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MAH4546
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 12:45 am

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
AA is not closing LAX. Please.

It's feeder airline at LAX is literally shutting down on April 7th. It will reshuffle things in May. I believe the planes are being transferred to another one of AA's feeder carriers.


They are not closing LAX, but the station will resemble a focus city not hub. Even AA has publicly stated China flights most likely will not be back. As I stated a few days ago, the LAX hub is not necessary anymore after dropping the China flights - which represented half of its TPAC gateway. This news is now public (see link below). The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... ronavirus/



No, AA will continue to have a hub at LAX.

China flying resumes in October if things stabilize. AA did indeed consider not resume those routes a few months ago, but has ruled against that.

AA lost it’s main regional partner at LAX and all Eagle flying suspended for April. A new schedule for May will be published tomorrow night. There will be significant cuts at LAX, of course, but even DFW is being cut by about 65% and Phoenix will be cut by about 75-80%. Reagan will be pretty much just hub services and a few others as it’s cut by 85%, but that hub, like LAX, isn’t closing either. And Delta isn’t closing it’s JFK hub even though it has suspended every single trans-Atlantic flight from JFK.

PHX is easily the hub in most trouble if things don’t get better, although I don’t foresee any hub closures.
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slcdeltarumd11
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:32 am

In theory Can AA move it's China flights from LAX to SEA?
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:37 am

dfwjim1 wrote:
I have been to Phoenix a few times and I have been unimpressed to say the least.


Oh they really should close the hub then. Have you let AA know this yet?
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:42 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
In theory Can AA move it's China flights from LAX to SEA?


Why would they? That'd be like suggesting DL should move its full ATL hub operation to SLC.
 
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BA744PHX
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:02 am

WidebodyPTV wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
In theory Can AA move it's China flights from LAX to SEA?


Why would they? That'd be like suggesting DL should move its full ATL hub operation to SLC.


That's a possibility but the MAJOR difference is LAX & SEA have large international footprints.... that cannot be said in anyway about SLC.

Not a diss for SLC but lets be real people
 
WidebodyPTV
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:12 am

BA744PHX wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
In theory Can AA move it's China flights from LAX to SEA?


Why would they? That'd be like suggesting DL should move its full ATL hub operation to SLC.


That's a possibility but the MAJOR difference is LAX & SEA have large international footprints.... that cannot be said in anyway about SLC.

Not a diss for SLC but lets be real people


I think you missed my point. While Seattle has seen a surge in China immigration and investment, Los Angeles/Inland Empire continues to outpace it. Southern California is still the top destination for Chinese immigrants, and they've been the fastest growing ethic group for more than half a decade. There's an estimated 700K Chinese immigrants -- 7x that of Seattle -- and over 200 medium/large-sized Chinese owned companies in SoCal. Why on Earth would AA want to move its China flights from LA to Seattle? I would buy into the assertion that they could try adding service to SEA, in conjunction with AS, but definitely not end LA.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:52 am

I thought for AA China at LAX was very connection heavy. Was just thinking with the new AS relationship, they have feed to even more cities out of SEA. I would guess the Chinese Airlines have the O&D china originating passengers anyway. I don't see US businesses making people travel to China anytime soon.
 
tphuang
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:59 am

I'd be surprised if those AA China flights come back. People keep talking about this like things will be back to normal and that you can't cut these strategic routes. That boat has sailed. Aside from the core hubs that have always been most profitable for AA (DFW, CLT and DCA), everywhere else will see a lot. It won't just be JFK getting downsized in their system.

As this point, I don't see TPAC demand come back for 2 years and those were really the lowest margin flights to begin with.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:24 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
AA is not closing LAX. Please.

It's feeder airline at LAX is literally shutting down on April 7th. It will reshuffle things in May. I believe the planes are being transferred to another one of AA's feeder carriers.


They are not closing LAX, but the station will resemble a focus city not hub. Even AA has publicly stated China flights most likely will not be back. As I stated a few days ago, the LAX hub is not necessary anymore after dropping the China flights - which represented half of its TPAC gateway. This news is now public (see link below). The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... ronavirus/


1. Let the record show that article was written before the AS/AA partnership was announced.

2. Let the record also show that they said they were “considering” ending service, no where does it say those flights will most likely not be back.

3. Mainland China isn’t half of TPAC from LAX, they have a JV with Qantas & JAL and AA operates 2xHND, HKG, SYD, AKL, and soon CHC on its own metal.(AA currently has more TPAC metal from LAX than UA & DL IIRC)

4. Cutting down LAX to a focus city would significantly cut down connectivity to TPAC destinations from dozens of destinations. HKG-LAX alone was has 4 total flights (AA+CX), the remaining hubs have 2 (not including JFK). Not to mention passengers having to back track to DFW, since AA has no codeshare partners on PVG or PEK to the US

5. Cutting down domestic service would significantly weaken JV & codeshare flights to LAX. For example, QF’s Australia-LAX flights are only 1/3rd O&D (per DOT filings). Through its codeshares/JV's LAX is the only AA hub with service to KIX, AKL, MEL, CAN, SHE, PPT, HEL(year-round), BNE (ORD is coming), CHC (soon), & probably some others that I left out

6. The whole point of the AS partnership from AA’s end is for AS to feed AA’s long-haul network, without a hub in LAX, the partnership adds little value for AA.

7. It sounds like you are suggesting AA will reduce to DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, & MIA domestically from LAX. If that is what you are suggesting, that is wrong. Even if AA were to cut LAX to a focus city, they would retain service to DCA, not to mention numerous other routes where they are performing well. If AA were to drop service that low they would essentially be gifting DL & UA an enormous present

8. From a logistical point of view, as I have pointed out earlier, most connections through PHX are redundant if LAX & DFW remain hubs. It should be clear at this point that AA wants East-West connections to fly through DFW, why AA has remained committed to PHX is the O&D and the ideal winter seasonal traffic.

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
I thought for AA China at LAX was very connection heavy. Was just thinking with the new AS relationship, they have feed to even more cities out of SEA. I would guess the Chinese Airlines have the O&D china originating passengers anyway. I don't see US businesses making people travel to China anytime soon.


China is already recovering from Corona, rest of the world is mostly still in the thick of it, and will be for some time. Asian countries are actually trying to ban US travelers now
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21K0N0

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
In theory Can AA move it's China flights from LAX to SEA?


In theory they could, but it wouldn't help them. From what they are saying, it sounds like the primary reason they are doing BLR from SEA is because of range not so that they can go directly h2h with DL's TPAC hub.
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MrPeanut
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:15 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
AA is not closing LAX. Please.

