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AirFiero
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:26 pm

iflykpdx wrote:
AirFiero wrote:

Look at the other routes. All cancelled for the entire filed schedule. Is HU dead?


Only a couple were cut through OCT. Were the others seasonal to begin with?


Look at it again...

HU BOS-PVG MAY 0.6>0[0.5] JUN 0.6>0[0.6]
HU CKG-JFK MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3]
HU CKG-LAX MAY 0.3>0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3]
HU CSX-LAX MAY 0.3>0.0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3]
HU CTU-JFK APR 0.4>0.2[0.4] MAY 0.5>0.0[0.5] JUN 0.4>0[0.4]
HU CTU-LAX APR 0.4>0.2[0.4] MAY 0.4>0[0.4] JUN 0.4>0[0.4]
HU CTU-ORD MAY 0.3>0[0] JUN 0.3>0[0]
HU LAX-XIY MAY 0.3>0.0[0.3] JUN 0.3>0[0.3]
HU ORD-PEK JUN 0.6>0[0.6] JUL 0.5>0[0.5] AUG 0.6>0[0.6] SEP 0.6>0[0.6] OCT 0.5>0[0.5]
HU PEK-SJC APR 0.7>0[0.7] MAY 0.7>0[0.6] JUN 0.7>0[0.7] JUL 0.7>0[0.5] AUG 0.7>0[0.6] SEP 0.7>0[0.6] OCT 0.5>0[0.5]
HU PVG-SEA MAY 0.4>0[0.5] JUN 0.4>0[0.4]

...every single route listed is being cut over varying time frames, including ORD, LAX etc.
 
wwtraveler99
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 6:31 pm

Thank you Enrilia!

Seeing all these cuts (or lack of them) I will say that if there was only 1 major (US AA DL) flying, they would still have load factors in the 20-40% range. This is an unfortunate time for airlines. The cuts are not done yet. Southwest looks like they are cutting more flight on a daily basis than what they are showing cut for April. And the even bigger problem is the end is no-where in sight.

As for what Delta is doing I am not sure. I know they have announced larger cuts than what is now published. Maybe things are happening too fast. I know I have a DL flight scheduled next month. The flight is no longer operating. DL has yet to notify me about any changes. Again things are probably happening way to fast.
 
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usxguy
Posts: 1884
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:57 pm

Just wanted to chime in from a *NETWORK PLANNING* perspective.

Not all airlines have time to update a SSIM (IATA standard file for the flight schedule), unless they are on automated SSM (sends individual flight updates rather than all at once in a single file) updates to the GDSs. In the case of Frontier, I will be you they are doing cancels inside the system rather than wiping out entire routes/schedules.

I work for 2 airlines in a back-end capacity, and 1 of them hasn't yet updated a SSIM file to OAG/Cirium. The other is SSM to the GDSs and whatnot, and they are doing cancels only 2-3 weeks out. Both airlines didn't appear on this list, but both have made significant changes.
xx
 
Chuska
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:31 pm

AN ABQ-SVC APR 2>4[2]
AN PHX-SVC APR 1.0>2[1.0]

This is a filing error. Advanced Air will start a whole new schedule on Tuesday, 3/24 and it looks like they didn't remove the old one which is why these markets show double capacity. There are no flights showing for PHX-HHR anymore in their website.
 
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usxguy
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:48 pm

Its also how the res system sends the schedules. They may have zero'd out one flight, but the other still exists.
xx
 
evank516
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:48 pm

This is one of the most depressing OAG Change Threads to date. I'm sure it'll only get worse in the next couple of months.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:55 pm

What I haven't seen in the OAG report are the announced and apparent cuts that Contour/LF has made in the West (I don't know their Eastern system to recognize what's missing..anybody?).

LF is only maintaining the two AEAS/EAS markets: CEC-OAK and PGA-PHX/LAS. I did see a notice of them suspending SMF-SBA, SMF-PSP and SBP-LAX, but they are also not flying OAK-SBA and SBA-LAX; The latter seem to have been cancelling on a daily basis, though in just now checking, they are now zeroed-out ("Sold Out") in their website.

