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m66
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Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:34 am

Today maybe was the last scheduled flight of an A380 by Lufthansa, they are all parked now. And it might be the end (which was originally planned for 2023 at latest)

Sorry, only in German:
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/lufthansa-vorerst-letzter-linienflug-mit-a380-in-frankfurt-gelandet-a-85ca3e84-1e09-45cb-bb17-19271916283b
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:40 am

This seems somewhat premature, the plan was for them to return 6 of 14 to Airbus in the 2022/23 timeframe IIRC.

Nearly all of the A380s in the world are parked now including 120+ with EK, some of those won’t fly again, most will which is probably I would have thought the same for LH.
 
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calstanford
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:48 am

Most airlines and most routes will come back with suppressed demand, at least for a while. It's reasonable to think the A380 won't be back AF and LH
 
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robby31
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:52 am

I cannot believe it !
 
m66
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:54 am

It took the airline industry 2 years to come back after 2008 - this is something way worse. It will affect demand and economy much more. And future travel restriction (because of a still active thread of the virus in certain parts of the world) will last for months, at least.
 
cedarjet
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:03 pm

Hard to predict which types won’t get reactivated. With fuel prices at record lows, it might not be the most fuel efficient. That said, Lufty A380s may well have flown their last. They’re not going to need that many seats for a while.
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vhtje
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:26 pm

What about LH's 747-8s? Presumably they will also be parked, but will they return to service?
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Scotron12
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:29 pm

m66 wrote:
It took the airline industry 2 years to come back after 2008 - this is something way worse. It will affect demand and economy much more. And future travel restriction (because of a still active thread of the virus in certain parts of the world) will last for months, at least.


UK alone are not definite on freedom of movement restrictions being lifted. Estimates could see it stretch into June.

So yes, this uncertainty will go well into 2021 if not longer. Forget about LH A380s not flying again, think about the 777X that's supposed to arrive next year.
 
Blerg
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:36 pm

Biggest problem for LH is that it has two hubs really close to each other where most long-haul routes overlap. A380 would make sense if they let's say suspended MIA or HKG from MUC and focused them on FRA. However filling duplicate routes from both will be a challenge in the next few years. On top of that, LH Group has hubs it somewhat competes with in BRU, ZRH and VIE. I believe it will be years before Lufthansa will actually need the A380 again. Especially not now when they also have LO to deal with.

It sure is an impressive aircraft but it seems many have struggled with it. This could be good news for B747 as it might become useful on higher density routes.

On a slightly related note, how come LH never sent the A380 to ORD?
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:45 pm

Blerg wrote:
On a slightly related note, how come LH never sent the A380 to ORD?


The LH 388 has been to ORD, but ORD's ancient infrastrucutre makes operations there challenging.
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Blerg
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:49 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Blerg wrote:
On a slightly related note, how come LH never sent the A380 to ORD?


The LH 388 has been to ORD, but ORD's ancient infrastrucutre makes operations there challenging.


But has it been scheduled to regularly operate there or was it visiting from time to time?

LH flies back to Germany from T1, could that be a problem? If I am not wrong T5 can handle the A380, no?
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:02 pm

Blerg wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Blerg wrote:
On a slightly related note, how come LH never sent the A380 to ORD?


The LH 388 has been to ORD, but ORD's ancient infrastrucutre makes operations there challenging.


But has it been scheduled to regularly operate there or was it visiting from time to time?

LH flies back to Germany from T1, could that be a problem? If I am not wrong T5 can handle the A380, no?


T5 can handle the A380, as BA flew it to ORD for a while. EK did, too, but that may have been a one-off (don’t recall if they put it in the regular schedule).
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:03 pm

m66 wrote:
Today maybe was the last scheduled flight of an A380 by Lufthansa, they are all parked now. And it might be the end (which was originally planned for 2023 at latest)


2023 was the reduction of the fleet, not the retirement. They are retiring 6, they will still retain a fleet of 8 (unless the virus changes the plans).
 
Blerg
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:56 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

The LH 388 has been to ORD, but ORD's ancient infrastrucutre makes operations there challenging.