It's feeder airline at LAX is literally shutting down on April 7th. It will reshuffle things in May. I believe the planes are being transferred to another one of AA's feeder carriers.


They are not closing LAX, but the station will resemble a focus city not hub. Even AA has publicly stated China flights most likely will not be back. As I stated a few days ago, the LAX hub is not necessary anymore after dropping the China flights - which represented half of its TPAC gateway. This news is now public (see link below). The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... ronavirus/



No, AA will continue to have a hub at LAX.

China flying resumes in October if things stabilize. AA did indeed consider not resume those routes a few months ago, but has ruled against that.

AA lost it’s main regional partner at LAX and all Eagle flying suspended for April. A new schedule for May will be published tomorrow night. There will be significant cuts at LAX, of course, but even DFW is being cut by about 65% and Phoenix will be cut by about 75-80%. Reagan will be pretty much just hub services and a few others as it’s cut by 85%, but that hub, like LAX, isn’t closing either. And Delta isn’t closing it’s JFK hub even though it has suspended every single trans-Atlantic flight from JFK.

PHX is easily the hub in most trouble if things don’t get better, although I don’t foresee any hub closures.


AA publicly stated as recently as Thursday that they may consider dropping the China routes, so they have not ruled it out. Also there is a reason why all of those China routes are “scheduled” to resume in the month of October. Most, of not all, of those routes scheduled to resume in October won’t. In October there will be another round of cuts.

Also the loss of AA’s regional partner at LAX pales in comparison to the loss of their mainline routes they cancelled such as RDU, ATL, BNA, etc. So by stating the reduction is due to the loss of their Eagle partner is not accurate. The loss of their regional partner only accelerated the plan.
 
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chepos
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:36 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

They are not closing LAX, but the station will resemble a focus city not hub. Even AA has publicly stated China flights most likely will not be back. As I stated a few days ago, the LAX hub is not necessary anymore after dropping the China flights - which represented half of its TPAC gateway. This news is now public (see link below). The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... ronavirus/



No, AA will continue to have a hub at LAX.

China flying resumes in October if things stabilize. AA did indeed consider not resume those routes a few months ago, but has ruled against that.

AA lost it’s main regional partner at LAX and all Eagle flying suspended for April. A new schedule for May will be published tomorrow night. There will be significant cuts at LAX, of course, but even DFW is being cut by about 65% and Phoenix will be cut by about 75-80%. Reagan will be pretty much just hub services and a few others as it’s cut by 85%, but that hub, like LAX, isn’t closing either. And Delta isn’t closing it’s JFK hub even though it has suspended every single trans-Atlantic flight from JFK.

PHX is easily the hub in most trouble if things don’t get better, although I don’t foresee any hub closures.


AA publicly stated as recently as Thursday that they may consider dropping the China routes, so they have not ruled it out. Also there is a reason why all of those China routes are “scheduled” to resume in the month of October. Most, of not all, of those routes scheduled to resume in October won’t. In October there will be another round of cuts.

Also the loss of AA’s regional partner at LAX pales in comparison to the loss of their mainline routes they cancelled such as RDU, ATL, BNA, etc. So by stating the reduction is due to the loss of their Eagle partner is not accurate. The loss of their regional partner only accelerated the plan.

As recently as Thursday AA stated they were planning on resuming flights to China on 10/25. You are speculating that routes scheduled to resume in October will not restart. You are speculating that there will be another round of cuts in October.

Pretty certain if you were privy or had insider knowledge on route planning you would not be posting it on an internet forum.


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Ishrion
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:38 pm

MrPeanut wrote:

AA publicly stated as recently as Thursday that they may consider dropping the China routes


Uhh where did they say that?
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:41 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

They are not closing LAX, but the station will resemble a focus city not hub. Even AA has publicly stated China flights most likely will not be back. As I stated a few days ago, the LAX hub is not necessary anymore after dropping the China flights - which represented half of its TPAC gateway. This news is now public (see link below). The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... ronavirus/



No, AA will continue to have a hub at LAX.

China flying resumes in October if things stabilize. AA did indeed consider not resume those routes a few months ago, but has ruled against that.

AA lost it’s main regional partner at LAX and all Eagle flying suspended for April. A new schedule for May will be published tomorrow night. There will be significant cuts at LAX, of course, but even DFW is being cut by about 65% and Phoenix will be cut by about 75-80%. Reagan will be pretty much just hub services and a few others as it’s cut by 85%, but that hub, like LAX, isn’t closing either. And Delta isn’t closing it’s JFK hub even though it has suspended every single trans-Atlantic flight from JFK.

PHX is easily the hub in most trouble if things don’t get better, although I don’t foresee any hub closures.


AA publicly stated as recently as Thursday that they may consider dropping the China routes, so they have not ruled it out. Also there is a reason why all of those China routes are “scheduled” to resume in the month of October. Most, of not all, of those routes scheduled to resume in October won’t. In October there will be another round of cuts.

Also the loss of AA’s regional partner at LAX pales in comparison to the loss of their mainline routes they cancelled such as RDU, ATL, BNA, etc. So by stating the reduction is due to the loss of their Eagle partner is not accurate. The loss of their regional partner only accelerated the plan.


Where is the source from Thursday? The article you referenced is from 2 months ago

Where are you getting this info from?

Why are not mentioning that DL is also cancelling RDU & BNA? Your vendetta against AA's LAX operation is clear....
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Cubsrule
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:44 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:


No, AA will continue to have a hub at LAX.

China flying resumes in October if things stabilize. AA did indeed consider not resume those routes a few months ago, but has ruled against that.

AA lost it’s main regional partner at LAX and all Eagle flying suspended for April. A new schedule for May will be published tomorrow night. There will be significant cuts at LAX, of course, but even DFW is being cut by about 65% and Phoenix will be cut by about 75-80%. Reagan will be pretty much just hub services and a few others as it’s cut by 85%, but that hub, like LAX, isn’t closing either. And Delta isn’t closing it’s JFK hub even though it has suspended every single trans-Atlantic flight from JFK.

PHX is easily the hub in most trouble if things don’t get better, although I don’t foresee any hub closures.


AA publicly stated as recently as Thursday that they may consider dropping the China routes, so they have not ruled it out. Also there is a reason why all of those China routes are “scheduled” to resume in the month of October. Most, of not all, of those routes scheduled to resume in October won’t. In October there will be another round of cuts.