I assume they have to commit to the subsidized routes, especially CEC, as that contract is up for renewal next month. Are they also only operating subsidized routes in the East? I can guess the IND expansion will be delayed.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:21 pm

umichman wrote:
knope2001 wrote:
--Between RDU and CVG, Raleigh saw more P2P routes fully suspended while CVG's primarily saw frequency cuts and fewer suspensions



CVG April cuts have not yet been fully reflected in schedule. CVG-STL and CVG-MCI have been cut for April (all flights zero'd out April 2 - May 2), but are still showing in schedule. CVG-BDL cut made this schedule change.


Thanks for that catch -- the OAG report this week reflects that one of the two daily flights has been pulled form the schedule in CVG-STL and CVG-MCI, but indeed the other one (while still existing) has inventory zeroed out, probably to be removed in the next week or two. Obviously things continue to be an (undoubtedly-exhausting) work in progress when it comes to schedule reworking at the airlines. Getting a handle now on what the eventual remaining networks will look like is like trying to catch water out of a garden hose with your bare hands. But it's what we have for now.
 
Chuska
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:22 pm

JetSuiteX, which doesn't report to the OAG, has dropped OAK-PHX and OAK-BFI, and all the new routes that were to begin in April are out including: BFI-PDX, OAK and BUR to Coachella Valley, MRY to BUR and SNA, and RNO to BUR and LAS.
 
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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:34 pm

Wingtips56 wrote:
What I haven't seen in the OAG report are the announced and apparent cuts that Contour/LF has made in the West (I don't know their Eastern system to recognize what's missing..anybody?).

LF is only maintaining the two AEAS/EAS markets: CEC-OAK and PGA-PHX/LAS. I did see a notice of them suspending SMF-SBA, SMF-PSP and SBP-LAX, but they are also not flying OAK-SBA and SBA-LAX; The latter seem to have been cancelling on a daily basis, though in just now checking, they are now zeroed-out ("Sold Out") in their website.

I assume they have to commit to the subsidized routes, especially CEC, as that contract is up for renewal next month. Are they also only operating subsidized routes in the East? I can guess the IND expansion will be delayed.


The flights still exists but are zeroed out, just like the new Indy flights. I believe everything in the east except for the new Indy flights is EAS-subsidy (actually the Alternate EAS program) so they would be obligated to continue.
 
Rdh3e
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:04 pm

jco613 wrote:
jb1087xna wrote:
Thanks as always for the Sunday morning read!

enilria wrote:
UA EWR-XNA APR 1.0>0[1.0] MAY 1.0>0[0.9]


Some of the seemingly little blinking that XNA has experienced so far. UA pulled SFO a few weeks back, but I wonder if that one is 100% virus related...I have my doubts, especially as it was pulled all the way through the fall.
AA still has a robust schedule to DFW in April at 9 daily, which is I think just 1 or 2 below their peak season schedule, though with no mainline included. DL pulled one of their 6 flights to ATL and down-gauged their morning mainline to a CR9 but that's about it...MSP and LGA remain and with their CR9s as always.
I'm assuming the big three want to have their options readily available once business traffic start to creep back, whenever that may be.

I think this is a great point. Remember, Walmart runs XNA and Walmart is one of the few businesses actually doing fairly well right now (hiring over 1,000 temp workers during this). I think cities like XNA, RDU, CVG, CLE and similar will see their demand rebound faster than other markets. I also think we'll see some typically seasonal tourist destinations (Domestically) get a boost in their offseason once this is done. Near distance vacations and some business travel will be the first to recover. We all need a vacation after this!

But honestly, these are just guesses. Nobody knows, but if you assume what I said to be true, you have to maintain your presence to be ready for the demand. RDU and similar cities you can reroute traffic as demand escalates, but XNA with it's already limited service, needs to maintain close to current levels.

Walmart has banned all non-essential travel for their employees through April... The sales are good, but that does not mean corporate is traveling.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:43 am

Effective March 16, Ultimate Air Shuttle will be suspending all flight operations due to declined demand caused by the Coronavirus. We will continue to monitor the situation and communicate to you when the affected destinations will resume.
Suspended Destinations
Chicago
Charlotte
Charlotte to Atlanta
Atlanta to Charlotte
Nashville
Cleveland
Atlanta


All ultimate air shuttle flights suspended. I am not sure about the status of the EAS flight that they operate out of Midway.
So... when will the Northwest DC-9s be retired?
 
