVID world, with airlines trying to conserve cash, and seeing how much DL is paying per year v.s what UA was paying, I can see DL push to have UA operate all charters for 202ONE but still have Delta Airlines show as the official airline.
 
Cactusjuba
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:51 pm

Delta just announced 1,941 pilot furloughs.
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:58 pm

The situation with the upcoming Olympics in Tokyo is different from past years as fewer Americans are likely to travel to Tokyo for the Summer Olympics next year than was the case in the past due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

While there is a need to transport athletes, coaches, torchbearers, members of the media, and other essential personnel to and from the Tokyo Olympics next year, some of the USOC employees in the U.S. who do not need to travel to Japan for the upcoming Tokyo Olympics next year will avoid travel to Japan due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
 
TropicalSky
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:02 pm

i believe this is less than they had planned originally

Cactusjuba wrote:
Delta just announced 1,941 pilot furloughs.
 
Alias1024
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:19 pm

TropicalSky wrote:
i believe this is less than they had planned originally

Cactusjuba wrote:
Delta just announced 1,941 pilot furloughs.


The original number of WARN act letters was 2,558. The early retirement plan appears to have saved a little over 600 from furlough on October 1st.
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DMPHL
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:26 pm

jayunited wrote:
DMPHL wrote:
Will DL actually take over for Tokyo? That seems slightly implausible unless UA drops out for whatever reason, since although the contract takes effect in January and UA's contract ends, the reporting on the contract seems to indicate that the sponsorship and charter agreements cover specific Olympic Games beginning with Beijing in 2022.

UA's contract would still presumably cover a postponed Tokyo games, since their contract would presumably include those games.



From what I'm hearing UA's contractual obligations are done on December 31, 2020 and DL's obligations take over on January 1 2021. There maybe some negociations taking place secretly because DL was not planning on taking over charter duties until the Winter 2022 games in Beijing. But I'm hearing UA's position is our contract is up and Delta's sponsorship of the USOC actually starts January 1st, not in February 2022 as you are suggesting. DL's own website confirms they are the official sponsor of the USOC starting January 1st.

Perhaps Delta may try to convince the USOC that UA should still be required to cover charter flights because of the delay. I can understand if that is DL's position and to be honest from what I've heard these charters cost UA money (we didn't make a dime on those flights) this on top of the $4 million dollars UA was paying annually as the official airline. This is the reason for my original post especially since DL has already posted a tentative 2021 international schedule. If at the end of the day Delta, and not United is running charters for the USOC and NBC Sports will they (DL) have enough frames to cover the charter requirements for the 202ONE games and still fly their scheduled flights? Especially if DL contract with the USOC like UA's requires them to use their largest widebodies only meaning no 767s.

Another thing to keep in mind is the summer Olympics is a total different beast than the Winter Olympics in terms of the amount of charters needed especially in the run up to the opening games. So in reality Delta wasn't planning on taking on the heavy lifting of a summer Olympics until Paris 2024. I don't think Delta, United or the USOC would allow this to turn into a public battle. The optics of such a battle would not be great and both airlines would loose face. As far as the public is concern it is an honor to support the American team. But in a (hopefully) post-COVID world, with airlines trying to conserve cash, and seeing how much DL is paying per year v.s what UA was paying, I can see DL push to have UA operate all charters for 202ONE but still have Delta Airlines show as the official airline.


Yea I was just curious here, because I assume UA is not going to go for (1) Being required to run money losing charters (2) While DL gets the publicity as the official airline (3) While also having paid $4M for no actual benefit.
 
TropicalSky
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:27 pm

I'm sure the ones saved are appreciative

Alias1024 wrote:
TropicalSky wrote:
i believe this is less than they had planned originally

Cactusjuba wrote:
Delta just announced 1,941 pilot furloughs.


The original number of WARN act letters was 2,558. The early retirement plan appears to have saved a little over 600 from furlough on October 1st.
 
deltairlines
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:58 pm

I'm hearing that Gil West has "retired".
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 8269
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:22 pm

Its more than a rumor, its official:
https://news.delta.com/ed-bastian-memo-gil-west

Retires end of September.
 
panamair
Posts: 4348
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:44 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
TropicalSky wrote:
i believe this is less than they had planned originally

Cactusjuba wrote:
Delta just announced 1,941 pilot furloughs.


The original number of WARN act letters was 2,558. The early retirement plan appears to have saved a little over 600 from furlough on October 1st.


