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dredgy
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:25 pm

qf2220 wrote:
In some ways the Velocity program is going to drive what happens. Given that this is of substantial value in the group, it is going to want to be preserved and recovered. But the thing that gives it value is a running airline where points can be redeemed. Without that, points holders see substantially less value in a points program.


Yes it’s the most valuable part of the group. Coles could be a good buyer, integrate it into flybuys perhaps. Depends how useful the data virgin has on its members is.
Velocity can always find more airline partners, maybe focus on international big airlines - Singapore, Etihad, Lufthansa, Thai etc which don’t have a points earning presence in Australia but generally see large amounts of Australian customers. Or maybe not, it’s not going to be an easy job and will take someone with vision and the skill to execute it.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:27 pm

eta unknown wrote:
Further complicating matters was about 2 years ago corporate clients started using Jetstar after they cleaned up their act- something I never thought I'd see.


People will do literally anything for Qantas points, even flying Jetstar.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
dredgy
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:30 pm

eta unknown wrote:
Further complicating matters was about 2 years ago corporate clients started using Jetstar after they cleaned up their act- something I never thought I'd see.


I’ve been using Jetstar for corporate travel since 2011. It’s been a good airline for ages - it usually has young, enthusiastic crew, very clean and modern aircraft, good fares, good food options, good product on both domestic and international. When they flew to ROK I used to use them all the time and would choose them over QantasLink - the Airbii were always comfier and quicker. It’s a fairly polished operation that always felt...modern.

Jetstar used to be the bad low cost option and Virgin was the good low cost option, then they rebranded and became the bad full service option, whilst Tiger became the bad low cost option. Moronic move, they should’ve kept Virgin Blue as the budget brand, and rolled out Virgin Australia as the premium brand on capital city and international routes first.
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:31 pm

dredgy wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
In some ways the Velocity program is going to drive what happens. Given that this is of substantial value in the group, it is going to want to be preserved and recovered. But the thing that gives it value is a running airline where points can be redeemed. Without that, points holders see substantially less value in a points program.


Yes it’s the most valuable part of the group. Coles could be a good buyer, integrate it into flybuys perhaps. Depends how useful the data virgin has on its members is.
Velocity can always find more airline partners, maybe focus on international big airlines - Singapore, Etihad, Lufthansa, Thai etc which don’t have a points earning presence in Australia but generally see large amounts of Australian customers. Or maybe not, it’s not going to be an easy job and will take someone with vision and the skill to execute it.


Ask Ansett frequent flyers what happened to their points? Velocity point holders are a liability and not an asset.
I'm that bad type.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 8:26 pm

dredgy wrote:
eta unknown wrote:
Further complicating matters was about 2 years ago corporate clients started using Jetstar after they cleaned up their act- something I never thought I'd see.


I’ve been using Jetstar for corporate travel since 2011. It’s been a good airline for ages - it usually has young, enthusiastic crew, very clean and modern aircraft, good fares, good food options, good product on both domestic and international. When they flew to ROK I used to use them all the time and would choose them over QantasLink - the Airbii were always comfier and quicker. It’s a fairly polished operation that always felt...modern.

Jetstar used to be the bad low cost option and Virgin was the good low cost option, then they rebranded and became the bad full service option, whilst Tiger became the bad low cost option. Moronic move, they should’ve kept Virgin Blue as the budget brand, and rolled out Virgin Australia as the premium brand on capital city and international routes first.


I think what eta unknown was referring to is that Jetstar now sell through the TMCs like GBT, FCM, QBT etc. The largest companies and the government sector have far and away the largest travel budgets, so distributing through the corporate channels is the only way to gain a significant share of the corporate market.

Previously to book Jetstar you would have had to do it online on their website and either used a company card or be reimbursed. This is definitely not permitted where I work, we must use the appropriate TMC channel. Yes, if even if would save money.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:33 pm

In a paywall article, reportedly a number of 'senior' government officials were in favor of VA re-emerging from administration as a domestic Low Cost Carrier, in response to reports that Etihad were 'allegedly' interested.

Source (Paywall): https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation ... 7838f9f601

Small quote of the relevant bits.

