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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:29 am

As previously discussed Qantas has cut domestic fleet to 1 737, 1 JQ A320 and 1 Q400

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... e-aircraft
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:50 am

Emirates latest update

ADL - daily 77L returning 21 May 20
BNE - double daily 77W/A380 from 1 Jun 20
MEL - double daily A388 from 1 Jun 20
PER - daily A388 from 1 May 20
DXB-SIN-MEL - delayed to restart 1 Aug 20, previous planned from 1 Jun 20
SYD - daily A388 from 1 May 20, second daily resumes 1 Sep 20
DXB-SYD-CHC - daily A388 from 1 Jun 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-11apr20/
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:33 am

qf789 wrote:
Emirates latest update

ADL - daily 77L returning 21 May 20
BNE - double daily 77W/A380 from 1 Jun 20
MEL - double daily A388 from 1 Jun 20
PER - daily A388 from 1 May 20
DXB-SIN-MEL - delayed to restart 1 Aug 20, previous planned from 1 Jun 20
SYD - daily A388 from 1 May 20, second daily resumes 1 Sep 20
DXB-SYD-CHC - daily A388 from 1 Jun 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-11apr20/

Emirates schedule is ambitious to say the least.


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Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
ArtV
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:36 am

This talk about appointing an Administrator, and then the process to restructure can be swift, ignores the ability for secured creditors to appoint a Receiver to protect their assets, leaving an empty shell with debt....unless all parties play nice. It gets very complicated, hence the government involvement in some way is preferred to protect a necessary national industry/service.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:51 am

EK413 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Emirates latest update

ADL - daily 77L returning 21 May 20
BNE - double daily 77W/A380 from 1 Jun 20
MEL - double daily A388 from 1 Jun 20
PER - daily A388 from 1 May 20
DXB-SIN-MEL - delayed to restart 1 Aug 20, previous planned from 1 Jun 20
SYD - daily A388 from 1 May 20, second daily resumes 1 Sep 20
DXB-SYD-CHC - daily A388 from 1 Jun 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-11apr20/

Emirates schedule is ambitious to say the least.


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Yes its ambitious, thought they would actually start services with 77W's at least if passenger loads were lighter than expected they could fill the hold with cargo.

One just has to look at what QR has done over the past week or so. Sure they could have just operated A388's to MEL, PER and SYD and not add the extra frequencies however by operating A350's and 77W's they have been able to use the available hold space for cargo.

I think moving forward cargo is going to be more important than ever
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:01 am

The LA 789 that flew into MEL yesterday is currently positioned to SYD

https://www.flightradar24.com/LXP1176/2458bff0
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:48 am

HiFly A343 9H-SUN currently doing a repatriation flight to MEL from MVD, expected to be around 16 hours flying time. There is apparently at least 80 passengers onboard confirmed with Coronavirus

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/9HSUN

https://twitter.com/andrew_lund/status/ ... 97761?s=20
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waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:51 am

EK413 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Emirates latest update

ADL - daily 77L returning 21 May 20
BNE - double daily 77W/A380 from 1 Jun 20
MEL - double daily A388 from 1 Jun 20
PER - daily A388 from 1 May 20
DXB-SIN-MEL - delayed to restart 1 Aug 20, previous planned from 1 Jun 20
SYD - daily A388 from 1 May 20, second daily resumes 1 Sep 20
DXB-SYD-CHC - daily A388 from 1 Jun 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-11apr20/

Emirates schedule is ambitious to say the least.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It was identified by WA government this week that there were not enough flights for our exports and getting in imports
So i suggest most of these will be carrying cargo more than passengers
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:52 am

waoz1 wrote:
EK413 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Emirates latest update

ADL - daily 77L returning 21 May 20
BNE - double daily 77W/A380 from 1 Jun 20
MEL - double daily A388 from 1 Jun 20
PER - daily A388 from 1 May 20
DXB-SIN-MEL - delayed to restart 1 Aug 20, previous planned from 1 Jun 20
SYD - daily A388 from 1 May 20, second daily resumes 1 Sep 20
DXB-SYD-CHC - daily A388 from 1 Jun 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-11apr20/

Emirates schedule is ambitious to say the least.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It was identified by WA government this week that there were not enough flights for our exports and getting in imports
So i suggest most of these will be carrying cargo more than passengers


Hence why they should be using the 77W over the A388
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BNEFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:44 am

rukundo wrote:
zkncj wrote:
qf789 wrote:
ZNE is currently positioning SYD-MEL as QF6006, apart from that no Qantas or Virgin planes in the air


Looks like VA9940 BNE-AKL (77W) has been delayed by 11hours, so there often of been an flight if it was on-time.

So Australia longest domes flight today was BNE-NLK-BNE.


Flights Stats shows a delay of 24hrs: https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... FEQ4dUDCAs

Flight Aware shows a delay of 4hrs: https://fr.flightaware.com/live/flight/VHVPD

While on Paris Aeroport, flight from Hong Kong should arrive à 10h00, instead of 7h30 : https://www.parisaeroport.fr/en/passeng ... ris%20(All)&other=HKG&comp=&date=20200412&following=0&schedule=-1&isArrival=True

I m bit confused

Can’t quite understand what zkncj said but it’s delayed until Sunday morning due to a tech issue.
 
rukundo
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:53 am

BNEFlyer wrote:
rukundo wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Looks like VA9940 BNE-AKL (77W) has been delayed by 11hours, so there often of been an flight if it was on-time.

