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whiplash
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India shuts down aviation completely

Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:09 pm

India will be suspending all domestic scheduled and unscheduled operations on March 24 at 2359 LT for an undetermined period of time. All states in the country have gone into complete lockdown. Railways, interstate buses, metro lines, and international flights were recently suspended as well.
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DTWLAX
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:17 am

whiplash wrote:
India will be suspending all domestic scheduled and unscheduled operations on March 24 at 2359 LT for an undetermined period of time. All states in the country have gone into complete lockdown. Railways, interstate buses, metro lines, and international flights were recently suspended as well.

Not for an undetermined period. Domestic flights suspended up to March 31st.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:28 am

Please post links, otherwise this is rumor.
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9252fly
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:46 am

lightsaber wrote:
Please post links, otherwise this is rumor.


https://www.flightglobal.com/networks/i ... 75.article

I cannot think of another country where the virus could be any more devastating when considering the potential loss of life. Having been to India a few times, it's a very sad thought.
 
airboss787
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:55 am

Good response. This virus deserves to be met with force otherwise India will be very badly affected.
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slcdeltarumd11
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:01 am

It's impossible for most people in India to self isolate. Very good move for them. Europe, NA, Russia, Australia self isolation is realistic, in India its hard to imagine given the density most of the country has. This could spread like a wildfire.
 
JustSomeDood
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:06 am

No carrier in India has the balance sheet to realistically withstand shutting down all of their operations if it goes on for a while (which is likely). I can see Air India and maybe Indigo being able to survive through this, for everyone else, it won't be pretty unless Tata is willing to inject some capital into their JVs.
 
whiplash
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:40 am

Runway 27 in Delhi is now a parking bay for A320s and 737s from all airlines.
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stl07
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:58 am

Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
Blerg
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:59 am

stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing


There has to be a fine balance between fighting the virus and preventing the economy from collapsing. Simply isolating your people is not enough if you don't have adequate measures that follow. Will India have those? Will they massively test people for corona? Do they have facilities for isolation? Do they have enough respirators?

You need to look at the whole picture and not just a part of it. Many European countries have shut down their aviation but number of infected people keeps on growing.
 
pune
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:24 am

whiplash wrote:
Runway 27 in Delhi is now a parking bay for A320s and 737s from all airlines.


wouldn't that be a sight to see but guess only very few personnel would be able to see/witness this.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:15 pm

stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing


Doesn't work that way. The whole world will have to follow suit in sync for me to go have a vacation in Switzerland, say.
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WayexTDI
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:24 pm

stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing

"but the economy" is not a BS excuse.
Who is going to put food on your table when you don't have a job and barely have any savings? Who is going to restock the stores since you don't have a garden to grow your own veggies, chicken in your backyard for eggs or a cow for milk?
Easy to say "let's stop every thing, let's confine everybody in their homes and the virus will flush itself out"; you'll end up with millions of people dead from starving and hundreds of millions in the streets penniless...
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:02 pm

If you follow twitter, for weeks Indian airports didn't screen many, didn't deploy thermal scanners, airlines didn't provide masks to the crew. Still don't have enough test kits.

So this could be just another praise the leader exercise, wait few more weeks before the applause.

Weather is getting pretty hot, and because of pollution, Indians always cover their mouth and nose with any piece of cloth most of the time while out, which may look primitive, but effective. May very well work in beating this virus.

Interestingly now CDC is suggesting the same techniques as using scarves and bandanas to medical professionals in the USA. Should have told general public to use those so there wouldn't be a shortage of masks for medical professionals.
All posts are just opinions.
 
avier
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:08 pm

So the PM has announced a 21 day lockdown for the whole country. I believe this would extend to the entire Indian aviation sector (barring cargo).
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 1585062512
 
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lightsaber
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:26 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing

"but the economy" is not a BS excuse.
Who is going to put food on your table when you don't have a job and barely have any savings? Who is going to restock the stores since you don't have a garden to grow your own veggies, chicken in your backyard for eggs or a cow for milk?
Easy to say "let's stop every thing, let's confine everybody in their homes and the virus will flush itself out"; you'll end up with millions of people dead from starving and hundreds of millions in the streets penniless...

