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VirginFlyer
Posts: 5571
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:21 pm

Whoopeecock wrote:
Let’s bring it back to aviation, albeit not good news.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121193 ... evastating

A harbinger of the end for the Q300 fleet, I wonder?

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:15 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
Whoopeecock wrote:
Let’s bring it back to aviation, albeit not good news.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121193 ... evastating

A harbinger of the end for the Q300 fleet, I wonder?

V/F


Would make some sense the Q300's are sitting around 10-15 years old, we're as the ATR's are brand new hence they need to still cover the asset costs of the ATR 72-600 fleet. The Q300's values will be already written down, so the loss would be minimal to dispose that fleet.

The ATR 72-600s would probably et there work done in done in AKL/CHC as required. Didn't NZ just start building an new hangar in AKL pre-covid.
 
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SelandiaBaru
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:40 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
Whoopeecock wrote:
Let’s bring it back to aviation, albeit not good news.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121193 ... evastating

A harbinger of the end for the Q300 fleet, I wonder?

V/F


Could be, but Q300 maintenance can be done in AKL or CHC if ANZRML was to to shutter in NSN. Could argue that in a downsized regional operation it may easier to offload ATR aircraft rather than Q300s. But I don't see any major fleet changes at the bottom end until they have a handle on things.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:07 pm

SelandiaBaru wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
Whoopeecock wrote:
Let’s bring it back to aviation, albeit not good news.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121193 ... evastating

A harbinger of the end for the Q300 fleet, I wonder?

V/F


Could be, but Q300 maintenance can be done in AKL or CHC if ANZRML was to to shutter in NSN. Could argue that in a downsized regional operation it may easier to offload ATR aircraft rather than Q300s. But I don't see any major fleet changes at the bottom end until they have a handle on things.


Are many of the Q300 part's common with he Q400s? could be some demand for second hand parts for Q400s going forward, not many airlines will be wanting for fork out cash on new parts if they can in the next year or so.
 
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SelandiaBaru
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:27 pm

zkncj wrote:
SelandiaBaru wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
A harbinger of the end for the Q300 fleet, I wonder?

V/F


Could be, but Q300 maintenance can be done in AKL or CHC if ANZRML was to to shutter in NSN. Could argue that in a downsized regional operation it may easier to offload ATR aircraft rather than Q300s. But I don't see any major fleet changes at the bottom end until they have a handle on things.


Are many of the Q300 part's common with he Q400s? could be some demand for second hand parts for Q400s going forward, not many airlines will be wanting for fork out cash on new parts if they can in the next year or so.


Yeah a significant amount. Although there may be a bit of a glut on the market with the likes of Luxair fleet retirement and the collapse of Flybe.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:27 pm

Air New Zealand is permanently ending LAX-LHR (previously announced for October, and now confirmed to not be returning) and AKL-EZE (this is new), and as had been anticipated postponing AKL-EWR until at least late 2021.

Sad to see EZE ending - I had been under the impression this was doing well, and I had been hoping to go there in the future.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121 ... nal-routes

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:55 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
Air New Zealand is permanently ending LAX-LHR (previously announced for October, and now confirmed to not be returning) and AKL-EZE (this is new), and as had been anticipated postponing AKL-EWR until at least late 2021.

Sad to see EZE ending - I had been under the impression this was doing well, and I had been hoping to go there in the future.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121 ... nal-routes

V/F


Not to surprised about LAX-LHR not returning. I thought routes would go, didn’t expect EZE although there were issues before Covid 19, hopefully far out into the future they may reinstate it? Or maybe by then they will look at GRU? I’m talking several years.

EWR I expected something like an initial 12 month delay, we will see how that plays out.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:35 pm

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new ... d=12327253

Another article on it which stats they will return to South America, doesn’t say where or when.
 
NZ516
Posts: 460
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:08 am

I expect more will follow the Seoul Incheon service struggled before the outbreak and might not return.
Hopefully Vancouver returns and later with the US gateways next year sometime. But will take time before they return to daily. Even the Japan and Singapore routes should come back eventually.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:18 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327253

Another article on it which stats they will return to South America, doesn’t say where or when.

It’ll be a combination of things.
Mostly Covid19 and the fact that without a vaccine, travel to many places of the world will be off limits for at least a year (suspending for a year makes no sense. Better to cut and then restart again when ready).
The Argentina Peso has been performing really badly. Also with no rugby because of Covid19 that’s a large part of that market gone.
Finally, NZ doesn’t know what it’s fleet will be doing in the future at this stage. EZE does require EDTO limitations and having planes setup for that can be costly if not needed elsewhere (as we know with the 787 issues these planes had reduced EDTO/ETOPs as a result).
EZE will return*
Once Covid19 is over,
Once Argentina gets its economy growing again properly.
Once NZ has the planes and demand for the route.
As a guess I’d say 3 years.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
Kiwiandrew
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:19 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327253

Another article on it which stats they will return to South America, doesn’t say where or when.


I think you may have misinterpreted a badly written (it's the Herald so no surprises there) line :

but the airline will return to South America being what it referred to in 2014 as "the last major white spot" in its global network, when it first announced the service.

If I read the whole sentence, rather than the first few words, my interpretation is that South America will return to being a 'white spot' , i.e. unserved
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:11 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327253

Another article on it which stats they will return to South America, doesn’t say where or when.


