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Ishrion
Posts: 2832
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:10 pm

Ishrion wrote:
AA is scheduling more changes to some long-haul routes per aa.com's booking. This includes the first scheduled 772 service for CLT.

(!) CLT-MUC resumption July 7 confirmed 772 launch replacing A332
(!) CLT-LHR resumption July 7 going 772 replacing A333
DFW-LIM pushed back to Oct 25 - still 788 replacing 752
PHL-LHR resumption June 4 - 788 replacing A333

Pics of the booking if anyone needs it: https://twitter.com/IshrionA/status/1254278981429403648


DFW-LIM wasn't pushed back, it's on August 19 with a 3x weekly flight. (Airlineroute says Aug 18, but aa.com says 19)

More changes here: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-26apr20/
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2832
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:33 pm

Some updates today:
- JFK-LHR resumes June 7, 2x weekly
- LAX-LHR resumes July 7
- ORD-ATH resumes June 5, 5x weekly
- ORD-DUB resumes June 5, 5x weekly
- ORD-LHR resumes June 4, 5x weekly
- PHL/RDU-LHR resumes July 7

- JFK-EZE/GRU resumes July 7
- MIA-GIG July 7
- MIA-EZE/GRU/SCL resume June 4

Vasu Raja:
We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it. Our hubs are a massive asset for us as we think of a very focused customer proposition coming out of this,"


https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179
 
Brickell305
Posts: 1019
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 2:07 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:42 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Some updates today:
- JFK-LHR resumes June 7, 2x weekly
- LAX-LHR resumes July 7
- ORD-ATH resumes June 5, 5x weekly
- ORD-DUB resumes June 5, 5x weekly
- ORD-LHR resumes June 4, 5x weekly
- PHL/RDU-LHR resumes July 7

- JFK-EZE/GRU resumes July 7
- MIA-GIG July 7
- MIA-EZE/GRU/SCL resume June 4

Vasu Raja:
We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it. Our hubs are a massive asset for us as we think of a very focused customer proposition coming out of this,"


https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179

How are EZE flights returning in June and July when Argentina has banned international flights until September?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/coronav ... ber-1.html
 
737max8
Posts: 614
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2015 4:13 am

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:55 pm

Ishrion wrote:
Some updates today:
- JFK-LHR resumes June 7, 2x weekly
- LAX-LHR resumes July 7
- ORD-ATH resumes June 5, 5x weekly
- ORD-DUB resumes June 5, 5x weekly
- ORD-LHR resumes June 4, 5x weekly
- PHL/RDU-LHR resumes July 7

- JFK-EZE/GRU resumes July 7
- MIA-GIG July 7
- MIA-EZE/GRU/SCL resume June 4

Vasu Raja:
We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it. Our hubs are a massive asset for us as we think of a very focused customer proposition coming out of this,"


https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179


EZE? How are they getting around this

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/worl ... ember.html
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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Midwestindy
Posts: 5267
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:15 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

You do not understand the enormity of the situation if you believe the hub remains. This is now about survival for the airlines. The issue we are faced with is beyond enormous. This is not about prestige or trying new strategies (TPAC hub). This is about stopping the hemorrhage that lies in front of us.

All money losing routes will be cut. They no longer can run a money losing hub like LAX because, unlike previous years, the rest of the network is no longer profitable and unable to offset money losing hubs. LAX is now reduced to 31 flights. Everything you mentioned above no longer applies. It is irrelevant. The network you saw in January 2020 or in 2019 will look significantly different in a few months. Please stop trying to justify your position. The environment that you saw previously no longer exists.

If this still doesn’t make sense to you, then you have no clue of what is going on.


One can fully grasp the enormity of the situation and conclude that LAX’s largest airline and largest hub operation is not going to be shut down.

AA’s LAX operation in May will be larger than UA’s EWR hub operation or its own DCA operation. Those aren’t closing either.

You act like LAX was a money pit which is blatantly false.


The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


Massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing LAX:

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
HoyaMike
Posts: 4
Joined: Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:35 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:05 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

One can fully grasp the enormity of the situation and conclude that LAX’s largest airline and largest hub operation is not going to be shut down.

AA’s LAX operation in May will be larger than UA’s EWR hub operation or its own DCA operation. Those aren’t closing either.

You act like LAX was a money pit which is blatantly false.


The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


Massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing LAX:

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179


Also, massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing PHX.
Similar result as your dreams of TPAC to Indy.
 
Austin787
Posts: 424
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2016 11:39 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:13 pm

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179

That's just corporate speak. Airlines (not just AA) have said "no plans to close hubs" - that is until they decide to close one.
 
slcdeltarumd11
Posts: 4752
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2004 7:30 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:21 pm

With international travel dead for the foreseeable future, PHX is even less likely to get dehubbed. Domestic travel at a low operatibg cost airport like PHX for 2021. LAX will suffer more than PHX too expensive for AA right now and no Internatiobal flights they have to feed. PHX is not going anywhere its NYC, ORD, LAX that will be too expensive for AA in 2021. I bet alot of furloughs come to those areas specifically October 1 when the massive layoffs come. AA is gonna need more loans and be very short on cash
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5267
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:21 pm

HoyaMike wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


Massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing LAX:

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179


Also, massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing PHX.
Similar result as your dreams of TPAC to Indy.


Why would I care if AA dehubbed Phoenix? I get why you would, but I have no affiliation to PHX, let alone LAX

And how does Indy fit in to this discussion?

Austin787 wrote:
"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179

That's just corporate speak. Airlines (not just AA) have said "no plans to close hubs" - that is until they decide to close one.


No other US airline has explicitly said that to my knowledge
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
Detroit313
Posts: 544
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:56 pm

Re: American Airlines Network Thread - 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:27 pm

How in the world are they going to operate Athens and Buenos Aires?

Good luck with that AA...! Let us know if those countries let you in!
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 880
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

AA Closing Down Miami Regional Operations May 7th through June 3rd

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:47 pm

AA is stopping all regional flights out of Miami until June 3rd.
Lack of International flying means feeding Miami is wildly unprofitable at the moment.
https://milestomemories.com/aa-shutdown ... perations/
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:59 pm

AA may not "close" any hubs but outside of DFW and CLT what those "hubs" will look like won't be a "hub circa" January 2020.
 
onwFan
Posts: 436
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:11 pm

Miamiairport wrote:
AA may not "close" any hubs but outside of DFW and CLT what those "hubs" will look like won't be a "hub circa" January 2020.

What you say is just something that is going to be true for most hubs of most airlines. So nothing big there.
 
TYWoolman
Posts: 607
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 8:24 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:20 pm

Doesn't make sense for airlines to close hubs in this environment because usually hub closures are accompanied by some remnant traffic flows being transferred to other hubs for the sake of efficiency. But all other hubs are waiting for traffic to rebound just the same. It will be prudent for all airlines to maintain shell footprints everywhere. This pandemic is a macro problem.
 
ctrabs0114
Posts: 1079
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:09 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:21 pm

And this is on top of AA reporting a $2.2 BILLION loss for 1Q2020. AA may not "de-hub" PHX, LAX or any other hub that's not DFW/CLT the way we might be thinking, but don't think for one second that PHX is going to be at the same level pre-COVID.
2019: DAL, MCI, PHX, LAS, DFW, SAT, ORD, SLC, SEA, DTW, PHL, MIA, LAX; B73G (WN x3), B738 (WN, AA, DL), A20N (NK), MD83 (AA), B788 (AA x2), CS1 (DL), B739 (DL), B712 (DL), B752 (AA), B763 (AA), B77W (AA), B789 (AA)
Next: TBA
 
strfyr51
Posts: 4980
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2012 5:04 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:30 pm

illinicmi wrote:
Seems like the title of this thread needs to be changed since the topic is now much more about LAX being in jeopardy. I mean, the fact that LAX (and JFK) are now just spokes (even if stated to be temporary) very much merits that discussion.

That said, LAX isn't going away any more than PHX is. I think PHX's status as a hub seems pretty safe considering they are still using it as a hub right now, when it's the perfect opportunity to cut it off. Will it be smaller? Sure maybe, but so will be LAX and JFK and MIA and especially PHL for a while with all their international flight cuts. But they will all be hubs.

Worst-case for LAX is that it maybe gets downgraded to something like a focus city, but will always be a primary international gateway. I'm not convinced that China traffic will ever quite be the same, but AA is relatively "limited" in service to China compared to UA and DL. So I think the Australia and Japan and Hong Kong and a little bit of China (and Philippines?) will persist, but maybe only with connections to hubs and the "big" non-hub cities. But that's at a minimum.

