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Nicknuzzii
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:11 am

Any clue why EWR terminal A is serving mainline departures for UA?
 
United1
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:27 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Any clue why EWR terminal A is serving mainline departures for UA?


nope....in fact UA is consolidating all operations in C for the moment.

Any idea what the flight number out of A was or where it was headed?
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:40 am

United1 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Any clue why EWR terminal A is serving mainline departures for UA?


nope....in fact UA is consolidating all operations in C for the moment.

Any idea what the flight number out of A was or where it was headed?


Was checking don’t have flight numbers but I saw 737s, A320s coming and going. I haven’t heard that they are consolidating all ops to C?
 
United1
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:41 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
United1 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Any clue why EWR terminal A is serving mainline departures for UA?


nope....in fact UA is consolidating all operations in C for the moment.

Any idea what the flight number out of A was or where it was headed?


Was checking don’t have flight numbers but I saw 737s, A320s coming and going. I haven’t heard that they are consolidating all ops to C?


Nothing that I can find departed out of A today...they may have just been parking planes over there vs moving passengers. With all of the cutbacks UA is consolidating operations out of C for the moment...sadly they have plenty of room in C right now.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
United1
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:49 am

jayunited wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Rumors of a whole fleet type being parked... JayUnited you got any more info on this?


The fleet types that have been parked (not retired) are all the 764s, 788s and the PW 752.

Most of the 763s have been parked as well but there are still a few flying around domestically and on our singular EWR-LHR regularly schedule flight.

Also a large number of our 77Es have been parked or they are in Polaris/PE modification there are less than a handful of 77Es flying around and the ones still flying are not being used for cargo charters please see the explanation above for reasons why.

Looking at our 77HD fleet 10 frames so far have been stored (note that number includes N222UA), 10 frames remain in regular schedule service on domestic routes.


I don't think they are going to park all of the 763s for good but UA is operating EWR-FRA/LHR with 78X aircraft tonight. It's possible the company is going to park all of the 767s for a while.
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
United1
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:02 am

United1 wrote:
jayunited wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
Rumors of a whole fleet type being parked... JayUnited you got any more info on this?


The fleet types that have been parked (not retired) are all the 764s, 788s and the PW 752.

Most of the 763s have been parked as well but there are still a few flying around domestically and on our singular EWR-LHR regularly schedule flight.

Also a large number of our 77Es have been parked or they are in Polaris/PE modification there are less than a handful of 77Es flying around and the ones still flying are not being used for cargo charters please see the explanation above for reasons why.

Looking at our 77HD fleet 10 frames so far have been stored (note that number includes N222UA), 10 frames remain in regular schedule service on domestic routes.


I don't think they are going to park all of the 763s for good but UA is operating EWR-FRA/LHR with 78X aircraft tonight. It's possible the company is going to park all of the 767s for a while.


Not to be completely a downer on this thread but..

The 789, 78X and 77Ws can handle all of the international flights for passengers or cargo right now. The 763/4, 788 and 77E fleet can probably be parked for the moment.

The 10 772s not in storage and a mix off the 737/320 fleet can handle all domestic/island flights right now. UA could probably ground all of the 752/3, half of the 772s and lots of the 737/320s for the next couple of months.

A bit sad but this level of operations are only temporary :)
I know the voices in my head aren't real but sometimes their ideas are just awesome!!!
 
wn676
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:18 am

United1 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
United1 wrote:

nope....in fact UA is consolidating all operations in C for the moment.

Any idea what the flight number out of A was or where it was headed?


Was checking don’t have flight numbers but I saw 737s, A320s coming and going. I haven’t heard that they are consolidating all ops to C?


Nothing that I can find departed out of A today...they may have just been parking planes over there vs moving passengers. With all of the cutbacks UA is consolidating operations out of C for the moment...sadly they have plenty of room in C right now.


A-2 is basically an aircraft storage facility for the foreseeable future. I believe CBP is also temporarily consolidating their operations to Terminal B so UA will still have a few flights arriving there.
Tiny, unreadable text leaves ample room for interpretation.
 
