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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:16 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Just needing clarification here, they haven't actually collapsed right? There's still a chance for a buyer to save them?

Definitely. It remains highly likely that it will re-emerge from administration though it will be smaller operation.


So just 738s for domestic ops and maybe the 777s for BNE/SYD-LAX?


Some of the Equity Investors proposals reported in the media (News Corp, AFR, etc) has "left the door" open for keeping the x4 777-300ERs for BNE/SYD-LAX. Those proposals concentrate on a 2-class primarily Domestic Operation (assumably using the VAi AOC instead - which has the 777-300ER and 737-800 on that AOC).

LAX would be VA's "only" international destination under those proposals
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:28 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Just needing clarification here, they haven't actually collapsed right? There's still a chance for a buyer to save them?

Definitely. It remains highly likely that it will re-emerge from administration though it will be smaller operation.


So just 738s for domestic ops and maybe the 777s for BNE/SYD-LAX?

No one really knows but that is one speculated outcome.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:40 am

SCFlyer wrote:
Some of the Equity Investors proposals reported in the media (News Corp, AFR, etc) has "left the door" open for keeping the x4 777-300ERs for BNE/SYD-LAX. Those proposals concentrate on a 2-class primarily Domestic Operation (assumably using the VAi AOC instead - which has the 777-300ER and 737-800 on that AOC).

LAX would be VA's "only" international destination under those proposals


My surmise from that info’ is that they will want to maintain lounges where they have and still offer a “corporate” alternative to QF. Perhaps Velocity is the saviour here.
Cheers,
C1973


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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:52 am

In some ways the Velocity program is going to drive what happens. Given that this is of substantial value in the group, it is going to want to be preserved and recovered. But the thing that gives it value is a running airline where points can be redeemed. Without that, points holders see substantially less value in a points program.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:54 am

Announced a couple minutes ago on ABC24 News that Deloitte have been appointed administrators for VA.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:55 am

What happens now to the ~60 flights they were doing per week for the government, as well as the FIFO flights in WA ?
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:57 am

brucetiki wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
I would like to publicly acknowledge the 10000 people who are going to have an absolute shattering day tomorrow. All of them, from the CEO to Flight Crew to the Maintenance to HR will be going through possibly the worst days of their live and probably much worse than many ever experience. It is a shattering thought.

I know we all like to engage in rumours/speculation/arm chair CEOing, including me, whilst this is not wrong and usually in good faith, I just wanted to send my prayers and thoughts to all VA staff and in particular those on this forum.


I second this - for some it's not the first time they've gone through this either.


Mate of mine is a VA pilot who was an AN pilot. I'm confident some form of Virgin will emerge from this. This is a very different scenario than Ansett was.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:08 am

PJ01 wrote:
Announced a couple minutes ago on ABC24 News that Deloitte have been appointed administrators for VA.


This is the second post on here that says it has been confirmed when it has not been. No news source is saying VA has appointed administrators. It is likely yes, but let’s be patient.

edit: grammar.
Last edited by NZ801 on Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:09 am

PlutekPlutek wrote:
What happens now to the ~60 flights they were doing per week for the government, as well as the FIFO flights in WA ?

Administration means the business can continue so it is possible these flights will continue unchanged. An administrator who shuts things down too early risks claims that they failed to preserve value and creditors may take action against them.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:19 am

PlutekPlutek wrote:
What happens now to the ~60 flights they were doing per week for the government, as well as the FIFO flights in WA ?


They will have to just go with whatever the market offers and possibly whatever the market charges. Our government is a champion of free market ideas, so this is just an extension of that.

It's terrible for the staff at the airline what might happen. :(
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:21 am

PJ01 wrote:
Announced a couple minutes ago on ABC24 News that Deloitte have been appointed administrators for VA.

The Australian also reported the same

Michael
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:26 am

PJ01 wrote:
Announced a couple minutes ago on ABC24 News that Deloitte have been appointed administrators for VA.


Oddly they are still happy to take your money online, surely every there ability to accept new bookings should be on holt?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:27 am

zkncj wrote:
PJ01 wrote:
Announced a couple minutes ago on ABC24 News that Deloitte have been appointed administrators for VA.


