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CriticalPoint
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:14 am

KFTG wrote:
Some posters in this thread are still in denial about the global situation. It is unlikely any of those "757 routes" are viable for the next couple years.

And yes, they've offered early outs and voluntary leaves but they have NOT offered voluntary early *retirements* or "buy-outs" yet. There is a big difference.


They offered early retirement but it is a very weak offer. I would take it if I was scared of getting sick but that’s about the only reason.

Also it is interesting that the 764’s all went to Roswell.....they are expensive from a crew perspective as they pay top rate at UA. I can see them leaving.
Last edited by CriticalPoint on Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:14 am

KFTG wrote:
Some posters in this thread are still in denial about the global situation. It is unlikely any of those "757 routes" are viable for the next couple years.

And yes, they've offered early outs and voluntary leaves but they have NOT offered voluntary early *retirements* or "buy-outs" yet. There is a big difference.


United hasn’t even decided if they are retiring their 757s yet and you are just here saying they will cut all the routes. Apparently you don’t know UA’s route network.
 
KFTG
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:26 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Apparently you don’t know UA’s route network.

Want to bet? :)
 
KFTG
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:30 am

And yes, they need to offer buyout packages if they truly want to reduce payroll. They keep extending the deadline to apply but aren't sweetening the deals.

Back in 2008, Delta was offering buyout packages to employees with less than 10 years on property.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:01 am

It costs a lot of money up front to offer buyouts. That is the exact opposite of the situation facing the company, long term cash flow will be manageable while short term cash flow is essentially nil. The only way a retirement buyout offer could work would be to pay it in phases. $10k now and the other $100k in a year or so. The company can't be spending millions in buyouts when they are only hemorrhaging money. As a buyout is a long term equation, It does not a thing to improve short term cash flow - in fact it worsens short term cash flow.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:09 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
You can’t just simply “cut” all of UA’s 757 routes. They were served profitably for years and now you think 90% should just be done away with? I think EWR-KEF/SNN/ARN/OPO/LIM could all be sustained with a different aircraft.


You really don't understand how extreme a situation this is for the airlines. United will retire a huge number of planes in any scenario. All those routes could easily be cut in theory. No one on Earth really knows when people will feel comfortable get on a plane, United is struggling for survival here not trying to keep it's market share up. Things have changed so much in a month it's unbelievable for airlines.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:54 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
So if you guys really believe UA is going to cut all their 757 routes would you apply your same strategy to the 767 routes? If so it wouldn’t even be worth calling EWR a hub anymore.


Without B757s & B767s, EWR is still larger than IAD, SFO, & LAX
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Nicknuzzii
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:22 am

Midwestindy wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
So if you guys really believe UA is going to cut all their 757 routes would you apply your same strategy to the 767 routes? If so it wouldn’t even be worth calling EWR a hub anymore.


Without B757s & B767s, EWR is still larger than IAD, SFO, & LAX


While obviously EWR would still be a hub for UA in the future this isn’t the point I’m trying to convey in this. 757s and 767s are the backbone of EWR’s transatlantic routes and for UA to just gut them all as others are saying is never going to happen. Maybe if it is just for one season but down the line these routes will be served.
 
codc10
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:34 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
So if you guys really believe UA is going to cut all their 757 routes would you apply your same strategy to the 767 routes? If so it wouldn’t even be worth calling EWR a hub anymore.


Without B757s & B767s, EWR is still larger than IAD, SFO, & LAX


While obviously EWR would still be a hub for UA in the future this isn’t the point I’m trying to convey in this. 757s and 767s are the backbone of EWR’s transatlantic routes and for UA to just gut them all as others are saying is never going to happen. Maybe if it is just for one season but down the line these routes will be served.


Frequency consolidation, market suspension/exits, no new service in the short term. “Down the line”, as you say, there will be more 787s and A321s. But it’ll take quite a bit of time for UAL to get back to 2019 levels.
 
jagraham
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:09 pm

codc10 wrote:
jagraham wrote:
United1 wrote:
Looks like none of the 77Ws are stored right now. The ship number is followed by what the aircraft did last all of which was within the last 24 hours except for aircraft in MTC of course.

31 FRA-IAH Cargo
32 IAH-GRU Passenger
33 ORD-FRA Cargo
34 FRA-EWR Cargo
35 EWR-TLV Passenger
36 HKG MTC
37 IAH - scheduled to fly IAH-GRU tomorrow in passenger service
38 ORD-PVG Cargo (was canceled tonight due to MTC but the aircraft is not stored)
39 Just came out of MTC in XMN
40 LAX-HKG Cargo
41 SYD-SFO Passenger
42 EWR-ORD Cargo
43 HKG MTC
44 FRA-SFO Passenger
45 ORD-PVG Cargo
46 SFO-GUM Not sure if this is going in for MTC in China or is flying cargo
47 EWR-SFO Passenger
48 HKG-LAX Cargo or
49 EWR-IAH Passenger
50 GRU-EWR Passenger
51 AMS-EWR Cargo
52 SFO Induction



Post #38 is significant. 22 77Ws and they are all flying except for maintenance and one induction. 9 cargo only flights. 3 domestic flights (which can't be for the pax)

UA has plenty of 77Es. The only reason to fly all the available 77Ws is because cargo needs it, and the rates make it worthwhile.

We need to figure out where the cargo is going if we want to make accurate predictions on the future UA fleet.


New metal with big payments due. Same with the 787-10s. Not to mention the fact that they can haul around a lot of freight. Fully depreciated 77Es and 767s are much easier to park, for however long.


