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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:21 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Been reported through multiple other forums that VA had just closed transfers of points from Velocity to KrisFlyer.
Unsure if the other way is still open or not. TBH, I'm more surprised it the Velocity > Krisflyer transfers has lasted this long since the Covid-19 Pandemic started.


They began limiting gift cards to one per day this morning, maybe that was a sign of things to come!
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:46 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
cam747 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Some paintwork and rebranding is probably cheaper than Virgin licensing fees. Does anybody know what those fees are, anyway? They can't be cheap!


It’s no longer disclosed, but up to 2015 (the last time it was in the accounts) it was about $10m p.a.


$10m per year? Okay, a rebranding is sounding better and better.


Still doesnt go very far in reaping even $1bn in debt though.... It might be a low hanging small fish in the scheme of things.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:29 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Been reported through multiple other forums that VA had just closed transfers of points from Velocity to KrisFlyer.
Unsure if the other way is still open or not.


Confirmed, see https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... -suspended.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:30 am

qf2220 wrote:
Still doesnt go very far in reaping even $1bn in debt though.... It might be a low hanging small fish in the scheme of things.


True, but you know what they say, "if you look after the millions, the billions will look after themselves" LOL
Last edited by CraigAnderson on Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Ryanair01
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:56 am

travelhound wrote:
aerohottie wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

Yep. The shareholdings have to go at no cost to the taxpaer.

Perhaps not an important question to some but one that I think is important, what would it call itself if it wasnt Virgin??

Ansett?


There are some good reasons why the government shouldn’t bail out VA. A bail out of any type would in essence make the government a guarantor for VA’s existing $5 billion in debt.

If we consider the majority of this debt is with overseas institutions and the debt is secured by aircraft that will have reduced value in a fundamentally smaller market, a $1.4 billion debt saviour for VA could quickly become a $3-4 billion debt burden for the government.

If we tease out a scenario where VA was allowed to fold, 80% of the debt would be written off by institutions outside of Australia. If we consider VA already had high levels of debt, this may not be a bad thing.

With an excess of aircraft expected on the world markets, there should be plenty of opportunity for another operator to take over where VA left off. Considering VA’s airport facilities would become available, this could even allow for two - three new operators to come on line without the risks associated with access to airport infrastructure.

On the flip side, if VA was rescued by the government, I suspect a smaller VA with (5+1.4) $6.4 billion in debt would not be capable of ever paying it off.

Even though QF has similar levels of debt, it has higher cash reserves and approximately three times more revenue. Prior to the outbreak it was generating in excess of $1billion in free cash flows. On the other hand VA’s cash generation was negative.

I can’t see VA ever having the capability of paying off $6.4 billion in debt. Their transformation cost around $2billion over ten years......and we all know where that got them. The numbers associated with a VA bail out would simply result in a weaker airline that would struggle financially into the foreseeable future.


There is less than zero prospect of anybody investing in a new operation for a very long time. Every airline worldwide is facing financial destruction, which includes blue-chip carriers. The established 'flag carrier' blue-chips will hoover up any available capital available to aviation.

None of VA's shareholders are in a position to invest.

I get the point about overseas ownership and debt. Unfortunately, in a globalised economy, the domestic operations of oversea's interests can still be of strategic national importance. From a Federal Government perspective, a second airline is needed, because of Australia's inherent reliance on aviation. It's not like Ansett where others are waiting in the wings. So the Federal Government will need to do something, it doesn't mean they will, of course.

My guess is they'd be best placed to let VA go into administration and back an asset purchase (for probably a nominal value). That way the strategically important operations can continue, but Federal Funds aren't used to pay off overseas debt or part bailout Etihad, Singaporian, Chinese and (whatever dodgy arrangements SRB has or hasn't got) interests.

AJ and the QF press office can lobby what they like, but a monopoly isn't acceptable.
 
qf002
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:07 pm

n251ay wrote:
Will depart around 1600 tomorrow (04APR). Would love to see pictures in case some spotters are still out :-)


I’m hoping to get to the airport (to do some essential exercise on the beach) on Sunday to see the KLM departure at 1540.
 
