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jayunited
Posts: 2765
Joined: Sat Jan 05, 2013 12:03 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:46 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
For those who didn’t see - UA sent another publicly released memo today. I think the honesty is a stark indicator of what’s to come Oct 1, the writing is on the wall industry wide. Have to admire UA for at least being up front about it, it’s not fun for anybody to have to think about, but better than leading folks on for 6 months only to let them go come Oct 1.

Also interesting to finally hear a carrier acknowledge that this isn’t just going to “pick back up” even to a half-recovered state come June 1. Sounds like for now they’re going to trim thru June and likely even beyond. DL and WN have only really trimmed their schedules thru May at this point.

https://hub.united.com/2020-04-15-a-mes ... 29257.html


United has been upfront with employees from the very beginning and both Oscar and Kirby have been keeping employees informed every time something changes. There have been more town halls at first in person now through virtual town halls over the past two and half months than I can remember. As the crisis continued to worsen UA has been truthful with employees, 4-5 weeks ago (which now looking back seems like a life time ago) everyone thought this would be over by June and the industry would begin climbing its way out of this crisis. Four weeks ago Kirby was telling employees that by the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday UA expected that demand would have recovered to around 80% of what it was in 2019. Today Kirby is saying by the Thanksgiving and Christmas holiday travel season we would be lucky if we have recovered 40% of our 2019 demand. Granted Thanksgiving and Christmas are a long ways away but that just shows people how long the road to recovery really is. Thanksgiving is the busiest travel period here in the U.S. and if we are only expecting at best a 40% recovery from 2019 those numbers don't look good.

As far as layoffs again they Oscar and Kirby have been upfront with employees since mid-March when it became clear the U.S. industry would be bailed out but had to maintain hourly employees payroll. They made sure employees knew there would be no forced pay cuts, or forced reduction in hours until October 1st. We all know that come October 1st all bets are off and UA like every other airline will do whatever is necessary to make sure the COMPANY survives. What does that equate to come October 1st, I don't know for sure but I'm going to guess that out of the current 95,000 UA employees worldwide, I think 45,000-55,000 of us (I include myself in the count because who knows) could potentially be layoff or furloughed. I appreciate the bailout because it has given the US industry aviation employees time to breath and get ready for what's to come, because come October 1st every airline here in the U.S. is on its own and will do whatever is necessary to make sure the company survives.
Last edited by jayunited on Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 7744
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 12:49 pm

AA's SEC filing of 4/15/20 outlined its expectations for the manner in which CARES Act loans will work:

- Senior secured, with collateral TBD
- 10 year term
- more stock warrants to be issued to government
- no dividends/stock repurchases, limits to exec comp, until loan is repaid


Pursuant to the loan program established under the CARES Act, the Company intends to apply for a secured term loan (the “Loan
Program Term Loan”) in the principal amount of approximately $4.75 billion. The final amount will be dependent on the amount of loans
requested and ultimately received by other airlines and other eligible parties. The Loan Program Term Loan is expected to be a senior
secured obligation, with collateral to be determined. In connection with the Loan Program Term Loan, the Company would issue to Treasury
additional warrants (the “Loan Program Warrants”) to purchase approximately 38.0 million shares of common stock of the Company
(assuming a loan of $4.75 billion) at a price of $12.51 per share. The Loan Program Warrants will have the same terms and conditions as the
PSP Warrants.
In connection with the Loan Program Term Loan, the Company will be required to comply with the relevant provisions of the CARES
Act, including those prohibiting the repurchase of common stock and the payment of common stock dividends, as well as those restricting the
payment of certain executive compensation. Under the CARES Act, these restrictions will apply until one year after the Loan Program Term
Loan is repaid in full.


https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/st ... 4734904a5f
 
ZazuPIT
Posts: 119
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:24 pm

MRYapproach wrote:
ZazuPIT wrote:
Hopefully this won't get deleted, my last post from this site was...in part it states "The number of passengers at US airports has fallen to less than 100,000 a day – a drop of 96 per cent from last year and on a par with levels last seen in 1954." That is a staggering figure. Full story https://thewofa.com/2020/04/us-air-traf ... lybulletin


I'm kind of impressed that in 1954 the US airlines were carrying 100k pax per day.