So Australia longest domes flight today was BNE-NLK-BNE.


Flights Stats shows a delay of 24hrs: https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... FEQ4dUDCAs

Flight Aware shows a delay of 4hrs: https://fr.flightaware.com/live/flight/VHVPD

While on Paris Aeroport, flight from Hong Kong should arrive à 10h00, instead of 7h30 : https://www.parisaeroport.fr/en/passeng ... ris%20(All)&other=HKG&comp=&date=20200412&following=0&schedule=-1&isArrival=True

I m bit confused

Can’t quite understand what zkncj said but it’s delayed until Sunday morning due to a tech issue.


Thanks for the infos, i hoped to catch it, during my shift. I see that VP-VPH has just landed at BNE, from HKG, but i guess they can't use it, for the BNE-AKL-HKG-CDG
 
travelhound
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 10:32 am

Sydscott wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Borghetti's predecessor Godfrey was also quoted with similar comments in today's (paywalled) Australian article.

"Mr Godfrey said the airline had lost its cost advantage over the Qantas Group and any private or public investment should be contingent on Virgin Australia chief executive Paul Scrurrah forcing through a massive restructure to make the carrier viable in the long term."


Edit: Added Source: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/busine ... om=htc_rss


The other thing about "Public Investment" is that having Virgin go through a re-structure using our existing insolvency system means any Government "loan" would then have a far higher probability of being paid back. That same "Public Investment" could then be made available to Rex and Qantas on similar terms in that the Government is the priority Creditor and takes precedence over all others. Rex would likely also need to go through an insolvency process to achieve that. QF would likely need to negotiate with its existing Lenders to allow for the Government to have a priority.

But at the end of the day our existing insolvency system can deal with both Virgin and Rex and that should happen before the Government gets involved.


The way I see it Virgin has three very distinct problems.

Problem No. 1 - With the coronavirus having a material effect on the Virgin Australia business, assets such as good will, valuations on aircraft and other assets will probably need to be adjusted in the current financial year. This could erode VA's asset base valuations and result in negative equity.

Problem No. 2 - I'd suggest Virgin Australia has an almost immediate need for cash to shore up its finances so that it can keep paying the bills! I haven't looked at VA's financials, but I'd suggest with the dilution of cash it will be running very close to having more liabilities than assets. Once this happens, it's priority will be to secure employee entitlements (before the business stops paying its bills).

Problem No. 3 - They don't know when the pandemic will end and what the lasting effects on air travel will be! It is going to be very difficult for Virgin Australia to attract new investors when in real terms the company is in uncharted waters. With a considerable amount of Virgin debt associated with leases on aircraft, engines, aircraft spares, etc, the assets that give Virgin Australia value and the ability to earn an income could very well end up flying / being shipped out of the country. If this happens an investor will need considerable amounts of cash to shore up aircraft, engines, spares, etc. VA will probably need to be restructured which will again need a whole lot of cash.

For Virgin Australia and its investors, if they want to keep this airline they will need to buy a fair amount of time. If Virgin Australia is placed into administration in the next month or two, it is unlikely the business would attract an investor. If it can survive for a year (with a government loan), it is more likely a Virgin Australia with a business plan to move forward would be in a better(?) position to attract new investment.

I'd suggest, if the government doesn't agree to a VA loan it will be placed into administration. I can't see a situation where (1) an administrator would keep the business operating as a going concern considering the business has virtually no incomes; and (2) an investor would want to invest in the VA business considering it will most probably have debt in excess of $6 billion by the time some sort of normality returns to air travel.

If Virgin Australia is placed into administration, I'd suggest this will be the end of the airline. The administrators prime responsibility will be maintain as much value as possible, so from this perspective they are not going to keep the airline flying if this results in more debts. For a new investor, the value of Virgin Australia will probably revolve around buying its hard assets at liquidated prices. I can't see a new investor wanting to take on $6 billion in debt. QANTAS at its peak had a market valuation around $6 billion.
 
Ryanair01
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:55 pm

travelhound wrote:
Sydscott wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Borghetti's predecessor Godfrey was also quoted with similar comments in today's (paywalled) Australian article.



Edit: Added Source: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/busine ... om=htc_rss


The other thing about "Public Investment" is that having Virgin go through a re-structure using our existing insolvency system means any Government "loan" would then have a far higher probability of being paid back. That same "Public Investment" could then be made available to Rex and Qantas on similar terms in that the Government is the priority Creditor and takes precedence over all others. Rex would likely also need to go through an insolvency process to achieve that. QF would likely need to negotiate with its existing Lenders to allow for the Government to have a priority.

But at the end of the day our existing insolvency system can deal with both Virgin and Rex and that should happen before the Government gets involved.


The way I see it Virgin has three very distinct problems.

Problem No. 1 - With the coronavirus having a material effect on the Virgin Australia business, assets such as good will, valuations on aircraft and other assets will probably need to be adjusted in the current financial year. This could erode VA's asset base valuations and result in negative equity.

