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Sokes
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Future demand for widebodies

Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:22 pm

Please let's not focus too much on Corona. This is a four year discussion.

When the B767 was designed, engines were so weak that a twin for good range had to be reduced to 7 abreast size.
A330-200 was long popular as A330-300 didn't have the desired range.
All widebodies for sale now can serve even very long flights. Older planes can be used for flights below eight hours, even six hours.
Freighter conversion for B777 starts with -300ER, not with an earlier model.
https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/f ... programme/
An old B777-300 is good enough to fly Europe-Arabian Gulf. Planes with range become available to feed the pigs. Better to directly focus on the -300ER for conversion.

Estimate what needs replacement from 2020 including 2023 (four years):
For B767 I can't find accurate information. It seems they are used for 28 years or so. I ignore the B757.
For A330 and B777 I assume 24 years till replacement.

A300/ A310: Total 300 in service
All A340 and all A330 younger than 2000: 312

All B747-100/ -200/ -300/ -400: 358
B767: 192
B777: 261 planes younger than 2000

MD11: 118

This is a rough estimate. It assumes that old freighters get replaced with new equipment, which won't be the case.
Till 2014 there are around 1823 planes to be replaced which are MD11s, B747s (not -8), A300/ A310/ A340, B767 older than 28 years, B777 and A330 older than 24 years still in service.
1800 planes/ 4 years = 450 planes/ year.
That would require 35-40 widebodies / month.

Obviously many B747-400 will remain in freight service. At the same time there may be growth.
The big unknown is the A321XLR. If transatlantic and Europe till India shifts to A321 there may not be that much demand.
I guess unfreedom of the air to Arabian Gulf/ India ensures widebodies. But for transatlantic?

After 2024, why would airlines want to replace widebody equipment? Age related replacements will still be required, but why not to fly a B777-300ER as long as possible? There won't be A340s or other uneconomical widebodies to be replaced.
How much retirements for spare parts?


Explanation for calculation:

Airbus:
https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/ ... eries.html :
as of Feb.20:
A300/ A310: 300 in service
A330/ A340/ A350: 2034 in service of 2230 delivered

377 A340 were delivered to customers. 131 A330 were delivered till 1999. From these 508 planes 196 planes are already retired. 312 planes still need replacement.


Boeing:
B747:
"There were 491 Boeing 747 aircraft in airline service as of February 2020, comprising 10 747-100s, 20 747-200s, 2 747-300s, 326 747-400s and 133 747-8s."
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_B ... _operators which in turn has planespotters as source
So 358 B747-100/ -200/ -300/ -400 to be replaced.

B757:
"Image
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_75 ... deliveries
If we assume planes are in service 28 years all planes between 1991 and 1995 have to be retired till 2014 = 282 planes
B757 are most likely be replaced by A231. I shall ignore them. One can argue that one should add 100 widebodies for replacement.

B777:
Image
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_B ... deliveries

261 planes delivered till 2000

B767:
Image
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_76 ... deliveries
I assume B767s are used 28 years.
All B767 younger than 28 years in 2024 = estimated retirement till then are deliveries from 1991- 1995: 192


MD 11:
"As of July 2019, the worldwide fleet of MD-11s totals 118 aircraft in commercial service with cargo operators FedEx Express (55), UPS Airlines (37), Lufthansa Cargo (12), Western Global Airlines (11) and other operators with fewer aircraft."
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell ... #Operators, original source is flight international
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:02 pm

Sokes wrote:
The big unknown is the A321XLR. If transatlantic and Europe till India shifts to A321 there may not be that much demand.
I guess unfreedom of the air to Arabian Gulf/ India ensures widebodies. But for transatlantic?

After 2024, why would airlines want to replace widebody equipment?


There are lots, and lots, and lots of intercontinental routes flown today that exceed 321XLR range adjusted for heat, elevation, headwinds, and diversion airports. Really. Check route maps of AA/UA/DL/BA/KL/LH/JL/NH/QF/NZ/KE/EK...
 
Sokes
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:12 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
Sokes wrote:
The big unknown is the A321XLR. If transatlantic and Europe till India shifts to A321 there may not be that much demand.
I guess unfreedom of the air to Arabian Gulf/ India ensures widebodies. But for transatlantic?

After 2024, why would airlines want to replace widebody equipment?


There are lots, and lots, and lots of intercontinental routes flown today that exceed 321XLR range adjusted for heat, elevation, headwinds, and diversion airports. Really. Check route maps of AA/UA/DL/BA/KL/LH/JL/NH/QF/NZ/KE/EK...


But it may be a good enough plane for New York to Europe.
A321XLR range 4700nm/ 8700km.
New York to Athens is 4290nmi/ 7950 km. Too far.
New York to Budapest is 3800nmi/ 7400km. I believe o.k.

Transatlantic seats/ year in 2015: 44 million seats.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatla ... resent_day

50 million seats is 25 million seats/ direction. 25 million seats/ 365 days is around 70.000 seats/ direction and day.
70.000 seats/ 140 (seats/ A321) = 500 A321

Now we only need to find an airport.


I was wondering about freighters. 100 B747-400F (not converted) are younger than 1999. They will stay for a long time. Freighters which are most of the time in the air will be new. Rarely used freighters will be old/ converted. But will freighters which have medium usage be new or converted? Why to take the action to convert a B777-300ER. It's a good enough plane for passenger transport. Why to replace?
Do freighters have longer intervals in between inspections, e.g. for engines?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
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Antaras
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:35 am

Just wait and see how the market will react with the 779 when it enters commercial service.

If carriers consider the 779 is a good A388/747 replacement, a new corner of market will be opened with major players such as the introduced 779 or the rumored A350-1100/-2000.

Otherwise, RIP Boeing.
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F27500
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:18 am

Airlines will use this current situation to start flying even smaller planes (than 757s, A320s and 737s) across the Atlantic now, i'll bet. If a CRJ could make it across, I bet a few would try it !
 
jfk777
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:41 am

This crisis will see the end of many 767 as AA has already retired their fleet. Delta has a huge 767 fleet which could get partially retired, their problem is what do you replace them with ? DL has a huge A330 fleet and more on the way.