This has two further questions: Who will employ your customer? I listened to my grandparents stories if friends dying of starvation in the depression. Who went hungry when work was scarce.

Good luck finding the right balance in India.
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pune
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:38 pm

lightsaber wrote:
WayexTDI wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing

"but the economy" is not a BS excuse.
Who is going to put food on your table when you don't have a job and barely have any savings? Who is going to restock the stores since you don't have a garden to grow your own veggies, chicken in your backyard for eggs or a cow for milk?
Easy to say "let's stop every thing, let's confine everybody in their homes and the virus will flush itself out"; you'll end up with millions of people dead from starving and hundreds of millions in the streets penniless...

This has two further questions: Who will employ your customer? I listened to my grandparents stories if friends dying of starvation in the depression. Who went hungry when work was scarce.

Good luck finding the right balance in India.


At least in the depression, people were able to be up and about although I'm sure there would have been lot of law and order problems for sure, and this is possibly what will happen in Indian cities as well. With the 21-day lockdown, it's always the big picture, not the details which are actually more important. For us, the question is how do we get food/veggies, for many it will be question of employment. All questions, no answers sadly :(
 
oceanvikram
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:42 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing

"but the economy" is not a BS excuse.
Who is going to put food on your table when you don't have a job and barely have any savings? Who is going to restock the stores since you don't have a garden to grow your own veggies, chicken in your backyard for eggs or a cow for milk?
Easy to say "let's stop every thing, let's confine everybody in their homes and the virus will flush itself out"; you'll end up with millions of people dead from starving and hundreds of millions in the streets penniless...


Millions of people were already starving before the Convid-19. And since when did the Indian middle class and above cared for the poor and the destitute? If they did, corruption would end, rule of law would be applied. And the pervasive entitlement attitude would disappear.

See how the domestic helpers are treated? Notice how they are spoken to … if my boss ever speaks to me like that, trust me he/she will have a broken nose.

And then bargaining for 10cents, so that one can feel that they have not been cheated by the vegetable seller. 10cents could go a long way for the vegetable seller and for that buyer, well wait for another week so he/she can save up for the trip for Dubai, Bangkok or Singapore.

Let’s talk about the beggars, every single middle class and above says that they are lazy and it is a business. “That beggar has pinched her baby so to look more sympathetic.” Does anyone want to bet their house on such a statement, the zeal of which it is said, the alternative is not possible.

Now there is a 21 day lockdown or “curfew”. Yes some of the middle class and above are going to hit in their hip pocket or loose their job. Once this crises is over, aviation in India and the rest of the world will be much different. Most likely the market will get smaller.

The poor … well they don’t even have a chance to dream to be on a plane. I am guessing they are dreaming about their own and their family’s safety, security and not worrying about where and when their next meal is coming.
My comments are based as an aviation enthusiast first, then as a passenger who paid for his own ticket, after that a passenger on a business trip and finally an armchair CEO.
 
avier
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:16 pm

pune wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This has two further questions: Who will employ your customer? I listened to my grandparents stories if friends dying of starvation in the depression. Who went hungry when work was scarce.

Good luck finding the right balance in India.


At least in the depression, people were able to be up and about although I'm sure there would have been lot of law and order problems for sure, and this is possibly what will happen in Indian cities as well. With the 21-day lockdown, it's always the big picture, not the details which are actually more important. For us, the question is how do we get food/veggies, for many it will be question of employment. All questions, no answers sadly :(


Questions are going to be asked whether with a scenario of lockdown or not. Even in the latter case, i.e no lockdown, a lot of questions will be raised about controlling the situation. And it's understood by now the only way it can be contained is through a full lockdown scenario, as seen in other countries.

There is, no doubt, going to be suffering/loss for most in some way or the other, and the economy of the country as a whole, with the worst affected being in the lower rung of society.
But the no-lockdown scenario could be far worst, and unfathomable.

