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trex8
Posts: 5586
Joined: Sat Nov 02, 2002 9:04 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 18, 2020 6:45 pm

Not sure if this should be in this thread or the cargo related covid ones

BR monthly financials
https://www.evaair.com/images/englobal/ ... -71294.pdf

pax down 2/3 from 2019 in March as one might expect but cargo tons only down 7%, FTK down 10% but cargo revenue up 21%!

Can't wait to see what CI report, 1/3 of their revenue is cargo compared to 20% for BR.
 
dcajet
Posts: 4708
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:04 pm

Qantas will return to Argentina on April 25th with a nonstop flight between EZE and MEL, operated with a 787-9.

https://twitter.com/SpottersArg/status/ ... 6308463624
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 940
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:11 pm

DrPaul wrote:
According to this report https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/small-planes-and-no-business-class-will-flying-ever-be-the-same-again-covid-19, aviation consultant Andrew Charlton reckons that the Corona Crisis will lead to the demise of most airlines' A380s and the Boeing 747 as a whole, saying 'You will never see a 747 flying again, and the only A380s will have Emirates painted on the side.' (I presume he means passenger variants of the 747, not the freighters.) If what he predicts is true, and smaller planes will become the norm, this would also put a shadow over the future of the 777-9.

Is this a reasonably realistic prediction, or is he a bit on the pessimistic side?

I see demand for smaller end jets like the 175-e2 to explode. The days of packing as many heads as you can into ever larger planes is over for the next five years, at least, on anything but Domestic and International trunk routes, IMHO.
 
MontyP
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:50 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:02 pm

BA have been flying a number of repatriation flights from India to the UK over the last few days (finally) with more to come. I noticed that a number of these are flying via Bahrain both outbound and return - is this for refuelling / crew changes due to restrictions in India ?
 
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Phosphorus
Posts: 1035
Joined: Tue May 16, 2017 11:38 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:08 pm

If "social distancing" is enforced aboard airplanes, expect 737 and 320 to be preferred types, as they lose only 33% of seats, if the rule is "no pax in adjacent seats". Compared to 50% seat loss in EMB-170/175/190/195 or 40% seat loss in A220, it's not too bad.
Heck, even ERJ would suddenly make sense again, with 33% seat loss, compared to 50% seat loss on CRJ's (except CRJ's with First, like CRJ550, where ratio is a little lower).
AN4 A40 L4T TU3 TU5 IL6 ILW I93 F50 F70 100 146 ARJ AT7 DH4 L10 CRJ ERJ E90 E95 DC-9 MD-8X YK4 YK2 SF3 S20 319 320 321 332 333 343 346 722 732 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 74M 757 767 777
Ceterum autem censeo, Moscovia esse delendam
 
MartijnNL
Posts: 999
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:44 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 18, 2020 10:14 pm

Mortyman wrote:
Video of parked SAS, Norwegian and other airlines parked at Copenhagen airport:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Gl08upuEyY

this is just sad to watch ...

This reminds me of my planespotting holiday at Copenhagen Airport in 2010. Shortly after landing almost the entire European airspace closed because of the ashcloud of an Icelandic volcano. Stayed five nights at the Hilton Airport Hotel (now Clarion) with a great view of the terminal building and all the gates. Not a single aircraft moved during that time. Had to take a train back home.

Unfortunately the current shutdown will have a much greater effect on airlines and the economy.
 
Aither
Posts: 1300
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sat Apr 18, 2020 11:15 pm

Social distancing inside the aircraft does not make sense. It would be purely for communication purpose.
Aviation will restart where schools will also restart, basically where social distancing will no longer be an absolute requirement.
What could be required however, is to wear masks all the time, plus deep cleaning of the cabin after each flight. Exactly like they are doing between classrooms.

