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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:01 pm

Naval Base Kitsap in a country of 275K people, we seem to be having 1 new case a day. The base does not disclose health statistics to the press or public. I understand that county statistics include everyone, including the base. The county and its citizens follow required and recommended public health procedures closely. From the little I gather from friends/relatives the base intends to stop infections on its properties. It appears to be succeeding*. Relevance to Boeing, I should hope that they are checking in on what Naval Base Kitsap and the county are doing. Just as we could stop global warming and help the economy at the same time, I believe we can stop the virus, and go back to work, prices may need to be raised a few percent to reflect new work practices that stop the virus.

As a side note, Republican in the state are presenting their new 'back to work bill', what does it actually do - reduce taxes, erode safe regulations, and cut wages.

*And it is having to do it with the crappy face masks available. Why didn't the feds plan ramping up mask production in January, first warnings of epidemic likely were the last couple days of December.
Last edited by frmrCapCadet on Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tomaheath
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Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:04 pm

PepeTheFrog wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I see things very differently. Boeing going back to production next week is not essential. People's health is. People can survive financial hardship. Death is permanent. Boeing can and will survive financial hardship. If things get really bad eventually stock holders might get wiped out, but Boeing will survive. It's happened to other companies before. All three of the legacy US airlines went through bankruptcy in the 00s and all rebounded. It took a few years but it happened. I think we can all agree that a dead person is never going to be not dead. Boeing is really foolish to be putting itself into this position.


Boeing has put safety measures in place. If people can go back to work safely, why not?

I agree. I work for a magazine printer and we’re considered a essential business so we are up and running safety.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:17 pm

2175301 wrote:
Have you ever gone to the Dr or to an emergency room and they ask you if your illness or injury is work related. If you answer "yes" the medical center First bills workers comp for the medical services.


Interesting question. In any other year, if a worker catches pnemonia via the regular flu at work, would they ask the same question?

Another interesting question is how many Boeing employee die every year due through stress related heart attack? It happens regulary when major program is really late getting to CDR. Do they charge that to work related or assign it to natural causes.

Work inside a 737 at FAI usually do not involve a lot of people as they increase chance for fod and tend to get into each other's way. Loading sidewalls, ceiling liners, or seats requires probably a crew of 3-4 each and they do it sequentially. With the new guideline, they probably will not do it concurrently.

It will be the same crew(s) day-in, day-out, so the chance of spreading is still reduced vs say going for grocery and passing dozens of people once a week.

bt
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smithbs
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Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:24 pm

Revelation wrote:
I see things very differently. Boeing going back to production next week is not essential. People's health is. People can survive financial hardship. Death is permanent. Boeing can and will survive financial hardship. If things get really bad eventually stock holders might get wiped out, but Boeing will survive. It's happened to other companies before. All three of the legacy US airlines went through bankruptcy in the 00s and all rebounded. It took a few years but it happened. I think we can all agree that a dead person is never going to be not dead. Boeing is really foolish to be putting itself into this position.


With all due respect, I think you missed my point. I do not view it as a black and white decision, but that you can do both. Let me give you an example. The company I'm with has a production line for heavy machinery fairly close to Seattle. The factory was opened last week because, believe it or not, there were actually some orders that were willing to be accepted. The factory went into operation while taking the CDC and WA state requirements into consideration, plus some extra measures the company decided upon. It can be done.

And the company is keen to do that because we are taking major financial damage. We, the workers of our company (or at least those of us who are left), like to think our financial security and therefore our employment is essential and therefore our company is not disposable. We've poured a lot of energy, resources and creativity into our company and we're trying hard to keep it afloat for the rebound.

But if you view Boeing as disposable, and by that logic every other airframer in the world as disposable, then we can't understand each other in this matter.

airzona11 wrote:
Individual people might survive but large groups, companies, societies cannot survive prolonged financial hardship. All 3 US legacies were actually 6+ companies, misleading to say they all survived. There’s a threshold where the pain and suffering from shutting down out of fear from what might happen exceeds the pain and suffering of what is actually happening. Reality is more wealth and jobs have been destroyed faster than anytime in history.

Essential businesses that have stayed open do not have employees dying at any rate or count that is different than society as a whole.

Boeing workers can choose not to go back to work. Those who want to go work can choose to do so. To say Boeing or any company can just wait it out is a unrealistic.


:thumbsup:
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:48 pm

smithbs wrote:
With all due respect, I think you missed my point. I do not view it as a black and white decision, but that you can do both. Let me give you an example. The company I'm with has a production line for heavy machinery fairly close to Seattle. The factory was opened last week because, believe it or not, there were actually some orders that were willing to be accepted. The factory went into operation while taking the CDC and WA state requirements into consideration, plus some extra measures the company decided upon. It can be done.

And the company is keen to do that because we are taking major financial damage. We, the workers of our company (or at least those of us who are left), like to think our financial security and therefore our employment is essential and therefore our company is not disposable. We've poured a lot of energy, resources and creativity into our company and we're trying hard to keep it afloat for the rebound.