Cedar
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:52 am

jayunited wrote:
Cedar wrote:
EWR used to be the mst expensive airport to operate from in NY area (not sure in the nation) - but over the past few years they have done extensive work to reduce that. Especially after UA applied the pressure on PANYNJ & it became public news in major news outlets. In my opinion, I saw no real rhyme or reason for it, other than the fact that they were good at wasting money. But I do know that the more airlines that fly to the airport, the lesser the cost to the other airlines - as the total cost would be split amongst more carriers.
At the moment, the cost is pretty on par with JFK.
As far as it being the most expensive in the nation - I'm pretty sure BOS is more expensive, as I've seen the costs & I was astounded.

Cedar


Not sure where you are getting your information from and perhaps you have misunderstood what we are talking about.

EWR's CPE is $26.17 no projected increase yet
BOS's CPE is $14.37 it is projected to rise to $19.77 by the year 2022
JFK's CPE is $25.41 no projected increase yet
LGA's CPE is $19.33 no projected increase yet
SFO CPE is $20.63 projected to increase to $26.70 by 2026
ORD CPE is $16.89 projected to increase to $42.83 by 2029 (Both UA and AA will raise holy hell over that increase I expect that to be totally uncompetitive come 2029)
https://dwuconsulting.com/airport-finance/large-hub/cpe

EWR also late last year raised their aviation fuel tax a tax that was originally designed to only apply to United Airlines because EWR did not want to negatively impact other carriers. UA fought back and won and the New Jersey Senate was left with 2 choices either every airline pays the higher fuel tax or no airline pays the higher fuel tax. Late last year the increase fuel tax was approved and now it effects all airlines. When you combine the high fuel tax with the CPE which happens to be the highest of any US airport EWR is the most expensive airport to operate out of since either September or October of 2019.


@jayunited - I stand corrected at being the most expensive. I was unaware of the fuel tax. However, they are pretty on par to JFK. There was a bigger gap between JFK & EWR before. But what I was referring to mainly was overall costs. When referring to BOS, while they are cheaper in that sense, rent & other expenses are much higher than EWR from what I've seen.
Again - PANYNJ are pretty good at wasting money. Hence being the most expenisve in the nation at 2 out of the 3 major airports they run. The 3rd only to be beaten by SFO, no surprise.

Cedar
 
caverunner17
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:17 am

IMHO, a lot of this will depend on how long these lockdowns continue for. If things more or less open up on 5/1 (at least to some extent), I could see the economy leveling off and whatnot within a few months. If this extends into summer, then who knows. Given the current MAX issues, I could see some airlines renegotiating with Boeing for either delaying orders or reducing them. I'd assume that the airlines have a large upper hand there right now.

Also, given fuel costs right now, it makes more economic sense to continue flying the 763's and 772's, even on domestic routes, if needed as they are paid off already.

I don't see TPAC flights taking a big hit long term given the importance of manufacturing in China and SE Asia. TATL will drop though.

Personally, I don't see how F9 and NK survive this - at least without some major restructuring and/or a merger. Consumer demand will be super low for the next 4-6 months, and their profit margins have to be razor thin as is, relying on selling out their planes. And given B6's recent major schedule changes, they're in for a world of hurt as well.
 
tpaewr
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 6:11 am

Aither wrote:
Good, we will get bigger then.
Both DL & UA have been looking to "rationalize" their network for quite some time. This crisis is the "opportunity" to speed up things.




Really?

Why has UA been in growth mode to the point of buying up used 320s & 737NG prior to this??
 
tphuang
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:53 am

caverunner17 wrote:
IMHO, a lot of this will depend on how long these lockdowns continue for. If things more or less open up on 5/1 (at least to some extent), I could see the economy leveling off and whatnot within a few months. If this extends into summer, then who knows. Given the current MAX issues, I could see some airlines renegotiating with Boeing for either delaying orders or reducing them. I'd assume that the airlines have a large upper hand there right now.

Also, given fuel costs right now, it makes more economic sense to continue flying the 763's and 772's, even on domestic routes, if needed as they are paid off already.

I don't see TPAC flights taking a big hit long term given the importance of manufacturing in China and SE Asia. TATL will drop though.

Personally, I don't see how F9 and NK survive this - at least without some major restructuring and/or a merger. Consumer demand will be super low for the next 4-6 months, and their profit margins have to be razor thin as is, relying on selling out their planes. And given B6's recent major schedule changes, they're in for a world of hurt as well.


