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deltairlines
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:59 pm

alasizon wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:
AC, AA and DL are the only airlines still flying transborder in April. This struck me as strange:

DL MSP-YWG APR 4>0.0[4]
DL MSP-YXE APR 1.8>1.0[1.8]

YWG is more than 3x the size of YXE, yet YXE keeps a daily DL flight.


Winnipeg is also better connected overall so Saskatoon relies more on connections. I suspect YXE will cancel daily anyhow unless Canada allows transborder flights again.


MSP-YWG information is wrong. It will be operating 1x/day effective April 2 with CRJ-900 equipment.

DL4472 Lv MSP 1115 Ar YWG 1235 CR9
DL4473 Lv YWG 1430 Ar MSP 1549 CR9
 
ZazuPIT
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:00 pm

I suspect we will be looking at these massive cuts every week for awhile.
 
Dominion301
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:04 pm

alasizon wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
djack wrote:
I guess my musing wonders what they believe to the strategy - protect nonexistent marketshare for trash yields and flights that bleed red or cut and run a limited schedule and save the cash on hand for the other end of this.


If they can't cut people or wage rates (and they can't before 9/30/2020, if they take bailout grants), their variable cost for operating a flight is fuel, Biscoffs, and a little maintenance cost from parts and fluids. May as well fly a few, to keep aircraft ready and pilots current.


Little misconception as well, they can cut number of hours scheduled. There is only protection against involuntary layoffs and actual cuts in pay. Reducing hours is still allowed which adds to the costs of each flight/station.

Dominion301 wrote:
AC, AA and DL are the only airlines still flying transborder in April. This struck me as strange:

DL MSP-YWG APR 4>0.0[4]
DL MSP-YXE APR 1.8>1.0[1.8]

YWG is more than 3x the size of YXE, yet YXE keeps a daily DL flight.


Winnipeg is also better connected overall so Saskatoon relies more on connections. I suspect YXE will cancel daily anyhow unless Canada allows transborder flights again.


Transborder is still permitted for essential travel. However, I'd imagine transborder load factors are max 20%. Maybe DL sends a fair amount of cargo to YXE? True YWG is better connected, but even big airports are getting hammered. Take YOW for example, for April, these are the only routes still operating:

YUL
YYZ
YYC (only 4x weekly)
YHZ (only 1x weekly - normally 8-12x daily)
YFB (mostly to keep cargo flowing to Nunavut)
DTW
PHL

That's it out of about 40 usual destinations at this time of year.

Interesting to see B6 already see the writing on the wall for May and hack that month too before others.
 
CALMSP
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:16 pm

ADent wrote:
Thanks enilria.

I just don’t understand why all this much flying is still scheduled - esp when they are cutting flights the day of travel.


agreed, no reason to be flying all of this. waste of fuel, high risk of keeping the virus around.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:18 pm

A lot of things wont come back as they were

Off the top of my head:

DL: BOS

B6: LGB

AA: JFK
 
NickLAX
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:22 pm

Why the need to keep more than 2x frequency on some routes right now? Seriously. Loads of 10% and asking for financial help. Trim down to a morning and evening bank and RARE needed O&D. Everything else needs to stop. Burning cash to run 10-20% load factor is INSANE.
 
joeblow10
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:25 pm

CALMSP wrote:
ADent wrote:
Thanks enilria.

I just don’t understand why all this much flying is still scheduled - esp when they are cutting flights the day of travel.


agreed, no reason to be flying all of this. waste of fuel, high risk of keeping the virus around.


The volume probably won’t stick - but as part of the bailout, it sounds like the language makes any carrier agree to not cut service to stations for the time being, though they can reduce volume.

My guess is by summer, even if the virus is still raging, the very limited planes will start becoming more full again, as volume is trimmed and more and more folks get back to flying for one reason or another
 
Brickell305
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:28 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
AA JFK reduced to practically nothing:

April 17th: 7 destinations & 19 total flights, no regional jets

Not surprising. With no international flights currently and domestic preference for LGA, with the exceptions of outside perimeter flights there’s no tea need for a presence there for AA at the moment.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:38 pm

Chuska wrote:
Thank God Enilria's program didn't meltdown with this one. And we still got it by daybreak Enilria..you rock!.

:)
joeblow10 wrote:
F9 made a bunch of changes yesterday. The pilot forums suggest its upwards of 90%

Also, as far as routes like COD-SLC, that’s at risk flying by OO as far as I can tell. I believe DEN-COD is EAS subsidized - as you pick through the report, it’s clear to see much of the at risk flying is being trimmed

Interesting. I wondered if F9 was going to try to be last man standing with a full-ish schedule. I'm sure their day of week schedule is extremely hard to cancel.
kavok wrote:
Yes, thank you Enilria!!
One clarification: if in last week’s update a flight between XXX-YYY went APR 4.0>3.0 [4.0], and in today’s update the daily frequency went down to 2.0 daily... would today’s update show it as APR 3.0>2.0, or show APR 4.0>2.0. ?