Two serious bidders are believed to be in play, including Australian-run private equity firm BGH and another consortium involving Etihad Airways.

A senior government source said voluntary administration was now believed to be the best option for the airline as it would virtually dissolve its foreign ownership and resurrect the airline as a low-cost domestic carrier.

“Under this model, our preferred outcome is that the airline emerges as a competitor with Qantas but not costing the government a dollar,” a senior government source said.
 
cam747
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:53 pm

moa999 wrote:
JB started with a mandate to take a low cost, low CASM airline up market and increase yield.
AJ started with a high cost airline with a mandate to reduce costs but protect market share.
Who would you predict would have succeeded

The share price is obviously the ultimate arbiter.. and while tough to compare I've seen some suggestions that QFs CASM is now below VA.


That is not what is suggested in this AFR article written just a few hours ago.

Five lessons from Virgin's collapse
It is not well known that Virgin is actually a very efficient airline by global standards. It is about 10 to 15 per cent more efficient than Qantas as measured by cost per available seat kilometres travelled, also known as CASK.

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/five-lessons-from-virgin-s-collapse-20200420-p54lj6
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 10:09 pm

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/413455/loss-of-600-jobs-as-virgin-australia-shuts-its-nz-operations

VA's New Zealand operation closure is now confirmed (well had been talked about for a couple of weeks now), with all New Zealand staff being made redundant.

Has been confirmed that VA, went straight to make the staff redundant and didn't apply for the 12-week wage subsidy scheme that would of given the employees around $600NZD/weeks for the next 12 weeks.

Seems pretty harsh and show's how bad of an state the company is in, to not even apply for the 12-week wage subsidy.
 
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VirginFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:07 pm

rtav wrote:
timtam wrote:
rtav wrote:
Image

This photo was taken by a Perth spotter today (Brenden Scott), no one over here can work out what aircraft this is or where its headed.
Maybe some bright minds here can work it out!
It was reportedly flying over Perth today at 1300AWST flying from West to East (Eastbound).
It has a very close resemblance to a West Jet 787.


Looks like a West Jet 787 - you can almost make out the numbering on the left wing which is consistent with a WestJet 787.

Without being an expert, it looks like the 787 wing profile.


Problem with is, is all 5 WestJet B789’s are supposedly in Canada and nowhere near Australia according to Flightaware

I agree it does look like a 787. The ratio of length to span in the picture appears to match the 787-9.

I've trawled through the Airliners.net database of 787-9s. I think we can eliminate the following operators which don't have blue on the rear fuselage extending forward (unless I've missed a special livery):

  • AeroMexico
  • Air Canada
  • Air China
  • Air Europa
  • Air France
  • Air New Zealand
  • Air Tahiti Nui
  • All Nippon Airways
  • American Airlines
  • Avianca
  • Bamboo Airways
  • Biman Bangladesh
  • British Airways
  • China Eastern Airlines
  • Egypt Air
  • El Al
  • Ethiopian Airlines
  • Etihad Airways
  • EVA Air
  • Gulf Air
  • Hainan Airlines
  • Japan Airlines
  • Juneyao Airlines
  • KLM
  • Korean Air
  • LAN
  • LATAM
  • LOT
  • Neos
  • Norwegian
  • Oman Air
  • Qantas
  • Qatar Airways
  • Royal Air Maroc
  • Saudia
  • Scoot
  • Shanghai Airlines
  • Suparna Airlines
  • Thai Airways
  • Tui
  • Turkish Airlines
  • United Airlines
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Vietnam Airlines
  • Virgin Atlantic
  • Vistara
  • Xiamen Airlines

Which leaves us with:
  • China Southern
  • WestJet
[/list]

However the lighter blue on the China Southern livery should still be visible, and only the WestJet livery has the blue on the engines. Curiouser and curiouser.