Oddly they are still happy to take your money online, surely every there ability to accept new bookings should be on holt?


Which makes me think it hasn’t been confirmed yet.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:04 am

It’s on 9 news now. They’ll announce voluntary administration tomorrow.

Australian said the board met today.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:15 am

zkncj wrote:
PJ01 wrote:
Announced a couple minutes ago on ABC24 News that Deloitte have been appointed administrators for VA.


Oddly they are still happy to take your money online, surely every there ability to accept new bookings should be on holt?

It is very safe to book whilst under administration. Administrators are liable for debts incurred during this period.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:38 am

Executive Traveller Article:
https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... nistration

The government funded "limited domestic network" VA is operating is expected to continue whilst VA calls in Administrators from tommorow. Not sure what will happen to the VARA network, though.

It’s expected that Virgin Australia flights would continue as scheduled while any administration process is underway.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:54 am

I have heard reporting that Joyce and his senior staff are having celebratory drinks tonight......

EDIT: This appears to be of been figurative speech
Last edited by Morrofinch on Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:58 am

Morrofinch wrote:
News Corp is reporting that Joyce and his senior staff are having celebratory drinks tonight......

Very distasteful if true.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:00 am

Morrofinch wrote:
News Corp is reporting that Joyce and his senior staff are having celebratory drinks tonight......


I highy doubt they are. Even though they are potent rivals, Alan Joyce and the Qantas leadership take no joy out of the fact that nearly 10 thousand people have potentially lost their jobs! Remember there are a number of Qantas staff are in fact ex-Ansett so are well aware of the uncertainty that is going on right now.

Everyone at Qantas will be thinking of their Virgin cousins with heavy hearts tonight, no one takes joy out if this no one! :crying: :crying:
Last edited by a36001 on Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:06 am

Morrofinch, do you have a confirmed source re your post 815?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:06 am

Morrofinch wrote:
News Corp is reporting that Joyce and his senior staff are having celebratory drinks tonight......


I call BS from either you or the TWU. Not sure in a social distancing world this would be possible. Doesn't seem to be an article on news.com.au.

Morrofinch wrote:
https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1444889

I made a new thread as a way to declutter this thread epically given this is one huge issue. I hope mods are fine with that.

A more accurate thread title would have been "Virgin Australia to enter Voluntary Administration" with a link to a news article in the post.
Last edited by getluv on Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:10 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:08 am

rtav wrote:
timtam wrote:
rtav wrote:
Image

This photo was taken by a Perth spotter today (Brenden Scott), no one over here can work out what aircraft this is or where its headed.
Maybe some bright minds here can work it out!
It was reportedly flying over Perth today at 1300AWST flying from West to East (Eastbound).
It has a very close resemblance to a West Jet 787.


Looks like a West Jet 787 - you can almost make out the numbering on the left wing which is consistent with a WestJet 787.

Without being an expert, it looks like the 787 wing profile.


Problem with is, is all 5 WestJet B789’s are supposedly in Canada and nowhere near Australia according to Flightaware


One is in storage and the other 4 just shuttle between Toronto and Calgary every few days- plenty of dead time in between, but no idea where it was coming from, going to, and why tracking was turned off.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:12 am

TN486T wrote:
Morrofinch, do you have a confirmed source re your post 815?


Anecdotally was mentioned by some News Corp (I think News Corp) journo on the radio. May of meant it figuratively or literally.
Last edited by Morrofinch on Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:23 am

tullamarine wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
ben175 wrote:
Surely this warrants its own thread now? A devastating day for Australian aviation that shouldn’t be lost in the archives.



Just needing clarification here, they haven't actually collapsed right? There's still a chance for a buyer to save them?

Definitely. It remains highly likely that it will re-emerge from administration though it will be smaller operation.


In addition, Voluntary Administration isn't always a death knell, but is certainly a better option than a creditor/court appointed Receivership. I've seen voluntary administration used in the mining industry successfully (and expensively) to hold back creditors, whilst the Directors recapitalise. Although I concede it looks fairly morbid at the moment, this could also be a useful tool to buy Directors some additional time to sort out a new recapitalisation, whilst at the same time legally holding back creditors and lessors.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:26 am

Does anyone know who major VA bond holders are? They very may well decide its fate.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:42 am

QF64 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Ishrion wrote:


Just needing clarification here, they haven't actually collapsed right? There's still a chance for a buyer to save them?