I just ask because I know last week’s update had a bunch of (relatively) minor reductions, particularly for AA and DL, whereas this week’s update reflects the heavier reductions. I just didn’t know because it unusual for frequencies to be reduced on a route two consecutive weeks in a row, which is obviously what is happening. And I was curious if that first number you posted reflected what number of daily flights was in the system last Sunday, or some point several weeks ago.

As always, thank you so much for your time and effort in putting this together. Very much appreciated!

:)
3.0>2.0. The changes are not cumulative. They are the increment of each week's changes, but you can see last year in bracket.
umichman wrote:
DL really pulling back at MDW. DTW and MSP flights are gone for April leaving only 3 daily ATL flights. Wonder if it will survive as a DL station. FNT is down to 1 daily ATL flight for April (wouldn't be surprised if it loses all DL service like TOL).

I had noticed MDW. That is interesting. If they close it they will be at risk of not getting gates again in the future. Odd that ATL is what survived.
knope2001 wrote:
Yeoman's job as always, enilria! :)

greenair727 wrote:
UA CLE-LAX APR 1.0>0.5[1.9]


I thought this route was fully suspended as per https://hub.united.com/united-flight-re ... 14815.html. Did UA change its mind?


United generally pushed this round of sharp cuts out to mid-April. So that 0.5 represents not running the the first half of April and running 1x in the second half. The second half of April does (I believe) already include the much lighter level of reductions announced a week or two ago.

Because United's ax largely seems to have only hit the first half of April thus far, they tally of cuts may not look as severe as they are.

:) Thanks
lavalampluva wrote:
I don’t think the airline industry was this messed up ever before. Even after 9/11 was nothing compare to this.

This is World War 2.
SunsetLimited wrote:
silentbob wrote:
Chuska wrote:
Many of AA's April cuts still show a fraction which is what will run from Apr 1-6. The schedule change is Apr 7, markets like ABQ-LAX, ELP-LAX, SAF-PHX, ROW-PHX, and I'm sure many many others, loose all AA service. All these markets show service returning in May however AA has already announced that even deeper cuts will happen in May, just hasn't made it to the OAG yet.

At a quick glance, it didn't seem that this met the level of reductions that AA said was coming.


The rest is coming next week.

I think May will start rolling out next week. This report only covers the next month and beyond, so we won't see April after today.
hiflyeras wrote:
Appreciate all your hard work, Enrilia. You must have been up all night. Yes, AS cuts for May aren't reflected and will be much worse.

:)
More horrible things to come I'm sure.
Philly65 wrote:
Love this weekly thread, but seriously what is the point now. This will be so hard to track and update. Not even bothering to read this until I hear things are returning to normal, which might be June before we see operations begin to ramp up (best case scenario).

I know what you mean, but I think a lot becomes permanent we just don't know what. The way they are rolling this forward we may never clearly know what is gone because they are chipping away at it piecemeal.
TW870 wrote:
Thank you as always enilria - and especially now given the huge volume of work.

I read all of this as very, very tentative. This load shows DL, for example, restarting much of its European operation in April, albeit at a far restricted volume. But the situation is just devastating there, especially in Southern Europe, and I just do not believe we are going to see any restart of operations to Italy, Spain - or even France or the UK for that matter in April.

As far as JFK-BOM goes, I am not as pessimistic as you were prior to the crisis. But now, I think all bets are off, and we simply do not have enough information to understand how this crisis will change the South Asian market. We have no idea what Emirates - and especially Qatar and Etihad - are going to look like after the crisis, and the shape of those carriers will hugely impact the niche that DL will be able to carve out of the New York-South Asia market.

Also, interesting to see on here that DL is not taking a chainsaw to its new BOS and SEA operations - at least yet. They are slashing them like the rest of the operation, but not more than the rest of the operation (although particular routes like SEA-TPA were cut).

Again, all very tentative.

I actually wonder whether another country in the world is even going to let Americans in for the rest of the year. I think that is very possible.
djack wrote:
Thanks Enilria for the Sunday post!

joeblow10 wrote:
F9 made a bunch of changes yesterday. The pilot forums suggest its upwards of 90%


Frontier did update their schedule last night and it's way beyond what we see here. I had four roundtrips on Frontier scheduled for April. Every single flight was axed in an update last night/this morning. Leading up to this they had sent me emails every day trying to get me to cancel on my own accord with a $50 credit bonus. I'll probably have to fight for my cash back if I can get through their phone lines.

On another note, I'm somewhat surprised that cuts don't go beyond what we are seeing. I can't decide if the airlines can't keep up with the adjustments in real time or they are playing a competitive game of who blinks first. I was watching a lot of LGA routes last week with day of cancelations. They were selling the flights up until midnight and then sometime in the middle of the night most of the flights on a particular route with multiple frequencies would cancel. In this week's report AA shows LGA-RDU going 6>4. I thought that was a bit much, especially when Delta is still running 2 of their own dailies. As it turns out, AA still have 7 daily weekday flight scheduled through the first week of April. I understand the 4 listed is an average for the month. Just shocked they weren't taking action sooner to cut the 7 flights for the upcoming week. Today American canceled all 7 flights. Tomorrow they are only operating 2 of 7 scheduled flights. Delta running 4 of their 5 today and all 6 are still in the system as on time tomorrow...that's one to watch to see what they do.