All the LCCs and ULCCs are cutting now because they have low fixed costs, so can make substantial cuts to their schedule and just wait this out. It looks like F9 and NK are not going to take bailout given the cities they are cutting. I guess merger is quite possible with NK. B6 is cutting because its largest station NYC is epicenter or epicenters and 30% of its operation is international, which can't be flown right now.

The domestic LF for end of march was around 10%. Why do you want to fly with larger aircraft?
 
jayunited
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:47 pm

United1 wrote:
Not to be completely a downer on this thread but..

The 789, 78X and 77Ws can handle all of the international flights for passengers or cargo right now. The 763/4, 788 and 77E fleet can probably be parked for the moment.

The 10 772s not in storage and a mix off the 737/320 fleet can handle all domestic/island flights right now. UA could probably ground all of the 752/3, half of the 772s and lots of the 737/320s for the next couple of months.

A bit sad but this level of operations are only temporary :)



You are not being a downer your comments are representative of the environment all airlines find themselves operating in today.

I'm not sure UA will ground all the 752s because they need them for routes like EWR-SFO/LAX and BOS-SFO. I don't see UA even in this environment resorting to 737s on those routes. But for sure a majority of the 752 fleet could be grounded. The 753 fleet is needed domestically and there is one reason that sticks out in my mind and it is the USPS. United still has a contract with the USPS and we have to move the mail 737s are great aircraft but with so much reduced flying those 753s can come in handy moving large volumes of mail between hubs and larger line stations. Even the A320/19s can take more mail volume wise than many 73G, and 738s. Having said that I do know UA has parked quite a few 752/753s but but I do expect this fleet type to remain in service.

Also keep in mind UA has reduced the domestic schedule 65% for the months of April and I believe May so although entire fleet types have not been "stored" many of the planes showing active are not flying everyday. It is not uncommon to see aircraft sit on the ground in an active status for 3-4 days. There are aircraft already in short term and probably long term storage but we also have a large number of aircraft showing as active but what UA is doing in some cases is rotating aircraft in and out of active flying. Of the 10 77HDs still showing active not all 10 are flying everyday. I know you know this United1 but the general public needs to understand that storing an aircraft isn't like "set it and forget it" (I'm sure most people have seen those informercial here in the US).
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:59 pm

AA chose ORD and DFW as their transatlantic gateways for the summer cancelling almost all routes from MIA/JFK/PHL/CLT, is United going to move ahead with ORD/EWR, IAD/EWR, or even just break down all three a little bit?
 
codc10
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:13 pm

If we are talking about parking an entire type (not retiring), for the time being, it’s the 767s. EWRLHR goes to a 787-10 this month.
 
caverunner17
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:29 pm

tphuang wrote:
caverunner17 wrote:
IMHO, a lot of this will depend on how long these lockdowns continue for. If things more or less open up on 5/1 (at least to some extent), I could see the economy leveling off and whatnot within a few months. If this extends into summer, then who knows. Given the current MAX issues, I could see some airlines renegotiating with Boeing for either delaying orders or reducing them. I'd assume that the airlines have a large upper hand there right now.

Also, given fuel costs right now, it makes more economic sense to continue flying the 763's and 772's, even on domestic routes, if needed as they are paid off already.

I don't see TPAC flights taking a big hit long term given the importance of manufacturing in China and SE Asia. TATL will drop though.

Personally, I don't see how F9 and NK survive this - at least without some major restructuring and/or a merger. Consumer demand will be super low for the next 4-6 months, and their profit margins have to be razor thin as is, relying on selling out their planes. And given B6's recent major schedule changes, they're in for a world of hurt as well.




The domestic LF for end of march was around 10%. Why do you want to fly with larger aircraft?

Keeping aircraft they've paid for rather than ordering new ones. The 10% LF for flights is only temporary. Come summer that number will jump back up. It'd be smart to postpone new aircraft deliveries as far out as they can at the moment IMHO.
 
KFTG
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:02 pm

Town Hall call starting now.
 
UALeng
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:10 pm

757-224s are not expected to return, as well as a handful of 767-400s I believe
 
KFTG
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:19 pm

The 767-400s are definitely the "oddball" in the UA fleet, and it might make sense to retire the type. This is why I was asking if they may be suitable for cargo conversion.
 