Definitely. It remains highly likely that it will re-emerge from administration though it will be smaller operation.


In addition, Voluntary Administration isn't always a death knell, but is certainly a better option than a creditor/court appointed Receivership. I've seen voluntary administration used in the mining industry successfully (and expensively) to hold back creditors, whilst the Directors recapitalise. Although I concede it looks fairly morbid at the moment, this could also be a useful tool to buy Directors some additional time to sort out a new recapitalisation, whilst at the same time legally holding back creditors and lessors.


I think you're quite optimistic.

One in 4 companies in voluntary administration survive. VA has $5 Billion in debt. Most of its viable assets can probably currently be found on sale. Its lucrative SYD slots will be put back into a pool for another airline to come and use at their disposable.

Even Velocity will struggle to survive.

In the event VA is around, it will be a shadow of its former self.
I'm that bad type.
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:51 am

getluv wrote:
QF64 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
Definitely. It remains highly likely that it will re-emerge from administration though it will be smaller operation.


In addition, Voluntary Administration isn't always a death knell, but is certainly a better option than a creditor/court appointed Receivership. I've seen voluntary administration used in the mining industry successfully (and expensively) to hold back creditors, whilst the Directors recapitalise. Although I concede it looks fairly morbid at the moment, this could also be a useful tool to buy Directors some additional time to sort out a new recapitalisation, whilst at the same time legally holding back creditors and lessors.


I think you're quite optimistic.

One in 4 companies in voluntary administration survive. VA has $5 Billion in debt. Most of its viable assets can probably currently be found on sale. Its lucrative SYD slots will be put back into a pool for another airline to come and use at their disposable.

Even Velocity will struggle to survive.

In the event VA is around, it will be a shadow of its former self.


Well I mean the last big company to go into administration was Channel 10. They returned stronger. All it takes is one keen buyer and because Aus has such a lucrative domestic market in terms of monetary value and feeder value, I think VA very well may get a cashed up owner who takes it to QANTAS
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:54 am

Morrofinch wrote:
getluv wrote:
QF64 wrote:

In addition, Voluntary Administration isn't always a death knell, but is certainly a better option than a creditor/court appointed Receivership. I've seen voluntary administration used in the mining industry successfully (and expensively) to hold back creditors, whilst the Directors recapitalise. Although I concede it looks fairly morbid at the moment, this could also be a useful tool to buy Directors some additional time to sort out a new recapitalisation, whilst at the same time legally holding back creditors and lessors.


I think you're quite optimistic.

One in 4 companies in voluntary administration survive. VA has $5 Billion in debt. Most of its viable assets can probably currently be found on sale. Its lucrative SYD slots will be put back into a pool for another airline to come and use at their disposable.

Even Velocity will struggle to survive.

In the event VA is around, it will be a shadow of its former self.


Well I mean the last big company to go into administration was Channel 10. They returned stronger. All it takes is one keen buyer and because Aus has such a lucrative domestic market in terms of monetary value and feeder value, I think VA very well may get a cashed up owner who takes it to QANTAS


Not really sure if that's true or if we'll be able to tell 10 is making a profit for ViacomCBS.

Nevertheless, VA already has five cashed up indirect owners. Two of them with strategic reasons to still want to be involve, but even they don't want to stay on.
Last edited by getluv on Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:59 am

getluv wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
getluv wrote:

I think you're quite optimistic.

One in 4 companies in voluntary administration survive. VA has $5 Billion in debt. Most of its viable assets can probably currently be found on sale. Its lucrative SYD slots will be put back into a pool for another airline to come and use at their disposable.

Even Velocity will struggle to survive.

In the event VA is around, it will be a shadow of its former self.


Well I mean the last big company to go into administration was Channel 10. They returned stronger. All it takes is one keen buyer and because Aus has such a lucrative domestic market in terms of monetary value and feeder value, I think VA very well may get a cashed up owner who takes it to QANTAS


VA already has five indirectly cashed up owners.