Long thin routes like DL's TPA-LAX with no nonstop competition is staying 5 weekly in April with loads ranging 15 - 20 people (not %) when they could easily push them through ATL.

I guess my musing wonders what they believe to the strategy - protect nonexistent marketshare for trash yields and flights that bleed red or cut and run a limited schedule and save the cash on hand for the other end of this.

I think they are mostly cutting within 72 hours which you can see on Flightware. I think it's mostly a trick to avoid refunds, but people stopped buying new tickets two weeks ago so by mid-April they pretty much have no bookings. So they can load cuts without creating refunds.
alasizon wrote:
SunsetLimited wrote:
silentbob wrote:
At a quick glance, it didn't seem that this met the level of reductions that AA said was coming.


The rest is coming next week.


Part of the April cuts aren't reflected here or in last weekend's either so it looks like there are some stragglers or they just weren't picked up for whatever reason.

jbmitt wrote:
cledaybuck wrote:
Is DL really increasing CVG-DEN/SLC?


Probably to make up for the reductions on PHX, LAS, SFO, LAX

Increasing in lieu of the other reductions doesn't really make sense though at a time with such low demand. My guess is something was double filed.

Again, a lot was cut last week. And a lot is being operationally cancelled and a lot hasn't been loaded yet.
tphuang wrote:
TW870 wrote:
Thank you as always enilria - and especially now given the huge volume of work.

I read all of this as very, very tentative. This load shows DL, for example, restarting much of its European operation in April, albeit at a far restricted volume. But the situation is just devastating there, especially in Southern Europe, and I just do not believe we are going to see any restart of operations to Italy, Spain - or even France or the UK for that matter in April.

As far as JFK-BOM goes, I am not as pessimistic as you were prior to the crisis. But now, I think all bets are off, and we simply do not have enough information to understand how this crisis will change the South Asian market. We have no idea what Emirates - and especially Qatar and Etihad - are going to look like after the crisis, and the shape of those carriers will hugely impact the niche that DL will be able to carve out of the New York-South Asia market.

Also, interesting to see on here that DL is not taking a chainsaw to its new BOS and SEA operations - at least yet. They are slashing them like the rest of the operation, but not more than the rest of the operation (although particular routes like SEA-TPA were cut).

Again, all very tentative.


DL is not restarting much of its Euroopean operations in April. It just hasn't cut that far out yet. A lot is based on the gov't policies. You will see that a lot of other airlines are also canceling 1 or 2 weeks at a time.

The fact that JFK-BOM is canceled all the way out should be an indication that they don't intend to stay in a market that's obviously going to lose a lot of money through a time when they are having cash issues.

DL is cutting BOS from 140+ flights to barely over 40 in April. Aside from core hubs and NYC, the only destinations with more than 1 flight a day are RDU, CVG and BNA. I'm not sure how much more they can cut unless they just exit out of more of these markets completely.

SEA did a little better. It still has a bunch of multiple frequency routes. Most of the exits are international markets.

Good catch on BOS, I had missed that. I do think this is an admission that BOM was not a great idea.
ADent wrote:
Thanks enilria.

I just don’t understand why all this much flying is still scheduled - esp when they are cutting flights the day of travel.

I answer that above, but I think they are handling the cancel roll-out to minimize refunds and maximize people getting stuck with a travel credit.
Boof02671 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Crazy times. I think we all expected this. Not sure what F9 is doing, I would have thought they would be the first to cut.

I get all the cancellations planes are empty. The airlines also promised they wouldnt lay anyone off? What are all their people going to do with so many less flights and passengers?

AA is in talks to bring outsourced vendor work back in-house to the ramp. And the stimulus money is to pay those salaries for six months.

THIS IS A KEY DATE. The airlines cannot layoff people till October under the stimulus. October is when the airlines are going to rebuild their networks from the ground up.
ZazuPIT wrote:
I suspect we will be looking at these massive cuts every week for awhile.

yup. We need to watch what happens in the October schedule...see above.
 
alasizon
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 7:43 pm

enilria wrote:
We need to watch what happens in the October schedule...see above.

I would suspect the November schedule will be more telling domestically.
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TW870
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:15 pm

Enilria you have mentioned this refund thing a couple of times and I am wondering about this too. Right now, people are losing their jobs left and right, and they are going to have a ton of cash locked up in dead airline reservations that they, at least for now, cannot get back. People are going to need that cash as a source of income. Thankfully, my job seems fine for now, but I have about $2K locked up in DL tickets. I will end up using that money on new tickets later on most likely, but many people won't if their economic situation changes significantly for the worse as a result of the crisis.