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knope2001
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:58 am

Gulfstream500 wrote:
Effective March 16, Ultimate Air Shuttle will be suspending all flight operations due to declined demand caused by the Coronavirus. We will continue to monitor the situation and communicate to you when the affected destinations will resume.
Suspended Destinations
Chicago
Charlotte
Charlotte to Atlanta
Atlanta to Charlotte
Nashville
Cleveland
Atlanta


All ultimate air shuttle flights suspended. I am not sure about the status of the EAS flight that they operate out of Midway.


Looks like they are still operating the EAS flight to Manistee -- as recently as two hours ago (Sunday 3/22 PM) a MDW-MBL flight operated. The last of their business flights ended last Monday 3/16. Sad -- they had only recently added a third Cincinnati-Cleveland fight and were adding Cincinnati-Nashville on 3/16.
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:04 am

Chuska wrote:
JetSuiteX, which doesn't report to the OAG, has dropped OAK-PHX and OAK-BFI, and all the new routes that were to begin in April are out including: BFI-PDX, OAK and BUR to Coachella Valley, MRY to BUR and SNA, and RNO to BUR and LAS.

i'm worried that they won't survive this.
 
jco613
Posts: 281
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:25 am

Rdh3e wrote:
jco613 wrote:
jb1087xna wrote:
Thanks as always for the Sunday morning read!



Some of the seemingly little blinking that XNA has experienced so far. UA pulled SFO a few weeks back, but I wonder if that one is 100% virus related...I have my doubts, especially as it was pulled all the way through the fall.
AA still has a robust schedule to DFW in April at 9 daily, which is I think just 1 or 2 below their peak season schedule, though with no mainline included. DL pulled one of their 6 flights to ATL and down-gauged their morning mainline to a CR9 but that's about it...MSP and LGA remain and with their CR9s as always.
I'm assuming the big three want to have their options readily available once business traffic start to creep back, whenever that may be.

I think this is a great point. Remember, Walmart runs XNA and Walmart is one of the few businesses actually doing fairly well right now (hiring over 1,000 temp workers during this). I think cities like XNA, RDU, CVG, CLE and similar will see their demand rebound faster than other markets. I also think we'll see some typically seasonal tourist destinations (Domestically) get a boost in their offseason once this is done. Near distance vacations and some business travel will be the first to recover. We all need a vacation after this!

But honestly, these are just guesses. Nobody knows, but if you assume what I said to be true, you have to maintain your presence to be ready for the demand. RDU and similar cities you can reroute traffic as demand escalates, but XNA with it's already limited service, needs to maintain close to current levels.

Walmart has banned all non-essential travel for their employees through April... The sales are good, but that does not mean corporate is traveling.

I meant beyond this situation. By continuing these services now, they are in a better place the day after this is over.
 
wedgetail737
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:17 am

At this rate, SBA is going to have more flights than SEA. Just kidding. But it appears that pretty much all of the overseas airlines are temporarily ending service to SEA (some may be permanent). It appears AM, Volaris, LH, KE, EK, NH, JL, CX and most DL flights are gone. I'm sure AF, FI, VS and Aer Lingus will be very soon the follow.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:47 pm

djack wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Not sure how F9 is going to run most of their schedule. Kind of crazy to me.

enilria wrote:
Is F9 really running everything? Perhaps with their non-daily schedule they can't really cut.


Thanks, Enilria for your weekly posts! Long time reader...I apparently have some time to actually post.

I received an email from Frontier offering a $50 additional credit if I cancel my reservation by Monday. Those credits will be good for bookings made by December 31, 2020, but you don't have to fly by that date. My guess is we'll see a big Frontier adjustment next weekend and this credit was their attempt to get people jump and cancel before they did a major schedule adjustment. The benefit for Frontier is they keep the money as opposed to issuing refunds for flight cancelations.

Yes, 100% agree. That is exactly what they are doing. Seems kinda lame.
usflyer msp wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
enilria wrote:

Is F9 really running everything? Perhaps with their non-daily schedule they can't really cut.

Perhaps their cash position is such that they cannot afford any refunds at this time and will just cancel day of?


I would not be surprised if one of the ULCC carriers just does a temporary shutdown soon. Leisure travel is basically non-existent right now and their customer base has been the most affected by the service industry essentially being decimated by social distancing and quarantines.

Vegas and Orlando are basically shut down.
knope2001 wrote:
Thanks as always for your efforts and willingness to share, enilria!