Thats is part of the issue. Five owners. Five owners is just too many to be an incentive to any of them to really put in the cash. The gains are so minimal and you are sharing the feed. Plus let's be real here, the owners are competitors. With an ownership like that, it could be argued VA was doomed from the second they get this complex ownership structure
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:02 pm

getluv wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
getluv wrote:

I think you're quite optimistic.

One in 4 companies in voluntary administration survive. VA has $5 Billion in debt. Most of its viable assets can probably currently be found on sale. Its lucrative SYD slots will be put back into a pool for another airline to come and use at their disposable.

Even Velocity will struggle to survive.

In the event VA is around, it will be a shadow of its former self.


Well I mean the last big company to go into administration was Channel 10. They returned stronger. All it takes is one keen buyer and because Aus has such a lucrative domestic market in terms of monetary value and feeder value, I think VA very well may get a cashed up owner who takes it to QANTAS


Not really sure if that's true or if we'll be able to tell 10 is making a profit for ViacomCBS.

Nevertheless, VA already has five cashed up indirect owners. Two of them with strategic reasons to still want to be involve, but even they don't want to stay on.


The ol 'SQ' fake news chestnut that's been ongoing for the past 5 years. The other I'm assuming Virgin Group/Branson but isn't contributing for numerous (and 'arguably' selfish reasons)
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:04 pm

The problem was giving them a seat at the board table not because they had a substantial holding. Consequently you had an airline with no strategic direction.
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Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:06 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
getluv wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:

Well I mean the last big company to go into administration was Channel 10. They returned stronger. All it takes is one keen buyer and because Aus has such a lucrative domestic market in terms of monetary value and feeder value, I think VA very well may get a cashed up owner who takes it to QANTAS


Not really sure if that's true or if we'll be able to tell 10 is making a profit for ViacomCBS.

Nevertheless, VA already has five cashed up indirect owners. Two of them with strategic reasons to still want to be involve, but even they don't want to stay on.


The ol 'SQ' fake news chestnut that's been ongoing for the past 5 years. The other I'm assuming Virgin Group/Branson but isn't contributing for numerous (and 'arguably' selfish reasons)


SQ has basically said no to taking over VA. There are some rumours I have heard they may chase TT AOC to open Scoot Australia but thats another story. A lot of other airlines, notably QR NH MU, at a full takeover once they get rid of debts (well apparently before for MU)

As I keep saying, it just takes one airline (or maybe an airline and an investment firm.) There is a reason why we always seems to have a second airline owned by foreign airlines here. I can only hope it is done properly this time
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:07 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
getluv wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:

Well I mean the last big company to go into administration was Channel 10. They returned stronger. All it takes is one keen buyer and because Aus has such a lucrative domestic market in terms of monetary value and feeder value, I think VA very well may get a cashed up owner who takes it to QANTAS


Not really sure if that's true or if we'll be able to tell 10 is making a profit for ViacomCBS.

Nevertheless, VA already has five cashed up indirect owners. Two of them with strategic reasons to still want to be involve, but even they don't want to stay on.


The ol 'SQ' fake news chestnut that's been ongoing for the past 5 years. The other I'm assuming Virgin Group/Branson but isn't contributing for numerous (and 'arguably' selfish reasons)


I don't think SQ has wanted to put more money into VA for quite sometime. Neither has EY.

However, SQ still have someone on the board yet either couldn't or didn't want to give any of the $18 billion they have just received to prop up VA all for themselves.
I'm that bad type.
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:10 pm

getluv wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
getluv wrote:

Not really sure if that's true or if we'll be able to tell 10 is making a profit for ViacomCBS.

Nevertheless, VA already has five cashed up indirect owners. Two of them with strategic reasons to still want to be involve, but even they don't want to stay on.


The ol 'SQ' fake news chestnut that's been ongoing for the past 5 years. The other I'm assuming Virgin Group/Branson but isn't contributing for numerous (and 'arguably' selfish reasons)


It's ongoing because its true. They even have someone on the board. SQ has just been giving $18 billion and they didn't give a dime to Virgin.