I think one of the next big questions is going to be what happens to all that cash locked up in cancelled non-refundable tickets.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:43 pm

Yeah I didn't really think about it frontier and allegiant are in unique postions. Hard for frontier to cancel all those once or twice a week flights. Hard to reschedule the few people booked. They must be burning cash with so few cancellations. I am guessing they are working to purchase tickets on other carriers even though it's against their own policies we have seen them do it at small stations. Unusual situation they are in.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:54 pm

enilria wrote:
THIS IS A KEY DATE. The airlines cannot layoff people till October under the stimulus. October is when the airlines are going to rebuild their networks from the ground up.


Keep in mind this only applies to carriers that accept aid; at least one carrier has stated they're not sure they'll take federal aid because of the conditions attached. Also, while carriers cannot lay off/furlough anyone or reduce their rates of pay, they can and are cutting hours, which has the same net effect as a paycut. I'm sure you'll see some employees whose hours are reduced actively looking for work elsewhere, seeing the writing on the wall.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:58 pm

TW870 wrote:
I think one of the next big questions is going to be what happens to all that cash locked up in cancelled non-refundable tickets.


Just about every airline's contract of carriage requires a refund be an option IF the flight is cancelled or if a schedule change exceeds a certain amount, usually greater than one or two hours from the original schedule. Considering that carriers are cancelling up to 70% or more of their operations, it's conceivable that most customers who are already booked would find themselves eligible for a refund.

Keep in mind, though, that over the past 5 years, forward booking windows have become greatly reduced, meaning that most bookings occur within 6-8 weeks of travel or less; there just aren't that many forward bookings out there that are beyond the May/June timeframe and subject to huge schedule changes.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
FSDan
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:59 pm

enilria wrote:
tphuang wrote:
TW870 wrote:
As far as JFK-BOM goes, I am not as pessimistic as you were prior to the crisis. But now, I think all bets are off, and we simply do not have enough information to understand how this crisis will change the South Asian market. We have no idea what Emirates - and especially Qatar and Etihad - are going to look like after the crisis, and the shape of those carriers will hugely impact the niche that DL will be able to carve out of the New York-South Asia market.

The fact that JFK-BOM is canceled all the way out should be an indication that they don't intend to stay in a market that's obviously going to lose a lot of money through a time when they are having cash issues.

I do think this is an admission that BOM was not a great idea.


I don't think there's any reason to believe that JFK-BOM was ill-conceived at the time it was planned. As it is, the route has only been able to operate for a few months before global disaster hit. Not a great recipe for success on a ULH route... In order for the route to be successful, DL needed the economy to stay hot for a few more years. With cost reductions now needing to be made, it stands to reason that the most recently added and/or highest operating cost routes are first on the chopping block.

I will say that DL has had terrible luck getting the timing right for their nonstops to BOM - the first attempts were shortly before the Great Recession, and now shortly before COVID-19 and the associated economic fallout...
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FlyLEN2019
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:20 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
enilria wrote:

Y4 MLM-PDX JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0] SEP 0.3>0[0] OCT 0.3>0[0] NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0]
Y4 MLM-SEA JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0] SEP 0.3>0[0] OCT 0.3>0[0] NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0]
Y4 MLM-SMF JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0] SEP 0.3>0[0] OCT 0.3>0[0] NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0]


So far Y4 is continuing MLM-FAT, it looks like it is still bookable in their system. Interesting that it still remains.


The FAT-MLM service has existed for about 2.5 years with lots of success, and these cuts were new routes that were gonna be launched this summer, so Y4 decided to not launch the routes entirely.
 
umichman
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:40 pm

ADent wrote:
Thanks enilria.

I just don’t understand why all this much flying is still scheduled - esp when they are cutting flights the day of travel.


They've been loading April cuts over the past several weeks. The many day of travel cancellations over the past week were largely due to the fact that those cuts did not apply to the March schedule. You'll likely still be seeing close-in cancellations in April, but they shouldn't be nearly as bad since the schedule has already been pulled down pretty heavily.
 
B757capt
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:43 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
A lot of things wont come back as they were

Off the top of my head:

DL: BOS

B6: LGB

AA: JFK


And those are the easy ones to guess. Imagine the rest of the hubs as they start to shrink and disappear.
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Jo8338
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:56 am

Midwestindy wrote:
AA JFK reduced to practically nothing:

April 17th: 7 destinations & 19 total flights, no regional jets


It would make sense to consolidate all ops in gates 1-12 and close off the remaining terminal.
 
Jo8338
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:00 am

ericm2031 wrote:
Is the Eagle operation at LAX shutting down for April? I’m having trouble finding one that’s bookable. I know CP is shutting down but figured they would have gotten OO CR7s there at the very least.

That’s pretty big to not have a presence on some important routes like LAX-SFO/SJC/SMF/SAN, etc. I’m surprised they didn’t at least put some mainline on SFO-LAX.


It would make sense to shutdown the Eagles Nest for a while to save money on busses etc.
 