I think you may have misinterpreted a badly written (it's the Herald so no surprises there) line :

but the airline will return to South America being what it referred to in 2014 as "the last major white spot" in its global network, when it first announced the service.

If I read the whole sentence, rather than the first few words, my interpretation is that South America will return to being a 'white spot' , i.e. unserved


Good to see you back Kiwiandrew. It is poorly written,
Not sure tbh, I take it as they will return to South America in the longer term but maybe not EZE.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:15 am

NZ516 wrote:
I expect more will follow the Seoul Incheon service struggled before the outbreak and might not return.
Hopefully Vancouver returns and later with the US gateways next year sometime. But will take time before they return to daily. Even the Japan and Singapore routes should come back eventually.


I personally would expect routes like RAR-LAX/SYD to get the chop, RAR-LAX more so. YVR/NRT/SIN will definitely come back at some stage, ICN I agree I’m not so sure, if is also a star hub with OZ, I think it depends what KE do, TPE is another? TPE/ICN can hub through SIN/HKG/NRT, though TPE was said said to be doing well.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:09 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Kiwiandrew wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327253

Another article on it which stats they will return to South America, doesn’t say where or when.


I think you may have misinterpreted a badly written (it's the Herald so no surprises there) line :

but the airline will return to South America being what it referred to in 2014 as "the last major white spot" in its global network, when it first announced the service.

If I read the whole sentence, rather than the first few words, my interpretation is that South America will return to being a 'white spot' , i.e. unserved


Good to see you back Kiwiandrew. It is poorly written,
Not sure tbh, I take it as they will return to South America in the longer term but maybe not EZE.

I also had to read it a few times to make sense of what it mean (poor wording is a personal bugbear of mine!) but I agree it is trying to say that South America is returning to being not served.

If they do return to South America in the future, I wonder if they would still go for EZE, or somewhere else like GRU, SCL, LIM, BOG, or GIG, all of which are larger airports with more connection potential (remembering Buenos Aires while being the second most populous metropolitan area in South America and the most visited city in South America, has its aviation market split between EZE and AEP). Onward codeshare could be through Star Alliance partner Avianca in LIM or BOG, or LATAM in GRU, SCL, or GIG. Given they had an onwards codeshare agreement with SkyTeam member Aerolineas Argentinas, it is not inconceivable they could also have one with LATAM, which is leaving OneWorld in a week and may eventually end up in SkyTeam, or remain outside an alliance.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AKL-SCL%2F ... =wls&DU=nm

In terms of great circle distance we would be looking at:
  • AKL-SCL 5,223 nm
  • AKL-EZE 5,580 nm
  • AKL-LIM 5,815 nm
  • AKL-GRU 6,504 nm
  • AKL-BOG 6,584 nm
  • AKL-GIG 6,631 nm

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
NZ516
Posts: 460
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:07 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
I expect more will follow the Seoul Incheon service struggled before the outbreak and might not return.
Hopefully Vancouver returns and later with the US gateways next year sometime. But will take time before they return to daily. Even the Japan and Singapore routes should come back eventually.


I personally would expect routes like RAR-LAX/SYD to get the chop, RAR-LAX more so. YVR/NRT/SIN will definitely come back at some stage, ICN I agree I’m not so sure, if is also a star hub with OZ, I think it depends what KE do, TPE is another? TPE/ICN can hub through SIN/HKG/NRT, though TPE was said said to be doing well.


Taipei will return it performed well with great loads was popular as it was the only non stop service between NZ and Taiwan. Not sure about RAR routes if they are covered by the Cook Islands Govt and brings in revenue Air NZ will be keen to take it up again.
 
ZK-NBT
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Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:06 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Kiwiandrew wrote:

I think you may have misinterpreted a badly written (it's the Herald so no surprises there) line :

but the airline will return to South America being what it referred to in 2014 as "the last major white spot" in its global network, when it first announced the service.

If I read the whole sentence, rather than the first few words, my interpretation is that South America will return to being a 'white spot' , i.e. unserved


Good to see you back Kiwiandrew. It is poorly written,
Not sure tbh, I take it as they will return to South America in the longer term but maybe not EZE.

I also had to read it a few times to make sense of what it mean (poor wording is a personal bugbear of mine!) but I agree it is trying to say that South America is returning to being not served.

If they do return to South America in the future, I wonder if they would still go for EZE, or somewhere else like GRU, SCL, LIM, BOG, or GIG, all of which are larger airports with more connection potential (remembering Buenos Aires while being the second most populous metropolitan area in South America and the most visited city in South America, has its aviation market split between EZE and AEP). Onward codeshare could be through Star Alliance partner Avianca in LIM or BOG, or LATAM in GRU, SCL, or GIG. Given they had an onwards codeshare agreement with SkyTeam member Aerolineas Argentinas, it is not inconceivable they could also have one with LATAM, which is leaving OneWorld in a week and may eventually end up in SkyTeam, or remain outside an alliance.

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AKL-SCL%2F ... =wls&DU=nm

In terms of great circle distance we would be looking at:
  • AKL-SCL 5,223 nm
  • AKL-EZE 5,580 nm
  • AKL-LIM 5,815 nm
  • AKL-GRU 6,504 nm
  • AKL-BOG 6,584 nm
  • AKL-GIG 6,631 nm

V/F


You are probably right, it would have been better to say nothing to save confusion.

In terms of other ports AV are in Star but it’s as far as Brazil, which I think Brazil is the biggest market if they can find a partner. They got a deal with AR through EZE but as you say It’s split with AEP. SCL seems unlikely given LA serve it from AKL and QF from SYD. LIM might be quite popular if they had a partner.