V/F
It is not for him to pride himself who loveth his own country, but rather for him who loveth the whole world. The earth is but one country, and mankind its citizens. —Bahá'u'lláh
 
TN486T
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:12 pm

^^That one made me smile. My 46 year old son flew JQ 12 months ago in a suit, never again he said". I said...then you can pay for the airfares next time. ahmmm
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:16 pm

Virgin Australia have officially entered voluntary administration

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... nistration


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zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:19 pm

EK413 wrote:
Virgin Australia have officially entered voluntary administration

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... nistration


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Add to that ASX statement -https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200421/pdf/44h3kq7kcb12fl.pdf
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:27 pm

zkncj wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Virgin Australia have officially entered voluntary administration

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... nistration


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Add to that ASX statement -https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200421/pdf/44h3kq7kcb12fl.pdf

& to add RB had the nerve to blame the Australian Government. Well Richard you have deep pockets, probably you fork out the cash.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.cnn ... index.html


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eamondzhang
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:46 pm

Egyptair has published its schedule for its Sydney visit later on this month

Source: https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... pril-2020/

Airlineroute says:
MS3054 CAI0645 – 2330MNL 789 25APR20
MS3055 MNL0030 – 1010SYD 789 26APR20
MS3056 SYD1300 – 2255CAI 789 27APR20


Looks like some good schedule for Sydney's arrival and departure. Most likely an empty plane back I would say.

Michael
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:05 am

I think we are going to see a very quickly moving story. Expect the unexpected.

I can see that being the case already with new reports surfacing that one or two major shareholders may try and buy back into VA minus the debt and with a bigger stake.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:15 am

Lemme guess, the usual suspects of SQ, EY (or DL). The SQ saga has been a 5 year saga of "Fake News".
 
zkncj
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:19 am

Morrofinch wrote:
I think we are going to see a very quickly moving story. Expect the unexpected.

I can see that being the case already with new reports surfacing that one or two major shareholders may try and buy back into VA minus the debt and with a bigger stake.


Take the leased assets? then leave all the owned assets with the Administrators to sell off to recoup some of the debt left behind by VA MK1.
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:29 am

zkncj wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
I think we are going to see a very quickly moving story. Expect the unexpected.

I can see that being the case already with new reports surfacing that one or two major shareholders may try and buy back into VA minus the debt and with a bigger stake.


Take the leased assets? then leave all the owned assets with the Administrators to sell off to recoup some of the debt left behind by VA MK1.


SCFlyer wrote:
Lemme guess, the usual suspects of SQ, EY (or DL). The SQ saga has been a 5 year saga of "Fake News".


I heard it was ETD which was interested. (Maybe because rumoured that QR and EK also want in.) For the Middle Eastern Airlines, one having that link is quite advantageous.

I would say they would wait buy cheaply AOC, Slots and what not. After all, they will have plenty of aircraft cheaply available post virus. Those less material assets are more worthwhile according to most.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:33 am

zkncj wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
I think we are going to see a very quickly moving story. Expect the unexpected.

I can see that being the case already with new reports surfacing that one or two major shareholders may try and buy back into VA minus the debt and with a bigger stake.


Take the leased assets? then leave all the owned assets with the Administrators to sell off to recoup some of the debt left behind by VA MK1.

No probably the other way around. The leased assets will be returned, much of the debt is actually future lease obligations. Administration enables these leases to be cancelled and the lessors will take back the planes, what they do with them in the current climate is anybody's guess. The bondholders will take a bath and probably end up with >$0.50 in the dollar but will have the opportunity to take equity.

The owned assets will stay with the company. In dollar terms these are principally about half the 737 fleet and 4 777s. Obviously the 737s would go straight to work for the revived business; what happens with the 777s is unclear and will depend on whether new owners see a place for int'l ops. Realistically there is no market for 77Ws at the moment or for the forseeable future so it is likely they will be parked for quite a while.
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Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:38 am

tullamarine wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
I think we are going to see a very quickly moving story. Expect the unexpected.

I can see that being the case already with new reports surfacing that one or two major shareholders may try and buy back into VA minus the debt and with a bigger stake.


Take the leased assets? then leave all the owned assets with the Administrators to sell off to recoup some of the debt left behind by VA MK1.

No probably the other way around. The leased assets will be returned, much of the debt is actually future lease obligations. Administration enables these leases to be cancelled and the lessors will take back the planes, what they do with them in the current climate is anybody's guess. The bondholders will take a bath and probably end up with >$0.50 in the dollar but will have the opportunity to take equity.