I'm not. While the aircraft were smaller, there were many more "mainline" destinations then as opposed to now. Even with those smaller a/c, the total number of pax was still significant.
 
IWMBH
Posts: 612
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:21 pm

''South-African government stops funding South African Airways''
https://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nieuws/ ... an-airways

This Corona crisis might be the last nail in SAA's coffin.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:30 pm

Sticking out like a sore thumb to me in terms of some airline cancellations (and lack thereof)...Alitalia is still flying FCO-JFK while all other long-haul services are canceled (it switches to an A332 next month). Is this being flown for cargo only?

Within the USA, I see a large scale retrenchment for the NW20 schedule, where I could see no routes that are non-transcon (West Coast to the East Coast) or from another major hub that overfly another hub, along with down-gauging of flights (i.e., A319 to E175).
 
AA747123
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:45 pm

Was just reading a article that AA is currently burning through $100,000,000.00 a day. Even with the $12b from the government that would give AA roughly 150 days to survive before liquidation. So AA could be no more by end of September. Sad! Who else will liquidate. WN expects to stay profitable through this pandemic, so could we only left with WN ?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 3:55 pm

AA747123 wrote:
WN expects to stay profitable through this pandemic, so could we only left with WN ?


Please, show us the source(s) where - any - WN execs said WN would be profitable.
 
ACA772LR
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:03 pm

AA747123 wrote:
Was just reading a article that AA is currently burning through $100,000,000.00 a day. Even with the $12b from the government that would give AA roughly 150 days to survive before liquidation. So AA could be no more by end of September. Sad! Who else will liquidate. WN expects to stay profitable through this pandemic, so could we only left with WN ?


Dramatic statement much? Where’s the source for said article that AA is losing $100,000,000.00/day?
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:00 pm

DOT exemption request decisions are being published.

JetBlue - DOT denied all exemption request with exception of BQN & PSE in Puerto Rico

Spirit - Approves exemptions only for ABQ, BHM, MCN, and BQN in Puerto Rico. Rest denied. DOT also orders NK to resume service at points it dropped in anticipation of exemption waivers!
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
CRJ5000
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:31 pm

LAXintl wrote:
DOT exemption request decisions are being published.

JetBlue - DOT denied all exemption request with exception of BQN & PSE in Puerto Rico

Spirit - Approves exemptions only for ABQ, BHM, MCN, and BQN in Puerto Rico. Rest denied. DOT also orders NK to resume service at points it dropped in anticipation of exemption waivers!


I hope B6 schedules IAH-DFW-ABQ-PSP-LGB and NK schedules RIC-CRW-LBE-PIT-CMH-CLE. If you're going to fly empty flights around, might as well have them be as short and useless as possible.
 
alasizon
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 5:45 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
DOT exemption request decisions are being published.

JetBlue - DOT denied all exemption request with exception of BQN & PSE in Puerto Rico

Spirit - Approves exemptions only for ABQ, BHM, MCN, and BQN in Puerto Rico. Rest denied. DOT also orders NK to resume service at points it dropped in anticipation of exemption waivers!


I hope B6 schedules IAH-DFW-ABQ-PSP-LGB and NK schedules RIC-CRW-LBE-PIT-CMH-CLE. If you're going to fly empty flights around, might as well have them be as short and useless as possible.


B6 could certainly go the tag route (JFK-IAH-DFW, JFK-ABQ-PSP) but it is going to be a lot harder for NK to run tags.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
joeblow10
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:25 pm

LAXintl wrote:
DOT exemption request decisions are being published.

JetBlue - DOT denied all exemption request with exception of BQN & PSE in Puerto Rico

Spirit - Approves exemptions only for ABQ, BHM, MCN, and BQN in Puerto Rico. Rest denied. DOT also orders NK to resume service at points it dropped in anticipation of exemption waivers!