Actually, the final number who took the early out package was around 1800+. By the first deadline to sign up for the packages, they had about 2200 pilots put their names in; apparently around 400 must have pulled out by the final deadline. Plus, given the less than optimistic projections of recovery, Delta may also have adjusted (downward) their needs for next summer’s flying.
 
Lootess
Posts: 528
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 6:15 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:01 pm

Here is the pilots memo.

"We are six months into this pandemic and only 25% of our revenues have been recovered. Unfortunately, we see few catalysts over the next six months to meaningful change this trajectory."
https://twitter.com/BrendanKeefe/status/1298014496699678720?s=20
 
cessna2
Posts: 399
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:02 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Its more than a rumor, its official:
https://news.delta.com/ed-bastian-memo-gil-west

Retires end of September.

Not a good sign when executives start jumping ship.
 
Alias1024
Posts: 2694
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 11:13 am

Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:31 pm

panamair wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
TropicalSky wrote:
i believe this is less than they had planned originally



The original number of WARN act letters was 2,558. The early retirement plan appears to have saved a little over 600 from furlough on October 1st.


Actually, the final number who took the early out package was around 1800+. By the first deadline to sign up for the packages, they had about 2200 pilots put their names in; apparently around 400 must have pulled out by the final deadline.


How is what I wrote wrong?
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:52 pm

It’s not.
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jb1087xna
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:16 am

cessna2 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Its more than a rumor, its official:
https://news.delta.com/ed-bastian-memo-gil-west

Retires end of September.

Not a good sign when executives start jumping ship.


Why is that? I've seen any number of executives leave of their own accord in other companies, including those in the Fortune 500 circle, when times are both good and bad. When would you expect them to leave?
 
tjerome
Posts: 349
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 3:50 am

cessna2 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Its more than a rumor, its official:
https://news.delta.com/ed-bastian-memo-gil-west

Retires end of September.

Not a good sign when executives start jumping ship.


Paul Jacobson agreed to rescind his (pre-COVID) retirement plans so there's that.
 
n7371f
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:35 am

DL has good bench strength behind Gil. There's Lentsch. And Ed sent Medeiros down to MEX to run AM as COO for two years and turned that operation using most of the DAL playbook around before wanting back in the states. DAL prefers to bring up from within so it'll be interesting to see.
 
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kordcj
Posts: 279
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:32 am

panamair wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
TropicalSky wrote:
i believe this is less than they had planned originally



The original number of WARN act letters was 2,558. The early retirement plan appears to have saved a little over 600 from furlough on October 1st.


Actually, the final number who took the early out package was around 1800+. By the first deadline to sign up for the packages, they had about 2200 pilots put their names in; apparently around 400 must have pulled out by the final deadline. Plus, given the less than optimistic projections of recovery, Delta may also have adjusted (downward) their needs for next summer’s flying.


Is the 1941 furloughed in addition to the 1800 that are also leaving with buyouts?
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:13 am

n7371f wrote:
DL has good bench strength behind Gil. There's Lentsch. And Ed sent Medeiros down to MEX to run AM as COO for two years and turned that operation using most of the DAL playbook around before wanting back in the states. DAL prefers to bring up from within so it'll be interesting to see.



It'll be interesting to see who has a chair when the music stops.

Also, for that might not know, Medeiros is now the VP of Global Cleanliness.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:36 am

NWAESC wrote:
Medeiros is now the VP of Global Cleanliness.


That's got to look odd on a business card. :)

Execs depart. Bastian replaced Anderson. West replaced Gorman. Both changes demonstrated continuity and competence. One separation isn't indicative of a wave.
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:00 pm

One separation isn't indicative of a wave.


I agree. My earlier post was more of an out loud wondering if there will be a wave.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
deltaguy767
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:20 pm

NWAESC wrote:
One separation isn't indicative of a wave.


I agree. My earlier post was more of an out loud wondering if there will be a wave.

The Officer & Director window for retirements/early-outs closed on Friday evening. The rescission period goes into this week, not sure on the exact cut-off, but target departures are 9/1 with some kicking out another 30 days for transitions. I wouldn't anticipate any more big C-level departures, but definitely at the VP/MD/D level.
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panamair
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:22 pm

Alias1024 wrote:
panamair wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:

The original number of WARN act letters was 2,558. The early retirement plan appears to have saved a little over 600 from furlough on October 1st.


Actually, the final number who took the early out package was around 1800+. By the first deadline to sign up for the packages, they had about 2200 pilots put their names in; apparently around 400 must have pulled out by the final deadline.