Quick count (weekday-ish) reduction in flights in those DL changes by hub/focus for April:
156 ATL
69 MSP
65 LGA
56 JFK
53 DTW
38 SLC
26 BOS
22 LAX
19 RDU
15 SEA
13 CVG

A few themes in the cuts:
--Huge majority are one or two frequency cuts
--Some of the highest-frequency shuttle-ish markets got notably bigger cuts such as NYC-BOS/WAS/CHI, LAX-SFO.
--Of fully-suspended markets the majority seem to be point-to-point or hub-overfly (like ALB-MSP)
--Between RDU and CVG, Raleigh saw more P2P routes fully suspended while CVG's primarily saw frequency cuts and fewer suspensions

Speaking of RDU they seemed to take it harder on the chin than pretty much any non-connecting hub this week. I come up with 30 fewer (weekday-approximate) departures in April and 11 markets suspended, though a few (such as BNA-RDU) have another carrier. At the moment May holds a handful more flight cuts and two more route suspensions. Makes you wonder if some big RDU traffic generators were hit especially hard compared to the general freefall we see everywhere, or if perhaps a lot of RDU buildup was about pushing marginal routes/frequencies in a fast-growing market aimed at future profitability.

Thanks and good analysis
FLL2go wrote:
catdaddy63 wrote:
Thank you enilria for your usual hard work. Honestly, I thought the US domestic cuts would be deeper.


I completely agree. There is at least another 25% reduction expected as well as extensions into May.

For example, there were no reductions to EYW from any carrier this time around. Announced just two days ago and effective today, the hotels are all shutdown in addition to the bars and restaurants.

These decisions for reduced capacity for this week's load were made before states and cities announced they were going to complete lockdown.

There was some EYW last week, but I agree.
ncflyer wrote:
It's really becoming clear to me that airlines can't cut flights fast enough from their schedule. These cuts just aren't close to what needs to happen. I'm noticing that in CLE UA is cancelling quite a few flights, maybe this is easier to do than loading new schedules.

If they cancel in advance through OAG, customers can refund. They are doing operational cancels so they do not get that option. If the airlines survive there will be a class-action lawsuit IMHO. I would be surprised if this isn't a violation of their own Contract of Carriage.
Midwestindy wrote:
That SEA pettiness got to them, I'd be surprised if DL keeps the same launch date for Columbus & Dallas

I'm sure DL and AS still want to be petty. But the pettiness budget just got cut to zero.
TW870 wrote:
Dominion301 wrote:
Amazing how some of this is already outdated. For example UA announced they’re suspending all transborder ops for April as are WS.


Yep these cuts are already totally outdated. Right now the way it seems to be working - at least at DL - is that they are zeroing out a lot of flights so they can stop adding passengers to those flights, and then cancelling on an as needed basis in a 24-48 hour window before departure. My guess is they don't want to trim the schedule too aggressively right now, because doing so would overwhelm the app and the call centers when millions of people got cancelled flight messages. Overall, though, I am quite surprised how much actual flying there still is, especially when, as enilria said, the information we have is that most flights are completely empty. For today, for example, four of six DL MSP-LAX flights are operating, which is a giant amount of capacity between one place on partial lockdown and one place on total lockdown.

Enilria, thank you as always for putting this together. These threads have huge historic value despite how painful they are to read.

Thanks. I agree. They can only move so fast, plus the theory I have on refunds. We are seeing a lot of games on that.
drdisque wrote:
I wonder not cutting any domestic stations is part of their backroom dealings for a bailout.

Maybe, but I think it's more hope that this will be temporary. It won't. Stations will close.
admanager wrote:
Thanks Enilria - I'm pleasantly surprised it was posted as soon as it was given the number of changes.
What's as intriguing as what was posted, is what wasn't. A couple examples.
PAE had no cuts.
SEA - CHS on AS wasn't cut, Thursday I was on that flight and there were 20 passengers.
CHS shows 4 cuts (1 by DL on each of ATL, DTW, JFK) and the BA flight.
It's going to get worse.
Next week's title...Hold my beer and watch this.

Sadly alcohol increases the risk of infection. Now there's a reason not to leave the house.
incitatus wrote:
China Southern is planning the resumption of WUH-JFK in April....????? There is no way Wuhan is going to let in passengers from New York. The City is headed to a worse situation than Wuhan ever had.

Wuhan relaxed their lockdown today. The USA won't.
wwtraveler99 wrote:
Thank you Enrilia!

