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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:28 am

NZ801 wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:

2GB reported it and said based on a Reuter's report.


I would suggest you confirm a source before reporting it blindly. Making “blind” statements without thorough reference or source may be misleading.


Yes I agree. We can’t spend the next few weeks/months mindlessly discussing every piece of information. Some sources are much better than others too. As Chipmunk1973 said, lets look for multiple sources quoting similar stories before posting on here rather than simply being first or having a ‘scoop’ or ‘breaking news’. The best journalists will check and double check even it means being later than the rest. It will raise the quality of conversation on here concerning VA if we can stay calm.


Thats not what Chipmunk1973 said and there is nothing in the rules to say that things can be only posted if there are multiple sources. As long as newsworthy items are credited properly including providing a link to the news article it should be posted. We can also discuss every piece of information, after all its a discussion forum
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:32 am

Morrofinch wrote:
John Thomas is considered a likely option to be the new CEO of VA on the other side according to AFR.

https://www.afr.com/companies/transport ... 422-p54m1d


All I got was a headline report and nothing more.

I am not trying to make this personal. But if you think that making outlandish claims on here with next to no substance, then you’ve come to the wrong place.

You’ve offered many sidelines that for all intents and purposes, are complete bullshit.

Either offer full disclosure and reference to your claims or stop posting. This is bordering on embarrassing for your part. Seriously.

Stop posting what YOU want to happen and actually report anything, anything, MEANINGFUL.
Cheers,
C1973


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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:47 am

redroo wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Swissport is expected to make around 80% or 2000 workers redundant in the next 5-10 days and will begin liquidating critical airport assets as well.

Swissport has notified Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin of its imminent closure of operations.

Swissport is also believed to be owed millions of dollars from Virgin which they believe they wont recoup and seen a 90% fall in revenue

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation ... 39d9586068


Just saw this. Who does SWISSPORT handle in Australia besides Jetstar, Virgin and some of QF?


In Perth they do Cobham FIFO flights

Also they have a national agreement for AirAsia (all brands) plus NZ is covered at most ports.

Japan Airlines at MEL

From memory they also have SQ at one port

Most of it is domestic, around 75% of the business
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:58 am

Qantas16 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The Swissport (Australia) potential liquidation might be more alarming. Airlines would not be able to restart quickly if there's no one to service the planes on the ramp. Their parent company (HNA Group, which also is the majority shareholder of Avolon Aerospace) is in huge trouble with its SAirGroup-type strategy (Swissport was once part of SAirGroup). Is there an Australian-owned company that could fill the void?


Yes, though not necessarily Australian owned. The two other big players, Menzies and Dnata, as well as Oceania, though there are probably more. Not sure on the financial position of them but they are less reliant on VA (if at all). At least one of them would be able to step up.


Menzies will be hurting as well. While cant speak for every port in PER Menzies does all the freight for VA so this is now doubt is hurting them. Cabin Services is also owned by Dnata who have the cleaning contracts for VA at the 4 main ports so they will be hurting to some degree as well.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:05 pm

jrfspa320 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
QF742 wrote:
I think now that VA have entered administration and sorting themselves out, a further industry package will make its way from the govt.
- Africa - Probably OK given SAA is likely to fall over so 5 times a week on A380 is definitely possible.
At best, you may see international recover 2019 volumes by 2025.


If SAA falls over, it wont generate huge amounts of extra traffic for QF from SYD, as a significant amount is local WA traffic. I can see QF more likely putting on a A330 flight from PER or MK adding further flights.


Considering MK has just gone into voluntary administration as well, that seems unlikely

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptc ... business-1
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Morrofinch
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:05 pm

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
John Thomas is considered a likely option to be the new CEO of VA on the other side according to AFR.

https://www.afr.com/companies/transport ... 422-p54m1d


All I got was a headline report and nothing more.

I am not trying to make this personal. But if you think that making outlandish claims on here with next to no substance, then you’ve come to the wrong place.

You’ve offered many sidelines that for all intents and purposes, are complete bullshit.

Either offer full disclosure and reference to your claims or stop posting. This is bordering on embarrassing for your part. Seriously.

Stop posting what YOU want to happen and actually report anything, anything, MEANINGFUL.



In what is a very fast moving scenario, I am reporting what the media reports. I am trying to kept everyone informed. At all times I have sourced my information and in this case I have provided a direct link to an article (I do this if I can) but obviously sometimes I hear stuff on TV or Radio.