AR don’t have the aircraft, they are sending A332s EZE-AKL-PVG but empty I think, picking up medical equipment in PVG, an A339 maybe or an A359 would be needed for them I would think to look at AKL/SYD again.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 4:12 am

NZ516 wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
I expect more will follow the Seoul Incheon service struggled before the outbreak and might not return.
Hopefully Vancouver returns and later with the US gateways next year sometime. But will take time before they return to daily. Even the Japan and Singapore routes should come back eventually.


I personally would expect routes like RAR-LAX/SYD to get the chop, RAR-LAX more so. YVR/NRT/SIN will definitely come back at some stage, ICN I agree I’m not so sure, if is also a star hub with OZ, I think it depends what KE do, TPE is another? TPE/ICN can hub through SIN/HKG/NRT, though TPE was said said to be doing well.


Taipei will return it performed well with great loads was popular as it was the only non stop service between NZ and Taiwan. Not sure about RAR routes if they are covered by the Cook Islands Govt and brings in revenue Air NZ will be keen to take it up again.


I don’t think TPE was a huge market though? It is a market by market approach post Covid. The RAR routes are covered by the Cook Islands government, NZ may have better places to send potentially limited aircraft depending on what happens with the 777 fleet.

I would have thought HA who serve PPT/PPG 1-2 weekly could do a weekly A332 HNL-RAR with mainland connections or something. RAR-SYD could be timed to connect via AKL, though a non stop might bring more traffic, not sure I would see QF doing SYD-RAR.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 474
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2011 7:56 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 8:26 am

Zkpilot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327253

Another article on it which stats they will return to South America, doesn’t say where or when.

It’ll be a combination of things.
Mostly Covid19 and the fact that without a vaccine, travel to many places of the world will be off limits for at least a year (suspending for a year makes no sense. Better to cut and then restart again when ready).
The Argentina Peso has been performing really badly. Also with no rugby because of Covid19 that’s a large part of that market gone.
Finally, NZ doesn’t know what it’s fleet will be doing in the future at this stage. EZE does require EDTO limitations and having planes setup for that can be costly if not needed elsewhere (as we know with the 787 issues these planes had reduced EDTO/ETOPs as a result).
EZE will return*
Once Covid19 is over,
Once Argentina gets its economy growing again properly.
Once NZ has the planes and demand for the route.
As a guess I’d say 3 years.


Interested to know how Rugby is a large part of the market. There aren't that many games.
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:07 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
Given they had an onwards codeshare agreement with SkyTeam member Aerolineas Argentinas, it is not inconceivable they could also have one with LATAM, which is leaving OneWorld in a week and may eventually end up in SkyTeam, or remain outside an alliance.

It'll be very interesting to see if LA keeps AKL in the near-term. It had already gone less than daily pre-covid.

I totally agree that NZ and LA teaming up may be a possibility in the future, but maybe not in the near-term?

Cheers,

C.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:15 am

NTLDaz wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12327253

Another article on it which stats they will return to South America, doesn’t say where or when.

It’ll be a combination of things.
Mostly Covid19 and the fact that without a vaccine, travel to many places of the world will be off limits for at least a year (suspending for a year makes no sense. Better to cut and then restart again when ready).
The Argentina Peso has been performing really badly. Also with no rugby because of Covid19 that’s a large part of that market gone.
Finally, NZ doesn’t know what it’s fleet will be doing in the future at this stage. EZE does require EDTO limitations and having planes setup for that can be costly if not needed elsewhere (as we know with the 787 issues these planes had reduced EDTO/ETOPs as a result).
EZE will return*
Once Covid19 is over,
Once Argentina gets its economy growing again properly.
Once NZ has the planes and demand for the route.
As a guess I’d say 3 years.


Interested to know how Rugby is a large part of the market. There aren't that many games.

Well you’re looking at around the equivalent of 10x flights of full business and premium economy just with rugby players/entourage passengers plus fans let alone economy each year. Then you’ve got the people who get a taste from those trips and take their own holidays again.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:23 am

planemanofnz wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
Given they had an onwards codeshare agreement with SkyTeam member Aerolineas Argentinas, it is not inconceivable they could also have one with LATAM, which is leaving OneWorld in a week and may eventually end up in SkyTeam, or remain outside an alliance.

It'll be very interesting to see if LA keeps AKL in the near-term. It had already gone less than daily pre-covid.

I totally agree that NZ and LA teaming up may be a possibility in the future, but maybe not in the near-term?

Cheers,

C.


You would think they would? Given NZ not returning to EZE, LA at times have said they could serve BNE aswell, I don’t expect an AKL-BNE let alone SCL-BNE at this point however but maybe some of the existing SCL-SYD/MEL services via AKL? SYD still is 4x weekly via AKL. Depends on the market I wouldn’t be surprised if AKL returned to daily given NZ leaving EZE and a downturn in the Australian non stops possibly? All speculation of course.

LA I believe will continue to codeshare with QF, does LA include all the LAN affiliates? So NZ could codeshare with LP and operate to LIM? Long term of course, not anytime soon.
 