United's 767 fleet has recently been upgraded with Polaris and new interiors on many planes so they will be around for a while, these planes also fly a great niche for UA to Heathrow from Newark and ORD.

Air Canada's 767 have already been moved to secondary roles, many with Rouge, so their end could be soon.

Many 767 fly for ANA & JAL, they will probably soldier on for several years as some are only middle age.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:01 pm

The big unknown is corporate travel. Will it rebound rapidly or drop like a rock stay near COVID19 levels? Two ways to put it, all the shutdown production needs to be restarted, new deals need to be closed, all hands on deck, a lot of corporate travel. Video conferencing technology is used for many things, no need to be onsite, essential travel got redefined, corps want to conserve cash, travel may not be a top priority.

If there is no rebound in business travel, the range becomes an important factor than floor space.
All posts are just opinions.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:49 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
The big unknown is corporate travel. Will it rebound rapidly or drop like a rock stay near COVID19 levels? Two ways to put it, all the shutdown production needs to be restarted, new deals need to be closed, all hands on deck, a lot of corporate travel. Video conferencing technology is used for many things, no need to be onsite, essential travel got redefined, corps want to conserve cash, travel may not be a top priority.

If there is no rebound in business travel, the range becomes an important factor than floor space.


Suppressed demand for new jets thru 2025. More so on widebody jets than single aisle. Estimated Airbus producing 55 x A320s per month. Boeing 30 x 737MAX. if and when cleared for RTS.

No RTS clearance, then it's a "Houston..we have a problem"!! scenario.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... -forecast/
 
VSMUT
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:51 pm

Antaras wrote:
Just wait and see how the market will react with the 779 when it enters commercial service.

If carriers consider the 779 is a good A388/747 replacement, a new corner of market will be opened with major players such as the introduced 779 or the rumored A350-1100/-2000.

Otherwise, RIP Boeing.


Even if they do replace A380s and 747s with the 777-9, how much will it really save the program? Looking at A380 operators that don't already have the 777-9 on order and haven't already planned to phase it out with other means, leaves you with a mere 57 aircraft (30 of which belong to current or future A350 operators and in numbers too small to justify a unique type). Of the 747-400 you have probably less than 20 yet to have a replacement assigned at an airline that can afford new-build planes once this crisis is over. Of the 747-8, just 36 are in service in total. The VLA market is pretty much accounted for already.
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:38 pm

Whether or not it was uber-boom years during the 'teens is the relevance of the current crisis. I am suspecting that is somewhat the case. Boeing was but likely is no longer capable of producing the 797 which may be in the dust bins of bits and bytes. A competent MAX and 797 should have been a winning hand. About all Boeing can do at this point is make the 787 cheaper, maybe a model lighter, and get the MAX back in the air. The market will sort out the 330neo and 350 models, Airbus can somewhat coast on these. The 320 gives them a lot of slack.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
Sokes
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 2:38 pm

Why so much pessimism about B777-9? Some city pairs may justify bigger planes than in use today, but not A380 big.
And than I wonder about it's potential as freighter.
Why are there no more combis today?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
sabby
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:15 pm

Sokes wrote:
Why so much pessimism about B777-9? Some city pairs may justify bigger planes than in use today, but not A380 big.
And than I wonder about it's potential as freighter.
Why are there no more combis today?

CapEx + low fuel cost. There are no new order for A380s. Airlines who have A390 but can benefit from downsizing to 779 would rather fly the A380 at 20% empty, especially given the all time low oil prices than fork out hundreds of millions for a new aircraft. It is not just 779 though, A35K will get hit too and I think a lot of A359 and 789 would get deferred for a few years. We still don't have any idea of the full impact after the current situation ends.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:17 pm

Agreed. I find the pessimism regarding the 779 as humorous and fairly ridiculous. The plane is still in flight testing. :).

History has shown some aircraft exceed market expectations and go on to sell very well (77W, A330), and some are underwhelming (A340, MD-11).

The 779 meets a necessary market niche at the top. It remains to be seen how it will ultimately perform. Until that is known negative or positive assessments are pure speculation.
707 717 727 72S 737 733 737-700 747 757 753 767-300 764 A319 A320 DC-9-10 DC-9-30 DC-9-50, MD-82 MD-88 MD-90 DC-10-10 DC-10-40 F-100
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:49 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Agreed. I find the pessimism regarding the 779 as humorous and fairly ridiculous. The plane is still in flight testing. :).

History has shown some aircraft exceed market expectations and go on to sell very well (77W, A330), and some are underwhelming (A340, MD-11).

The 779 meets a necessary market niche at the top. It remains to be seen how it will ultimately perform. Until that is known negative or positive assessments are pure speculation.


I don't think the pessimism is misplaced, while I don't think it will be a disaster, it's a perfectly valid question to ask how big a market there really is for it, as smaller aircraft are more flexible. The A350 and 787 will eat/have eaten a lot of market that otherwise may have gone to the 777X.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:55 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
Agreed. I find the pessimism regarding the 779 as humorous and fairly ridiculous. The plane is still in flight testing. :).

History has shown some aircraft exceed market expectations and go on to sell very well (77W, A330), and some are underwhelming (A340, MD-11).

The 779 meets a necessary market niche at the top. It remains to be seen how it will ultimately perform. Until that is known negative or positive assessments are pure speculation.


But...isn't that what A.Net is all about? I do not think that there are any airline CEO's or Fleet Planners that are A.Net members to give an exact answer.

Some will be right...some will be wrong. All things before the Wuhan virus the future was quite rosy. Now in the middle of this pandemic the future not so rosy.

There will be, if not cancellations, definite deferrals on all widebodies. Hell, there is no definite certification or EIS on the B779 yet.

