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Chipmunk1973
Posts: 249
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:30 am

If not reported already, CX are planning an increase in flights to SYD and resuming MEL towards the end of June.

No indication if this is for PAX and/or Freight. Described as “Optimistic and subject to Hong Kong Government approval”.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/cathay-pacific-eyes-soft-restart-more-flights-to-sydney-melbourne
Cheers,
C1973
 
JQ321
Posts: 147
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 8:39 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
If not reported already, CX are planning an increase in flights to SYD and resuming MEL towards the end of June.

No indication if this is for PAX and/or Freight. Described as “Optimistic and subject to Hong Kong Government approval”.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/cathay-pacific-eyes-soft-restart-more-flights-to-sydney-melbourne

It is clearly for passengers, as one, Cargo doesn't have any restriction on it and two, CX is already operating cargo flights just without passengers.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:19 am

JQ321 wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
If not reported already, CX are planning an increase in flights to SYD and resuming MEL towards the end of June.

No indication if this is for PAX and/or Freight. Described as “Optimistic and subject to Hong Kong Government approval”.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news/cathay-pacific-eyes-soft-restart-more-flights-to-sydney-melbourne

It is clearly for passengers, as one, Cargo doesn't have any restriction on it and two, CX is already operating cargo flights just without passengers.


:checkmark: Thanks.
Cheers,
C1973
 
grjplanes
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:39 am

QF7025 is currently en-route MEL-JNB, with 789 VH-ZND (Yam Dreaming). Taking quite a southern routing, although maybe not as far south as the 744s go.

It also looks like CPT-PER with SAA will in fact be operating tonight, with A346 ZS-SNC (Star Alliance livery).
 
Gemuser
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:56 am

ArtV wrote:
anstar wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
....but setting up from scratch and getting a new AOC is a very time consuming project so this approach would take a year at least.

Or they can make an offer for to the administrators for the Tiger AOC.


Or VARA, or VAI.... There are four AOC's on offer.

I wish people wouldn't say this. YOU CANNOT BUY OR SELL AN AOC!

What you can buy or sell is the data [ops & maintenance manuals etc] & physical assets that it represents. ANY change in these can trigger a review of the AOC. I haven't seen the review process in any details in decades but it can take as long as getting a new one. [I'm talking about the CASA review, NOT the preparation of all the documentation].

Gemuser
 
ArtV
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:09 am

Gemuser wrote:
ArtV wrote:
anstar wrote:
Or they can make an offer for to the administrators for the Tiger AOC.


Or VARA, or VAI.... There are four AOC's on offer.

I wish people wouldn't say this. YOU CANNOT BUY OR SELL AN AOC!

What you can buy or sell is the data [ops & maintenance manuals etc] & physical assets that it represents. ANY change in these can trigger a review of the AOC. I haven't seen the review process in any details in decades but it can take as long as getting a new one. [I'm talking about the CASA review, NOT the preparation of all the documentation].

Gemuser


No one is suggesting that you buy the piece of paper that says "AOC".....the concept is that the legal operating entity that holds the AOC, including the operating structure (but not debts) that goes with it, would be sold. Going concern transaction. Even that is not as simple as it sounds (as you point out), but sales of entities operating airlines happens all the time.
 
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Velocity7
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:26 pm

I've noticed VA only seem to be utilising the VH-YIx and VH-YFx registered 737 aircraft at the moment whilst in Administration. Any reason for this?
 
Gemuser
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:22 am

ArtV wrote:
Gemuser wrote:
ArtV wrote:

Or VARA, or VAI.... There are four AOC's on offer.

I wish people wouldn't say this. YOU CANNOT BUY OR SELL AN AOC!

What you can buy or sell is the data [ops & maintenance manuals etc] & physical assets that it represents. ANY change in these can trigger a review of the AOC. I haven't seen the review process in any details in decades but it can take as long as getting a new one. [I'm talking about the CASA review, NOT the preparation of all the documentation].

Gemuser


No one is suggesting that you buy the piece of paper that says "AOC".....the concept is that the legal operating entity that holds the AOC, including the operating structure (but not debts) that goes with it, would be sold. Going concern transaction. Even that is not as simple as it sounds (as you point out), but sales of entities operating airlines happens all the time.

I agree with everything you say except:"no one is suggesting that you buy a piece of paper". I am convinced that many people, not all, on this site think just that.