So it all comes down to choosing the lesser of the two evils.
 
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SQ22
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm

This thread is about the aviation shutdown in India. Please stay on topic and discuss the general situation in Non-Aviation Forum.

Novel Coronavirus outbreak
 
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stl07
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:48 pm

Look, everyone, my post was specifically about the economy in regards to passenger AVIATION because this is the AVIATION section. The faster India shuts down, the faster the virus passes through, and the faster people start flying again and employees get back to work. I have been active in the non-av section about my opinions on the virus overall, and you can discuss with me there
Instead of typing in "mods", consider using the report function.
Love how every "travel blogger" says they will never fly AA/Ethihad again and then says it again and again on subsequent flights.
 
pune
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:12 pm

avier wrote:
pune wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This has two further questions: Who will employ your customer? I listened to my grandparents stories if friends dying of starvation in the depression. Who went hungry when work was scarce.

Good luck finding the right balance in India.


At least in the depression, people were able to be up and about although I'm sure there would have been lot of law and order problems for sure, and this is possibly what will happen in Indian cities as well. With the 21-day lockdown, it's always the big picture, not the details which are actually more important. For us, the question is how do we get food/veggies, for many it will be question of employment. All questions, no answers sadly :(


Questions are going to be asked whether with a scenario of lockdown or not. Even in the latter case, i.e no lockdown, a lot of questions will be raised about controlling the situation. And it's understood by now the only way it can be contained is through a full lockdown scenario, as seen in other countries.

There is, no doubt, going to be suffering/loss for most in some way or the other, and the economy of the country as a whole, with the worst affected being in the lower rung of society.
But the no-lockdown scenario could be far worst, and unfathomable.

So it all comes down to choosing the lesser of the two evils.


The only thing that will save us is more and more testing. This is what the countries who have succeeded have done.

See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCLGkkBw42A
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:48 pm

stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing

You do realize that this virus is not going away and it's not gonna pass over India forever

India can't lock down each time this happens

Now I'm not against the lockdown (I'm for it for other reasons) but the economy is the largest factor you gotta consider second to health.

This is a one-time thing to buy time to be more prepared for when it DOES sweep across the country, because it will. Unless they lock down indefinitely. If that happens, coronavirus will be the least of their worries. When it revisits India hopefully we are all prepared...
 
pune
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:45 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing

You do realize that this virus is not going away and it's not gonna pass over India forever

India can't lock down each time this happens

Now I'm not against the lockdown (I'm for it for other reasons) but the economy is the largest factor you gotta consider second to health.

This is a one-time thing to buy time to be more prepared for when it DOES sweep across the country, because it will. Unless they lock down indefinitely. If that happens, coronavirus will be the least of their worries. When it revisits India hopefully we are all prepared...


What is being said it will happen in waves. So we need to be prepared for that. Right now we are not prepared for all. Iceland is testing its population at large - See https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... ng-iceland

We also need to know that we could have people who show no symptons and still be infected, called asymptomatic which has been shown in various countries, China, South Korea, Iceland . So you and I could be carriers without showing any symptons and we wouldn't know. The wave bit you are talking about has already hit quite a few countries in asia, see https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51955931

On top of it we are just ill-prepared, see https://www.newslaundry.com/2020/03/23/ ... -that-away and from scroll https://scroll.in/pulse/957025/explaine ... r-covid-19

for asymptomatic patients see https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rd-to-stop

and last but not the least see the reproduction numbers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

The good thing if anything could be called as a good thing is the home ministry has put out some guidelines

https://iasbaba.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... vid-19.pdf

At the end of the day, we need to have more and more tests which is not happening for multiple reasons. We just have to see where we go from here.
 