They need operations that are in the black more than ever right now. PHX is profitable as some here have shown, even if it's not "as" profitable as DFW or CLT. Who cares right now, income is still income. If LAX isn't profitable, they will make whatever changes they have to so it is.

somehow? the aim here is NOT to dev=bate Gateway cities like LAX, or JFK. Those cities will ALWAYS have traffic unless they drop off into the ocean. PHX? Is now on par with PHL,IAD, OAK, SJC and SAN. they're damn good cities to BE in no matter what. would you get rid on SNA, RNO, or LAS? NO! So? whethr they slow their roll at PHX in these tough times due to lack of traffic? This is a temporary problem which we SHALL overcome! A LOT of airplanes are sitting on the ground now but? We Will overcome this so this whole line of reasoning? Is premature and Defeatist! You guys need to get a GRIP!
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 157
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:52 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

One can fully grasp the enormity of the situation and conclude that LAX’s largest airline and largest hub operation is not going to be shut down.

AA’s LAX operation in May will be larger than UA’s EWR hub operation or its own DCA operation. Those aren’t closing either.

You act like LAX was a money pit which is blatantly false.


The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


Massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing LAX:

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179


LOL. No airline is going to announce any major network changes before September 30th, even though it’s a foregone conclusion. Every airline has said they are coming out of this environment much smaller. Where do you think that capacity is going to be removed from? Do you honestly believe it’s coming out of profitable parts of their network???

There is a reason why LA was reduced as severely as it was in favor of PHX as a domestic connecting hub post COVID. I’m not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to understand. LA will look very much like JFK did shortly before COVID. It will be a focus city catering mostly to local traffic.
 
LCDFlight
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:22 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Fri May 01, 2020 12:21 am

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

One can fully grasp the enormity of the situation and conclude that LAX’s largest airline and largest hub operation is not going to be shut down.

AA’s LAX operation in May will be larger than UA’s EWR hub operation or its own DCA operation. Those aren’t closing either.

You act like LAX was a money pit which is blatantly false.


The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


Massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing LAX:

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179


This reminds me of Arpey’s admission that he had no plans developed for the upcoming Chapter 11 process. At this point, it is AA management’s fiduciary duty to dramatically scale down the airline. There is zero time to waste. Labor negotiations should begin on furloughs. Prolonging the inevitable makes no sense. Their head is in the clouds. But there were warning signs of this for a couple years. AA will “never lose money.” These guys are either lying or they are incompetent. Third option: angling for more handouts. But others are more deserving.

At some eventual point they will need to pay the piper. Just handing the company’s entire asset base to the staff doesn’t make sense. Fiduciary duty is to the shareholders. It was management’s duty to be ready for a crisis.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3794
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Fri May 01, 2020 2:12 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
With international travel dead for the foreseeable future, PHX is even less likely to get dehubbed. Domestic travel at a low operatibg cost airport like PHX for 2021. LAX will suffer more than PHX too expensive for AA right now and no Internatiobal flights they have to feed. PHX is not going anywhere its NYC, ORD, LAX that will be too expensive for AA in 2021. I bet alot of furloughs come to those areas specifically October 1 when the massive layoffs come. AA is gonna need more loans and be very short on cash


I think we are reading waaay to much into AA's short term LAX service reductions. LAX's niche in AA's network is as a primarily O/D domestic hub and as AA's primary transpacific gateway. California is in lockdown so there is little O/D traffic at the moment and international borders are essentially closed so the gateway aspect is dead so it makes perfect sense to temporarily cull LAX (you will note UA and DL did the same). This does not mean that PHX has defeated LAX for hub rights, it just means that LAX's purpose in the network has been far more affected by this pandemic than PHX's in the short term. The medium and long term affects are still unknown so PHX should not get cocky.
 
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Midwestindy
Posts: 5267
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Fri May 01, 2020 2:15 am

MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


Massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing LAX:

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179


LOL. No airline is going to announce any major network changes before September 30th, even though it’s a foregone conclusion. Every airline has said they are coming out of this environment much smaller. Where do you think that capacity is going to be removed from? Do you honestly believe it’s coming out of profitable parts of their network???

There is a reason why LA was reduced as severely as it was in favor of PHX as a domestic connecting hub post COVID. I’m not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to understand. LA will look very much like JFK did shortly before COVID. It will be a focus city catering mostly to local traffic.


You are misguided, this is from Vasu today: "But for right now as we look at our schedule, clearly we have our biggest connecting complexes that are out there, primarily so that we can serve the vast majority of communities under the CARES Act with a minimum of resource expenditure, so that’s all you kind of see in our existing schedule today. Everything beyond it remains to be seen yet"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434157 ... art=single

First, Phoenix is retaining more service than LAX because of the CARES act, AA's LAX hub has no unique markets, and therefore service does not need to be retained there to comply with the act. Secondly, LAX is not a large domestic connecting complex, DCA & LGA are similarly not large domestic connecting complexes and both were cut to the same level (if not worse) for May.

Nearly every hub will be smaller coming out of this, but that doesn't mean any hub will be closed, especially if traffic rebounds over the next few years.
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 157
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub

Fri May 01, 2020 3:33 am

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing LAX:

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179


LOL. No airline is going to announce any major network changes before September 30th, even though it’s a foregone conclusion. Every airline has said they are coming out of this environment much smaller. Where do you think that capacity is going to be removed from? Do you honestly believe it’s coming out of profitable parts of their network???

There is a reason why LA was reduced as severely as it was in favor of PHX as a domestic connecting hub post COVID. I’m not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to understand. LA will look very much like JFK did shortly before COVID. It will be a focus city catering mostly to local traffic.


You are misguided, this is from Vasu today: "But for right now as we look at our schedule, clearly we have our biggest connecting complexes that are out there, primarily so that we can serve the vast majority of communities under the CARES Act with a minimum of resource expenditure, so that’s all you kind of see in our existing schedule today. Everything beyond it remains to be seen yet"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434157 ... art=single

First, Phoenix is retaining more service than LAX because of the CARES act, AA's LAX hub has no unique markets, and therefore service does not need to be retained there to comply with the act. Secondly, LAX is not a large domestic connecting complex, DCA & LGA are similarly not large domestic connecting complexes and both were cut to the same level (if not worse) for May.

Nearly every hub will be smaller coming out of this, but that doesn't mean any hub will be closed, especially if traffic rebounds over the next few years.


Exactly, you just said it. LAX is not a domestic connecting complex. Which means it’s only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway. Unfortunately for AA, their TPAC flying was unprofitable, international traffic is dead in the near future, and airlines have said that business travel (and their high revenues) will never return to the same levels they were historically. Therefore, LAX’s purpose in the future changes greatly from its purpose in the past. Half of their TPAC flying was to China. That’s not coming back and those were the worst performers. You don’t need a TPAC gateway to support a route to Tokyo and one to Sydney.

As for your unique market comment, PHX only has 3 unique markets. All of which could have easily been covered at either LAX, DFW, or added on as a tag. So if LAX was that critical they would have easily been able to accommodate it.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3794
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub

Fri May 01, 2020 4:26 am

MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

LOL. No airline is going to announce any major network changes before September 30th, even though it’s a foregone conclusion. Every airline has said they are coming out of this environment much smaller. Where do you think that capacity is going to be removed from? Do you honestly believe it’s coming out of profitable parts of their network???

There is a reason why LA was reduced as severely as it was in favor of PHX as a domestic connecting hub post COVID. I’m not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to understand. LA will look very much like JFK did shortly before COVID. It will be a focus city catering mostly to local traffic.


You are misguided, this is from Vasu today: "But for right now as we look at our schedule, clearly we have our biggest connecting complexes that are out there, primarily so that we can serve the vast majority of communities under the CARES Act with a minimum of resource expenditure, so that’s all you kind of see in our existing schedule today. Everything beyond it remains to be seen yet"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434157 ... art=single

First, Phoenix is retaining more service than LAX because of the CARES act, AA's LAX hub has no unique markets, and therefore service does not need to be retained there to comply with the act. Secondly, LAX is not a large domestic connecting complex, DCA & LGA are similarly not large domestic connecting complexes and both were cut to the same level (if not worse) for May.

Nearly every hub will be smaller coming out of this, but that doesn't mean any hub will be closed, especially if traffic rebounds over the next few years.


Exactly, you just said it. LAX is not a domestic connecting complex. Which means it’s only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway. Unfortunately for AA, their TPAC flying was unprofitable, international traffic is dead in the near future, and airlines have said that business travel (and their high revenues) will never return to the same levels they were historically. Therefore, LAX’s purpose in the future changes greatly from its purpose in the past. Half of their TPAC flying was to China. That’s not coming back and those were the worst performers. You don’t need a TPAC gateway to support a route to Tokyo and one to Sydney.