In normal times, the paid-for aircraft would be parked. But these are not normal times. On a trip basis, the 77Es are cheaper to operate. 763s even cheaper still. Parking 77Ws would save all the fuel and crew costs of the bigger plane regardless of whether or not notes were due. But at this time, UA needs to take in any profitable revenue it can, and apparently there is a lot of cargo to fly around. And as you noted, the 77Ws and 78Js have the greatest cargo capacity.
 
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CALTECH
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:43 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
So if you guys really believe UA is going to cut all their 757 routes would you apply your same strategy to the 767 routes? If so it wouldn’t even be worth calling EWR a hub anymore.


Without B757s & B767s, EWR is still larger than IAD, SFO, & LAX


While obviously EWR would still be a hub for UA in the future this isn’t the point I’m trying to convey in this. 757s and 767s are the backbone of EWR’s transatlantic routes and for UA to just gut them all as others are saying is never going to happen. Maybe if it is just for one season but down the line these routes will be served.


The 757s and 767s will be some of the first to go. It maybe that they never fly again in passenger revenue service at the airline.It really depends on how much air travel comes back. September 11th pretty much saw the great Boeing 727 retired from service.
American and Delta say they will retire the 757 767 also,,,,,,
All the terminals and concourses are empty.
There might be more aircraft in the air from other airlines, but they are flying empty and bleeding money.
You are here.
 
CALMSP
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:48 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
You can’t just simply “cut” all of UA’s 757 routes. They were served profitably for years and now you think 90% should just be done away with? I think EWR-KEF/SNN/ARN/OPO/LIM could all be sustained with a different aircraft.


I don't think people are saying cutting destinations (although there will be a few), but cutting routes and shifting traffic through EWR. Gone will be the likes of ORD-DUB/EDI, IAD-MAN/EDI/DUB/MAD, EWR-LIM/OPO/KEF.

On top of the 757 route cancellations, 763/777 routes gone will probably be IAD-BCN/FCO/TLV, EWR-CPT/NCE/VCE/PRG/PMO/NAP, ORD-FCO/ZRH, SFO-AMS/DUB/ZRH/CDG/TLV/DEL


All of these are sad, it was so great to see some great destinations connected on UA metal over the last year and this coming year (this month even).
 
NYCAAer
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:06 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
AA chose ORD and DFW as their transatlantic gateways for the summer cancelling almost all routes from MIA/JFK/PHL/CLT, is United going to move ahead with ORD/EWR, IAD/EWR, or even just break down all three a little bit?


What routes is AA flying out of ORD to Europe? The entire European operation out of ORD is seasonal, only LHR is year round. There will be nothing to Europe from ORD this year, not even CDG.
 
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chepos
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:13 pm

NYCAAer wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
AA chose ORD and DFW as their transatlantic gateways for the summer cancelling almost all routes from MIA/JFK/PHL/CLT, is United going to move ahead with ORD/EWR, IAD/EWR, or even just break down all three a little bit?


What routes is AA flying out of ORD to Europe? The entire European operation out of ORD is seasonal, only LHR is year round. There will be nothing to Europe from ORD this year, not even CDG.

Based on the announcement yesterday, which of course is subject to change. It will be LHR/DUB/ATH/BCN, as of now first three supposed to resume in June, BCN in July.


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jayunited
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:38 pm

chepos wrote:
NYCAAer wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
AA chose ORD and DFW as their transatlantic gateways for the summer cancelling almost all routes from MIA/JFK/PHL/CLT, is United going to move ahead with ORD/EWR, IAD/EWR, or even just break down all three a little bit?


What routes is AA flying out of ORD to Europe? The entire European operation out of ORD is seasonal, only LHR is year round. There will be nothing to Europe from ORD this year, not even CDG.

Based on the announcement yesterday, which of course is subject to change. It will be LHR/DUB/ATH/BCN, as of now first three supposed to resume in June, BCN in July.


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I think both ATH and BCN are more wishful thinking than anything. Both of those destinations are huge tourist destinations and Barcelona in recent years has seen the number of tourist explode thank in no small part to their growing cruise industry. The number of cruises that leave out of Barcelona over the past 5 years has more than doubled and the number of passengers was off the charts because most cruise lines were sending in their mega cruise ships. I know this an aviation enthusiast site but if people follow the cruise industry as well they will notice cruise lines are now starting to talk about putting their ships into short and long term storage because that industry like the airline industry is now looking at a long term recovery instead of a short term recovery. Reason is having an empty cruise ship sit anchored off the coast is still costing the cruise line anywhere from $750,000 dollars per month for their smallest oldest ships to over $3 million a month for these mega ships.

With Spain being a hotspot right now and the damage done to the cruise industry I don't see BCN happening, and I would say the same applies to UA's BCN flights because the busy tourist season ends at the end of October. For the limited number of US passengers who may still head over to Barcelona it might be better for AA to funnel those passengers through LHR onto BA, and UA to funnel those passenger through FRA and onto LH.

This coming summer airlines are going to have to be smart and fly TATL international routes they know they will be able to make money on and allow their JV partners to pick up the remaining slack through their hubs at LHR, CDG, AMS, FRA, MUC. The longer this pandemic goes on it become less and less like US carriers will be able to salvage secondary european cities, and the same is true for European carriers. If May comes around and the US and Europe has not hit what experts call the peak wave, at lot of secondary cities here in the US may loose their nonstop access to Europe, because European carriers will have to make the same difficult choice and allow their JV partners here to funnel passengers into the major hubs. One thing I think everyone knows is come summer 2020 airplanes will not be packed like they were in years past. A lot of secondary cities may loose their TATL and U.S. nonstop flights for 2020 so that flights to major hubs can survive.
 