But..that is only my speculation here.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:21 pm

jfk777 wrote:
This crisis will see the end of many 767 as AA has already retired their fleet. Delta has a huge 767 fleet which could get partially retired, their problem is what do you replace them with ? DL has a huge A330 fleet and more on the way.

United's 767 fleet has recently been upgraded with Polaris and new interiors on many planes so they will be around for a while, these planes also fly a great niche for UA to Heathrow from Newark and ORD.

Air Canada's 767 have already been moved to secondary roles, many with Rouge, so their end could be soon.


frmrCapCadet wrote:
About all Boeing can do at this point is make the 787 cheaper, maybe a model lighter, and get the MAX back in the air. The market will sort out the 330neo and 350 models, Airbus can somewhat coast on these.

COVID-19 might just be the the break the A338 was waiting for. After this crisis has passed, airlines could be looking for a replacement that is relatively efficient, has ample capacity and range to allow flexible route assignments, can carry a decent cargo load, and most importantly -- does not require a huge CapEx..... :airplane: .....

Image
https://airbus-h.assetsadobe2.com/is/im ... 1&qlt=85,0


They just need to clear out the T7000's and other bugs first. Say ca 2022 A.C. :?: *(after COVID) :wink2:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Opus99
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:48 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Agreed. I find the pessimism regarding the 779 as humorous and fairly ridiculous. The plane is still in flight testing. :).

History has shown some aircraft exceed market expectations and go on to sell very well (77W, A330), and some are underwhelming (A340, MD-11).

The 779 meets a necessary market niche at the top. It remains to be seen how it will ultimately perform. Until that is known negative or positive assessments are pure speculation.


I don't think the pessimism is misplaced, while I don't think it will be a disaster, it's a perfectly valid question to ask how big a market there really is for it, as smaller aircraft are more flexible. The A350 and 787 will eat/have eaten a lot of market that otherwise may have gone to the 777X.

And we won’t know till it flies. A lot of people seem to act as though the A380 and the 777x are the same size aircraft. And they really are not. The A380 is HUGE. Many many many more airlines can fill a 777x than the number that can fill a 380. The 777x isn’t that much bigger than the 77W if you actually think about it.
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:36 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Agreed. I find the pessimism regarding the 779 as humorous and fairly ridiculous. The plane is still in flight testing. :).

History has shown some aircraft exceed market expectations and go on to sell very well (77W, A330), and some are underwhelming (A340, MD-11).

The 779 meets a necessary market niche at the top. It remains to be seen how it will ultimately perform. Until that is known negative or positive assessments are pure speculation.


I don't think the pessimism is misplaced, while I don't think it will be a disaster, it's a perfectly valid question to ask how big a market there really is for it, as smaller aircraft are more flexible. The A350 and 787 will eat/have eaten a lot of market that otherwise may have gone to the 777X.


I see your point to an extent but I think much will depend on the actual performance of the 779. Again, I don't think many expected the A330 or the 77W to perform as well as they did. Once airlines gradually became fully aware of their capabilities they sold like hot cakes.

The 779 may be a dud or it may be outstanding. Until flight testing is completed and real data is out there none of us know. If it exceeds expectations i think it will sell very well. Or it could be another MD-11.

I guess time will tell.
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Special
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:10 pm

Opus99 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Agreed. I find the pessimism regarding the 779 as humorous and fairly ridiculous. The plane is still in flight testing. :).

History has shown some aircraft exceed market expectations and go on to sell very well (77W, A330), and some are underwhelming (A340, MD-11).

The 779 meets a necessary market niche at the top. It remains to be seen how it will ultimately perform. Until that is known negative or positive assessments are pure speculation.


I don't think the pessimism is misplaced, while I don't think it will be a disaster, it's a perfectly valid question to ask how big a market there really is for it, as smaller aircraft are more flexible. The A350 and 787 will eat/have eaten a lot of market that otherwise may have gone to the 777X.

And we won’t know till it flies. A lot of people seem to act as though the A380 and the 777x are the same size aircraft. And they really are not. The A380 is HUGE. Many many many more airlines can fill a 777x than the number that can fill a 380. The 777x isn’t that much bigger than the 77W if you actually think about it.


Indeed. A lot of posts I see assume the 777X is in the same size category as the A380/748.
 
Jetport
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:31 pm

frmrCapCadet wrote:
Whether or not it was uber-boom years during the 'teens is the relevance of the current crisis. I am suspecting that is somewhat the case. Boeing was but likely is no longer capable of producing the 797 which may be in the dust bins of bits and bytes. A competent MAX and 797 should have been a winning hand. About all Boeing can do at this point is make the 787 cheaper, maybe a model lighter, and get the MAX back in the air. The market will sort out the 330neo and 350 models, Airbus can somewhat coast on these. The 320 gives them a lot of slack.


Coast on the A330, what?? C'mon, with Covid 19 the A330 is toast, unless the Consortium is willing to make it at 6 a year like the 747-8!
 
JoergAtADN
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:55 pm

ElroyJetson wrote:
I see your point to an extent but I think much will depend on the actual performance of the 779. Again, I don't think many expected the A330 or the 77W to perform as well as they did. Once airlines gradually became fully aware of their capabilities they sold like hot cakes.


But if the 779 proves, that there is a market for planes of this cagegory, Airbus would launch the an A350 stretch of the same size - but with significiant less weight. With an engine of the same generation, it would kill the 779 immediately.
 
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william
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:00 pm

JoergAtADN wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
I see your point to an extent but I think much will depend on the actual performance of the 779. Again, I don't think many expected the A330 or the 77W to perform as well as they did. Once airlines gradually became fully aware of their capabilities they sold like hot cakes.


But if the 779 proves, that there is a market for planes of this cagegory, Airbus would launch the an A350 stretch of the same size - but with significiant less weight. With an engine of the same generation, it would kill the 779 immediately.


If it was only so easy.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:16 pm

Opus99 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
ElroyJetson wrote:
Agreed. I find the pessimism regarding the 779 as humorous and fairly ridiculous. The plane is still in flight testing. :).