The general opinion was that air travel in Asia will recover first but I'm increasingly wondering it this will be true considering the different approaches to deal with the virus :
A- countries that are targeting zero contamination (Asia).
B- countries that are only targeting not having their hospitals overwhelmed (USA, Europe, etc.) and will mostly focus their efforts on protecting people at risk.
The B scenario does not prevent air travel. There could be just temporary bans in areas where hospitals are at max capacity.
Never trust the obvious
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2255
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 1:31 am

joeblow10 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
Business travel, usually with higher fares, has been where airlines make their profits. Over the last 20 years, the highest end business travelers have shifted to private jets for security, productivity and compensation reasons. As others have noted, the economic and public health affects from Covid-19 pandemic have led to a total shutdown of business and all other travel and shifts to video meetings. A lot of sales are done on the internet where salespersons are no longer needed. Many companies will use this to get out of the expense of travel long-term.
Likely, we will see some shifts to more efficient and smaller aircraft so can keep frequency but cut the overall number of seats so can increase net fares and actually make a profit. The largest aircraft will only be used at the most slot restricted airports. Tourism will have a difficult time rebounding and likely fares after an initial recovery will be much higher to meet pent up demand. There is also a possibility that taxes and fees by governments will go up to pay for recovery and for losses of revenues.


This... right here, full stop.

There is no doubt some meetings in person will pick up and continue when this is over, but as companies have finally been forced to go with the virtual work option, they’re discovering it isn’t so bad. My current employer was generally staunchly opposed to telecommuting, I would be a bit surprised if they feel the same way after this is over given how well it has gone thus far.

Leisure travel will no doubt pick up again when this is over, but the longer this goes on, I don’t think business travel will ever get back to the level it was at, and that could really eat into the bottom line of airlines that rely heavily on corporate revenues. Companies are realizing those “essential” trips and meetings weren’t so essential after all.


So true., It appears that corporations will be more sending a couple of senior executives to a major meeting that is 1/3 in person, 2/3 by teleconference, possibly even more toward tele confrerence with only the head table meeting in person. At the in progress meeting company local execs / sales will be the in person's together, if that, with probably the majority of meetings being virtual, look at how many two days from the office are done for a 2 hour meeting or two. That is ending. Corporate travel budgets will be half per revenue $ as before, and revenues are down too.

Corporate Jets usually do badly in recessions, it is horrible optics for the CEO to be seen doing 'lavish' travel right after he laid off 3,000 workers.
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1388
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 1:41 am

Social distancing won't even be needed on plans because it'll happen naturally as it'll be a while before loads are even enough to warrant conscious separation efforts.
 
coairman
Posts: 167
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 2010 8:31 am

Is AA’s Doug Parker way too optimistic?

Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:55 am

I watched The CEO of AA’s video and he seemed rather optimistic compared to DL and UA in terms of the COVID19 effects on the airline industry.....is this just blowing smoke or is he on to something as far being able to recover in a robust way ...


See the link below:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... nd-united/
The views I express are of my own, and not the company I work for.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 2941
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: Is AA’s Doug Parker way too optimistic?

Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:59 am

Incoming “we’ll never lose money again” comments
 
airtran737
Posts: 3483
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2004 3:47 am

Re: Is AA’s Doug Parker way too optimistic?

Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:05 am

Doug is great at mergers but sucks at running the airline after. Through all of this mess there’s an opportunity to reinvent the product and airline. What’s Doug doing? Looking for ways around the Treasury regulations and fitting more planes with Oasis. Doug will put AA into bankruptcy again.
Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
 
Silver1SWA
Posts: 4703
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 6:11 pm

Re: Is AA’s Doug Parker way too optimistic?

Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:10 am

coairman wrote:
I watched The CEO of AA’s video and he seemed rather optimistic compared to DL and UA in terms of the COVID19 effects on the airline industry.....is this just blowing smoke or is he on to something as far being able to recover in a robust way ...


See the link below:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... nd-united/


I find his optimism, realistic or not, to be refreshing.
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
coairman
Posts: 167
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 2010 8:31 am

Re: Is AA’s Doug Parker way too optimistic?

Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:56 am

Silver1SWA wrote:
coairman wrote:
I watched The CEO of AA’s video and he seemed rather optimistic compared to DL and UA in terms of the COVID19 effects on the airline industry.....is this just blowing smoke or is he on to something as far being able to recover in a robust way ...