I am very proud of my comments and stand by every single one of them. I have and will continue to inform everyone of the media reporting as it comes out. I think everyone, especially the workers of VA, appreciate these updates. It also ignites debate amongst the decision/will it happen/should happen and to be frank thats what this forum is somewhat here for.

The last 3 lines of your comments were deeply offensive and I am calling for an apology.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:08 pm

qf789 wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:


If SAA falls over, it wont generate huge amounts of extra traffic for QF from SYD, as a significant amount is local WA traffic. I can see QF more likely putting on a A330 flight from PER or MK adding further flights.


Considering MK has just gone into voluntary administration as well, that seems unlikely

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptc ... business-1


So sad for MK
Hopefully the government will help them out for tourism in the future.

Perth could see no MK or SA
Going to be hard to link to Africa once this is all over
Last edited by waoz1 on Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:17 pm

SYD has recorded a 45% drop in passenger numbers in March 20 compared to March 2019.

Domestic fell 43.3% while International fell 47.9%

Internationally China, Japan and the US saw the largest reductions

https://blueswandaily.com/sydney-airpor ... -mar-2020/
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:20 pm

China Southern will continue to send the A388 to SYD, 1 weekly for the next couple of weeks, from 9 May it will be downgraded to A359

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... f-21apr20/
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waoz1
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:22 pm

Looks like SAA are running a Joburg-Cape Town-Perth repatriation flights
A346s
Dates not confirmed
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:30 pm

Emirates has pushed back return to service to July

ADL - daily 77L eff 1 Sep 20
BNE - 1 daily 77W from 1 Jul 20, 2 daily from 25 Oct 20, A388 operating second service
MEL - 1 daily A388 from 1 Jul 20, increases to 2 daily from 1 Aug 20
PER - 4 weekly A388 from 2 Jul 20, daily from 13 Jul 20
DXB-SIN-MEL - daily 77W from 1 Aug 20
SYD - daily A388 from 1 Jul, 2 daily from 1 Sep 20 (77W operating second service)
DXB-SYD-CHC - daily A388 from 1 Aug 20

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... t-21apr20/
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:36 pm

Qatar flew around 36,000 passengers in and out of Australia between 27 Mar and 13 Apr 20.

Arriving aircraft into Australia were mostly empty with only 4,474 passengers carried while out bound saw around 32,000 passengers carried

https://australianaviation.com.au/2020/ ... -in-april/
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QF64
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:52 pm

waoz1 wrote:
Looks like SAA are running a Joburg-Cape Town-Perth repatriation flights
A346s
Dates not confirmed



High Commission in Pretoria today confirming QF repatriation flight on 29 APR:

QF7026 JNB2030 - MEL1620+1 789
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 1:53 pm

qf789 wrote:
redroo wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Swissport is expected to make around 80% or 2000 workers redundant in the next 5-10 days and will begin liquidating critical airport assets as well.

Swissport has notified Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin of its imminent closure of operations.

Swissport is also believed to be owed millions of dollars from Virgin which they believe they wont recoup and seen a 90% fall in revenue

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation ... 39d9586068


Just saw this. Who does SWISSPORT handle in Australia besides Jetstar, Virgin and some of QF?


In Perth they do Cobham FIFO flights

Also they have a national agreement for AirAsia (all brands) plus NZ is covered at most ports.

Japan Airlines at MEL

From memory they also have SQ at one port

Most of it is domestic, around 75% of the business


They don't do all AirAsia brands as Dnata was doing Thai AirAsia X in BNE until they suspended services. Pretty sure they do SQ in CBR whilst Menzies/Dnata look after the other capitals.

qf789 wrote:
Qantas16 wrote:
aemoreira1981 wrote:
The Swissport (Australia) potential liquidation might be more alarming. Airlines would not be able to restart quickly if there's no one to service the planes on the ramp. Their parent company (HNA Group, which also is the majority shareholder of Avolon Aerospace) is in huge trouble with its SAirGroup-type strategy (Swissport was once part of SAirGroup). Is there an Australian-owned company that could fill the void?


Yes, though not necessarily Australian owned. The two other big players, Menzies and Dnata, as well as Oceania, though there are probably more. Not sure on the financial position of them but they are less reliant on VA (if at all). At least one of them would be able to step up.