How is what I wrote wrong?


Sorry I wasn’t trying to say you had the wrong math but actually trying to figure out the math, maybe I got it wrong, the original WARN predicted an overage of 2500+ pilots by S21. So by simple math, if 1800 took the package, that would leave about 700+ in danger of furlough. But instead now we have 1900+ on the potential furlough list; this would mean that DL revised their projections of the overage by S21 to reflect an increase of another 800?
 
Ursula21
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:34 pm

panamair wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:
panamair wrote:

Actually, the final number who took the early out package was around 1800+. By the first deadline to sign up for the packages, they had about 2200 pilots put their names in; apparently around 400 must have pulled out by the final deadline.


How is what I wrote wrong?


Sorry I wasn’t trying to say you had the wrong math but actually trying to figure out the math, maybe I got it wrong, the original WARN predicted an overage of 2500+ pilots by S21. So by simple math, if 1800 took the package, that would leave about 700+ in danger of furlough. But instead now we have 1900+ on the potential furlough list; this would mean that DL revised their projections of the overage by S21 to reflect an increase of another 800?


The original target was not 2500, but rather around 3500. They basically lumped in the VEOP estimate as 1000, then sent notices to the remaining 2500. It was never a 1 VEOP to 1 less furlough setup. They nudged summer down another 2-300 so a new target of 3700 total -1800 VEOP = 1900 furloughed.
 
panamair
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:50 pm

Ursula21 wrote:
panamair wrote:
Alias1024 wrote:

How is what I wrote wrong?


Sorry I wasn’t trying to say you had the wrong math but actually trying to figure out the math, maybe I got it wrong, the original WARN predicted an overage of 2500+ pilots by S21. So by simple math, if 1800 took the package, that would leave about 700+ in danger of furlough. But instead now we have 1900+ on the potential furlough list; this would mean that DL revised their projections of the overage by S21 to reflect an increase of another 800?


The original target was not 2500, but rather around 3500. They basically lumped in the VEOP estimate as 1000, then sent notices to the remaining 2500. It was never a 1 VEOP to 1 less furlough setup. They nudged summer down another 2-300 so a new target of 3700 total -1800 VEOP = 1900 furloughed.


Got it! Thanks for the clarification!
 
Lootess
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:34 pm

NWAESC wrote:
n7371f wrote:
DL has good bench strength behind Gil. There's Lentsch. And Ed sent Medeiros down to MEX to run AM as COO for two years and turned that operation using most of the DAL playbook around before wanting back in the states. DAL prefers to bring up from within so it'll be interesting to see.



It'll be interesting to see who has a chair when the music stops.

Also, for that might not know, Medeiros is now the VP of Global Cleanliness.


Delta has the privilege of basically retaining almost all of it's senior leadership from the great 2005 expansion and Chapter 11 turnaround, they have been through hard times before. It shows in the results thus far.

Mike Medeiros built the SEA hub. I hope he gets another shot at COO this time with the company he's done great things for.
 
TYWoolman
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:05 pm

jb1087xna wrote:
cessna2 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Its more than a rumor, its official:
https://news.delta.com/ed-bastian-memo-gil-west

Retires end of September.

Not a good sign when executives start jumping ship.


Why is that? I've seen any number of executives leave of their own accord in other companies, including those in the Fortune 500 circle, when times are both good and bad. When would you expect them to leave?


With new corporate initiatives coming into play by 2025 and a dwindling workforce, space has to come from somewhere, no? Hopefully, skill won't be sacrificed moving forward if this is in fact related. But on a more optimistic note, the challenges ahead will be very laborious during the recovery so if someone is not up to the task I can see how early retirement seems the better option.
 
deltairlines
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:10 pm

deltaguy767 wrote:
NWAESC wrote:
One separation isn't indicative of a wave.


I agree. My earlier post was more of an out loud wondering if there will be a wave.

The Officer & Director window for retirements/early-outs closed on Friday evening. The rescission period goes into this week, not sure on the exact cut-off, but target departures are 9/1 with some kicking out another 30 days for transitions. I wouldn't anticipate any more big C-level departures, but definitely at the VP/MD/D level.


That's where (VP/MD/D) I expect to see a good bit of departures - the amount of GM and above positions I think tripled from when I joined DL corporate in 2012 and left in 2019. Given that these roles carry a hefty bit of pay, there's definitely some opportunities for trimming the fat.