See the link below:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... nd-united/


I find his optimism, realistic or not, to be refreshing.


Yes, refreshing and positive is much needed now, but when you look at the empty flights and demand down over 90%, along with potential massive airline worker layoffs October 1st, it’s hard to be realistically positive...
The views I express are of my own, and not the company I work for.
 
coairman
Posts: 167
Joined: Sun Dec 12, 2010 8:31 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:59 am

Does anyone know why all COVID19 topics are consolidated into one thread? Seems ridiculous, especially how it effects so many different airlines, but not all airlines are equal in terms of challenges of geopolitical and geographical regions..
The views I express are of my own, and not the company I work for.
 
Chemist
Posts: 761
Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 4:46 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 5:20 am

I noticed that today (Saturday) mid-day on flightware, there were more Piper Cherokees airborne than 737-800s, and the most prevalent airborne aircraft type was the Cessna 172. Strange times.
 
sabby
Posts: 452
Joined: Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:11 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:58 am

Phosphorus wrote:
If "social distancing" is enforced aboard airplanes, expect 737 and 320 to be preferred types, as they lose only 33% of seats, if the rule is "no pax in adjacent seats". Compared to 50% seat loss in EMB-170/175/190/195 or 40% seat loss in A220, it's not too bad.
Heck, even ERJ would suddenly make sense again, with 33% seat loss, compared to 50% seat loss on CRJ's (except CRJ's with First, like CRJ550, where ratio is a little lower).


If the rule is an empty seat between passenger, then may as well fill every seats as possible as that is useless. General advisory is 2m / 6' distance between two persons. In A320/B737, that would mean 40 or less people in all economy configuration. Not impossible if they can charge 3x to cover for operational costs and add some belly cargo. I'd assume people who would really need to fly for business might be able to fork up 3x fares. A more practical solution would be to make wearing masks and gloves mandatory and deep cleaning after every flight as someone else already suggested. Load factors would be low enough to have empty seats between passengers anyway for some time.
 
AirbusOnly
Posts: 410
Joined: Fri Jun 02, 2006 4:06 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:37 am

DrPaul wrote:
According to this report https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/small-planes-and-no-business-class-will-flying-ever-be-the-same-again-covid-19, aviation consultant Andrew Charlton reckons that the Corona Crisis will lead to the demise of most airlines' A380s and the Boeing 747 as a whole, saying 'You will never see a 747 flying again, and the only A380s will have Emirates painted on the side.' (I presume he means passenger variants of the 747, not the freighters.) If what he predicts is true, and smaller planes will become the norm, this would also put a shadow over the future of the 777-9.

Is this a reasonably realistic prediction, or is he a bit on the pessimistic side?


Agree! Even if it is hard to accept for us aviation enthusiasts, but I think we have to say goodbye to the air traffic we knew before Corona. Nothing will ever be the same again. COVID 19 will occupy the world for a long time to come and will have a lasting effect on traffic flows and tourism - in this case negatively. Aircraft in the sizes A 380, A346, B747, B777 will no longer be needed because they will be difficult to fill. The future belongs to the longrange narrowbody, such as the A321neoXLR or, with some restrictions, the B 737 MAX, if it will ever fly again. We will see how other big airlines, especially EMIRATES with its fleet consisting only of widebodies, will operate in the future. Only my opion, hope I will be wrong.,
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Is AA’s Doug Parker way too optimistic?

Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:19 am

coairman wrote:
I watched The CEO of AA’s video and he seemed rather optimistic compared to DL and UA in terms of the COVID19 effects on the airline industry.....is this just blowing smoke or is he on to something as far being able to recover in a robust way ...


See the link below:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... nd-united/

Aa employees should really be afraid that this is the guy leading them through the largest aviation downturn in decades.
 
FlyingHonu001
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 11:25 am

AirbusOnly wrote:
DrPaul wrote:
According to this report https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/small-planes-and-no-business-class-will-flying-ever-be-the-same-again-covid-19, aviation consultant Andrew Charlton reckons that the Corona Crisis will lead to the demise of most airlines' A380s and the Boeing 747 as a whole, saying 'You will never see a 747 flying again, and the only A380s will have Emirates painted on the side.' (I presume he means passenger variants of the 747, not the freighters.) If what he predicts is true, and smaller planes will become the norm, this would also put a shadow over the future of the 777-9.