Assuming the DOT acts with the same guidance for all decisions, a few things to note.

1. Looks like they will deny all seasonal exemption waivers that a carrier requests, since they get to choose the baseline of service. Will be interesting to see how this plays out in regard to decisions for carriers where they did not plan to open the station until June, and whether they require them to start service right away.

2. They are bowing to the requirements issued by Puerto Rico on service restrictions, so I could see that going favorably to carriers requesting exemption from Hawaii since the governor imposed restrictions and has issued letters of support to cancel service.

Overall - unless there is some highly valid reason to cancel service, looks like they will be requiring it. More milk run flights on the way!
 
JA
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:02 pm

NK got ZERO. One airport is closed and the other airports did not have NK service.
 
ltbewr
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:16 pm

Perhaps the denial of so many exemptions is due to the need for postal mail and critical supplies shipments to get through daily or most days.
 
PA12
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 7:56 pm

Spirit doesn’t fly to ABQ. B6 could add a tag on from ABQ to ELP, and get both service to ABQ (void left by WN) and to JFK. Is there any traffic between ABQ and PSP?
You would have traffic between ABQ and ELP.
 
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Web500sjc
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:39 pm

It seams “lack of demand” and/or “served by someone else” are not valid excuses. That’s a very hardline stance.


I am interested to see what happens with Hawaii, my assumption is there will be a “blanket” policy for all airlines on service between the mainland and Hawaii. I.e must continue to serve have 3 weekly flights between HNL and a mainland city on each airline.
Boiler Up!
 
tphuang
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:10 pm

Gary Kelly just said $3.2 billion they received is not enough to cover their losses and expected losses from April and May. That means they are losing $50 million a day. If my understanding of what he is saying is accurate, then WN has been burning cash at much higher rate than I expect. I can't see how airlines don't take out further loans from gov't if that's the case.
 
gdavis003
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:28 pm

LAXintl wrote:
DOT exemption request decisions are being published.

JetBlue - DOT denied all exemption request with exception of BQN & PSE in Puerto Rico

Spirit - Approves exemptions only for ABQ, BHM, MCN, and BQN in Puerto Rico. Rest denied. DOT also orders NK to resume service at points it dropped in anticipation of exemption waivers!


Spirit hasn't flown to BHM ever I don't think, maybe a while back but they definitely haven't had service to BHM in the last 10 years. Did you mean another airport?
 
tphuang
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:40 pm

More news on what big corporations are doing that will be a problem for airlines
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/zuckerb ... -2021.html
no large events until June 2021.
employees work from home through summer season
no corporate travel through June.
I would assume a lot of corporations will have similar policies. No large events until next summer means conferences and large scale corporate travel aren't going to come back next summer even.
 
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janders
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:43 pm

gdavis003 wrote:
Spirit hasn't flown to BHM ever I don't think, maybe a while back but they definitely haven't had service to BHM in the last 10 years. Did you mean another airport?


BHM is listed in the DOT service obligation list and Spirit asked DOT to remove it in their exemption application.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
gdavis003
Posts: 82
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:52 pm

janders wrote:
gdavis003 wrote:
Spirit hasn't flown to BHM ever I don't think, maybe a while back but they definitely haven't had service to BHM in the last 10 years. Did you mean another airport?


BHM is listed in the DOT service obligation list and Spirit asked DOT to remove it in their exemption application.


Why would Spirit ask DOT to remove an airport that they don't fly to? Are they seeking it on behalf of the other airlines who do fly to BHM?
 
Oilman
Posts: 94
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:31 pm

gdavis003 wrote:
Why would Spirit ask DOT to remove an airport that they don't fly to? Are they seeking it on behalf of the other airlines who do fly to BHM?


The government accidentally included BHM for Spirit in the original order and Spirit pointed it out.
 
Brickell305
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:44 am

joeblow10 wrote:
LAXintl wrote:
DOT exemption request decisions are being published.