Yes, "sales of entities operating airlines happen all the time" BUT such sales [in Australia, at least] require CASA approval and such approval is not automatic. They have to be satisfied that the new/continuing entity will maintain the required level of safety. That's why I say you can't buy an AOC, you can't, you effectively require a new CASA approval.

Gemuser
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:24 am

More fuel to the SQ rescue scenario for Virgin Australia, although this story seems to be less about facts and more a rehash of the same tired old speculation. Media must be getting tired of finding new angles to Virgin Australia stories until there’s actual news to report!

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 54ny9.html
 
BAeRJ100
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:18 am

Velocity7 wrote:
I've noticed VA only seem to be utilising the VH-YIx and VH-YFx registered 737 aircraft at the moment whilst in Administration. Any reason for this?


YIx and YFx registered 737s are quite a bit younger than the remaining VOx registered aircraft and many VUx. Possibly indicative of which 737s will be up for exiting the fleet if/when that occurs?
B737/738/739/744ER/752/753/763/77L/77W/788/789
A223/320/321/332/333/346/359/388
MD82/MD88/717/F100/RJ85/RJ100/146-100/200/300
E175/190/CRJ700/900
 
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:06 am

BAeRJ100 wrote:
Velocity7 wrote:
I've noticed VA only seem to be utilising the VH-YIx and VH-YFx registered 737 aircraft at the moment whilst in Administration. Any reason for this?


YIx and YFx registered 737s are quite a bit younger than the remaining VOx registered aircraft and many VUx. Possibly indicative of which 737s will be up for exiting the fleet if/when that occurs?


Which are leased and which are owned?
 
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qf789
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:17 am

qf2220 wrote:
BAeRJ100 wrote:
Velocity7 wrote:
I've noticed VA only seem to be utilising the VH-YIx and VH-YFx registered 737 aircraft at the moment whilst in Administration. Any reason for this?


YIx and YFx registered 737s are quite a bit younger than the remaining VOx registered aircraft and many VUx. Possibly indicative of which 737s will be up for exiting the fleet if/when that occurs?


Which are leased and which are owned?


Here is the list of what’s owned and leased

Owned

737-700 - VBY and VBZ

737-800 - BZG, VOK, VOL, VOM, VON, VOO, VOP, VOQ, VUE, VUF, VUI, VUJ, VUL, VUO, VOP, VUU, VUV, YFW, YFX, YFY, YFZ, YIA, YIB, YID, YIE, YIF, YIG, YIH, YIL, YIM, YIO, YIQ, YIT, YIW, YIY, YIZ, YWA, YWD, YWE

Leased

Bocomm Leasing - VOS, VOT, VUA, VUC
Goshawk Aviation - VUG, VUH, YFS, YFT, YFU, YFV, YIJ, YIU
Orix Aviation - VUK
Castlelake - VUQ, VUS, VUW, VUY
BOC - VUR
DAE Capital - VUT, YFC
Merx Aviation - VUZ, YIR
Macquarie Airfinance - YFE
Crishima Real Estate - YFF
Aercap - YFG, YFI, YFN, YFQ
Jackson Square Aviation - YFH, YFJ, YFL
Avalon - YFK
GECAS - YFP
SMBC - YFR, YIS, YIV, YVC
Aircastle - YVD
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qf2220
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:32 am

Thanks @qf789.
 
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Velocity7
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:20 am

qf789 wrote:
qf2220 wrote:
BAeRJ100 wrote:

YIx and YFx registered 737s are quite a bit younger than the remaining VOx registered aircraft and many VUx. Possibly indicative of which 737s will be up for exiting the fleet if/when that occurs?


Which are leased and which are owned?