Menzies will be hurting as well. While cant speak for every port in PER Menzies does all the freight for VA so this is now doubt is hurting them. Cabin Services is also owned by Dnata who have the cleaning contracts for VA at the 4 main ports so they will be hurting to some degree as well.


That is true but as a % of their operation, they are a lot less dependent on VA which was the point I was trying to make. It will hurt all GHAs if VA collapses but I believe Swissport will feel the greatest impact.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:02 pm

Morrofinch wrote:
John Thomas is considered a likely option to be the new CEO of VA on the other side according to AFR.

https://www.afr.com/companies/transport ... 422-p54m1d


Um, the article is simply a piece where the journalist asks whether John Thomas would be interested for the job if anyone asked him, and he says he would love to have the chance for the job. no-one, other than Thomas himself, is considering himself for the role at this stage.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:14 pm

tullamarine wrote:
Considering MK has just gone into voluntary administration as well, that seems unlikely

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptc ... business-1

I guess once the world opens up again, in the short term then that the Australia - South Africa market will be EK and QRs before QF jumps back on board, perhaps from PER instead of SYD?

Later options could possibly be Ethiopian Airlines (ET) who have an extensive network across Africa, probably not much chance of Air Austral (UU) starting again, or of Air Seychelles (HM) or Kenya Airways (KQ) giving Australia a crack.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:51 pm

qf789 wrote:
NZ801 wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:

I would suggest you confirm a source before reporting it blindly. Making “blind” statements without thorough reference or source may be misleading.


Yes I agree. We can’t spend the next few weeks/months mindlessly discussing every piece of information. Some sources are much better than others too. As Chipmunk1973 said, lets look for multiple sources quoting similar stories before posting on here rather than simply being first or having a ‘scoop’ or ‘breaking news’. The best journalists will check and double check even it means being later than the rest. It will raise the quality of conversation on here concerning VA if we can stay calm.


Thats not what Chipmunk1973 said and there is nothing in the rules to say that things can be only posted if there are multiple sources. As long as newsworthy items are credited properly including providing a link to the news article it should be posted. We can also discuss every piece of information, after all its a discussion forum


He asked to confirm a source which to my thinking is what I said, lets look for multiple sources. The discussion is going to get monotonous very quickly if every 30 second news story on VA is posted here as fact. It might not be the rules but lets aim for good quality discussion. I’m not the only one calling out certain posts.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:32 pm

ArtV wrote:
no-one, other than Thomas himself, is considering himself for the role at this stage.

Wouldn't be surprised if one of the possible buyers signs up JT to help them with due diligence
If (and that's a big if given the number of hats in the ring) they are the ultimate buyer then there might be a role in the future
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:39 pm

Two quick things re Virgin and Swissport:

1) Lets be clear about responsibilities. Although and Administrator does have broad sweeping power they generally don't remove Management of an operating Company. The history of Australian Corporate Administration in an environment where it is the Board and Management that have called them in is that existing Management stays in. Could a new CEO be appointed by a new Board of a New Company, absolutely BUT such a decision is a long, long way off.

2) Re Swissport, I saw a whole lot of Hyperbole from them about job losses / loss of skills etc and how they need a Government bailout. Lets be clear that the people Swissport employ can easily be re-employed by a new ground handler or directly by airlines rather than having it outsourced. Hell the Airports themselves could just take it over and offer it as another service they provide. If the Federal Government was willing to allow Virgin to go into Administration then it's definitely going to allow Swissport to do it.

On a side note, I see Geoffrey Thomas all around the media. It would seem that now that his lobbying effort via the news and CAPA has failed to secure Virgin a bailout he's everywhere commenting about how Virgin should emerge. He really does represent everything that is wrong with Australian Media's lack of diversity and opinion. At least when you watch Tony Webber comment on stuff he's presenting factual analysis based on economic modelling. Alas between his airline ratings website and CAPA he has kind of sullied his reputation a bit which is disappointing.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:50 pm

Can we keep the Virgin administration conversation in the Virgin thread?
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:55 pm

ArtV wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
John Thomas is considered a likely option to be the new CEO of VA on the other side according to AFR.

https://www.afr.com/companies/transport ... 422-p54m1d


Um, the article is simply a piece where the journalist asks whether John Thomas would be interested for the job if anyone asked him, and he says he would love to have the chance for the job. no-one, other than Thomas himself, is considering himself for the role at this stage.