VTORD
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:24 pm

stl07 wrote:
Look, everyone, my post was specifically about the economy in regards to passenger AVIATION because this is the AVIATION section. The faster India shuts down, the faster the virus passes through, and the faster people start flying again and employees get back to work. I have been active in the non-av section about my opinions on the virus overall, and you can discuss with me there

With aviation shut down totally for the next 21 days, you will find it very difficult to keep this on topic to aviation only without the segue into the COVID testing discussion. I think Indian aviation thread can very well handle this discussion. That being said key points to ponder:
1. Do we see an airline folding? Spice Jet (SG), Go Air (G8) and Vistara (UK) are all loss making by hundreds of crores.
2. AI divestment - not happening IMHO anytime soon with all the cost cutting doing the rounds. Plus with such situations AI always gets the "salute to Air India heroes" publicity for their rescue flights which will bring out the inevitable "why sell" debate
3. Vistara international expansion - this really throws a spanner in their works
4. What will the international n/w look out of India when the dust settles?
 
vadodara
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:37 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing

"but the economy" is not a BS excuse.
Who is going to put food on your table when you don't have a job and barely have any savings? Who is going to restock the stores since you don't have a garden to grow your own veggies, chicken in your backyard for eggs or a cow for milk?
Easy to say "let's stop every thing, let's confine everybody in their homes and the virus will flush itself out"; you'll end up with millions of people dead from starving and hundreds of millions in the streets penniless...


So the govt. had generally done a good job in getting people from infected areas such as Wuhan, Iran, S. E. Asia quarantined and recover.

It appears that travellers from Europe and US (NY in particular) seem to be the cause of the spread. Certainly shame on governments for not reacting appropriately. After all, the Chinese Virus does not seem to discriminate about race.

Since this is about aviation, it appears that grounding wide-bodies might have been the cheaper option to contain this pandemic.
 
vadodara
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Tue Mar 24, 2020 11:40 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
You do realize that this virus is not going away and it's not gonna pass over India forever

India can't lock down each time this happens

Now I'm not against the lockdown (I'm for it for other reasons) but the economy is the largest factor you gotta consider second to health.

This is a one-time thing to buy time to be more prepared for when it DOES sweep across the country, because it will. Unless they lock down indefinitely. If that happens, coronavirus will be the least of their worries. When it revisits India hopefully we are all prepared...


Hmm! If likes of DL had shut down JFK and LGA earlier, perhaps, NY would have been spared the steep ramp in Covid-19 we should soon discover.
 
airboss787
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:14 am

Spiderguy252 wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing


Doesn't work that way. The whole world will have to follow suit in sync for me to go have a vacation in Switzerland, say.


But how about a vacation to say, Kerala or Rajasthan? Rather have this hard stop to travel than keeping them open and increasing losses for airlines.
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airboss787
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:19 am

DeltaMD90 wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing

You do realize that this virus is not going away and it's not gonna pass over India forever

India can't lock down each time this happens

Now I'm not against the lockdown (I'm for it for other reasons) but the economy is the largest factor you gotta consider second to health.

This is a one-time thing to buy time to be more prepared for when it DOES sweep across the country, because it will. Unless they lock down indefinitely. If that happens, coronavirus will be the least of their worries. When it revisits India hopefully we are all prepared...


Like you said, health is first and second is economy. If health is failing there is no economy. If no one is out spreading it and the infected are also contained, then the spread will reduce and it will help lockdown the virus.

I agree this is a great initiative and better now than when it is like the US or Italy or Spain where it just gets harder to get better. With only 500 cases, it is still not out of control.
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pune
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:43 am

airboss787 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
stl07 wrote:
Finally, a country actually reacting to the crisis instead of using the BS "but the economy" excuse that some in the western world are still using. Funny thing is that when you shut down the country and eliminate the virus, you can get your economy back up to normal much faster. People in India will be flying sooner, and going on vacations much sooner than places like the US who are still too busy pretending to save their economy and airlines to realize the harm they are doing

You do realize that this virus is not going away and it's not gonna pass over India forever

India can't lock down each time this happens

Now I'm not against the lockdown (I'm for it for other reasons) but the economy is the largest factor you gotta consider second to health.