UALeng
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:37 pm

I know they paused (might have cancelled long term, not sure) the polaris reconfigs on -400s, take from that what you will. Granted most capex projects are paused right now across the board
 
KFTG
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:47 pm

Scott Kirby: 757 aircraft "most likely" to be retired; A320 fleet 2nd most likely; "50 seat" aircraft to be retired in "almost any scenario" being looked at.
Last edited by KFTG on Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
codc10
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:57 pm

KFTG wrote:
Scott Kirby: 757 aircraft "most likely" to be retired; A320 fleet 2nd most likely; "50 seat" aircraft to be retired in "almost any scenario" being looked at.


Any information you can share would be appreciated... I don't think I'll get a look at it until it's archived.
 
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AVENSAB727
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:58 pm

KFTG wrote:
Scott Kirby: 757 aircraft "most likely" to be retired; A320 fleet 2nd most likely; "50 seat" aircraft to be retired in "almost any scenario" being looked at.

Yikes, I wonder what planes will serve those EWR-TATL routes and IAH-BOG routes.
Always look on the bright side of Life!
 
KFTG
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:59 pm

They are modeling a variety of scenarios and want to be as flexible as possible with respect to demand.
Nothing "earth shattering" in the town hall. Some of the questions were redundant, unfortunately.
 
CALMSP
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:02 pm

AVENSAB727 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Scott Kirby: 757 aircraft "most likely" to be retired; A320 fleet 2nd most likely; "50 seat" aircraft to be retired in "almost any scenario" being looked at.

Yikes, I wonder what planes will serve those EWR-TATL routes and IAH-BOG routes.


there really isn't a lot left that is running from EWR. We were seeing ORD-DUB/SNN/EDI, IAD-BCN/MAD/LIS/DUB. I'd say those are done for the time being except for one or two with a 763 during the summer months. EWR-TATL should be shifting to wide body only now.
 
KFTG
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:06 pm

And that doesn't mean UA is imminently retiring 757s. It means that if they do, it will be the most at risk.
Take that as you will. (They are also good candidates for freighter conversion.)
 
jagraham
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:41 pm

United1 wrote:
Looks like none of the 77Ws are stored right now. The ship number is followed by what the aircraft did last all of which was within the last 24 hours except for aircraft in MTC of course.

31 FRA-IAH Cargo
32 IAH-GRU Passenger
33 ORD-FRA Cargo
34 FRA-EWR Cargo
35 EWR-TLV Passenger
36 HKG MTC
37 IAH - scheduled to fly IAH-GRU tomorrow in passenger service
38 ORD-PVG Cargo (was canceled tonight due to MTC but the aircraft is not stored)
39 Just came out of MTC in XMN
40 LAX-HKG Cargo
41 SYD-SFO Passenger
42 EWR-ORD Cargo
43 HKG MTC
44 FRA-SFO Passenger
45 ORD-PVG Cargo
46 SFO-GUM Not sure if this is going in for MTC in China or is flying cargo
47 EWR-SFO Passenger
48 HKG-LAX Cargo or
49 EWR-IAH Passenger
50 GRU-EWR Passenger
51 AMS-EWR Cargo
52 SFO Induction



Post #38 is significant. 22 77Ws and they are all flying except for maintenance and one induction. 9 cargo only flights. 3 domestic flights (which can't be for the pax)

UA has plenty of 77Es. The only reason to fly all the available 77Ws is because cargo needs it, and the rates make it worthwhile.

We need to figure out where the cargo is going if we want to make accurate predictions on the future UA fleet.
 
codc10
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:13 pm

jagraham wrote:
United1 wrote:
Looks like none of the 77Ws are stored right now. The ship number is followed by what the aircraft did last all of which was within the last 24 hours except for aircraft in MTC of course.