JetBlue - DOT denied all exemption request with exception of BQN & PSE in Puerto Rico

Spirit - Approves exemptions only for ABQ, BHM, MCN, and BQN in Puerto Rico. Rest denied. DOT also orders NK to resume service at points it dropped in anticipation of exemption waivers!


Assuming the DOT acts with the same guidance for all decisions, a few things to note.

1. Looks like they will deny all seasonal exemption waivers that a carrier requests, since they get to choose the baseline of service. Will be interesting to see how this plays out in regard to decisions for carriers where they did not plan to open the station until June, and whether they require them to start service right away.

2. They are bowing to the requirements issued by Puerto Rico on service restrictions, so I could see that going favorably to carriers requesting exemption from Hawaii since the governor imposed restrictions and has issued letters of support to cancel service.

Overall - unless there is some highly valid reason to cancel service, looks like they will be requiring it. More milk run flights on the way!

They are not bowing to anything done by Puerto Rico. The FAA closed BQN and PSE to commercial traffic. I doubt anyone will be granted an exemption for an airport that remains open despite whatever stay at home order, quarantine, or travel restrictions are in place locally.
 
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ojjunior
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:01 am

Did UA quietly reinstated GRU service from IAH?
Looks like daily flights are back since Apr,10th with the original flight nbr.

Return leg is airborne as we speak:

UA63 from Sao Paulo to Houston https://fr24.com/UAL63/245e97d8
 
VS11
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:05 am

In other more hopeful news, Emirates have started testing for Covid-19 for boarding passengers.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... passengers
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 2:47 pm

ojjunior wrote:
Did UA quietly reinstated GRU service from IAH?
Looks like daily flights are back since Apr,10th with the original flight nbr.

Return leg is airborne as we speak:

UA63 from Sao Paulo to Houston https://fr24.com/UAL63/245e97d8


No not quietly. Was publicly announced in mid-March as part of their April international schedule.

https://samchui.com/2020/03/21/united-a ... pnBS8hKiUk
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
YoungDon
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 4:21 pm

CRJ5000 wrote:
I thought it was rather funny (and maybe infuriating) watching an interview with Doug Parker on CNBC today that when speaking about the loans and grants and their stipulations, he said "Its fair to say that until you've paid off the loans...that you don't have stock buybacks, dividends, that the money doesn't flow to executives, and that you have restrictions on executive compensation. We're going to find out ways around them."
Rather bold and blatant to state that they'll find ways around the stipulations such as buybacks and executive compensation.
Interview is linked below. The part about AA finding ways around the stipulations comes just after 14:30.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/15/w ... arker.html


Frankly, that's a terrible message to send. AA is already asking for employee sacrifices to get through this and it will only get worse from here. Yet here is the CEO of the airline blatantly saying that they'll find a way around executive compensation restrictions that he calls "fair" in the very next sentence. Not a good look at all.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:05 pm

YoungDon wrote:
Frankly, that's a terrible message to send. AA is already asking for employee sacrifices to get through this and it will only get worse from here. Yet here is the CEO of the airline blatantly saying that they'll find a way around executive compensation restrictions that he calls "fair" in the very next sentence. Not a good look at all.


Its a problem and airlines must compensate their management or risk losing them.

Wall Street already worried about this and mention in an investor note last week:


- Brain drain from management ranks:
Grant terms mean any non-union airline employee who made more than $425K in 2019 can’t make more than what they made in 2019 for each of the next two years. This won’t end well, and Congress has effectively shown the door to the best and brightest stewards of its own government investment. We expect this will impact employees at less stable companies more than it will and more stable ones given there is a clearer path to the other side. Airline management types get paid heavily in stock grants, which are down, of course, and limits on future pay will cause many to quit given those options may be expiring worthless over the next 1-3 years. Airline management types will be forced to work harder for less money and with less resources. If the economy recovers, many will leave, particularly those in cities with other corporate options. When the adrenaline wears off, we expect this issue will ramp in relevancy. And good luck, boards, recruiting your top executives.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 136
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:25 pm

LAXintl wrote:

Its a problem and airlines must compensate their management or risk losing them.