The owned assets will stay with the company. In dollar terms these are principally about half the 737 fleet and 4 777s. Obviously the 737s would go straight to work for the revived business; what happens with the 777s is unclear and will depend on whether new owners see a place for int'l ops. Realistically there is no market for 77Ws at the moment or for the forseeable future so it is likely they will be parked for quite a while.


From what I hear, if an Airline is a majority buyer then they will only buy AOC and Slots (obviously not an exhaustive list but those sort of things) and sell the aircraft to pay bond holders as way to minimise any other equity in the airline. The major logic behind this is that the new Airline will be able to source their own airplanes to suit how they wanna run the joint and more so can find them reasonably cheaply.
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:41 am

Just an interesting pick up in the ASX statement:

"Velocity Frequent Flyer, while owned by the Group, is a separate company and is not in administration."

To me personally, this reads they expect the group to largely survive and they do not want Velocity to be touched as it will be key to their come back.

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/share-price- ... ompany/VAH
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:49 am

Morrofinch wrote:
zkncj wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
I think we are going to see a very quickly moving story. Expect the unexpected.

I can see that being the case already with new reports surfacing that one or two major shareholders may try and buy back into VA minus the debt and with a bigger stake.


Take the leased assets? then leave all the owned assets with the Administrators to sell off to recoup some of the debt left behind by VA MK1.


SCFlyer wrote:
Lemme guess, the usual suspects of SQ, EY (or DL). The SQ saga has been a 5 year saga of "Fake News".


I heard it was ETD which was interested. (Maybe because rumoured that QR and EK also want in.) For the Middle Eastern Airlines, one having that link is quite advantageous.

I would say they would wait buy cheaply AOC, Slots and what not. After all, they will have plenty of aircraft cheaply available post virus. Those less material assets are more worthwhile according to most.

Why would EK want to purchase VA? They have nothing to gain...


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Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:51 am

EK413 wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Take the leased assets? then leave all the owned assets with the Administrators to sell off to recoup some of the debt left behind by VA MK1.


SCFlyer wrote:
Lemme guess, the usual suspects of SQ, EY (or DL). The SQ saga has been a 5 year saga of "Fake News".


I heard it was ETD which was interested. (Maybe because rumoured that QR and EK also want in.) For the Middle Eastern Airlines, one having that link is quite advantageous.

I would say they would wait buy cheaply AOC, Slots and what not. After all, they will have plenty of aircraft cheaply available post virus. Those less material assets are more worthwhile according to most.

Why would EK want to purchase VA? They have nothing to gain...


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If QR purchases VA, then they have everything to lose. (In terms of their extrandionarily profitable Aus ops)
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:54 am

Morrofinch wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:



I heard it was ETD which was interested. (Maybe because rumoured that QR and EK also want in.) For the Middle Eastern Airlines, one having that link is quite advantageous.

I would say they would wait buy cheaply AOC, Slots and what not. After all, they will have plenty of aircraft cheaply available post virus. Those less material assets are more worthwhile according to most.

Why would EK want to purchase VA? They have nothing to gain...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



If QR purchases VA, then they have everything to lose. (In terms of their extrandionarily profitable Aus ops)

EK already have access to QF FF which probably cost them near to nothing.

Forking our millions to compete with QF sounds like a ridiculous proposal.


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tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:11 am

EK413 wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Why would EK want to purchase VA? They have nothing to gain...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



If QR purchases VA, then they have everything to lose. (In terms of their extrandionarily profitable Aus ops)

EK already have access to QF FF which probably cost them near to nothing.

Forking our millions to compete with QF sounds like a ridiculous proposal.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It does unless they now believe their existing models are maxxed out and potentially damaged for the forseeable future so they need to find a way to grow outside their ME hub. It is not without risk as EY proved in Europe but the AU domestic duopoly is probably a lot less competitive and risky than the EU market.
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Ellofiend
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:28 am

Etihad will not buy into VA without significantly cashed-up backing, likewise for SQ however, HNA, well let's say they have a somewhat unlimited gold reserve in Beijing. It's almost like you could track bankrupt airlines by looking at EY's investment portfolio, perhaps QR could look into it I don't know but I doubt EK would (their Ex Au ops are already readily fed by QF's DOM network) The problem with VA is that going into administration, no-one is in a place to expand with even the strongest carriers refraining from any risky maneuvers so the only interest they will get is from airline conglomerates and state-owned airlines and none-of which will want to pay what they might have paid for 6 months ago ( I suppose that is the idea) so any interest will have to be of an acceptable amount for the Aus Gov.