But has it been scheduled to regularly operate there or was it visiting from time to time?

LH flies back to Germany from T1, could that be a problem? If I am not wrong T5 can handle the A380, no?


T5 can handle the A380, as BA flew it to ORD for a while. EK did, too, but that may have been a one-off (don’t recall if they put it in the regular schedule).


I suppose T1 can't handle them? That's where LH departs from back to Europe.
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:00 pm

Blerg wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:
Blerg wrote:

But has it been scheduled to regularly operate there or was it visiting from time to time?

LH flies back to Germany from T1, could that be a problem? If I am not wrong T5 can handle the A380, no?


T5 can handle the A380, as BA flew it to ORD for a while. EK did, too, but that may have been a one-off (don’t recall if they put it in the regular schedule).


I suppose T1 can't handle them? That's where LH departs from back to Europe.


I would imagine not. I’m guessing the expansion plans that would have brought FIS capability to the other terminals along with rebuilding/adding gates would have accommodated them, but now...who knows?
I was raised by a cup of coffee.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:09 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
Blerg wrote:
hOMSaR wrote:

T5 can handle the A380, as BA flew it to ORD for a while. EK did, too, but that may have been a one-off (don’t recall if they put it in the regular schedule).


I suppose T1 can't handle them? That's where LH departs from back to Europe.


I would imagine not. I’m guessing the expansion plans that would have brought FIS capability to the other terminals along with rebuilding/adding gates would have accommodated them, but now...who knows?


I think it was a taxi/tow issue more so than T-1 gates. B17 looks like it has sufficient space, though it has only two jet bridges.
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Mortyman
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:45 pm

Seems like is only temporarily

Lufthansa, Germany’s flag carrier and Europe’s largest legacy airline, has decided to temporarily ground its fleet of 14 Airbus A380s due to a sharp decline in bookings since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.


The superjumbos will be parked at least through the end of May, and will remain at the airline’s hubs in Frankfurt (FRA) and Munich (MUC).


https://thepointsguy.com/news/lufthansa ... ronavirus/

https://airlinegeeks.com/2020/03/08/luf ... 380-fleet/
 
m66
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 4:46 pm

VSMUT wrote:
m66 wrote:
Today maybe was the last scheduled flight of an A380 by Lufthansa, they are all parked now. And it might be the end (which was originally planned for 2023 at latest)


2023 was the reduction of the fleet, not the retirement. They are retiring 6, they will still retain a fleet of 8 (unless the virus changes the plans).


Yep, you are right. I stand corrected. On the other hand, they even had a little ceremonial picture today after landing (as they seem very uncertain about the return):

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/lufthansa-vorerst-letzter-linienflug-mit-a380-in-frankfurt-gelandet-a-85ca3e84-1e09-45cb-bb17-19271916283b#fotostrecke-3fe8d3a4-16bf-4106-b790-6b12496013b6

It is sad.
 
flymia
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:35 pm

I don't think they are done, but this is an eye opener for me as I have yet to get on an A380. Once things get back towards normalcy I'll need to look at just getting a cheap fare one of these days and take a quick trip to get on one.
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viennafly
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:49 pm

A good overview, of where and which LH-A/C are parked can be found here:

https://sites.google.com/site/lhgroupfleet/lufthansa
 
Blerg
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:50 pm

Could this mean the A346s and B744s will stay longer in the fleet if the A380s end up grounded for a while longer? Or are they getting retired regardless of this?

Or will the incoming A350s replace the A346s?I wonder if LH can defer some deliveries given the circumstances.
 
blueflyer
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:46 pm

The rumor of the Lufthansa A380's death are greatly exaggerated. Neither FRA nor MUC are airports where airlines park planes to go into storage for an extended period, let alone die, yet that is where the A380s are. All that it tells us is that Lufthansa wants to keep all its options open at this time.