Problem No. 2 - I'd suggest Virgin Australia has an almost immediate need for cash to shore up its finances so that it can keep paying the bills! I haven't looked at VA's financials, but I'd suggest with the dilution of cash it will be running very close to having more liabilities than assets. Once this happens, it's priority will be to secure employee entitlements (before the business stops paying its bills).

Problem No. 3 - They don't know when the pandemic will end and what the lasting effects on air travel will be! It is going to be very difficult for Virgin Australia to attract new investors when in real terms the company is in uncharted waters. With a considerable amount of Virgin debt associated with leases on aircraft, engines, aircraft spares, etc, the assets that give Virgin Australia value and the ability to earn an income could very well end up flying / being shipped out of the country. If this happens an investor will need considerable amounts of cash to shore up aircraft, engines, spares, etc. VA will probably need to be restructured which will again need a whole lot of cash.

For Virgin Australia and its investors, if they want to keep this airline they will need to buy a fair amount of time. If Virgin Australia is placed into administration in the next month or two, it is unlikely the business would attract an investor. If it can survive for a year (with a government loan), it is more likely a Virgin Australia with a business plan to move forward would be in a better(?) position to attract new investment.

I'd suggest, if the government doesn't agree to a VA loan it will be placed into administration. I can't see a situation where (1) an administrator would keep the business operating as a going concern considering the business has virtually no incomes; and (2) an investor would want to invest in the VA business considering it will most probably have debt in excess of $6 billion by the time some sort of normality returns to air travel.

If Virgin Australia is placed into administration, I'd suggest this will be the end of the airline. The administrators prime responsibility will be maintain as much value as possible, so from this perspective they are not going to keep the airline flying if this results in more debts. For a new investor, the value of Virgin Australia will probably revolve around buying its hard assets at liquidated prices. I can't see a new investor wanting to take on $6 billion in debt. QANTAS at its peak had a market valuation around $6 billion.


I think that's a good analysis.

I do wonder about the Swiss International model. When Swissair collapsed in 2002, the Swiss government stepped in and bought control of their regional subsidiary Crossair. Crossair then took some Swissair assets from the administrators (which were essentially worthless post 9/11) and rebranded as Swiss International. I once worked closely with one of the senior execs who led that and it was fascinating to learn about. Essentially, the management team were told by the Swiss government 'you've got 3 years' before we sell or liquidate the business. In the end, the management team negotiated a gradual sale to Lufthansa.

In the case of Virgin Australia, the Federal Government could do the same with VARA. VARA, as I understand it, still have their own AOC and management team from Skywest days. In that scenario:

1. VA goes into administration
2. Government buy VARA, put in seed capital & VARA take some of VA Mainline's assets incl. staff etc - both at a heavily knocked down price (probably nominal)
3. In 3-4 years (or whenever the economy begins to upturn) government to float the business and recover funds

That would probably work out cheapest for the tax payer (less welfare claims and eventual at least part recovery of investment), plus avoids taking on VA's huge debt, it isn't bailing out foreign interests and it avaoids a domestic monopoly.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:57 pm

Very interesting summaries and very well explained, so there is a possibility a new version of VA could be reborn.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 2:59 pm

SQ227 to MEL is being operated by 787-10 instead of the usual 77W
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:28 pm

United also has 2 flights from SFO arriving Sunday into SYD, the second is UA2804

https://www.flightradar24.com/UAL2804/2458c3ba
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xiaotung
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:48 pm

NZ516 wrote:
Very interesting summaries and very well explained, so there is a possibility a new version of VA could be reborn.


Hope whatever happens, the new entity would include Velocity and all our points are safe. Hearing people lose millions of Ansett miles back in the day and never thought this could happen again.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:15 pm

qf789 wrote:
United also has 2 flights from SFO arriving Sunday into SYD, the second is UA2804

https://www.flightradar24.com/UAL2804/2458c3ba


UA operated the extra section 2 or 3 days ago as well. Don't know if pax on board or just cargo.
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:40 pm

xiaotung wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Very interesting summaries and very well explained, so there is a possibility a new version of VA could be reborn.


Hope whatever happens, the new entity would include Velocity and all our points are safe. Hearing people lose millions of Ansett miles back in the day and never thought this could happen again.


Points are least of the worries, what about he 1000s if not 10,000s of people who have now been issue an 12month travel credit? For there VA flight that got canceled because of the COVID-19.

One of the biggest issues to an re-birth will be the 1000s of people who will lose money with the current VA. They are unlikely to want to put money into the new VA.

If anything I could see VA starting an reform of how airlines receive passenger funds in Australia. For example the money goes into an bank controlled trust fund, and airlines only get the funds 48hours before departure.

Does make me wonder how much of the passenger funds (from canceled flights) has already been spent by VA.
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:17 pm

zkncj wrote:
xiaotung wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
Very interesting summaries and very well explained, so there is a possibility a new version of VA could be reborn.


Hope whatever happens, the new entity would include Velocity and all our points are safe. Hearing people lose millions of Ansett miles back in the day and never thought this could happen again.


Points are least of the worries, what about he 1000s if not 10,000s of people who have now been issue an 12month travel credit? For there VA flight that got canceled because of the COVID-19.

One of the biggest issues to an re-birth will be the 1000s of people who will lose money with the current VA. They are unlikely to want to put money into the new VA.