Seeing all these cuts (or lack of them) I will say that if there was only 1 major (US AA DL) flying, they would still have load factors in the 20-40% range. This is an unfortunate time for airlines. The cuts are not done yet. Southwest looks like they are cutting more flight on a daily basis than what they are showing cut for April. And the even bigger problem is the end is no-where in sight.

As for what Delta is doing I am not sure. I know they have announced larger cuts than what is now published. Maybe things are happening too fast. I know I have a DL flight scheduled next month. The flight is no longer operating. DL has yet to notify me about any changes. Again things are probably happening way to fast.

:)
I understand traffic is down around 80% right now.
 
RDUDDJI
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:11 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
My immediate inclination is that, given RDU & ATL's proximity, they are going to drive as many connections through ATL as possible. Although given many of the RDU routes are on CR2s & CR7s, I'd imagine they'd lose a significant amount of money on some of the suspended routes, operating 2 flights a day with only a couple people per flight.

They are keeping RDU-BOS 6x daily which is bizarre to me other than the Pharma connections, considering RDU-LGA will only be 5x daily.



This. DL (et al) can route connections thru their hubs. Since very few business travelers are flying, I think it hits a (non-leisure) market like RDU pretty hard. I suspect the only reason more of the P2P flights haven't been cut yet, is because they're under contract with the regionals.

It's going to get worse before it gets better. I just hope RDU (and every airport) gets back to the level of traffic pre-virus quickly, but it could take years.
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
umichman
Posts: 141
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:42 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:27 pm

RDUDDJI wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
My immediate inclination is that, given RDU & ATL's proximity, they are going to drive as many connections through ATL as possible. Although given many of the RDU routes are on CR2s & CR7s, I'd imagine they'd lose a significant amount of money on some of the suspended routes, operating 2 flights a day with only a couple people per flight.

They are keeping RDU-BOS 6x daily which is bizarre to me other than the Pharma connections, considering RDU-LGA will only be 5x daily.



This. DL (et al) can route connections thru their hubs. Since very few business travelers are flying, I think it hits a (non-leisure) market like RDU pretty hard. I suspect the only reason more of the P2P flights haven't been cut yet, is because they're under contract with the regionals.

It's going to get worse before it gets better. I just hope RDU (and every airport) gets back to the level of traffic pre-virus quickly, but it could take years.


The airlines are now doing basically realtime cancellations instead of waiting for already future scheduled cuts. AA and UA have cancelled 44% of systemwide scheduled flights today and tomorrow all within last couple days. DL is somewhat less aggressive, but now over 37% for today and still making cancellations in tomorrow's schedule. You can see how aggressive AA/UL are with cancelling flights with RDU as an example -- https://flightaware.com/live/airport/KR ... led_origin
 
tphuang
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:40 pm

enilria wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
That SEA pettiness got to them, I'd be surprised if DL keeps the same launch date for Columbus & Dallas

I'm sure DL and AS still want to be petty. But the pettiness budget just got cut to zero.

Apparently, AS is now saying that CVG change was an error and they still plan to start service in Aug. They must be feeling really good about their cash reserves.
 
phxsanslcpdx
Posts: 82
Joined: Mon Aug 01, 2016 4:36 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:57 pm

Thanks for posting this, @enilria !

enilria wrote:
AA CID-PHX NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>1.0[0.4]
AA FAR-PHX NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>1.0[0.5]
AA GRR-PHX NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>1.0[0.5]
AA MSN-PHX NOV 0>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>1.0[0.5]
AA MSY-PHX NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>1.0[0.5]


Of course, we don't really know what next winter is going to bring, but interesting that these all did well enough in winter 2019 to bring them back with increased frequency. In contrast, this winter's flights to COS and CVG aren't showing up, so presumably didn't do well enough to bring back.
 
ericm2031
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:44 pm

Wingtips56 wrote:
What I haven't seen in the OAG report are the announced and apparent cuts that Contour/LF has made in the West (I don't know their Eastern system to recognize what's missing..anybody?).

LF is only maintaining the two AEAS/EAS markets: CEC-OAK and PGA-PHX/LAS. I did see a notice of them suspending SMF-SBA, SMF-PSP and SBP-LAX, but they are also not flying OAK-SBA and SBA-LAX; The latter seem to have been cancelling on a daily basis, though in just now checking, they are now zeroed-out ("Sold Out") in their website.