But if you view Boeing as disposable, and by that logic every other airframer in the world as disposable, then we can't understand each other in this matter.

I view Boeing and/or your company as being more disposable than your life. I think if your company folds you probably can find another job, but if you are dead you definitely can't find another life.

I am not confident that CDC and WA state "requirements" provide acceptable safety. I think Boeing's statements aren't consistent and don't leave me feeling they are really adequately prepared with regard to procedures or supplies.

I fear return to work will cause a spike in virus transmission that will lead to hospitals being overwhelmed by people who would not be catching the virus if people just continued to quarantine.

I think people wanting to go back to work aren't really considering what happens if they get it or what happens if they transmit it to friends and loved ones without knowing it.

As above I now have a relative in the hospital battling COVID-19 and yes he was still working. Since he's the only one with symptoms in his house, I think we can assume he was the one who brought it into the house. I hope his wife and kids don't get it.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:42 pm

tomaheath wrote:
I agree. I work for a magazine printer and we’re considered a essential business so we are up and running safety.

Be careful out there, Tom.

I hope you and/or your loved ones don't end up sacrificing a lot more than you should so that essential magazines get published...

Ref: https://weather.com/coronavirus/l/9f205 ... 415cacfdf5
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tomaheath
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Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:01 pm

Revelation wrote:
tomaheath wrote:
I agree. I work for a magazine printer and we’re considered a essential business so we are up and running safety.

Be careful out there, Tom.

I hope you and/or your loved ones don't end up sacrificing a lot more than you should so that essential magazines get published...

Ref: https://weather.com/coronavirus/l/9f205 ... 415cacfdf5

You seem to know a lot more about me than I know of you! Haha. I’m actually not working now do to the person I live with being high risk. From what I was told because of the amount of mailing my employer does it’s considered essential business. It definitely slowed down tho but most of the customers said they should be up and running once everything settles out some. Getting back on topic here it’s very interesting what they consider essential and nonessential.
 
Cruiser
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:01 am

Just keep in mind - the CDC told healthcare workers that a bandana was acceptable if nothing else is available. This was no doubt done to reduce liability for the hospital's - not to actually protect the employees.
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DBCoop3r
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:01 am

The more and more real data coming in, the less deadly the virus is proving to be. The data suggests that there was a much larger wave that went thru the west coast than previously thought. The mortality rate is likely to be 1-2 in 1000, or on par with the flu, rather than 2-3 in 100 as previously thought. We'll see, but the trend is continuing to be in a positive direction.

Boeing is probably seeing the real time data and making these decisions.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:01 am

Revelation wrote:
I am not confident that CDC and WA state "requirements" provide acceptable safety. I


This is where we diverge in opinion. The CDC may not be trusted , but Washington State policy is being guided by the University of Washington medical organization, including the strong presense of the Med Tech industry that was drawn here by Paul Alen and the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation.

When the virus hit the Seattle, it was these organization that spearheaded the initial test and response when they were getting push back from the Feds.

You'll find that those government with large re-kmown Medical Educational Institution like Harvard, Standford and the UW seems to do a better job of listening to the medical expert.

bt
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bikerthai
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:06 am

DBCoop3r wrote:
The mortality rate is likely to be 1-2 in 1000, or on par with the flu, rather than 2-3 in 100 as previously thought.


Doesn't matter if the mortality rate/imfection is the same. This virus is much more infectious. So if the number of infection is much higher , the number of total death will be higher.

I've been looking at Washintion's number of deaths. They have gone from Just behind New York and New Jersey to being 12 th.


bt
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DBCoop3r
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:13 am

bikerthai wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
The mortality rate is likely to be 1-2 in 1000, or on par with the flu, rather than 2-3 in 100 as previously thought.


Doesn't matter if the mortality rate/imfection is the same. This virus is much more infectious. So if the number of infection is much higher , the number of total death will be higher.

bt


It does matter greatly, the working population (age, health, etc.) is barely affected. They should be working. The vulnerable, those elderly and those with underlying conditions that make them vulnerable, need to be protected and isolated. The healthy should be going about their lives as best they can while being as responsible as possible.

A blanket response for the situation is no longer the best path forward. Not blaming anybody for the current situation, nobody has all the info initially, but now that real data is coming in, it is time to change the response.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:25 am

DBCoop3r wrote:
The vulnerable, those elderly and those with underlying conditions that make them vulnerable, need to be protected and isolated.


This in itself is a generalization. Should one be considered vulnerable if one have asthma? How about a smoker? Or an obese person or one with diabeties? Like it or not that is a big chunk of the country. And don't be fooled. Even some people who are perfectly healthy can die from the infection when their immune system over reacted and end up destroying the organs. This was what happened to a doctor who treated the first COV patient in Washington State. He got infected, his immune system over reacted and his body shut down. They had to put him a coma and treated with experimental drugs to dial back his immune reaction. He came out of the coma and is recovering.