If anything I could see VA starting an reform of how airlines receive passenger funds in Australia. For example the money goes into an bank controlled trust fund, and airlines only get the funds 48hours before departure.

Does make me wonder how much of the passenger funds (from canceled flights) has already been spent by VA.


Not sure if the above plan would work re only receiving funds prior to the flight departure.
All the tickets are going through BSP, so would be subject to those regulations.
Also, would that mean airlines would still be expected to pay any commissions, any backend discounts, etc prior to receiving the funds. That’s a lot of money outgoing before it comes in.
 
travelhound
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 6:18 pm

Ryanair01 wrote:
travelhound wrote:
Sydscott wrote:

The other thing about "Public Investment" is that having Virgin go through a re-structure using our existing insolvency system means any Government "loan" would then have a far higher probability of being paid back. That same "Public Investment" could then be made available to Rex and Qantas on similar terms in that the Government is the priority Creditor and takes precedence over all others. Rex would likely also need to go through an insolvency process to achieve that. QF would likely need to negotiate with its existing Lenders to allow for the Government to have a priority.

But at the end of the day our existing insolvency system can deal with both Virgin and Rex and that should happen before the Government gets involved.


The way I see it Virgin has three very distinct problems.

Problem No. 1 - With the coronavirus having a material effect on the Virgin Australia business, assets such as good will, valuations on aircraft and other assets will probably need to be adjusted in the current financial year. This could erode VA's asset base valuations and result in negative equity.

Problem No. 2 - I'd suggest Virgin Australia has an almost immediate need for cash to shore up its finances so that it can keep paying the bills! I haven't looked at VA's financials, but I'd suggest with the dilution of cash it will be running very close to having more liabilities than assets. Once this happens, it's priority will be to secure employee entitlements (before the business stops paying its bills).

Problem No. 3 - They don't know when the pandemic will end and what the lasting effects on air travel will be! It is going to be very difficult for Virgin Australia to attract new investors when in real terms the company is in uncharted waters. With a considerable amount of Virgin debt associated with leases on aircraft, engines, aircraft spares, etc, the assets that give Virgin Australia value and the ability to earn an income could very well end up flying / being shipped out of the country. If this happens an investor will need considerable amounts of cash to shore up aircraft, engines, spares, etc. VA will probably need to be restructured which will again need a whole lot of cash.

For Virgin Australia and its investors, if they want to keep this airline they will need to buy a fair amount of time. If Virgin Australia is placed into administration in the next month or two, it is unlikely the business would attract an investor. If it can survive for a year (with a government loan), it is more likely a Virgin Australia with a business plan to move forward would be in a better(?) position to attract new investment.

I'd suggest, if the government doesn't agree to a VA loan it will be placed into administration. I can't see a situation where (1) an administrator would keep the business operating as a going concern considering the business has virtually no incomes; and (2) an investor would want to invest in the VA business considering it will most probably have debt in excess of $6 billion by the time some sort of normality returns to air travel.

If Virgin Australia is placed into administration, I'd suggest this will be the end of the airline. The administrators prime responsibility will be maintain as much value as possible, so from this perspective they are not going to keep the airline flying if this results in more debts. For a new investor, the value of Virgin Australia will probably revolve around buying its hard assets at liquidated prices. I can't see a new investor wanting to take on $6 billion in debt. QANTAS at its peak had a market valuation around $6 billion.


I think that's a good analysis.

I do wonder about the Swiss International model. When Swissair collapsed in 2002, the Swiss government stepped in and bought control of their regional subsidiary Crossair. Crossair then took some Swissair assets from the administrators (which were essentially worthless post 9/11) and rebranded as Swiss International. I once worked closely with one of the senior execs who led that and it was fascinating to learn about. Essentially, the management team were told by the Swiss government 'you've got 3 years' before we sell or liquidate the business. In the end, the management team negotiated a gradual sale to Lufthansa.

In the case of Virgin Australia, the Federal Government could do the same with VARA. VARA, as I understand it, still have their own AOC and management team from Skywest days. In that scenario:

1. VA goes into administration
2. Government buy VARA, put in seed capital & VARA take some of VA Mainline's assets incl. staff etc - both at a heavily knocked down price (probably nominal)
3. In 3-4 years (or whenever the economy begins to upturn) government to float the business and recover funds

That would probably work out cheapest for the tax payer (less welfare claims and eventual at least part recovery of investment), plus avoids taking on VA's huge debt, it isn't bailing out foreign interests and it avaoids a domestic monopoly.


Very good point.

My initial thinking revolved around keeping VARA and REX alive to achieve a similar type of outcome.

With this type of scenario you would essentially have two operating entities that could help fill the void of Virgin. From the first instance they would be set-up with a lower cost base (similar to Impulse) with each having access to airport terminal space using a multi-user model (similar to what has been happening in the US).

Thinking about it, Air New Zealand could even be part of a solution.

The advantage of such a model revolves around lower capital costs to enter the market (especially when considered against the alternative of keeping VA alive).

Imagine if an airline decided to use the A220 aircraft. With a lower cost base (than NG 737's), this more agile aircraft with a superior on-board product could be a real disruptor for QANTAS.

Obviously anyone coming in or wanting to expand would need to create a business model to do so. I just think there would be plenty of opportunities for new entrants.