NTLDaz
Posts: 474
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:50 pm

Zkpilot wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
It’ll be a combination of things.
Mostly Covid19 and the fact that without a vaccine, travel to many places of the world will be off limits for at least a year (suspending for a year makes no sense. Better to cut and then restart again when ready).
The Argentina Peso has been performing really badly. Also with no rugby because of Covid19 that’s a large part of that market gone.
Finally, NZ doesn’t know what it’s fleet will be doing in the future at this stage. EZE does require EDTO limitations and having planes setup for that can be costly if not needed elsewhere (as we know with the 787 issues these planes had reduced EDTO/ETOPs as a result).
EZE will return*
Once Covid19 is over,
Once Argentina gets its economy growing again properly.
Once NZ has the planes and demand for the route.
As a guess I’d say 3 years.


Interested to know how Rugby is a large part of the market. There aren't that many games.

Well you’re looking at around the equivalent of 10x flights of full business and premium economy just with rugby players/entourage passengers plus fans let alone economy each year. Then you’ve got the people who get a taste from those trips and take their own holidays again.


Sorry but IMO if a flight has reliance on a few games of Rugby each year it's no wonder it would be headed for the chop.

I enjoy reading this thread but I'm sensing there is a high degree of optimism amongst some that things are going to return to normal sometime soon. I.just can't see it.There'll be flights ( and airlines ) that never come back.
 
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Zkpilot
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:01 am

NTLDaz wrote:
Zkpilot wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:

Interested to know how Rugby is a large part of the market. There aren't that many games.

Well you’re looking at around the equivalent of 10x flights of full business and premium economy just with rugby players/entourage passengers plus fans let alone economy each year. Then you’ve got the people who get a taste from those trips and take their own holidays again.


Sorry but IMO if a flight has reliance on a few games of Rugby each year it's no wonder it would be headed for the chop.

I enjoy reading this thread but I'm sensing there is a high degree of optimism amongst some that things are going to return to normal sometime soon. I.just can't see it.There'll be flights ( and airlines ) that never come back.

Well you have NZ, Australia and Argentina teams/fans using it. The flight wasn’t daily so you’re pretty much covering close to a months worth of flying just rugby related...not to be sniffed at. Then you have the Antarctic and South America cruises (many high end). Where the flight possibly didn’t achieve its goals was in linking to Asia. NZ had previously stated they were more than happy with the route performance but a combination of Argentina economy and Cov19 has clearly been too much to even think about it in the short term. I still think it’ll be back eventually.
64 types. 45 countries. 24 airlines.
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:46 am

NTLDaz wrote:
I enjoy reading this thread but I'm sensing there is a high degree of optimism amongst some that things are going to return to normal sometime soon. I.just can't see it.There'll be flights ( and airlines ) that never come back.

I agree. There’s a sense of unreality in what people are thinking and predicting. Here are my own more pessimistic predictions:

* NZ and Australia will later this year form a “travel bubble” (perhaps with some of the Pacific Islands), and for the future foreseeable these will be the ONLY “normal” international flying. Maybe Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea could also be part of this in the medium term, based on the possibility that they may be able to near-eliminate the virus there.

* Maybe in a year or 18 months some semblance of normality may return to other international markets, but this cannot happen until there is a vaccine AND a large portion of the potential market has actually been vaccinated.

* Even when “normality” resumes it will not be like before, but be a “new normal” which will be but a pale shadow of the old normal. Frequencies will be way down, and many routes will not resume for yesrs, if ever.

* Most of the new routes being postulated by posters are in fantasy territory. Routes which might get a look-in for QF might be to TPE and ICN - simply because they are in countries which may have a healthy population but nowhere for them to holiday except the South Pacific. If I was NZ, I'd be looking to see how SYD-RAR could be ramped up too, given there will be few destinations in Asia that will be possible or attractive (unless you want to have a 14-day extra "holiday" on your return).

Jus my thoughts!
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1087
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2006 7:58 pm

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 6:17 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
Given they had an onwards codeshare agreement with SkyTeam member Aerolineas Argentinas, it is not inconceivable they could also have one with LATAM, which is leaving OneWorld in a week and may eventually end up in SkyTeam, or remain outside an alliance.

It'll be very interesting to see if LA keeps AKL in the near-term. It had already gone less than daily pre-covid.

I totally agree that NZ and LA teaming up may be a possibility in the future, but maybe not in the near-term?

Cheers,

C.


You would think they would? Given NZ not returning to EZE, LA at times have said they could serve BNE aswell, I don’t expect an AKL-BNE let alone SCL-BNE at this point however but maybe some of the existing SCL-SYD/MEL services via AKL? SYD still is 4x weekly via AKL. Depends on the market I wouldn’t be surprised if AKL returned to daily given NZ leaving EZE and a downturn in the Australian non stops possibly? All speculation of course.

LA I believe will continue to codeshare with QF, does LA include all the LAN affiliates? So NZ could codeshare with LP and operate to LIM? Long term of course, not anytime soon.


EZE was Luxon's baby, I wouldn't be surprised if they gave up on South America altogether. This market needs years of development with an eye on the 2nd daily PVG service for Chinese connection. Now that we can't even fill a daily PVG service, this opportunity is all but gone.

Going back to South America now probably poses more risks than even re-opening SYD-LAX. Even if they did decide to go back in a few years, I have no doubt it would be GIG/GRU.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 7517
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:58 am

xiaotung wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
It'll be very interesting to see if LA keeps AKL in the near-term. It had already gone less than daily pre-covid.

I totally agree that NZ and LA teaming up may be a possibility in the future, but maybe not in the near-term?

Cheers,

C.