Wall Street already worried about this and mention in an investor note last week:


There’s definitely validity to that, but some things are better left said in a boardroom rather than a mass media outlet.
 
MohawkWeekend
Posts: 242
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Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Fri Apr 17, 2020 5:53 pm

Only delusional Wall Street would think there are going to be "Other corporate options" for poor underpaid airline senior mangers who are unhappy with their $425k ? Please.
    300 319 320 321 707 717 720 727 72S 737 73S 734 735 73G 738 739 747 757 762 ARJ B11 C212 CRJ CR2 CR7 CR9 CV5 D8S DC9 D9S D94 D95 D10 DH8 DTO EMB EM2 E135 E145 E190 FH7 F28 F100 FTRIMTR HRN L10 L15 M80 M90 SF3 SWM YS11
     
    bennett123
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:05 pm

    Amazing.

    Everyone can take a hit, that they probably can't afford. However, the masters of the universe are irreplaceable and must be shielded.

    Perhaps the true leaders need to set an example.
     
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    ojjunior
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:56 am

    Any info about reason of DL flying LAX-GRU?

    Normally this is an AA route.

    DL3303 from Los Angeles to Sao Paulo https://fr24.com/DAL3303/245fc037

    DL 3XXX flights means what?
     
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    chepos
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:03 am

    ojjunior wrote:
    Any info about reason of DL flying LAX-GRU?

    Normally this is an AA route.

    DL3303 from Los Angeles to Sao Paulo https://fr24.com/DAL3303/245fc037

    DL 3XXX flights means what?

    It appears that 4 digit numbering starting with 3 is used for DL cargo flights.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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    hoons90
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:03 am

    ojjunior wrote:
    Any info about reason of DL flying LAX-GRU?

    Normally this is an AA route.

    DL3303 from Los Angeles to Sao Paulo https://fr24.com/DAL3303/245fc037

    DL 3XXX flights means what?


    Cargo-only flights.
    DL is also doing cargo-only DTW-ICN-PVG, LAX-ICN-PVG, ORD-FRA and a few others.

    DL's only scheduled passenger long haul flights for April are ATL-AMS, DTW-AMS/ICN, SEA-HND/ICN.
    Flown: 2L 7C 9E 9L AA AB AC AF AY AZ BA BR BX B6 CA CO CP CX DL EK EY JL KE KL LA LH LX MQ NW OZ PD RW SQ TG TP TR TS US WG WN WS XE XJ
     
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    Antaras
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:48 am

    Rumors: Vietnam Airlines sets to fly non-stop (?) from Vietnam to YVR and YVZ to repatriate Vietnamese abroad students here.
    The flight would also carry relief, including thousands of masks from Vietnam.
    If it's true, this is VN's first ever civil/commercial flight connecting Vietnam-North America.
    Cre: Vietnam Aviation Forum group on Facebook
    Besides that, VN may set some more flight to the US for the same missions.

    There are more than 20000 of Vietnamese students are studying in Canada.
    In US, more than 1000 Viet-national have registered to be repatriated.
    Edit signature
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    chonetsao
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:29 am

    LAXintl wrote:
    Its a problem and airlines must compensate their management or risk losing them.

    Wall Street already worried about this and mention in an investor note last week:


    I see it as a good thing. Some airline managers have been in the business too long and their ideas are so yesterday. Maybe we finally could get rid of leeches like Doug Parker that suck the airline dry through stock options and buy backs, and get rid of the bean counters behind the idea of 30 inches seat pitch and tiny toilet designed for minions rather than people. Airlines business need a rethink and restart after COVID-19. This is the best chance to reset the downward trends in airlines. Maybe, after get rid of managers like Doug Parker and others, airlines could really be [Will Never Loose Money Again]!
     
    ProcurementGuy
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:37 am

    I think the coronavirus has come at a poor time for airlines. Had this happened twenty years ago, business travel would have rebound and everything had gone back to normal.