Is this a reasonably realistic prediction, or is he a bit on the pessimistic side?


Agree! Even if it is hard to accept for us aviation enthusiasts, but I think we have to say goodbye to the air traffic we knew before Corona. Nothing will ever be the same again. COVID 19 will occupy the world for a long time to come and will have a lasting effect on traffic flows and tourism - in this case negatively. Aircraft in the sizes A 380, A346, B747, B777 will no longer be needed because they will be difficult to fill. The future belongs to the longrange narrowbody, such as the A321neoXLR or, with some restrictions, the B 737 MAX, if it will ever fly again. We will see how other big airlines, especially EMIRATES with its fleet consisting only of widebodies, will operate in the future. Only my opion, hope I will be wrong.,


CEO of AMS also believes it will take up to three years to return the airport back to pre-crisis capacity and traffic levels
Source: https://www.trouw.nl/economie/schipholb ... ~b5ed111b/ (via Google translate)
 
Aither
Posts: 1300
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

Re: Is AA’s Doug Parker way too optimistic?

Sun Apr 19, 2020 2:33 pm

Silver1SWA wrote:
I find his optimism, realistic or not, to be refreshing.


Yes, it's good to hear that. It's always the same story with the crisis:
- Before the crisis people minimize the impacts
- During the crisis it's always the "end of the world", "it will never be the same"
- After the crisis the same people will explain that tomorrow's fortune are made during crisis and they will blame people for being too pessimistic and not ready enough for the recovery

The same pattern was observed during 9/11 , SARS, the subprime crisis.

In the meantime, today, Chinese are looking to buy Virgin Australia. And probably other carriers in the months to come.
Never trust the obvious
 
LightningZ71
Posts: 563
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:59 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:10 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
Business travel, usually with higher fares, has been where airlines make their profits. Over the last 20 years, the highest end business travelers have shifted to private jets for security, productivity and compensation reasons. As others have noted, the economic and public health affects from Covid-19 pandemic have led to a total shutdown of business and all other travel and shifts to video meetings. A lot of sales are done on the internet where salespersons are no longer needed. Many companies will use this to get out of the expense of travel long-term.
Likely, we will see some shifts to more efficient and smaller aircraft so can keep frequency but cut the overall number of seats so can increase net fares and actually make a profit. The largest aircraft will only be used at the most slot restricted airports. Tourism will have a difficult time rebounding and likely fares after an initial recovery will be much higher to meet pent up demand. There is also a possibility that taxes and fees by governments will go up to pay for recovery and for losses of revenues.


This... right here, full stop.

There is no doubt some meetings in person will pick up and continue when this is over, but as companies have finally been forced to go with the virtual work option, they’re discovering it isn’t so bad. My current employer was generally staunchly opposed to telecommuting, I would be a bit surprised if they feel the same way after this is over given how well it has gone thus far.

Leisure travel will no doubt pick up again when this is over, but the longer this goes on, I don’t think business travel will ever get back to the level it was at, and that could really eat into the bottom line of airlines that rely heavily on corporate revenues. Companies are realizing those “essential” trips and meetings weren’t so essential after all.


So true., It appears that corporations will be more sending a couple of senior executives to a major meeting that is 1/3 in person, 2/3 by teleconference, possibly even more toward tele confrerence with only the head table meeting in person. At the in progress meeting company local execs / sales will be the in person's together, if that, with probably the majority of meetings being virtual, look at how many two days from the office are done for a 2 hour meeting or two. That is ending. Corporate travel budgets will be half per revenue $ as before, and revenues are down too.

Corporate Jets usually do badly in recessions, it is horrible optics for the CEO to be seen doing 'lavish' travel right after he laid off 3,000 workers.