You would think they would? Given NZ not returning to EZE, LA at times have said they could serve BNE aswell, I don’t expect an AKL-BNE let alone SCL-BNE at this point however but maybe some of the existing SCL-SYD/MEL services via AKL? SYD still is 4x weekly via AKL. Depends on the market I wouldn’t be surprised if AKL returned to daily given NZ leaving EZE and a downturn in the Australian non stops possibly? All speculation of course.

LA I believe will continue to codeshare with QF, does LA include all the LAN affiliates? So NZ could codeshare with LP and operate to LIM? Long term of course, not anytime soon.


EZE was Luxon's baby, I wouldn't be surprised if they gave up on South America altogether. This market needs years of development with an eye on the 2nd daily PVG service for Chinese connection. Now that we can't even fill a daily PVG service, this opportunity is all but gone.

Going back to South America now probably poses more risks than even re-opening SYD-LAX. Even if they did decide to go back in a few years, I have no doubt it would be GIG/GRU.


I don’t think the overall plan is going to change much, I take it you were being hypothetical with SYD-LAX, 5 carriers pre Covid, NZ aren’t going to go and add several 5th freedom services, or any for that I wouldn’t think.

They can’t fill anything, not even a Q300 let alone a 787 to PVG and that’s the case for all airlines everywhere so not a great example.

Maybe there will be some slots come available in PVG?
 
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eta unknown
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:13 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
planemanofnz wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
Given they had an onwards codeshare agreement with SkyTeam member Aerolineas Argentinas, it is not inconceivable they could also have one with LATAM, which is leaving OneWorld in a week and may eventually end up in SkyTeam, or remain outside an alliance.

It'll be very interesting to see if LA keeps AKL in the near-term. It had already gone less than daily pre-covid.

I totally agree that NZ and LA teaming up may be a possibility in the future, but maybe not in the near-term?

Cheers,

C.


You would think they would? Given NZ not returning to EZE, LA at times have said they could serve BNE aswell, I don’t expect an AKL-BNE let alone SCL-BNE at this point however but maybe some of the existing SCL-SYD/MEL services via AKL? SYD still is 4x weekly via AKL. Depends on the market I wouldn’t be surprised if AKL returned to daily given NZ leaving EZE and a downturn in the Australian non stops possibly? All speculation of course.

LA I believe will continue to codeshare with QF, does LA include all the LAN affiliates? So NZ could codeshare with LP and operate to LIM? Long term of course, not anytime soon.

You can forget about anything BNE related with LA- they made their sole QLD representative redundant around November and that was in the good ol' days pre-COVID.
 
Gasman
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:39 pm

DavidByrne wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
I enjoy reading this thread but I'm sensing there is a high degree of optimism amongst some that things are going to return to normal sometime soon. I.just can't see it.There'll be flights ( and airlines ) that never come back.

I agree. There’s a sense of unreality in what people are thinking and predicting. Here are my own more pessimistic predictions:

* NZ and Australia will later this year form a “travel bubble” (perhaps with some of the Pacific Islands), and for the future foreseeable these will be the ONLY “normal” international flying. Maybe Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea could also be part of this in the medium term, based on the possibility that they may be able to near-eliminate the virus there.

* Maybe in a year or 18 months some semblance of normality may return to other international markets, but this cannot happen until there is a vaccine AND a large portion of the potential market has actually been vaccinated.

* Even when “normality” resumes it will not be like before, but be a “new normal” which will be but a pale shadow of the old normal. Frequencies will be way down, and many routes will not resume for yesrs, if ever.

* Most of the new routes being postulated by posters are in fantasy territory. Routes which might get a look-in for QF might be to TPE and ICN - simply because they are in countries which may have a healthy population but nowhere for them to holiday except the South Pacific. If I was NZ, I'd be looking to see how SYD-RAR could be ramped up too, given there will be few destinations in Asia that will be possible or attractive (unless you want to have a 14-day extra "holiday" on your return).

Jus my thoughts!


Agreed. There are two things that have to happen.

Firstly, travel has to be worth it from a risk:benefit point of view. And that means the virus has to be under some sort of control, borders have to be open and the quarantine requirements have to be not insurmountable. If there's one thing the lockdown has demonstrated, it's that there is actually very little travel that necessitates risking your life or the welfare of the community over.

Secondly, there has to be a market. And that depends not only on the balance of medical, geopolitical and economic factors; but also the prevailing mood of society (which is unlikely to be the same the world over). Anything from a "roaring 20's" scenario to one of catatonic depression is possible.

Balancing the above, my predictions are

- JQ will pull out of New Zealand
- NZ will recommence the main trunk fairly quickly. NZ traffic will equilibrate in the medium term at about 80% of pre-Covid levels, some of which will reflect the JQ customer base. Prices will rise.
- Regional services will be skeletal.
- I doubt there'll be much travel to Pacific destinations. They'll be cognisant of the fact a Covid outbreak could completely decimate the population. That said, the virus seems to be less of an issue in warmer climes. So maybe they'll hedge their bets.
- Trans Tasman travel will recommence, with a whimper rather than a shout, and not before September.
- They'll be no "new, exciting" routes for NZ for at least two years and that includes EWR. When long haul international travel recommences it'll ramp up slowly, and to legacy destinations. LAX, SIN. NRT and YVR perhaps. South America I don't expect to see again for another ten years.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:32 pm

NZ might not return to Bali for a while either with the Covid situation there:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/ ... 18547.html
 
DavidByrne
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:13 am

NZ516 wrote:
NZ might not return to Bali for a while either with the Covid situation there:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/ ... 18547.html

Hence my thoughts about the potential of NZ'S SYD-RAR route. In 2019, Australian arrivals were around 550 a week on average; around a quarter of the arrivals from NZ. With Bali and other Asian destinations likely to be off-limits for a while, Australians may increasingly look eastward for their holidays and NZ is well placed to make this market their own.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
planemanofnz
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:05 am

Gasman wrote:
When long haul international travel recommences it'll ramp up slowly, and to legacy destinations. LAX, SIN. NRT and YVR perhaps.