    But it's 2020 and deals are negotiated over mail, teleconference and Skype/Teams/etc. before being signed. I really think e-mails and the ability to share screen and have a good quality voice conference has revolutionized business in the past decade. Sure, there has been phones for over a century and fax for decades. But fax was cumbersome and old school telephone conferences with actual phones were a very frustrating experience. Video is getting better each year. It was still more of a toy five years ago.

    Having to deal with physical visits is increasingly felt to be an inefficient use of time. Certainly, in person visits are needed for formal signing ceremonies with smiley pictures. But, more often than not, it's not needed for the low level deals. Sales people like to travel, but sales isn't in the strong position it once was. The road warriors are already a dying breed. I was one for years but felt it was not the future. The balance has shifted from the selling side towards the buying side, in small steps over a long period of time. It's perhaps most pronounced in public procurement, where the law in some places has put the buyer in a very strong position, but the trend is felt in the private sector as well.

    I have a nagging feeling that business travel will never return to former levels.
     
    ltbewr
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:47 am

    Business travel, usually with higher fares, has been where airlines make their profits. Over the last 20 years, the highest end business travelers have shifted to private jets for security, productivity and compensation reasons. As others have noted, the economic and public health affects from Covid-19 pandemic have led to a total shutdown of business and all other travel and shifts to video meetings. A lot of sales are done on the internet where salespersons are no longer needed. Many companies will use this to get out of the expense of travel long-term.
    Likely, we will see some shifts to more efficient and smaller aircraft so can keep frequency but cut the overall number of seats so can increase net fares and actually make a profit. The largest aircraft will only be used at the most slot restricted airports. Tourism will have a difficult time rebounding and likely fares after an initial recovery will be much higher to meet pent up demand. There is also a possibility that taxes and fees by governments will go up to pay for recovery and for losses of revenues.
     
    Aither
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:14 pm

    ltbewr wrote:
    Business travel, usually with higher fares, has been where airlines make their profits. Over the last 20 years, the highest end business travelers have shifted to private jets for security, productivity and compensation reasons. As others have noted, the economic and public health affects from Covid-19 pandemic have led to a total shutdown of business and all other travel and shifts to video meetings. A lot of sales are done on the internet where salespersons are no longer needed. Many companies will use this to get out of the expense of travel long-term.
    Likely, we will see some shifts to more efficient and smaller aircraft so can keep frequency but cut the overall number of seats so can increase net fares and actually make a profit. The largest aircraft will only be used at the most slot restricted airports. Tourism will have a difficult time rebounding and likely fares after an initial recovery will be much higher to meet pent up demand. There is also a possibility that taxes and fees by governments will go up to pay for recovery and for losses of revenues.


    There are also elements counter balancing your point of views :

    - First video meeting is not a new thing. For the vast majority of meetings, and for some cultures more than other, physical meetings will remain needed. Also as there is an opinion of being less economically dependent toward China we will see more manufactures in different parts of the world. This only should at least offset the decrease of business travel because of video conferencing.

    - Smaller markets are likely to suffer more. This will lead to consolidation in term of routes, hubs, maybe airlines. Even if the overall volume of traffic decreases, its concentration will have a much deeper impact. This could least to much less demand for the smaller jets and increased, or stable demand for larger jet after the initial shock. It's hard to say, it's probably going to be different for each market. But on a global basis, I don't think there are more rationales to go for smaller aircraft than to go for bigger aircraft. If I had to choose, my take would be on larger aircraft. At least higher seat density for sure.
    Never trust the obvious
     
    MIflyer12
    Posts: 7744
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:21 pm

    MohawkWeekend wrote:
    Only delusional Wall Street would think there are going to be "Other corporate options" for poor underpaid airline senior mangers who are unhappy with their $425k ? Please.