I'd even suggest, if one of the regional airlines stepped in to help fill the void, there could be added economic benefits for regional Australia (i.e. an airline that primarily services regional Australia instead of the major city centres).
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:54 pm

Obzerva wrote:
All the tickets are going through BSP, so would be subject to those regulations.

Could you please explain what BSP is, for those unfamiliar with the term?

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
Kiwiandrew
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:03 pm

VirginFlyer wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
All the tickets are going through BSP, so would be subject to those regulations.

Could you please explain what BSP is, for those unfamiliar with the term?

V/F
Bank Settlement Plan ... it is the central "clearing house" used by IATA airlines for the distribution of ticket revenues/government taxes etc
 
smartplane
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:37 pm

Kiwiandrew wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
Obzerva wrote:
All the tickets are going through BSP, so would be subject to those regulations.

Could you please explain what BSP is, for those unfamiliar with the term?

V/F
Bank Settlement Plan ... it is the central "clearing house" used by IATA airlines for the distribution of ticket revenues/government taxes etc

BSP = IATA Billing & Settlement Plan.

Set up to protect customers and airlines from travel agents not settling with airlines, replacing voluntarily maintained escrow / trust accounts. Not extended to protect customers from airlines, unless the airline is operating as a travel agent, and has joined BSP. Even if they have, can and do opt out for transactions with themselves (why pay IATA a fee to pay themselves?).

Airlines are members of BSP in respect to receipt of funds from third parties, or to third parties, but not when they take bookings directly in their own name. That's why they have all that cash appearing in their accounts in respect to prepaid forward bookings, which is not held in trust or IATA suspense accounts.

BSP and credit cards have never been stress tested in the event of a global aviation recession triggering mass refunds.

Wonder why airlines are publishing future timetables, considered unlikely / unreasonable to occur? Does it mean you can't lodge a refund claim from your agent, airline, disputes tribunal, court or credit card, until past travel date plus a reasonable margin?
 
rukundo
Posts: 234
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:11 pm

BNEFlyer wrote:
rukundo wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Looks like VA9940 BNE-AKL (77W) has been delayed by 11hours, so there often of been an flight if it was on-time.

So Australia longest domes flight today was BNE-NLK-BNE.


Flights Stats shows a delay of 24hrs: https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... FEQ4dUDCAs

Flight Aware shows a delay of 4hrs: https://fr.flightaware.com/live/flight/VHVPD

While on Paris Aeroport, flight from Hong Kong should arrive à 10h00, instead of 7h30 : https://www.parisaeroport.fr/en/passeng ... ris%20(All)&other=HKG&comp=&date=20200412&following=0&schedule=-1&isArrival=True

I m bit confused

Can’t quite understand what zkncj said but it’s delayed until Sunday morning due to a tech issue.


The B777W left BNE few hours ago. On Paris Aeroports the aircaft will arrive at 10h00, on 13 April, iso 12 April . Anyone knows, how many days the aircraft will stay at CDG ? I guess 1 day, too short for my next shift^^

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vh-vpd
 
BNEFlyer
Posts: 245
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 6:41 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 11, 2020 9:47 pm

rukundo wrote:
BNEFlyer wrote:
rukundo wrote:

Flights Stats shows a delay of 24hrs: https://www.google.com/search?client=fi ... FEQ4dUDCAs

Flight Aware shows a delay of 4hrs: https://fr.flightaware.com/live/flight/VHVPD

While on Paris Aeroport, flight from Hong Kong should arrive à 10h00, instead of 7h30 : https://www.parisaeroport.fr/en/passeng ... ris%20(All)&other=HKG&comp=&date=20200412&following=0&schedule=-1&isArrival=True

I m bit confused

Can’t quite understand what zkncj said but it’s delayed until Sunday morning due to a tech issue.


The B777W left BNE few hours ago. On Paris Aeroports the aircaft will arrive at 10h00, on 13 April, iso 12 April . Anyone knows, how many days the aircraft will stay at CDG ? I guess 1 day, too short for my next shift^^

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vh-vpd

Correct, it’s overnighting at CDG.
 
oskarclare
Posts: 163
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:53 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:41 am

VA9015 just departed AKL. Due to arrive HKG at 2200 AEST. 77W VH-VPD operating

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/VOZ9015
 
Flyerqf
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:57 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:00 am

International travel could be closed for the remainder of the calendar year according to the Fed Tourism Minister.

https://www.9news.com.au/videos/health/ ... qt2ftrhgat
Last edited by Flyerqf on Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
cam747
Posts: 68
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 12:25 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:01 am

ArtV wrote:
This talk about appointing an Administrator, and then the process to restructure can be swift, ignores the ability for secured creditors to appoint a Receiver to protect their assets, leaving an empty shell with debt....unless all parties play nice. It gets very complicated, hence the government involvement in some way is preferred to protect a necessary national industry/service.


Thanks for pointing this out, was going to post a similar thing yesterday. Anyone thinking that placing VA into Administration would be a magical way of clearing it its debt obligations, ridding itself of the hodge-podge overseas ownership structure, then restarting afresh with a shiny new "Virgin Blue" low cost-base airline, doesn't really understand the Voluntary Administration process in Australia. It won't happen like that.