This is a one-time thing to buy time to be more prepared for when it DOES sweep across the country, because it will. Unless they lock down indefinitely. If that happens, coronavirus will be the least of their worries. When it revisits India hopefully we are all prepared...


Like you said, health is first and second is economy. If health is failing there is no economy. If no one is out spreading it and the infected are also contained, then the spread will reduce and it will help lockdown the virus.

I agree this is a great initiative and better now than when it is like the US or Italy or Spain where it just gets harder to get better. With only 500 cases, it is still not out of control.


Missing the point, we need to carry out those tests. Just quarantine is one measure. Dunno if you read the buzzfeed article

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... ng-iceland

that is the only way

and India's preparations are far far short see -

https://scroll.in/pulse/957025/explaine ... r-covid-19

https://www.newslaundry.com/2020/03/23/ ... -that-away

As far as airlines are concerned, some could turn their aircraft into temporary cargo airplanes like I was reading a day or two ago. Is there enough demand for cargo planes is an open question for which there are no straight answers.

At least one or two airports should be notified as having quarantine facilities and medical facilities but haven't read any news as of such. We still seem to be in a reactionary stage rather than being pro-active sadly :(
 
avier
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:38 am

VTORD wrote:
With aviation shut down totally for the next 21 days, you will find it very difficult to keep this on topic to aviation only without the segue into the COVID testing discussion. I think Indian aviation thread can very well handle this discussion. That being said key points to ponder:
1. Do we see an airline folding? Spice Jet (SG), Go Air (G8) and Vistara (UK) are all loss making by hundreds of crores.
2. AI divestment - not happening IMHO anytime soon with all the cost cutting doing the rounds. Plus with such situations AI always gets the "salute to Air India heroes" publicity for their rescue flights which will bring out the inevitable "why sell" debate
3. Vistara international expansion - this really throws a spanner in their works
4. What will the international n/w look out of India when the dust settles?


Not entirely true about GoAir. Their debt exposure isn't so much compared to their peers, and they haven't been making hundreds of crores of losses. They either break-even or make marginal to decent profits. They have extremely lean operations and are the only one to have truly stuck to a simplified fleet and operations. And regarding their promoters, they are big industrialists and have one of the oldest company in the country. Their other industries are extremely profitable too. I wonder if that could act as a cushion for their aviation business, similar like the TATA's and their aviation ventures.

Spicejet will obviously be the most vulnerable based on their cash reserves, and I also can't find much info on what Mr. Singh's other business activities are that could act as a buffer to Spice. All they have is their SOS speed dial to the current govt.

In this lockdown scenario, I actually feel IndiGo could also become the most vulnerable as they are the biggest. The biggest would be burning the most cash on a per day basis even with all ops suspended. Imagine all those lease rentals for their 250+ fleet and other costs. Yes, they have their cash reserves, but they can burn through that quickly considering how big they also are.

Regarding AirAsia India, I read they might downsize their Indian ops.

Air India should most likely shutdown, despite the emotional sentiments people have towards their rescue ops. After all they get paid by the govt for those ops, and they ain't doing some charity out of their service. They act more like a charter company in times of crisis. I'm sure other airlines could play that role too when they will be paid well by the govt for such ops.
 
pune
Posts: 367
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:00 am

avier wrote:

Air India should most likely shutdown, despite the emotional sentiments people have towards their rescue ops. After all they get paid by the govt for those ops, and they ain't doing some charity out of their service. They act more like a charter company in times of crisis. I'm sure other airlines could play that role too when they will be paid well by the govt for such ops.