Here is the list of what’s owned and leased

Owned

737-700 - VBY and VBZ

737-800 - BZG, VOK, VOL, VOM, VON, VOO, VOP, VOQ, VUE, VUF, VUI, VUJ, VUL, VUO, VOP, VUU, VUV, YFW, YFX, YFY, YFZ, YIA, YIB, YID, YIE, YIF, YIG, YIH, YIL, YIM, YIO, YIQ, YIT, YIW, YIY, YIZ, YWA, YWD, YWE

Leased

Bocomm Leasing - VOS, VOT, VUA, VUC
Goshawk Aviation - VUG, VUH, YFS, YFT, YFU, YFV, YIJ, YIU
Orix Aviation - VUK
Castlelake - VUQ, VUS, VUW, VUY
BOC - VUR
DAE Capital - VUT, YFC
Merx Aviation - VUZ, YIR
Macquarie Airfinance - YFE
Crishima Real Estate - YFF
Aercap - YFG, YFI, YFN, YFQ
Jackson Square Aviation - YFH, YFJ, YFL
Avalon - YFK
GECAS - YFP
SMBC - YFR, YIS, YIV, YVC
Aircastle - YVD


Thanks qf789. Based on that info and what's in the air right now, it's a mix of owned and leased across multiple companies. Maybe it is as simple as newer aircraft?
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:51 am

Velocity7 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

Which are leased and which are owned?


Here is the list of what’s owned and leased

Owned

737-700 - VBY and VBZ

737-800 - BZG, VOK, VOL, VOM, VON, VOO, VOP, VOQ, VUE, VUF, VUI, VUJ, VUL, VUO, VOP, VUU, VUV, YFW, YFX, YFY, YFZ, YIA, YIB, YID, YIE, YIF, YIG, YIH, YIL, YIM, YIO, YIQ, YIT, YIW, YIY, YIZ, YWA, YWD, YWE

Leased

Bocomm Leasing - VOS, VOT, VUA, VUC
Goshawk Aviation - VUG, VUH, YFS, YFT, YFU, YFV, YIJ, YIU
Orix Aviation - VUK
Castlelake - VUQ, VUS, VUW, VUY
BOC - VUR
DAE Capital - VUT, YFC
Merx Aviation - VUZ, YIR
Macquarie Airfinance - YFE
Crishima Real Estate - YFF
Aercap - YFG, YFI, YFN, YFQ
Jackson Square Aviation - YFH, YFJ, YFL
Avalon - YFK
GECAS - YFP
SMBC - YFR, YIS, YIV, YVC
Aircastle - YVD


Thanks qf789. Based on that info and what's in the air right now, it's a mix of owned and leased across multiple companies. Maybe it is as simple as newer aircraft?

I guess this applies to both QF and VA. Are the airlines going to rotate their parked fleets or is it that the planes that are currently flying will be the ones used throughout the crisis with the rest remaining stored?
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:08 am

Velocity7 wrote:
qf789 wrote:
qf2220 wrote:

Which are leased and which are owned?


Here is the list of what’s owned and leased

Owned

737-700 - VBY and VBZ

737-800 - BZG, VOK, VOL, VOM, VON, VOO, VOP, VOQ, VUE, VUF, VUI, VUJ, VUL, VUO, VOP, VUU, VUV, YFW, YFX, YFY, YFZ, YIA, YIB, YID, YIE, YIF, YIG, YIH, YIL, YIM, YIO, YIQ, YIT, YIW, YIY, YIZ, YWA, YWD, YWE

Leased

Bocomm Leasing - VOS, VOT, VUA, VUC
Goshawk Aviation - VUG, VUH, YFS, YFT, YFU, YFV, YIJ, YIU
Orix Aviation - VUK
Castlelake - VUQ, VUS, VUW, VUY
BOC - VUR
DAE Capital - VUT, YFC
Merx Aviation - VUZ, YIR
Macquarie Airfinance - YFE
Crishima Real Estate - YFF
Aercap - YFG, YFI, YFN, YFQ
Jackson Square Aviation - YFH, YFJ, YFL
Avalon - YFK
GECAS - YFP
SMBC - YFR, YIS, YIV, YVC
Aircastle - YVD


Thanks qf789. Based on that info and what's in the air right now, it's a mix of owned and leased across multiple companies. Maybe it is as simple as newer aircraft?


My assumption would be that the aircraft flying don't require maintenance any time soon. Deferring all-but-essential maintenance would be an obvious way to manage cash flow.
Worked Hard, Flew Right
 
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bjwonline
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:00 am

We have a growing population of parked 737’s here on the closed runway in SYD. The number has doubled today. Now have 6 from VA and 7 QF
 
PlutekPlutek
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:24 am

bjwonline wrote:
We have a growing population of parked 737’s here on the closed runway in SYD. The number has doubled today. Now have 6 from VA and 7 QF


Which runway is closed in SYD ?
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:37 am

PlutekPlutek wrote:
bjwonline wrote:
We have a growing population of parked 737’s here on the closed runway in SYD. The number has doubled today. Now have 6 from VA and 7 QF


Which runway is closed in SYD ?