The only way VA will be around in a year's time is with Govt intervention. I totally get why people are against that, but be careful what you wish for the current environment. There is no capital around for new entrants to come in, and won't be for some time. A QF domestic monopoly is good for no one, including Qantas.
 
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qf789
Moderator
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:23 am

A few flight movements

United 789 N35953 operating UA2781 operating LAX-SYD, due in SYD around 1700

https://www.flightradar24.com/UAL2781/24592c8f

Lion Air A333 PK-LEH operating repatriation flight from DEL via DPS to MEL, due in MEL around 1515

https://www.flightradar24.com/LNI2841/245988bc

ZNB is operating QF151 MEL-AKL

https://www.flightradar24.com/QFA151/245989f5

Virgin 77W VH-VOZ operating VA 9017 MEL-HKG

https://www.flightradar24.com/VOZ9017/24597bcf
Forum Moderator
 
Aviator34ID
Posts: 69
Joined: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:34 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:24 am

cam747 wrote:
ArtV wrote:
A QF domestic monopoly is good for no one, including Qantas.


But is maintaining the duopoly worth $5 billion of taxpayers' money? ($1.4 b to VA and equivalent treatment to QF).
 
cam747
Posts: 68
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2011 12:25 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:32 am

Aviator34ID wrote:
cam747 wrote:
ArtV wrote:
A QF domestic monopoly is good for no one, including Qantas.


But is maintaining the duopoly worth $5 billion of taxpayers' money? ($1.4 b to VA and equivalent treatment to QF).


I don't know. We'll find out eventually, whichever way it goes.
 
dredgy
Posts: 488
Joined: Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:13 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 2:51 am

Aviator34ID wrote:
cam747 wrote:
ArtV wrote:
A QF domestic monopoly is good for no one, including Qantas.


But is maintaining the duopoly worth $5 billion of taxpayers' money? ($1.4 b to VA and equivalent treatment to QF).


Could be. Could not be, but most maths says it absolutely would be as both Virgin and Qantas typically have good revenues, and cashflow management, so a return to even reduced normal operations would likely see a loan repaid. Virgin not operating could have massive knock on effects that cost a lot more than $5bn. Its relatively cheap stimulus. Especially since it would likely be structured in such a way that the government makes its money back, so it wouldn’t actually cost taxpayers anything.

We’re in a depression, so it’s important to stop it getting worse, and to get things back to normal as quickly as possible. Having one domestic carrier and the reduced capacity, reduced jobs and higher fares that would result would hamper economic recovery.

Administration would be death in this climate, and unlike the Ansett collapse, the reason airlines are in this position is because of the government effectively banning travel - there’s not much airlines can do about that. No recession or depression would otherwise see air travel demand this low.
 
travelhound
Posts: 2008
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:12 am

cam747 wrote:
Aviator34ID wrote:
cam747 wrote:


But is maintaining the duopoly worth $5 billion of taxpayers' money? ($1.4 b to VA and equivalent treatment to QF).


I don't know. We'll find out eventually, whichever way it goes.


You are talking about an intervenes strategy. I'd suggest such a scenario could distort the market to a degree where even QANTAS would be put at risk.

For those thinking QANTAS would take advantage of the market, the reality of the situation revolves around both airlines could loose up to $5-6 billion this year. For a healthy airline industry to survive, both airlines would need to recoup this money over the short term.

On current free cash flows, QANTAS could recoup the money over a 4-6 year period. For VA, they would need a longer amount of time.

Where some are arguing Australia needs two airlines, others (myself) argue the demise of VA could allow the industry to be restructured making it easier for new players to enter the market. I think we have to remember (limited) access to airport infrastructure is a major deterrent for airlines wanting to set-up in Australia.

As such, on face value I would like to see market forces ultimately dictate who survives, but with the caveat this a good opportunity to adjust government aviation policy to make the market more accessible to new players.

Don't ever let a catastrophe go to waste.
 
travelhound
Posts: 2008
Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:17 am

cam747 wrote:

I don't know. We'll find out eventually, whichever way it goes.


You are talking about an intervenes strategy. I'd suggest such a scenario could distort the market to a degree where even QANTAS would be put at risk.

For those thinking QANTAS would take advantage of the market, the reality of the situation revolves around both airlines could loose up to $5-6 billion this year. For a healthy airline industry to survive, both airlines would need to recoup this money over the short term.

On current free cash flows, QANTAS could recoup the money over a 4-6 year period. For VA, they would need a longer amount of time.

Where some are arguing Australia needs two airlines, others (myself) argue the demise of VA could allow the industry to be restructured making it easier for new players to enter the market. I think we have to remember (limited) access to airport infrastructure is a major deterrent for airlines wanting to set-up in Australia.

As such, on face value I would like to see market forces ultimately dictate who survives, but with the caveat this a good opportunity to adjust government aviation policy to make the market more accessible to new players.

Freeing up VA's terminals for use as a multi-user model would probably be one of the best aviation policy objectives we have seen in a couple of decades.

Don't ever let a catastrophe go to waste.
 