I assume they have to commit to the subsidized routes, especially CEC, as that contract is up for renewal next month. Are they also only operating subsidized routes in the East? I can guess the IND expansion will be delayed.


I'm assuming you meant SBP/SBA-LAS not LAX
 
alo2yyz
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:41 pm

enilria wrote:
ncflyer wrote:
It's really becoming clear to me that airlines can't cut flights fast enough from their schedule. These cuts just aren't close to what needs to happen. I'm noticing that in CLE UA is cancelling quite a few flights, maybe this is easier to do than loading new schedules.

If they cancel in advance through OAG, customers can refund. They are doing operational cancels so they do not get that option. If the airlines survive there will be a class-action lawsuit IMHO. I would be surprised if this isn't a violation of their own Contract of Carriage.


Can you elaborate, enilria? How is an operational cancel different from a OAG cancel? Is it that the airline would say "COVID-19 is out of our control like weather, so tough cookies"?
(trying to not ask a dumb question needlessly, but google wasn't much help)
 
TW870
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:53 pm

alo2yyz wrote:
enilria wrote:
ncflyer wrote:
It's really becoming clear to me that airlines can't cut flights fast enough from their schedule. These cuts just aren't close to what needs to happen. I'm noticing that in CLE UA is cancelling quite a few flights, maybe this is easier to do than loading new schedules.

If they cancel in advance through OAG, customers can refund. They are doing operational cancels so they do not get that option. If the airlines survive there will be a class-action lawsuit IMHO. I would be surprised if this isn't a violation of their own Contract of Carriage.


Can you elaborate, enilria? How is an operational cancel different from a OAG cancel? Is it that the airline would say "COVID-19 is out of our control like weather, so tough cookies"?
(trying to not ask a dumb question needlessly, but google wasn't much help)


Not a dumb question at all. Enilria's thread tracks changes to the OAG, in which airlines constantly tweak what is for sale in a given market over a wide time frame. They might trim a season in advance (such as in the fall for the following summer high season), or sometimes as close to a month in advance if demand changes. The airline will the roll the advance bookings from flights trimmed out of the OAG onto other, similar itineraries.

In the recent case, the airlines are leaving the flights scheduled, and then cancelling them as the COVID-19 situation intensifies. For today on DL's MSP-BOS operation, all six flights stayed in the OAG and were never modified in advance. Then, because loads are so terrible, they cancelled 5 out of 6 flights. They can easily accommodate all passengers either on the one that operated, or with a connection. DL is also going in and pulling some flights out of the OAG over the coming weeks. But as I said above, I think they are scared of overwhelming their platforms by all of a sudden having millions of people get itinerary change notices.

Normally they would never cancel this many flights this close to departure, as it makes their completion rate look terrible. Right now, however, you have basically no one buying new airline tickets, so there is no competitive service business in which they need to care about their completion rate.

Hope this helps!
 
Wingtips56
Posts: 1291
Joined: Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:26 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:55 pm

ericm2031 wrote:
Wingtips56 wrote:
What I haven't seen in the OAG report are the announced and apparent cuts that Contour/LF has made in the West (I don't know their Eastern system to recognize what's missing..anybody?).

LF is only maintaining the two AEAS/EAS markets: CEC-OAK and PGA-PHX/LAS. I did see a notice of them suspending SMF-SBA, SMF-PSP and SBP-LAX, but they are also not flying OAK-SBA and SBA-LAX; The latter seem to have been cancelling on a daily basis, though in just now checking, they are now zeroed-out ("Sold Out") in their website.

I assume they have to commit to the subsidized routes, especially CEC, as that contract is up for renewal next month. Are they also only operating subsidized routes in the East? I can guess the IND expansion will be delayed.


I'm assuming you meant SBP/SBA-LAS not LAX

Yes. Thank you.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

Home airport : CEC
 
uconn99
Posts: 418
Joined: Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:52 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:03 pm

jmscsc wrote:
catdaddy63 wrote:
Thank you enilria for your usual hard work. Honestly, I thought the US domestic cuts would be deeper.


Same here. I'll be curious to see what more comes in the weeks ahead. I flew DL twice in the last few weeks and there weren't any changes, though things were just starting, and I was on the DL Elite yesterday in regards to a trip in a little more than three weeks to BDL and was surprised that my DTW connection was upgauged to a 737-900 and they're still operating the same number of flights between those two cities.