On the contrary, in the COVID era, corporate jets will likely see a resurgence as they can be sold as socially responsible by limiting potential transmission vectors due to smaller crews, smaller occupancy, and keeping known healthy people together.

I also feel that regular commercial will have vastly reduced schedules, making quick travel more difficult. Whereas before, many cities had non-stop service to many destinations, going forward, it'll be heavily hub and spoke, meaning that a lot of travel will be origin-hub-hub-destination. What would have taken a few hours could require an overnight layover. Fractional corporate jet usage would eliminate the overnight and most of those hops.
 
davidjohnson6
Posts: 896
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:10 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:03 pm

Any forecast on regular commercial flying beyond 12 months, depends very heavily on what medical research comes up with.
a) If a cure / vaccine exists and can be deployed to billions of people cheaply and quickly - airlines can make a good attempt at a return to normal
b) If there is (ideally) a reliable+quick+cheap antibody test and immunity post infection is long lasting - airlines can make a (very) slow attempt at a return to normal while the disease works its way through the world's population
c) If there is no cure / vaccine and immunity post-infection is not long lasting - airlines are screwed

The world would like to believe it is in state b) and hopes to achieve state a), but there is the occasional worrying bit of news suggesting we are in state c)
Yes, there will be more subtle variations on the above, but long term (i.e. beyond 2 years) speculation on what commercial aviation will look like is, IMHO, extremely difficult without a better understanding from the medical standpoint
Last edited by davidjohnson6 on Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:15 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 15274
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:13 pm

Airports and their operators/owners including national and local governments will be in very dire financial situations for at least the next 2 years as sales, income, and other tax revenues, space lease fees (like from concessions in terminals, car rentals,) fees from corporate and government management agency operators have collapsed and continue well below pre-Coviid-19 levels. I expect many plans for construction expansion, renovations of terminals and facilities but for maintenance will be suspended or withdrawn until the revenues recover, likely 3-5 years.
 
alasizon
Posts: 2606
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2007 8:57 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 4:26 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Airports and their operators/owners including national and local governments will be in very dire financial situations for at least the next 2 years as sales, income, and other tax revenues, space lease fees (like from concessions in terminals, car rentals,) fees from corporate and government management agency operators have collapsed and continue well below pre-Coviid-19 levels. I expect many plans for construction expansion, renovations of terminals and facilities but for maintenance will be suspended or withdrawn until the revenues recover, likely 3-5 years.


A lot of the larger size airports in the US are getting sizeable grant money from the FAA and as best as I can tell for most of them it is a pretty decent size chunk of change. Some rough math on some of the big hubs shows it is about the same as their annual PFC income pro-rated for the remaining 9 months of the year.

A lot of the retailers inside the airport are still paying some portion of their rent so the loss is mostly rental car related (most of the taxes and fees there go back to the city/county/state as opposed to the airport operating budget though) as well as any deals they cut with the airlines on their leasehold space.
Airport (noun) - A construction site which airplanes tend to frequent
 
MRYapproach
Posts: 105
Joined: Thu Sep 15, 2016 3:10 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:13 pm

coairman wrote:
Does anyone know why all COVID19 topics are consolidated into one thread? Seems ridiculous, especially how it effects so many different airlines, but not all airlines are equal in terms of challenges of geopolitical and geographical regions..


I like it. saves me the trouble of reading different threads. For the most part, there isn't much to talk about that isn't related to COVID-19.
 
dcajet
Posts: 4708
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:40 pm

A regular operator at EZE, Edelweiss operated today a repatriation flight for Swiss citizens. A343 HB-JMF left EZE with 305 paxs on board, as WK2097.
Keep calm and wash your hands.
 
ProcurementGuy
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed Aug 07, 2019 10:07 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 8:24 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Any forecast on regular commercial flying beyond 12 months, depends very heavily on what medical research comes up with.
a) If a cure / vaccine exists and can be deployed to billions of people cheaply and quickly - airlines can make a good attempt at a return to normal
b) If there is (ideally) a reliable+quick+cheap antibody test and immunity post infection is long lasting - airlines can make a (very) slow attempt at a return to normal while the disease works its way through the world's population
c) If there is no cure / vaccine and immunity post-infection is not long lasting - airlines are screwed


There is also another possibility:

d) There is no long-lasting vaccine or immunity. People come to accept that those around them sometimes die from the disease and that they may themselves die one day.