As for your unique market comment, PHX only has 3 unique markets. All of which could have easily been covered at either LAX, DFW, or added on as a tag. So if LAX was that critical they would have easily been able to accommodate it.


LAX is the #1 O&D airport in the world and serve one of the wealthiest regions on earth. It does not need domestic connecting passengers to support the service levels it receives. LAX had around 71 million solely O&D pax in 2019 which is more than 50% higher than PHX had in total. You cannot just jump over that. American did connect some TPAC passengers there but that is not what makes or breaks the hub; LAX O&D is.
 
Nicknuzzii
Posts: 1150
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:57 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Fri May 01, 2020 4:32 am

Why is the thread even continuing after AA has said they aren’t leaving PHX or anywhere anytime soon?
 
MAH4546
Posts: 26219
Joined: Wed Jan 24, 2001 1:44 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub

Fri May 01, 2020 6:25 am

MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

LOL. No airline is going to announce any major network changes before September 30th, even though it’s a foregone conclusion. Every airline has said they are coming out of this environment much smaller. Where do you think that capacity is going to be removed from? Do you honestly believe it’s coming out of profitable parts of their network???

There is a reason why LA was reduced as severely as it was in favor of PHX as a domestic connecting hub post COVID. I’m not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to understand. LA will look very much like JFK did shortly before COVID. It will be a focus city catering mostly to local traffic.


You are misguided, this is from Vasu today: "But for right now as we look at our schedule, clearly we have our biggest connecting complexes that are out there, primarily so that we can serve the vast majority of communities under the CARES Act with a minimum of resource expenditure, so that’s all you kind of see in our existing schedule today. Everything beyond it remains to be seen yet"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434157 ... art=single

First, Phoenix is retaining more service than LAX because of the CARES act, AA's LAX hub has no unique markets, and therefore service does not need to be retained there to comply with the act. Secondly, LAX is not a large domestic connecting complex, DCA & LGA are similarly not large domestic connecting complexes and both were cut to the same level (if not worse) for May.

Nearly every hub will be smaller coming out of this, but that doesn't mean any hub will be closed, especially if traffic rebounds over the next few years.


Exactly, you just said it. LAX is not a domestic connecting complex. Which means it’s only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway. Unfortunately for AA, their TPAC flying was unprofitable, international traffic is dead in the near future, and airlines have said that business travel (and their high revenues) will never return to the same levels they were historically. Therefore, LAX’s purpose in the future changes greatly from its purpose in the past. Half of their TPAC flying was to China. That’s not coming back and those were the worst performers. You don’t need a TPAC gateway to support a route to Tokyo and one to Sydney.

As for your unique market comment, PHX only has 3 unique markets. All of which could have easily been covered at either LAX, DFW, or added on as a tag. So if LAX was that critical they would have easily been able to accommodate it.


AA has a substantial O&D operation at LAX. It’s also operating more flights from LAX than PHX on any given Tuesday or Saturday. Stop reading into things. LAX isn’t going anywhere and as the market recovers and traffic spreads thin, no doubt PHX will potentially shrink short term to assist LAX, which is far more important to AA’s network.
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Lootess
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Fri May 01, 2020 6:44 am

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Why is the thread even continuing after AA has said they aren’t leaving PHX or anywhere anytime soon?


Well they can't cut a domestic hub "now" because of CARES, just like how they can't furlough because of getting payroll support until September. Doesn't mean either won't happen.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: AA's PHX Hub

Fri May 01, 2020 1:48 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

LOL. No airline is going to announce any major network changes before September 30th, even though it’s a foregone conclusion. Every airline has said they are coming out of this environment much smaller. Where do you think that capacity is going to be removed from? Do you honestly believe it’s coming out of profitable parts of their network???

There is a reason why LA was reduced as severely as it was in favor of PHX as a domestic connecting hub post COVID. I’m not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to understand. LA will look very much like JFK did shortly before COVID. It will be a focus city catering mostly to local traffic.


You are misguided, this is from Vasu today: "But for right now as we look at our schedule, clearly we have our biggest connecting complexes that are out there, primarily so that we can serve the vast majority of communities under the CARES Act with a minimum of resource expenditure, so that’s all you kind of see in our existing schedule today. Everything beyond it remains to be seen yet"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434157 ... art=single

First, Phoenix is retaining more service than LAX because of the CARES act, AA's LAX hub has no unique markets, and therefore service does not need to be retained there to comply with the act. Secondly, LAX is not a large domestic connecting complex, DCA & LGA are similarly not large domestic connecting complexes and both were cut to the same level (if not worse) for May.

Nearly every hub will be smaller coming out of this, but that doesn't mean any hub will be closed, especially if traffic rebounds over the next few years.


Exactly, you just said it. LAX is not a domestic connecting complex. Which means it’s only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway. Unfortunately for AA, their TPAC flying was unprofitable, international traffic is dead in the near future, and airlines have said that business travel (and their high revenues) will never return to the same levels they were historically. Therefore, LAX’s purpose in the future changes greatly from its purpose in the past. Half of their TPAC flying was to China. That’s not coming back and those were the worst performers. You don’t need a TPAC gateway to support a route to Tokyo and one to Sydney.

As for your unique market comment, PHX only has 3 unique markets. All of which could have easily been covered at either LAX, DFW, or added on as a tag. So if LAX was that critical they would have easily been able to accommodate it.


So many false statements, where to begin.....

1. "It's only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway," that is not true, LAX also holds some of AA's highest revenue generating routes including JFK-LAX, you can't tap into those markets without a hub in LAX. In addition, LAX is also an enormous market for AA's partners. Having no real hub in either LAX + NYC would handicap AA long after this pandemic issue passes. Not every hub needs to be a pure play connecting complex, and to cut everything because some flights are unprofitable would be a mistake

2. To be clear, international flying being dead right now, does not mean it will be dead in 1-3 years. Cutting int'l routes for the next year or so obviously makes sense, but cutting everything beyond that is potentially reckless.

3. US airlines are not saying business travel will never return to previous levels, I'd like to see which airlines are saying that. Read the reports from the Global Business Travel Association, they survey their corporate partners regularly, and almost none of the member companies are expecting to not return to close normal by the end of 2021. The most pessimist I have seen is Gary Kelly, who talked about a five year recovery for WN's business travel back to 2019 levels, but that is significantly different from never returning to 2019 levels ever again.
https://www.gbta.org/blog/the-first-sig ... bta-study/

4. Let's say AA does cut HKG, PVG, and PEK, there is still LAX-Hawaii which they serve at almost 15 flights a day, plus LAX-GRU/EZE/MEX/AKL/LHR + BZE/SJD/PVR/MZT/YVR, in addition to over a dozen of partner flights. If those China routes are gone International from LAX will still be important to AA, especially since they have a JV with JAL and QF, and they share the PnL with both airlines on routes to LAX.

5. As I have just mentioned LAX is not build as a domestic connecting complex, keeping flights from smaller markets to LAX right now makes no sense as there will be few places to connect to since LAX doesn't have banks in the traditional sense. The logic of LAX not being important, because they are cutting it heavily in May, falls apart in the fact that they have also slashed DCA & LGA.
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rbavfan
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Fri May 01, 2020 1:57 pm

N649DL wrote:
dfwjim1 wrote:
PHXWRLD wrote:

AA's PHX is in no way in jeopardy, PHX is one of the fastest growing cities in the US and is already one of the largest and and the most tourism in the US outside of Florida and Vegas. PHX is also one of AA's most profitable hubs. Cutting PHX would be a terrible idea, even if a recession comes. However, Doug may choose to make the wrong decision, but he will be fired soon hopefully and somebody who understands PHX's potential will replace him.


Finding it difficult to believe that PHX lags only behind Las Vegas and Florida in tourism.


I think you would have to be in PHX in February where hoards of people from ORD, MSP, or OMA are flying in and so happy they escaped the cold. There are tons of Snowbirds in PHX from the Midwest plus you have Scottsdale which is a huge clubbing destination. That and PHX proper is the 6th largest city in America behind PHL.

bfitzflyer wrote:
If covid continues any but the largest hubs will be at risk, so for AA that mean anything outside of DFW, CLT and PHL could be at risk. For DL that means anything outside of ATL, DTW and MSP and for UA ,anything outside of SFO, DEN, ORD and EWR could be at risk.


IAH is at risk? I would think they'll recover from the virus quickly because of the heat. DEN is going to be interesting because the virus is slowing there but demand has fallen off sharply as the mountains are closed.

I would think EWR with all of it's necessary TATL flying is the most at risk of being downsized and the fact the virus is spreading up there like a brush fire. IAD could be a key market for TATL once things get back into place over EWR. My family is up there and it sounds like absolute hell.