I believe it’s 07/25, the cross runway.
Cheers,
C1973
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:52 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
PlutekPlutek wrote:
bjwonline wrote:
We have a growing population of parked 737’s here on the closed runway in SYD. The number has doubled today. Now have 6 from VA and 7 QF


Which runway is closed in SYD ?


I believe it’s 07/25, the cross runway.


That's interesting. I think it would make more sense to close the 3rd runway. Guess there's always a reason.
 
Reton
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:24 am

Hi everyone, My first post.
I live in Spain but from Australia.
There is an Iberia A350 just landed in Sydney to pick up stranded Spaniards. The first Iberia aircraft in Australia.
It is scheduled to leave tomorrow Thu 29Apr about 1600.
If anyone is nearby, could you get some pics of it on Aussie soil?
Would be awesome if there was a way to get some of the Sydney skyline in view too, and of course any takeoff shots. Thanks everyone
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:37 am

NTLDaz wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
PlutekPlutek wrote:

Which runway is closed in SYD ?


I believe it’s 07/25, the cross runway.


That's interesting. I think it would make more sense to close the 3rd runway. Guess there's always a reason.

It would have made sense but I assume there is the potential of too much salt in the air on the third runway which is surrounded by water meaning corrosion could be a problem.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:55 am

tullamarine wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:

I believe it’s 07/25, the cross runway.


That's interesting. I think it would make more sense to close the 3rd runway. Guess there's always a reason.

It would have made sense but I assume there is the potential of too much salt in the air on the third runway which is surrounded by water meaning corrosion could be a problem.

Plus doesn’t it make sense keeping the parallel runway open? The strong winds which warrant 07/25 Ops usually hit Sydney during July, & August.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:30 am

EK413 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
NTLDaz wrote:

That's interesting. I think it would make more sense to close the 3rd runway. Guess there's always a reason.

It would have made sense but I assume there is the potential of too much salt in the air on the third runway which is surrounded by water meaning corrosion could be a problem.

Plus doesn’t it make sense keeping the parallel runway open? The strong winds which warrant 07/25 Ops usually hit Sydney during July, & August.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Sorry I'm not understanding. I doubt there's going to be enough traffic in the foreseeable future for there to be a need for more than 1 north-south runway or am I missing something?
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:54 am

NTLDaz wrote:
EK413 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
It would have made sense but I assume there is the potential of too much salt in the air on the third runway which is surrounded by water meaning corrosion could be a problem.

Plus doesn’t it make sense keeping the parallel runway open? The strong winds which warrant 07/25 Ops usually hit Sydney during July, & August.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Sorry I'm not understanding. I doubt there's going to be enough traffic in the foreseeable future for there to be a need for more than 1 north-south runway or am I missing something?


No, didn’t miss anything. Just my opinion it makes sense to keep the parallel runways operative. Nothing during these unpredictable times needs to make sense.
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
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EK413
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:06 pm

Iberia Airlines Airbus A350-900 EC-NBE has touched down in Sydney operating a repatriation flight Madrid-Bangkok-Sydney, and is scheduled to depart back home tomorrow afternoon.

Image

https://www.instagram.com/p/B_kFRqblI4Q ... w36c3qul2g


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SCFlyer
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:09 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
More fuel to the SQ rescue scenario for Virgin Australia, although this story seems to be less about facts and more a rehash of the same tired old speculation. Media must be getting tired of finding new angles to Virgin Australia stories until there’s actual news to report!

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 54ny9.html


It's understood to be SIA's parent company Temasek mulling a partnership with BGH capital.

Regardless if Temasek is serious or not, IMO, this may be recognition by Temasek that SIA/SQ are incredibly dismal at managing their overseas investments.

It is rumoured at this stage Temasek is 'considering' co-managing a 'VA mk2' alongside BGH, with 'VA mk2' and SQ working together as 'sister companies' (as opposed to SQ taking control of a 'VA mk II').

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-30/ ... n/12198130
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:02 am

SCFlyer wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
More fuel to the SQ rescue scenario for Virgin Australia, although this story seems to be less about facts and more a rehash of the same tired old speculation. Media must be getting tired of finding new angles to Virgin Australia stories until there’s actual news to report!