Dont get me wrong. I agree with you that there is a time to go back to work. That time may be soon. But I for one will be cautious. I have asthma and i've already let that to guide my career decision. I'm not about to change now.

bt
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DBCoop3r
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:45 am

bikerthai wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
The vulnerable, those elderly and those with underlying conditions that make them vulnerable, need to be protected and isolated.


This in itself is a generalization. Should one be considered vulnerable if one have asthma? How about a smoker? Or an obese person or one with diabeties? Like it or not that is a big chunk of the country. And don't be fooled. Even some people who are perfectly healthy can die from the infection when their immune system over reacted and end up destroying the organs. This was what happened to a doctor who treated the first COV patient in Washington State. He got infected, his immune system over reacted and his body shut down. They had to put him a coma and treated with experimental drugs to dial back his immune reaction. He came out of the coma and is recovering.

Dont get me wrong. I agree with you that there is a time to go back to work. That time may be soon. But I for one will be cautious. I have asthma and i've already let that to guide my career decision. I'm not about to change now.

bt


Generalization? No, it is *relativity* that is important.

The working population has a greater chance of dying in a car crash to and from work than they are to catch and then die from the virus. Of course you can argue that the risks are compounded now, but if we start living like that it is not worth living at all. Of course, if people don't feel safe, or have an underlying condition then they stay home for the time being, the rest can get back to work and try to minimize the impact that poverty and other issues of economic depression that weigh on people (including widespread death).

Again my point being, a blanket isolation measure for the entire population, knowing what we know now, is not the correct course of action anymore.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:16 pm

Gottlieb, an outstanding Republican medical think tank person, laid out the 4 phases of isolation. They are essentially the same as what UW and the CDC is recommending. Going to phase 2 and getting people back to work requires a lot of testing, and public health workers tracing contacts of those infected. We barely have the testing capacity to do phase 1, it may improve over the next few weeks. The incredibly miserable response of the federal government was Trump not making preparations for testing in January. He still is doing almost nothing to ramp up testing. And says its the governors' problem. It isn't they really don't have the money or authority to do it. The president does. And he has already said he is not responsible. Sigh!
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bikerthai
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:22 pm

Actually I agree that State government should decide on how to combat the pandemic. After all each state is different with different social norms. However the federal goverment's responsibility should be to coordinate the effort, provide a unified guideline for states to follow but not impose a time line either way, and most of all moving resources to where its need. This would be a more complex task, apparently too complex for our current president to grasp. Worst, the executive branch have been sending out conflicting signals, making the jobs at the state level more difficult in an already difficult situation.

So much frustration! And you can tweet that.

bt
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:03 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I am not confident that CDC and WA state "requirements" provide acceptable safety. I

This is where we diverge in opinion. The CDC may not be trusted , but Washington State policy is being guided by the University of Washington medical organization, including the strong presense of the Med Tech industry that was drawn here by Paul Alen and the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation.

When the virus hit the Seattle, it was these organization that spearheaded the initial test and response when they were getting push back from the Feds.

You'll find that those government with large re-kmown Medical Educational Institution like Harvard, Standford and the UW seems to do a better job of listening to the medical expert.

bt

The context, with me quoting "requirements", and Boeing saying temperature taking will be voluntary and PPE will be "readily available", is my way of stating my doubt that Boeing will be following the requirements of the medical experts well enough to ensure safety.

I guess we'll all find out...

DBCoop3r wrote:
The working population has a greater chance of dying in a car crash to and from work than they are to catch and then die from the virus. Of course you can argue that the risks are compounded now, but if we start living like that it is not worth living at all. Of course, if people don't feel safe, or have an underlying condition then they stay home for the time being, the rest can get back to work and try to minimize the impact that poverty and other issues of economic depression that weigh on people (including widespread death).

The point is that one person's decision to "make their life worth living" and expose themselves to the virus risks spreading the disease to a point where other people who mostly stick to isolation will not be able to get medical treatment.

It really is one group of people putting their own interests above another.

As above, it'd be one thing if these people sign a waiver saying they will not take medical treatment if they end up catching the virus because they chose to "make their life worth living", but they want the best of both worlds, freedom of action and full access to medical care.

I realize the data is wonky, as mentioned we failed to get out in front of the testing issue, along with the PPE issue and others. We can say the infection rate and fatality rate is low (it's still hard to hide a death) but that's because we've been in quarantine! Most experts feel the data under-represents the number of infections since testing is inadequate, yet one report I read said at best 10% of Americans have been exposed and there's still 300 million or so who have not yet been exposed so there's a lot of concern about relaxing the quarantine.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing to Stop Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:15 pm

tomaheath wrote:
Getting back on topic here it’s very interesting what they consider essential and nonessential.

We can be sure that in Florida, aircraft production is not essential, farming and tourism, yes.
As the states in the USA has most power over local industry, essential in each state may simply be defined by what is the largest industry employing the largest number of citizens who generate economic activity.
 
Noshow
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:26 pm

So how is the production getting restarted practically please? Does somebody check or map all those parts everywhere or is this pretty routine just like another shift beginning? Have any steps taken place already? How does it look like in real life? Thanks.
 