You are making as assumption that Govt. pays well in advance to Air India, do you have any proof of that ? From what I recall and I remember this from couple of years back, the Govt. didn't pay Air India whether it was in Uttarakhand or other natural/man-made tragedies until a year or two after the situation had been resolved. Why would you think that the Govt. would change its policies unless it's crony capitalism. Even in Govt. contracts the standard is they only pay 6 months after the contract is fulfilled/work done and more often than not, the businessman has to grease a few palms to ensure he gets his due. All of this is already factored into the contract or the contract prices get changed if the contractor is a well-known entity (like Ambani, Adani etc.) The basic fact is, the govt. does get away with a lot what would never work in the private sector.
 
avier
Posts: 1078
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:09 am

pune wrote:
You are making as assumption that Govt. pays well in advance to Air India, do you have any proof of that ? From what I recall and I remember this from couple of years back, the Govt. didn't pay Air India whether it was in Uttarakhand or other natural/man-made tragedies until a year or two after situation had been resolved.

Well, I wasn't making the point of advance payments.
They receive those payments 6 months or ten years later, that doesn't matter. They are, as a company, still wholy owned and dependent on the govt. of India.
It's not like they sustain on their own as a company and make such payments for rescue missions from past profits/cash reserves. They don't have any! They would simply be kept as deferred payments to oil cos, airports, other vendors etc which would be paid of in the future by the govt. through AI.
 
Sokes
Posts: 1190
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:14 pm

Non aviation forum topic specifically about the India lockdown:
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1443409
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
avier
Posts: 1078
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:28 pm

After this nation-wide lockdown of aviation, what is the possibility of airlines operating cargo only flights on regular passenger aircrafts?
Airlines do tend to carry a decent amount of cargo in their aircraft belly on regular commercial flights.
Thats the whole reason SpiceJet got into dedicated cargo business- (SpiceExpress, and they currently flying per fr24) due to a huge demand for shipment of e-commerce goods mainly.
This has been demonstrated by some western airlines recently like Virgin Atlantic, Austrian and some more. Im sure there's huge demand still for cargo items and airlines can have limited ops just for this on pax a/c. It's something better than nothing.
 
CaliguyNYC
Posts: 1200
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:28 pm

Guys AI will never get shut down. Makes no economic sense. And most importantly no indian tax payer should want it to be shut. It should be sold at any price and with the least debt and restrictions on employees as possible. This is what happens in the rationale world. Shutting it down destroys value. Literally many of the people who say shut it down also have said in the past that AI shouldn’t be sold without its debt. They would rather lose the jobs, lose all value then see it sold and have a private company retain as many of the jobs and connectivity a possible. So bizzare.
 
airboss787
Posts: 224
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:17 am

pune wrote:
airboss787 wrote:
DeltaMD90 wrote:
You do realize that this virus is not going away and it's not gonna pass over India forever

India can't lock down each time this happens

Now I'm not against the lockdown (I'm for it for other reasons) but the economy is the largest factor you gotta consider second to health.

This is a one-time thing to buy time to be more prepared for when it DOES sweep across the country, because it will. Unless they lock down indefinitely. If that happens, coronavirus will be the least of their worries. When it revisits India hopefully we are all prepared...


Like you said, health is first and second is economy. If health is failing there is no economy. If no one is out spreading it and the infected are also contained, then the spread will reduce and it will help lockdown the virus.

I agree this is a great initiative and better now than when it is like the US or Italy or Spain where it just gets harder to get better. With only 500 cases, it is still not out of control.


Missing the point, we need to carry out those tests. Just quarantine is one measure. Dunno if you read the buzzfeed article

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... ng-iceland

that is the only way

and India's preparations are far far short see -

https://scroll.in/pulse/957025/explaine ... r-covid-19

https://www.newslaundry.com/2020/03/23/ ... -that-away

As far as airlines are concerned, some could turn their aircraft into temporary cargo airplanes like I was reading a day or two ago. Is there enough demand for cargo planes is an open question for which there are no straight answers.

At least one or two airports should be notified as having quarantine facilities and medical facilities but haven't read any news as of such. We still seem to be in a reactionary stage rather than being pro-active sadly :(


So what is the point that I missed? I dont see too much difference to what I said compared to what you are saying. I dont understand how and why you would compare Iceland with India. Vast differences in literally everything. Very concentrated population in just a couple of cities to begin with.