As for Gil's replacement, I'd expect it to be either Lentsch or Medeiros. I got to know Medeiros a good bit and he's an excellent leader and a very personable guy as a human being. I didn't know Lentsch, but I know the areas under him were running like a finely-oiled machine. I think if one of these gentlemen take over the COO spot, Delta will be in great shape.

As for Paul Jacobson coming back, I've heard that the Board really pushed for him to "un"-retire. Like Medeiros, he's an extremely personable guy - he always remembered me from the time we first met and we'd stop and have brief chats when we would run into each other at the cafeteria. Extremely smart with the numbers as well, and he's still pretty young - he's only 48. When Ed leaves, I would not be surprised if Paul were the one to become CEO. I think he'd be a phenomenal person in the corner office.
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:18 pm

deltairlines wrote:

That's where (VP/MD/D) I expect to see a good bit of departures - the amount of GM and above positions I think tripled from when I joined DL corporate in 2012 and left in 2019. Given that these roles carry a hefty bit of pay, there's definitely some opportunities for trimming the fat.


+1

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deltaguy767
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:24 pm

deltairlines wrote:
deltaguy767 wrote:
NWAESC wrote:

I agree. My earlier post was more of an out loud wondering if there will be a wave.

The Officer & Director window for retirements/early-outs closed on Friday evening. The rescission period goes into this week, not sure on the exact cut-off, but target departures are 9/1 with some kicking out another 30 days for transitions. I wouldn't anticipate any more big C-level departures, but definitely at the VP/MD/D level.


That's where (VP/MD/D) I expect to see a good bit of departures - the amount of GM and above positions I think tripled from when I joined DL corporate in 2012 and left in 2019. Given that these roles carry a hefty bit of pay, there's definitely some opportunities for trimming the fat.

As for Gil's replacement, I'd expect it to be either Lentsch or Medeiros. I got to know Medeiros a good bit and he's an excellent leader and a very personable guy as a human being. I didn't know Lentsch, but I know the areas under him were running like a finely-oiled machine. I think if one of these gentlemen take over the COO spot, Delta will be in great shape.

As for Paul Jacobson coming back, I've heard that the Board really pushed for him to "un"-retire. Like Medeiros, he's an extremely personable guy - he always remembered me from the time we first met and we'd stop and have brief chats when we would run into each other at the cafeteria. Extremely smart with the numbers as well, and he's still pretty young - he's only 48. When Ed leaves, I would not be surprised if Paul were the one to become CEO. I think he'd be a phenomenal person in the corner office.

I echo the sentiments re Bill, Mike and Paul. Given the several re-orgs over the past 12-18 months, Bill was taking on a fair bit of Gil's portfolio, so I would not be surprised to see Bill's title converted to COO and if I were a betting man, I'd say he's the heir apparent to Ed in the next few years.

Anecdotally, pre-COVID and voluntary departures, it was not uncommon to have the GM & Managers out number individual contributors on the Merit side in some departments, and similar at the VP/MD/D level.
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DL747400
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:13 pm

deltairlines wrote:
That's where (VP/MD/D) I expect to see a good bit of departures - the amount of GM and above positions I think tripled from when I joined DL corporate in 2012 and left in 2019. Given that these roles carry a hefty bit of pay, there's definitely some opportunities for trimming the fat.


Wasn't NW quite top heavy compared to other airlines? I wonder whether DL inherited that in the DL/NW merger? I've heard more than one person say that DL have never before in their history been more top heavy than they are right now.

deltaguy767 wrote:
Anecdotally, pre-COVID and voluntary departures, it was not uncommon to have the GM & Managers out number individual contributors on the Merit side in some departments, and similar at the VP/MD/D level.


:checkmark: Thought so.
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deltairlines
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:24 pm

deltaguy767 wrote:
deltairlines wrote:
deltaguy767 wrote:
The Officer & Director window for retirements/early-outs closed on Friday evening. The rescission period goes into this week, not sure on the exact cut-off, but target departures are 9/1 with some kicking out another 30 days for transitions. I wouldn't anticipate any more big C-level departures, but definitely at the VP/MD/D level.


That's where (VP/MD/D) I expect to see a good bit of departures - the amount of GM and above positions I think tripled from when I joined DL corporate in 2012 and left in 2019. Given that these roles carry a hefty bit of pay, there's definitely some opportunities for trimming the fat.