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Web500sjc
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:30 am

Jo8338 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
AA JFK reduced to practically nothing:

April 17th: 7 destinations & 19 total flights, no regional jets


It would make sense to consolidate all ops in gates 1-12 and close off the remaining terminal.



They Already shutdown T7 at JFK, and moved those flights to T8
Boiler Up!
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:33 am

Chuska wrote:
Thank God Enilria's program didn't meltdown with this one. And we still got it by daybreak Enilria..you rock!.


I always look forward t this post...but these past couple weeks have been tough to see. Thanks enilria!
 
PHXWRLD
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:47 am

I'm glad to see PHX receiving far fewer cuts than other AA hubs. It shows just how important PHX is to the world.
 
Boof02671
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:51 am

PHXWRLD wrote:
I'm glad to see PHX receiving far fewer cuts than other AA hubs. It shows just how important PHX is to the world.

It’s the smallest hub, bias much?

PHX is most definitely not important to the world. Lol
 
PHXWRLD
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:53 am

Boof02671 wrote:
PHXWRLD wrote:
I'm glad to see PHX receiving far fewer cuts than other AA hubs. It shows just how important PHX is to the world.

It’s the smallest hub, bias much?


What are you talking about, PHX is the third largest AA hub after DFW and CLT. It is also the third largest WN station after MDW and BWI, which I believe makes it the only US airport to host a top 3 hub for two of the US4
 
Boof02671
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:56 am

You are seriously misinformed PHL and ORD carry more passengers than PHX

https://www.statista.com/statistics/603 ... main-hubs/
 
Boof02671
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:59 am

Busiest Airports by Number of AA Passengers in 2018:

Dallas/Fort Worth (55.06 million)
Charlotte (40.33 million)
Miami (28.36 million)
Chicago O’Hare (27.55 million)
Philadelphia (21.09 million)
Phoenix (19.79 million)
Los Angeles (16.41 million)
Washington Reagan National (11.03 million)
New York LaGuardia (7.73 million)
New York John F. Kennedy (6.89 million)

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... e-numbers/

And in 2019 PHL had 500,000 more passengers on AA than PHX.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:26 am

FlyLEN2019 wrote:
FATFlyer wrote:
enilria wrote:

Y4 MLM-PDX JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0] SEP 0.3>0[0] OCT 0.3>0[0] NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0]
Y4 MLM-SEA JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0] SEP 0.3>0[0] OCT 0.3>0[0] NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0]
Y4 MLM-SMF JUL 0.3>0[0] AUG 0.3>0[0] SEP 0.3>0[0] OCT 0.3>0[0] NOV 0.3>0[0] DEC 0.3>0[0]


So far Y4 is continuing MLM-FAT, it looks like it is still bookable in their system. Interesting that it still remains.


The FAT-MLM service has existed for about 2.5 years with lots of success, and these cuts were new routes that were gonna be launched this summer, so Y4 decided to not launch the routes entirely.

Domestic routes at Fresno have taken huge cuts. So far flights to Mexico have not seen the same level of cuts.
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N383SW
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:33 am

PHXWRLD wrote:
Boof02671 wrote:
PHXWRLD wrote:
I'm glad to see PHX receiving far fewer cuts than other AA hubs. It shows just how important PHX is to the world.

It’s the smallest hub, bias much?


What are you talking about, PHX is the third largest AA hub after DFW and CLT. It is also the third largest WN station after MDW and BWI, which I believe makes it the only US airport to host a top 3 hub for two of the US4


Uhh re: WN, did you forget about DEN, DAL, and LAS? PHX is a mega station, however, it is not the third largest in the system. Not a dig at PHX at all but please make sure you are posting facts. Thank you!
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:56 am

Jo8338 wrote:
ericm2031 wrote:
Is the Eagle operation at LAX shutting down for April? I’m having trouble finding one that’s bookable. I know CP is shutting down but figured they would have gotten OO CR7s there at the very least.

That’s pretty big to not have a presence on some important routes like LAX-SFO/SJC/SMF/SAN, etc. I’m surprised they didn’t at least put some mainline on SFO-LAX.


It would make sense to shutdown the Eagles Nest for a while to save money on busses etc.


Yeah that seems like an easy way to save money right now. Alot of airlines will do this. Consolidation should be easy with all the cuts that have happened and will continue to happen. Closing the Eagles Nest would not only be welcomed by the few flyers but an easy way to save money.
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:11 am

umichman wrote:
DL really pulling back at MDW. DTW and MSP flights are gone for April leaving only 3 daily ATL flights. Wonder if it will survive as a DL station. FNT is down to 1 daily ATL flight for April (wouldn't be surprised if it loses all DL service like TOL).