I've works for Phoenix magazines covering the clubbing scene. Clubbers from NY, Miami, Los Angeles, Palm springs & Vegas would disagree with you on that comment. People from those markets we talk to laugh at people that compare the club scene in Phoenix to those in the top markets around the world. While I'd love if we were, we are not anywhere close to the level or quality needed.

Mind you PHX is one of the largest markets in the US. We were directly behind CLT at number 13 & ahead of IAH, MIA, BOS, MSP, FLL, DTW, PHL passenger numbers in 2018. While we may not be as high profit/passenger we are very important hub for the US Market.
 
rbavfan
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Fri May 01, 2020 2:18 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

One can fully grasp the enormity of the situation and conclude that LAX’s largest airline and largest hub operation is not going to be shut down.

AA’s LAX operation in May will be larger than UA’s EWR hub operation or its own DCA operation. Those aren’t closing either.

You act like LAX was a money pit which is blatantly false.


The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


Massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing LAX:

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179


You realize when they merged TWA into their system they said they would not de hub STL. Took them less than a year to do just that. Followed by WN adding terminal space and taking all that traffic from AA.
 
Westerwaelder
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Fri May 01, 2020 2:28 pm

rbavfan wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


Massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing LAX:

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179


You realize when they merged TWA into their system they said they would not de hub STL. Took them less than a year to do just that. Followed by WN adding terminal space and taking all that traffic from AA.


I agree. Just warm words so not to alarm or alienate the good people working there. Things change and probable never quicker so than now. Yesterday's promise is forgotten tomorrow.
 
rbavfan
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Re: AA's PHX Hub

Fri May 01, 2020 2:33 pm

MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

You are misguided, this is from Vasu today: "But for right now as we look at our schedule, clearly we have our biggest connecting complexes that are out there, primarily so that we can serve the vast majority of communities under the CARES Act with a minimum of resource expenditure, so that’s all you kind of see in our existing schedule today. Everything beyond it remains to be seen yet"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434157 ... art=single

First, Phoenix is retaining more service than LAX because of the CARES act, AA's LAX hub has no unique markets, and therefore service does not need to be retained there to comply with the act. Secondly, LAX is not a large domestic connecting complex, DCA & LGA are similarly not large domestic connecting complexes and both were cut to the same level (if not worse) for May.

Nearly every hub will be smaller coming out of this, but that doesn't mean any hub will be closed, especially if traffic rebounds over the next few years.


Exactly, you just said it. LAX is not a domestic connecting complex. Which means it’s only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway. Unfortunately for AA, their TPAC flying was unprofitable, international traffic is dead in the near future, and airlines have said that business travel (and their high revenues) will never return to the same levels they were historically. Therefore, LAX’s purpose in the future changes greatly from its purpose in the past. Half of their TPAC flying was to China. That’s not coming back and those were the worst performers. You don’t need a TPAC gateway to support a route to Tokyo and one to Sydney.

As for your unique market comment, PHX only has 3 unique markets. All of which could have easily been covered at either LAX, DFW, or added on as a tag. So if LAX was that critical they would have easily been able to accommodate it.


AA has a substantial O&D operation at LAX. It’s also operating more flights from LAX than PHX on any given Tuesday or Saturday. Stop reading into things. LAX isn’t going anywhere and as the market recovers and traffic spreads thin, no doubt PHX will potentially shrink short term to assist LAX, which is far more important to AA’s network.



So what you are saying is on 2 days a week LAX has more flights than PHX so it's a more important hub? Why is that. As far as I know all those international flights from LAX operate on more than 2 days a week. So your logic would mean PHX is more important to AA than LAX.
 
Miamiairport
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Fri May 01, 2020 4:12 pm

No one knows what travel will be like in one year from now. Since we have never had unemployment close to this in the post 75 year WW2 period no one can predict what the business cycle will look like. We also don't know what lingering health issues will persist. Airline management (like management in industry after industry) is flying blind operating day to day. The "unknown" is so "unknown" one can't even speculate what will happen. Airline management has to put the best foot forward like saying we aren't going to close hubs or defer the delivery of certain a/c. But if all 4 wheels far off the car you can bet drastic measures will be taken. Other than CLT and DFW certain hubs could become more focus city.
 
whywhytee
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Fri May 01, 2020 4:16 pm

rbavfan wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


Massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing LAX:

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179


You realize when they merged TWA into their system they said they would not de hub STL. Took them less than a year to do just that. Followed by WN adding terminal space and taking all that traffic from AA.

I thought they kept it until the recession
 
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spinotter
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapor

Fri May 01, 2020 5:54 pm

HoyaMike wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

The hub lost money during great economic times! What do you think is going to happen over the next several years as the industry climbs its way out of this mess? Airlines are fighting for survival and cash right now. Do you honestly believe any airline is going to keep a money losing hub when the entire network is bleeding cash? It’s not going to happen. AA has already closed down the hub in every aspect without actually saying it publicly. You can be in denial all you want but it’s gone. Travel is not going to bottom out until next year. AA will retrench to a few hubs, the rest are gone. This is a different environment now.


Massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing LAX:

"We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it," says American network head Vasu Raja

https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/12 ... 2345778179


Also, massive blow to your dreams of dehubbing PHX.
Similar result as your dreams of TPAC to Indy.


Such ad hominem attacks are unpleasant and likely untrue. Can't you even be nice in coronavirus time? Stranger things than the dehubbing of PHX have occurred in the past. Let your imagination roam a little bit. Wht not?
 
N649DL
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeapordy?

Fri May 01, 2020 9:51 pm

rbavfan wrote:
N649DL wrote:
dfwjim1 wrote:

Finding it difficult to believe that PHX lags only behind Las Vegas and Florida in tourism.


I think you would have to be in PHX in February where hoards of people from ORD, MSP, or OMA are flying in and so happy they escaped the cold. There are tons of Snowbirds in PHX from the Midwest plus you have Scottsdale which is a huge clubbing destination. That and PHX proper is the 6th largest city in America behind PHL.

bfitzflyer wrote:
If covid continues any but the largest hubs will be at risk, so for AA that mean anything outside of DFW, CLT and PHL could be at risk. For DL that means anything outside of ATL, DTW and MSP and for UA ,anything outside of SFO, DEN, ORD and EWR could be at risk.


IAH is at risk? I would think they'll recover from the virus quickly because of the heat. DEN is going to be interesting because the virus is slowing there but demand has fallen off sharply as the mountains are closed.

I would think EWR with all of it's necessary TATL flying is the most at risk of being downsized and the fact the virus is spreading up there like a brush fire. IAD could be a key market for TATL once things get back into place over EWR. My family is up there and it sounds like absolute hell.


I've works for Phoenix magazines covering the clubbing scene. Clubbers from NY, Miami, Los Angeles, Palm springs & Vegas would disagree with you on that comment. People from those markets we talk to laugh at people that compare the club scene in Phoenix to those in the top markets around the world. While I'd love if we were, we are not anywhere close to the level or quality needed.

Mind you PHX is one of the largest markets in the US. We were directly behind CLT at number 13 & ahead of IAH, MIA, BOS, MSP, FLL, DTW, PHL passenger numbers in 2018. While we may not be as high profit/passenger we are very important hub for the US Market.


Oh Jesus Christ. Which Magazines? Some free crap Tabloids or something? I don't care enough to look it up, I'm sticking up for PHX as a mainline AA hub is the thing. Stop nitpicking. Nobody likes that. Clubbers are going to be White Trash Tourists in Scottsdale and I have no intention in partying it up with them anyway
 
F9Animal
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Fri May 01, 2020 10:07 pm

I could never see AA dehubbing PHX. It's a great hub for them, and has been a proven money maker for AA, and HP.
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MrPeanut
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Re: AA's PHX Hub

Sat May 02, 2020 1:14 am

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

You are misguided, this is from Vasu today: "But for right now as we look at our schedule, clearly we have our biggest connecting complexes that are out there, primarily so that we can serve the vast majority of communities under the CARES Act with a minimum of resource expenditure, so that’s all you kind of see in our existing schedule today. Everything beyond it remains to be seen yet"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434157 ... art=single

First, Phoenix is retaining more service than LAX because of the CARES act, AA's LAX hub has no unique markets, and therefore service does not need to be retained there to comply with the act. Secondly, LAX is not a large domestic connecting complex, DCA & LGA are similarly not large domestic connecting complexes and both were cut to the same level (if not worse) for May.

Nearly every hub will be smaller coming out of this, but that doesn't mean any hub will be closed, especially if traffic rebounds over the next few years.