History has shown some aircraft exceed market expectations and go on to sell very well (77W, A330), and some are underwhelming (A340, MD-11).

The 779 meets a necessary market niche at the top. It remains to be seen how it will ultimately perform. Until that is known negative or positive assessments are pure speculation.


I don't think the pessimism is misplaced, while I don't think it will be a disaster, it's a perfectly valid question to ask how big a market there really is for it, as smaller aircraft are more flexible. The A350 and 787 will eat/have eaten a lot of market that otherwise may have gone to the 777X.

And we won’t know till it flies. A lot of people seem to act as though the A380 and the 777x are the same size aircraft. And they really are not. The A380 is HUGE. Many many many more airlines can fill a 777x than the number that can fill a 380. The 777x isn’t that much bigger than the 77W if you actually think about it.


The 779 is still a larger aircraft in an era when smaller aircraft are more popular, in the aftermath of Covid-19 airlines may cut back on larger aircraft. The question isn't how many airlines could fill a 779, but rather for how many is it better to use the A350 and 787 instead.
 
Jomar777
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:35 pm

LH-wise, the main players will be the A350 and the B787. But this does not mean that the A321XLR, the A330Neo and the B779 will not have space. They will still sell in good numbers and will find space on the airlines. The main impact will be felt on the A380 and B748 which will more than likely disappear as and when those frames get retired with no new frames coming to the market. The B779 will fill their gap as much as an A350 and B787 will fill the B767 and older A330 gap (that was the plan anyway - at least for Boeing: to replace the B767 by the B787 and cease the B757 production with no heir to the product.).
The question mark is the A330Neo which somehow competes with the A350 within Airbus in some aspects. The A321XLR is a different proposition and will (or not...) create their own space on the market with the USP of being a LH NB airliner.
The A330Neo benefits the fact that the A350-800 never actually got out to the market but for how long? That will depend on how Airbus markets the plane compared to their direct competitor. Same would happen on the SH, for example, if Airbus decided right now to produce an A220-500 and pitch it directly against their A320...
 
Special
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:46 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

I don't think the pessimism is misplaced, while I don't think it will be a disaster, it's a perfectly valid question to ask how big a market there really is for it, as smaller aircraft are more flexible. The A350 and 787 will eat/have eaten a lot of market that otherwise may have gone to the 777X.

And we won’t know till it flies. A lot of people seem to act as though the A380 and the 777x are the same size aircraft. And they really are not. The A380 is HUGE. Many many many more airlines can fill a 777x than the number that can fill a 380. The 777x isn’t that much bigger than the 77W if you actually think about it.


The 779 is still a larger aircraft in an era when smaller aircraft are more popular, in the aftermath of Covid-19 airlines may cut back on larger aircraft. The question isn't how many airlines could fill a 779, but rather for how many is it better to use the A350 and 787 instead.


I see what you're saying but by the time the 779 is ready and enters service (late 2021 I assume), the industry should have or be close to recovering from the impacts of COVID-19 and there are multiple routes the 779 would be ideal over the A350/787 for its pax + cargo capabilities - routes out of LHR for example in a post-A380/747 production era
 
Aither
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:47 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
dtw2hyd wrote:
The big unknown is corporate travel. Will it rebound rapidly or drop like a rock stay near COVID19 levels? Two ways to put it, all the shutdown production needs to be restarted, new deals need to be closed, all hands on deck, a lot of corporate travel. Video conferencing technology is used for many things, no need to be onsite, essential travel got redefined, corps want to conserve cash, travel may not be a top priority.

If there is no rebound in business travel, the range becomes an important factor than floor space.


Suppressed demand for new jets thru 2025. More so on widebody jets than single aisle. Estimated Airbus producing 55 x A320s per month. Boeing 30 x 737MAX. if and when cleared for RTS.

No RTS clearance, then it's a "Houston..we have a problem"!! scenario.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremyboga ... -forecast/


haha ! Industry - whatever industry - commentators are always the same : before the crisis they underestimate the crisis. During the crisis they underestimate the recovery. After the crisis / during the recovery they overestimate the business to come. It always happen like this. When you have no clue of what's going to happen, people rely on "emotional forecasts". The risk with these guys is self fulfilling prophecies. Fortunately enough the aviation industry so far has been relatively immune of big gurus.

Regarding corporate travel I'm quite optimistic:
- First video conferencing is not a new thing - but true there will be some negative impact.
- Second, and way more importantly, what we see happening is corporations looking at diversifying their supply chains. Part of it will be bringing things back home but get real, a lot will stay in China, plus a lot will move from China to other countries/regions of the world. The trend is to manufacture closer to the customer as well. So we can expect for example smaller manufactures, but more and in more locations. This is good for business travel, and in particular for airlines like Emirates having global presence.
Last edited by Aither on Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Scotron12
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:52 pm

Jetport wrote:
frmrCapCadet wrote:
Whether or not it was uber-boom years during the 'teens is the relevance of the current crisis. I am suspecting that is somewhat the case. Boeing was but likely is no longer capable of producing the 797 which may be in the dust bins of bits and bytes. A competent MAX and 797 should have been a winning hand. About all Boeing can do at this point is make the 787 cheaper, maybe a model lighter, and get the MAX back in the air. The market will sort out the 330neo and 350 models, Airbus can somewhat coast on these. The 320 gives them a lot of slack.


Coast on the A330, what?? C'mon, with Covid 19 the A330 is toast, unless the Consortium is willing to make it at 6 a year like the 747-8!


Thank you for making me laugh. Airbus even now plans A330NEO production at 3.5/month. Which isn't bad given the current situation. Yes, there are carriers that have made or will defer A330NEO orders, but that's to be expected in this climate.

So far, I don't see the A330NEO dying anytime soon, as much as some would like. :duck:
 
Aither
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:11 pm

Antaras wrote:
Just wait and see how the market will react with the 779 when it enters commercial service.

If carriers consider the 779 is a good A388/747 replacement, a new corner of market will be opened with major players such as the introduced 779 or the rumored A350-1100/-2000.