FYI, LAX is still running ... as is HKG.

I actually think TPE and ICN could come back online before many others. This is in reflection of the fact that those countries and territories who have adequately contained or limited the coronavirus could open their borders to one another, long before they do to those places which did not move so quickly (like the US). Think New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan and South Korea and others in a sort of multi-party 'bubble', for 12-24 months. That may actually increase demand on AKL - TPE and AKL - ICN, if people from both sides can't holiday in places like the US or Europe, but still want to go somewhere. That, plus the fact that supply chains have been disrupted and New Zealand's economy is complementary to Taiwan's and South Korea's, and could take advantage of reduced air links to our competitor markets for Taiwan and South Korea exports (like in Europe and the US).

DavidByrne wrote:
Bali and other ... destinations likely to be off-limits for a while.

Yeah. As above, we may actually see increased demand on routes to places which may not be off-limits (i.e. where coronavirus is contained or eliminated). Australia, Taiwan and South Korea may be in this category (as may the Pacific Island countries, if they decide to open to us).

Cheers,

C.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:47 am

Australia needs to get its own states to allow people to travel between the two , before we if start to start about the idea of traveling to Australia again (if they let us back in this year). Then you would probably want to go oneway, as it likely New Zealand would still want to isolate you for 14 days on your return (Subject to the election result - maybe they could put it an question on the voting form).
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1673
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:19 am

zkncj wrote:
Australia needs to get its own states to allow people to travel between the two , before we if start to start about the idea of traveling to Australia again (if they let us back in this year). Then you would probably want to go oneway, as it likely New Zealand would still want to isolate you for 14 days on your return (Subject to the election result - maybe they could put it an question on the voting form).

If both New Zealand and Australia effectively eliminate (or very close) the virus, then there would be pressure from both sides to open up and remove the quarantine requirement for each other's residents. What would the purpose of quarantine be if both countries were virus-free, after all? Likewise, the Pacific islands may be anxious about letting in the virus, but could find it hard to forgo the potential tourist revenue from New Zealanders and Australians if both countries were genuinely virus-free.

Yes, LAX is still operating, but don't expect it to go beyond the current frequencies until there is a vaccine in widespread use. Freight will be the main driver of the route from then on, and there will be a quarantine period for as long as it takes to get the country together, which on present evidence looks to be waaaay in the distance.

Gasman made two other very important points which are worth repeating. First, the lockdown has shown us that there is actually very little travel that necessitates risking your life or the welfare of the community for. Second, the prevailing mood of society (and the amount of disposable income, which will be significantly reduced for many) will determine how much people travel in future. News from WHO yesterday that exposure to the virus may NOT necessarily mean that there is immunity thereafter is also a sobering thought. That's the case with one of the "other" coronaviruses, the common cold, which can be caught several times in one season. Imagine if covid-19 turned out to be like that . . . doesn't bear thinking about.

It's by no means sure that things will bounce back to the status quo ante, despite assertions that it's only a matter of time from some posters. This is very different from other aviation crises.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1087
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 7:51 am

DavidByrne wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Australia needs to get its own states to allow people to travel between the two , before we if start to start about the idea of traveling to Australia again (if they let us back in this year). Then you would probably want to go oneway, as it likely New Zealand would still want to isolate you for 14 days on your return (Subject to the election result - maybe they could put it an question on the voting form).

If both New Zealand and Australia effectively eliminate (or very close) the virus, then there would be pressure from both sides to open up and remove the quarantine requirement for each other's residents. What would the purpose of quarantine be if both countries were virus-free, after all? Likewise, the Pacific islands may be anxious about letting in the virus, but could find it hard to forgo the potential tourist revenue from New Zealanders and Australians if both countries were genuinely virus-free.

Yes, LAX is still operating, but don't expect it to go beyond the current frequencies until there is a vaccine in widespread use. Freight will be the main driver of the route from then on, and there will be a quarantine period for as long as it takes to get the country together, which on present evidence looks to be waaaay in the distance.

Gasman made two other very important points which are worth repeating. First, the lockdown has shown us that there is actually very little travel that necessitates risking your life or the welfare of the community for. Second, the prevailing mood of society (and the amount of disposable income, which will be significantly reduced for many) will determine how much people travel in future. News from WHO yesterday that exposure to the virus may NOT necessarily mean that there is immunity thereafter is also a sobering thought. That's the case with one of the "other" coronaviruses, the common cold, which can be caught several times in one season. Imagine if covid-19 turned out to be like that . . . doesn't bear thinking about.

It's by no means sure that things will bounce back to the status quo ante, despite assertions that it's only a matter of time from some posters. This is very different from other aviation crises.