    You may be grossly unfamiliar with typical Fortune 50 board compensation. Parker could get two board slots, work six hours a day 30 days a year, and make more than $425K.
     
    joeblow10
    Posts: 381
    Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:27 pm

    ltbewr wrote:
    Business travel, usually with higher fares, has been where airlines make their profits. Over the last 20 years, the highest end business travelers have shifted to private jets for security, productivity and compensation reasons. As others have noted, the economic and public health affects from Covid-19 pandemic have led to a total shutdown of business and all other travel and shifts to video meetings. A lot of sales are done on the internet where salespersons are no longer needed. Many companies will use this to get out of the expense of travel long-term.
    Likely, we will see some shifts to more efficient and smaller aircraft so can keep frequency but cut the overall number of seats so can increase net fares and actually make a profit. The largest aircraft will only be used at the most slot restricted airports. Tourism will have a difficult time rebounding and likely fares after an initial recovery will be much higher to meet pent up demand. There is also a possibility that taxes and fees by governments will go up to pay for recovery and for losses of revenues.


    This... right here, full stop.

    There is no doubt some meetings in person will pick up and continue when this is over, but as companies have finally been forced to go with the virtual work option, they’re discovering it isn’t so bad. My current employer was generally staunchly opposed to telecommuting, I would be a bit surprised if they feel the same way after this is over given how well it has gone thus far.

    Leisure travel will no doubt pick up again when this is over, but the longer this goes on, I don’t think business travel will ever get back to the level it was at, and that could really eat into the bottom line of airlines that rely heavily on corporate revenues. Companies are realizing those “essential” trips and meetings weren’t so essential after all.
     
    chonetsao
    Posts: 591
    Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:46 pm

    ltbewr wrote:
    Business travel, usually with higher fares, has been where airlines make their profits. Over the last 20 years, the highest end business travelers have shifted to private jets for security, productivity and compensation reasons.


    Are you confused the term of {Business travel} with {Venture Capital Executive Travel} and {Billionaire Founders Travel}?
     
    frmrCapCadet
    Posts: 4090
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:13 pm

    Maybe the fond hope of some of us will be realized, 10-15% more space for 20% or less more money. I still think that airlines deliberately made economy uncomfortable to encourage business class people to upgrade.
    Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
     
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    readytotaxi
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:28 pm

    aemoreira1981 wrote:
    Sticking out like a sore thumb to me in terms of some airline cancellations (and lack thereof)...Alitalia is still flying FCO-JFK while all other long-haul services are canceled (it switches to an A332 next month). Is this being flown for cargo only?

    ).

    This is a Ghost flight, since Alitalia have been dead for ages. :rotfl:
    you don't get a second chance to make a first impression!
    Growing older, but not up.
     
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    DrPaul
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 3:18 pm

    According to this report https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/small-planes-and-no-business-class-will-flying-ever-be-the-same-again-covid-19, aviation consultant Andrew Charlton reckons that the Corona Crisis will lead to the demise of most airlines' A380s and the Boeing 747 as a whole, saying 'You will never see a 747 flying again, and the only A380s will have Emirates painted on the side.' (I presume he means passenger variants of the 747, not the freighters.) If what he predicts is true, and smaller planes will become the norm, this would also put a shadow over the future of the 777-9.

    Is this a reasonably realistic prediction, or is he a bit on the pessimistic side?
     
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    eta unknown
    Posts: 2803
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:32 pm

    aemoreira1981 wrote:
    Sticking out like a sore thumb to me in terms of some airline cancellations (and lack thereof)...Alitalia is still flying FCO-JFK while all other long-haul services are canceled (it switches to an A332 next month). Is this being flown for cargo only?


    The AZ FCO-JFK flight has been operating almost daily and seems to switch between a 330/772/773. You can buy seats on the AZ website- about 350 euros one way for travel next week.
     
    ltbewr
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:48 pm

    DrPaul wrote:
    According to this report https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/small-planes-and-no-business-class-will-flying-ever-be-the-same-again-covid-19, aviation consultant Andrew Charlton reckons that the Corona Crisis will lead to the demise of most airlines' A380s and the Boeing 747 as a whole, saying 'You will never see a 747 flying again, and the only A380s will have Emirates painted on the side.' (I presume he means passenger variants of the 747, not the freighters.) If what he predicts is true, and smaller planes will become the norm, this would also put a shadow over the future of the 777-9.