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 54ny9.html


It's understood to be SIA's parent company Temasek mulling a partnership with BGH capital.

Regardless if Temasek is serious or not, IMO, this may be recognition by Temasek that SIA/SQ are incredibly dismal at managing their overseas investments.

It is rumoured at this stage Temasek is 'considering' co-managing a 'VA mk2' alongside BGH, with 'VA mk2' and SQ working together as 'sister companies' (as opposed to SQ taking control of a 'VA mk II').

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-30/ ... n/12198130

Temasek is the sovereign wealth fund of the SG government and is worth an incredible SGD330Bn.(Approximately double the value of the Australian Future Fund) Investing via Temasek makes more sense than SQ given that is its purpose. Whether SQ supplies the airline expertise to Temasek if this investment actually happen is unknown and probably won't become evident unless it actually happens.

It appears there are at least 3 very serious players in the VA race. Whilst the most visible has been the BGH syndicate, I hear the Bain Capital syndicate led by former Jetstar and A2 Milk boss Jayne Hrdlicka are also very committed in their intent.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
VHOGU
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:31 am

BAeRJ100 wrote:
Velocity7 wrote:
I've noticed VA only seem to be utilising the VH-YIx and VH-YFx registered 737 aircraft at the moment whilst in Administration. Any reason for this?


YIx and YFx registered 737s are quite a bit younger than the remaining VOx registered aircraft and many VUx. Possibly indicative of which 737s will be up for exiting the fleet if/when that occurs?

All of the VH-Y** aircraft have wifi and are BSI. A lot of the VH-YI* aircraft have seat back power and there’s a few flying at the moment with split scimitar winglets. Not sure if that’s got anything to do with which aircraft they’ve selected, but they’re a lot nicer than the VH-V** aircraft for crew and passengers.
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:06 am

Just saw Sky News (coming up to 1 clock in the afternoon 30/04/20) they are reporting that Andrew Forest) the WA Billionaire might be and I say might be considering getting a consortium together to buy Virgin Australia, it was only headlines so I have not heard the whole story. Buts that what was being reported on SKy News this afternoon.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:42 am

Wrap-up of today's first meeting of Virgin Australia creditors, the administrator predicts sale of Virgin to be "a very competitive process" involving "high-quality bidders with fantastic credentials and the ability to restructure this business."

Also, first round of "non-binding indicative offers" for Virgin Australia are due by May 15 so Indigo, Macquarie, Twiggy, SQ/Temasek et al had better get a wiggle on.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... ty-bidders
 
PJC62
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:44 am

2 NokScoot 777-212ER (HS-XBC, 18 Y/O) & (HS-XBB, 19 Y/O) have arrived in Alice Springs. These are both SQ birds in a past life. Wonder if they will ever see the blue sky again. The Alice Springs is really filling up....
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:46 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
Just saw Sky News (coming up to 1 clock in the afternoon 30/04/20) they are reporting that Andrew Forest) the WA Billionaire might be and I say might be considering getting a consortium together to buy Virgin Australia, it was only headlines so I have not heard the whole story. Buts that what was being reported on SKy News this afternoon.


Twiggy would be interesting, and I imagine he could rope in other WA-based companies such as Wesfarmers, who are said to be very interested in Velocity enhancing its FlyBuys scheme. I wonder how a largely PER-based Virgin would look? Would it seek to relocate its base to Perth if PER was willing to throw down the same $200m as BNE for example? Maybe it could even step into the void left by SAA and run Perth-Jo'burg flights. At least you think that a PER-based Virgin would keep the A330s because the PER market would be very sensitive to losing those and having only a sub-standard B737 business class going up against the Qantas A330s.
 
JQ321
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:50 am

CraigAnderson wrote:
Flyingsottsman wrote:
Just saw Sky News (coming up to 1 clock in the afternoon 30/04/20) they are reporting that Andrew Forest) the WA Billionaire might be and I say might be considering getting a consortium together to buy Virgin Australia, it was only headlines so I have not heard the whole story. Buts that what was being reported on SKy News this afternoon.