I think most shareholders wrote off VA a while back. VA was just serving to many masters and ultimately that made a situation where it every purpose but at the same time no purpose
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:12 pm

getluv wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
getluv wrote:

Not really sure if that's true or if we'll be able to tell 10 is making a profit for ViacomCBS.

Nevertheless, VA already has five cashed up indirect owners. Two of them with strategic reasons to still want to be involve, but even they don't want to stay on.


The ol 'SQ' fake news chestnut that's been ongoing for the past 5 years. The other I'm assuming Virgin Group/Branson but isn't contributing for numerous (and 'arguably' selfish reasons)


I don't think SQ has ever wanted to put more money into VA.

However, they still have someone on the board yet either couldn't or didn't want to give any of the $18 billion they have just received to prop up VA all for themselves.


SQ's government funded bailout money is likely to mainly used on their own survival. They won't have the money to pony up even if they (didn't) want to.

I'd say the fact they didn't want to says it all. They're busy trying to survive themselves, and that's including their 49% Indian Vistara JV.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:14 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
getluv wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:

The ol 'SQ' fake news chestnut that's been ongoing for the past 5 years. The other I'm assuming Virgin Group/Branson but isn't contributing for numerous (and 'arguably' selfish reasons)


I don't think SQ has ever wanted to put more money into VA.

However, they still have someone on the board yet either couldn't or didn't want to give any of the $18 billion they have just received to prop up VA all for themselves.


SQ's government funded bailout money is likely to mainly used on their own survival. They won't have the money to pony up even if they (didn't) want to.

I'd say the fact they didn't want to says it all. They're busy trying to survive themselves, and that's including their 49% Indian Vistara JV.


Part of SQ interest in VA was the frequent flyer base. I also think the fact that they don't want a part of it says it all.

I also think any optimistic vision of VA coming back after Administration is also misguided.
I'm that bad type.
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:20 pm

I think one thing that is a genuine shame is that Scurrah never will get to turn his vision into a reality. I feel like if he was given time then he probably would have turned VA into a profitable airline. He knew VA had some strong areas and some weak areas and he seemed like he really was going to run the airline well.

JB did do a good thing for VA but he probably stayed on for one or two years too long. I think one of the saddest things of all of this (obviously other than job losses etc) is the capital and time invested into VA to make it into what it is today. It never really will get its chance for the second stage of its rebirth (the stage where profits were probably gonna start coming)

Feels like a decade of laying the foundations all but went to waste.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:40 pm

Morrofinch wrote:
JB did do a good thing for VA but he probably stayed on for one or two years too long. I think one of the saddest things of all of this (obviously other than job losses etc) is the capital and time invested into VA to make it into what it is today. It never really will get its chance for the second stage of its rebirth (the stage where profits were probably gonna start coming)

The rebirth was stillborn. After pouring all this money (sugardaddy funded) into becoming an upmarket carrier, they still didn't manage to charge more than QF- it was a stupid strategy that the board should have stopped, but rather than recognise their own failures continued to let it roll.
Nobody is going to take on $5B of debt.
Maybe we'll finally hear Luxon's account of what happened.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:45 pm

Morrofinch wrote:
I think one thing that is a genuine shame is that Scurrah never will get to turn his vision into a reality. I feel like if he was given time then he probably would have turned VA into a profitable airline. He knew VA had some strong areas and some weak areas and he seemed like he really was going to run the airline well.

JB did do a good thing for VA but he probably stayed on for one or two years too long. I think one of the saddest things of all of this (obviously other than job losses etc) is the capital and time invested into VA to make it into what it is today. It never really will get its chance for the second stage of its rebirth (the stage where profits were probably gonna start coming)

Feels like a decade of laying the foundations all but went to waste.

JB did a good job?!? You hiding under a rock? Thanks to JB and his ego VA are heading into voluntary administration! JB too busy chasing a dream turning VA into QF Lite opposed to running VA as profitable well run airline.