Otherwise, RIP Boeing.


Even if the 779 is technically good there must be a need for this segment of the market.
The needs for this segment is more driven by the airline and hubs consolidation than volumes of traffic.
Unfortunately a lot of the long haul traffic remains in the hand of national carriers who hopefully will be saved. So less traffic + limited consolidation = less need for very big aircraft.

That's the pessimistic side. On the optimistic side airlines will (re)discover the cash cow routes : forget about all these shitty routes to secondary cities, bring the volume to your main hub(s), be strong where the market is strong to compensate for the shrinking network. And I think, that's why we will see airlines keeping their A380s. This is a cash machine which is used primarily on the markets that should be the first to recover. So it's very important to keep the capacity there.
Never trust the obvious
 
Opus99
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:28 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

I don't think the pessimism is misplaced, while I don't think it will be a disaster, it's a perfectly valid question to ask how big a market there really is for it, as smaller aircraft are more flexible. The A350 and 787 will eat/have eaten a lot of market that otherwise may have gone to the 777X.

And we won’t know till it flies. A lot of people seem to act as though the A380 and the 777x are the same size aircraft. And they really are not. The A380 is HUGE. Many many many more airlines can fill a 777x than the number that can fill a 380. The 777x isn’t that much bigger than the 77W if you actually think about it.


The 779 is still a larger aircraft in an era when smaller aircraft are more popular, in the aftermath of Covid-19 airlines may cut back on larger aircraft. The question isn't how many airlines could fill a 779, but rather for how many is it better to use the A350 and 787 instead.

There are many reasons to go for the 779 and many reasons not to right. Revenue generation with more seats and of course let’s not forget cargo cabalistes which the 77W has shown itself in this period of covid-19. And demand will come back eventually. It will take time, there are so many airlines that draw fantastic benefits from the 779 right. But the A359 and 787 are low risk which is also a big factor as to why they sell well due to stellar efficiency and They’re easy to fill up. Smaller narrow bodies just work easily but you can also short change yourself if you can operate 779s optimally which many airlines can of course at varying levels with regards to the number of 779s you can operate optimally . At Air France they call 77W their cash cows and they probably thought bigger was better so they went for the 380 that bit them badly so now they’re risk averse and you can see it by ordering 359s to replace the 380 but an airline like Air France CAN operate the 779 optimally, but chose not to take the risk for NOW I’m assuming to get their books in order. But for the 77W replacement, I hope they look at it in the future. I believe airlines that can operate the 77W optimally in normal conditions can do the same for the 779. The 359 and 787s are not always optimal but they’re always lower risk. One could also argue that for the 380 but the higher the risk the more you stand to lose and the 380 risk compared the 779 risk I think is quite substantial.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:03 am

This could really cause a problem for the B777X. Yes I know that it shares the same MTOW as the B77W, but it will still be a hard to fill plane, and it will be a plane that forces one to have a high premium cabin (an upside will be its belly cargo capabilities). That said, the B779 will have a niche, but it may be a smaller niche as the B789 and B78X are better suited for its missions (and the B789 is already doing real-world ULR missions).

The A339 isn't selling well now, BUT it should start rolling in orders as it's time for older A330s to be replaced, as there are A330s that are running out of hours. As for the A338, it may have too much range, when one is more likely to have 6-10 hour missions on the A330neo.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 5:25 am

Devilfish wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
This crisis will see the end of many 767 as AA has already retired their fleet. Delta has a huge 767 fleet which could get partially retired, their problem is what do you replace them with ? DL has a huge A330 fleet and more on the way.

United's 767 fleet has recently been upgraded with Polaris and new interiors on many planes so they will be around for a while, these planes also fly a great niche for UA to Heathrow from Newark and ORD.

Air Canada's 767 have already been moved to secondary roles, many with Rouge, so their end could be soon.


frmrCapCadet wrote:
About all Boeing can do at this point is make the 787 cheaper, maybe a model lighter, and get the MAX back in the air. The market will sort out the 330neo and 350 models, Airbus can somewhat coast on these.

COVID-19 might just be the the break the A338 was waiting for. After this crisis has passed, airlines could be looking for a replacement that is relatively efficient, has ample capacity and range to allow flexible route assignments, can carry a decent cargo load, and most importantly -- does not require a huge CapEx..... :airplane: .....

Image
https://airbus-h.assetsadobe2.com/is/im ... 1&qlt=85,0


They just need to clear out the T7000's and other bugs first. Say ca 2022 A.C. :?: *(after COVID) :wink2:


The problem is that the A338 came too soon and too...late.
Too late that most carriers who need an A332-replacement already found their ideal airframe (788, 789 or some even decided to jump on the A339).
Too soon that most A332s are too young (a bunch is younger than 15 yo), and carriers may wait for a few more years to order the A338 (or seeking for a better choice).
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enzo011
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:27 am

There has been talks of a slowdown for widebodies orders for a time before the corona crises. All of the programs will be suffering from a lack of demand in the coming years if the crises becomes prolonged, and if you were facing cancellations before it started I cannot be anything but pessimistic for the short to medium term for the 777X and A35K sales.

Bad luck with timing has been the scourge of many products and companies and if you were to think of the worse time for the 777X it would be to try and claw back time lost for delays for an EIS as soon as possible during a worldwide health crises.
 
ACA772LR
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:30 am

Does anyone think the LH/Swiss A340s will survive this?
 
Sokes
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:19 am

enzo011 wrote:
Bad luck with timing has been the scourge of many products and companies and if you were to think of the worse time for the 777X it would be to try and claw back time lost for delays for an EIS as soon as possible during a worldwide health crises.


That's true if a competitor offers a similar product. One can argue the other way round: If orders start coming only after two years any engine troubles can be fixed till then. By then it will be known to be a reliable aircraft. Boeing can charge higher prices.