Not that JB has made Scurrahs job any easier, he made all the easy decisions that had no consequence because he was "building the airline" which went on for 10 long years spending billions and billions whilst raking in a marginal profit, although Scurrah had little time to turn it around, I think he had a chance to reign it in and start operating a tight ship as QF did following VA's transformation trying to undercut QF's Y cabin. JB always hung onto that excuse of "building the foundations" when he really should have stopped years ago before they launched those HK flights which were really never going to fulfil their role even without the protests and other misfortunes.

But what do I know, I'm just an armchair CEO
Last edited by Ellofiend on Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:34 am

Ellofiend wrote:
Etihad will not buy into VA without significantly cashed-up backing, likewise for SQ however, HNA, well let's say they have a somewhat unlimited gold reserve in Beijing. It's almost like you could track bankrupt airlines by looking at EY's investment portfolio, perhaps QR could look into it I don't know but I doubt EK would (their Ex Au ops are already readily fed by QF's DOM network) The problem with VA is that going into administration, no-one is in a place to expand with even the strongest carriers refraining from any risky maneuvers.


The leaks to the media certainly indicate that there is huge interest from across the world
 
smi0006
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:39 am

Morrofinch wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
zkncj wrote:

Take the leased assets? then leave all the owned assets with the Administrators to sell off to recoup some of the debt left behind by VA MK1.

No probably the other way around. The leased assets will be returned, much of the debt is actually future lease obligations. Administration enables these leases to be cancelled and the lessors will take back the planes, what they do with them in the current climate is anybody's guess. The bondholders will take a bath and probably end up with >$0.50 in the dollar but will have the opportunity to take equity.

The owned assets will stay with the company. In dollar terms these are principally about half the 737 fleet and 4 777s. Obviously the 737s would go straight to work for the revived business; what happens with the 777s is unclear and will depend on whether new owners see a place for int'l ops. Realistically there is no market for 77Ws at the moment or for the forseeable future so it is likely they will be parked for quite a while.


From what I hear, if an Airline is a majority buyer then they will only buy AOC and Slots (obviously not an exhaustive list but those sort of things) and sell the aircraft to pay bond holders as way to minimise any other equity in the airline. The major logic behind this is that the new Airline will be able to source their own airplanes to suit how they wanna run the joint and more so can find them reasonably cheaply.


I didn’t think slots were purchased out side of Heathrow? Else were slots are managed through coordination companies. Virgin would have historical rights to slot controlled AU airports - along with HKG,HND and NZ, but I doubt they would carry over to a new organisation, they can’t be purchased?

QR would be an interesting buyer, but curious to see how much money the Qataris actually have. Not to mention they may have had their hands burnt with IG. I’m still skeptical anyone would take on that debit.
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:43 am

Further to my above comments:

"Virgin's administrator says there are more than ten parties interested in the airline, with some coming forward overnight #auspol" - @MattDoran91 (ABC SENIOR JOURNO)

At this stage, it seems positive. Now is not the time to panic that VA will be liquidated. That seems highly unlikely at this stage.

https://twitter.com/MattDoran91/status/ ... 21409?s=20
 
PJC62
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:00 am

Could it be possible that Qantas and Singapore Airlines form a strategic partnership for codeshare/frequent flyers between Singapore/Australia? I know SQ is Star Alliance and QF is One World, but these are new times and I don’t think for survival they really care about what alliance they belong to, all these airline Partnerships may very well change anyway heading into the unknown future of aviation and traveling. That way they could share the load between Asia and Australia, members could collect and use points on both airlines. They have been fighting for too long on these Oz routes.
 