Also the loss of AA’s regional partner at LAX pales in comparison to the loss of their mainline routes they cancelled such as RDU, ATL, BNA, etc. So by stating the reduction is due to the loss of their Eagle partner is not accurate. The loss of their regional partner only accelerated the plan.


Where is the source from Thursday? The article you referenced is from 2 months ago

Where are you getting this info from?

Why are not mentioning that DL is also cancelling RDU & BNA? Your vendetta against AA's LAX operation is clear....


The suggestion that DL is or would be stronger than AA on BNA/RDU-LAX is absurd. AA has too much history on those routes. But cutting routes that overfly huge hubs in the current environment also makes perfect sense for both carriers.
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USAirALB
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:46 pm

I would say PHX is fairly safe. The hub was right sized years ago after the US/HP merger was completed and several more marginal East Coast destinations were dropped (BDL, YYZ, for example). Besides serving the West Coast/Mountain region, the hub currently features flights to Midwest/East Coast cities that either are large metro areas, cities where AA has a strong FF base, or to where there is significant demand to PHX. I honestly don't know what you could cut.

I don't think AA would drop LAX, but there are some cities (CMH/BDL/OMA/SDF/TUL/MEM/MSY) that I could see potentially dropped. I also question whether CHC would start.
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Midwestindy
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:00 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

AA publicly stated as recently as Thursday that they may consider dropping the China routes, so they have not ruled it out. Also there is a reason why all of those China routes are “scheduled” to resume in the month of October. Most, of not all, of those routes scheduled to resume in October won’t. In October there will be another round of cuts.

Also the loss of AA’s regional partner at LAX pales in comparison to the loss of their mainline routes they cancelled such as RDU, ATL, BNA, etc. So by stating the reduction is due to the loss of their Eagle partner is not accurate. The loss of their regional partner only accelerated the plan.


Where is the source from Thursday? The article you referenced is from 2 months ago

Where are you getting this info from?

Why are not mentioning that DL is also cancelling RDU & BNA? Your vendetta against AA's LAX operation is clear....


The suggestion that DL is or would be stronger than AA on BNA/RDU-LAX is absurd. AA has too much history on those routes. But cutting routes that overfly huge hubs in the current environment also makes perfect sense for both carriers.


Absurd? DL is stronger than AA on RDU-LAX now, they serve it 2x daily to AA's 1, not to mention RDU is a focus city for DL.

But none of that was what I was talking about, the poster was acting as if AA was the only one cutting routes from LAX......
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Cubsrule
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:07 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Where is the source from Thursday? The article you referenced is from 2 months ago

Where are you getting this info from?

Why are not mentioning that DL is also cancelling RDU & BNA? Your vendetta against AA's LAX operation is clear....


The suggestion that DL is or would be stronger than AA on BNA/RDU-LAX is absurd. AA has too much history on those routes. But cutting routes that overfly huge hubs in the current environment also makes perfect sense for both carriers.


Absurd? DL is stronger than AA on RDU-LAX now, they serve it 2x daily to AA's 1, not to mention RDU is a focus city for DL.

But none of that was what I was talking about, the poster was acting as if AA was the only one cutting routes from LAX......


Sure, because they are trying to grow RDU. You think BNA-RDU has ever made money? But I was speaking of historical strength.
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Midwestindy
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:51 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

The suggestion that DL is or would be stronger than AA on BNA/RDU-LAX is absurd. AA has too much history on those routes. But cutting routes that overfly huge hubs in the current environment also makes perfect sense for both carriers.


Absurd? DL is stronger than AA on RDU-LAX now, they serve it 2x daily to AA's 1, not to mention RDU is a focus city for DL.

But none of that was what I was talking about, the poster was acting as if AA was the only one cutting routes from LAX......


Sure, because they are trying to grow RDU. You think BNA-RDU has ever made money? But I was speaking of historical strength.


Even with nearly double the capacity DL commands a higher fare on RDU-LAX nonstop than AA, Q3 2019 DL $309 v. AA $298. Regardless RDU-LAX is a strong performer for AA & DL from LAX, haven't looked at BNA-LAX
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Starwood1
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:24 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
AA is not closing LAX. Please.

It's feeder airline at LAX is literally shutting down on April 7th. It will reshuffle things in May. I believe the planes are being transferred to another one of AA's feeder carriers.


AA's plan at the end of March was to end all Eagle operations until 6/1 which is the reason Compass Failed. They approached Compass to let them know of the scheduling changes and with no flying Compass couldn't stay afloat. AA ending destinations and Eagle services was not the result of Compass closing. Skywest will pick up the LAX flying when Eagle flights resume and most of the destinations will come back. The eagles nest isn't closing for good, yet, and will come back 6/1 when eagle flights resume.
 
onwFan
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:24 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

They are not closing LAX, but the station will resemble a focus city not hub. Even AA has publicly stated China flights most likely will not be back. As I stated a few days ago, the LAX hub is not necessary anymore after dropping the China flights - which represented half of its TPAC gateway. This news is now public (see link below). The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... ronavirus/



No, AA will continue to have a hub at LAX.

China flying resumes in October if things stabilize. AA did indeed consider not resume those routes a few months ago, but has ruled against that.

AA lost it’s main regional partner at LAX and all Eagle flying suspended for April. A new schedule for May will be published tomorrow night. There will be significant cuts at LAX, of course, but even DFW is being cut by about 65% and Phoenix will be cut by about 75-80%. Reagan will be pretty much just hub services and a few others as it’s cut by 85%, but that hub, like LAX, isn’t closing either. And Delta isn’t closing it’s JFK hub even though it has suspended every single trans-Atlantic flight from JFK.

PHX is easily the hub in most trouble if things don’t get better, although I don’t foresee any hub closures.


AA publicly stated as recently as Thursday that they may consider dropping the China routes, so they have not ruled it out. Also there is a reason why all of those China routes are “scheduled” to resume in the month of October. Most, of not all, of those routes scheduled to resume in October won’t. In October there will be another round of cuts.

Also the loss of AA’s regional partner at LAX pales in comparison to the loss of their mainline routes they cancelled such as RDU, ATL, BNA, etc. So by stating the reduction is due to the loss of their Eagle partner is not accurate. The loss of their regional partner only accelerated the plan.

This is the second time you have mentioned that AA has ‘publicly’ said they may drop the China routes. Where exactly did they say this? Or does this ‘public’ only involve you?