DL seemed to be zealous in its attempt to keep as much of its ATL network intact as possible, but it's started to come apart somewhat this weekend. People are traveling only out of necessity -- not for work, unless it's related to fighting the virus, and certainly not for vacation, so you think they would've implemented a "survival" schedule that primarily links hubs to large markets, with secondary and small communities linked to the nearest hub by regional jets I really don't get why DL's running mainline flights from places like ATW and MDW to ATL -- they're practically empty, and without leisure-orientated southern flows, they're better off going to DTW and MSP. Same thing with empty 763 operating ATL-LAS, or longish secondary markets like ONT from ATL...
 
paulsaz
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:36 am

I'm sure the Eagles nest will be closing at least temporarily since LAX is losing all Eagle flights in May. (Subject to change)
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paulsaz
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:05 am

There is an interesting article on CNBC about airlines wanting to collude on routes with govt approval. It also mentions F9 is only going to fly 10% of their flights in April.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/consolidating-flights-to-us-cities-could-help-stem-airline-losses.html
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LJ
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:06 am

enilria wrote:
KFTG wrote:
Why is EK still flying to MCO?

In reality the whole airline is parked. Mistake?



No. The schedule refers to June 2020, not April or May.

EK DXB-MCO JUN 0>1.0[0.7]
 
KFTG
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:48 am

I guess more to the point, is EK optimistic enough about demand to justify reinstating MCO as early as June?
 
hpff
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:55 am

paulsaz wrote:
There is an interesting article on CNBC about airlines wanting to collude on routes with govt approval. It also mentions F9 is only going to fly 10% of their flights in April.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/consolidating-flights-to-us-cities-could-help-stem-airline-losses.html


US airline deregulation, 1978-2020.

There seem to be a great many cuts to Caribbean tourist destinations. I'm surprised Hawai'i isn't reflected as much as I thought it would be given that state's quarantine.
 
KFTG
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:06 am

Given the location of Hawaii, it is logical to maintain air service regardless of whatever local protocol they have in place.
Especially considering the large military presence and HNL's status as a hub to other US territories.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:26 pm

TW870 wrote:
Enilria you have mentioned this refund thing a couple of times and I am wondering about this too. Right now, people are losing their jobs left and right, and they are going to have a ton of cash locked up in dead airline reservations that they, at least for now, cannot get back. People are going to need that cash as a source of income. Thankfully, my job seems fine for now, but I have about $2K locked up in DL tickets. I will end up using that money on new tickets later on most likely, but many people won't if their economic situation changes significantly for the worse as a result of the crisis.

I think one of the next big questions is going to be what happens to all that cash locked up in cancelled non-refundable tickets.

It depends upon what you do. I have several tickets. Most are many weeks away, but one has already passed. They would let me get a travel credit. I waited until 72 hours before the flight as they require, and they operationally cancelled the flight as I expected. Their app told me I had been rebooked on a connection instead of a non-stop. Normally the app would give me the option of cancelling, but it only offered me the option to hit OK. Nice. So then I tried the app and website cancel process. Both failed with an error and they kept spamming me with a message that if I noshow they will hold the value of the flight as a credit. So I called and waited on hold forever, got an agent who tried to push me the same direction. I said REFUND. She said the rebook delayed my arrival by more an 90 minutes and sent me onward to "the refund department" which never was part of the process before. Then I was on hold again. Finally they picked up and went over everything again and pushed a credit again. I said refund. At the end they said "you will see a credit in 20-30 business days" which is, of course, crazy.

So, basically they have created a labyrinth in order to get people to just take the credit. It's cash preservation.

Meanwhile F9 asked people to take a $100 travel voucher to give up any option of a refund, and then cancelled 90% the next week. A lot of shenanigans going on. I imagine there will be some class action suits if the airlines don't file Ch11.
 
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enilria
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:35 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Yeah I didn't really think about it frontier and allegiant are in unique postions. Hard for frontier to cancel all those once or twice a week flights. Hard to reschedule the few people booked. They must be burning cash with so few cancellations. I am guessing they are working to purchase tickets on other carriers even though it's against their own policies we have seen them do it at small stations. Unusual situation they are in.

I'm wondering what they kept. I guess it is the daily DEN flights, or used to be daily?
EA CO AS wrote:
enilria wrote:
THIS IS A KEY DATE. The airlines cannot layoff people till October under the stimulus. October is when the airlines are going to rebuild their networks from the ground up.


Keep in mind this only applies to carriers that accept aid; at least one carrier has stated they're not sure they'll take federal aid because of the conditions attached. Also, while carriers cannot lay off/furlough anyone or reduce their rates of pay, they can and are cutting hours, which has the same net effect as a paycut. I'm sure you'll see some employees whose hours are reduced actively looking for work elsewhere, seeing the writing on the wall.

Sure, but I'm talking about when we will see what the future schedules will really look like. I also saw a comment from an airline saying they had to keep all their stations open for now. I'm not sure what that is driven by. I'm sure F9 is not doing that. I don't see how everybody won't take the stimulus. I think there is going to be some negotiation which drives the denials.
EA CO AS wrote:
TW870 wrote:
I think one of the next big questions is going to be what happens to all that cash locked up in cancelled non-refundable tickets.