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Stitch
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:54 pm

DBCoop3r wrote:
The working population has a greater chance of dying in a car crash to and from work than they are to catch and then die from the virus.


The worry is that enough people get sick that they overwhelm the healthcare system. And that doesn't need to be a significant number of people.

Look at Italy - 181,000 people were infected, but because their healthcare system collapsed under the weight of those infected, the death toll was over 24,000. Even now, with full quarantine in place, while new cases are dropping rapidly, deaths are still significant due to a lack of treatment resources.

The US has over four times as many cases, but less than twice as many deaths. And it's likely not because our healthcare system is so super-amazing (it is if you can afford it, but a fair bit of the population cannot). It's because many states instituted restrictions early and "flattened the curve" so that the healthcare system could adequately treat the new cases as they happened.

Four US states are now starting re-opening processes. If they do not see spikes in infections and/or deaths, that will likely encourage other states to do the same. But if they do see a spike, that will only increase the pressure to maintain quarantines.
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:46 pm

DBCoop3r wrote:
The working population has a greater chance of dying in a car crash to and from work than they are to catch and then die from the virus.


I don't think that's even remotely true. Strong claims without any evidence.

Last week I was in a local hospital, and there *a lot* more "working class people" in treatment for Covid-19 (many of them fighting for their lives) than car crash victims.
In fact, there were so many Covid-19 patients, that all cancer treatments and non-urgent treatments were cancelled to make room for Covid-19 patients.
I have never heard of same medical protocols being introduced for car crash victims.

And all that despite the lock down being in position for over a month now. I can't even start to imagine how the situation would be without the lock down . . .
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KFTG
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:58 pm

PW100 wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
The working population has a greater chance of dying in a car crash to and from work than they are to catch and then die from the virus.


I don't think that's even remotely true. Strong claims without any evidence.

Last week I was in a local hospital, and there *a lot* more "working class people" in treatment for Covid-19 (many of them fighting for their lives) than car crash victims.
In fact, there were so many Covid-19 patients, that all cancer treatments and non-urgent treatments were cancelled to make room for Covid-19 patients.
I have never heard of same medical protocols being introduced for car crash victims.

And all that despite the lock down being in position for over a month now. I can't even start to imagine how the situation would be without the lock down . . .


I'm guessing "people I saw in the hospital last week" is not an adequate sample size to adequately judge the mortality of COVID-19.

I could be wrong though.

Give me a BREAK.


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DBCoop3r
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:31 pm

Revelation wrote:


DBCoop3r wrote:
The working population has a greater chance of dying in a car crash to and from work than they are to catch and then die from the virus. Of course you can argue that the risks are compounded now, but if we start living like that it is not worth living at all. Of course, if people don't feel safe, or have an underlying condition then they stay home for the time being, the rest can get back to work and try to minimize the impact that poverty and other issues of economic depression that weigh on people (including widespread death).

The point is that one person's decision to "make their life worth living" and expose themselves to the virus risks spreading the disease to a point where other people who mostly stick to isolation will not be able to get medical treatment.

It really is one group of people putting their own interests above another.

As above, it'd be one thing if these people sign a waiver saying they will not take medical treatment if they end up catching the virus because they chose to "make their life worth living", but they want the best of both worlds, freedom of action and full access to medical care.

I realize the data is wonky, as mentioned we failed to get out in front of the testing issue, along with the PPE issue and others. We can say the infection rate and fatality rate is low (it's still hard to hide a death) but that's because we've been in quarantine! Most experts feel the data under-represents the number of infections since testing is inadequate, yet one report I read said at best 10% of Americans have been exposed and there's still 300 million or so who have not yet been exposed so there's a lot of concern about relaxing the quarantine.


b.s.

As far as I've read you seem to be one of the most reasonable posters on here, assigning a sinister motive to someone you disagree with is probably below you. Especially with a situation that is not black or white in the least, there are so many factors.

The reason I brought up car accidents is because my brother and 6 year old niece died in one that kill 2 others as well. It was not their fault, they are dead, so are millions of others from auto accidents but that doesn't stop everyone from driving until there is no chance of dying in an auto accident. Yes I was angry at the world for weeks afterwards and wanted to blame someone or something, still doesn't mean the world should have stopped for the 10s of thousands that died in auto accidents that year. And look, no driving right now IS working! With terrible irony, the virus has saved thousands of lives by accidents (car, workplace, etc.) of all sorts are way down. So much so that insurance companies are lowering premiums even.

Driving policy by emotions will lead to things getting worse, not better.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:48 pm

So far I have not heard any news of Harbor View (our regional trauma center) and UW medical officials objecting to the coordinated re-opening plans of Washington-Oregon-California. Haven't heard them officially comment about Boeing's re-opening either.

In light of Washington sending back 400 respirators to be used in New York, that tells me they are optimistic that they have bent the curve giving the green light to Boeing and others to staging the return.