People who say AA will dehub LAX to prop up PHX clearly have no idea about AA’s history with LA. If AA is interested in flying passengers to/from LA, they need to fly direct. No one is going to connect through PHX from LA. If they drop routes, they lose those passengers and the ones connecting internationally from their partners. LA in itself is a big market, which is why UA and DL maintain such large operations there... What is funny is that people here say AA will keep PHX because it also has significant O/D demand; and yet say LAX will be dehubbed despite LAX being the airport with the highest O/D demand in the US.
 
SurfandSnow
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:04 am

Now that AA and AS have grown closer, it may make sense to eliminate competing services and codeshare on regional and even transborder stuff. Wouldn't AA pax headed to, say, PVR or SFO rather walk over to Terminal 6 and hop on a mainline AS flight (on a proper AA/oneworld codeshare, of course) rather than take a bus over to the spartan Eagles Nest? With AS already operating nonstop services between LAX and destinations like ANC, RDM, SJC and STS, does AA really need to restore its own duplicative services? AS already threw in the towel on LAX-FLL and LAX-SLC, and could probably now cut other VX stuff like DAL, IAD and ORD in favor of AA codeshares as well. I should think if enough overlapping flights between AA and AS are cut the awful Eagles Nest could be shut down for good and a comprehensive AA/AS/oneworld codeshare operation could be offered from TBIT, Terminal 4, Terminal 5 and Terminal 6.

When it comes to AA mainline service at LAX, I would honestly be surprised if it makes sense to keep stuff like LAX-ATL/BDL/CMH/IND/MEM/MSY/RDU/SDF. I should imagine a lot of that capacity was connecting onwards to places like Asia, Australia and Hawaii, and whatever local demand did/does/will exist can easily be routed via a hub like PHX going forward.
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RUIRCE
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:09 am

SurfandSnow wrote:

When it comes to AA mainline service at LAX, I would honestly be surprised if it makes sense to keep stuff like LAX-ATL/BDL/CMH/IND/MEM/MSY/RDU/SDF. I should imagine a lot of that capacity was connecting onwards to places like Asia, Australia and Hawaii, and whatever local demand did/does/will exist can easily be routed via a hub like PHX going forward.


I think ATL will continue to have nonstops because it’s a large business market and it also has a massive film/TV industry where many actors commute from places such as LAX.
 
FSDan
Posts: 3312
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:13 am

SurfandSnow wrote:
Now that AA and AS have grown closer, it may make sense to eliminate competing services and codeshare on regional and even transborder stuff. Wouldn't AA pax headed to, say, PVR or SFO rather walk over to Terminal 6 and hop on a mainline AS flight (on a proper AA/oneworld codeshare, of course) rather than take a bus over to the spartan Eagles Nest? With AS already operating nonstop services between LAX and destinations like ANC, RDM, SJC and STS, does AA really need to restore its own duplicative services? AS already threw in the towel on LAX-FLL and LAX-SLC, and could probably now cut other VX stuff like DAL, IAD and ORD in favor of AA codeshares as well. I should think if enough overlapping flights between AA and AS are cut the awful Eagles Nest could be shut down for good and a comprehensive AA/AS/oneworld codeshare operation could be offered from TBIT, Terminal 4, Terminal 5 and Terminal 6.


AA and AS are codeshare partners and will soon enough be in the same alliance, but they do not have ATI. As such they can't coordinate anything like this, and might invite DOJ investigation if perceived to be pandering to each other in the routes they cut (or the routes they don't reestablish after COVID-19). If AA were to bring back most of their service, but not PDX, EUG, MFR, RDM, SJC, and PVR, while AS brought back most of their service, but not DAL, ORD, IAD, PHL, and BOS, it might raise some eyebrows in Washington.
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MrMD11
Posts: 4
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:46 am

xcltflyboy wrote:
Yes, during a strong economy. But with huge cuts to flying, does PHX still make sense?


Of course it does. This argument about the Phoenix hub is one of the dumbest I've read since it was first brought up after the merger between AA and US Airways. Clearly many people on this forum have not lived or followed the growth in Phoenix. Sorry to break to the news to many of you arm-chair CEOs on this forum, but Phoenix is not the same city it was thirty years again and has grown just a little bit. As a native of Phoenix ( someone who was actually born and raised in Phoenix ) since the 1970s, Phoenix has and will continue to grow as more than just some giant retirement community as I have read some of you outsiders suggest. Perhaps AA will reduce more flights into / out of Phoenix, but by no way will Phoenix go the way of St. Louis or Cincinnati or Memphis. Even if that were to happen, how long do you honestly believe it would take another carrier to come and fill the gap ? I can assure you, not long at all, even with the presence of Southwest.

Move on.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 157
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:07 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
AA is not closing LAX. Please.

It's feeder airline at LAX is literally shutting down on April 7th. It will reshuffle things in May. I believe the planes are being transferred to another one of AA's feeder carriers.


They are not closing LAX, but the station will resemble a focus city not hub. Even AA has publicly stated China flights most likely will not be back. As I stated a few days ago, the LAX hub is not necessary anymore after dropping the China flights - which represented half of its TPAC gateway. This news is now public (see link below). The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... ronavirus/


1. Let the record show that article was written before the AS/AA partnership was announced.

2. Let the record also show that they said they were “considering” ending service, no where does it say those flights will most likely not be back.

3. Mainland China isn’t half of TPAC from LAX, they have a JV with Qantas & JAL and AA operates 2xHND, HKG, SYD, AKL, and soon CHC on its own metal.(AA currently has more TPAC metal from LAX than UA & DL IIRC)

4. Cutting down LAX to a focus city would significantly cut down connectivity to TPAC destinations from dozens of destinations. HKG-LAX alone was has 4 total flights (AA+CX), the remaining hubs have 2 (not including JFK). Not to mention passengers having to back track to DFW, since AA has no codeshare partners on PVG or PEK to the US

5. Cutting down domestic service would significantly weaken JV & codeshare flights to LAX. For example, QF’s Australia-LAX flights are only 1/3rd O&D (per DOT filings). Through its codeshares/JV's LAX is the only AA hub with service to KIX, AKL, MEL, CAN, SHE, PPT, HEL(year-round), BNE (ORD is coming), CHC (soon), & probably some others that I left out

6. The whole point of the AS partnership from AA’s end is for AS to feed AA’s long-haul network, without a hub in LAX, the partnership adds little value for AA.