Just about every airline's contract of carriage requires a refund be an option IF the flight is cancelled or if a schedule change exceeds a certain amount, usually greater than one or two hours from the original schedule. Considering that carriers are cancelling up to 70% or more of their operations, it's conceivable that most customers who are already booked would find themselves eligible for a refund.

Keep in mind, though, that over the past 5 years, forward booking windows have become greatly reduced, meaning that most bookings occur within 6-8 weeks of travel or less; there just aren't that many forward bookings out there that are beyond the May/June timeframe and subject to huge schedule changes.

Exactly, but they will do their best to prevent customers from doing this. See my prior post.
Boof02671 wrote:
PHXWRLD wrote:
I'm glad to see PHX receiving far fewer cuts than other AA hubs. It shows just how important PHX is to the world.

It’s the smallest hub, bias much?

PHX is most definitely not important to the world. Lol

I think PHX would be in big trouble right now in the normal world. I think people around the industry expected it to die in the next recession. OTOH, AZ is pretty low virus infection last I looked, so that could play a factor.
TWFlyGuy wrote:
Chuska wrote:
Thank God Enilria's program didn't meltdown with this one. And we still got it by daybreak Enilria..you rock!.


I always look forward t this post...but these past couple weeks have been tough to see. Thanks enilria!

I know. I'm crying on the inside...so many friends impacted. :(((((((
KFTG wrote:
Given the location of Hawaii, it is logical to maintain air service regardless of whatever local protocol they have in place.
Especially considering the large military presence and HNL's status as a hub to other US territories.

Traffic is down around 93% right now. I'm hearing military and National Guard is a lot of what remains. Maybe FEMA too.
 
ethernal
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:47 pm

kavok wrote:
I am actually surprised to see DL’s intra-hub flying being scaled back as much as it is. With a lot of “hub overflying” being cut, it would seem the hub-to-hub routes would be more valuable.

To use an example, with DL dropping the SNA-DTW nonstop flight, it would seem that having the DTW-MSP/SLC flights would be more critical to reroute the passengers on DTW-MSP/SLC-SNA (and to reroute other passengers whose nonstop flight was eliminated).

I know everything is trending down, but I would have thought intra-hub flying would remain fairly frequent to account for those new connections that are now needed. However, the update indicates most of the hub to hub routes are being significantly reduced as well.


Pretty simple answer... there are just so few passengers right now that the capacity isn't needed. While flights may have been cut by 60-70%, the remaining 30-40% flights are still at <30% load factor (these numbers - while estimates - match the 85-90% collapse in passengers reported by TSA data).

They are keeping hub-to-hub flights to the extent that it is needed to create some schedule cohesion / reasonable connection options.. beyond that, it's all excess.

I agree with the other poster that I am surprised that Delta hasn't more aggressively created a double-hop hub structure - i.e. limit destinations - except for trunk routes - to a single hub. For example, I don't think it makes sense for Delta to continue to fly ATL-PVD. They should fly PVD-DTW and then use DTW as a gateway to Delta's other hubs if required for connection purposes. But.. they still fly ATL-PVD once daily for some reason. I know Delta knows what they are doing, but just surprised in these weird times that Delta is trying to preserve - e.g., - Atlanta's destination count. It can't be for revenue management purposes because.. frankly there is no revenue right now.

Other insanities is Delta continuing to fly cross-country co-terminals like ATL-SJC or ATL-SNA. Don't get me wrong, I've flown ATL-SJC at least 100 times and love that route.. but surprised that - during these times - they continue to keep ATL-SJC and ATL-SNA alive when they could just consolidate traffic to ATL-SFO or ATL-LAX.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:31 pm

enilria wrote:
I also saw a comment from an airline saying they had to keep all their stations open for now. I'm not sure what that is driven by.



It’s another condition of the stimulus package; any carrier taking part in this must continue serving the same communities they flew to prior to the pandemic. The level of service can be drawn down, but the station must be kept open until at least 9/30/20.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
joeblow10
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:36 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
enilria wrote:
I also saw a comment from an airline saying they had to keep all their stations open for now. I'm not sure what that is driven by.



It’s another condition of the stimulus package; any carrier taking part in this must continue serving the same communities they flew to prior to the pandemic. The level of service can be drawn down, but the station must be kept open until at least 9/30/20.


So something I hadn’t thought about until now - doesn’t that make F9 (and other low frequency carriers, but especially Frontier) ineligible for the bailout money?

They’ve already axed service at a number of stations for April and May
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 3:45 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:
enilria wrote:
I also saw a comment from an airline saying they had to keep all their stations open for now. I'm not sure what that is driven by.



It’s another condition of the stimulus package; any carrier taking part in this must continue serving the same communities they flew to prior to the pandemic. The level of service can be drawn down, but the station must be kept open until at least 9/30/20.


So something I hadn’t thought about until now - doesn’t that make F9 (and other low frequency carriers, but especially Frontier) ineligible for the bailout money?