Exactly, you just said it. LAX is not a domestic connecting complex. Which means it’s only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway. Unfortunately for AA, their TPAC flying was unprofitable, international traffic is dead in the near future, and airlines have said that business travel (and their high revenues) will never return to the same levels they were historically. Therefore, LAX’s purpose in the future changes greatly from its purpose in the past. Half of their TPAC flying was to China. That’s not coming back and those were the worst performers. You don’t need a TPAC gateway to support a route to Tokyo and one to Sydney.

As for your unique market comment, PHX only has 3 unique markets. All of which could have easily been covered at either LAX, DFW, or added on as a tag. So if LAX was that critical they would have easily been able to accommodate it.


So many false statements, where to begin.....

1. "It's only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway," that is not true, LAX also holds some of AA's highest revenue generating routes including JFK-LAX, you can't tap into those markets without a hub in LAX. In addition, LAX is also an enormous market for AA's partners. Having no real hub in either LAX + NYC would handicap AA long after this pandemic issue passes. Not every hub needs to be a pure play connecting complex, and to cut everything because some flights are unprofitable would be a mistake

2. To be clear, international flying being dead right now, does not mean it will be dead in 1-3 years. Cutting int'l routes for the next year or so obviously makes sense, but cutting everything beyond that is potentially reckless.

3. US airlines are not saying business travel will never return to previous levels, I'd like to see which airlines are saying that. Read the reports from the Global Business Travel Association, they survey their corporate partners regularly, and almost none of the member companies are expecting to not return to close normal by the end of 2021. The most pessimist I have seen is Gary Kelly, who talked about a five year recovery for WN's business travel back to 2019 levels, but that is significantly different from never returning to 2019 levels ever again.
https://www.gbta.org/blog/the-first-sig ... bta-study/

4. Let's say AA does cut HKG, PVG, and PEK, there is still LAX-Hawaii which they serve at almost 15 flights a day, plus LAX-GRU/EZE/MEX/AKL/LHR + BZE/SJD/PVR/MZT/YVR, in addition to over a dozen of partner flights. If those China routes are gone International from LAX will still be important to AA, especially since they have a JV with JAL and QF, and they share the PnL with both airlines on routes to LAX.

5. As I have just mentioned LAX is not build as a domestic connecting complex, keeping flights from smaller markets to LAX right now makes no sense as there will be few places to connect to since LAX doesn't have banks in the traditional sense. The logic of LAX not being important, because they are cutting it heavily in May, falls apart in the fact that they have also slashed DCA & LGA.


Let me say this another way for you....LAX is an extremely expensive place to operate. Rents and labor are much higher at LAX and average airfares low. Losing money at a hub is fine when the rest of the network can absorb the loss. It cannot do that in this environment.

LAX’s only purpose as a hub was as a TPAC gateway and unfortunately that is where the bulk of their problems were at LAX. Those routes will not return as AA digs itself out of this mess which essentially means its original purpose as a hub no longer exists.

Most of those non-TPAC international destinations are irrelevant to this convo because they can all be served via other AA gateways and don’t require backtracking.

It is also important to keep in mind that while you like to point to Vasu’s comment from the earnings call as proof that LAX remains as a hub, you seemed to conveniently leave off the comment he made when asked to further clarify. Vasu responded by saying that DFW and CLT remain as connecting complexes, but “further plans will be decided in a clean sheet exercise that is starting now”.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 157
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Re: AA's PHX Hub

Sat May 02, 2020 1:26 am

MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

You are misguided, this is from Vasu today: "But for right now as we look at our schedule, clearly we have our biggest connecting complexes that are out there, primarily so that we can serve the vast majority of communities under the CARES Act with a minimum of resource expenditure, so that’s all you kind of see in our existing schedule today. Everything beyond it remains to be seen yet"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/434157 ... art=single

First, Phoenix is retaining more service than LAX because of the CARES act, AA's LAX hub has no unique markets, and therefore service does not need to be retained there to comply with the act. Secondly, LAX is not a large domestic connecting complex, DCA & LGA are similarly not large domestic connecting complexes and both were cut to the same level (if not worse) for May.

Nearly every hub will be smaller coming out of this, but that doesn't mean any hub will be closed, especially if traffic rebounds over the next few years.


Exactly, you just said it. LAX is not a domestic connecting complex. Which means it’s only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway. Unfortunately for AA, their TPAC flying was unprofitable, international traffic is dead in the near future, and airlines have said that business travel (and their high revenues) will never return to the same levels they were historically. Therefore, LAX’s purpose in the future changes greatly from its purpose in the past. Half of their TPAC flying was to China. That’s not coming back and those were the worst performers. You don’t need a TPAC gateway to support a route to Tokyo and one to Sydney.

As for your unique market comment, PHX only has 3 unique markets. All of which could have easily been covered at either LAX, DFW, or added on as a tag. So if LAX was that critical they would have easily been able to accommodate it.


AA has a substantial O&D operation at LAX. It’s also operating more flights from LAX than PHX on any given Tuesday or Saturday. Stop reading into things. LAX isn’t going anywhere and as the market recovers and traffic spreads thin, no doubt PHX will potentially shrink short term to assist LAX, which is far more important to AA’s network.


Yes they do have a substantial O&D operation but that does not require a hub and that is where the differentiator comes into play.

Keep in mind you were saying very similar comments about AA keeping JFK over PHL for the exact same reasons that you are now saying LAX remains. Unfortunately, especially in this environment, it’s not about being top dog at the big markets when your bleeding money in those big markets. AA can and will support O&D demands but just like at JFK, but they were never able to make LAX work from a hub perspective just like at LAX.

I’m not clear why people on here seem to believe having the biggest market share in the biggest markets is more important than making a profit. It’s not. Look at Southwest. Pre-covid they carried more domestic passengers than any other carrier and had better margins than AA without being #1, #2 or #3 in market share in LAX or NYC. And today they don’t find themselves struggling to remain solvent like they are at AA.
 
alasizon
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Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sat May 02, 2020 2:27 am

All of you are comparing two different types of hub operations. One is high-cost, high-reward O&D focused while one is low-cost, mass connection focused.

Both hubs exist for their specific strengths. LAX cannot (and no attempt would be made) to absorb the connection flows that PHX runs, simply not enough gates nor airfield capacity to absorb the bank structure. PHX cannot produce the strong INTL O&D and business contracts that LAX does and its not like there is suddenly a whole dedicated INTL terminal at PHX to take all those 777s and 787s.

Sure, LAX has some connections and PHX has some INTL travel but they very much work in a duopoly. Personally, I'm not sure that LAX is as successful as it is without PHX absorbing the low and middle yield domestic connecting volume. Likewise, PHX wouldn't be as successful if there wasn't the capacity in LAX filling those premium seats (by nature of those pax would spill over to a connecting route instead and if via PHX that would eat up seats that helps support the regional flights in PHX).
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
usflyer msp
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Re: AA's PHX Hub

Sat May 02, 2020 2:34 am

MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

Exactly, you just said it. LAX is not a domestic connecting complex. Which means it’s only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway. Unfortunately for AA, their TPAC flying was unprofitable, international traffic is dead in the near future, and airlines have said that business travel (and their high revenues) will never return to the same levels they were historically. Therefore, LAX’s purpose in the future changes greatly from its purpose in the past. Half of their TPAC flying was to China. That’s not coming back and those were the worst performers. You don’t need a TPAC gateway to support a route to Tokyo and one to Sydney.

As for your unique market comment, PHX only has 3 unique markets. All of which could have easily been covered at either LAX, DFW, or added on as a tag. So if LAX was that critical they would have easily been able to accommodate it.


So many false statements, where to begin.....

1. "It's only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway," that is not true, LAX also holds some of AA's highest revenue generating routes including JFK-LAX, you can't tap into those markets without a hub in LAX. In addition, LAX is also an enormous market for AA's partners. Having no real hub in either LAX + NYC would handicap AA long after this pandemic issue passes. Not every hub needs to be a pure play connecting complex, and to cut everything because some flights are unprofitable would be a mistake

2. To be clear, international flying being dead right now, does not mean it will be dead in 1-3 years. Cutting int'l routes for the next year or so obviously makes sense, but cutting everything beyond that is potentially reckless.

3. US airlines are not saying business travel will never return to previous levels, I'd like to see which airlines are saying that. Read the reports from the Global Business Travel Association, they survey their corporate partners regularly, and almost none of the member companies are expecting to not return to close normal by the end of 2021. The most pessimist I have seen is Gary Kelly, who talked about a five year recovery for WN's business travel back to 2019 levels, but that is significantly different from never returning to 2019 levels ever again.
https://www.gbta.org/blog/the-first-sig ... bta-study/

4. Let's say AA does cut HKG, PVG, and PEK, there is still LAX-Hawaii which they serve at almost 15 flights a day, plus LAX-GRU/EZE/MEX/AKL/LHR + BZE/SJD/PVR/MZT/YVR, in addition to over a dozen of partner flights. If those China routes are gone International from LAX will still be important to AA, especially since they have a JV with JAL and QF, and they share the PnL with both airlines on routes to LAX.