Ryanair01
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:28 pm

 
AVB
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:34 pm

Future flying will be heavily reduced and we won’t see schedules return to what we had for many years. Australia doesn’t have a need for two carriers based on the financial, social and global challenges ahead.

Yes, we want VA for competition, however it’s not possible to survive the short to medium term without things going back pre-covid19. That won’t be happening anytime soon.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:53 pm

Virgin repatriation flights

BNE-HKG 2 weekly
BNE-LAX 1 weekly

Both flights operated by 77W

https://twitter.com/AusBT/status/124605 ... 18848?s=20
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travelhound
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:55 pm

Ryanair01 wrote:
travelhound wrote:
aerohottie wrote:
Ansett?


There are some good reasons why the government shouldn’t bail out VA. A bail out of any type would in essence make the government a guarantor for VA’s existing $5 billion in debt.

If we consider the majority of this debt is with overseas institutions and the debt is secured by aircraft that will have reduced value in a fundamentally smaller market, a $1.4 billion debt saviour for VA could quickly become a $3-4 billion debt burden for the government.

If we tease out a scenario where VA was allowed to fold, 80% of the debt would be written off by institutions outside of Australia. If we consider VA already had high levels of debt, this may not be a bad thing.

With an excess of aircraft expected on the world markets, there should be plenty of opportunity for another operator to take over where VA left off. Considering VA’s airport facilities would become available, this could even allow for two - three new operators to come on line without the risks associated with access to airport infrastructure.

On the flip side, if VA was rescued by the government, I suspect a smaller VA with (5+1.4) $6.4 billion in debt would not be capable of ever paying it off.

Even though QF has similar levels of debt, it has higher cash reserves and approximately three times more revenue. Prior to the outbreak it was generating in excess of $1billion in free cash flows. On the other hand VA’s cash generation was negative.

I can’t see VA ever having the capability of paying off $6.4 billion in debt. Their transformation cost around $2billion over ten years......and we all know where that got them. The numbers associated with a VA bail out would simply result in a weaker airline that would struggle financially into the foreseeable future.


There is less than zero prospect of anybody investing in a new operation for a very long time. Every airline worldwide is facing financial destruction, which includes blue-chip carriers. The established 'flag carrier' blue-chips will hoover up any available capital available to aviation.

None of VA's shareholders are in a position to invest.

I get the point about overseas ownership and debt. Unfortunately, in a globalised economy, the domestic operations of oversea's interests can still be of strategic national importance. From a Federal Government perspective, a second airline is needed, because of Australia's inherent reliance on aviation. It's not like Ansett where others are waiting in the wings. So the Federal Government will need to do something, it doesn't mean they will, of course.

My guess is they'd be best placed to let VA go into administration and back an asset purchase (for probably a nominal value). That way the strategically important operations can continue, but Federal Funds aren't used to pay off overseas debt or part bailout Etihad, Singaporian, Chinese and (whatever dodgy arrangements SRB has or hasn't got) interests.

AJ and the QF press office can lobby what they like, but a monopoly isn't acceptable.


Once the pandemic is over, I suspect there will be a lot of opportunity for the stronger airlines to invest in new segments of the market. Just remember, there is a reason why businesses like to give their investors money.

My preference would be for VA's airport terminal leases to go back to the airports who in turn adopt a multi-user model. This would allow "start-ups" access to adequate airport facilities, which has always been a significant barrier for budding new entrants in the past.

To out this into perspective, a small airline like Jetstar Asia (that owns the majority of its aircraft and has relatively low debt levels when compared to its piers) could have significant opportunity to expand simply on the basis it's competitors are debt laden and incapable of responding to new competition. If we consider lessors will be looking to let aircraft at a significant discount and airports may be willing to waive fees for the sake of stimulating the market, there will be plenty of leavers that the stronger more agile airlines can pull.

When this is all over, there could be 10-20% less airlines in the world. As such, a market that is 6-8% smaller will have 15-25% more opportunity than it did prior to the crisis.

One thing is for sure, business is still going to be business. That will never change!
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:01 pm

Condor 763 D-ABUB departed SYD this afternoon on a repatriation flight

Image

Image

https://twitter.com/www16Right/status/1 ... 69699?s=20
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Ryanair01
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:20 pm

travelhound wrote:
Ryanair01 wrote:
travelhound wrote:

There are some good reasons why the government shouldn’t bail out VA. A bail out of any type would in essence make the government a guarantor for VA’s existing $5 billion in debt.