They’ve already axed service at a number of stations for April and May


I think there may be a clause in there allowing for drawdowns before 4/1, I’ll have to re-read it.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
chrisair
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:26 pm

enilria wrote:
I think PHX would be in big trouble right now in the normal world. I think people around the industry expected it to die in the next recession. OTOH, AZ is pretty low virus infection last I looked, so that could play a factor.


AZ has a low rate of testing, so of course the numbers will be low. The public health director in the state is actively discouraging "most people from being tested."

The number of people who've been infected is probably double or triple the reported number.
 
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:31 pm

chrisair wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think PHX would be in big trouble right now in the normal world. I think people around the industry expected it to die in the next recession. OTOH, AZ is pretty low virus infection last I looked, so that could play a factor.


AZ has a low rate of testing, so of course the numbers will be low. The public health director in the state is actively discouraging "most people from being tested."

The number of people who've been infected is probably double or triple the reported number.


That’s because something like 95% of people who were tested came up negative, so the guidance now is if you’re exhibiting mild symptoms just self-quarantine for 14 days.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
alasizon
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:03 pm

enilria wrote:
I think PHX would be in big trouble right now in the normal world. I think people around the industry expected it to die in the next recession. OTOH, AZ is pretty low virus infection last I looked, so that could play a factor.


Not denying PHX will look different on the back end of this, but it is important to note that PHX does have three of the top five yielding routes in the system and one more in the top 10 so it isn't going to go quite the way of Vegas.

PHX-HMO was reported as the #1 yield in the entire system followed by PHX-MAF and PHX-GDL was #4 or 5. There is good yield to be had in PHX when you use it for the Mountain West region.

My guess is overall flights will be flatish but gauge will be down and some of the LAX Eagle flying will be shifted to PHX to make more room in LAX long term for Mainline (remember the Eagle operation was supposed to move to T5 next year). However, that would require a strong recovery by early to mid 2021.
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FlyingElvii
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:18 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
djack wrote:
I guess my musing wonders what they believe to the strategy - protect nonexistent marketshare for trash yields and flights that bleed red or cut and run a limited schedule and save the cash on hand for the other end of this.


If they can't cut people or wage rates (and they can't before 9/30/2020, if they take bailout grants), their variable cost for operating a flight is fuel, Biscoffs, and a little maintenance cost from parts and fluids. May as well fly a few, to keep aircraft ready and pilots current.


From what I am hearing, expect ad-hoc substitutions of 175’s for bigger metal 2-3 days out, depending on loads, at least on UA. Plenty of flex in the schedules for pilots and crews, and they would rather put 30 in a 175 with first, than 30 on a 737. Cruel times, cruel measures...
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:19 pm

chrisair wrote:
enilria wrote:
I think PHX would be in big trouble right now in the normal world. I think people around the industry expected it to die in the next recession. OTOH, AZ is pretty low virus infection last I looked, so that could play a factor.


AZ has a low rate of testing, so of course the numbers will be low. The public health director in the state is actively discouraging "most people from being tested."

The number of people who've been infected is probably double or triple the reported number.

In Italy and other places, the testers are getting infected, and then they go on to infect others.
 
alasizon
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:20 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
djack wrote:
I guess my musing wonders what they believe to the strategy - protect nonexistent marketshare for trash yields and flights that bleed red or cut and run a limited schedule and save the cash on hand for the other end of this.


If they can't cut people or wage rates (and they can't before 9/30/2020, if they take bailout grants), their variable cost for operating a flight is fuel, Biscoffs, and a little maintenance cost from parts and fluids. May as well fly a few, to keep aircraft ready and pilots current.


From what I am hearing, expect ad-hoc substitutions of 175’s for bigger metal 2-3 days out, depending on loads, at least on UA. Plenty of flex in the schedules for pilots and crews, and they would rather put 30 in a 175 with first, than 30 on a 737. Cruel times, cruel measures...


I highly doubt UA would do that very often. You end up eating costs for both Mainline and Regional personnel, you frustrate your passengers as they get a "your flight has been cancelled" notification and then you end up with aircraft out of position for their next leg.
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Re: OAG Changes 3/29/2020: Meltdown

Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:13 pm

EA CO AS wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
EA CO AS wrote:


It’s another condition of the stimulus package; any carrier taking part in this must continue serving the same communities they flew to prior to the pandemic. The level of service can be drawn down, but the station must be kept open until at least 9/30/20.


So something I hadn’t thought about until now - doesn’t that make F9 (and other low frequency carriers, but especially Frontier) ineligible for the bailout money?

They’ve already axed service at a number of stations for April and May


I think there may be a clause in there allowing for drawdowns before 4/1, I’ll have to re-read it.


Here's what it says:

The Secretary of Transportation is authorized to require, to the extent reasonable and practicable, an air carrier receiving loans and loan guarantees under section 4003 to maintain scheduled air transportation service as the Secretary of Transportation deems necessary to ensure services to any point served by that carrier before March 1, 2020

It may be that F9 doesn't intend to participate in the government programs if they're dropping cities.
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Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group

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