31 FRA-IAH Cargo
32 IAH-GRU Passenger
33 ORD-FRA Cargo
34 FRA-EWR Cargo
35 EWR-TLV Passenger
36 HKG MTC
37 IAH - scheduled to fly IAH-GRU tomorrow in passenger service
38 ORD-PVG Cargo (was canceled tonight due to MTC but the aircraft is not stored)
39 Just came out of MTC in XMN
40 LAX-HKG Cargo
41 SYD-SFO Passenger
42 EWR-ORD Cargo
43 HKG MTC
44 FRA-SFO Passenger
45 ORD-PVG Cargo
46 SFO-GUM Not sure if this is going in for MTC in China or is flying cargo
47 EWR-SFO Passenger
48 HKG-LAX Cargo or
49 EWR-IAH Passenger
50 GRU-EWR Passenger
51 AMS-EWR Cargo
52 SFO Induction



Post #38 is significant. 22 77Ws and they are all flying except for maintenance and one induction. 9 cargo only flights. 3 domestic flights (which can't be for the pax)

UA has plenty of 77Es. The only reason to fly all the available 77Ws is because cargo needs it, and the rates make it worthwhile.

We need to figure out where the cargo is going if we want to make accurate predictions on the future UA fleet.


New metal with big payments due. Same with the 787-10s. Not to mention the fact that they can haul around a lot of freight. Fully depreciated 77Es and 767s are much easier to park, for however long.
 
Nicknuzzii
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:19 pm

Will there be a way for us non UA employees to view the town hall after?
 
FSDan
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:37 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Will there be a way for us non UA employees to view the town hall after?


I'd doubt it as those are intended to be internal events. But the UA insiders here tend to provide the more relevant details for discussion.
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FSDan
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:41 pm

AVENSAB727 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Scott Kirby: 757 aircraft "most likely" to be retired; A320 fleet 2nd most likely; "50 seat" aircraft to be retired in "almost any scenario" being looked at.

Yikes, I wonder what planes will serve those EWR-TATL routes and IAH-BOG routes.


EWR-TATL routes would either be dropped (probably just temporarily until the economy recovers and some MAXs or 321XLRs are available to pick them back up) or in some cases potentially upgauged to 767s in combination with reduced service from other hubs. I'm thinking of a scenario such as ORD-EDI and IAD-EDI being dropped while EWR-EDI is upgauged from a 752 to a 763.

IAH-BOG has been planned as an all-737 route for this summer since before all the COVID-19 fallout...
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jetmatt777
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:02 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Will there be a way for us non UA employees to view the town hall after?


You didn't miss anything ground breaking. It was mainly about employee concerns such as safety and sanitation in the workplace, the F word and if/when it will happen, the stimulus bill, and basic explanations of business plans going forward which are not a secret.
 
FSDan
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:10 pm

KFTG wrote:
Scott Kirby: 757 aircraft "most likely" to be retired; A320 fleet 2nd most likely; "50 seat" aircraft to be retired in "almost any scenario" being looked at.


I'm guessing the 50-seat aircraft Kirby is referring to are the CR2s and/or ER4s, and not the CR5s that have just recently been invested in. Although I suppose it's possible UA can no longer get the yield premium they need to make the CR5 fleet worthwhile... I hope that's not the case - they seem like a huge improvement over CR2s and ER4s from a pax ex point of view.

Interesting that Kirby didn't mention the HD 772 fleet at all... I was picturing a scenario where those get retired and the 764 fleet moves to a domestic role to fill in any gaps (and thereby avoids the need to go through Polaris mods), but perhaps UA is viewing that from the perspective of many of the 772s having just recently been reconfigured, while the 764s have yet to see any sunk capital. This one will be interesting to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.

Regarding the 752s, I was thinking last night through a scenario where UA retires all of them in the short term. If that were to happen, here's what I could see happening to the current long haul 752 routes (this is thinking forward several months to the scenario where some demand has returned, but the market is still recovering overall):

DEN-LIH: cut, with traffic routed through SFO/LAX
DEN-HNL: reduced back to 1x daily widebody (764 or 772, depending on decision about domestic widebody fleet)
DEN-KOA: cut, with traffic routed through SFO/LAX
IAH-ANC: cut until the MAX is back in the air (traffic routed through DEN in the meantime), then summer-seasonal 7M9
ORD-DUB: cut, with traffic routed through EWR
ORD-EDI: cut, with traffic routed through EWR
IAD-DUB: cut, with traffic routed through EWR
IAD-EDI: cut, with traffic routed through EWR
IAD-LHR (morning): upgauged to 763 high-J, with two PM flights downgauged to 763 high-J (this assumes a few 763 high-J route cuts in other parts of the network, such as ORD-ZRH, EWR-NCE, and the 2nd daily EWR-FRA)
IAD-LIS: cut, with traffic routed through EWR
EWR-LIM: cut, with traffic routed through IAH (or maybe a winter-seasonal 763 could work here)
EWR-KEF: cut
EWR-SNN: cut (or maybe an outside chance of being a summer-seasonal 763 route)
EWR-GLA: cut
EWR-EDI: upgauged to 763
EWR-OPO: cut, codeshare with TP
EWR-ARN: cut, codeshare with SK