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EK413
Posts: 5526
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Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:44 am

Qantas VH-ZNI has departed Sydney to Lima, Peru operating repatriation flight bringing back stranded passengers.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.sbs ... d6%3famp=1

Flight QF7027 from Sydney to Lima
https://fr24.com/QFA7027/2459965c


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
soyuz
Posts: 69
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 9:35 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:17 am

qf789 wrote:
waoz1 wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Emirates schedule is ambitious to say the least.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It was identified by WA government this week that there were not enough flights for our exports and getting in imports
So i suggest most of these will be carrying cargo more than passengers


Hence why they should be using the 77W over the A388


This begs the question: How much cargo (tonnage and volumetric) can an A380 with no passengers carry in its belly on a sector such as BNE-DXB compared to an equally empty 77W? And how much fuel would either use? Naturally the Boeing would have an advantage but I would be interested to hear from anyone who has crunched the numbers.
 
Flyerqf
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:57 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 5:47 am

If VA collapses, QF would need to pick up the Domestic capacity. Maybe not 1 for 1 given some time will be required for capacity requirements to rebuild to pre Covid levels. However given QF are also suffering from Covid, would they be financially able to buy more aircraft?
 
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qf789
Moderator
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:17 am

ZNE is operating QF9 MEL-PER-LHR

https://www.flightradar24.com/QFA9/2459ad00
Forum Moderator
 
User avatar
Chipmunk1973
Posts: 255
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 6:57 am

Flyerqf wrote:
If VA collapses, QF would need to pick up the Domestic capacity. Maybe not 1 for 1 given some time will be required for capacity requirements to rebuild to pre Covid levels. However given QF are also suffering from Covid, would they be financially able to buy more aircraft?


I’m not an aviation industry analyst or have any insights into the industry (not for a long time). But IF VA were to collapse then I would surmise that QF could offer an administrator a competitive deal to acquire 10-15 737-800’s in lieu of purchasing from a lessor.

But given that the Aus Government are keen for two major airlines in the country, I believe that QF would limit their expansion knowing that another competitor will resurface, whether that be Virgin MK II or another brand, and will avoid perceived anti-competitive behaviour from the ACCC.

Just my thoughts.
Cheers,
C1973
 
User avatar
Chipmunk1973
Posts: 255
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:08 am

soyuz wrote:
qf789 wrote:
waoz1 wrote:

It was identified by WA government this week that there were not enough flights for our exports and getting in imports
So i suggest most of these will be carrying cargo more than passengers


Hence why they should be using the 77W over the A388


This begs the question: How much cargo (tonnage and volumetric) can an A380 with no passengers carry in its belly on a sector such as BNE-DXB compared to an equally empty 77W? And how much fuel would either use? Naturally the Boeing would have an advantage but I would be interested to hear from anyone who has crunched the numbers.



I’m not sure how to process the numbers, but while the A380 has the volumetric efficiency, overall, I’d think it to be less efficient than a 77W. I saw pictures several days ago of an airline loading bags into passenger seats to transfer freight. Whilst the concept is good, you still require a lot of physical workers to load/empty a ~500 seat plane. And that’s not taking into consideration what’s in the cargo hold.

I read earlier today in another thread, that Air Canada we’re removing the W and Y seats from a few 777s, to accommodate freight. Seems like a more practicable solution than an A380.
Cheers,
C1973
 
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EK413
Posts: 5526
Joined: Sat Nov 29, 2003 3:11 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:14 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
soyuz wrote:
qf789 wrote:

Hence why they should be using the 77W over the A388


This begs the question: How much cargo (tonnage and volumetric) can an A380 with no passengers carry in its belly on a sector such as BNE-DXB compared to an equally empty 77W? And how much fuel would either use? Naturally the Boeing would have an advantage but I would be interested to hear from anyone who has crunched the numbers.



I’m not sure how to process the numbers, but while the A380 has the volumetric efficiency, overall, I’d think it to be less efficient than a 77W. I saw pictures several days ago of an airline loading bags into passenger seats to transfer freight. Whilst the concept is good, you still require a lot of physical workers to load/empty a ~500 seat plane. And that’s not taking into consideration what’s in the cargo hold.

I read earlier today in another thread, that Air Canada we’re removing the W and Y seats from a few 777s, to accommodate freight. Seems like a more practicable solution than an A380.

AC are converting 3 x B77W’s into quick-change freighters removing 422 of 450 seats (Economy and Premium Economy). The reconfigured 77W’s can now carry 89 tonnes of freight, or the equivalent space of 9 million medical masks.

Image

https://www.instagram.com/p/B-2Q0BcDgOM ... ly94zsuhil


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
User avatar
Chipmunk1973
Posts: 255
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:18 am

EK413 wrote:
AC are converting 3 x B77W’s into quick-change freighters removing 422 of 450 seats (Economy and Premium Economy). The reconfigured 77W’s can now carry 89 tonnes of freight, or the equivalent space of 9 million medical masks.

Image

https://www.instagram.com/p/B-2Q0BcDgOM ... ly94zsuhil


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



That’s the one, thank you!
Cheers,
C1973
 
zkncj
Posts: 3803
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 7:37 am

EK413 wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
soyuz wrote:

This begs the question: How much cargo (tonnage and volumetric) can an A380 with no passengers carry in its belly on a sector such as BNE-DXB compared to an equally empty 77W? And how much fuel would either use? Naturally the Boeing would have an advantage but I would be interested to hear from anyone who has crunched the numbers.