We don't expect office worker to return until late May or even in to June.

bt
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:04 pm

DBCoop3r wrote:
As far as I've read you seem to be one of the most reasonable posters on here, assigning a sinister motive to someone you disagree with is probably below you. Especially with a situation that is not black or white in the least, there are so many factors.

The reason I brought up car accidents is because my brother and 6 year old niece died in one that kill 2 others as well. It was not their fault, they are dead, so are millions of others from auto accidents but that doesn't stop everyone from driving until there is no chance of dying in an auto accident. Yes I was angry at the world for weeks afterwards and wanted to blame someone or something, still doesn't mean the world should have stopped for the 10s of thousands that died in auto accidents that year. And look, no driving right now IS working! With terrible irony, the virus has saved thousands of lives by accidents (car, workplace, etc.) of all sorts are way down. So much so that insurance companies are lowering premiums even.

Driving policy by emotions will lead to things getting worse, not better.

Thank you for your kind words and thoughtful post. It's OK if we don't agree.

It's never a good thing to try to draw equivalences between personal tragedies, so I won't go there.

Auto accidents and COVID-19 differ in an important way: one auto accident does not create potential for three more auto accidents, yet the average unquarantined COVID-19 carrier infects three more people (knowingly or unknowingly) before they recover or die.

That's why all the 'curves' we see are graphed with a logarithmic scale, 1 => 3 => 9 => 27 ... is exponential growth, just like an atom bomb.

The reason the curve is flattening is because we are in quarantine.

The original US projection without quarantining was for 2M deaths.

Without quarantining we will be back on that curve.

From a different thread, source is a NYT journalist who has been covering epidemics for close to two decades for the NYT:

    Well, you know, basically, they say that the notion that we're all going to be out of this in two or three months, and that football stadiums are going to be open in the fall and we will be all out together, is a fantasy, that, right now, somewhere north of 300 million Americans are still uninfected and vulnerable to the virus.

    If we all go out again, things will look good for two or three weeks, and then suddenly the infections will begin to tick up, and then the emergency rooms will fill, and we will be back on our way towards two million dead, which we were when the lockdown started.

    So that can't happen.
    And we won't really get out of this until we have either a vaccine or a prophylactic pill that will let us out.

Ref: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-g ... -a-fantasy
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:47 am

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Major U.S. business lobbying groups are asking Congress to pass measures that would protect companies large and small from coronavirus-related lawsuits when states start to lift pandemic restrictions and businesses begin to reopen.

That's how businesses are going to get protection from liability. Government let us open - it's not our fault!

The ethics of this move is a different question but nobody who understands the co-optation of U.S. government by business should be surprised.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKCN223179
 
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:47 am

bikerthai wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
The mortality rate is likely to be 1-2 in 1000, or on par with the flu, rather than 2-3 in 100 as previously thought.

Doesn't matter if the mortality rate/imfection is the same. This virus is much more infectious. So if the number of infection is much higher , the number of total death will be higher.

I've been looking at Washintion's number of deaths. They have gone from Just behind New York and New Jersey to being 12 th.
bt


Well we have now moved down to 15th, and Washingtion actually had the 1st case in the US and 3 of the first 20.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm a mix of libertarian and conservative so I usually think Inslee is weak, PC, and self centered. But his administration has dealt with COVID quite well, the stay at home orders were too strict in my opinion, but a lot better than many states. I feel that stores, businesses, and the construction industry could have been kept going PROVIDED there is a good work plan that is strictly followed. We deal with Hazmat cleanup all the time and know how to do PPE, COVID is another workplace hazard. Yes, there are jackasses everywhere that don't follow precautions, well having the state DOH come shut you down or have your power turned off on the 3rd violation usually.

Back in 1973 Oregon was in an incredible drought, the Governor back then basically banned outdoor lighting, in particular signs. It only took a couple businesses having their electric service locked out to obtain full compliance.

The two things that make COVID sinister is how contagious it is, along with the contagion happing both pre-symptoms and after symptoms appear. It's mortality is not particularly high, but wow its the first lockdown I've ever done.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:34 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
The two things that make COVID sinister is how contagious it is, along with the contagion happing both pre-symptoms and after symptoms appear. It's mortality is not particularly high, but wow its the first lockdown I've ever done.

It's mortality is not particularly high, but given how it attacks the respiratory system it puts a huge demand on the medical system. While many can ride it out at home, many cannot. Those who are in the hospital usually need a lot of care i.e. need ICU level facilities. It is a big challenge to meet the need for respirators and respiratory technicians who can do the intubations and can monitor the patients. Once you are intubated the machine is breathing for you, and if something goes wrong with it, you are in deep trouble.

My sick relative is getting better. On Thursday last week he went to his local hospital to try to get a test. His partner stayed in line from 5AM on hoping to get an appointment. At 8AM a worker handed tickets to the first 75 in line and four security guards sent the rest of the people home. He was not one of the 75. Saturday his partner brought him in to the ER because he was struggling to breath so they admitted him. He tested positive. For two days she heard nothing. She was not allowed into the hospital, she was not given a contact person to talk to. Monday she finally got a call back and status update from a nurse in his ward, and Tuesday (yesterday) they were able to arrange for him to have a cell phone and charger where he could text since he can't speak. He is on heavy oxygen treatment, thankfully not a respirator. He says he is feeling better (he is on pain meds as well as the malaria drug) so the treatments are working for him so far. Even without needing a respirator, we have one patient tying up a hospital bed for five days and still not released. It's a huge drain on the medical system.