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Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:47 pm

eta unknown wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
JB did do a good thing for VA but he probably stayed on for one or two years too long. I think one of the saddest things of all of this (obviously other than job losses etc) is the capital and time invested into VA to make it into what it is today. It never really will get its chance for the second stage of its rebirth (the stage where profits were probably gonna start coming)

The rebirth was stillborn. After pouring all this money (sugardaddy funded) into becoming an upmarket carrier, they still didn't manage to charge more than QF- it was a stupid strategy that the board should have stopped, but rather than recognise their own failures continued to let it roll.
Nobody is going to take on $5B of debt.
Maybe we'll finally hear Luxon's account of what happened.


EK413 wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
I think one thing that is a genuine shame is that Scurrah never will get to turn his vision into a reality. I feel like if he was given time then he probably would have turned VA into a profitable airline. He knew VA had some strong areas and some weak areas and he seemed like he really was going to run the airline well.

JB did do a good thing for VA but he probably stayed on for one or two years too long. I think one of the saddest things of all of this (obviously other than job losses etc) is the capital and time invested into VA to make it into what it is today. It never really will get its chance for the second stage of its rebirth (the stage where profits were probably gonna start coming)

Feels like a decade of laying the foundations all but went to waste.

JB did a good job?!? You hiding under a rock? Thanks to JB and his ego VA are heading into voluntary administration! JB too busy chasing a dream turning VA into QF Lite opposed to running VA as profitable well run airline.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


The strategy was long term. It wasn't about making profits straight away. It was a transformation which in my view was successful. The profit was going to come until COVID-19 came.

Luxon wanted to sacrifice long-term for short-term. Of course, knowing what we know now VA should have done that but thats not a fair lens to look at it.

JB had an ambitious vision which over the course of the 2010's decade was met with action. I think we all don't realise the enormous change he did in such a short period whist fighting a strong QANTAS.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:56 pm

Morrofinch wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
JB did do a good thing for VA but he probably stayed on for one or two years too long. I think one of the saddest things of all of this (obviously other than job losses etc) is the capital and time invested into VA to make it into what it is today. It never really will get its chance for the second stage of its rebirth (the stage where profits were probably gonna start coming)

The rebirth was stillborn. After pouring all this money (sugardaddy funded) into becoming an upmarket carrier, they still didn't manage to charge more than QF- it was a stupid strategy that the board should have stopped, but rather than recognise their own failures continued to let it roll.
Nobody is going to take on $5B of debt.
Maybe we'll finally hear Luxon's account of what happened.


EK413 wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
I think one thing that is a genuine shame is that Scurrah never will get to turn his vision into a reality. I feel like if he was given time then he probably would have turned VA into a profitable airline. He knew VA had some strong areas and some weak areas and he seemed like he really was going to run the airline well.

JB did do a good thing for VA but he probably stayed on for one or two years too long. I think one of the saddest things of all of this (obviously other than job losses etc) is the capital and time invested into VA to make it into what it is today. It never really will get its chance for the second stage of its rebirth (the stage where profits were probably gonna start coming)

Feels like a decade of laying the foundations all but went to waste.

JB did a good job?!? You hiding under a rock? Thanks to JB and his ego VA are heading into voluntary administration! JB too busy chasing a dream turning VA into QF Lite opposed to running VA as profitable well run airline.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


The strategy was long term. It wasn't about making profits straight away. It was a transformation which in my view was successful. The profit was going to come until COVID-19 came.

Luxon wanted to sacrifice long-term for short-term. Of course, knowing what we know now VA should have done that but thats not a fair lens to look at it.

JB had an ambitious vision which over the course of the 2010's decade was met with action. I think we all don't realise the enormous change he did in such a short period whist fighting a strong QANTAS.

I'm sorry this just sounds delusional. So the strategy was to continue to bleed money from the shareholders- for how long?!?
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:58 pm

In other news, a Lion Air A330 is currently flying between BOM and DPS- final destination appears to be ADL. Apparently a previous flight has already arrived.
https://www.flightradar24.com/LNI2854/2461d5dc
 
81819
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Joined: Fri May 23, 2008 9:13 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:01 pm

Morrofinch wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
getluv wrote:

Not really sure if that's true or if we'll be able to tell 10 is making a profit for ViacomCBS.