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chepos
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:50 pm

jayunited wrote:
chepos wrote:
NYCAAer wrote:

What routes is AA flying out of ORD to Europe? The entire European operation out of ORD is seasonal, only LHR is year round. There will be nothing to Europe from ORD this year, not even CDG.

Based on the announcement yesterday, which of course is subject to change. It will be LHR/DUB/ATH/BCN, as of now first three supposed to resume in June, BCN in July.


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I think both ATH and BCN are more wishful thinking than anything. Both of those destinations are huge tourist destinations and Barcelona in recent years has seen the number of tourist explode thank in no small part to their growing cruise industry. The number of cruises that leave out of Barcelona over the past 5 years has more than doubled and the number of passengers was off the charts because most cruise lines were sending in their mega cruise ships. I know this an aviation enthusiast site but if people follow the cruise industry as well they will notice cruise lines are now starting to talk about putting their ships into short and long term storage because that industry like the airline industry is now looking at a long term recovery instead of a short term recovery. Reason is having an empty cruise ship sit anchored off the coast is still costing the cruise line anywhere from $750,000 dollars per month for their smallest oldest ships to over $3 million a month for these mega ships.

With Spain being a hotspot right now and the damage done to the cruise industry I don't see BCN happening, and I would say the same applies to UA's BCN flights because the busy tourist season ends at the end of October. For the limited number of US passengers who may still head over to Barcelona it might be better for AA to funnel those passengers through LHR onto BA, and UA to funnel those passenger through FRA and onto LH.

This coming summer airlines are going to have to be smart and fly TATL international routes they know they will be able to make money on and allow their JV partners to pick up the remaining slack through their hubs at LHR, CDG, AMS, FRA, MUC. The longer this pandemic goes on it become less and less like US carriers will be able to salvage secondary european cities, and the same is true for European carriers. If May comes around and the US and Europe has not hit what experts call the peak wave, at lot of secondary cities here in the US may loose their nonstop access to Europe, because European carriers will have to make the same difficult choice and allow their JV partners here to funnel passengers into the major hubs. One thing I think everyone knows is come summer 2020 airplanes will not be packed like they were in years past. A lot of secondary cities may loose their TATL and U.S. nonstop flights for 2020 so that flights to major hubs can survive.

I’m just going off what was announced by AA yesterday. Hence why I said subject to change.


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LAXdude1023
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:40 pm

Here is what I could realistically see over the next year for UA: a retrenchment into hub specialties.

That means that EWR would handle all non-FRA/LON/MUC Europe with maybe a couple of other destinations from IAD and ORD. I could see IAH and SFO just being LHR and FRA on UA metal.

That means SFO would handle all non-TYO traffic. Maybe EWR holds onto another Asia route as well.

That means IAH handles all Latin America traffic. Maybe GRU and MEX are maintained from other hubs as well.

That means DEN and ORD (maybe IAH to a lesser degree) become the domestic strongholds. I can see EWR, IAD, SFO, and LAX losing domestic flights. IAH some too as well.
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AVENSAB727
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:50 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Here is what I could realistically see over the next year for UA: a retrenchment into hub specialties.

That means that EWR would handle all non-FRA/LON/MUC Europe with maybe a couple of other destinations from IAD and ORD. I could see IAH and SFO just being LHR and FRA on UA metal.

That means SFO would handle all non-TYO traffic. Maybe EWR holds onto another Asia route as well.

That means IAH handles all Latin America traffic. Maybe GRU and MEX are maintained from other hubs as well.

That means DEN and ORD (maybe IAH to a lesser degree) become the domestic strongholds. I can see EWR, IAD, SFO, and LAX losing domestic flights. IAH some too as well.

What happens to the Caribbean traffic?
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LAXdude1023
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:18 pm

AVENSAB727 wrote:
LAXdude1023 wrote:
Here is what I could realistically see over the next year for UA: a retrenchment into hub specialties.

That means that EWR would handle all non-FRA/LON/MUC Europe with maybe a couple of other destinations from IAD and ORD. I could see IAH and SFO just being LHR and FRA on UA metal.

That means SFO would handle all non-TYO traffic. Maybe EWR holds onto another Asia route as well.

That means IAH handles all Latin America traffic. Maybe GRU and MEX are maintained from other hubs as well.

That means DEN and ORD (maybe IAH to a lesser degree) become the domestic strongholds. I can see EWR, IAD, SFO, and LAX losing domestic flights. IAH some too as well.

What happens to the Caribbean traffic?


Other than SJU and IAH-POS, I would imagine it will all be at EWR similar to now. If demand doesnt return, Id see EWR being pretty much the focal. ORD and IAD maybe with some Saturday only.
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jayunited
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:21 pm

AVENSAB727 wrote:
What happens to the Caribbean traffic?


Although UA serves the Caribbean year round our Caribbean operations really ramps up in November and dies down in April or May. As the US heats up the total number of passengers heading to the Caribbean drops.

I'm not sure what is going on at other companies but here at UA a lot of employees have canceled their spring and summer vacations and have rescheduled (or they are now on a waiting list trying to reschedule) their vacations for October, November, December. (UA employees can only carryover 3 unused vacation days all other unused days are paid out.) I'm going to assume at companies all across America people who are fortunate to still be working are probably rescheduling their vacation time as well for later in the years.

I can't predict the future but if the pandemic is over it going to be interesting to see where Americans who want to get out and travel choose to go. In my opinion the Caribbean and Mexico Beaches could be the short term spot Americans choose to flock to.
 