This is the way we look at car accidents and cancer. People will accept the risk to fly and die, just like they accept the risk of getting killed by crossing the street or having a smoke. In fact, I think this is a very realistic scenario.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 439
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:05 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Any forecast on regular commercial flying beyond 12 months, depends very heavily on what medical research comes up with.
a) If a cure / vaccine exists and can be deployed to billions of people cheaply and quickly - airlines can make a good attempt at a return to normal
b) If there is (ideally) a reliable+quick+cheap antibody test and immunity post infection is long lasting - airlines can make a (very) slow attempt at a return to normal while the disease works its way through the world's population
c) If there is no cure / vaccine and immunity post-infection is not long lasting - airlines are screwed

The world would like to believe it is in state b) and hopes to achieve state a), but there is the occasional worrying bit of news suggesting we are in state c)
Yes, there will be more subtle variations on the above, but long term (i.e. beyond 2 years) speculation on what commercial aviation will look like is, IMHO, extremely difficult without a better understanding from the medical standpoint


If Option C becomes the reality - the airlines will be the least of our concerns. Might as well go raid Universal for their Mad Max dune buggies... you’ll probably find those come in handy
 
pablo359
Posts: 19
Joined: Fri Jan 27, 2017 11:47 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:11 pm

IB will fly to SYD on April 30th for a repatriation flight. Wonder if they will take one of the new A350s or will stick to the A332 as in most other repatriation flights this week.
 
FlyingHonu001
Posts: 191
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2020 2:33 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 12:22 pm

ltbewr wrote:
Airports and their operators/owners including national and local governments will be in very dire financial situations for at least the next 2 years as sales, income, and other tax revenues, space lease fees (like from concessions in terminals, car rentals,) fees from corporate and government management agency operators have collapsed and continue well below pre-Coviid-19 levels. I expect many plans for construction expansion, renovations of terminals and facilities but for maintenance will be suspended or withdrawn until the revenues recover, likely 3-5 years.


AMS is indeed adjusting their construction projects and using the downtime to deal with much needed maintenance.

Source: https://news.schiphol.com/schiphol-adju ... us-crisis/
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 4328
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:48 pm

ProcurementGuy wrote:
davidjohnson6 wrote:
Any forecast on regular commercial flying beyond 12 months, depends very heavily on what medical research comes up with.
a) If a cure / vaccine exists and can be deployed to billions of people cheaply and quickly - airlines can make a good attempt at a return to normal
b) If there is (ideally) a reliable+quick+cheap antibody test and immunity post infection is long lasting - airlines can make a (very) slow attempt at a return to normal while the disease works its way through the world's population
c) If there is no cure / vaccine and immunity post-infection is not long lasting - airlines are screwed


There is also another possibility:

d) There is no long-lasting vaccine or immunity. People come to accept that those around them sometimes die from the disease and that they may themselves die one day.

This is the way we look at car accidents and cancer. People will accept the risk to fly and die, just like they accept the risk of getting killed by crossing the street or having a smoke. In fact, I think this is a very realistic scenario.


d) would entail some sort of social distancing and approved mask wearing, monitoring and testing to control the number of people needing hospitalization. To some degree this is where we are now. I think we are in position to start people back to work. It needs to be done carefully, and assume that a lot of employers will want to cheat. Big problem.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
User avatar
LAXintl
Posts: 24712
Joined: Wed May 24, 2000 12:12 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:07 pm

More DOT Exemption decisions published.