Twiggy would be interesting, and I imagine he could rope in other WA-based companies such as Wesfarmers, who are said to be very interested in Velocity enhancing its FlyBuys scheme. I wonder how a largely PER-based Virgin would look? Would it seek to relocate its base to Perth if PER was willing to throw down the same $200m as BNE for example? Maybe it could even step into the void left by SAA and run Perth-Jo'burg flights. At least you think that a PER-based Virgin would keep the A330s because the PER market would be very sensitive to losing those and having only a sub-standard B737 business class going up against the Qantas A330s.

Why would they waste any money moving? It would have to be more than $200 Million to get them to move.
 
NTLDaz
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:01 am

JQ321 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
Flyingsottsman wrote:
Just saw Sky News (coming up to 1 clock in the afternoon 30/04/20) they are reporting that Andrew Forest) the WA Billionaire might be and I say might be considering getting a consortium together to buy Virgin Australia, it was only headlines so I have not heard the whole story. Buts that what was being reported on SKy News this afternoon.


Twiggy would be interesting, and I imagine he could rope in other WA-based companies such as Wesfarmers, who are said to be very interested in Velocity enhancing its FlyBuys scheme. I wonder how a largely PER-based Virgin would look? Would it seek to relocate its base to Perth if PER was willing to throw down the same $200m as BNE for example? Maybe it could even step into the void left by SAA and run Perth-Jo'burg flights. At least you think that a PER-based Virgin would keep the A330s because the PER market would be very sensitive to losing those and having only a sub-standard B737 business class going up against the Qantas A330s.

Why would they waste any money moving? It would have to be more than $200 Million to get them to move.


If their owner wants them to move they'd move. I don't think it'd be the smartest move though.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:24 am

It has been reported that 8 different consortia have been granted access to the VA Data Room for Due Diligence. This is less than the original 10 but it is unknown if some have dropped off or merged. Bids are due on 15/5.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:05 am

I recon there would be lots of potential for VA operating out of Perth, the FIFO's as mentioned maybe a Perth Joburg service depending on what happen to SAA, and open up Perth to the US west Coast and Hawaii starting the flight in Perth via either Sydney or Melbourne, use it's Tokyo slot for a flight from Perth. You are looking at a largish city all on its own on the West Coast of Australia, I recon there is potential for VA on the West. If Forrest does go for it, I recon he would have the backing of the WA State Government.
 
dredgy
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:15 am

JQ321 wrote:
Why would they waste any money moving? It would have to be more than $200 Million to get them to move.


I’d assume they’d try to get the state government to pay for it.
 
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CraigAnderson
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:39 am

tullamarine wrote:
It has been reported that 8 different consortia have been granted access to the VA Data Room for Due Diligence. This is less than the original 10 but it is unknown if some have dropped off or merged. Bids are due on 15/5.


Apparently eight have signed the necessary NDA but 12 more are yet to do so, so there's 20 contenders all up.
 
Obzerva
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:39 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
I recon there would be lots of potential for VA operating out of Perth, the FIFO's as mentioned maybe a Perth Joburg service depending on what happen to SAA, and open up Perth to the US west Coast and Hawaii starting the flight in Perth via either Sydney or Melbourne, use it's Tokyo slot for a flight from Perth. You are looking at a largish city all on its own on the West Coast of Australia, I recon there is potential for VA on the West. If Forrest does go for it, I recon he would have the backing of the WA State Government.


Agree with some of this, however US may be pushing the envelope a little too far given this is going to be a smaller VA that emerges.
VA's terminal at PER is perfect to for JNB or other international connections clearly, however unless they do a deal with whatever emerges out of SA, they'll have no oncarriage within South Africa.
For Tokyo, if you were to have VA on a PER-HND, I'd suggest NH would need to move off that one (there's not room for both), so NH would logically pick up BNE (essentially a swap for what was the intended VA flight).
US from PER I just can't see it happening.
 
QF742
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:50 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
I recon there would be lots of potential for VA operating out of Perth, the FIFO's as mentioned maybe a Perth Joburg service depending on what happen to SAA, and open up Perth to the US west Coast and Hawaii starting the flight in Perth via either Sydney or Melbourne, use it's Tokyo slot for a flight from Perth. You are looking at a largish city all on its own on the West Coast of Australia, I recon there is potential for VA on the West. If Forrest does go for it, I recon he would have the backing of the WA State Government.


I can’t see VA moving HQ to Perth. It will be very costly to move HQ, even with government assistance.