I’m not sure how to process the numbers, but while the A380 has the volumetric efficiency, overall, I’d think it to be less efficient than a 77W. I saw pictures several days ago of an airline loading bags into passenger seats to transfer freight. Whilst the concept is good, you still require a lot of physical workers to load/empty a ~500 seat plane. And that’s not taking into consideration what’s in the cargo hold.

I read earlier today in another thread, that Air Canada we’re removing the W and Y seats from a few 777s, to accommodate freight. Seems like a more practicable solution than an A380.

AC are converting 3 x B77W’s into quick-change freighters removing 422 of 450 seats (Economy and Premium Economy). The reconfigured 77W’s can now carry 89 tonnes of freight, or the equivalent space of 9 million medical masks.

Image

https://www.instagram.com/p/B-2Q0BcDgOM ... ly94zsuhil


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


NZ is looking at going the same with there 77E's at this stage - surely QF/VA will follow suit soon.
 
TN486T
Posts: 71
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:18 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:42 am

http://theqantassource.com/

QF 9 appears to be a repat flight.
 
zkncj
Posts: 3803
Joined: Wed Nov 09, 2005 4:57 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 9:46 am

Looks like some moment with the QLink fleet tonight, with VH-LQF and VH-TQH both in enroute ex-BNE heading towards SYD.
 
Ryanair01
Posts: 486
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2013 9:27 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:56 am

cam747 wrote:
ArtV wrote:
This talk about appointing an Administrator, and then the process to restructure can be swift, ignores the ability for secured creditors to appoint a Receiver to protect their assets, leaving an empty shell with debt....unless all parties play nice. It gets very complicated, hence the government involvement in some way is preferred to protect a necessary national industry/service.


Thanks for pointing this out, was going to post a similar thing yesterday. Anyone thinking that placing VA into Administration would be a magical way of clearing it its debt obligations, ridding itself of the hodge-podge overseas ownership structure, then restarting afresh with a shiny new "Virgin Blue" low cost-base airline, doesn't really understand the Voluntary Administration process in Australia. It won't happen like that.

The only way VA will be around in a year's time is with Govt intervention. I totally get why people are against that, but be careful what you wish for the current environment. There is no capital around for new entrants to come in, and won't be for some time. A QF domestic monopoly is good for no one, including Qantas.


Yes and no. Do you know how both VARA and REX came to exist? Both were subsidiaries of Ansett and went through administration but survived as separate legal entities under different ownership.

Secured creditors absolutely can intervene. Just remember two points.

Firstly, the assets are worthless, for example, no one is going to lease or buy a 737-800. Demand for parts is down because the global fleet is essentially grounded so even scrapping isn't viable.

Secondly, it is in the administrator's interests to shift leases to another entity, as it reduces the overall damages claims which arise when the administrator inevitably breaks them. About half of VA's fleet is leased.

Regarding VARA, there is probably debt secured on that business. However, because it has a cash flow from mining contracts and it is a separate legal entity then it is in a slightly different boat to VA. If the government want to, as a bridge, take VARA ownership and some VA leases (into VARA) to seed a second carrier, there is no way any other alternative deal would give a better debt recovery for secured creditors. Longer term the government, exactly as was the case with Skywest and REX, would sell to a larger entity.

Under Australian law, there is a vast difference between VA emerging from administration and seed funding turning VARA (Skywest) into a mainline carrier under completely different ownership. This model (less the mainline element) is how come both VARA and Rex exist today, both were part of Ansett.

However, in today's climate government intervention is needed as there is no capital for airlines.

I can promise everyone that advisories are whispering that into the pollie's ears and a few other interests too. I don't think the WA resources sector is too keen on being held hostage by Qantas.
 
moa999
Posts: 923
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:43 pm

The WA resources sector could buy VARA if they wanted.
Reality is the current commercial demand for Aus aircraft is SFA, which is why both QF and VA are hardly operating any aircraft without subsidy.

If either survives it will be a slow recovery i suspect. This is way worse than 9/11 which buried Ansett (and as I understand would have buried Virgin Blue had not Ansett announced first)
 
User avatar
CraigAnderson
Posts: 537
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:28 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:18 pm

Australians will have to wait until the end of this year or beyond to restart overseas travel

Australians will have to wait until the end of this year or beyond to restart overseas travel amid estimates the coronavirus crisis has wiped out inbound and domestic tourism worth $9 billion a month.
Travel restrictions could be eased within states if efforts to slow the spread of the virus succeed in the months ahead, but travel across state borders and outside Australia will face tough bans for the longer term.


If there's going to be no overseas travel until next year, that's got to be a killer blow for Virgin without a government bailout, and will Qantas have the money for its Sunrise A350s or will it even see the demand for Sunrise flights just a few years away?

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 54iw4.html
 
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CraigAnderson
Posts: 537
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 12:28 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:23 pm

Just thinking about Sunrise flights, Joyce previously said that PER-LHR and SYD-SIN-LHR, which is also fed by MEL-SIN and BNE-SIN, would run alongside the SYD-LHR and MEL-LHR non-stop flights. I really don't know if there will be enough demand for that now, given forecasts on how long it will take for demand to resume and get back to 2019 levels.

Apparently MEL-PER-LHR is actually very good on its own and on the back of PER, most east coast passengers still go via SIN. But if the demand simply isn't there for all three routes, would you axe MEL-PER-LHR or drop SIN-LHR?

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