One of his daughters who lives in his house also has tested positive. Everyone in the house is really worried since 2 out of 6 who live there are positive. One son who doesn't live in the house got it and was able to ride it out at his house, but it really kicked his ass (his language not mine). He is ex-military and a prison guard so he's a pretty tough guy, so it was a surprise to hear him say that.

The father works in a grocery warehouse so he was deemed essential. The son as I said is a prison guard, that's essential. Building airplanes that airlines don't want seems not essential to me. Seems to me we can wait a few months till our medical system is given a chance to catch up and get some rest. I know WA state got hit the earliest but cases in the Seattle area are still going up not down ( ref: https://weather.com/coronavirus/l/ced0d ... 54ca737114 ).
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lightsaber
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:38 pm

Revelation wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
The two things that make COVID sinister is how contagious it is, along with the contagion happing both pre-symptoms and after symptoms appear. It's mortality is not particularly high, but wow its the first lockdown I've ever done.

It's mortality is not particularly high, but given how it attacks the respiratory system it puts a huge demand on the medical system. While many can ride it out at home, many cannot. Those who are in the hospital usually need a lot of care i.e. need ICU level facilities. It is a big challenge to meet the need for respirators and respiratory technicians who can do the intubations and can monitor the patients. Once you are intubated the machine is breathing for you, and if something goes wrong with it, you are in deep trouble.

My sick relative is getting better. On Thursday last week he went to his local hospital to try to get a test. His partner stayed in line from 5AM on hoping to get an appointment. At 8AM a worker handed tickets to the first 75 in line and four security guards sent the rest of the people home. He was not one of the 75. Saturday his partner brought him in to the ER because he was struggling to breath so they admitted him. He tested positive. For two days she heard nothing. She was not allowed into the hospital, she was not given a contact person to talk to. Monday she finally got a call back and status update from a nurse in his ward, and Tuesday (yesterday) they were able to arrange for him to have a cell phone and charger where he could text since he can't speak. He is on heavy oxygen treatment, thankfully not a respirator. He says he is feeling better (he is on pain meds as well as the malaria drug) so the treatments are working for him so far. Even without needing a respirator, we have one patient tying up a hospital bed for five days and still not released. It's a huge drain on the medical system.

One of his daughters who lives in his house also has tested positive. Everyone in the house is really worried since 2 out of 6 who live there are positive. One son who doesn't live in the house got it and was able to ride it out at his house, but it really kicked his ass (his language not mine). He is ex-military and a prison guard so he's a pretty tough guy, so it was a surprise to hear him say that.

The father works in a grocery warehouse so he was deemed essential. The son as I said is a prison guard, that's essential. Building airplanes that airlines don't want seems not essential to me. Seems to me we can wait a few months till our medical system is given a chance to catch up and get some rest. I know WA state got hit the earliest but cases in the Seattle area are still going up not down ( ref: https://weather.com/coronavirus/l/ced0d ... 54ca737114 ).

Do companies produce or go bankrupt? I have friends who are over Covid19. We do need more testing, but right now we are on track to be short on chemicals and food by mid-summer. No one is smart enough to know everything we need.

People need to be wise. e.g., masks cut Ro by 1 or so.

I'm not saying open up Disneyland or the cruise lines, but eventually everyone must work. State unemployment is almost out of money. Unless tax receipts restart, there is only cutting ahead.

This isn't a joke. It must be taken very seriously. But even NYC didn't fill up hospitals. All my doctor friends are having pay and hours cut as there aren't enough people at the hospitals.

I work Aerospace. We have a majority of the work force at home and productivity has dropped by more than 50% in a paper intensive business.

Aerospace factories are huge. Wear masks, social distance, and Do what South Korea did to have tons if tests: privatize them.

Get the factories working or the lack of money means we all starve.

Lightsaber
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frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:16 pm

Cries out for leadership not tweets from the white house
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:33 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Do companies produce or go bankrupt? I have friends who are over Covid19. We do need more testing, but right now we are on track to be short on chemicals and food by mid-summer. No one is smart enough to know everything we need.

How smart do we need to be to figure out we don't need more airliners any time soon?

As per our other thread, one airline has just squeezed out another 15% discount beyond the 55% discount they already had on a 787 aircraft. Others will follow. Boeing is probably finding itself in the same place as the oil industry, paying customers to take product.

Poor Boeing. A year plus crisis of its own making, now an even bigger crisis not of its own making. Tough decisions need to be made.

The current CEO was a board member all throughout the MAX development cycle and the MCAS crisis. It seems to me he's not added any new approaches to any of their problems. It seems to me by restarting production he's making things worse rather than better. It seems he's being guided by fear and by momentum rather than by analysis and insight.