7. It sounds like you are suggesting AA will reduce to DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, & MIA domestically from LAX. If that is what you are suggesting, that is wrong. Even if AA were to cut LAX to a focus city, they would retain service to DCA, not to mention numerous other routes where they are performing well. If AA were to drop service that low they would essentially be gifting DL & UA an enormous present

8. From a logistical point of view, as I have pointed out earlier, most connections through PHX are redundant if LAX & DFW remain hubs. It should be clear at this point that AA wants East-West connections to fly through DFW, why AA has remained committed to PHX is the O&D and the ideal winter seasonal traffic.


You do not understand the enormity of the situation if you believe the hub remains. This is now about survival for the airlines. The issue we are faced with is beyond enormous. This is not about prestige or trying new strategies (TPAC hub). This is about stopping the hemorrhage that lies in front of us.

All money losing routes will be cut. They no longer can run a money losing hub like LAX because, unlike previous years, the rest of the network is no longer profitable and unable to offset money losing hubs. LAX is now reduced to 31 flights. Everything you mentioned above no longer applies. It is irrelevant. The network you saw in January 2020 or in 2019 will look significantly different in a few months. Please stop trying to justify your position. The environment that you saw previously no longer exists.

If this still doesn’t make sense to you, then you have no clue of what is going on.
Last edited by MrPeanut on Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 157
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:15 pm

onwFan wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
This is the second time you have mentioned that AA has ‘publicly’ said they may drop the China routes. Where exactly did they say this? Or does this ‘public’ only involve you?

People who say AA will dehub LAX to prop up PHX clearly have no idea about AA’s history with LA. If AA is interested in flying passengers to/from LA, they need to fly direct. No one is going to connect through PHX from LA. If they drop routes, they lose those passengers and the ones connecting internationally from their partners. LA in itself is a big market, which is why UA and DL maintain such large operations there... What is funny is that people here say AA will keep PHX because it also has significant O/D demand; and yet say LAX will be dehubbed despite LAX being the airport with the highest O/D demand in the US.


I inserted a link. Did you read it ?

As for your comment about LAX, the same was said about JFK. And while the LA basin has significant O/D, LAX is split amongst 4 large carriers and the LA basin split amongst 5 airports. Once you do the math, the numbers are not as large as it first appears.
 
strfyr51
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:30 pm

xcltflyboy wrote:
Anyone want to speculate if AA will keep PHX as hub during this downturn? It's only my opinion, but it seems PHX's connecting traffic could easily be handled over LAX and DFW. I would love to hear what others think (as long as you're civil about it!).


AA's PHX hub to them is just like UA's or WN's Denver Hubs are to them. I see no reason they would or should give it up. This Virus is going to screw everybody 'equally'!! To start crying "Chicken Little"? Is a little soon? And? A little Lame! If AA downsizes their PHX hub and it turns out we beat this disease? Then they might do damage to themselves. If it turns out we do NOT beat this Virus? Then it's academic!! because only Dallas and Chicago might well be the only AA bubs. But? I'm betting we'll beat this! Business might be down a while but like they told me in Nam? This Too shall Pass!
 
hpff
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:49 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
All money losing routes will be cut. They no longer can run a money losing hub like LAX because, unlike previous years, the rest of the network is no longer profitable and unable to offset money losing hubs. LAX is now reduced to 31 flights. Everything you mentioned above no longer applies. It is irrelevant. The network you saw in January 2020 or in 2019 will look significantly different in a few months. Please stop trying to justify your position. The environment that you saw previously no longer exists.

If this still doesn’t make sense to you, then you have no clue of what is going on.


I fully expect LAX to be ramped back up once demand starts to return. In Jan-Feb, AA was the largest carrier at LAX by several different metrics: https://www.lawa.org/-/media/lawa-web/s ... -2020.ashx Their position isn't dominant, but that comes from the fact LAX is functionally EWR, PHL and JFK rolled into one airport with five airlines all having a greater than 8% passenger share. They're not going to just stop competing at the second largest O&D metro area and the primary TPAC airport in the country outright by making it a spoke once we're out of this mess.
 
MAH4546
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:06 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

They are not closing LAX, but the station will resemble a focus city not hub. Even AA has publicly stated China flights most likely will not be back. As I stated a few days ago, the LAX hub is not necessary anymore after dropping the China flights - which represented half of its TPAC gateway. This news is now public (see link below). The TPAC flights that remain are easily filled via code share and feed from a handful of routes that will remain non-stop (DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, MIA). PHX is the better domestic connecting option over LAX for a myriad of reasons.


https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... ronavirus/


1. Let the record show that article was written before the AS/AA partnership was announced.

2. Let the record also show that they said they were “considering” ending service, no where does it say those flights will most likely not be back.

3. Mainland China isn’t half of TPAC from LAX, they have a JV with Qantas & JAL and AA operates 2xHND, HKG, SYD, AKL, and soon CHC on its own metal.(AA currently has more TPAC metal from LAX than UA & DL IIRC)

4. Cutting down LAX to a focus city would significantly cut down connectivity to TPAC destinations from dozens of destinations. HKG-LAX alone was has 4 total flights (AA+CX), the remaining hubs have 2 (not including JFK). Not to mention passengers having to back track to DFW, since AA has no codeshare partners on PVG or PEK to the US

5. Cutting down domestic service would significantly weaken JV & codeshare flights to LAX. For example, QF’s Australia-LAX flights are only 1/3rd O&D (per DOT filings). Through its codeshares/JV's LAX is the only AA hub with service to KIX, AKL, MEL, CAN, SHE, PPT, HEL(year-round), BNE (ORD is coming), CHC (soon), & probably some others that I left out

6. The whole point of the AS partnership from AA’s end is for AS to feed AA’s long-haul network, without a hub in LAX, the partnership adds little value for AA.

7. It sounds like you are suggesting AA will reduce to DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, & MIA domestically from LAX. If that is what you are suggesting, that is wrong. Even if AA were to cut LAX to a focus city, they would retain service to DCA, not to mention numerous other routes where they are performing well. If AA were to drop service that low they would essentially be gifting DL & UA an enormous present

8. From a logistical point of view, as I have pointed out earlier, most connections through PHX are redundant if LAX & DFW remain hubs. It should be clear at this point that AA wants East-West connections to fly through DFW, why AA has remained committed to PHX is the O&D and the ideal winter seasonal traffic.


You do not understand the enormity of the situation if you believe the hub remains. This is now about survival for the airlines. The issue we are faced with is beyond enormous. This is not about prestige or trying new strategies (TPAC hub). This is about stopping the hemorrhage that lies in front of us.