Maybe it will be the death knell of the aircraft, Or maybe Blerg is on to something and rather than fly daily from MUC and FRA to many long-haul destinations, Lufthansa is considering (too soon to talk of plans imho) consolidating into a single flight out of FRA or MUC, with some destinations served by the A380. If there is one airline that dominates its home market and can get away with a move like that without fearing much a new entrant trying to grab a slice of the O/D market it is abandoning, it is Lufthansa. Or maybe Lufthansa has doubts about the future of the 777X and will want to keep a few A380s on property if Boeing (permanently) delays deliveries. Or yet again the bean counters are concerned about tightening credit market, the size of cash deposits required, etc, and think existing financial instruments for the A380 may be a better deal than new loans/leases for the 777X... Or perhaps they have already decided to retire the A380 and expect to get little more than junk metal prices out of it and don't care whether they rot on site for the next six months.

Bottom line is, for now Lufthansa is keeping its A380 fleet ready to go back to the skies. We can speculate all we want, but we don't know.
 
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Jayafe
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:47 pm

vhtje wrote:
What about LH's 747-8s? Presumably they will also be parked, but will they return to service?



How you dare?! :roll: :rotfl:
 
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Revelation
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:54 pm

I don't see LH totally shutting down A380, they have the routes to support them and they have their own MRO that takes care of them for themselves and others.

vhtje wrote:
What about LH's 747-8s? Presumably they will also be parked, but will they return to service?

They too will RTS for similar reasons.

One thing this cycle is showing us is that belly cargo matters, and 748 is very good at that.
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BN727227Ultra
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:02 am

vhtje wrote:
What about LH's 747-8s? Presumably they will also be parked, but will they return to service?


If DL and AA can make money filling the belly of a 777, surely LH can, filling a 744, 748 or 380?
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:17 am

vhtje wrote:
What about LH's 747-8s? Presumably they will also be parked, but will they return to service?


I believe the B748 will return; LH has made the 747 series work and they still have a sizeable 747 fleet (B744 and B748). The B748s have a specific niche in the LH network: first class with high J with much less Y than the A380. I also see this as a reprieve for the A346, as their length allows for a lot of LD3 containers, more than the A380.

I also see it more likely that LH will convert some B789 orders to the B78X, as the B78X is a lighter plane than the B772 and likely more capable than the A333. The B789 would work across the entire LX, OS, SN, and WK networks, while the B78X would work at LX and LH in a 4-class configuration on current 4-class routes shorter. (The B77Ws at LX could then be shifted to LH as A346 replacements.)

Also, depending on how good the range is for the A321XLR, I could see LH finally being convinced to order the A321XLR, which could be very good for all of the Lufthansa Group hubs other than in Germany and Switzerland, to the eastern USA and Canada (BOS, EWR, JFK, YYZ) as well as the Africa network to increase frequencies (excluding destinations like BJM, EBB, FIH, and KGL). I also expect A321neo family sales to go way up, as airlines go with smaller planes over longer distances...right now, Airbus can offer something in the 4000 nmi range with a narrow body while Boeing cannot. The slower cruise speed of Mach 0.78 is really the only trade-off. Heavier loads can then be routed through FRA, MUC, or ZRH (except to Africa where they can go via BRU).
 
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:28 am

BN727227Ultra wrote:
vhtje wrote:
What about LH's 747-8s? Presumably they will also be parked, but will they return to service?


If DL and AA can make money filling the belly of a 777, surely LH can, filling a 744, 748 or 380?


The A380 would probably be the last aircraft running around with only freight in it, it’s fairly volume limited for its size, 747/346/359 would carry more for less.
 
Planeboy17
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:32 am

Cubsrule wrote:
Blerg wrote:
On a slightly related note, how come LH never sent the A380 to ORD?


The LH 388 has been to ORD, but ORD's ancient infrastrucutre makes operations there challenging.

I don’t recall that happening. When was this?
 
Cubsrule
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:36 am

Planeboy17 wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Blerg wrote:
On a slightly related note, how come LH never sent the A380 to ORD?


The LH 388 has been to ORD, but ORD's ancient infrastrucutre makes operations there challenging.

I don’t recall that happening. When was this?