As for Gil's replacement, I'd expect it to be either Lentsch or Medeiros. I got to know Medeiros a good bit and he's an excellent leader and a very personable guy as a human being. I didn't know Lentsch, but I know the areas under him were running like a finely-oiled machine. I think if one of these gentlemen take over the COO spot, Delta will be in great shape.

As for Paul Jacobson coming back, I've heard that the Board really pushed for him to "un"-retire. Like Medeiros, he's an extremely personable guy - he always remembered me from the time we first met and we'd stop and have brief chats when we would run into each other at the cafeteria. Extremely smart with the numbers as well, and he's still pretty young - he's only 48. When Ed leaves, I would not be surprised if Paul were the one to become CEO. I think he'd be a phenomenal person in the corner office.

I echo the sentiments re Bill, Mike and Paul. Given the several re-orgs over the past 12-18 months, Bill was taking on a fair bit of Gil's portfolio, so I would not be surprised to see Bill's title converted to COO and if I were a betting man, I'd say he's the heir apparent to Ed in the next few years.

Anecdotally, pre-COVID and voluntary departures, it was not uncommon to have the GM & Managers out number individual contributors on the Merit side in some departments, and similar at the VP/MD/D level.


I know on a team I used to work on, there were 2 individual contributors going into a Level 10 manager, who went into a Level 11 GM (the 10 was the only direct report of the 11), with the GM going into a MD.

When I joined, the common set up was to have a Manager OR General Manager reporting into a Director OR Managing Director who reported to an officer. When I joined RM, there were I believe 1 VP and 7-8 Directors/Managing Directors - basically one for TATL, Latin, TPAC, Domestic Pricing, Domestic Inventory, 2 in Forecasting and one over the technology side. Under each of them would be 3-4 Managers/GMs - for international it would be pricing, inventory and strategy; domestic would be split by regions. Now, there's an SVP overseeing all of it, with VPs over the regions, and then a few Directors each under them, then a mix of GMs and Managers.

On the last team I worked on, I think they were around a 50/50 split of management and individual contributors (team of 25 people or so).
 
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:39 pm

DL747400 wrote:
Wasn't NW quite top heavy compared to other airlines? I wonder whether DL inherited that in the DL/NW merger? I've heard more than one person say that DL have never before in their history been more top heavy than they are right now...


At the station(s) level, NW ran much leaner than the current model.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."
 
deltairlines
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:50 pm

DL747400 wrote:
deltairlines wrote:
That's where (VP/MD/D) I expect to see a good bit of departures - the amount of GM and above positions I think tripled from when I joined DL corporate in 2012 and left in 2019. Given that these roles carry a hefty bit of pay, there's definitely some opportunities for trimming the fat.


Wasn't NW quite top heavy compared to other airlines? I wonder whether DL inherited that in the DL/NW merger? I've heard more than one person say that DL have never before in their history been more top heavy than they are right now.


I don't think the merger had anything to do with Delta currently being top-heavy. I came on a good 2-3 years after the merger and the corporate hierarchy was only slightly more bloated than what I had seen at my previous two Fortune 500 companies (I'd say one extra layer between myself and a VP; a total of 3 people in the "sandwich"). Change it to nowadays and there would be five people between myself and that VP (who now has become an SVP title and what were the Directors are now VPs).

I'd say the change really didn't happen until after Richard left and Ed came in. Once it was clear that the company was going to be very profitable for the foreseeable future (which, had COVID not hit, would likely have kept going), investments were made in promoting people and creating new layers of management, amongst other things (including really expanding the Expat program, where before it was largely just AMS and a few people in TYO to them expanding the AMS operation quite a bit as well as sending a good number of people to LON, ICN and MEX as well as sending some people to PAR, SCL, GRU and more; as well as taking some people from Latin America and bringing them to MIA and ATL...at one point they were targeting to have at least 200 people involved in the Global Talent Exchange, which had a pretty hefty price tag).
 
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DL747400
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:35 pm

NWAESC wrote:
DL747400 wrote:
Wasn't NW quite top heavy compared to other airlines? I wonder whether DL inherited that in the DL/NW merger? I've heard more than one person say that DL have never before in their history been more top heavy than they are right now...


At the station(s) level, NW ran much leaner than the current model.


What about ABOVE the station level? Isn't that where the vast majority of middle and upper management jobs are positioned in most large corporations?
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NWAESC
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Re: Delta plans to emerge a "smaller" carrier

Wed Aug 26, 2020 6:54 pm

I'm pretty sure there were less layers above the station level as well.
"Nothing ever happens here, " I said. "I just wait."

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