It seems a bit arse-about talking about the potential new CEO when the new owner isn't yet determined. Surely we expect them to have a say in this. It is also entirely possible that the new owner make look at the plans Scurrah was working towards before CV and say "why don't we keep him?"

We are only 2 days into the administration which will run for at least 2 months but probably longer; no serious decisions can be made in advance of the creditor's meeting next week. It is possible the creditors jack up and appoint their own administrator or receiver. The latter would be bad news for everyone and I doubt it will happen as nothing destroys value for creditors quicker than a liquidation.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:57 pm

qf2220 wrote:
Can we keep the Virgin administration conversation in the Virgin thread?

Given there is so little happening with most planes grounded, without the VA discussion, is there much to talk about?
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 11:39 pm

tullamarine wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
Can we keep the Virgin administration conversation in the Virgin thread?

Given there is so little happening with most planes grounded, without the VA discussion, is there much to talk about?


Why have 2 threads then?

And other topics here include Swissport, SAA repatriation, MK bankruptcy, theorising on QF post recovery and others. Still plenty to talk about that could get drowned by (in some cases repeated) postings of the same info about the VA administration process.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:48 am

Two updates I have come across today:

Fox Sports News Channel has reported that Scurrah is "keen" to keep AFL sponsorship going despite the AFL CEO actively seeking other sponsors.

Sky News in AM Agenda reported that the Govt is actively pushing against a full service foreign airline as they believe they have other interests at heart. According to Sky, this puts the Indigo group as the leader aviation player to strike a deal.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:42 am

There is a bit of speculation around that QF will go for an equity raising in the next few weeks to shore up its balance sheet. Both QF and VA are looking at substantial losses with ineffective fuel hedges following the collapse of the oil price. The fall in the AUD will also be an issue given QF's USD revenues which previously provided them with a natural hedge have basically dried up. QF will need to recognise these losses in their June accounts; for VA, administration will probably mean they will be able to walk away from these contracts.
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:09 am

No doubt a few banks worried about that extra exposure to VA.

Wouldn't also be surprised to see QF do quite a balance sheet clean in the FY. Eg. Write down A380s and possibly other aircraft to near zero as well as equity in the various Jetstars.

Lets them then exit those positions in the future without further writedowns.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 4:36 am

tullamarine wrote:
There is a bit of speculation around that QF will go for an equity raising in the next few weeks to shore up its balance sheet. Both QF and VA are looking at substantial losses with ineffective fuel hedges following the collapse of the oil price. The fall in the AUD will also be an issue given QF's USD revenues which previously provided them with a natural hedge have basically dried up. QF will need to recognise these losses in their June accounts; for VA, administration will probably mean they will be able to walk away from these contracts.


Do fuel hedges (like most contracts) not have a force majeure term in them? Id be surprised if they did not.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:48 am

qf2220 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
There is a bit of speculation around that QF will go for an equity raising in the next few weeks to shore up its balance sheet. Both QF and VA are looking at substantial losses with ineffective fuel hedges following the collapse of the oil price. The fall in the AUD will also be an issue given QF's USD revenues which previously provided them with a natural hedge have basically dried up. QF will need to recognise these losses in their June accounts; for VA, administration will probably mean they will be able to walk away from these contracts.


Do fuel hedges (like most contracts) not have a force majeure term in them? Id be surprised if they did not.

Found this quote in the Energy Times so I guess not
"Given the substantial reduction in our capacity, we do have an overhedged position and that will come at a cost... that we'll realize in the next couple of months," Australia's Qantas Airways Ltd Chief Financial Officer Vanessa Hudson told analysts this week.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Captdasbomb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:59 am

NTLDaz wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:


If SAA falls over, it wont generate huge amounts of extra traffic for QF from SYD, as a significant amount is local WA traffic. I can see QF more likely putting on a A330 flight from PER or MK adding further flights.


I guess that depends on how much of the SAA traffic is east coast originating. There would certainly be a proportion coming West on Virgin. How many I do not know. Is there any data on that anywhere ?