I concur with so many every week ... thanks Enilria for your dedication and hard work. It's appreciated by so many and looked forward to every Sunday with my cup of coffee! Stay safe everyone.


Also interesting that the first departure of the day BDL-DTW is an A321 the past week or so until April. I believe this is the first scheduled DL A321 into BDL.
 
alo2yyz
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:53 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Mon Mar 23, 2020 11:12 pm

TW870 wrote:
alo2yyz wrote:
enilria wrote:

If they cancel in advance through OAG, customers can refund. They are doing operational cancels so they do not get that option. If the airlines survive there will be a class-action lawsuit IMHO. I would be surprised if this isn't a violation of their own Contract of Carriage.


Can you elaborate, enilria? How is an operational cancel different from a OAG cancel? Is it that the airline would say "COVID-19 is out of our control like weather, so tough cookies"?
(trying to not ask a dumb question needlessly, but google wasn't much help)


Not a dumb question at all. Enilria's thread tracks changes to the OAG, in which airlines constantly tweak what is for sale in a given market over a wide time frame. They might trim a season in advance (such as in the fall for the following summer high season), or sometimes as close to a month in advance if demand changes. The airline will the roll the advance bookings from flights trimmed out of the OAG onto other, similar itineraries.

In the recent case, the airlines are leaving the flights scheduled, and then cancelling them as the COVID-19 situation intensifies. For today on DL's MSP-BOS operation, all six flights stayed in the OAG and were never modified in advance. Then, because loads are so terrible, they cancelled 5 out of 6 flights. They can easily accommodate all passengers either on the one that operated, or with a connection. DL is also going in and pulling some flights out of the OAG over the coming weeks. But as I said above, I think they are scared of overwhelming their platforms by all of a sudden having millions of people get itinerary change notices.

Normally they would never cancel this many flights this close to departure, as it makes their completion rate look terrible. Right now, however, you have basically no one buying new airline tickets, so there is no competitive service business in which they need to care about their completion rate.

Hope this helps!


Yes, thanks! :D
 
SeaDoo
Posts: 305
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:00 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:51 am

usflyer msp wrote:
Rdh3e wrote:
enilria wrote:

Is F9 really running everything? Perhaps with their non-daily schedule they can't really cut.

Perhaps their cash position is such that they cannot afford any refunds at this time and will just cancel day of?


I would not be surprised if one of the ULCC carriers just does a temporary shutdown soon. Leisure travel is basically non-existent right now and their customer base has been the most affected by the service industry essentially being decimated by social distancing and quarantines.


I heard that is what Allegiant is doing in Bellingham. Not an ULCC, but I heard HA shut down all flights to the mainland except one to LA.
 
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BA744PHX
Posts: 355
Joined: Mon Sep 24, 2007 3:42 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:00 am

phxsanslcpdx wrote:
Thanks for posting this, @enilria !

enilria wrote:
AA CID-PHX NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>1.0[0.4]
AA FAR-PHX NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>1.0[0.5]
AA GRR-PHX NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>1.0[0.5]
AA MSN-PHX NOV 0>0.4[0.3] DEC 0>1.0[0.5]
AA MSY-PHX NOV 0>0.4[0] DEC 0>1.0[0.5]


Of course, we don't really know what next winter is going to bring, but interesting that these all did well enough in winter 2019 to bring them back with increased frequency. In contrast, this winter's flights to COS and CVG aren't showing up, so presumably didn't do well enough to bring back.


COS is running 2 daily until end of October, its schedule hasn't been extended yet, its safe to assume COS will be back.
CVG not surprising, I wonder if the 2 week FLL service will return (waste of ac)
 
SeaDoo
Posts: 305
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 3:00 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:09 am

incitatus wrote:
China Southern is planning the resumption of WUH-JFK in April....????? There is no way Wuhan is going to let in passengers from New York. The City is headed to a worse situation than Wuhan ever had.


Not having followed this Coronavirus thing that closely, I smiled when I saw them upping WUH-JFK flights. Not what I would have expected.
 
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enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10252
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:52 pm

alo2yyz wrote:
enilria wrote:
ncflyer wrote:
It's really becoming clear to me that airlines can't cut flights fast enough from their schedule. These cuts just aren't close to what needs to happen. I'm noticing that in CLE UA is cancelling quite a few flights, maybe this is easier to do than loading new schedules.