In relation to this hypothetical Perth international expansion, even less likely. The new VA will need to actually make money in order to pay down what debt it is left with and have enough cash for ongoing business and capital expenditure. Operating a small sub fleet for international ops is simply not feasible. I hope the next VA executive team will be prudent and pragmatic and create success for VA.
 
tullamarine
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:04 am

QF742 wrote:
Flyingsottsman wrote:
I recon there would be lots of potential for VA operating out of Perth, the FIFO's as mentioned maybe a Perth Joburg service depending on what happen to SAA, and open up Perth to the US west Coast and Hawaii starting the flight in Perth via either Sydney or Melbourne, use it's Tokyo slot for a flight from Perth. You are looking at a largish city all on its own on the West Coast of Australia, I recon there is potential for VA on the West. If Forrest does go for it, I recon he would have the backing of the WA State Government.


I can’t see VA moving HQ to Perth. It will be very costly to move HQ, even with government assistance.

In relation to this hypothetical Perth international expansion, even less likely. The new VA will need to actually make money in order to pay down what debt it is left with and have enough cash for ongoing business and capital expenditure. Operating a small sub fleet for international ops is simply not feasible. I hope the next VA executive team will be prudent and pragmatic and create success for VA.

I doubt the new VA will be interested in international for a few years at least. It is likely they will be stuck with the 77Ws which they may park in the desert until a recommencement of LAX services becomes feasible or a market to sell them into reappears. The international market will be terrible for 5 or 6 years. This will be a problem for all international airlines including QF who last year got nearly 40% of their revenues from international. Domestic travel is likely to recover more quickly though probably much slower than airline executives would like.
717, 721/2, 732/3/4/5/7/8/9, 742/3/4, 752/3, 762/3, 772/E/W, 788/9, 300,310, 319,320/1, 332/3, 359, 388, DC9, DC10, F28, F100, 142,143, E75/90, CR2, D82/3/4, SF3, ATR
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:13 am

tullamarine wrote:
It has been reported that 8 different consortia have been granted access to the VA Data Room for Due Diligence. This is less than the original 10 but it is unknown if some have dropped off or merged. Bids are due on 15/5.


I don’t know the ins and outs of buying an airline business but two weeks seems like a very short time frame to put together an offer. And I’m certain the the paper work would need to have every tee crossed and eye dotted. Looks like a sleepless couple of weeks for some folk.
Cheers,
C1973
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:20 am

tullamarine wrote:
It appears there are at least 3 very serious players in the VA race. Whilst the most visible has been the BGH syndicate, I hear the Bain Capital syndicate led by former Jetstar and A2 Milk boss Jayne Hrdlicka are also very committed in their intent.


Your last point about Bain and JH is an interesting one and I’m surprised there hasn’t been more news about it. There was a small piece in last weekends Weekend Australian mentioning this but no meaningful news. Just an opinion suggesting it could be one of the dark horse bids.
Cheers,
C1973
 
Captdasbomb
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:48 am

NTLDaz wrote:
JQ321 wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:

Twiggy would be interesting, and I imagine he could rope in other WA-based companies such as Wesfarmers, who are said to be very interested in Velocity enhancing its FlyBuys scheme. I wonder how a largely PER-based Virgin would look? Would it seek to relocate its base to Perth if PER was willing to throw down the same $200m as BNE for example? Maybe it could even step into the void left by SAA and run Perth-Jo'burg flights. At least you think that a PER-based Virgin would keep the A330s because the PER market would be very sensitive to losing those and having only a sub-standard B737 business class going up against the Qantas A330s.

Why would they waste any money moving? It would have to be more than $200 Million to get them to move.


If their owner wants them to move they'd move. I don't think it'd be the smartest move though.


Get rid of the Virgin name & rebrand back to Sky West out of WA ;)
 
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eta unknown
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:01 am

Twiggy's only having a sqiz to see either:
a) how much it would cost to do all his FIFO work in-house
b) how much other FIFO contracts pay
c) is it worthwhile to create a new Skywest- but no flying outside WA
 
travelhound
Posts: 2007
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:10 am

Just did some quick (back of the envelope) numbers on the value of VA to try and work out what type of bids will likely come in for the airline.

My numbers suggest the airline has a liquid asset base somewhere in the region of $$4.7 billion dollars. Considering the airline has not made a profit for many years and the long term effects of the Coronavirus are still unknown I have valued that asset base at $3.5 billion, a 25% discount.