I also fully understand UA uses the 752s widely on SFO-EWR/BOS and LAX-EWR. For these transcons I was thinking that if the 764 fleet was repurposed to domestic use, they could pick up any slack on these routes in the short term, at lower frequency. When the MAX-10s start arriving, they would displace the 764s.

Note that any route dropped as the result of a hypothetical mass 752 retirement would be a prime candidate for 321XLR service once those begin arriving. Anyway, this is all just a thought exercise, but I think it's interesting to think through.
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Nicknuzzii
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:20 pm

You can’t just simply “cut” all of UA’s 757 routes. They were served profitably for years and now you think 90% should just be done away with? I think EWR-KEF/SNN/ARN/OPO/LIM could all be sustained with a different aircraft.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:21 pm

KFTG wrote:
And that doesn't mean UA is imminently retiring 757s. It means that if they do, it will be the most at risk.
Take that as you will. (They are also good candidates for freighter conversion.)

That depends on which 757.

UA has, per airfleets, LN298 to LN1032 (not inclusive) That is 1989 to 2004 deliveries.
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Uni ... e-b757.htm

LN246 I couldn't find information (I assume deregistered)
LN298 has 98,282 hours and 27,642 cycles as of June 2019. So a possible candidate, but not a great candidate.
LN1032 has at October 2018 (no newer data): 43,261 hours and 12,132 cycles. A very good candidate for freighter conversion.


FAA site to look up maintenance records, Put in the registration number (without the N, for example LN246 is 502UA, and put in a date range, say last year:
https://av-info.faa.gov/sdrx/Query.aspx

So, in my opinion, the newer 757s will find more willing buyers.
For reference AA has LN568 to LN1012
DL has LN229 to LN1050

Depending how many choose to retire will depend on which are attractive as freighters. All would have been economical conversions 2 years ago, I simply speculate the market shifted and buyers will want younger aircraft (upgraded engines, more life on the conversion).

For reference, the 757 limit of validity is 150,000 FH (Flight hours) and 75,000 FC (flight cycles) :
https://www.boeing.com/commercial/aerom ... 2012_q4/2/

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airportugal310
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:28 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
You can’t just simply “cut” all of UA’s 757 routes. They were served profitably for years and now you think 90% should just be done away with? I think EWR-KEF/SNN/ARN/OPO/LIM could all be sustained with a different aircraft.


They can and they will if they want to. Your opinion does not matter to them
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KFTG
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:32 pm

They are in "survival mode". They will do whatever it takes to preserve the enterprise.
I hope the company comes out with early retirement packages, and soon. Headcount will no doubt be reduced.
 
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:35 pm

airportugal310 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
You can’t just simply “cut” all of UA’s 757 routes. They were served profitably for years and now you think 90% should just be done away with? I think EWR-KEF/SNN/ARN/OPO/LIM could all be sustained with a different aircraft.


They can and they will if they want to. Your opinion does not matter to them


It has nothing to do with my opinion I’m just stating what is going to happen.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:39 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
You can’t just simply “cut” all of UA’s 757 routes. They were served profitably for years and now you think 90% should just be done away with? I think EWR-KEF/SNN/ARN/OPO/LIM could all be sustained with a different aircraft.


They can and they will if they want to. Your opinion does not matter to them


It has nothing to do with my opinion I’m just stating what is going to happen.


You cant state whats going to happen because you have no idea whats going to happen. Unless you work in revenue management in Chicago, you cant possibly know. None of us do.
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jetblastdubai
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:46 pm

jetmatt777 wrote:
and basic explanations of business plans going forward which are not a secret.


I'm sure it wasn't addressed in the dialog but I have to wonder if Kirby isn't looking at an opportunity to get back into JFK after all the fallout is done and everyone has scaled back their existing operations. Unless JFK miraculously doesn't see any cutbacks by anyone, theoretically there should be some slots available when the dust settles.