All money losing routes will be cut. They no longer can run a money losing hub like LAX because, unlike previous years, the rest of the network is no longer profitable and unable to offset money losing hubs. LAX is now reduced to 31 flights. Everything you mentioned above no longer applies. It is irrelevant. The network you saw in January 2020 or in 2019 will look significantly different in a few months. Please stop trying to justify your position. The environment that you saw previously no longer exists.

If this still doesn’t make sense to you, then you have no clue of what is going on.


One can fully grasp the enormity of the situation and conclude that LAX’s largest airline and largest hub operation is not going to be shut down.

AA’s LAX operation in May will be larger than UA’s EWR hub operation or its own DCA operation. Those aren’t closing either.

You act like LAX was a money pit which is blatantly false.
a.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:10 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
As for your comment about LAX, the same was said about JFK. And while the LA basin has significant O/D, LAX is split amongst 4 large carriers and the LA basin split amongst 5 airports. Once you do the math, the numbers are not as large as it first appears.


LAWA publishes a pretty full set of statistics. Were it that every U.S. airport did. AA had 17 million arriving and departing passengers at LAX last year. That's as many as it carried in JFK/LGA/EWR. AA may have decided it doesn't really need a JFK hub but it needs to serve NYC (and does, with heavy LGA presence). It needs to serve LAX.
 
tphuang
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 10:58 pm

I don't know how much AA will cut LAX coming out of this. They are clearly not going to leave LAX, but it could be a 200 flight station instead of 225. It could be 175 light station or 150 flight station. Based on their cuts here, it looks too me PHX is in far less danger of getting large downsizing compared to LAX. If we take pre-COVID margins around the country and reduce that by 10% (may still be really optimistic here) for Q3 of 2021. Where are each carriers at in their margins by that time. And remember, they will all be low on cash. They all need to be cash positive to not file chapter 11. Where are each carriers going to cut? I think the impact of this on the economy or airline industry will be around until people start getting vaccinated. If AA was generating negative margins at LGA and LAX before this, could they really maintain the same capacity coming out of this?
 
Sancho99504
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:31 pm

Boof02671 wrote:
tphuang wrote:
onwFan wrote:
[url][/url]
Walking away from being the largest carrier at LAX without any other west coast presence sounds like a terrible idea, unless they have some grand plan at SEA/PDX in mind with AS.

I think it has to be the partnership with AS or maybe they will attempt a merger with AS down the road.

NY/LAX have always been huge drains on AA resources. Coming out of this, they need money more than anyone else to make payments on all those new aircraft at a time when margins are going to be down for everyone. They are going to focus on building DFW/CLT/DCA, so those are not downsizing. Their weakest hubs will suffer and those are JFK/LGA/LAX. Do I see them use all their slots at LGA coming out of this? Not really. All the other hubs are going to be somewhere in between.

Only new deliveries have to have buying expenses. AA has already deferred 737Ms and A321neo. Newer planes are more fuel efficient and less maintenance costs. And DL has many planes in order, as does WN and UA. AA is ahead of the curve by having the majority of the fleet newer and paid for. And even before the pandemic AA was reducing CAPEX expenses.

ALL of those aircraft at AA less than 5 years old, carry a significant amount of debt. Over $34 billion in debt. That puts them WAY BEHIND the curve, especially with oil as low as it is and the fact that as long as the US economy and to some extent, the global economy, are struggling, oil will stay low, making those newer, more fuel efficient aircraft less important to the overall health of the airline.
kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out-USMC
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:39 am

MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

1. Let the record show that article was written before the AS/AA partnership was announced.

2. Let the record also show that they said they were “considering” ending service, no where does it say those flights will most likely not be back.

3. Mainland China isn’t half of TPAC from LAX, they have a JV with Qantas & JAL and AA operates 2xHND, HKG, SYD, AKL, and soon CHC on its own metal.(AA currently has more TPAC metal from LAX than UA & DL IIRC)

4. Cutting down LAX to a focus city would significantly cut down connectivity to TPAC destinations from dozens of destinations. HKG-LAX alone was has 4 total flights (AA+CX), the remaining hubs have 2 (not including JFK). Not to mention passengers having to back track to DFW, since AA has no codeshare partners on PVG or PEK to the US

5. Cutting down domestic service would significantly weaken JV & codeshare flights to LAX. For example, QF’s Australia-LAX flights are only 1/3rd O&D (per DOT filings). Through its codeshares/JV's LAX is the only AA hub with service to KIX, AKL, MEL, CAN, SHE, PPT, HEL(year-round), BNE (ORD is coming), CHC (soon), & probably some others that I left out

6. The whole point of the AS partnership from AA’s end is for AS to feed AA’s long-haul network, without a hub in LAX, the partnership adds little value for AA.

7. It sounds like you are suggesting AA will reduce to DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, & MIA domestically from LAX. If that is what you are suggesting, that is wrong. Even if AA were to cut LAX to a focus city, they would retain service to DCA, not to mention numerous other routes where they are performing well. If AA were to drop service that low they would essentially be gifting DL & UA an enormous present

8. From a logistical point of view, as I have pointed out earlier, most connections through PHX are redundant if LAX & DFW remain hubs. It should be clear at this point that AA wants East-West connections to fly through DFW, why AA has remained committed to PHX is the O&D and the ideal winter seasonal traffic.


You do not understand the enormity of the situation if you believe the hub remains. This is now about survival for the airlines. The issue we are faced with is beyond enormous. This is not about prestige or trying new strategies (TPAC hub). This is about stopping the hemorrhage that lies in front of us.

All money losing routes will be cut. They no longer can run a money losing hub like LAX because, unlike previous years, the rest of the network is no longer profitable and unable to offset money losing hubs. LAX is now reduced to 31 flights. Everything you mentioned above no longer applies. It is irrelevant. The network you saw in January 2020 or in 2019 will look significantly different in a few months. Please stop trying to justify your position. The environment that you saw previously no longer exists.

If this still doesn’t make sense to you, then you have no clue of what is going on.


One can fully grasp the enormity of the situation and conclude that LAX’s largest airline and largest hub operation is not going to be shut down.

AA’s LAX operation in May will be larger than UA’s EWR hub operation or its own DCA operation. Those aren’t closing either.

You act like LAX was a money pit which is blatantly false.


:checkmark: :checkmark:

tphuang wrote:
I don't know how much AA will cut LAX coming out of this. They are clearly not going to leave LAX, but it could be a 200 flight station instead of 225. It could be 175 light station or 150 flight station. Based on their cuts here, it looks too me PCX is in far less danger of getting large downsizing compared to LAX. If we take pre-COVID margins around the country and reduce that by 10% (may still be really optimistic here) for Q3 of 2021. Where are each carriers at in their margins by that time. And remember, they will all be low on cash. They all need to be cash positive to not file chapter 11. Where are each carriers going to cut? I think the impact of this on the economy or airline industry will be around until people start getting vaccinated. If AA was generating negative margins at LGA and LAX before this, could they really maintain the same capacity coming out of this?