Didn't Dr Fauci say that he is certain COVID-19 will return in winter together with the common cold in the US? If that is the case, the only way for it to not return is completely eliminate the virus which is possible the way both Australia and New Zealand are going about it. Based on that, I can see international travel be limited to only trans-Tasman for the near future. And if any 3rd country wants to join this travel bubble, it must agree to not open its borders to any other country unless agreed by all. It will be like a virus free alliance.
 
Gasman
Posts: 2202
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 10:06 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:03 am

xiaotung wrote:
Didn't Dr Fauci say that he is certain COVID-19 will return in winter together with the common cold in the US? If that is the case, the only way for it to not return is completely eliminate the virus which is possible the way both Australia and New Zealand are going about it. Based on that, I can see international travel be limited to only trans-Tasman for the near future. And if any 3rd country wants to join this travel bubble, it must agree to not open its borders to any other country unless agreed by all. It will be like a virus free alliance.


Don't fall into the trap of thinking a Trans Tasman travel bubble is a given. Either country in doing so, opens itself up to the complete gammut of geopolitical influences of the other. If Australia, for example, is under severe political pressure to open its borders to say, Indonesia; then that means we too are exposed to whatever Covid-19 transmission risks that implies. I agree - it's a no-brainer that Trans Tasman travel will be the first to open up when the time comes; but before that happens our own governing bodies will have to be satisfied that Australia itself is not at risk from other populations beyond our control. Which effectively mandates a significant reduction in the *worldwide* threat of Covid-19.
 
YZ717
Posts: 7
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:38 am

I was looking at FlightRadar tonight and saw four planes en-route LAX-AKL...NZ6081, NZ6187, NZ1, NZ6185. Suppose three cargo flights and one carrying passengers. Nevertheless, found it quite unexpected to have so much cargo capacity. Or is there something I am missing?
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1087
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 26, 2020 10:44 am

YZ717 wrote:
I was looking at FlightRadar tonight and saw four planes en-route LAX-AKL...NZ6081, NZ6187, NZ1, NZ6185. Suppose three cargo flights and one carrying passengers. Nevertheless, found it quite unexpected to have so much cargo capacity. Or is there something I am missing?


I think I read it somewhere (may have been CAPA) that pre-COVID-19, over 90% cargo was carried by passenger jets. So yes, with all passenger flights grounded, there will be a huge supply shortage. All of my online shopping items from the US are having real trouble getting here. Most haven't even left the States nearly a month after posting them.
 
NZ516
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:32 am

Australian government wants travel restrictions with NZ to ease in second half of 2020
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... lf-of-2020

This would be a huge benefit for NZ as nearly half our tourists come from Australia which would be a huge savior for our industry and saving many jobs going forward .
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:41 am

NZ516 wrote:
Australian government wants travel restrictions with NZ to ease in second half of 2020
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... lf-of-2020

This would be a huge benefit for NZ as nearly half our tourists come from Australia which would be a huge savior for our industry and saving many jobs going forward .


It would be ab good test case too, e.g give it an go an see if case numbers start to rise again that are related to travel.

I feel like they will want some sort of Tasman Travel agreement to be in place, at-least an month or two out from the general election in September. Otherwise its just going to be an campaign nightmare, and would be come an huge debate of the election.
 
xiaotung
Posts: 1087
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 4:46 am

NZ516 wrote:
Australian government wants travel restrictions with NZ to ease in second half of 2020
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politi ... lf-of-2020

This would be a huge benefit for NZ as nearly half our tourists come from Australia which would be a huge savior for our industry and saving many jobs going forward .


It will be a good opportunity for both governments to abandon or at least waive the departure fees during this period to stimulate demand if and when this travel bubble becomes reality.
 
zkncj
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:23 am

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121295428/quarantine-and-contact-tracing-what-the-transtasman-bubble-might-look-like

But in the latest update, Jactina is hinting that on the New Zealand side the 14 day isolation period would still apply!
 
NZ801
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:41 am

Interesting seeing flights we’d never normally see - this one BOM-CHC.

https://www.flightradar24.com/ANZ1957/24694d4c
 
DavidByrne
Posts: 1673
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 6:46 am

zkncj wrote:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121295428/quarantine-and-contact-tracing-what-the-transtasman-bubble-might-look-like

But in the latest update, Jactina is hinting that on the New Zealand side the 14 day isolation period would still apply!

It will be a progressive loosening, not just flicking a switch to resume free access. Patience will be required. The positive takeaway is that both countries recognize the value of a Transtasman travel bubble. IMO it could start by mid-year as long as we keep progress on eliminating the virus.

The more interesting question will be which airlines take advantage of it, and how aggressive they are in terms of opening routes and frequency. NZ is the market leader and won't want to relinquish that position. By contrast, QF will see an opportunity to make inroads into NZ's market share. What of JQ? Will be interesting to see how they play the Tasman market in future.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:27 am

DavidByrne wrote:
zkncj wrote:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121295428/quarantine-and-contact-tracing-what-the-transtasman-bubble-might-look-like

But in the latest update, Jactina is hinting that on the New Zealand side the 14 day isolation period would still apply!

It will be a progressive loosening, not just flicking a switch to resume free access. Patience will be required. The positive takeaway is that both countries recognize the value of a Transtasman travel bubble. IMO it could start by mid-year as long as we keep progress on eliminating the virus.

The more interesting question will be which airlines take advantage of it, and how aggressive they are in terms of opening routes and frequency. NZ is the market leader and won't want to relinquish that position. By contrast, QF will see an opportunity to make inroads into NZ's market share. What of JQ? Will be interesting to see how they play the Tasman market in future.