Nevertheless, VA already has five cashed up indirect owners. Two of them with strategic reasons to still want to be involve, but even they don't want to stay on.


The ol 'SQ' fake news chestnut that's been ongoing for the past 5 years. The other I'm assuming Virgin Group/Branson but isn't contributing for numerous (and 'arguably' selfish reasons)


SQ has basically said no to taking over VA. There are some rumours I have heard they may chase TT AOC to open Scoot Australia but thats another story. A lot of other airlines, notably QR NH MU, at a full takeover once they get rid of debts (well apparently before for MU)

As I keep saying, it just takes one airline (or maybe an airline and an investment firm.) There is a reason why we always seems to have a second airline owned by foreign airlines here. I can only hope it is done properly this time


It will be intersting to see what comes out of the wash.

Scoot is/was a very marginal airline. Once the dust settles, Scoot could become a casuality for the benefit of SIA. As such, I don't think Scoot will be SIA's priority.

With SIA having a strong presence in the Australian market, I'd suggest they would want to come back / align themselves with a new entity. It could be the case some of the fund managers said to be interested in VA's assets are actually acting on behalf of SIA (and the others).

On the bright side, news of new investors suggests if VA does disappear, there could be a new airline to partly fill the gap in the near term.
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:02 pm

eta unknown wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
The rebirth was stillborn. After pouring all this money (sugardaddy funded) into becoming an upmarket carrier, they still didn't manage to charge more than QF- it was a stupid strategy that the board should have stopped, but rather than recognise their own failures continued to let it roll.
Nobody is going to take on $5B of debt.
Maybe we'll finally hear Luxon's account of what happened.


EK413 wrote:
JB did a good job?!? You hiding under a rock? Thanks to JB and his ego VA are heading into voluntary administration! JB too busy chasing a dream turning VA into QF Lite opposed to running VA as profitable well run airline.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


The strategy was long term. It wasn't about making profits straight away. It was a transformation which in my view was successful. The profit was going to come until COVID-19 came.

Luxon wanted to sacrifice long-term for short-term. Of course, knowing what we know now VA should have done that but thats not a fair lens to look at it.

JB had an ambitious vision which over the course of the 2010's decade was met with action. I think we all don't realise the enormous change he did in such a short period whist fighting a strong QANTAS.

I'm sorry this just sounds delusional. So the strategy was to continue to bleed money from the shareholders- for how long?!?


They had moved to the profit stage. Their share holders seemed on board with the transformation save AIR NZ thus their exit.

It wasn't JB. The board and shareholders held the same vision over a decade. Thus why he was CEO for so long.
 
Morrofinch
Posts: 71
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:06 pm

travelhound wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:

The ol 'SQ' fake news chestnut that's been ongoing for the past 5 years. The other I'm assuming Virgin Group/Branson but isn't contributing for numerous (and 'arguably' selfish reasons)


SQ has basically said no to taking over VA. There are some rumours I have heard they may chase TT AOC to open Scoot Australia but thats another story. A lot of other airlines, notably QR NH MU, at a full takeover once they get rid of debts (well apparently before for MU)

As I keep saying, it just takes one airline (or maybe an airline and an investment firm.) There is a reason why we always seems to have a second airline owned by foreign airlines here. I can only hope it is done properly this time


It will be intersting to see what comes out of the wash.

Scoot is/was a very marginal airline. Once the dust settles, Scoot could become a casuality for the benefit of SIA. As such, I don't think Scoot will be SIA's priority.

With SIA having a strong presence in the Australian market, I'd suggest they would want to come back / align themselves with a new entity. It could be the case some of the fund managers said to be interested in VA's assets are actually acting on behalf of SIA (and the others).

On the bright side, news of new investors suggests if VA does disappear, there could be a new airline to partly fill the gap in the near term.


With Silk Air merging into SQ, I think you will find Scoot is SIA long term strategy. They want to be a two class airline group (Silk Air was reasonably premium.)

SIA has said many times they say Scoot as a more international brand rather than being strictly alleged with Singapore.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:32 pm

Morrofinch wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:



The strategy was long term. It wasn't about making profits straight away. It was a transformation which in my view was successful. The profit was going to come until COVID-19 came.