I anyway don't understand how OEM sell planes beyond launch customers. Research can't be planned. A scientist can be lucky and find a good solution within months. Another scientist with the same intelligence chooses another method and can't succeed in years. Well, no shortage of planes that didn't enter service with engines performing worse than promised. No shortage of planes performing better than promised either.

Imagine Boeing hadn't sold B777-300ER in advance. How much airlines would have been willing to pay? There may be fewer A340s, more A330s instead.
Is there any economic advantage in early bookings?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:08 pm

Aither wrote:
Antaras wrote:
Just wait and see how the market will react with the 779 when it enters commercial service.

If carriers consider the 779 is a good A388/747 replacement, a new corner of market will be opened with major players such as the introduced 779 or the rumored A350-1100/-2000.

Otherwise, RIP Boeing.


Even if the 779 is technically good there must be a need for this segment of the market.
The needs for this segment is more driven by the airline and hubs consolidation than volumes of traffic.
Unfortunately a lot of the long haul traffic remains in the hand of national carriers who hopefully will be saved. So less traffic + limited consolidation = less need for very big aircraft.

That's the pessimistic side. On the optimistic side airlines will (re)discover the cash cow routes : forget about all these shitty routes to secondary cities, bring the volume to your main hub(s), be strong where the market is strong to compensate for the shrinking network. And I think, that's why we will see airlines keeping their A380s. This is a cash machine which is used primarily on the markets that should be the first to recover. So it's very important to keep the capacity there.

Different countries will emerge from the crisis at different timelines, and when they come out of it, it will take quite a bit of time for travel to get back to where it was. People are either not working, or making far less than what they should have been making, so demand for non essential goods and services will also take time to really hit their stride.

There will be airline casualties, and this is something that will work in favor of the big airlines who will no doubt be getting assistance from their respective governments. This year is going to be a brutal one for the travel industry.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:02 pm

aemoreira1981 wrote:
As for the A338, it may have too much range, when one is more likely to have 6-10 hour missions on the A330neo.

This is why I think that the A338 should be kept at the 242T MTOW. And what if carriers who do need the range couldn't quite spring for the 789 or A359 but still need the lift?


Antaras wrote:
The problem is that the A338 came too soon and too...late.
Too late that most carriers who need an A332-replacement already found their ideal airframe (788, 789 or some even decided to jump on the A339).
Too soon that most A332s are too young (a bunch is younger than 15 yo), and carriers may wait for a few more years to order the A338 (or seeking for a better choice).

What about many other airlines who would need to cut capacity and downgauge due to this crisis, but have to maintain frequency nonetheless? Folding is not an option so for them, the price of providing that service with the current choices may be a little too steep soon after emerging from this pandemic. And there's no better alternative on the horizon despite what OEMs have been promising. Of course, there would be plenty of used 787s and undelivered A359s looking for new homes in the wake of this turmoil -- question is if those would be cheap enough. :twocents:
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Vladex
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:14 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

I don't think the pessimism is misplaced, while I don't think it will be a disaster, it's a perfectly valid question to ask how big a market there really is for it, as smaller aircraft are more flexible. The A350 and 787 will eat/have eaten a lot of market that otherwise may have gone to the 777X.

And we won’t know till it flies. A lot of people seem to act as though the A380 and the 777x are the same size aircraft. And they really are not. The A380 is HUGE. Many many many more airlines can fill a 777x than the number that can fill a 380. The 777x isn’t that much bigger than the 77W if you actually think about it.


The 779 is still a larger aircraft in an era when smaller aircraft are more popular, in the aftermath of Covid-19 airlines may cut back on larger aircraft. The question isn't how many airlines could fill a 779, but rather for how many is it better to use the A350 and 787 instead.


Do you live on the same planet as I do? Last time I checked it was the smaller aircraft that were dying off not the larger ones. Also the engines will be getting larger in the future which will favor even bigger aircraft. There may be fewer of them which is good because the numbers today are already enough or too many.
 
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enzo011
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:40 pm

Devilfish wrote:
This is why I think that the A338 should be kept at the 242T MTOW. And what if carriers who do need the range couldn't quite spring for the 789 or A359 but still need the lift?



Unless the higher MTOW means a higher OEW, surely it is up to the airlines on the range they operate the aircraft at? If the higher MTOW is "free" from the A339 MTOW, why not have airlines have the option to use it if they want to?
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:04 pm

ACA772LR wrote:
Does anyone think the LH/Swiss A340s will survive this?


I will say yes at least for the A346s. The remaining A343s and A346s with the Lufthansa Group are all fully owned (any remaining leases have been bought out). I actually believe the B744 could end up being a casualty, as LH could reconfigure the A346s without first class and carry slightly more LD3 containers...none will be operated on maximum-range missions, and even on a route to a place like BOG, you wouldn't have performance issues. That said, the A343s need to be replaced soon, because they're running out of hours (LH has flown prior examples to timing out). The A346s aren't on missions shorter than 6 hours, and so cycles shouldn't be an issue.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:40 pm

Vladex wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
And we won’t know till it flies. A lot of people seem to act as though the A380 and the 777x are the same size aircraft. And they really are not. The A380 is HUGE. Many many many more airlines can fill a 777x than the number that can fill a 380. The 777x isn’t that much bigger than the 77W if you actually think about it.


The 779 is still a larger aircraft in an era when smaller aircraft are more popular, in the aftermath of Covid-19 airlines may cut back on larger aircraft. The question isn't how many airlines could fill a 779, but rather for how many is it better to use the A350 and 787 instead.


Do you live on the same planet as I do? Last time I checked it was the smaller aircraft that were dying off not the larger ones. Also the engines will be getting larger in the future which will favor even bigger aircraft. There may be fewer of them which is good because the numbers today are already enough or too many.


The A380 has been cancelled, the 747-8 is on life support, the 779 hasn't made big inroads yet and the A35K has been hugely overshadowed by its smaller sibling, whilst narrowbodies saw unpred success, and the 787/A359 have taken a stranglehold on the market.
 