If we consider the majority of this debt is with overseas institutions and the debt is secured by aircraft that will have reduced value in a fundamentally smaller market, a $1.4 billion debt saviour for VA could quickly become a $3-4 billion debt burden for the government.

If we tease out a scenario where VA was allowed to fold, 80% of the debt would be written off by institutions outside of Australia. If we consider VA already had high levels of debt, this may not be a bad thing.

With an excess of aircraft expected on the world markets, there should be plenty of opportunity for another operator to take over where VA left off. Considering VA’s airport facilities would become available, this could even allow for two - three new operators to come on line without the risks associated with access to airport infrastructure.

On the flip side, if VA was rescued by the government, I suspect a smaller VA with (5+1.4) $6.4 billion in debt would not be capable of ever paying it off.

Even though QF has similar levels of debt, it has higher cash reserves and approximately three times more revenue. Prior to the outbreak it was generating in excess of $1billion in free cash flows. On the other hand VA’s cash generation was negative.

I can’t see VA ever having the capability of paying off $6.4 billion in debt. Their transformation cost around $2billion over ten years......and we all know where that got them. The numbers associated with a VA bail out would simply result in a weaker airline that would struggle financially into the foreseeable future.


There is less than zero prospect of anybody investing in a new operation for a very long time. Every airline worldwide is facing financial destruction, which includes blue-chip carriers. The established 'flag carrier' blue-chips will hoover up any available capital available to aviation.

None of VA's shareholders are in a position to invest.

I get the point about overseas ownership and debt. Unfortunately, in a globalised economy, the domestic operations of oversea's interests can still be of strategic national importance. From a Federal Government perspective, a second airline is needed, because of Australia's inherent reliance on aviation. It's not like Ansett where others are waiting in the wings. So the Federal Government will need to do something, it doesn't mean they will, of course.

My guess is they'd be best placed to let VA go into administration and back an asset purchase (for probably a nominal value). That way the strategically important operations can continue, but Federal Funds aren't used to pay off overseas debt or part bailout Etihad, Singaporian, Chinese and (whatever dodgy arrangements SRB has or hasn't got) interests.

AJ and the QF press office can lobby what they like, but a monopoly isn't acceptable.


Once the pandemic is over, I suspect there will be a lot of opportunity for the stronger airlines to invest in new segments of the market. Just remember, there is a reason why businesses like to give their investors money.

My preference would be for VA's airport terminal leases to go back to the airports who in turn adopt a multi-user model. This would allow "start-ups" access to adequate airport facilities, which has always been a significant barrier for budding new entrants in the past.

To out this into perspective, a small airline like Jetstar Asia (that owns the majority of its aircraft and has relatively low debt levels when compared to its piers) could have significant opportunity to expand simply on the basis it's competitors are debt laden and incapable of responding to new competition. If we consider lessors will be looking to let aircraft at a significant discount and airports may be willing to waive fees for the sake of stimulating the market, there will be plenty of leavers that the stronger more agile airlines can pull.

When this is all over, there could be 10-20% less airlines in the world. As such, a market that is 6-8% smaller will have 15-25% more opportunity than it did prior to the crisis.

One thing is for sure, business is still going to be business. That will never change!


Without government bailouts, not a single airline in the world can survive 6 months of this. Not one.

Government bailouts come with strings, I know, I am personally working on one (not in Australia). I've literally just had to submit modelling to justify new ground procedures if a bus is used, to help maintain a 2m gap between passengers. I've also just submitted a paper to government regarding terminal staffing levels, which they have to agree to. That's because the bailout has conditions that mean zero cost increases and (to my point) no capital spend without prior government agreement.