I realize that UA will be a smaller company overall but if Kirby thinks it was a mistake to leave JFK in the first place, he might want to get his foot back in the door when a rare opportunity exists and establish some presence once again.

Yes, I know every airline management person has their plate overflowing right now but if this was on Kirby's long-range plan before, this might be the opening he was looking for. Thoughts.....?
 
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chepos
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:04 am

jetblastdubai wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
and basic explanations of business plans going forward which are not a secret.


I'm sure it wasn't addressed in the dialog but I have to wonder if Kirby isn't looking at an opportunity to get back into JFK after all the fallout is done and everyone has scaled back their existing operations. Unless JFK miraculously doesn't see any cutbacks by anyone, theoretically there should be some slots available when the dust settles.

I realize that UA will be a smaller company overall but if Kirby thinks it was a mistake to leave JFK in the first place, he might want to get his foot back in the door when a rare opportunity exists and establish some presence once again.

Yes, I know every airline management person has their plate overflowing right now but if this was on Kirby's long-range plan before, this might be the opening he was looking for. Thoughts.....?

He also said that in a pre covid 19 environment.


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UPlog
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:06 am

Some insight from the town hall event today

United Airlines President No Longer Counting on Quick ‘Snap Back’
https://skift.com/2020/04/02/united-air ... snap-back/
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jetblastdubai
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:17 am

chepos wrote:
jetblastdubai wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
and basic explanations of business plans going forward which are not a secret.




He also said that in a pre covid 19 environment.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


This is from the above Skift article....sounds like Kirby is already looking past the short-term.

"While United may be more conservative with its balance sheet, Kirby said he still views the crisis as an opportunity.
Since arriving from American Airlines in 2016, Kirby has often complained that United was too small relative to its main rivals, and he hinted Thursday the airline might use this period to go on the offensive.
“We need to be in a position … where we can be the airline that quickly ramps back our capacity back up from 50 percent to 100 percent,” he said. “If we do that, we can really emerge stronger on the other side, relative to our competitors.”
 
United1
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:30 am

chepos wrote:
jetblastdubai wrote:
jetmatt777 wrote:
and basic explanations of business plans going forward which are not a secret.


I'm sure it wasn't addressed in the dialog but I have to wonder if Kirby isn't looking at an opportunity to get back into JFK after all the fallout is done and everyone has scaled back their existing operations. Unless JFK miraculously doesn't see any cutbacks by anyone, theoretically there should be some slots available when the dust settles.

I realize that UA will be a smaller company overall but if Kirby thinks it was a mistake to leave JFK in the first place, he might want to get his foot back in the door when a rare opportunity exists and establish some presence once again.

Yes, I know every airline management person has their plate overflowing right now but if this was on Kirby's long-range plan before, this might be the opening he was looking for. Thoughts.....?

He also said that in a pre covid 19 environment.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


He did but....

"While United may be more conservative with its balance sheet, Kirby said he still views the crisis as an opportunity.

Since arriving from American Airlines in 2016, Kirby has often complained that United was too small relative to its main rivals, and he hinted Thursday the airline might use this period to go on the offensive.

“We need to be in a position … where we can be the airline that quickly ramps back our capacity back up from 50 percent to 100 percent,” he said. “If we do that, we can really emerge stronger on the other side, relative to our competitors.”

And though United has considered retiring some airplanes, Kirby said the carrier might be prepared to take advantage of a buyers’ market for aircraft. Sometimes, a well-capitalized airline can thrive by retiring a 25-year-old airplane and replacing it with a seven-year-old aircraft purchased a fire-sale price.

“The optimistic scenario is that airlines around the world are not in the same position as us and didn’t respond as aggressively and as nimbly as us and we could go even buy more airplanes cheaply,’ he said."
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United1
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:31 am

KFTG wrote:
They are in "survival mode". They will do whatever it takes to preserve the enterprise.
I hope the company comes out with early retirement packages, and soon. Headcount will no doubt be reduced.


They already have offered early outs and voluntary leaves....they will continue to do so.
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:38 am

FSDan wrote:

Interesting that Kirby didn't mention the HD 772 fleet at all... I was picturing a scenario where those get retired and the 764 fleet moves to a domestic role to fill in any gaps (and thereby avoids the need to go through Polaris mods), but perhaps UA is viewing that from the perspective of many of the 772s having just recently been reconfigured, while the 764s have yet to see any sunk capital. This one will be interesting to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.