N649DL
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:49 pm

CriticalPoint wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Some posters in this thread are still in denial about the global situation. It is unlikely any of those "757 routes" are viable for the next couple years.

And yes, they've offered early outs and voluntary leaves but they have NOT offered voluntary early *retirements* or "buy-outs" yet. There is a big difference.


They offered early retirement but it is a very weak offer. I would take it if I was scared of getting sick but that’s about the only reason.

Also it is interesting that the 764’s all went to Roswell.....they are expensive from a crew perspective as they pay top rate at UA. I can see them leaving.


Wow. I called that one out about 764 being retired. They're only 16 of them but they're relatively young built between 2000-2002 at CO. I would be sad to see them leave as it's a fun one to fly on with UA or DL.
 
onwFan
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:24 pm

LAXdude1023 wrote:
Here is what I could realistically see over the next year for UA: a retrenchment into hub specialties.

That means that EWR would handle all non-FRA/LON/MUC Europe with maybe a couple of other destinations from IAD and ORD. I could see IAH and SFO just being LHR and FRA on UA metal.

That means SFO would handle all non-TYO traffic. Maybe EWR holds onto another Asia route as well.

That means IAH handles all Latin America traffic. Maybe GRU and MEX are maintained from other hubs as well.

That means DEN and ORD (maybe IAH to a lesser degree) become the domestic strongholds. I can see EWR, IAD, SFO, and LAX losing domestic flights. IAH some too as well.

I think some of that makes sense.. UA has one hell of an impressive international network that is unparalelled - ticking boxes for many important business city pairs between the US and the world. There is ample room for route rationalization without significantly affecting its presence in different continents and I am very interested to see what UA does. Whatever they reduce, they will still have a robust international network.
 
FSDan
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:32 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
You can’t just simply “cut” all of UA’s 757 routes. They were served profitably for years and now you think 90% should just be done away with? I think EWR-KEF/SNN/ARN/OPO/LIM could all be sustained with a different aircraft.


First off, whatever was "served profitably for years" has little bearing now. We had been climbing towards the crest of a demand wave, and we've very suddenly crashed down into a trough. Load factors above 20% are looking great right now.

I take no joy in saying this because EWR is a really cool airport with lots of interesting international routes added recently, but you need to adjust your expectations regarding what is coming. EWR this summer is not going to offer remotely close to the number of flights and destinations that it did last summer - it would be very lucky to get back to 2019 levels in Summer 2021, but even that might be very wishful thinking. It sucks, but it's the reality we're facing. Some international airlines will likely pull out entirely (a la VS). UA will cut routes. For starters, you can probably expect any new route/frequency that UA had announced for this summer, and maybe some of the ones started in Summer 2018, to be cut, as they are low hanging fruit. I'd be very surprised if UA metal visits KEF, OPO, NCE, NAP, PMO, or PRG in 2020.

UA retiring the 752s seems likely, given that they have stated the 757s are first on the chopping block, and given that the chances of UA not retiring any fleet types are approximately 0%. If UA does decide to retire the 752s, they're certainly not going to upgauge anything unless capacity to that destination is drawn down elsewhere (e.g. my example where ORD-EDI and IAD-EDI could be cut while EWR-EDI could be upgauged - a best case scenario). If 767s are also retired, that makes an upgauge even less likely. Any route that is unique to EWR and is served by a 752 is vulnerable to being cut, plain and simple. UA won't have the right aircraft to fill those gaps back in until the 321XLR arrives. At that point, I certainly think long/thin transatlantic and South America routes are back on the table, as stated at the end of my original post. I don't expect UA will fly the MAXs on transatlantic routes, as they aren't configured for international service.

If you still have doubts about UA cutting routes, look at what AA just announced for PHL, their primary transatlantic gateway (through July, August, and September, AA's only TATL routes from PHL will be LHR, MAD, and ZRH). I don't expect UA will cut EWR back to that level as there is much more O&D traffic, but to be honest I think the only truly safe long haul destinations through this summer are GRU, DUB, LHR, CDG, BRU, AMS, FRA, MUC, ZRH, TLV, and NRT or HND. Anything beyond that will be gravy.
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tphuang
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:06 pm

FSDan wrote:
If you still have doubts about UA cutting routes, look at what AA just announced for PHL, their primary transatlantic gateway (through July, August, and September, AA's only TATL routes from PHL will be LHR, MAD, and ZRH). I don't expect UA will cut EWR back to that level as there is much more O&D traffic, but to be honest I think the only truly safe long haul destinations through this summer are GRU, DUB, LHR, CDG, BRU, AMS, FRA, MUC, ZRH, TLV, and NRT or HND. Anything beyond that will be gravy.

I actually think AA's PHL cut so far might be conservative and UA will cut at least that much. Remember, NY/NJ area is getting hit much worse than other parts of the country. People are going to be scared to travel for a while. UA can fly more but they will likely lose money on every flight. Depending on their cash situation, that will dictate how much each airlines fly.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:14 pm

tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:
If you still have doubts about UA cutting routes, look at what AA just announced for PHL, their primary transatlantic gateway (through July, August, and September, AA's only TATL routes from PHL will be LHR, MAD, and ZRH). I don't expect UA will cut EWR back to that level as there is much more O&D traffic, but to be honest I think the only truly safe long haul destinations through this summer are GRU, DUB, LHR, CDG, BRU, AMS, FRA, MUC, ZRH, TLV, and NRT or HND. Anything beyond that will be gravy.

I actually think AA's PHL cut so far might be conservative and UA will cut at least that much. Remember, NY/NJ area is getting hit much worse than other parts of the country. People are going to be scared to travel for a while. UA can fly more but they will likely lose money on every flight. Depending on their cash situation, that will dictate how much each airlines fly.