I'm sorry, but really, there will be no international investments for a very long time. The kind of bailouts we are seeing don't allow for it.
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:13 am

Thai Airways has adjusted plans for return to service to Australia, now showing 1 July instead of previously planned resumption in June

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-03apr20/
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:15 am

Etihad is planning resumption of passenger services 22 Apr 20, planned operation 22-30 Apr 20 will include

BNE - 3 weekly 789

SYD - 1 daily 789

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-03apr20/
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Velocity7
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:39 am

Interesting post on LinkedIn from Virgin Australia 3 hours ago:

" A monopoly in Australian skies will be good for no one. Not the 25 million people who fly with Virgin Australia. Not our 10,000 incredible people, or the 600,000 people who work in tourism. Not the Australian economy, to which we add $11 billion a year. Even our biggest competitors need a challenger to keep them honest and innovative"

It's definitely a move away from their normal type of more 'fluffy' style posts on social media, even compared to recent days/weeks. Things must be very grim if they themselves are referring to a 'monopoly' now in such an open forum?
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:45 am

Velocity7 wrote:
Interesting post on LinkedIn from Virgin Australia 3 hours ago:

" A monopoly in Australian skies will be good for no one. Not the 25 million people who fly with Virgin Australia. Not our 10,000 incredible people, or the 600,000 people who work in tourism. Not the Australian economy, to which we add $11 billion a year. Even our biggest competitors need a challenger to keep them honest and innovative"

It's definitely a move away from their normal type of more 'fluffy' style posts on social media, even compared to recent days/weeks. Things must be very grim if they themselves are referring to a 'monopoly' now in such an open forum?


It's starting to feel like they are days away, more than they are months away.

There instagram post last night felt like they had made an farewell video

Wonder what there liabilities are now mount to with with Visa/MasterCard for service paid for and not delivered.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:55 am

RB has suspended licensing fees to companies using the "Virgin" brand for the rest of 2020.

https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/sir-r ... -payments/
 
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Velocity7
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:00 am

zkncj wrote:
Velocity7 wrote:
Interesting post on LinkedIn from Virgin Australia 3 hours ago:

" A monopoly in Australian skies will be good for no one. Not the 25 million people who fly with Virgin Australia. Not our 10,000 incredible people, or the 600,000 people who work in tourism. Not the Australian economy, to which we add $11 billion a year. Even our biggest competitors need a challenger to keep them honest and innovative"

It's definitely a move away from their normal type of more 'fluffy' style posts on social media, even compared to recent days/weeks. Things must be very grim if they themselves are referring to a 'monopoly' now in such an open forum?


It's starting to feel like they are days away, more than they are months away.

There instagram post last night felt like they had made an farewell video

Wonder what there liabilities are now mount to with with Visa/MasterCard for service paid for and not delivered.


And this type of wording/post would absolutely need a green light from more than just the SM team - it's a clear change in approach for a SM piece IMHO. I really hope they can survive...but agree, it's feeling more desperate
 
travelhound
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 2:44 am

Ryanair01 wrote:
travelhound wrote:
Ryanair01 wrote:

There is less than zero prospect of anybody investing in a new operation for a very long time. Every airline worldwide is facing financial destruction, which includes blue-chip carriers. The established 'flag carrier' blue-chips will hoover up any available capital available to aviation.

None of VA's shareholders are in a position to invest.

I get the point about overseas ownership and debt. Unfortunately, in a globalised economy, the domestic operations of oversea's interests can still be of strategic national importance. From a Federal Government perspective, a second airline is needed, because of Australia's inherent reliance on aviation. It's not like Ansett where others are waiting in the wings. So the Federal Government will need to do something, it doesn't mean they will, of course.

My guess is they'd be best placed to let VA go into administration and back an asset purchase (for probably a nominal value). That way the strategically important operations can continue, but Federal Funds aren't used to pay off overseas debt or part bailout Etihad, Singaporian, Chinese and (whatever dodgy arrangements SRB has or hasn't got) interests.

AJ and the QF press office can lobby what they like, but a monopoly isn't acceptable.


Once the pandemic is over, I suspect there will be a lot of opportunity for the stronger airlines to invest in new segments of the market. Just remember, there is a reason why businesses like to give their investors money.

My preference would be for VA's airport terminal leases to go back to the airports who in turn adopt a multi-user model. This would allow "start-ups" access to adequate airport facilities, which has always been a significant barrier for budding new entrants in the past.