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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:02 am

PJC62 wrote:
Could it be possible that Qantas and Singapore Airlines form a strategic partnership for codeshare/frequent flyers between Singapore/Australia? I know SQ is Star Alliance and QF is One World, but these are new times and I don’t think for survival they really care about what alliance they belong to, all these airline Partnerships may very well change anyway heading into the unknown future of aviation and traveling. That way they could share the load between Asia and Australia, members could collect and use points on both airlines. They have been fighting for too long on these Oz routes.


I suspect the ACCC and the Singaporean equivalent are not likely to be pleased if QF/SQ proposes a JV on the Oz-Singapore route.
 
PJC62
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:07 am

I agree - but this is the new norm, last week is now history. What worked then may not work now and into the future. it's about survival and not maybe so much policy anymore.
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:09 am

The Govt has appointed Nicholas Moore to be the govt's representative in this process. He is known for playing hard ball and being ruthless at all costs.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:15 am

PJC62 wrote:
Could it be possible that Qantas and Singapore Airlines form a strategic partnership for codeshare/frequent flyers between Singapore/Australia? I know SQ is Star Alliance and QF is One World, but these are new times and I don’t think for survival they really care about what alliance they belong to, all these airline Partnerships may very well change anyway heading into the unknown future of aviation and traveling. That way they could share the load between Asia and Australia, members could collect and use points on both airlines. They have been fighting for too long on these Oz routes.

Highly unlikely it would ever get competition approval.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Sydscott
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:23 am

Morrofinch wrote:
The Govt has appointed Nicholas Moore to be the govt's representative in this process. He is known for playing hard ball and being ruthless at all costs.


LOL. What you actually mean is that the Government has appointed a former Macquarie CEO to be their representative in this process. So the Government at least has someone that has vast experience in doing deals that can see through all of the BS and PR spin crap that Virgin has done and ensure they're actually taking the tough decisions.
 
Ellofiend
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:00 am

PJC62 wrote:
Could it be possible that Qantas and Singapore Airlines form a strategic partnership for codeshare/frequent flyers between Singapore/Australia? I know SQ is Star Alliance and QF is One World, but these are new times and I don’t think for survival they really care about what alliance they belong to, all these airline Partnerships may very well change anyway heading into the unknown future of aviation and traveling. That way they could share the load between Asia and Australia, members could collect and use points on both airlines. They have been fighting for too long on these Oz routes.


Such alliances are long-term, coronavirus is (while not seeming to be) a short term effect and airline JV's are not going to be shaped by it unless there are certain restructuring efforts in place around the world as a result of the financial situation that places the success of airline on such a JV (almost exclusively for niche/capital intensive airlines) and so not to mention that while I am led to believe that SQ is in a more challenging position that QF, a JV such as this will not occur for a variety of reasons, not least the competition of the SIN-AUS network would be almost exclusively owned by QF considering their current JV with BA and this theorised SQ JV which also would not benefit SQ to any meaningful degree (although it would benefit QF in the same way the EK has but that's why they have EK instead and also EK is an un-aligned airline so that gives QF a knowing dependence from EK to feed their Ex-Aus routes via DXB which I think is far and away EK's most important route structuring division meaning the EK-QF partnership will not simply be disbanded as SQ could quite easily do considering the geography and current circumstances.
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:10 am

tullamarine wrote:
EK413 wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:


If QR purchases VA, then they have everything to lose. (In terms of their extrandionarily profitable Aus ops)

EK already have access to QF FF which probably cost them near to nothing.

Forking our millions to compete with QF sounds like a ridiculous proposal.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It does unless they now believe their existing models are maxxed out and potentially damaged for the forseeable future so they need to find a way to grow outside their ME hub. It is not without risk as EY proved in Europe but the AU domestic duopoly is probably a lot less competitive and risky than the EU market.


Even if this was the case it ultimately would mean QF/EK have monopoly of the Australian domestic market factoring they have a partnership in place. Understand their relationship has somewhat gone sour over the years with QF introducing direct PER-LHR services, reverting back to SYD-SIN-LHR services, and taking back a majority control of Trans Tasman services.


Ellofiend wrote:
Etihad will not buy into VA without significantly cashed-up backing, likewise for SQ however, HNA, well let's say they have a somewhat unlimited gold reserve in Beijing.