    Is this a reasonably realistic prediction, or is he a bit on the pessimistic side?

    I think it is partially realistic, but as to the 777-9 for pax use, its initial future is still in flux, it might be at least 2Q 2023 before any need or deliveries. That is has 2 engines, 'right size' for many high demand and long routes, there will still be some need for large pax aircraft albeit not as large as the 747/A380 will still give it a chance. The A380 but for a few routes and a few operators like Emirates, will be gone for most airliners, for sure older 747 pax versions will disappear more quickly than expected, only a few to freighters.
     
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    aemoreira1981
    Posts: 3530
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    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:01 pm

    ltbewr wrote:
    DrPaul wrote:
    According to this report https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/small-planes-and-no-business-class-will-flying-ever-be-the-same-again-covid-19, aviation consultant Andrew Charlton reckons that the Corona Crisis will lead to the demise of most airlines' A380s and the Boeing 747 as a whole, saying 'You will never see a 747 flying again, and the only A380s will have Emirates painted on the side.' (I presume he means passenger variants of the 747, not the freighters.) If what he predicts is true, and smaller planes will become the norm, this would also put a shadow over the future of the 777-9.

    Is this a reasonably realistic prediction, or is he a bit on the pessimistic side?

    I think it is partially realistic, but as to the 777-9 for pax use, its initial future is still in flux, it might be at least 2Q 2023 before any need or deliveries. That is has 2 engines, 'right size' for many high demand and long routes, there will still be some need for large pax aircraft albeit not as large as the 747/A380 will still give it a chance. The A380 but for a few routes and a few operators like Emirates, will be gone for most airliners, for sure older 747 pax versions will disappear more quickly than expected, only a few to freighters.


    Also, the 777X isn't really a super-jumbo. The 777-8 might get more sales though; keep in mind that the Boeing 777X will maintain the same MTOW as the B77W (351.5 metric tons)...and so it won't be a jumbo but rather a "big twin". The B77L/W would also supplant the B744 as a freighter, especially for those not needing nose-loading capabilities.
     
    chonetsao
    Posts: 591
    Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:33 pm

    DrPaul wrote:
    According to this report https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/small-planes-and-no-business-class-will-flying-ever-be-the-same-again-covid-19, aviation consultant Andrew Charlton reckons that the Corona Crisis will lead to the demise of most airlines' A380s and the Boeing 747 as a whole, saying 'You will never see a 747 flying again, and the only A380s will have Emirates painted on the side.' (I presume he means passenger variants of the 747, not the freighters.) If what he predicts is true, and smaller planes will become the norm, this would also put a shadow over the future of the 777-9.

    Is this a reasonably realistic prediction, or is he a bit on the pessimistic side?


    You know, it is really funny that a B748 with upper deck in 40J configuration and lower deck full cargo or partial passenger between door 1LR and 2LR would be perfect for today's intercontinental flight demand.

    But back to your question, I think B744's day is numbered. B748 would stay stay around for a decade both with Air China and Lufthansa. A380 will be winded down slowly but safe to say we will see them flying beyond 2025.
     
    Aither
    Posts: 1284
    Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

    Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

    Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:01 pm

    DrPaul wrote:
    According to this report https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/small-planes-and-no-business-class-will-flying-ever-be-the-same-again-covid-19, aviation consultant Andrew Charlton reckons that the Corona Crisis will lead to the demise of most airlines' A380s and the Boeing 747 as a whole, saying 'You will never see a 747 flying again, and the only A380s will have Emirates painted on the side.' (I presume he means passenger variants of the 747, not the freighters.) If what he predicts is true, and smaller planes will become the norm, this would also put a shadow over the future of the 777-9.

    Is this a reasonably realistic prediction, or is he a bit on the pessimistic side?


    My only comments is : 20 years ago international air travel was 3 times smaller, and yet aircraft were bigger....
    Never trust the obvious

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