To out this into perspective, a small airline like Jetstar Asia (that owns the majority of its aircraft and has relatively low debt levels when compared to its piers) could have significant opportunity to expand simply on the basis it's competitors are debt laden and incapable of responding to new competition. If we consider lessors will be looking to let aircraft at a significant discount and airports may be willing to waive fees for the sake of stimulating the market, there will be plenty of leavers that the stronger more agile airlines can pull.

When this is all over, there could be 10-20% less airlines in the world. As such, a market that is 6-8% smaller will have 15-25% more opportunity than it did prior to the crisis.

One thing is for sure, business is still going to be business. That will never change!


Without government bailouts, not a single airline in the world can survive 6 months of this. Not one.

Government bailouts come with strings, I know, I am personally working on one (not in Australia). I've literally just had to submit modelling to justify new ground procedures if a bus is used, to help maintain a 2m gap between passengers. I've also just submitted a paper to government regarding terminal staffing levels, which they have to agree to. That's because the bailout has conditions that mean zero cost increases and (to my point) no capital spend without prior government agreement.

I'm sorry, but really, there will be no international investments for a very long time. The kind of bailouts we are seeing don't allow for it.


If there is an opportunity for corporate welfare, most businesses will put their hand up!

If we go back to the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the oversupply of new residential units resulted in an overvaluation of the property market.

The market adjusted by lowering the price of the property, which in turn opened up property ownership to a greater amount of people.

On the back side of the crisis, the people who brought these units became part of the emerging Asian middle class; which have been the backbone of Asian domestic economic growth over the last 10 years.

In essence the crisis transferred wealth from investment banks to individuals. Ultimately, in the end everyone was a winner (investors have been riding a investment honeymoon for ten years)!

In my opinion, if the government wants to back a winner, it should be backing the Australian people. Ultimately, they will be the ones that underpin the nations economy. The corporate community and the backers that sit behind them will always have enough money to pick their winning investment horses when the dust settles.

For me the worry about Virgin Australia folding revolves around the people. The investors will still have their Ferraris.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:08 am

KLM 772 about to touch down in SYD

From today CX has sent 77W to BNE

PER to get second freighter today, after firstly seeing QR 777F, MH A332F is about an hour from touching down
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bjwonline
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:24 am

qf789 wrote:
KLM 772 about to touch down in SYD

From today CX has sent 77W to BNE

PER to get second freighter today, after firstly seeing QR 777F, MH A332F is about an hour from touching down


Been a great afternoon here next to SYD today. First the Elderweiss 343 departure and now the KLM 772 arrival. In a very little way these rare sightings are getting us through a very tough time with very little else to look at in the skies right now
 
qf2048
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:15 am

bjwonline wrote:
qf789 wrote:
KLM 772 about to touch down in SYD

From today CX has sent 77W to BNE

PER to get second freighter today, after firstly seeing QR 777F, MH A332F is about an hour from touching down


Been a great afternoon here next to SYD today. First the Elderweiss 343 departure and now the KLM 772 arrival. In a very little way these rare sightings are getting us through a very tough time with very little else to look at in the skies right now

Accoring to Flightaware Elderweiss' next stop is HKT. Just a quick gas and go I presume?
ZL,QF,KE,BA,AS,CX,FR,U2,W6,EI,IB,JL,AY,LH,AA,AC,FQ,DJ,JQ,LA,FJ,QS,NZ,NF,SB,PG,EK,AB,VA,MH,KA,VN
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:25 am

Turns out Branson is only "deferring" licensing fees and it'll have to be "paid back eventually". RB sure doing "his part" to ensure his part owned companies (in trouble) hit the wall.

SCFlyer wrote:
RB has suspended licensing fees to companies using the "Virgin" brand for the rest of 2020.

https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/sir-r ... -payments/
 
aerokiwi
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:48 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Turns out Branson is only "deferring" licensing fees and it'll have to be "paid back eventually". RB sure doing "his part" to ensure his part owned companies (in trouble) hit the wall.

SCFlyer wrote:
RB has suspended licensing fees to companies using the "Virgin" brand for the rest of 2020.

https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/sir-r ... -payments/


According to the same article, he's injecting GBP250 million into these companies too. If true, surely that's worth mentioning, no? Or are we jut being selective here? Raises the question of whether any of that will go to VA.