I don't think anyone would argue against all airlines being smaller coming directly out of this, they are all retiring numerous aircraft, they wouldn't be able to maintain the same capacity even if they wanted.

Where I differ is when people say that AA will pull LAX all the way down to 8 destinations long-term. You can draw down service at a hub for a year or two, but that is different from turning LAX into a "focus city" long-term with only 8 destinations.

Maybe it made sense when this first started, but to judge the futures of certain hubs based on the April/May schedule doesn't make much sense now. Notice how most of the AA hubs that have small connecting banks,(or no banks) LGA, DCA, & LAX are the ones with the smallest schedules. That's because you can't sustain service right now unless you can aggregate a significant amount of flights with connecting banks (which none of those AA operations are designed to do), not to mention there are no international flights into LAX to feed the domestic flights.

Once AA officially leaves markets long-term, not just for April/May/June, I think it will be clear what their intentions are.
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MrPeanut
Posts: 157
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:11 am

MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

1. Let the record show that article was written before the AS/AA partnership was announced.

2. Let the record also show that they said they were “considering” ending service, no where does it say those flights will most likely not be back.

3. Mainland China isn’t half of TPAC from LAX, they have a JV with Qantas & JAL and AA operates 2xHND, HKG, SYD, AKL, and soon CHC on its own metal.(AA currently has more TPAC metal from LAX than UA & DL IIRC)

4. Cutting down LAX to a focus city would significantly cut down connectivity to TPAC destinations from dozens of destinations. HKG-LAX alone was has 4 total flights (AA+CX), the remaining hubs have 2 (not including JFK). Not to mention passengers having to back track to DFW, since AA has no codeshare partners on PVG or PEK to the US

5. Cutting down domestic service would significantly weaken JV & codeshare flights to LAX. For example, QF’s Australia-LAX flights are only 1/3rd O&D (per DOT filings). Through its codeshares/JV's LAX is the only AA hub with service to KIX, AKL, MEL, CAN, SHE, PPT, HEL(year-round), BNE (ORD is coming), CHC (soon), & probably some others that I left out

6. The whole point of the AS partnership from AA’s end is for AS to feed AA’s long-haul network, without a hub in LAX, the partnership adds little value for AA.

7. It sounds like you are suggesting AA will reduce to DFW, ORD, JFK, LAS, PHL, BOS, PHX, & MIA domestically from LAX. If that is what you are suggesting, that is wrong. Even if AA were to cut LAX to a focus city, they would retain service to DCA, not to mention numerous other routes where they are performing well. If AA were to drop service that low they would essentially be gifting DL & UA an enormous present

8. From a logistical point of view, as I have pointed out earlier, most connections through PHX are redundant if LAX & DFW remain hubs. It should be clear at this point that AA wants East-West connections to fly through DFW, why AA has remained committed to PHX is the O&D and the ideal winter seasonal traffic.


You do not understand the enormity of the situation if you believe the hub remains. This is now about survival for the airlines. The issue we are faced with is beyond enormous. This is not about prestige or trying new strategies (TPAC hub). This is about stopping the hemorrhage that lies in front of us.

All money losing routes will be cut. They no longer can run a money losing hub like LAX because, unlike previous years, the rest of the network is no longer profitable and unable to offset money losing hubs. LAX is now reduced to 31 flights. Everything you mentioned above no longer applies. It is irrelevant. The network you saw in January 2020 or in 2019 will look significantly different in a few months. Please stop trying to justify your position. The environment that you saw previously no longer exists.

If this still doesn’t make sense to you, then you have no clue of what is going on.


One can fully grasp the enormity of the situation and conclude that LAX’s largest airline and largest hub operation is not going to be shut down.

AA’s LAX operation in May will be larger than UA’s EWR hub operation or its own DCA operation. Those aren’t closing either.

You act like LAX was a money pit which is blatantly false.


The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.
Last edited by MrPeanut on Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
MrPeanut
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:13 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
As for your comment about LAX, the same was said about JFK. And while the LA basin has significant O/D, LAX is split amongst 4 large carriers and the LA basin split amongst 5 airports. Once you do the math, the numbers are not as large as it first appears.


LAWA publishes a pretty full set of statistics. Were it that every U.S. airport did. AA had 17 million arriving and departing passengers at LAX last year. That's as many as it carried in JFK/LGA/EWR. AA may have decided it doesn't really need a JFK hub but it needs to serve NYC (and does, with heavy LGA presence). It needs to serve LAX.


No one is disputing the fact that AA needs to serve LAX
 
SFOHORIZON
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:58 am

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. This is a different environment now.


Hasn't United also slashed service to some of it's hubs, which also practically amounts to closing the hub. I keep hearing about how their's virtually no service at EWR and SFO. Not sure that AA slashing service at LAX is that unusual. It's a sign that things are tough, which is why other airlines are also slashing service.
 
onwFan
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:00 am

MrPeanut wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
As for your comment about LAX, the same was said about JFK. And while the LA basin has significant O/D, LAX is split amongst 4 large carriers and the LA basin split amongst 5 airports. Once you do the math, the numbers are not as large as it first appears.


LAWA publishes a pretty full set of statistics. Were it that every U.S. airport did. AA had 17 million arriving and departing passengers at LAX last year. That's as many as it carried in JFK/LGA/EWR. AA may have decided it doesn't really need a JFK hub but it needs to serve NYC (and does, with heavy LGA presence). It needs to serve LAX.


No one is disputing the fact that AA needs to serve LAX

So is your suggestion that AA give up all these passengers away? Or that they will go through PHX? Neither of them makes sense especially if they are poised to have the upper edge with AS and entire T4/T5/T6 on their side.
 
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chepos
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AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:12 am

Delete
Fly the Flag!!!!
 
illinicmi
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:07 am

Seems like the title of this thread needs to be changed since the topic is now much more about LAX being in jeopardy. I mean, the fact that LAX (and JFK) are now just spokes (even if stated to be temporary) very much merits that discussion.

That said, LAX isn't going away any more than PHX is. I think PHX's status as a hub seems pretty safe considering they are still using it as a hub right now, when it's the perfect opportunity to cut it off. Will it be smaller? Sure maybe, but so will be LAX and JFK and MIA and especially PHL for a while with all their international flight cuts. But they will all be hubs.