Vladex
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:32 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Vladex wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

The 779 is still a larger aircraft in an era when smaller aircraft are more popular, in the aftermath of Covid-19 airlines may cut back on larger aircraft. The question isn't how many airlines could fill a 779, but rather for how many is it better to use the A350 and 787 instead.


Do you live on the same planet as I do? Last time I checked it was the smaller aircraft that were dying off not the larger ones. Also the engines will be getting larger in the future which will favor even bigger aircraft. There may be fewer of them which is good because the numbers today are already enough or too many.


The A380 has been cancelled, the 747-8 is on life support, the 779 hasn't made big inroads yet and the A35K has been hugely overshadowed by its smaller sibling, whilst narrowbodies saw unpred success, and the 787/A359 have taken a stranglehold on the market.


But there is always talk of enlarging existing airplanes not of making them smaller. Smaller airplanes are really not selling like 737, E2 , Mitsubishi and C series totally destroyed Bombardier and airlines are always going bigger to A321NEO. A330-800, A350-800, 777-8 and 787-8 are really not selling as well. New engines always favor a bigger airplane. i don't know what will happen in the next 5 years but Airbus delivery will be much lower because airlines don't have money and will be flying older airplanes with cheap fuel but some airlines will still grow like EK and SQ and they do it only on A380 because of one hub.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:54 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
Vladex wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Vladex wrote:

Do you live on the same planet as I do? Last time I checked it was the smaller aircraft that were dying off not the larger ones. Also the engines will be getting larger in the future which will favor even bigger aircraft. There may be fewer of them which is good because the numbers today are already enough or too many.


The A380 has been cancelled, the 747-8 is on life support, the 779 hasn't made big inroads yet and the A35K has been hugely overshadowed by its smaller sibling, whilst narrowbodies saw unpred success, and the 787/A359 have taken a stranglehold on the market.


But there is always talk of enlarging existing airplanes not of making them smaller. Smaller airplanes are really not selling like 737, E2 , Mitsubishi and C series totally destroyed Bombardier and airlines are always going bigger to A321NEO. A330-800, A350-800, 777-8 and 787-8 are really not selling as well. New engines always favor a bigger airplane. i don't know what will happen in the next 5 years but Airbus delivery will be much lower because airlines don't have money and will be flying older airplanes with cheap fuel but some airlines will still grow like EK and SQ and they do it only on A380 because of one hub.


I think you're confusing stretches with large aircraft. Yes, stretches of aircraft tend to do better, but the largest aircraft are not selling quickly... at all, whereas smaller and medium-sized aircraft had been enjoying a lot of success.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:02 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
Vladex wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

The 779 is still a larger aircraft in an era when smaller aircraft are more popular, in the aftermath of Covid-19 airlines may cut back on larger aircraft. The question isn't how many airlines could fill a 779, but rather for how many is it better to use the A350 and 787 instead.


Do you live on the same planet as I do? Last time I checked it was the smaller aircraft that were dying off not the larger ones. Also the engines will be getting larger in the future which will favor even bigger aircraft. There may be fewer of them which is good because the numbers today are already enough or too many.


The A380 has been cancelled, the 747-8 is on life support, the 779 hasn't made big inroads yet and the A35K has been hugely overshadowed by its smaller sibling, whilst narrowbodies saw unpred success, and the 787/A359 have taken a stranglehold on the market.

People love P2P.

The c-series/A220 has struggled and the MRJ is very delay prone, and E2 sales have been disappointing. The issue is that sales have consolidated to the A320-737-8-A321 size range.

It is too flexible. Fly a route from 2x week to 50x+/week and this size range is the workhorse. Everything else gets the scraps.

In a down market, the larger frames will suffer. This isn't a plug for the A338 or 788, this is a trend to large narrowbodies.

Lightsaber
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Vladex
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 9:59 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
Vladex wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

The A380 has been cancelled, the 747-8 is on life support, the 779 hasn't made big inroads yet and the A35K has been hugely overshadowed by its smaller sibling, whilst narrowbodies saw unpred success, and the 787/A359 have taken a stranglehold on the market.


But there is always talk of enlarging existing airplanes not of making them smaller. Smaller airplanes are really not selling like 737, E2 , Mitsubishi and C series totally destroyed Bombardier and airlines are always going bigger to A321NEO. A330-800, A350-800, 777-8 and 787-8 are really not selling as well. New engines always favor a bigger airplane. i don't know what will happen in the next 5 years but Airbus delivery will be much lower because airlines don't have money and will be flying older airplanes with cheap fuel but some airlines will still grow like EK and SQ and they do it only on A380 because of one hub.


I think you're confusing stretches with large aircraft. Yes, stretches of aircraft tend to do better, but the largest aircraft are not selling quickly... at all, whereas smaller and medium-sized aircraft had been enjoying a lot of success.



Think again? Stretches tend to have mixed success with big failures like 767-400, 757-300, 747-8 and 777X which will come nowhere close to original 777 in terms of sales because of competition. A321 is also a stretch but was selling so poorly in its infancy that it only had over 50 deliveries in its thirteenth year (2007) and Airbus went shrinking it to the absurd level (A318). Of course now A321 is the hottest airplane because it's the biggest narrow body so why wouldn't the biggest wide body be just as good?:
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:26 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
I don't think the pessimism is misplaced, while I don't think it will be a disaster, it's a perfectly valid question to ask how big a market there really is for it, as smaller aircraft are more flexible.


I always thought Boeing was openly pessimestic about the jet becoming a big seller like the B777-300ER. That's why they didn't invest a lot of money into reducing the weight of the fuselage.

The jet is really suitable for extremely busy routes.

OEW (2 class seats) lb/seat | range
B787-9 284,000 lb (290) 979 lb/seat | 7,635 nmi - $292.5 million
B787-10 298,700 lb (330) 905 lb/seat | 6,430 nmi - $338.4 million
B777-9 400,000 lb (426) 939 lb/seat | 7,285 nmi - $442.2 million
 
Vladex
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:38 am

lightsaber wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
Vladex wrote:

Do you live on the same planet as I do? Last time I checked it was the smaller aircraft that were dying off not the larger ones. Also the engines will be getting larger in the future which will favor even bigger aircraft. There may be fewer of them which is good because the numbers today are already enough or too many.