Bankruptcy is a bad thing, death is worse. I've helped several friends and relatives through bankruptcy. I haven't helped anyone through death.
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Exeiowa
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:42 pm

The problem is that everyone needs money because they owe other people (companies and individuals) we are not all going to imminently starve to death, but people will be unable to service those loans and rent payments. At this point individuals are expected to foot the bill and partially government. People owed money have 'not done their share" in my opinion. as part of the crisis in sharing the pain. It is in example of how capital Is treated differently to labour. Capital still expects the return even if labor cant work.

I think this is why its good not to make your own problems because you are less able to deal with the ones you do not create/
 
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:50 pm

The weekly rate is too coarse to see the trend. Is there a place we can see the curve for the individual states?

Looking at the Washington death I see it is 12th in the nation. But looking at the infected, I see many states with higher numbers. I suspect those states (like Texas) mortality number will pass Wahington's soon.

The link noted above by Revelation is for King County which encompass the Renton (737), Kent (Space), Auburn (Manufacturing), and Boeing Field (commercial developmental, 737 delivery and military derivatives - P8 and KC.). With the 737 line in hiatus anyway, the biggest labor force would be in Everett, which is Snohomish County. Most of the operation in King Co other than the 737 line but including the P-8 line should be considered essential.

bt
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PW100
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 3:20 pm

KFTG wrote:
PW100 wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
The working population has a greater chance of dying in a car crash to and from work than they are to catch and then die from the virus.

I don't think that's even remotely true. Strong claims without any evidence.

Last week I was in a local hospital, and there *a lot* more "working class people" in treatment for Covid-19 (many of them fighting for their lives) than car crash victims.
In fact, there were so many Covid-19 patients, that all cancer treatments and non-urgent treatments were cancelled to make room for Covid-19 patients.
I have never heard of same medical protocols being introduced for car crash victims.

And all that despite the lock down being in position for over a month now. I can't even start to imagine how the situation would be without the lock down . . .

I'm guessing "people I saw in the hospital last week" is not an adequate sample size to adequately judge the mortality of COVID-19.

I could be wrong though.

Give me a BREAK.


Not sure why I should give you a break.
But, you were not wrong; it was by no means an adequate sample size. Reality is that it is even much worse . . .

In any case, I wasn't trying to demonstrate a perfect sample; I was just trying to point out that the original claim made no sense . . . at all.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:55 pm

Ok here is another question, how much different is the process that Airbus uses to produce a/c in the EU versus what Boeing does in the USA?
As far as I know Airbus had shut down for a couple weeks but is now back in business.
 
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 7:29 pm

Stitch wrote:
DBCoop3r wrote:
The working population has a greater chance of dying in a car crash to and from work than they are to catch and then die from the virus.


The worry is that enough people get sick that they overwhelm the healthcare system. And that doesn't need to be a significant number of people.

Look at Italy - 181,000 people were infected, but because their healthcare system collapsed under the weight of those infected, the death toll was over 24,000. Even now, with full quarantine in place, while new cases are dropping rapidly, deaths are still significant due to a lack of treatment resources.

The US has over four times as many cases, but less than twice as many deaths. And it's likely not because our healthcare system is so super-amazing (it is if you can afford it, but a fair bit of the population cannot). It's because many states instituted restrictions early and "flattened the curve" so that the healthcare system could adequately treat the new cases as they happened.

Four US states are now starting re-opening processes. If they do not see spikes in infections and/or deaths, that will likely encourage other states to do the same. But if they do see a spike, that will only increase the pressure to maintain quarantines.


I strongly suspect the overwhelming of health care capacity in Italy was only a small part of the difference, and the overwhelming of testing capacity was a far more significant factor. If Italy has the same infection fatality rate as elsewhere, then the research I've been seeing that attempts to estimate the infection fatality rate suggests there should be in the ballpark of 2-4 million infections in Italy.

The plan being promoted by most authorities is to reduce restrictions in phases. So that might start with opening non-essential businesses that can maintain distancing guidelines, and allowing small group non-business activities where so that contact tracing can still be largely effective when cases do arise.

Epidemiologists are modelling these scenarios now, and some detailed results are expected soon. University of Washington share some preliminary results in the last couple of days that indicate on a state-by-state basis when they think infection rates will drop to a level where many researchers believe moderate restrictions, combined with a high level of ongoing testing and contact tracing for every case, can prevent a second wave.

Boeing was given clearance by Washington state. Given the size of their operations and their prominence, I would wager they reviewed their onsite mitigation plans with the state health officials rather than risk being publicly called out, legally penalized, or facing union grievances.

par13del wrote:
Ok here is another question, how much different is the process that Airbus uses to produce a/c in the EU versus what Boeing does in the USA?
As far as I know Airbus had shut down for a couple weeks but is now back in business.


The processes are generally similar. I would rate Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, and Bombardier factories as generally comparable in terms of frequency and proximity of interactions, and potential to limit those interactions.