The frequency will be determined by the quarantine period to a large extent, I would have thought. 14 days quarantine means not many will travel because they won't have the leave to sit in isolation for 2 weeks in an NZ hotel before their holiday, or on their return to NZ from OZ. So if it's 14 day quarantine it's sure going to be slow going in terms of frequencies and growth. If they can reduce this down to something like 48 hours or do a blood-test before travel, we could be in a different situation.
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Some1Somewhere
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 27, 2020 3:29 pm

The problem is that people infected in transit are not going to show up on any test for a minimum of several days after exposure. Any fast-tracked system therefore would have to avoid any chance of infection in-flight or at terminals.

The only real way around this is to ensure that *everyone* they are in close contact with during travel is equally disease free, which would require having separate arrivals facilities for those coming from 'clean' and 'dirty' locations/flights, similar to how international and domestic are separated. This would likely also extend to a separate fleet for domestic, within-bubble, and outside-bubble flights.

With the big reduction in loadings this might be possible though.
 
NZ321
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:01 pm

Some1Somewhere wrote:
The problem is that people infected in transit are not going to show up on any test for a minimum of several days after exposure. Any fast-tracked system therefore would have to avoid any chance of infection in-flight or at terminals.

The only real way around this is to ensure that *everyone* they are in close contact with during travel is equally disease free, which would require having separate arrivals facilities for those coming from 'clean' and 'dirty' locations/flights, similar to how international and domestic are separated. This would likely also extend to a separate fleet for domestic, within-bubble, and outside-bubble flights.

With the big reduction in loadings this might be possible though.


Yes I agree. Airport logistics could be rethought. And with improvements in blood testing it could be possible to test reliably before a flight as a condition of entry to the terminal / check in and shorten the isolation window on arrival. Lots of logistics involved but perhaps such an arrangement would be possible between trusted countries with reciprocal arrangements. Otherwise international air travel is going to be pretty minimal.
Plane mad!
 
Some1Somewhere
Posts: 45
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:09 pm

It would only work between trusted, virus-free countries.

Otherwise you could still get infected people in the screening queues passing it on to others in the queue, or others recently infected in the general population, who will test negative for at least several days.

Most tests generally just will not work until the virus has built up enough in the body to be contagious or nearly contagious.

One option could be quarantine in the origin rather than destination country, but this is still going to be lengthy and troublesome. It also means you have to prevent the virus getting in rather than out, which is going to be near impossible with the kinds of infection levels some cities are seeing and where it only has to be someone coughing or sneezing near a tray of food...

Antibody testing is really nice in theory but in general, not just for this virus, has such a high false positive rate that they are only useful for estimating what proportion of the population has had the virus, not any specific person.
 
Kaiarahi
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:33 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if YVR restarts before SFO, ORD, IAH. Canada has handled COVID much better than the US and infection / hospitalization rates are much lower, and now declining. 80% of the deaths were in long-term care facilities. The US-Canada border is closed to all but essential services, so there wouldn't be any US traffic routing through YVR. There's a significant amount of eastern Canadian traffic (YYZ, YUL, YOW) that would be routed through YVR, instead of ORD, SFO, LAX.
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
NZ516
Posts: 460
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Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:39 pm

Two years at least for partial Covid-19 domestic flight recovery, says air boss

Demand for air travel in New Zealand may take as long as two years to return to even 60 per cent of the pre-pandemic level, according to the chief executive of the Airways Corporation of New Zealand.

Graeme Sumner made the gloomy forecast as he backed proposals by Airways, which runs the country's air traffic control services, to reduce services across seven regional airports in New Zealand, including Rotorua, Hawke's Bay, Gisborne, New Plymouth and Invercargill.

"The recovery of demand for air travel nationally is expected to be slow and may take up to two years to return to just 60 per cent of pre-pandemic levels with border controls expected to be in place for some time," Sumner said.


https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/12124722 ... t-recovery

Can see this happening, as the challenge going ahead for the nation is so many kiwis will be out of work and be on the breadline and won't have any disposable income to even take domestic holidays. It will be cheaper to take the family out in a car for some considerable time while fuel is so low. Large numbers of people that have fallen on hard times and on benefits will be living day to day for quite some time unfortunately.
 
NZ516
Posts: 460
Joined: Thu Aug 29, 2019 12:21 am

Re: New Zealand Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:53 pm

Air NZ crews hoping to halt redundancies until alert level 2

Air New Zealand management is facing an escalating industrial stoush over plans to lay off hundreds of flight attendants, while many staff are expressing concerns the company is not doing enough to curb the risks of spreading Covid-19.
The pandemic has forced the national carrier to slash international and domestic flights, as New Zealand's borders are essentially shut to everyone except returning residents or citizens, who are quarantined for two weeks on arrival.

Air NZ flight attendants are claiming 950 of them will be served redundancy notices next week.

They want the process halted, as it started during lockdown, and they have not received proper consultations beyond company-led livestreams.


https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programm ... rt-level-2

Very difficult situation especially while still in lockdown. I don’t think Air NZ or any other airline that wants to survive the crisis can continue without layoffs. As has been mentioned, the market might recover in an year. But, it could take a lot longer because the economic downturn after the crises. You can’t have half your staff waiting around for something that might happen. I do think this is an necessity especially with all 15 777s completely out of service for a least a year. That is half the wide body fleet.
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