With debts in the region of $7.0 billion and estimated restructuring costs (above administration costs) of $300 million I have assumed total liabilities in the region of $7.3 billion.

My settlement figures for creditors is based on the following:

Secured creditors (long term debt): 90 cents in the dollar.
Aircraft leases (long term debt): 65 cents in the dollar
Employees: 100 cents in the dollar
Unsecured creditors: 30 cents in the dollar.

The adjusted amount owing to creditors would be $4.8 billion with $4.3 billion being long term debt.

I suspect, for a bid to be attractive to the secured creditors it would have to include a cash component to reduce their exposure to the airline (and the industry). As such, secured creditors may be willing to take a discount if a bid includes a cash component that pays out a significant amount (35%) of the debts owing. I also suspect some of the secured debt is at junk rates, so it would be advantages for a new owner to pay out or renegotiate these debts.

I have used a bid offer including $2.1 billion in cash.

This would reduce unsecured creditors to 0% (based upon 30 cents in the dollar), employees 100% and secured debtors 35%, resulting in a VA v2 with long term debts of approximately $2.6 billion.

With VA probably needing an extra $1.0 billion (new debt / equity by a super fund) to ensure its liquidity (or recapitalise the airline) a total bid could come in the region of $3.2-3.7 billion.

If we throw in a good will component, a bid could come in higher than $4.0 billion. If we do see a bid this high, it would suggest the bidder sees value in the business as a going concern.

It will be interesting to see what types of bids the administrators eventually receive.
 
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Chipmunk1973
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:29 am

travelhound wrote:
Just did some quick (back of the envelope) numbers on the value of VA to try and work out what type of bids will likely come in for the airline.


Interesting read, thanks.

I guess a lot of what the airline ends up looking like is dependent upon the restructure process.

Is your liquid asset base also inclusive of Velocity?

This is a guess on my part, but I’m of the opinion that there will be a reasonable amount of 737 leases retained to ensure enough aircraft to offer enough frequency as competition to QF especially on SYD-MEL. Whilst the A330s offered a very nice J service, I don’t see those leases remaining, particularly when it’s been reported many times that the rates are not favourable.

Definitely agree that upfront cash will be part of the deal. Improved liquidity will be beneficial.

Given that the only decent service (money wise) internationally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the owned 777s being retained for at least a SYD-LAX service within the next 6-12 months.

Apologies for the “dot pointy” style of reply.
Cheers,
C1973
 
GazzaFromOz
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:27 pm

Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:42 am

Hello everyone! Long time visitor to this discussion thread who thought he should join in! I’m more of a random question asker so I thought my first post should be one.

I looked at the satellite image of ASP provided by FR24 and I see it has numerous aircraft in storage there. I’m assuming it’s not recent so who’s aircraft normally go there? Thx in advance
 
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CraigAnderson
Posts: 523
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Re: Australian Aviation Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:50 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
This is a guess on my part, but I’m of the opinion that there will be a reasonable amount of 737 leases retained to ensure enough aircraft to offer enough frequency as competition to QF especially on SYD-MEL. Whilst the A330s offered a very nice J service, I don’t see those leases remaining, particularly when it’s been reported many times that the rates are not favourable.
Given that the only decent service (money wise) internationally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the owned 777s being retained for at least a SYD-LAX service within the next 6-12 months.


I agree, a very interesting analysis from travelhound!

The 'golden boomerang' of BNE-SYD-MEL will soak up a lot of B737s just to remain in the same ballpark as Qantas although I'd think Virgin could maybe run one every hour instead of how QF has every half hour a lot of the time, so yes, some B737s will also need to be leased. As sad as it would be to see the A330s vanish, I think they are as good as gone, unless Twiggy or Wesfarmers is a successful bidder, because unless Virgin Mk II brings back Borghetti's planned 'Perth Product' for lie-flat 737 business class beds, which I don't see happening, Qantas would easily trump Virgin for corporate and Government travellers by going all-put with its own A330s.

I think SYD-LAX and BNE-LAX would be strong contenders, the owned B777s won't fetch much on the second-hand marker these days and those two routes are fairly competitive, especially BNE-LAX which has only Qantas. Virgin Australia dropped MEl-LAX a few years ago, the market already has QF and UA, plus the cost for crew overnighting in MEL all added up.

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