The 772HD have an amazingly low CASM, will need to double check but I bet they are all paid for and they can carry tons of cargo. If UA needed to chop lots of capacity fast that would be an easy way to go but there are a lot of positives to keeping the 777 fleet.
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N649DL
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:38 am

IDK about you guys, but in this trip report from a few days ago shows EWR buzzing pretty good at 6am in the ticketing areas: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwqEQt2-pgk

I know the flight was empty but it was an HD 777 on EWR-MCO though.

Also, a shame if the 757s are going first as they just started their refurbishment projects. A320 I can understand since many are nearly the same age as the 757 fleet.
Last edited by N649DL on Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:38 am

jetblastdubai wrote:
chepos wrote:
jetblastdubai wrote:



He also said that in a pre covid 19 environment.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


This is from the above Skift article....sounds like Kirby is already looking past the short-term.

"While United may be more conservative with its balance sheet, Kirby said he still views the crisis as an opportunity.
Since arriving from American Airlines in 2016, Kirby has often complained that United was too small relative to its main rivals, and he hinted Thursday the airline might use this period to go on the offensive.
“We need to be in a position … where we can be the airline that quickly ramps back our capacity back up from 50 percent to 100 percent,” he said. “If we do that, we can really emerge stronger on the other side, relative to our competitors.”


Kirby is top notch, I have a lot of confidence in the way he is handling the situation at UA.

If they play this right, there is major upside to UA coming out of this, especially with a weakened AA & DL likely retreating to its core hubs.

Nicknuzzii wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:
Nicknuzzii wrote:
You can’t just simply “cut” all of UA’s 757 routes. They were served profitably for years and now you think 90% should just be done away with? I think EWR-KEF/SNN/ARN/OPO/LIM could all be sustained with a different aircraft.


They can and they will if they want to. Your opinion does not matter to them


It has nothing to do with my opinion I’m just stating what is going to happen.


There's not much of a choice here, if they retire the B757s & some B767s, you would need to pull larger widebody aircraft from larger destinations to serve these smaller destinations which have not proved they can sustain larger equipment (especially in an environment with depressed demand).
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Nicknuzzii
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:06 am

So if you guys really believe UA is going to cut all their 757 routes would you apply your same strategy to the 767 routes? If so it wouldn’t even be worth calling EWR a hub anymore.
 
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:10 am

Midwestindy wrote:
jetblastdubai wrote:
chepos wrote:


This is from the above Skift article....sounds like Kirby is already looking past the short-term.

"While United may be more conservative with its balance sheet, Kirby said he still views the crisis as an opportunity.
Since arriving from American Airlines in 2016, Kirby has often complained that United was too small relative to its main rivals, and he hinted Thursday the airline might use this period to go on the offensive.
“We need to be in a position … where we can be the airline that quickly ramps back our capacity back up from 50 percent to 100 percent,” he said. “If we do that, we can really emerge stronger on the other side, relative to our competitors.”


Kirby is top notch, I have a lot of confidence in the way he is handling the situation at UA.

If they play this right, there is major upside to UA coming out of this, especially with a weakened AA & DL likely retreating to its core hubs.

Nicknuzzii wrote:
airportugal310 wrote:

They can and they will if they want to. Your opinion does not matter to them


It has nothing to do with my opinion I’m just stating what is going to happen.


There's not much of a choice here, if they retire the B757s & some B767s, you would need to pull larger widebody aircraft from larger destinations to serve these smaller destinations which have not proved they can sustain larger equipment (especially in an environment with depressed demand).


No no one is saying that. If UA really wanted they could fly the Max -9 transatlantic. Honestly, a lot of these routes could probably sustain a larger aircraft too. For UA to cut that many routes permanently just because they don’t fly the 757 would be ridiculous.
 
KFTG
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Re: United will be a smaller carrier - Munoz

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:12 am

Some posters in this thread are still in denial about the global situation. It is unlikely any of those "757 routes" are viable for the next couple years.

And yes, they've offered early outs and voluntary leaves but they have NOT offered voluntary early *retirements* or "buy-outs" yet. There is a big difference.

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