Think most of the SAA market would rather take the cheaper option & go via Dubai/Doha/KL/Singapore unless Qantas does the Perth to Joburg direct. Would love Ethiopian to bring in their A350s though
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:41 am

Captdasbomb wrote:
Think most of the SAA market would rather take the cheaper option & go via Dubai/Doha/KL/Singapore unless Qantas does the Perth to Joburg direct. Would love Ethiopian to bring in their A350s though


I thought Sydney to Jo’burg was already a long flight. How much longer would it be to transit via Dubai? Doesn’t seem to be desirable.
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 7:51 am

tullamarine wrote:
It seems a bit arse-about talking about the potential new CEO when the new owner isn't yet determined. Surely we expect them to have a say in this. It is also entirely possible that the new owner make look at the plans Scurrah was working towards before CV and say "why don't we keep him?"

We are only 2 days into the administration which will run for at least 2 months but probably longer; no serious decisions can be made in advance of the creditor's meeting next week. It is possible the creditors jack up and appoint their own administrator or receiver. The latter would be bad news for everyone and I doubt it will happen as nothing destroys value for creditors quicker than a liquidation.


Agree. I think the future CEO of VA95 (Sorry, I do mean MK II but I had to throw the Windows95 reference for levity) will be determined by the new owners(s) and specifically what their business plan is.

As you suggested, if the business plan of the new owners is on track with what Scurrah has planned, then he may well remain in the job. If anything, such a move displays a level of confidence publicly and such an endorsement is free, good PR for the business. A run of CEO’s in any company is never a good feeling for the staff and often means that competent people will think about jumping ship.
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
 
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:01 am

Timeline for Virgin Australia to find a new buyer: Virgin Mk II blueprint by early May, "non-binding indicative offers" due middle of May, "serious, binding offers" by middle of June and the winner chosen by the end of June.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ree-months
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:06 am

Former Ansett chairman and British Airways, CEO Sir Rod Eddington is the latest to call for Virgin Mk II to ditch Tiger and close all international routes. This seems to be the model most experts and commentators are suggesting, with the option to either keep some short-haul such as NZ and Bali or restart those once domestic is needed down and profitable.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 54mng.html
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:50 am

Morrofinch wrote:
Fox Sports News Channel has reported that Scurrah is "keen" to keep AFL sponsorship going despite the AFL CEO actively seeking other sponsors.


Although I don't agree with a business in these dire financial straights blowing millions on sponsorship, I can see this as better value than the car-obsessed Borghetti using Virgin Australia to sponsor Super 8s.
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:08 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Former Ansett chairman and British Airways, CEO Sir Rod Eddington is the latest to call for Virgin Mk II to ditch Tiger and close all international routes. This seems to be the model most experts and commentators are suggesting, with the option to either keep some short-haul such as NZ and Bali or restart those once domestic is needed down and profitable.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 54mng.html


What would happen to Tiger as an airline in Australia, would the whole airline shut down and we never seen them again, or will they go it alone and be a 4th domestic airline of Australia competing with QF, JQ, we hope VA, that's what I don't understand what happens to Tiger?
 
Captdasbomb
Posts: 172
Joined: Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:08 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:42 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Captdasbomb wrote:
Think most of the SAA market would rather take the cheaper option & go via Dubai/Doha/KL/Singapore unless Qantas does the Perth to Joburg direct. Would love Ethiopian to bring in their A350s though


I thought Sydney to Jo’burg was already a long flight. How much longer would it be to transit via Dubai? Doesn’t seem to be desirable.


It is. So will be Perth - Sydney - Johannesburg.
If you are connecting to the rest of Southern Africa the SAA 5am arrival was ideal compared to the 5pm Qantas arrival
 
Obzerva
Posts: 501
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:48 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:48 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Morrofinch wrote:
Fox Sports News Channel has reported that Scurrah is "keen" to keep AFL sponsorship going despite the AFL CEO actively seeking other sponsors.


Although I don't agree with a business in these dire financial straights blowing millions on sponsorship, I can see this as better value than the car-obsessed Borghetti using Virgin Australia to sponsor Super 8s.


Oh is that why that happened.
Was the weirdest sponsorship I’ve seen.
 
User avatar
SCFlyer
Posts: 633
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:29 pm

Probably a bit early to celebrate the "VA Mk II" situtation as no formal MOU has been signed yet. Also yet to be known if the preferred bidder(s) are going in the direction of either Full Service, LCC or a Hybrid to enable a more closer analysis/discussion on which routes are being kept and which are going.

For example, if the new owner going in the direction of a domestic only LCC, it'll be highly likely they'll not want the Velocity Program and may do with the funds from a later Velocity sale to funnel it towards the LCC unbundled/BoB service.