The one I was thinking of was the demonstration flight in the spring (?) of 2007. It landed 4R and, IINM, departed on what is now 10R.
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SeaDoo
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:45 am

viennafly wrote:
A good overview, of where and which LH-A/C are parked can be found here:

https://sites.google.com/site/lhgroupfleet/lufthansa


That is a neat website. Out of curiosity, what the heck is "ex Ebola Jet?"
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:06 am

SeaDoo wrote:
viennafly wrote:
A good overview, of where and which LH-A/C are parked can be found here:

https://sites.google.com/site/lhgroupfleet/lufthansa


That is a neat website. Out of curiosity, what the heck is "ex Ebola Jet?"

An A343 that LH took out of service to help transporting those Ebola patients but ended up never being put into that use.

Michael
 
SeaDoo
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:20 am

eamondzhang wrote:
SeaDoo wrote:
viennafly wrote:
A good overview, of where and which LH-A/C are parked can be found here:

https://sites.google.com/site/lhgroupfleet/lufthansa


That is a neat website. Out of curiosity, what the heck is "ex Ebola Jet?"

An A343 that LH took out of service to help transporting those Ebola patients but ended up never being put into that use.

Michael


Thanks
 
Blerg
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:39 am

Will all this that's going on right now, I doubt LH will approve a widebody fleet renewal for OS. Best case scenario is that they get some younger B772s however those B767s are getting pretty old by now.
 
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Terrier79
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Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:48 am

We read in other threads that United and Delta expect to emerge as smaller carriers from the corona crisis. Lufti expect the same.

So what does smaller mean? It means transporting fewer passengers at first. That could be via less frequencies, via smaller gauges, via less hubs.

Looking at LH, there are several options possible. If they decide to keep their multihub system (FRA MUC ZRH VIE BRU) alive, I’d expect this to be the end of the A380 as we are going to see smaller aircraft across the network.

If they decide to reduce the number of their hubs or not to serve many destinations multiple times a day, there might be a future for the A380.

I personally expect that the A380 will not return to passenger service at LH.

Talking about Austrians longhaul fleet. I don’t expect a renewal at all any more. Austrian as an airline is at Risk to survive as a whole. I expect Austrian to survive, but with no own longhaul network in the future, so they also need no new longhaul aircraft any more.
 
KFTG
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:49 am

Are there any prospects for A380 freighter conversion?
 
Blerg
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:59 am

Terrier79 wrote:
We read in other threads that United and Delta expect to emerge as smaller carriers from the corona crisis. Lufti expect the same.

So what does smaller mean? It means transporting fewer passengers at first. That could be via less frequencies, via smaller gauges, via less hubs.

Looking at LH, there are several options possible. If they decide to keep their multihub system (FRA MUC ZRH VIE BRU) alive, I’d expect this to be the end of the A380 as we are going to see smaller aircraft across the network.

If they decide to reduce the number of their hubs or not to serve many destinations multiple times a day, there might be a future for the A380.

I personally expect that the A380 will not return to passenger service at LH.

Talking about Austrians longhaul fleet. I don’t expect a renewal at all any more. Austrian as an airline is at Risk to survive as a whole. I expect Austrian to survive, but with no own longhaul network in the future, so they also need no new longhaul aircraft any more.


There is also something else we need to consider and that is what will LH's competition do once the crisis is over. If airlines such as SAS, KLM, Air France, LOT... shrink their long-haul fleets or reduce the number of seats they offer to key markets, we might see LH Group profit as a whole meaning that the A380 might have a chance.

With DL and UA emerging as smaller carriers out of this it probably also means we will see fewer flights to secondary markets meaning more transfer passengers for traditional hubs.

As for OS, I do agree with you. Long-haul might no longer make sense for them once their B767 no longer can fly. All of their passengers can be shuttled through Munich, Frankfurt and Zurich. That said, I remember reading somewhere that OS' long-haul network was actually profitable. If that's the case I wonder if we might see them keep some of them especially Star Alliance hubs around the world.
 
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Terrier79
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:04 am

KFTG wrote:
Are there any prospects for A380 freighter conversion?

AFAIK all A380 that were removed from active fleets except of the lucky HiFly ones eventually ended up at the scrapper. Practically no second hand market.