The step up in communications efforts by VA are no doubt to counter the "high level" leaks campaign that The Age noted today, as well as the poor reaction to Joyce's tanty. Obviously things are pretty dire, so you may as well put it all out there. Also identifies other recap options for VA and rightly poo poohs the idea from another Age article that a Ryanair-esque carrier will swoop in: https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 54gwu.html
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:06 am

Agree I don't see someone else swooping in with a new airline. And any admin/bankruptcy will immediately loss in the loss of most of the leased fleet.
Still some potential that existing or new shareholders may invest.

That said for the protection of jobs and tourism the government should be willing to step in - but it certainly shouldn't be a gift.

Ideally it would be some form of a backstop loan to prevent a run by customers or suppliers. Any actual loan should be expensive and ideally come with some form of equity dilution. So the government doesn't actually take ownership say $ for $ options exercisable at a discount.. if the business recovers these options can then be sold to a 3rd party.
 
SYDSpotter
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:32 am

aerokiwi wrote:

Raises the question of whether any of that will go to VA.


Highly unlikely. As a minority 10% shareholder, why would he tip money in when the other 4 shareholders with 80% shareholding aren't doing anything...
319_320_321_332_333_359_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:58 am

Saw a full page add in the Hearld Sun today (Saturday 4/04/20) a picture of a Virgin Australia FA and a warning of a Monopoly is that more proof that Virgin Australia is going to shut down?
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:07 am

Asked this in a Virgin post before but never got an answer, what will happen to SkyWest in Western Australia if Virgin go under? Will they go back to being Sky West again with the Sky West livery, they survived Ansett could they survive a total shut down of Virgin?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:08 am

Edelweiss A343 seen departing SYD earlier today

Image

https://twitter.com/aussiepomm/status/1 ... 15717?s=21
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:25 am

These VA LAX-BNE repatriation flights puzzle me. I can buy a SFO-SYD ticket on UA all next week and the seat maps show no more than 1/3 full. Are the VA flights to avoid a 2 week quarantine in SYD followed by another 2 weeks in BNE? And what about MEL?
 
djczdjcz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:27 am

There appears to be a Condor 767 inbound to BNE from HKT. CFG894T / D-ABUO.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:40 am

eta unknown wrote:
These VA LAX-BNE repatriation flights puzzle me. I can buy a SFO-SYD ticket on UA all next week and the seat maps show no more than 1/3 full. Are the VA flights to avoid a 2 week quarantine in SYD followed by another 2 weeks in BNE? And what about MEL?


The flights are going from BNE to evenly spread returning passengers around Australia. At the moment SYD/MEL are taking the majority of incoming arrivals so the other capitals will start taking in arrivals. All arrivals will be subject to the current 14 days mandatory quarantine. At the moment, the State governments are responsible for the costs of quarantining returning travellers in hotels, so I'd imagine NSW/VIC will be keen on other states taking on their share given NSW/VIC are currently housing a number of interstate travellers.
319_320_321_332_333_359_388 / 734_737_738_743_744_762_763_772_773_77W_788_789
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:45 am

The first KLM flight operated by 772 PH-BQK landing in SYD

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https://twitter.com/aussiepomm/status/1 ... 83616?s=20
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moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:04 am

Re the LAX-BNE flights.

If living in Qld you want the direct flight. Otherwise up for 2x 14 day quarantine.
 
Deepinsider
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:04 am

There seems to be a lot of negative thought about the future of VA.

We must remember that the owners of VA are predominately
Singapore, Middle East, and the UK.

Current troubles, (building up long before Covid-19 of course)
are up to them. And not the business of OZ taxpayers.

Any Taxpayer bailout is just an unwarranted gift to those owners.

If the business is allowed to fail into administration, This would
be a clean sheet fresh start opportunity for a new opportunist,
Our Goverment or some one else (who would ever be brave enough?)

The point being; If a subsidy went to the current company, which then
continued, untold troubles with unions, suppliers, leasing companies,
airports,etc. would pretty well overwhelm efforts to establish recovery,
and give us a viable 2nd National carrier.