5. As I have just mentioned LAX is not build as a domestic connecting complex, keeping flights from smaller markets to LAX right now makes no sense as there will be few places to connect to since LAX doesn't have banks in the traditional sense. The logic of LAX not being important, because they are cutting it heavily in May, falls apart in the fact that they have also slashed DCA & LGA.


Let me say this another way for you....LAX is an extremely expensive place to operate. Rents and labor are much higher at LAX and average airfares low. Losing money at a hub is fine when the rest of the network can absorb the loss. It cannot do that in this environment.

LAX’s only purpose as a hub was as a TPAC gateway and unfortunately that is where the bulk of their problems were at LAX. Those routes will not return as AA digs itself out of this mess which essentially means its original purpose as a hub no longer exists.

Most of those non-TPAC international destinations are irrelevant to this convo because they can all be served via other AA gateways and don’t require backtracking.

It is also important to keep in mind that while you like to point to Vasu’s comment from the earnings call as proof that LAX remains as a hub, you seemed to conveniently leave off the comment he made when asked to further clarify. Vasu responded by saying that DFW and CLT remain as connecting complexes, but “further plans will be decided in a clean sheet exercise that is starting now”.


I don't think you have a clear definition of what a hub is. Just because AA does not connect alot of domestic pax at LAX does not mean it is not a hub. UA doesn't do alot of domestic connecting pax in EWR or SFO not does DL in BOS or SEA - does that mean they are not hubs? They are largely O&D hubs.

Yes, LAX is expensive but it is also significantly higher revenue than PHX. Despite what you say, the average fares at LAX are not low - the average domestic fare is above the national average and well above PHX and significantly more than the difference between the LAX and PHX cost-per-enplanement.

2019 National Domestic Avg: $356.51
2019 LAX Domestic Avg: $372.10
2019 PHX Domestic Avg: $346.10

PHX cost per enplanement - $6.26
LAX cost per enplanement - $16.75

AA's LAX operation should actually perform better without the China flights as they were the main drag on the hub's profitability. Domestically, AA's LAX operation made money.
 
onwFan
Posts: 436
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2016 4:02 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub

Sat May 02, 2020 3:03 am

MrPeanut wrote:

Keep in mind you were saying very similar comments about AA keeping JFK over PHL for the exact same reasons that you are now saying LAX remains. Unfortunately, especially in this environment, it’s not about being top dog at the big markets when your bleeding money in those big markets. AA can and will support O&D demands but just like at JFK, but they were never able to make LAX work from a hub perspective just like at LAX.

I don't see how JFK/PHL and LAX/PHX is even close to a fair comparison. PHL was already a major (and much biggger) transatlantic hub for AA/US, had the strategic geographic location; and the O/D demand from the North-East to support such an operation. In addition, PHL offered AA the possibility of offering domestic connections to transatlantic flights which JFK couldn't. They already served many of the shorter domestic NY routes from LGA, leaving the need for JFK only for longer O/D domestic and international routes. None of these are applicable to PHX.
 
User avatar
Midwestindy
Posts: 5267
Joined: Sun Mar 12, 2017 3:56 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub

Sat May 02, 2020 4:17 pm

MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

Exactly, you just said it. LAX is not a domestic connecting complex. Which means it’s only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway. Unfortunately for AA, their TPAC flying was unprofitable, international traffic is dead in the near future, and airlines have said that business travel (and their high revenues) will never return to the same levels they were historically. Therefore, LAX’s purpose in the future changes greatly from its purpose in the past. Half of their TPAC flying was to China. That’s not coming back and those were the worst performers. You don’t need a TPAC gateway to support a route to Tokyo and one to Sydney.

As for your unique market comment, PHX only has 3 unique markets. All of which could have easily been covered at either LAX, DFW, or added on as a tag. So if LAX was that critical they would have easily been able to accommodate it.


So many false statements, where to begin.....

1. "It's only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway," that is not true, LAX also holds some of AA's highest revenue generating routes including JFK-LAX, you can't tap into those markets without a hub in LAX. In addition, LAX is also an enormous market for AA's partners. Having no real hub in either LAX + NYC would handicap AA long after this pandemic issue passes. Not every hub needs to be a pure play connecting complex, and to cut everything because some flights are unprofitable would be a mistake

2. To be clear, international flying being dead right now, does not mean it will be dead in 1-3 years. Cutting int'l routes for the next year or so obviously makes sense, but cutting everything beyond that is potentially reckless.

3. US airlines are not saying business travel will never return to previous levels, I'd like to see which airlines are saying that. Read the reports from the Global Business Travel Association, they survey their corporate partners regularly, and almost none of the member companies are expecting to not return to close normal by the end of 2021. The most pessimist I have seen is Gary Kelly, who talked about a five year recovery for WN's business travel back to 2019 levels, but that is significantly different from never returning to 2019 levels ever again.
https://www.gbta.org/blog/the-first-sig ... bta-study/

4. Let's say AA does cut HKG, PVG, and PEK, there is still LAX-Hawaii which they serve at almost 15 flights a day, plus LAX-GRU/EZE/MEX/AKL/LHR + BZE/SJD/PVR/MZT/YVR, in addition to over a dozen of partner flights. If those China routes are gone International from LAX will still be important to AA, especially since they have a JV with JAL and QF, and they share the PnL with both airlines on routes to LAX.

5. As I have just mentioned LAX is not build as a domestic connecting complex, keeping flights from smaller markets to LAX right now makes no sense as there will be few places to connect to since LAX doesn't have banks in the traditional sense. The logic of LAX not being important, because they are cutting it heavily in May, falls apart in the fact that they have also slashed DCA & LGA.


Let me say this another way for you....LAX is an extremely expensive place to operate. Rents and labor are much higher at LAX and average airfares low. Losing money at a hub is fine when the rest of the network can absorb the loss. It cannot do that in this environment.

LAX’s only purpose as a hub was as a TPAC gateway and unfortunately that is where the bulk of their problems were at LAX. Those routes will not return as AA digs itself out of this mess which essentially means its original purpose as a hub no longer exists.

Most of those non-TPAC international destinations are irrelevant to this convo because they can all be served via other AA gateways and don’t require backtracking.

It is also important to keep in mind that while you like to point to Vasu’s comment from the earnings call as proof that LAX remains as a hub, you seemed to conveniently leave off the comment he made when asked to further clarify. Vasu responded by saying that DFW and CLT remain as connecting complexes, but “further plans will be decided in a clean sheet exercise that is starting now”.


And it won't lose money in this environment, because it will likely be temporarily shrunk until at least 2021.

I think it has been stated to you in almost a 1000 different ways, LAX's only purpose is not a TPAC gateway, It is a major O&D operation for AA similar to both LGA & DCA. Not every "hub" needs to connect a ton of passengers. Additionally with the new AS partnership, LAX likely means more to AA now, than it has in the past.

Their large position in LAX has ripple effects across their network, as it allows AA to compete for more corporate contracts in other markets that have a large amount of demand to LA (which is just about every major market).

This is the second time on this thread you have used quotation marks for something that wasn't said....

This is what he actually said (responding to "Should we expect some hubs to come back faster or more robustly than others?"): "As Derek mentioned, we are just now starting kind of a clean sheet exercise for what 2021 might look like, and so I couldn’t tell you with a lot of clarity. But for right now as we look at our schedule, clearly we have our biggest connecting complexes that are out there, primarily so that we can serve the vast majority of communities under the CARES Act with a minimum of resource expenditure, so that’s all you kind of see in our existing schedule today."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/434157 ... art=single

Here is the other part of what he said:

"Does this mean that we shrink hubs or eliminate ones, so let me be very direct about this. We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it. As we see this--look, the core of our customer proposition is providing connectivity"

"As dark and daunting as this crisis is, this is the moment for real clarity, and so this is not about dismantling our customer proposition but sharpening it and refocusing it. With that in mind, the way we are thinking about trying to get a lot of the same value that historically people tried to rein through hub closure"

"Then the third thing, which is really different from past crises for us, is really the power of our partnerships here, because now we have things such as our growing partnership with Alaska on the west coast, that in a lot of markets that are challenged, that growth is inhibited because of constraints on slots or dates or routes. What we’re now able to do is offer the customer a much larger network that can compete with bigger rivals in oftentimes unwinnable markets, so that means that we should be able to see that in higher quality revenues for American Airlines at a lower amount of investment."

Please do not use quotation marks unless it is a direct quote, and you cite your source.