As for freighter conversions, there are some major problems:
1. The floors would have to be strengthened to carry the extra weight of cargo
2. Cargo sized doors and the structural problems that come along with them
3. A380 can carry high volume, low density only. Max payload is only at 84t.
 
Bhoy
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:27 am

BN727227Ultra wrote:
vhtje wrote:
What about LH's 747-8s? Presumably they will also be parked, but will they return to service?


If DL and AA can make money filling the belly of a 777, surely LH can, filling a 744, 748 or 380?



The problem with the 380 for Cargo is it's volume limited - the 77W is 2 feet longer than the 388, which also has to have bigger fuel tanks due to the additional weight of the Aircraft.

Emirates SkyCargo has a comparison as to the Cargo Capacity of the three Aircraft they use, 388, 77W (Cargo capacity on Passenger flights) and 77F (Full freighter) https://www.skycargo.com/fleet/air-fleet/

388: 8 tons of Cargo capacity with a full Pax load - Cargo Volume: 88m3

77W: 21 tons of Cargo capacity with a full Pax load - Cargo Volume: 125m3

77F: 103 tons of Cargo capacity - Cargo Volume 550m3


Whilst obviously none of the above would be travelling with a full Pax load just now, it does demonstrate how the 77W has a lot more space in the hold (the 77F is shorter - it's 772 size - but obviously has the Main Deck for Cargo Capacity, too).

So whilst the 77W flying just belly Cargo can turn a profit for DL and AA, the 380's limited Space and increased structural weight/fuel costs probably limits it's profitability for belly cargo considerably.
 
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vhtje
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:01 am

Jayafe wrote:
vhtje wrote:
What about LH's 747-8s? Presumably they will also be parked, but will they return to service?



How you dare?! :roll: :rotfl:



Ha ha, yes.

But - I am curious to know the economics of the A380 vs 747-8i vs 77W. If LH (and KE) return the 747-8 to service but retire the A380, it will be telling.
I only turn left when boarding aircraft. Well, mostly. All right, sometimes. OH OKAY - rarely.
 
Opus99
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:24 am

Scotron12 wrote:
m66 wrote:
It took the airline industry 2 years to come back after 2008 - this is something way worse. It will affect demand and economy much more. And future travel restriction (because of a still active thread of the virus in certain parts of the world) will last for months, at least.


UK alone are not definite on freedom of movement restrictions being lifted. Estimates could see it stretch into June.

So yes, this uncertainty will go well into 2021 if not longer. Forget about LH A380s not flying again, think about the 777X that's supposed to arrive next year.

I think LH will slightly delay the 777X due to cash constraints and nothing else. I think this period has shown the importance of cargo capability and the 779 is fantastic at that. Also, I don’t expect the 779 to be Fully ready till about mid 2021. Demand will be nowhere near what it was pre covid 19 but airlines should be in a better place then than they are now for sure
 
Jomar777
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:25 am

aemoreira1981 wrote:
vhtje wrote:
What about LH's 747-8s? Presumably they will also be parked, but will they return to service?


I believe the B748 will return; LH has made the 747 series work and they still have a sizeable 747 fleet (B744 and B748). The B748s have a specific niche in the LH network: first class with high J with much less Y than the A380. I also see this as a reprieve for the A346, as their length allows for a lot of LD3 containers, more than the A380.

I also see it more likely that LH will convert some B789 orders to the B78X, as the B78X is a lighter plane than the B772 and likely more capable than the A333. The B789 would work across the entire LX, OS, SN, and WK networks, while the B78X would work at LX and LH in a 4-class configuration on current 4-class routes shorter. (The B77Ws at LX could then be shifted to LH as A346 replacements.)

Also, depending on how good the range is for the A321XLR, I could see LH finally being convinced to order the A321XLR, which could be very good for all of the Lufthansa Group hubs other than in Germany and Switzerland, to the eastern USA and Canada (BOS, EWR, JFK, YYZ) as well as the Africa network to increase frequencies (excluding destinations like BJM, EBB, FIH, and KGL). I also expect A321neo family sales to go way up, as airlines go with smaller planes over longer distances...right now, Airbus can offer something in the 4000 nmi range with a narrow body while Boeing cannot. The slower cruise speed of Mach 0.78 is really the only trade-off. Heavier loads can then be routed through FRA, MUC, or ZRH (except to Africa where they can go via BRU).