That may be true and that is exactly why this needs to be contained before it goes out of control because the country cannot handle a million cases. Hospitals, healthcare professionals, doctors, infrastructure, etc cannot handle too many cases. As long as the number of cases are relatively low, these serious cases can be controlled to a greater extent. So yeah, if it means to let the economy slide a little more but getting this virus out faster is an option, I am all for it.
Star Alliance Gold
 
pune
Posts: 367
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:10 pm

airboss787 wrote:
pune wrote:
airboss787 wrote:

Like you said, health is first and second is economy. If health is failing there is no economy. If no one is out spreading it and the infected are also contained, then the spread will reduce and it will help lockdown the virus.

I agree this is a great initiative and better now than when it is like the US or Italy or Spain where it just gets harder to get better. With only 500 cases, it is still not out of control.


Missing the point, we need to carry out those tests. Just quarantine is one measure. Dunno if you read the buzzfeed article

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardell ... ng-iceland

that is the only way

and India's preparations are far far short see -

https://scroll.in/pulse/957025/explaine ... r-covid-19

https://www.newslaundry.com/2020/03/23/ ... -that-away

As far as airlines are concerned, some could turn their aircraft into temporary cargo airplanes like I was reading a day or two ago. Is there enough demand for cargo planes is an open question for which there are no straight answers.

At least one or two airports should be notified as having quarantine facilities and medical facilities but haven't read any news as of such. We still seem to be in a reactionary stage rather than being pro-active sadly :(


So what is the point that I missed? I dont see too much difference to what I said compared to what you are saying. I dont understand how and why you would compare Iceland with India. Vast differences in literally everything. Very concentrated population in just a couple of cities to begin with.

That may be true and that is exactly why this needs to be contained before it goes out of control because the country cannot handle a million cases. Hospitals, healthcare professionals, doctors, infrastructure, etc cannot handle too many cases. As long as the number of cases are relatively low, these serious cases can be controlled to a greater extent. So yeah, if it means to let the economy slide a little more but getting this virus out faster is an option, I am all for it.


You didn't read the articles I shared and that's why you are saying what you are saying.

But till we don't test we really wouldn't know. And from what I read yesterday, the tests are so expensive, it's INR 4,500/- for the whole shebang or at the very least INR 1,500/-

See https://www.newslaundry.com/2020/03/23/ ... -that-away

- specifically -

"As per government guidelines, the maximum charge for screening test is Rs 1,500. The confirmatory test is Rs 3,000 in private laboratories." - newslaundry

How many poor people can pay that. And these are guidelines, which doesn't mean that people will follow it, they may charge more if they want, not rule but guideline.

This is on 2/3rd of the article. If the Govt. wanted they could have made mandatory prices just as they do for essential medicines and some surgical procedures.

Whether this is deliberate or not really thought through only you can tell.

On top of it, the virus is asymptomatic which means you or I can be a carrier but show no symptoms.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rd-to-stop

If you search for 'asymptomatic coronavirus' you will get lot of results

there is another thing, this thing will come in waves, when it will come, we don't know.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51955931

As far as the economy is concerned, that's another thing altogether, perhaps we can discuss that in the non-aviation thread, where I have shared some links.
 
VTORD
Posts: 713
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:48 pm

avier wrote:

Not entirely true about GoAir. Their debt exposure isn't so much compared to their peers, and they haven't been making hundreds of crores of losses. They either break-even or make marginal to decent profits. They have extremely lean operations and are the only one to have truly stuck to a simplified fleet and operations. And regarding their promoters, they are big industrialists and have one of the oldest company in the country. Their other industries are extremely profitable too. I wonder if that could act as a cushion for their aviation business, similar like the TATA's and their aviation ventures.

Thanks for the clarification on GoAir. Am well aware of the Wadias but somehow I do recall reading about them being in the loss to 3 figures so I quoted that on my post.



avier wrote:
Air India should most likely shutdown, despite the emotional sentiments people have towards their rescue ops. After all they get paid by the govt for those ops, and they ain't doing some charity out of their service. They act more like a charter company in times of crisis. I'm sure other airlines could play that role too when they will be paid well by the govt for such ops.