I’d only add MAD & LIS to this list.
 
VC10er
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:31 pm

I typically do MANY EWR- SFO/LAX and I do my best to take the 787-10 upfront.
Despite the small spruce ups of some 752’s, it’s ALL ABOUT the privacy and aisle access of the Polaris seat. Although a redeye back to EWR I’m fine on the 752.
Selfishly, I’m hoping for more 78X’s on transcontinental routes even at the loss of some frequencies, AND getting the High J 763’s back to LHR.
Does this tragic crisis threaten the A321XLR’s?
737MAX’s?
Are the A350’s pushed back again?

I feel so sad about this, UA was really changing and transforming. SO MUCH MONEY INVESTED!
I pray for everyone in AVIATION, every AIRLINE, every person and doing the millions of things every day to keep ops going. I feel sad for all the metal birds sitting on the ground and not doing what they love to do: FLY!
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.
 
jayunited
Posts: 2855
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:
If you still have doubts about UA cutting routes, look at what AA just announced for PHL, their primary transatlantic gateway (through July, August, and September, AA's only TATL routes from PHL will be LHR, MAD, and ZRH). I don't expect UA will cut EWR back to that level as there is much more O&D traffic, but to be honest I think the only truly safe long haul destinations through this summer are GRU, DUB, LHR, CDG, BRU, AMS, FRA, MUC, ZRH, TLV, and NRT or HND. Anything beyond that will be gravy.


I actually think AA's PHL cut so far might be conservative and UA will cut at least that much. Remember, NY/NJ area is getting hit much worse than other parts of the country. People are going to be scared to travel for a while. UA can fly more but they will likely lose money on every flight. Depending on their cash situation, that will dictate how much each airlines fly.


Tphuang I don't think UA will fly more especially out of EWR. Judging from yesterdays virtual town hall it seems like Kirby and his team are working right now to try and find the right balance of flying once things open up. Kirby isn't looking to loose more money than necessary by flying routes and flights that are not needed at this time. While AA is temporarily gutting most their PHL TATL flying for summer 2020, it will be interesting to see what UA does at EWR. I think UA out of EWR will keep flying to the TATL STAR hubs, in addition to LHR, TLV, CDG, and HND. If O&D traffic is severely impacted UA might even suspend AMS and GRU out of EWR until early 2021 and allow IAD or ORD to run those routes until New York recovers.
 
jetmatt777
Posts: 4290
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2005 2:16 am

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:00 pm

VC10er wrote:
I typically do MANY EWR- SFO/LAX and I do my best to take the 787-10 upfront.
Despite the small spruce ups of some 752’s, it’s ALL ABOUT the privacy and aisle access of the Polaris seat. Although a redeye back to EWR I’m fine on the 752.
Selfishly, I’m hoping for more 78X’s on transcontinental routes even at the loss of some frequencies, AND getting the High J 763’s back to LHR.
Does this tragic crisis threaten the A321XLR’s?
737MAX’s?
Are the A350’s pushed back again?

I feel so sad about this, UA was really changing and transforming. SO MUCH MONEY INVESTED!
I pray for everyone in AVIATION, every AIRLINE, every person and doing the millions of things every day to keep ops going. I feel sad for all the metal birds sitting on the ground and not doing what they love to do: FLY!


Glad to see your post. I remember you mentioning you live and work in NYC and was concerned because I haven't seen a post from you in a while.
 
MIflyer12
Topic Author
Posts: 8027
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:07 pm

Reuters confirmed that UA got in a payroll grant application under today's expedited deadline.

American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O), United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL.O), Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) and JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU.O) each said they had submitted grant applications but did not disclose how much they requested or what they offered in return for funds.

Treasury set a 5 p.m. EDT (2100 GMT) Friday deadline to expedite the grants. There is a second final deadline on April 27.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... 1L2AL?il=0
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4975
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:10 pm

FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
FSDan wrote:

On the DL version of this thread people were suggesting that MSP or DTW would be de-hubbed. The discussion here is relatively tame by comparison! Although I concede that the few comments regarding UA dropping IAH as a hub are equally ridiculous...

Dropping hard to see, but they will definitely cut some back for a while. That should be obvious.


Agreed - with oil prices down IAH will see some cuts. I was referring mostly to the comment that UA might cut Houston because they're #3 in Latin America and therefore it's not worth keeping anymore. I'll go ahead and predict that IAH will remain UA's Latin America hub for years to come.

I would tend to agree because UA may not get larger in Florida for some time to come after this COVID mess is cleared up.
they can feed south American flights via IAH from IAD/EWR/ORD/DEN. and SFO/DEN via LAX as well.
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4975
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:19 pm

hohd wrote:
DEN is also vulnerable. Southwest will not cut DEN much and Frontier has their niche there. So that leaves UA which has multiple hubs. DEN can only accommodate so many carriers and flights and as business travel goes down (for at least a year or two) it will not be able to hold on many of UA flights.

Southwest as much as they might like to? Can't run UAL out of DEN and F9? YMBKM! They're begging for gates! they'll be lucky to use the ones they get allocated!
They could have had as much as they wanted but they didn't commit to DEN the way UA and WN did. They are and will always be also-Ran Airlines! neither winning nor losing, But they also Ran in the race. Hell! Id expect to see Delta, Alaska, or Jet Blue move into DEN in a big way before I'd expect to see F9 step up to the Big Leagues.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6164
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:26 pm

strfyr51 wrote:
FSDan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Dropping hard to see, but they will definitely cut some back for a while. That should be obvious.