I see your point in regards to the A321XLR but would note that, as to the B748, LH has no further orders on the frame. It will be interesting to see what they will order if/when the remaining A380s need to be replaced.

Having said this, I am not at all sure what will happen to the overall A380s in the market. The COVID19 throws things everywhere: passenger demand dropped but so did oil prices. Some routes where we have two B777s running close to each other, for example, could well be replaced by a single A380. Who knows, we might see one of the US3 doing this from LHR, for example... pure speculation but still something that might even happen depending on when the COVID19s eases - loads of cheap, relatively new A380s around might be tempting to someone.

In regards to the A321XLR again, I feel that COVID19 or not, they will sell well and many airlines will consider those for long haul thin routes.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:29 am

Terrier79 wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Are there any prospects for A380 freighter conversion?

AFAIK all A380 that were removed from active fleets except of the lucky HiFly ones eventually ended up at the scrapper. Practically no second hand market.


In fairness, "all" those A380s (just 6 so far) were leased, not owned. Retiring an aircraft that comes off a lease is a somewhat different prospect than retiring an owned aircraft. The 5 Singapore aircraft were all overweight oddballs with the wiring issue. The leasing company also grossly overestimated the value of spare parts they could sell from them, which will also impact future decisions to scrap, lease out or sell.
 
smartplane
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:32 am

BN727227Ultra wrote:
vhtje wrote:
What about LH's 747-8s? Presumably they will also be parked, but will they return to service?


If DL and AA can make money filling the belly of a 777, surely LH can, filling a 744, 748 or 380?

Freight in a passenger aircraft, in more normal circumstances, falls into two categories - spot and contracted. Contracted freight is often priced on extremely slim margins, and may include financial penalties for both parties (for the airline - delivery breach, and customer - a % payment even if no freight carried). Spot is usually more profitable.

Passenger aircraft are being flown freight only, partly to exploit high spot prices (on some routes), and / or to avoid incurring penalty payments to contracted customers if the flight wasn't offered.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:22 pm

A340 makes for an interesting discussion, surprised no one has raised it.

Wiki's LH fleet page ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lufthansa#Current_fleet ) says LH has 17 A343 and 17 A346, to be replaced by A359 and B789.

On one hand, it'd seem it'd be an interesting fleet to cut, given the four bespoke engines on each plane, trailing edge fuel economy, and a good degree of overlap with the very efficient A359.

On the other hand, if conserving cash is king and oil is cheap, we could see LH ask for and receive deferrals on A359 and B789 and keep some A340s longer than planned since they're paid for and they are the smallest wide bodies LH has at hand.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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mxaxai
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:02 pm

Revelation wrote:
A340 makes for an interesting discussion, surprised no one has raised it.

Wiki's LH fleet page ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lufthansa#Current_fleet ) says LH has 17 A343 and 17 A346, to be replaced by A359 and B789.

On one hand, it'd seem it'd be an interesting fleet to cut, given the four bespoke engines on each plane, trailing edge fuel economy, and a good degree of overlap with the very efficient A359.

On the other hand, if conserving cash is king and oil is cheap, we could see LH ask for and receive deferrals on A359 and B789 and keep some A340s longer than planned since they're paid for and they are the smallest wide bodies LH has at hand.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

LH's youngest A343 is 18 years old and the oldest (that they haven't retired yet) is pushing 24 years. I could see delayed retirement of the A343 at LX (because these are younger) but LH's frames are running out of time. Same for the 744 fleet of similar age, I expect them to be heavily used in the current repatriation program but I wouldn't be surprised if many of the 744's don't return to service.

The A346 is an interesting question, though. On the one hand, their fuel efficiency is entirely uncompetitive against the A359 and 779, and engine maintenance costs for the Trent 500 are through the roof. On the other hand, it is still a good cargo hauler and half of the fleet is fairly young.