What I cannot understand is why people who can afford to travel abroad have to be evacuated at GoI cost but we can't run free flights for migrant labor stuck away from home domestically.
 
avier
Posts: 1078
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:21 pm

VTORD wrote:
What I cannot understand is why people who can afford to travel abroad have to be evacuated at GoI cost but we can't run free flights for migrant labor stuck away from home domestically.

That's exactly the point I just made on the Non-Av thread (Coronovirus India) but some seem to disagree with my point and believe the govt. has to bear the burden of that. I don't understand why.
 
pune
Posts: 367
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:18 am

Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:30 pm

VTORD wrote:

Thanks for the clarification on GoAir. Am well aware of the Wadias but somehow I do recall reading about them being in the loss to 3 figures so I quoted that on my post.


Today there was news that GoAir will not sack the employees but will also not pay their salaries. Now it will be tough going for the employees, hopefully some of them have their nest eggs and don't have any big loans, otherwise it will be tough for them. How the moratorium will work out is whole another issue, we can talk of that later. For now, I do hope that both the carrier and the employees survive this otherwise as passengers we would have lot of problems as well as the economy.

VTORD wrote:

What I cannot understand is why people who can afford to travel abroad have to be evacuated at GoI cost but we can't run free flights for migrant labor stuck away from home domestically.


It probably will be much cheaper for the Govt. to run buses than to run the airports i.e. if they really want to. The problem would be how to get to the airport which as many of us have experienced in the best of times it's an ordeal. I usually start from home 3-4 hours if I have to catch a flight at Lohegaon airport and I'm only 15 odd kms. from the airport. Those who live longer distances have probably much more issues to deal with. I do hope that there are special buses and trains so that these people can be near and dear ones. If nothing else, they will have some sort of help near the villages rather than here where nobody is gonna look after them. Nobody can.

Now I don't know how people will see this but do people know about innerchief.com . See https://www.innerchef.com/ Now because of lockdown their delivery boys have been trashed as they were delivering food. Now, while me and my family are ok, but say if they were ill or I didn't know how to cook, then I would rely on services like these. We want people to stay indoors but not give services at their door-step. Shouldn't food-delivery be part of essential services ? While this is very much a middle-class question but guess it applies to all. Because this is not just for the food delivery truck but also the whole supply chain behind it. The Govt. needs to look into this. I haven't heard anything on that front as of yet .

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 729_1.html

This is still an issue and nobody seems to have any solutions for this. This will wreck both urban and rural economy as well.
 
pune
Posts: 367
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:17 pm

 
VTORD
Posts: 713
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:34 pm

pune wrote:

It probably will be much cheaper for the Govt. to run buses than to run the airports i.e. if they really want to. The problem would be how to get to the airport which as many of us have experienced in the best of times it's an ordeal. I usually start from home 3-4 hours if I have to catch a flight at Lohegaon airport and I'm only 15 odd kms. from the airport. Those who live longer distances have probably much more issues to deal with. I do hope that there are special buses and trains so that these people can be near and dear ones. If nothing else, they will have some sort of help near the villages rather than here where nobody is gonna look after them. Nobody can.

Yes true but I was just using flight as an example. What I am trying to say is there seems to be significant importance on the optics of rescuing people who can afford to pay for it by air using tax payer money but there seems to be no sensitivity towards a similar plight of a lower strata of society domestically.
 
VTORD
Posts: 713
Joined: Sat Dec 22, 2012 9:45 pm

Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:41 pm

pune wrote:

Thanks for sharing. Good read!

This is disturbing:
Who is bribed and why
Most truckers said they had bribed highway police (67%), RTO officials (44%) and local gangs (26%)
 
User avatar
SJL
Posts: 49
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Re: India shuts down aviation completely

Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:25 pm

Aside from any conversation around the crisis, from a purely aviation point of view, this is really sad to see.

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