Also, before anyone goes that Velocity could not "stand alone" without an airline, interested parties may actually want Velocity to acquire/merge the Velocity customer base into their own Loyalty Program, such as Wesfarmer's Flybuys or SIA's Krisflyer
 
moa999
Posts: 980
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:37 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:45 pm

Administrator to date has said no plans to sell Velocity separately and I think that's the right position.

You need an airline to make the FF program work due to the ability of give the FF program seats at marginal costs which allows the program member to get up to 6-8c a point, versus say 0.8c for a toaster.
Plus valuable data in flight history and the like to allow marketing targeting.
Maybe a bit less if VA2 is positioned as a LCC or hybrid aka Virgin Blue.

Flybuys would also have considerable customer overlap with Velocity. Only interest would be partner contracts if they survived a sale.
And SIA would really only want a small percentage, unless they have designs on yet another attempt at the Aus market
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 450
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 1:21 pm

tullamarine wrote:
There is a bit of speculation around that QF will go for an equity raising in the next few weeks to shore up its balance sheet. Both QF and VA are looking at substantial losses with ineffective fuel hedges following the collapse of the oil price. The fall in the AUD will also be an issue given QF's USD revenues which previously provided them with a natural hedge have basically dried up. QF will need to recognise these losses in their June accounts; for VA, administration will probably mean they will be able to walk away from these contracts.


Any idea of how that equity raising will be performed?
 
ben175
Posts: 807
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:44 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:04 pm

Captdasbomb wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Captdasbomb wrote:
Think most of the SAA market would rather take the cheaper option & go via Dubai/Doha/KL/Singapore unless Qantas does the Perth to Joburg direct. Would love Ethiopian to bring in their A350s though


I thought Sydney to Jo’burg was already a long flight. How much longer would it be to transit via Dubai? Doesn’t seem to be desirable.


It is. So will be Perth - Sydney - Johannesburg.
If you are connecting to the rest of Southern Africa the SAA 5am arrival was ideal compared to the 5pm Qantas arrival


I actually did JNB-SYD-PER once on QF and surprisingly it didn’t feel like the enormous backtrack it was. Funnily enough the fare was only an extra $200 for the domestic leg - in Business Class.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 8468
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:28 pm

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Captdasbomb wrote:
Think most of the SAA market would rather take the cheaper option & go via Dubai/Doha/KL/Singapore unless Qantas does the Perth to Joburg direct. Would love Ethiopian to bring in their A350s though


I thought Sydney to Jo’burg was already a long flight. How much longer would it be to transit via Dubai? Doesn’t seem to be desirable.


SYD-JNB isn't super long (~1.5 hours shorter than SYD-LAX) but going via DXB is indeed a significant detour. Nonetheless Emirates, and to a lessor extent SQ and QR, carry a LOT of traffic between Australia and South Africa.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2590
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:07 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
There is a bit of speculation around that QF will go for an equity raising in the next few weeks to shore up its balance sheet. Both QF and VA are looking at substantial losses with ineffective fuel hedges following the collapse of the oil price. The fall in the AUD will also be an issue given QF's USD revenues which previously provided them with a natural hedge have basically dried up. QF will need to recognise these losses in their June accounts; for VA, administration will probably mean they will be able to walk away from these contracts.


Any idea of how that equity raising will be performed?

Nol but I would guess it will be an institutional placement.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Obzerva
Posts: 501
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:48 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:25 pm

moa999 wrote:
Administrator to date has said no plans to sell Velocity separately and I think that's the right position.

You need an airline to make the FF program work due to the ability of give the FF program seats at marginal costs which allows the program member to get up to 6-8c a point, versus say 0.8c for a toaster.
Plus valuable data in flight history and the like to allow marketing targeting.
Maybe a bit less if VA2 is positioned as a LCC or hybrid aka Virgin Blue.

Flybuys would also have considerable customer overlap with Velocity. Only interest would be partner contracts if they survived a sale.
And SIA would really only want a small percentage, unless they have designs on yet another attempt at the Aus market


I think the best example of a programme without an airline recently would probably be Air Canada and Aeroplan.