The most likely action, IMHO, is that they'll keep receiving A350s to downgauge current A346 and 744 routes as well as upgauge select A343 routes. Other A343 routes will be cut or transferred to existing A330 (either mainline A333 or Eurowings A332). Not sure where the 779 will fit there but it's a bit late to defer those - probably early retirement for the 6 A380's that were supposed to go in 2023 and reduced delivery rates for the remaining order.

Regarding the 789, OS is in dire need of replacement for their 76W and 77E fleets. That's worth about 8-12 aircraft. The others will be deferred.
 
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:41 pm

mxaxai wrote:
LH's youngest A343 is 18 years old and the oldest (that they haven't retired yet) is pushing 24 years. I could see delayed retirement of the A343 at LX (because these are younger) but LH's frames are running out of time. Same for the 744 fleet of similar age, I expect them to be heavily used in the current repatriation program but I wouldn't be surprised if many of the 744's don't return to service.

The A346 is an interesting question, though. On the one hand, their fuel efficiency is entirely uncompetitive against the A359 and 779, and engine maintenance costs for the Trent 500 are through the roof. On the other hand, it is still a good cargo hauler and half of the fleet is fairly young.

The most likely action, IMHO, is that they'll keep receiving A350s to downgauge current A346 and 744 routes as well as upgauge select A343 routes. Other A343 routes will be cut or transferred to existing A330 (either mainline A333 or Eurowings A332). Not sure where the 779 will fit there but it's a bit late to defer those - probably early retirement for the 6 A380's that were supposed to go in 2023 and reduced delivery rates for the remaining order.

Regarding the 789, OS is in dire need of replacement for their 76W and 77E fleets. That's worth about 8-12 aircraft. The others will be deferred.

Thanks for your info and your thoughts. I agree the relative age of the batches matter, as well as the needs of the sister airlines.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Bhoy
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:21 pm

mxaxai wrote:
LH's youngest A343 is 18 years old and the oldest (that they haven't retired yet) is pushing 24 years. I could see delayed retirement of the A343 at LX (because these are younger) but LH's frames are running out of time.

LX' 5 remaining 343s aren't that much younger - all were delivered between June 2003 and April 2004 (as were the 4 that LX bequeathed to WK last year), so all between just under 16 years old and almost 17 years old.

By contrast within the LHGroup, OS only has 1 Widebody that is younger than 18 years old - 772 OE-LPD is a 2007 build, with the rest of the 777 fleet being 2001 builds, whilst the youngest in the 763 fleet is a 2000 build (they have 3 763s that are over 27 years old).
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:41 pm

Revelation wrote:
A340 makes for an interesting discussion, surprised no one has raised it.

Wiki's LH fleet page ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lufthansa#Current_fleet ) says LH has 17 A343 and 17 A346, to be replaced by A359 and B789.

On one hand, it'd seem it'd be an interesting fleet to cut, given the four bespoke engines on each plane, trailing edge fuel economy, and a good degree of overlap with the very efficient A359.

On the other hand, if conserving cash is king and oil is cheap, we could see LH ask for and receive deferrals on A359 and B789 and keep some A340s longer than planned since they're paid for and they are the smallest wide bodies LH has at hand.

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.


That may be the saving grace for the A346 over the A380---the A380 is larger but has fewer LD3 positions (38; the A346 has 43). LH could actually consider reconfiguring the remaining A346s without first class as a B744 replacement and take any that are in storage but not parted out for the same reason, basically ending F from MUC.

The A343 needs to be replaced sooner...as does the long-haul fleet at OS, which has 767s pushing 30.
Last edited by aemoreira1981 on Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Blerg
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:43 pm

But is it realistic to expect that LH will be willing to invest in a new long-haul product at OS right now? Even before the meltdown they insisted OS first become profitable yet they didn't mind adding short-haul aircraft to the fleet.

Maybe LH Group does not plan on maintaining long-haul flights out of VIE in the future. I mean all of North America can easily be served via Germany.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Final(?) flight of a LH A380

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:32 pm

Interesting that the two airlines that operate both the A380 and the 748i (LH and KE) announced that they are parking their A380 but I have not heard anything about their.748s. Are they still flying or not?
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler

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