If they cancel in advance through OAG, customers can refund. They are doing operational cancels so they do not get that option. If the airlines survive there will be a class-action lawsuit IMHO. I would be surprised if this isn't a violation of their own Contract of Carriage.


Can you elaborate, enilria? How is an operational cancel different from a OAG cancel? Is it that the airline would say "COVID-19 is out of our control like weather, so tough cookies"?
(trying to not ask a dumb question needlessly, but google wasn't much help)


Operational cancels are not “scheduled” so they are not reflected in OAG. Just like a maintenance cancel.
 
gwrudolph
Posts: 428
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2008 3:46 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:49 pm

enilria wrote:
alo2yyz wrote:
enilria wrote:

If they cancel in advance through OAG, customers can refund. They are doing operational cancels so they do not get that option. If the airlines survive there will be a class-action lawsuit IMHO. I would be surprised if this isn't a violation of their own Contract of Carriage.


Can you elaborate, enilria? How is an operational cancel different from a OAG cancel? Is it that the airline would say "COVID-19 is out of our control like weather, so tough cookies"?
(trying to not ask a dumb question needlessly, but google wasn't much help)


Operational cancels are not “scheduled” so they are not reflected in OAG. Just like a maintenance cancel.



So if the customer cancels, they get travel credits, but if the airline cancels, you get a refund. My theory is that it is not only operationally favorable to wait until the last minute to cancel, but also favorable for cash flow. Therefore, it is in the customer’s best interest to wait until the last minute in an effort to see if they cancel and get maximum flexibility on the form of refund . . .
 
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enilria
Topic Author
Posts: 10252
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Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020: APOCALYPSE

Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:37 pm

gwrudolph wrote:
enilria wrote:
alo2yyz wrote:

Can you elaborate, enilria? How is an operational cancel different from a OAG cancel? Is it that the airline would say "COVID-19 is out of our control like weather, so tough cookies"?
(trying to not ask a dumb question needlessly, but google wasn't much help)


Operational cancels are not “scheduled” so they are not reflected in OAG. Just like a maintenance cancel.



So if the customer cancels, they get travel credits, but if the airline cancels, you get a refund. My theory is that it is not only operationally favorable to wait until the last minute to cancel, but also favorable for cash flow. Therefore, it is in the customer’s best interest to wait until the last minute in an effort to see if they cancel and get maximum flexibility on the form of refund . . .

100% right. I just did that. They would not give me a refund, so I waited until 72 hours, they cancelled it, and I asked for a refund. They would not allow you to do it online. After passing me over twice on the phone through various layers of refund prevention, they finally agreed they were required to refund me and said 25 business day delay until it is processed. Definitely all about cash flow.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5210
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:50 pm

enilria, thanks again for the hard work here. I'm expecting this sunday to be another huge list. Looks like DL loaded a lot more cuts and so did UA.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 881
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:01 pm

usxguy wrote:
Just wanted to chime in from a *NETWORK PLANNING* perspective.

Not all airlines have time to update a SSIM (IATA standard file for the flight schedule), unless they are on automated SSM (sends individual flight updates rather than all at once in a single file) updates to the GDSs. In the case of Frontier, I will be you they are doing cancels inside the system rather than wiping out entire routes/schedules.

I work for 2 airlines in a back-end capacity, and 1 of them hasn't yet updated a SSIM file to OAG/Cirium. The other is SSM to the GDSs and whatnot, and they are doing cancels only 2-3 weeks out. Both airlines didn't appear on this list, but both have made significant changes.

Can confirm from the Ops side. Lots of scheduled service for April is not going to fly, expect more of the chaos we have been seeing for the last week.
 
SunsetLimited
Posts: 901
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:20 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:07 pm

Big AA cuts to be loaded tomorrow.
Spread hope like fire.
 
umichman
Posts: 141
Joined: Sun Apr 07, 2019 2:42 am

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:15 pm

SunsetLimited wrote:
Big AA cuts to be loaded tomorrow.


They will all be loading big cuts. DL has loaded a bunch of route drops for RDU and CVG for the month of April.
 
tphuang
Posts: 5210
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: OAG Changes 3/22/2020

Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:55 pm

umichman wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
Big AA cuts to be loaded tomorrow.


They will all be loading big cuts. DL has loaded a bunch of route drops for RDU and CVG for the month of April.

DL has also loaded a lot of cuts to BOS/JFK.

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