Where’s this unlimited gold reserve which you claim HNA Group have at their disposal?!? Last I checked HNA Group was bleeding and heading down similar path as VA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
Ellofiend
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:12 am

EK413 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
EK413 wrote:
EK already have access to QF FF which probably cost them near to nothing.

Forking our millions to compete with QF sounds like a ridiculous proposal.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It does unless they now believe their existing models are maxxed out and potentially damaged for the forseeable future so they need to find a way to grow outside their ME hub. It is not without risk as EY proved in Europe but the AU domestic duopoly is probably a lot less competitive and risky than the EU market.


Even if this was the case it ultimately would mean QF/EK have monopoly of the Australian domestic market factoring they have a partnership in place. Understand their relationship has somewhat gone sour over the years with QF introducing direct PER-LHR services, reverting back to SYD-SIN-LHR services, and taking back a majority control of Trans Tasman services.


Ellofiend wrote:
Etihad will not buy into VA without significantly cashed-up backing, likewise for SQ however, HNA, well let's say they have a somewhat unlimited gold reserve in Beijing.


Where’s this unlimited gold reserve which you claim HNA Group have at their disposal?!? Last I checked HNA Group was bleeding and heading down similar path as VA.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Somewhat dubious, but IMO has substance to it and wouldn't put it past them (usually happens when you get convicted of something by people you thought you could trust and were in on the act themselves)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvard ... 6bc637296c
But this was just a small point on the discussion of VA's shareholder's vesting interest in the company following administration, I don't want to get too political for this sake
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 5:16 am

ScoMo appears to have set a shot across Qantas' bows just in case.
“It is important that the competition regulator also, particularly as we are coming out, and the administrator works with the airline to ensure that it can go forward viably, that it is also not crushed by any anti-competitive actions that may be put in place by another player in the market.”

The government respects what AJ has achieved at QF but I don't think they trust him one bit.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
getluv
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:06 am

The bringing out of employees to front a press conference and promo vids to save the company makes me believe the PR on VA being most foreign owned is a big issue.

The 10 parties interested in VA, are only interested for their assets which seem to be a dime a dozen on the open market. Unfortunately the amount VA owes is staggering. I know people like to talk about Channel 10 and Darrell Lea, but look at Myer. You kind of wish it died.

cam747 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
JB started with a mandate to take a low cost, low CASM airline up market and increase yield.
AJ started with a high cost airline with a mandate to reduce costs but protect market share.
Who would you predict would have succeeded

The share price is obviously the ultimate arbiter.. and while tough to compare I've seen some suggestions that QFs CASM is now below VA.


That is not what is suggested in this AFR article written just a few hours ago.

Five lessons from Virgin's collapse
It is not well known that Virgin is actually a very efficient airline by global standards. It is about 10 to 15 per cent more efficient than Qantas as measured by cost per available seat kilometres travelled, also known as CASK.

https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/five-lessons-from-virgin-s-collapse-20200420-p54lj6


What a lazy piece of journalism.

All well and good, except QF charges a premium and actually has a profit margin on tickets sold.
I'm that bad type.
 
gpasternak
Posts: 54
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:08 am

VirginFlyer wrote:
rtav wrote:
timtam wrote:

Looks like a West Jet 787 - you can almost make out the numbering on the left wing which is consistent with a WestJet 787.
[*]Xiamen Airlines[/list]
Which leaves us with:
  • China Southern
  • WestJet
[/list]
However the lighter blue on the China Southern livery should still be visible, and only the WestJet livery has the blue on the engines. Curiouser and curiouser.
V/F


My first guess was Xiamin 787-9 in the UN livery (B-1356). Couldn't find too many pictures but can't see any blue on the engines in the pictures I could find though.
Are there any BBJ's with that paint scheme?
Next flights: MKY-BNE-CNS-TSV-MKY
 
ArtV
Posts: 152
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 7:27 am

getluv wrote:
The 10 parties interested in VA, are only interested for their assets which seem to be a dime a dozen on the open market. Unfortunately the amount VA owes is staggering.