As far as I have heard, Airbus shutdown their Spain and France facilities for 4 days in March. The Mobile, Alabama factory is currently closed. I didn't hear news about the Germany and UK facilities or whether there have been additional Spain and France shutdowns.
 
Exeiowa
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:37 pm

The evidence suggests that in areas where there are no restrictions people from restricted areas travel in. Those restricted areas will be the one with the higher number of cases. This has to be done really carefully as restrictions on travelling do not exist in the US and this movement has to be accounted for as part of any plan.
 
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:39 am

par13del wrote:
Ok here is another question, how much different is the process that Airbus uses to produce a/c in the EU versus what Boeing does in the USA?
As far as I know Airbus had shut down for a couple weeks but is now back in business.


I'd think the shape of the functional organisation they need to design and build aircrafts can't be that different.

Where Airbus may be better prepared for such a crisis is that it's in its DNA to have not only production organisation but also design organisation spreaded all accross europe ! Let me explain :
For production, the Blue Collars, the goal is to ensure a maximum physical separation between workers doing their tasks (when possible, of course, the need is to optimise within the constraint). It's not an easy job to reorganise the building sequence to ensure that ; and Boeing and Airbus should face more or less the same challenges in this field.
For the support and design function, a massive "work from home" policy is at the core of Airbus answer. Don't know if it's the same for Boeing but for Airbus that is not only an effective but also a cheap solution as those function were pretty much "work at distance" ready. All it needed was to improve the VPN servers bandwith for protected data management and develop smartphone apps to exploit the 4G provider network rather tha VPN for non critical stuff. A week of shut down et voila ! Of course that's not as effective as before, but effective enough do deal with the situation.

It seems to me you are suggesting that if Airbus did it then Boeing should be able to do it too. I'm not sure Boeing have the roots Airbus had to be able to adapt and "restart COVID-ready" after a short shut down. Of course, I may be wrong ;)
Good point for Boeing though, they don't to need improve the 737 line much to do MUCH better than previous months :duck:

In the end, all of this matter little. None is restarting to pump out 50+ single aisle or 15+ widebody a month, the aim is not to deliver aircraft at high rate anymore but simply maintain a flow and have an overview on the supply chain, and doing it effectively as cheap as possible. You know, identify early when the provider of the odd little part is going down and find/qualify early another one is a huge saving !

Both OEM will take the hit of a big slow down and should survive it, I don't think what is important now is how they manage in the weeks to come, but how ready they are once the crisis is behind us.
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bikerthai
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:36 am

Grizzly410 wrote:
I'm not sure Boeing have the roots Airbus had to be able to adapt and "restart COVID-ready" after a short shut down.


Well Boeing shut down every year for about 2 weeks during the Christmas. I'm sure it not the same as the month of Vacation shut down that Airbus goes though, but the process should be the same.

bt
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:04 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Grizzly410 wrote:
I'm not sure Boeing have the roots Airbus had to be able to adapt and "restart COVID-ready" after a short shut down.


Well Boeing shut down every year for about 2 weeks during the Christmas. I'm sure it not the same as the month of Vacation shut down that Airbus goes though, but the process should be the same.

bt


I didn't put "restart Covid-ready" for nothing.
After a standard Christmas break you just restart with the same organisation and way of working. Easy. After the covid shutdown Airbus restarted with massive organisationnal changes in order to ensure safe operation. Very different situation.
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bikerthai
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:39 pm

Why would you need organization change? Don't you mean operation and processes changes?

If you really meant organization change then that is a bad sign as any company reorganize too often means that company isn't functioning too smoothly.

The last time Boeing had a massive organization change was with the MD merger. There were a couple of smaller reorganization later on as they shuffle the various divisions.

The only other major manufacturing disruption I can recall were the stop work in the mid 1990 because of massive manufacturing problems relating to rate increase, 9/11 impact, and the Nisqually earthquake.

In those situation, when they started up, there was some process changes, but mot as much as they will face this time.

I think you'll find starting up after Covid-19 will go smoothly, albeit at a slower pace. I would worry more when you have massive layoffs which through union rules, move people around or when you have massive hiring of inexperience people. That is when you are going run into manufacturing issues.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Thu Apr 23, 2020 2:01 pm

I am sure that the commander (and the staff at) of Naval Base Kitsap would spare a little of her (their) already overscheduled time to give Boeing some clues on how to work hard, effectively, and safely in the time of Covid-19. It can be done.
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bikerthai
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:40 pm

There's a couple of article in the Seattle Times that gives a peek into Boeing return to work concern. Just like anything else, not every employee agrees, but that is expected.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.seattl ... s/%3famp=1

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:06 pm

The only good news about less employees and 787 production cut in half will be less opportunities for COVID-19 to spread:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ing-demand
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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bikerthai
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Re: Boeing to Restart Washington State Aircraft Production

Fri Apr 24, 2020 5:51 pm

Even if the demand did not drop, keeping the line open at rate would be nearly impossible with various suppliers across the various states and countries being shutdown at different levels and times. Talk about a scheduling nightmare.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.

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