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:

Exactly, you just said it. LAX is not a domestic connecting complex. Which means it’s only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway. Unfortunately for AA, their TPAC flying was unprofitable, international traffic is dead in the near future, and airlines have said that business travel (and their high revenues) will never return to the same levels they were historically. Therefore, LAX’s purpose in the future changes greatly from its purpose in the past. Half of their TPAC flying was to China. That’s not coming back and those were the worst performers. You don’t need a TPAC gateway to support a route to Tokyo and one to Sydney.

As for your unique market comment, PHX only has 3 unique markets. All of which could have easily been covered at either LAX, DFW, or added on as a tag. So if LAX was that critical they would have easily been able to accommodate it.


AA has a substantial O&D operation at LAX. It’s also operating more flights from LAX than PHX on any given Tuesday or Saturday. Stop reading into things. LAX isn’t going anywhere and as the market recovers and traffic spreads thin, no doubt PHX will potentially shrink short term to assist LAX, which is far more important to AA’s network.


Yes they do have a substantial O&D operation but that does not require a hub and that is where the differentiator comes into play.

Keep in mind you were saying very similar comments about AA keeping JFK over PHL for the exact same reasons that you are now saying LAX remains. Unfortunately, especially in this environment, it’s not about being top dog at the big markets when your bleeding money in those big markets. AA can and will support O&D demands but just like at JFK, but they were never able to make LAX work from a hub perspective just like at LAX.

I’m not clear why people on here seem to believe having the biggest market share in the biggest markets is more important than making a profit. It’s not. Look at Southwest. Pre-covid they carried more domestic passengers than any other carrier and had better margins than AA without being #1, #2 or #3 in market share in LAX or NYC. And today they don’t find themselves struggling to remain solvent like they are at AA.


It does require a hub, that's why UA, WN, DL, and nearly all the rest of the major US airlines have a "hub" in LAX.

I don't recall making similar comments about keeping JFK over PHL, but even if I did that is a completely different set of circumstances:
1. AA is not the largest carrier in JFK, and has no possible path to becoming #1 in JFK. In LAX, AA is #1, and is/has invested billions of dollars into infrastructure there.
2. With PHL & JFK, PHL can replicate some of the JFK connecting TATL flows, and with LAX no west coast hub can replicate LAX's operation for AA.
3. PHL has sizable TATL demand on its own, LAX's closest hub (PHX) doesn't have anywhere near the TPAC O&D to be an effective TPAC hub.

AA's #1 LAX position is easily worth many hundreds of millions of dollars, airlines spend decades & pour millions of dollars into becoming #1 in a market like LA.

Again they will likely shrink LAX through 2021, but there is no reason to abandon the hub in favor of a small focus city.

WN has a different business model as you should know, they are a LCC, and a much smaller % of their revenue comes from business travel
Status for 2019/2020: AAdvantage Platinum, Delta Gold, Southwest A-List
 
austwin
Posts: 85
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:19 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sat May 02, 2020 4:59 pm

Just a gentle reminder that since the merger AA has referred and treated the PHX hub as their "Western Connecting Hub." It's never been promised or used as an international flight hub. THEREFORE, it isn't trying to be LAX, DFW, CLT...
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 157
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub

Sun May 03, 2020 12:53 am

Midwestindy wrote:
MrPeanut wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

So many false statements, where to begin.....

1. "It's only useful purpose is as a TPAC gateway," that is not true, LAX also holds some of AA's highest revenue generating routes including JFK-LAX, you can't tap into those markets without a hub in LAX. In addition, LAX is also an enormous market for AA's partners. Having no real hub in either LAX + NYC would handicap AA long after this pandemic issue passes. Not every hub needs to be a pure play connecting complex, and to cut everything because some flights are unprofitable would be a mistake

2. To be clear, international flying being dead right now, does not mean it will be dead in 1-3 years. Cutting int'l routes for the next year or so obviously makes sense, but cutting everything beyond that is potentially reckless.

3. US airlines are not saying business travel will never return to previous levels, I'd like to see which airlines are saying that. Read the reports from the Global Business Travel Association, they survey their corporate partners regularly, and almost none of the member companies are expecting to not return to close normal by the end of 2021. The most pessimist I have seen is Gary Kelly, who talked about a five year recovery for WN's business travel back to 2019 levels, but that is significantly different from never returning to 2019 levels ever again.
https://www.gbta.org/blog/the-first-sig ... bta-study/

4. Let's say AA does cut HKG, PVG, and PEK, there is still LAX-Hawaii which they serve at almost 15 flights a day, plus LAX-GRU/EZE/MEX/AKL/LHR + BZE/SJD/PVR/MZT/YVR, in addition to over a dozen of partner flights. If those China routes are gone International from LAX will still be important to AA, especially since they have a JV with JAL and QF, and they share the PnL with both airlines on routes to LAX.

5. As I have just mentioned LAX is not build as a domestic connecting complex, keeping flights from smaller markets to LAX right now makes no sense as there will be few places to connect to since LAX doesn't have banks in the traditional sense. The logic of LAX not being important, because they are cutting it heavily in May, falls apart in the fact that they have also slashed DCA & LGA.


Let me say this another way for you....LAX is an extremely expensive place to operate. Rents and labor are much higher at LAX and average airfares low. Losing money at a hub is fine when the rest of the network can absorb the loss. It cannot do that in this environment.

LAX’s only purpose as a hub was as a TPAC gateway and unfortunately that is where the bulk of their problems were at LAX. Those routes will not return as AA digs itself out of this mess which essentially means its original purpose as a hub no longer exists.

Most of those non-TPAC international destinations are irrelevant to this convo because they can all be served via other AA gateways and don’t require backtracking.

It is also important to keep in mind that while you like to point to Vasu’s comment from the earnings call as proof that LAX remains as a hub, you seemed to conveniently leave off the comment he made when asked to further clarify. Vasu responded by saying that DFW and CLT remain as connecting complexes, but “further plans will be decided in a clean sheet exercise that is starting now”.


And it won't lose money in this environment, because it will likely be temporarily shrunk until at least 2021.

I think it has been stated to you in almost a 1000 different ways, LAX's only purpose is not a TPAC gateway, It is a major O&D operation for AA similar to both LGA & DCA. Not every "hub" needs to connect a ton of passengers. Additionally with the new AS partnership, LAX likely means more to AA now, than it has in the past.

Their large position in LAX has ripple effects across their network, as it allows AA to compete for more corporate contracts in other markets that have a large amount of demand to LA (which is just about every major market).

This is the second time on this thread you have used quotation marks for something that wasn't said....

This is what he actually said (responding to "Should we expect some hubs to come back faster or more robustly than others?"): "As Derek mentioned, we are just now starting kind of a clean sheet exercise for what 2021 might look like, and so I couldn’t tell you with a lot of clarity. But for right now as we look at our schedule, clearly we have our biggest connecting complexes that are out there, primarily so that we can serve the vast majority of communities under the CARES Act with a minimum of resource expenditure, so that’s all you kind of see in our existing schedule today."
https://seekingalpha.com/article/434157 ... art=single

Here is the other part of what he said:

"Does this mean that we shrink hubs or eliminate ones, so let me be very direct about this. We have no plans to close any hubs, in fact far from it. As we see this--look, the core of our customer proposition is providing connectivity"

"As dark and daunting as this crisis is, this is the moment for real clarity, and so this is not about dismantling our customer proposition but sharpening it and refocusing it. With that in mind, the way we are thinking about trying to get a lot of the same value that historically people tried to rein through hub closure"

"Then the third thing, which is really different from past crises for us, is really the power of our partnerships here, because now we have things such as our growing partnership with Alaska on the west coast, that in a lot of markets that are challenged, that growth is inhibited because of constraints on slots or dates or routes. What we’re now able to do is offer the customer a much larger network that can compete with bigger rivals in oftentimes unwinnable markets, so that means that we should be able to see that in higher quality revenues for American Airlines at a lower amount of investment."

Please do not use quotation marks unless it is a direct quote, and you cite your source.

MrPeanut wrote:
MAH4546 wrote:

AA has a substantial O&D operation at LAX. It’s also operating more flights from LAX than PHX on any given Tuesday or Saturday. Stop reading into things. LAX isn’t going anywhere and as the market recovers and traffic spreads thin, no doubt PHX will potentially shrink short term to assist LAX, which is far more important to AA’s network.


Yes they do have a substantial O&D operation but that does not require a hub and that is where the differentiator comes into play.

Keep in mind you were saying very similar comments about AA keeping JFK over PHL for the exact same reasons that you are now saying LAX remains. Unfortunately, especially in this environment, it’s not about being top dog at the big markets when your bleeding money in those big markets. AA can and will support O&D demands but just like at JFK, but they were never able to make LAX work from a hub perspective just like at LAX.