That is the whole point of Administration within Australian insolvency laws - the debt can be dealt with (converted to equity, forgiven, scheme of arrangement where they receive cents in the dollar....). It means that the assets, and the business structure, can then move forward without the debt screwing everything.

However, whether it will work in this case....time will tell.
 
Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:02 am

Big update: https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 54lv1.html

Most interesting line "Budget airline group Arizona-based Indigo Partners is another speculated to have registered "

Second most interesting line "although according to insiders this number has swollen closer to 20 as new expressions of interest came through on Monday night. Although a portion will be tyre kickers, the level of confidence displayed by Strawbridge about finding a suitable bid was unusually high for day one of corporate administration."
Last edited by Morrofinch on Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:06 am

zkncj wrote:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/413455/loss-of-600-jobs-as-virgin-australia-shuts-its-nz-operations

VA's New Zealand operation closure is now confirmed (well had been talked about for a couple of weeks now), with all New Zealand staff being made redundant.

Has been confirmed that VA, went straight to make the staff redundant and didn't apply for the 12-week wage subsidy scheme that would of given the employees around $600NZD/weeks for the next 12 weeks.

Seems pretty harsh and show's how bad of an state the company is in, to not even apply for the 12-week wage subsidy.


Let me put it in perspective: applying for the NZ wage subsidy is a bureaucratic distraction to the bigger picture: trying to stay afloat. It's better to cut the ties now and be done with it. As harsh as it sounds, that's how a lot of businesses approach these things.
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:09 am

gpasternak wrote:
VirginFlyer wrote:
rtav wrote:


My first guess was Xiamin 787-9 in the UN livery (B-1356). Couldn't find too many pictures but can't see any blue on the engines in the pictures I could find though.
Are there any BBJ's with that paint scheme?


I'm pretty sure it was a Westjet 787- if you look at their fleet's operational patterns (1 stored, 4 YYZ-YYC) there are many occurrences where they sit on the ground for days. WHo knows- it could have been headed to ASP for storage or sold... as to why it was travelling east over PER, who knows...
 
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jep7250
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:41 am

getluv wrote:
Ask Ansett frequent flyers what happened to their points? Velocity point holders are a liability and not an asset.

Mine moved to AirNZ who then promptly expired them before I had a chance to redeem.
Once bitten, twice shy!
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2584
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:48 am

jep7250 wrote:
getluv wrote:
Ask Ansett frequent flyers what happened to their points? Velocity point holders are a liability and not an asset.

Mine moved to AirNZ who then promptly expired them before I had a chance to redeem.
Once bitten, twice shy!

Set up of reward programs are very different. Global Rewards had zero asset backing so when AN went, there was nothing to support the points. Velocity is managed by a trust with asset backing. WIthout an airline to claim against would limit its attractiveness but it is not without assets.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:09 am

Re Westjet over Perth, has anyone asked the Canadians (tho not sure they have a thread to make it an easy ask).
 
Fuling
Posts: 290
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:41 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 9:18 am

qf2220 wrote:
Re Westjet over Perth, has anyone asked the Canadians (tho not sure they have a thread to make it an easy ask).


I posted it in the WestJet Thread. Just saw a reply saying that they've all been doing flights between YYZ and YYC. (As FR24 shows too). So nothing really yet.
 
Flyingsottsman
Posts: 801
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 11:55 am

a36001 wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
News Corp is reporting that Joyce and his senior staff are having celebratory drinks tonight......


I highy doubt they are. Even though they are potent rivals, Alan Joyce and the Qantas leadership take no joy out of the fact that nearly 10 thousand people have potentially lost their jobs! Remember there are a number of Qantas staff are in fact ex-Ansett so are well aware of the uncertainty that is going on right now.

Everyone at Qantas will be thinking of their Virgin cousins with heavy hearts tonight, no one takes joy out if this no one! :crying: :crying:


I agree with most of your point, the QF staff on the ground will have heavy hearts for their Virgin brethren but up in the Qantas board room high up over Sydney I think they would have a little smile on their faces with the possibility of their competition disappearing. How many maintenance staff and engineers lost their jobs in Melbourne, and Sydney to be sauced out overseas with the flick of Joyce's' pen ? If that Newscorp story is true, then Joyce should hold his head in shame.

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