Agreed - with oil prices down IAH will see some cuts. I was referring mostly to the comment that UA might cut Houston because they're #3 in Latin America and therefore it's not worth keeping anymore. I'll go ahead and predict that IAH will remain UA's Latin America hub for years to come.

I would tend to agree because UA may not get larger in Florida for some time to come after this COVID mess is cleared up.
they can feed south American flights via IAH from IAD/EWR/ORD/DEN. and SFO/DEN via LAX as well.


The UA Hub in Florida thing again? It wasn’t going to happen before this mess, no way it happens In the years afterwards either.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
jayunited
Posts: 2855
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:45 am

strfyr51 wrote:
hohd wrote:
DEN is also vulnerable. Southwest will not cut DEN much and Frontier has their niche there. So that leaves UA which has multiple hubs. DEN can only accommodate so many carriers and flights and as business travel goes down (for at least a year or two) it will not be able to hold on many of UA flights.

Southwest as much as they might like to? Can't run UAL out of DEN and F9? YMBKM! They're begging for gates! they'll be lucky to use the ones they get allocated!
They could have had as much as they wanted but they didn't commit to DEN the way UA and WN did. They are and will always be also-Ran Airlines! neither winning nor losing, But they also Ran in the race. Hell! Id expect to see Delta, Alaska, or Jet Blue move into DEN in a big way before I'd expect to see F9 step up to the Big Leagues.


I think strfyr51 is correct, WN is not going to run UA out of DEN because WN is in the same position the US3 are in all of these airlines will emerge smaller. So for summer 2020 it going to be more like a game of chess instead of checkers. I've said this multiple times in multiple threads airlines are going to have be smart and extremely strategic, as they choose where to cut and how much to cut. Both UA and WN will cut DEN but the question is by how much. From what I know about UA I think for summer 2020 UA will take a calculated risk and there will be deeper domestic cuts at IAH and ORD than DEN.

No one is coming into IAH not with oil at at such a low price, UA can probably make deeper cuts at IAH and still fend off competition domestically. Here in Chicago at ORD domestically I think UA will make a caculated decision to trim ORD's domestic schedule more than people might think. I believe UA will do this to save DEN because I think AA domestically will make strategic domestic cuts to trim ORD as well to push more passengers through DFW because both of these airlines are looking at gate availability and between the two of them they have ORD on virtual lock down. If we are talking about gate space there isn't much harm a competitor can do to either airline at ORD because there are no available gates. Therefore domestically AA can funnel more domestic passengers through DFW and fill up their aircraft out their DFW hub and slightly trim ORD (but not to much because they don't want to give UA an edge either).

While UA has a solid foundation at all three of these hubs (ORD, IAH, DEN) I think once the recovery begins it will be a lot easier for UA to gain back the ground at both ORD and IAH than at DEN. For UA this summer DEN will NOT see 500 flights like we did in 2019 but I agree with strfyr51, UA will not so easily give up ground at DEN like we did during and after the bankruptcy and post merger years.
 
codc10
Posts: 2864
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:15 am

While the NY/NJ area got hit early with the virus, it will also peak and subside faster than other metro areas, meaning commerce could well resume here sooner than elsewhere (aside from the West Coast). I do not foresee a V-shaped recovery, but it's not out of the question that United could see a faster return to international service with EWR/SFO hubs.

Sadly the train is pulling out of the station on the Summer 2020 leisure cohort, for which the US3 had big, big plans. Between job losses/pay cuts (less discretionary income) and what will likely be an avoidance of Italy/Spain, and elsewhere in Europe, during 3Q, advance bookings just aren't in the cards. I would only expect comprehensive service to business markets for the summer peak, which will be extraordinarily painful for airlines.
 
dfdubflyer
Posts: 190
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:01 am

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:03 am

Is anyone bullish on LAX and/or IAD if the “smaller carrier emerges” theory continues? I know those two topics have been beaten to death over the years but the hub consolidation theory many are discussing seems to leave those two without a clear purpose beyond an AA @ JFK tailored presence.
 
MIflyer12
Topic Author
Posts: 8027
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:46 pm

codc10 wrote:
While the NY/NJ area got hit early with the virus, it will also peak and subside faster than other metro areas, meaning commerce could well resume here sooner than elsewhere (aside from the West Coast). I do not foresee a V-shaped recovery, but it's not out of the question that United could see a faster return to international service with EWR/SFO hubs.

Sadly the train is pulling out of the station on the Summer 2020 leisure cohort, for which the US3 had big, big plans. Between job losses/pay cuts (less discretionary income) and what will likely be an avoidance of Italy/Spain, and elsewhere in Europe, during 3Q, advance bookings just aren't in the cards. I would only expect comprehensive service to business markets for the summer peak, which will be extraordinarily painful for airlines.


United has said it's planning for 4Q2020 to have revenues off 30% from 4Q2019. Job protections from the CARES act end 9/30/2020. 10/1/20 is going to be ugly.
 
Aceskywalker
Posts: 147
Joined: Sat Nov 17, 2018 4:55 am

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:46 pm

dfdubflyer wrote:
Is anyone bullish on LAX and/or IAD if the “smaller carrier emerges” theory continues? I know those two topics have been beaten to death over the years but the hub consolidation theory many are discussing seems to leave those two without a clear purpose beyond an AA @ JFK tailored presence.


LAX is arguably under threat of losing hub status with ALL of the US3. Especially UA - just funnel passengers up to San Francisco for flights to Asia/Pacific.
 