The A380 has been cancelled, the 747-8 is on life support, the 779 hasn't made big inroads yet and the A35K has been hugely overshadowed by its smaller sibling, whilst narrowbodies saw unpred success, and the 787/A359 have taken a stranglehold on the market.

People love P2P.

The c-series/A220 has struggled and the MRJ is very delay prone, and E2 sales have been disappointing. The issue is that sales have consolidated to the A320-737-8-A321 size range.

It is too flexible. Fly a route from 2x week to 50x+/week and this size range is the workhorse. Everything else gets the scraps.

In a down market, the larger frames will suffer. This isn't a plug for the A338 or 788, this is a trend to large narrowbodies.

Lightsaber


P2P is only LCC and I think people appreciate it , not love it.
I don't think narrow body is that flexible, it has its limitations.
 
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Antaras
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:43 am

Devilfish wrote:
What about many other airlines who would need to cut capacity and downgauge due to this crisis, but have to maintain frequency nonetheless? Folding is not an option so for them, the price of providing that service with the current choices may be a little too steep soon after emerging from this pandemic. And there's no better alternative on the horizon despite what OEMs have been promising. Of course, there would be plenty of used 787s and undelivered A359s looking for new homes in the wake of this turmoil -- question is if those would be cheap enough. :twocents:

The "cutting capacity but to keep the frequency" can makes sense with the A319 (as comparison to A320 or A321) and 73G (as comparison to 738 or 739), but not the A338 (nor the B778)
The Cash Operating Cost (COC) of the A388 is not remarkably cheaper than the A339 (~$500 cheaper), that's why carriers are skipping the A338.
Even if there is a real demand in the A332-A338-size market, you still have another perfect choice: Boeing 787-8.
Remember that, even the launch B788 order from ANA (36) can even outsold the total number of A388's order 2.6 to 1.
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MrHMSH
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:14 am

Vladex wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
[twoid][/twoid]
Vladex wrote:

But there is always talk of enlarging existing airplanes not of making them smaller. Smaller airplanes are really not selling like 737, E2 , Mitsubishi and C series totally destroyed Bombardier and airlines are always going bigger to A321NEO. A330-800, A350-800, 777-8 and 787-8 are really not selling as well. New engines always favor a bigger airplane. i don't know what will happen in the next 5 years but Airbus delivery will be much lower because airlines don't have money and will be flying older airplanes with cheap fuel but some airlines will still grow like EK and SQ and they do it only on A380 because of one hub.


I think you're confusing stretches with large aircraft. Yes, stretches of aircraft tend to do better, but the largest aircraft are not selling quickly... at all, whereas smaller and medium-sized aircraft had been enjoying a lot of success.



Think again? Stretches tend to have mixed success with big failures like 767-400, 757-300, 747-8 and 777X which will come nowhere close to original 777 in terms of sales because of competition. A321 is also a stretch but was selling so poorly in its infancy that it only had over 50 deliveries in its thirteenth year (2007) and Airbus went shrinking it to the absurd level (A318). Of course now A321 is the hottest airplane because it's the biggest narrow body so why wouldn't the biggest wide body be just as good?:


A321, 767-300, 787-9, 777-300ER were all successes, I would say the stretches were generally more successful than the shrinks. Being a success later on is still a success.

Why wouldn't the biggest widebody be a success? The biggest widebody was a failure, as was the 2nd biggest. Filling up a 240 seat aircraft in ULCC configuration, or around 200 with some premium seats is not all that difficult, whereas filling an 800+ seat aircraft ULCC, 500+ with premium seats. I said that smaller aircraft tended to be more successful, I'll take it back and start anew: the sweet spots for the market are where the A321neo is, and where the 789, 78X and A359 are. Those are the hottest sellers now, the largest aircraft are not selling in huge numbers, you can't just overlook the A380 and 747-8. With smaller alternatives available, the 744 was replaced largely by the smaller 77W (some by the larger A380), and I think this will play out in many cases with the 777X. Not all, but I'm claiming that the market is a fair bit weaker for the 777X than for the 77W, or indeed the current 789 and A359.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:16 am

PacoMartin wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
I don't think the pessimism is misplaced, while I don't think it will be a disaster, it's a perfectly valid question to ask how big a market there really is for it, as smaller aircraft are more flexible.


I always thought Boeing was openly pessimestic about the jet becoming a big seller like the B777-300ER. That's why they didn't invest a lot of money into reducing the weight of the fuselage.

The jet is really suitable for extremely busy routes.

OEW (2 class seats) lb/seat | range
B787-9 284,000 lb (290) 979 lb/seat | 7,635 nmi - $292.5 million
B787-10 298,700 lb (330) 905 lb/seat | 6,430 nmi - $338.4 million
B777-9 400,000 lb (426) 939 lb/seat | 7,285 nmi - $442.2 million


The question is how many extremely busy routes are there, and how many are there where an A350 or 787 doesn't make more sense?
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Future demand for widebodies

Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:18 am

PacoMartin wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
I don't think the pessimism is misplaced, while I don't think it will be a disaster, it's a perfectly valid question to ask how big a market there really is for it, as smaller aircraft are more flexible.


I always thought Boeing was openly pessimestic about the jet becoming a big seller like the B777-300ER. That's why they didn't invest a lot of money into reducing the weight of the fuselage.

The jet is really suitable for extremely busy routes.

OEW (2 class seats) lb/seat | range
B787-9 284,000 lb (290) 979 lb/seat | 7,635 nmi - $292.5 million
B787-10 298,700 lb (330) 905 lb/seat | 6,430 nmi - $338.4 million
B777-9 400,000 lb (426) 939 lb/seat | 7,285 nmi - $442.2 million


The question is how many extremely busy routes are there, and how many are there where an A350 or 787 doesn't make more sense?

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