So although pretty well all readers here would wish VA good luck and to
carry on, if they can't, a failure is way better than a handout to foreigners.
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:21 am

That's why any support/loan has got to come with equity dilution attached. No free gifts

But if VA goes down it impacts a lot of related small businesses and pilots, FAs (and 10 million Velocity members) plus messes up tourism even more
 
Deepinsider
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:49 am

moa999 wrote:
That's why any support/loan has got to come with equity dilution attached. No free gifts

But if VA goes down it impacts a lot of related small businesses and pilots, FAs (and 10 million Velocity members) plus messes up tourism even more


The trouble with equity is that it just carries on the unsustainable business. (10 million Vel. members chose a foreign company remember.)
If I was a pilot and I chose to work for VA I would surely be smart enough to know that SRB would drop me without a thought when times got tough.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:00 pm

When AN went bust everyone lost their points. Probably same scenario with VA. Redeem your toasters while you can.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:13 pm

Some more photos of Edelweiss leaving SYD today

Image

Image

Image

Image

https://twitter.com/www16Right/status/1 ... 98689?s=20
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moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:33 pm

eta unknown wrote:
When AN went bust everyone lost their points. Probably same scenario with VA. Redeem your toasters while you can.
Toasters already limited, and transfers to SW stopped altogether
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 1:36 pm

Flyingsottsman wrote:
Asked this in a Virgin post before but never got an answer, what will happen to SkyWest in Western Australia if Virgin go under? Will they go back to being Sky West again with the Sky West livery, they survived Ansett could they survive a total shut down of Virgin?


SkyWest doesnt exist anymore, it is operated under Virgin Regional (VARA), so no the likelihood of it going back to SkyWest is unlikely
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 3:26 pm

BITRE for January 2020

Pretty good all round, last one for a while like that

https://www.bitre.gov.au/sites/default/ ... y_0120.pdf
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qf002
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:52 pm

VH-OEG just departed SYD bound for LAX as QF6001. Can’t see her returning sadly.
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:24 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
Asked this in a Virgin post before but never got an answer, what will happen to SkyWest in Western Australia if Virgin go under? Will they go back to being Sky West again with the Sky West livery, they survived Ansett could they survive a total shut down of Virgin?


Based on other situations where companies go under, if a component of it is profitable the administrators usually let it keep trading. I think the regional airlines of Ansett did this (ie Hazelton/Kendall etc) before they were bought out to became Rex no?
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:25 am

Reporting on ABC Insiders this morning that government is leaning towards providing Virgin with some form of bailout funding. Labour says this should come with equity.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:35 am

qf002 wrote:
VH-OEG just departed SYD bound for LAX as QF6001. Can’t see her returning sadly.


Presumably on her way to the scrapper? So much for all those Simple Flying articles about how the 744s weren't going to be retired. :roll:

Ryanair01 wrote:
There is less than zero prospect of anybody investing in a new operation for a very long time. Every airline worldwide is facing financial destruction, which includes blue-chip carriers. The established 'flag carrier' blue-chips will hoover up any available capital available to aviation.


:checkmark: If/when Virgin goes under nobody will replace them in the medium term. Qantas will have a domestic monopoly.

Ryanair01 wrote:
Without government bailouts, not a single airline in the world can survive 6 months of this. Not one.

:checkmark: Heck, three or four months is unlikely for most.
First to fly the 787-9
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:40 am

qf002 wrote:
VH-OEG just departed SYD bound for LAX as QF6001. Can’t see her returning sadly.

What will be telling in terms of if we'll see it back in our neck of the woods is whether it stays at the QF maintenance base at LAX, or continues on to SBD like -OEF, TUP like -OEB, or MHV like the -OJxs. I fear like you that this is a one-way journey.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
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a36001
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:03 am

qf002 wrote:
VH-OEG just departed SYD bound for LAX as QF6001. Can’t see her returning sadly.


The 747 fleet cannot fly for ever and I'd rather they go and be retired which will help in keeping Qantas in business, especially in the months coming. They have had a good run and are a classic so I can why it is a bit sad, but I guess as the saying goes..."in times like these".....
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:15 am

Not sure why everyone assume -OEG is off to the scrappers.

Repatriation flight....


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VHZNE
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 05, 2020 1:28 am

She’s off to MHV for storage however it’s pretty unlikely that it will return from storage.

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