I’m not clear why people on here seem to believe having the biggest market share in the biggest markets is more important than making a profit. It’s not. Look at Southwest. Pre-covid they carried more domestic passengers than any other carrier and had better margins than AA without being #1, #2 or #3 in market share in LAX or NYC. And today they don’t find themselves struggling to remain solvent like they are at AA.


It does require a hub, that's why UA, WN, DL, and nearly all the rest of the major US airlines have a "hub" in LAX.

I don't recall making similar comments about keeping JFK over PHL, but even if I did that is a completely different set of circumstances:
1. AA is not the largest carrier in JFK, and has no possible path to becoming #1 in JFK. In LAX, AA is #1, and is/has invested billions of dollars into infrastructure there.
2. With PHL & JFK, PHL can replicate some of the JFK connecting TATL flows, and with LAX no west coast hub can replicate LAX's operation for AA.
3. PHL has sizable TATL demand on its own, LAX's closest hub (PHX) doesn't have anywhere near the TPAC O&D to be an effective TPAC hub.

AA's #1 LAX position is easily worth many hundreds of millions of dollars, airlines spend decades & pour millions of dollars into becoming #1 in a market like LA.

Again they will likely shrink LAX through 2021, but there is no reason to abandon the hub in favor of a small focus city.

WN has a different business model as you should know, they are a LCC, and a much smaller % of their revenue comes from business travel


You do not understand the format and structure of earnings calls. Like I said before, airline execs do not announce hub closures during earnings calls for a lot of reasons.

And I suggest you read again what was said. “We are not Going to close any hubs, far from it” in one paragraph and then in another paragraph he states that they are looking at 2021 with a clean sheet of paper. Not only is that double speak, but how ridiculous of a comment it is to say “we are not going to close any hubs by far from it” in this type of economic environment. At least United was more transparent in the way they addressed a similar question.

With American expected to burn $50M a day by summer that equates to $1.5 billion a month. They won’t keep money losing hubs around burning that amount of cash.

As for the PHL vs. JFK comment I made, you need to go back and see who I directed that comment to.
 
MrPeanut
Posts: 157
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:36 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun May 03, 2020 1:02 am

alasizon wrote:
All of you are comparing two different types of hub operations. One is high-cost, high-reward O&D focused while one is low-cost, mass connection focused.

Both hubs exist for their specific strengths. LAX cannot (and no attempt would be made) to absorb the connection flows that PHX runs, simply not enough gates nor airfield capacity to absorb the bank structure. PHX cannot produce the strong INTL O&D and business contracts that LAX does and its not like there is suddenly a whole dedicated INTL terminal at PHX to take all those 777s and 787s.

Sure, LAX has some connections and PHX has some INTL travel but they very much work in a duopoly. Personally, I'm not sure that LAX is as successful as it is without PHX absorbing the low and middle yield domestic connecting volume. Likewise, PHX wouldn't be as successful if there wasn't the capacity in LAX filling those premium seats (by nature of those pax would spill over to a connecting route instead and if via PHX that would eat up seats that helps support the regional flights in PHX).


Correct but when LAX’s TPAC operations bled money during a good economy, do you really think those stay during a poor economy?? You work in the industry. You know how it worlds. During a bad economy those flights are the first to go. And if a good chunk of those TPAC routes go, then the main value proposition of LAX goes with it.
 
alasizon
Posts: 2598
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun May 03, 2020 1:15 am

MrPeanut wrote:
alasizon wrote:
All of you are comparing two different types of hub operations. One is high-cost, high-reward O&D focused while one is low-cost, mass connection focused.

Both hubs exist for their specific strengths. LAX cannot (and no attempt would be made) to absorb the connection flows that PHX runs, simply not enough gates nor airfield capacity to absorb the bank structure. PHX cannot produce the strong INTL O&D and business contracts that LAX does and its not like there is suddenly a whole dedicated INTL terminal at PHX to take all those 777s and 787s.

Sure, LAX has some connections and PHX has some INTL travel but they very much work in a duopoly. Personally, I'm not sure that LAX is as successful as it is without PHX absorbing the low and middle yield domestic connecting volume. Likewise, PHX wouldn't be as successful if there wasn't the capacity in LAX filling those premium seats (by nature of those pax would spill over to a connecting route instead and if via PHX that would eat up seats that helps support the regional flights in PHX).


Correct but when LAX’s TPAC operations bled money during a good economy, do you really think those stay during a poor economy?? You work in the industry. You know how it worlds. During a bad economy those flights are the first to go. And if a good chunk of those TPAC routes go, then the main value proposition of LAX goes with it.


TPAC was LAX's drag but it also isn't the only purpose of the hub. The domestic service and Oceania service does make a nice profit (which should tell you just how much the Asian TPAC services drags on the hub). LAX isn't going anywhere as a hub for AA without a massive collapse in the LA market which I don't see happening.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
Pi7472000
Posts: 199
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:26 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun May 03, 2020 1:27 am

I do not see AA deuhbbing PHX as well. I think it is naive to say they will not dehub anything though. Didn’t AA just say they would never lose money again? I would not want to work for Parker. He does not seem like he knows what he is doing. UA and Delta seem much better managed and have no problem saying hubs may have to go and they will shrink. I could see AA leaving ORD. They have always been second tier at ORD and they do not need ORD. I would advocate for new leadership for AA that is honest and at least trying to make it. Airlines do not need to be large in every part of country. Maybe they will become more regional as they were in the 1980s.
 
acavpics
Posts: 384
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:54 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun May 03, 2020 1:45 am

Miamiairport wrote:
After 9/11 quite a number of people refused to fly even though the government said it was safe and by all means the stats proved it. But overcoming irrational fear isn't easy. Even more so near 20 years later when media loves to pump up the "fear factor" for ratings.


9/11 was different in that the incident directly involved airplanes, which were hijacked from within. That is obviously not the case with a virus. Once people are comfortable enough to get into a somewhat crowded supermarket, they will be comfortable enough to fly.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 3794
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun May 03, 2020 2:00 am

MrPeanut wrote:

Correct but when LAX’s TPAC operations bled money during a good economy, do you really think those stay during a poor economy?? You work in the industry. You know how it worlds. During a bad economy those flights are the first to go. And if a good chunk of those TPAC routes go, then the main value proposition of LAX goes with it.


THE VALUE PROPOSITION OF LAX IS THE LA BASIN'S COPIOUS AMOUNT OF HIGH YIELD O&D BUSINESS TRAFFIC AND THE ASSOCIATED CORPORATE CONTRACTS. TPAC DOES NOT MAKE OR BREAK THE HUB. HELL, AA RAN THE HUB FOR DECADES WITH NO TRANSPACIFIC ROUTES! Just because you keep repeating that [email protected] exists for TPAC does not make it true. :banghead:
 
Miamiairport
Posts: 665
Joined: Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun May 03, 2020 4:27 am

acavpics wrote:
Miamiairport wrote:
After 9/11 quite a number of people refused to fly even though the government said it was safe and by all means the stats proved it. But overcoming irrational fear isn't easy. Even more so near 20 years later when media loves to pump up the "fear factor" for ratings.


9/11 was different in that the incident directly involved airplanes, which were hijacked from within. That is obviously not the case with a virus. Once people are comfortable enough to get into a somewhat crowded supermarket, they will be comfortable enough to fly.


The MSM will continue to push the fear factor. There's no let up on it. I can't stand listening to CNN at the airports (since the AA AC is closed I'm forced to sit at the gate). You would think millions were dying. No shortage of people that will continue to live in fear.
 
Mboyle1988
Posts: 80
Joined: Sun Feb 25, 2018 4:38 am

Re: AA's PHX Hub in Jeopardy?

Sun May 03, 2020 5:03 am

Pi7472000 wrote:
I do not see AA deuhbbing PHX as well. I think it is naive to say they will not dehub anything though. Didn’t AA just say they would never lose money again? I would not want to work for Parker. He does not seem like he knows what he is doing. UA and Delta seem much better managed and have no problem saying hubs may have to go and they will shrink. I could see AA leaving ORD. They have always been second tier at ORD and they do not need ORD. I would advocate for new leadership for AA that is honest and at least trying to make it. Airlines do not need to be large in every part of country. Maybe they will become more regional as they were in the 1980s.


Honestly I don’t see any airlines abandoning any hubs. All the majors at this point have hubs that are either highly profitable or in strategically important markets. AA loses money in NYC, LAX, and MIA. Maybe they could eliminate MIA but then suddenly they go from first to worst in Latin America. They aren’t going to abandon LAX or NYC but maybe shrink to essential services?

PHX, PHL, and ORD are all middle of pack hubs which will likely shrink for next year or two. But I would be surprised if any of them went away completely.

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