MIflyer12
Topic Author
Posts: 8027
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:55 pm

LAX is the biggest single O&D airport in the country, and the biggest U.S. TPAC gateway. It's the country's 2nd busiest by international passenger count. Four of the top 10 USA-intl routes are out of LAX. (JFK has two.) All of the Big 3 - and WN - are going to shrink short-term. Listen to Arnold - 'I'll be back.'
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1147
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:07 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
LAX is the biggest single O&D airport in the country, and the biggest U.S. TPAC gateway. It's the country's 2nd busiest by international passenger count. Four of the top 10 USA-intl routes are out of LAX. (JFK has two.) All of the Big 3 - and WN - are going to shrink short-term. Listen to Arnold - 'I'll be back.'


While you keep you touting LAX for being so large I feel like your data is quite skewed mostly because EWR steals a lot of traffic from JFK.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6164
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:17 pm

jayunited wrote:
strfyr51 wrote:
hohd wrote:
DEN is also vulnerable. Southwest will not cut DEN much and Frontier has their niche there. So that leaves UA which has multiple hubs. DEN can only accommodate so many carriers and flights and as business travel goes down (for at least a year or two) it will not be able to hold on many of UA flights.

Southwest as much as they might like to? Can't run UAL out of DEN and F9? YMBKM! They're begging for gates! they'll be lucky to use the ones they get allocated!
They could have had as much as they wanted but they didn't commit to DEN the way UA and WN did. They are and will always be also-Ran Airlines! neither winning nor losing, But they also Ran in the race. Hell! Id expect to see Delta, Alaska, or Jet Blue move into DEN in a big way before I'd expect to see F9 step up to the Big Leagues.


I think strfyr51 is correct, WN is not going to run UA out of DEN because WN is in the same position the US3 are in all of these airlines will emerge smaller. So for summer 2020 it going to be more like a game of chess instead of checkers. I've said this multiple times in multiple threads airlines are going to have be smart and extremely strategic, as they choose where to cut and how much to cut. Both UA and WN will cut DEN but the question is by how much. From what I know about UA I think for summer 2020 UA will take a calculated risk and there will be deeper domestic cuts at IAH and ORD than DEN.

No one is coming into IAH not with oil at at such a low price, UA can probably make deeper cuts at IAH and still fend off competition domestically. Here in Chicago at ORD domestically I think UA will make a caculated decision to trim ORD's domestic schedule more than people might think. I believe UA will do this to save DEN because I think AA domestically will make strategic domestic cuts to trim ORD as well to push more passengers through DFW because both of these airlines are looking at gate availability and between the two of them they have ORD on virtual lock down. If we are talking about gate space there isn't much harm a competitor can do to either airline at ORD because there are no available gates. Therefore domestically AA can funnel more domestic passengers through DFW and fill up their aircraft out their DFW hub and slightly trim ORD (but not to much because they don't want to give UA an edge either).

While UA has a solid foundation at all three of these hubs (ORD, IAH, DEN) I think once the recovery begins it will be a lot easier for UA to gain back the ground at both ORD and IAH than at DEN. For UA this summer DEN will NOT see 500 flights like we did in 2019 but I agree with strfyr51, UA will not so easily give up ground at DEN like we did during and after the bankruptcy and post merger years.


I think that makes sense. I expect IAH to lose domestic ground to ORD and DEN. But I expect other hubs in the UA network (mainly EWR) to lose ground in Central and South America to IAH. MEX and GRU may be exceptions because they are so big.

It will be all about retrenching to the hubs core strengths for a while. EWR for Europe, DEN and ORD for domestic, IAH, for Latin America, SFO for Asia, etc.
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BRING BACK THE PAYWALL!!!!
 
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janders
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:57 pm

LAX is not going anywhere. Its a huge market, the second largest in the U.S and simply must be served adequately by anyone if they are going to be a truly large domestic carrier, be it AA, DL, UA.

As DL marketing head mentioned during their LAX build-up, its not just about trying to capture a portion of LA population, but even more importantly, LA is a key destination that existing DL customers need to visit so it's was vitaly important DL gives them the broad schedule and links to accomplish such or risk losing other business to competitors.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
jayunited
Posts: 2855
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:29 pm

dfdubflyer wrote:
Is anyone bullish on LAX and/or IAD if the “smaller carrier emerges” theory continues? I know those two topics have been beaten to death over the years but the hub consolidation theory many are discussing seems to leave those two without a clear purpose beyond an AA @ JFK tailored presence.


For UA at IAD they pretty much know they have IAD and can do what they want at IAD without much consequence. Just look at how IAD has lagged for so many years, other airlines have tried to come in and they've all left or scaled down their operations and UA had nothing to do with with airlines scaling back or running airlines out of IAD.

For UA on the West Coast we have SFO and LAX. So while Kirbys team is playing a game of chess with WN at DEN, they also are playing that same game at SFO with AS. But on the flip side of the coin AS has to defend against DL at SEA. Which hub is more important to AS, the answer could be SEA. If it is UA could potentially make larger cuts at SFO without giving much ground to AS at SFO, to spare LAX on the hopes AS focuses their attention on DL at SEA.

In the past airlines cut routes and hubs with no real thought on the impact it will have once things got better. From what I'm hearing that is not the case this time at least for UA. UA will make cuts but they want to be smart and make deeper cuts at hubs and line stations where they can quickly recover once this crisis is behind us. Los Angeles is a immensely important market and a strong O&D market one thing UA has learned and even Kirby in the past has acknowledged if you give up ground at LAX with no real recovery plan in place it is nearly impossible to regain what you've given up.

Personally I out West I would expect Delta to cut more deeply at SLC first (no one is going to challenge DL at SLC), then SEA, then look at LAX. American I would expect them to cut more deeply at PHX before they even look at LAX. United like I stated SFO deeper cuts first, then LAX. Southwest would probably cut other hubs out West first and save LAX for last.