Worst-case for LAX is that it maybe gets downgraded to something like a focus city, but will always be a primary international gateway. I'm not convinced that China traffic will ever quite be the same, but AA is relatively "limited" in service to China compared to UA and DL. So I think the Australia and Japan and Hong Kong and a little bit of China (and Philippines?) will persist, but maybe only with connections to hubs and the "big" non-hub cities. But that's at a minimum.

They need operations that are in the black more than ever right now. PHX is profitable as some here have shown, even if it's not "as" profitable as DFW or CLT. Who cares right now, income is still income. If LAX isn't profitable, they will make whatever changes they have to so it is.
 
Vctony
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:08 am

Honestly, unless we enter the Great Depression the May AA schedule is probably the floor for AA ops at PHX. PHX will essentially be a "focus city" in May. When things recover I don't really see it being scaled down to less than an 80-90 daily departures station with only flights to the other hubs on slow days (Tuesdays and Saturdays) which is what the May schedule has. I don't see the operation getting any smaller than that.
 
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jfklganyc
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:25 am

AA JFK 3 flights

Just wow.
 
MAH4546
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:44 am

Vctony wrote:
Honestly, unless we enter the Great Depression the May AA schedule is probably the floor for AA ops at PHX. PHX will essentially be a "focus city" in May. When things recover I don't really see it being scaled down to less than an 80-90 daily departures station with only flights to the other hubs on slow days (Tuesdays and Saturdays) which is what the May schedule has. I don't see the operation getting any smaller than that.


The May schedule for PHX (and other hubs) is way too optimistic. I think it'll shrink down even further.
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:45 am

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

You do not understand the enormity of the situation if you believe the hub remains. This is now about survival for the airlines. The issue we are faced with is beyond enormous. This is not about prestige or trying new strategies (TPAC hub). This is about stopping the hemorrhage that lies in front of us.

All money losing routes will be cut. They no longer can run a money losing hub like LAX because, unlike previous years, the rest of the network is no longer profitable and unable to offset money losing hubs. LAX is now reduced to 31 flights. Everything you mentioned above no longer applies. It is irrelevant. The network you saw in January 2020 or in 2019 will look significantly different in a few months. Please stop trying to justify your position. The environment that you saw previously no longer exists.

If this still doesn’t make sense to you, then you have no clue of what is going on.


One can fully grasp the enormity of the situation and conclude that LAX’s largest airline and largest hub operation is not going to be shut down.

AA’s LAX operation in May will be larger than UA’s EWR hub operation or its own DCA operation. Those aren’t closing either.

You act like LAX was a money pit which is blatantly false.


The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


You are delusional man. No point discussing further, you don't seem to grasp basic concepts on airline hubs and networks.

Not only will LAX continue to be a hub, but as AA adds back capacity to the West, and needs to limit, I bet AA takes that capacity from PHX (which is going to be down to 22 daily flights on Tuesdays and Saturdays soon!). Bookmark this a year from now.
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Vctony
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:59 am

MAH4546 wrote:
Vctony wrote:
Honestly, unless we enter the Great Depression the May AA schedule is probably the floor for AA ops at PHX. PHX will essentially be a "focus city" in May. When things recover I don't really see it being scaled down to less than an 80-90 daily departures station with only flights to the other hubs on slow days (Tuesdays and Saturdays) which is what the May schedule has. I don't see the operation getting any smaller than that.


The May schedule for PHX (and other hubs) is way too optimistic. I think it'll shrink down even further.


I'm using the May schedule for PHX as the "floor" as to what the AA may look like in normal times if the hub was downgraded to a "focus city". I agree it may be too optimistic for the current environment.

I don't think AA will completely abandon PHX so the May schedule is an idea of what PHX could look like if AA reduced it to a "focus city".
 
alasizon
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:09 am

MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

One can fully grasp the enormity of the situation and conclude that LAX’s largest airline and largest hub operation is not going to be shut down.

AA’s LAX operation in May will be larger than UA’s EWR hub operation or its own DCA operation. Those aren’t closing either.

You act like LAX was a money pit which is blatantly false.


The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


You are delusional man. No point discussing further, you don't seem to grasp basic concepts on airline hubs and networks.

Not only will LAX continue to be a hub, but as AA adds back capacity to the West, and needs to limit, I bet AA takes that capacity from PHX (which is going to be down to 22 daily flights on Tuesdays and Saturdays soon!). Bookmark this a year from now.


Using the benchmark that PHX is down to 22 flights in Tue/Sat is a poor measurement particularly since LAX only has a total of 30 flights every day compared with the 85 that PHX has on the other five days a week.

When demand returns, LAX and PHX aren't going to be competing for the same passengers. LAX is O&D, intra-California and INTL focused while PHX is focused on moving massive domestic connections and connecting the West.
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chepos
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AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:30 am

Yeah, this thread has kind of derailed itself. Looking at April/May schedules and trying to predict the long term operation at a station is disingenuous.

Let’s put this into perspective, UA will dramatically shrink the EWR, LAX and SFO operation in the coming weeks, we all know those operations are not going stay at this much smaller size for the long run. B6 will shrink it’s NYC footprint, obviously B6 is not staying at 30 flights between EWR/JFK (and dropping LGA) in the long run. Every airline has shrunk the schedule, few people are flying and the airlines need to adapt the schedule to match demand. Even at these reduces schedules there seems to still be a whole lot of overcapacity for the amount of people flying.


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blacksoviet
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:20 am

How many gates did AA lose when Terminal 2 closed? Terminal 2 has been sitting abandoned for over a month.
 
Vctony
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:37 am

blacksoviet wrote:
How many gates did AA lose when Terminal 2 closed? Terminal 2 has been sitting abandoned for over a month.


AA didn't lose any gates when Terminal 2 closed.

AA, WN along with all international airlines (except AC) use Terminal 4. The Terminal 2 airlines (and AC) moved to T3N (which was renovated and had been closed for about 2 years prior to the move).

WN and the airport are currently constructing an 8 gate expansion of T4 (the S1 concourse).
 
wenders825
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:31 am

jfklganyc wrote:
AA JFK 3 flights

Just wow.

and what about UA at EWR?
 
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chepos
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:39 am

wenders825 wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
AA JFK 3 flights

Just wow.

and what about UA at EWR?

He does not have to look very far to wow himself, B6 themselves can’t slash flights fast enough out of JFK for May.


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