Aeroplan was AC's frequent flyer programme, then they spun it out and a partnership agreement was signed between the two, with that agreement due to expire mid year this year, with AC's plan being to start their own frequent flyer programme.
The result, AC just ended up buying Aeroplan back.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 2590
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:28 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
Captdasbomb wrote:
Think most of the SAA market would rather take the cheaper option & go via Dubai/Doha/KL/Singapore unless Qantas does the Perth to Joburg direct. Would love Ethiopian to bring in their A350s though


I thought Sydney to Jo’burg was already a long flight. How much longer would it be to transit via Dubai? Doesn’t seem to be desirable.


SYD-JNB isn't super long (~1.5 hours shorter than SYD-LAX) but going via DXB is indeed a significant detour. Nonetheless Emirates, and to a lessor extent SQ and QR, carry a LOT of traffic between Australia and South Africa.

My daughter flew to JNB last year on EY via AUH. Of course, she was budget driven and EY was $400 less than SA and $600 less than QF.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
eamondzhang
Posts: 1876
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 8:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 12:19 am

tullamarine wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:

I thought Sydney to Jo’burg was already a long flight. How much longer would it be to transit via Dubai? Doesn’t seem to be desirable.


SYD-JNB isn't super long (~1.5 hours shorter than SYD-LAX) but going via DXB is indeed a significant detour. Nonetheless Emirates, and to a lessor extent SQ and QR, carry a LOT of traffic between Australia and South Africa.

My daughter flew to JNB last year on EY via AUH. Of course, she was budget driven and EY was $400 less than SA and $600 less than QF.

And I knew plenty of people who flew to JNB via DXB, AUH, SIN and even HKG especially after travel insurances no longer cover SAA.

Michael
 
User avatar
Chipmunk1973
Posts: 304
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2016 10:23 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:16 am

eamondzhang wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
My daughter flew to JNB last year on EY via AUH. Of course, she was budget driven and EY was $400 less than SA and $600 less than QF.

And I knew plenty of people who flew to JNB via DXB, AUH, SIN and even HKG especially after travel insurances no longer cover SAA.

Michael


Don’t get me wrong, I was not of the opinion that it’s something that shouldn’t be done or is an anyway pointless. My first thought when looking at Apple/Google maps of Aus and SA is that DXB and AUH look like a huge diversion, especially time wise. However the upshot of this is that they’re perfectly fine places to stay for a day or two if you’ve got the time to break up your flights.

Maybe one day I’ll decide to go watch an Aus v SA ODI cricket match at Newlands in CPT. More than satisfied to sit in a pool for two days on the way over and back.
Cheers,
C1973


B707, B717, B727, B734, B737, B738, B743, B77W, A300, A320, A332, A333, A339, A388, BAe146, Cessna 206.
 
anstar
Posts: 3300
Joined: Sun Nov 23, 2003 3:49 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:44 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Former Ansett chairman and British Airways, CEO Sir Rod Eddington is the latest to call for Virgin Mk II to ditch Tiger and close all international routes. This seems to be the model most experts and commentators are suggesting, with the option to either keep some short-haul such as NZ and Bali or restart those once domestic is needed down and profitable.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 54mng.html


What would happen to Tiger as an airline in Australia, would the whole airline shut down and we never seen them again, or will they go it alone and be a 4th domestic airline of Australia competing with QF, JQ, we hope VA, that's what I don't understand what happens to Tiger?


VA could relaunch and focus on the main capital cities and the administrators may wind down or potentially sell the Tiger business to another party.
 
ArtV
Posts: 152
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:29 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:34 am

anstar wrote:
Flyingsottsman wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Former Ansett chairman and British Airways, CEO Sir Rod Eddington is the latest to call for Virgin Mk II to ditch Tiger and close all international routes. This seems to be the model most experts and commentators are suggesting, with the option to either keep some short-haul such as NZ and Bali or restart those once domestic is needed down and profitable.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 54mng.html


What would happen to Tiger as an airline in Australia, would the whole airline shut down and we never seen them again, or will they go it alone and be a 4th domestic airline of Australia competing with QF, JQ, we hope VA, that's what I don't understand what happens to Tiger?


VA could relaunch and focus on the main capital cities and the administrators may wind down or potentially sell the Tiger business to another party.


I agree that Tiger will likely be carved out - sold off or put in a different structure. It is unlikely to serve any purpose for a leaner VA operation that moves down the cost chain.
 
utaussiefan
Posts: 3
Joined: Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:26 am

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 24, 2020 2:45 am

Virgin Australia owe $6.9 Billion dollars and are hoping to get a waiver on aircraft leases.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-healt ... KKCN22604D

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