To be honest the one airline that can't get it wrong at LAX is United Airlines, I think if AA, DL and WN take a misstep at LAX they will loose marketshare but still be okay. However UA which is the smallest airline at LAX of the airlines mentioned we can't afford to make a mistake at LAX. Just look at the ground we given up since bankruptcy and more importantly the merger as much as Kirby wanted to UA still has not be able to regain much of that marketshare we lost pre-COVID-19. If there are 2 things that grinds Kirbys gears since joining UA it was UA's decision to leave JFK and UA's decision to give away so much marketshare at LAX. He can't do anything about JFK that ship has sailed but he is not about to give away LAX just because of COVID-19.
 
tphuang
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:39 pm

jayunited wrote:
dfdubflyer wrote:
Is anyone bullish on LAX and/or IAD if the “smaller carrier emerges” theory continues? I know those two topics have been beaten to death over the years but the hub consolidation theory many are discussing seems to leave those two without a clear purpose beyond an AA @ JFK tailored presence.


For UA at IAD they pretty much know they have IAD and can do what they want at IAD without much consequence. Just look at how IAD has lagged for so many years, other airlines have tried to come in and they've all left or scaled down their operations and UA had nothing to do with with airlines scaling back or running airlines out of IAD.

For UA on the West Coast we have SFO and LAX. So while Kirbys team is playing a game of chess with WN at DEN, they also are playing that same game at SFO with AS. But on the flip side of the coin AS has to defend against DL at SEA. Which hub is more important to AS, the answer could be SEA. If it is UA could potentially make larger cuts at SFO without giving much ground to AS at SFO, to spare LAX on the hopes AS focuses their attention on DL at SEA.

In the past airlines cut routes and hubs with no real thought on the impact it will have once things got better. From what I'm hearing that is not the case this time at least for UA. UA will make cuts but they want to be smart and make deeper cuts at hubs and line stations where they can quickly recover once this crisis is behind us. Los Angeles is a immensely important market and a strong O&D market one thing UA has learned and even Kirby in the past has acknowledged if you give up ground at LAX with no real recovery plan in place it is nearly impossible to regain what you've given up.

Personally I out West I would expect Delta to cut more deeply at SLC first (no one is going to challenge DL at SLC), then SEA, then look at LAX. American I would expect them to cut more deeply at PHX before they even look at LAX. United like I stated SFO deeper cuts first, then LAX. Southwest would probably cut other hubs out West first and save LAX for last.

To be honest the one airline that can't get it wrong at LAX is United Airlines, I think if AA, DL and WN take a misstep at LAX they will loose marketshare but still be okay. However UA which is the smallest airline at LAX of the airlines mentioned we can't afford to make a mistake at LAX. Just look at the ground we given up since bankruptcy and more importantly the merger as much as Kirby wanted to UA still has not be able to regain much of that marketshare we lost pre-COVID-19. If there are 2 things that grinds Kirbys gears since joining UA it was UA's decision to leave JFK and UA's decision to give away so much marketshare at LAX. He can't do anything about JFK that ship has sailed but he is not about to give away LAX just because of COVID-19.


I totally agree with your general analysis on where it's safe for UA to cut vs not cut. Seems like DEN is the one that affords the least cut at the moment and IAD can be cut and then added back with little consequences.

But what about the idea that airlines need to be cash positive in their operations by this point of next year and they have to also balance strategic cuts with immediate profitability? I think that alone will compel AA to cut back JFK to like 50 flights a day and LAX to close to 150 to 175 flight a day.

Interestingly WN is treating DEN as their most important station right now. So I see DEN being quite a blood bath coming out of this.
 
D50Player
Posts: 1
Joined: Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:14 am

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:32 am

KFTG wrote:
Scott Kirby: 757 aircraft "most likely" to be retired; A320 fleet 2nd most likely; "50 seat" aircraft to be retired in "almost any scenario" being looked at.


TPG is claiming Kirby said all of the 767's would go with the 757's, if/when it comes down to it:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... us-update/
https://www.airway1.com/aging-aircraft- ... ronavirus/


A real pity if true...
 
codc10
Posts: 2864
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2000 7:18 am

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:32 am

D50Player wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Scott Kirby: 757 aircraft "most likely" to be retired; A320 fleet 2nd most likely; "50 seat" aircraft to be retired in "almost any scenario" being looked at.


TPG is claiming Kirby said all of the 767's would go with the 757's, if/when it comes down to it:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-ai ... us-update/
https://www.airway1.com/aging-aircraft- ... ronavirus/


A real pity if true...


That’s doomsday scenario. Probably accompanied by a Chapter 11 filing. Assume <50% demand rebound by 2021 in that case and the airline needs to cut by 30-40% or more for the long term.
 
MIflyer12
Topic Author
Posts: 8027
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:03 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
LAX is the biggest single O&D airport in the country, and the biggest U.S. TPAC gateway. It's the country's 2nd busiest by international passenger count. Four of the top 10 USA-intl routes are out of LAX. (JFK has two.) All of the Big 3 - and WN - are going to shrink short-term. Listen to Arnold - 'I'll be back.'


While you keep you touting LAX for being so large I feel like your data is quite skewed mostly because EWR steals a lot of traffic from JFK.


In Domestic O&D traffic LAX is the size of JFK + DCA combined. It's ~10 million passengers bigger than JFK. It's as big as EWR and DFW combined. It's 60% larger than DEN. If DEN is too important as a hub to abandon to WN, LAX survives on O&D alone.

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