Luxon wanted to sacrifice long-term for short-term. Of course, knowing what we know now VA should have done that but thats not a fair lens to look at it.

JB had an ambitious vision which over the course of the 2010's decade was met with action. I think we all don't realise the enormous change he did in such a short period whist fighting a strong QANTAS.

I'm sorry this just sounds delusional. So the strategy was to continue to bleed money from the shareholders- for how long?!?


They had moved to the profit stage. Their share holders seemed on board with the transformation save AIR NZ thus their exit.

It wasn't JB. The board and shareholders held the same vision over a decade. Thus why he was CEO for so long.


VA had not really moved into a "profit stage". I have no interest in dancing on anyone's grave, but let's not rewrite history with rose coloured spectacles.

They were breaking even operationally, but were significantly over-leveraged, and had poor underlying fundamentals with a surprisingly high cost base while operating at a revenue disadvantage in every single market they competed in.

I wanted them to survive, I really did, and think that Scurrah had the potential to turn the carrier around. However let's not ignore how badly mismanaged the company was by Borghetti and the board. Books will be written about this.

The sad thing is that thousands of people will have to suffer because the people at the top put ego before sound business management.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
moa999
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:42 pm

JB started with a mandate to take a low cost, low CASM airline up market and increase yield.
AJ started with a high cost airline with a mandate to reduce costs but protect market share.
Who would you predict would have succeeded

The share price is obviously the ultimate arbiter.. and while tough to compare I've seen some suggestions that QFs CASM is now below VA.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 1:43 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
I'm sorry this just sounds delusional. So the strategy was to continue to bleed money from the shareholders- for how long?!?


They had moved to the profit stage. Their share holders seemed on board with the transformation save AIR NZ thus their exit.

It wasn't JB. The board and shareholders held the same vision over a decade. Thus why he was CEO for so long.


VA had not really moved into a "profit stage". I have no interest in dancing on anyone's grave, but let's not rewrite history with rose coloured spectacles.

They were breaking even operationally, but were significantly over-leveraged, and had poor underlying fundamentals with a surprisingly high cost base while operating at a revenue disadvantage in every single market they competed in.

I wanted them to survive, I really did, and think that Scurrah had the potential to turn the carrier around. However let's not ignore how badly mismanaged the company was by Borghetti and the board. Books will be written about this.

The sad thing is that thousands of people will have to suffer because the people at the top put ego before sound business management.

Indeed. I do believe VA initially had a sound target they aim - the market has largely demonstrated that we could have some sort of second premium airline. However, a few things that both the management and board had greatly missteped IMHO -
- They have let their costs blow out of the roof too much, too quickly
- It was clear IMHO that JB was not able to contain the costs, as such I do believe board should've realised this early on
- I do believe Chris Luxon in one way saw this coming and thus the boardroom fight.
- VA has let their position blurred for too long as I previously mentioned. They are squeezed from the top by Qantas, bottom from the two LCCs, normally selling more expensive than LCC but without real benefits, and I feel that the top part (premium market) has lacked some serious momentum to charge a premium for.

Now I hope what I said makes sense given the time of the night..... :banghead:

Michael
 
timtam
Posts: 311
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:12 pm

Morrofinch wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:



The strategy was long term. It wasn't about making profits straight away. It was a transformation which in my view was successful. The profit was going to come until COVID-19 came.

Luxon wanted to sacrifice long-term for short-term. Of course, knowing what we know now VA should have done that but thats not a fair lens to look at it.

JB had an ambitious vision which over the course of the 2010's decade was met with action. I think we all don't realise the enormous change he did in such a short period whist fighting a strong QANTAS.

I'm sorry this just sounds delusional. So the strategy was to continue to bleed money from the shareholders- for how long?!?


They had moved to the profit stage. Their share holders seemed on board with the transformation save AIR NZ thus their exit.

It wasn't JB. The board and shareholders held the same vision over a decade. Thus why he was CEO for so long.


Delusional!!
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:13 pm

Further complicating matters was about 2 years ago corporate clients started using Jetstar after they cleaned up their act- something I never thought I'd see.

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