Alaska
> Approved temporary suspension at KOA, LIH and OGG.
> Approved temp suspension till May 20 at SUN

Delta
> Approved temp suspension at Cody until May22
> Approved temp suspension at Ketchikan, Juneau and Sitka Apr17-Jun8 and Sep1-30
> Approved temp suspension at Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket Apr17-Jun26 and Sep8-30
> Dismissed exemption at West Yellowstone and Cedar City due EAS commitment
> Defers decision on STT and STX

Hawaiian
> Approved temp suspension at BOS, LAS, JFK, PHX, PDX, SMF, SAN, SAN and SEA
> Conditional approval temp suspension at Lahaina so long as service commitment met at OGG instead
> Approved temp suspension at PPG until Jun01

OST-2020-0037
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
LNCS0930
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:17 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 4:15 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
davidjohnson6 wrote:
Any forecast on regular commercial flying beyond 12 months, depends very heavily on what medical research comes up with.
a) If a cure / vaccine exists and can be deployed to billions of people cheaply and quickly - airlines can make a good attempt at a return to normal
b) If there is (ideally) a reliable+quick+cheap antibody test and immunity post infection is long lasting - airlines can make a (very) slow attempt at a return to normal while the disease works its way through the world's population
c) If there is no cure / vaccine and immunity post-infection is not long lasting - airlines are screwed

The world would like to believe it is in state b) and hopes to achieve state a), but there is the occasional worrying bit of news suggesting we are in state c)
Yes, there will be more subtle variations on the above, but long term (i.e. beyond 2 years) speculation on what commercial aviation will look like is, IMHO, extremely difficult without a better understanding from the medical standpoint


If Option C becomes the reality - the airlines will be the least of our concerns. Might as well go raid Universal for their Mad Max dune buggies... you’ll probably find those come in handy


People will just learn to accept it. If they announce in the fall it will be several years til a vaccine people will initially split into the I'm moving on group and the I'm not going anywhere for 5 years group. After 6 months to a year all will join the first group
 
smokeybandit
Posts: 1388
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:24 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 5:55 pm

The price of oil plummeted today. How does that affect jet fuel?

https://twitter.com/business/status/1252289286789095426
 
tphuang
Posts: 5331
Joined: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:04 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 6:28 pm

Man, how could've seen negative oil prices. Insane.
 
LJ
Posts: 5354
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 7:52 pm

smokeybandit wrote:
The price of oil plummeted today. How does that affect jet fuel?

https://twitter.com/business/status/1252289286789095426


Nothing. This is a technical price, tomorrow it will be around USD 20.
 
CRJ5000
Posts: 147
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 3:06 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Mon Apr 20, 2020 11:51 pm

After holding out for a bit, it looks like Spirit is about to take the government money as well.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronaviru ... story.html
 
ACA772LR
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:55 pm

Re: Is AA’s Doug Parker way too optimistic?

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:35 am

Aither wrote:
Silver1SWA wrote:
I find his optimism, realistic or not, to be refreshing.


Yes, it's good to hear that. It's always the same story with the crisis:
- Before the crisis people minimize the impacts
- During the crisis it's always the "end of the world", "it will never be the same"
- After the crisis the same people will explain that tomorrow's fortune are made during crisis and they will blame people for being too pessimistic and not ready enough for the recovery

The same pattern was observed during 9/11 , SARS, the subprime crisis.

In the meantime, today, Chinese are looking to buy Virgin Australia. And probably other carriers in the months to come.


Amen, truth is is no one knows, people in general aren’t good with uncertainty so they try to fill in the uncertainty with what they believe is true to make it less uncertain
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 940
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:49 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
joeblow10 wrote:
ltbewr wrote:
Business travel, usually with higher fares, has been where airlines make their profits. Over the last 20 years, the highest end business travelers have shifted to private jets for security, productivity and compensation reasons. As others have noted, the economic and public health affects from Covid-19 pandemic have led to a total shutdown of business and all other travel and shifts to video meetings. A lot of sales are done on the internet where salespersons are no longer needed. Many companies will use this to get out of the expense of travel long-term.
Likely, we will see some shifts to more efficient and smaller aircraft so can keep frequency but cut the overall number of seats so can increase net fares and actually make a profit. The largest aircraft will only be used at the most slot restricted airports. Tourism will have a difficult time rebounding and likely fares after an initial recovery will be much higher to meet pent up demand. There is also a possibility that taxes and fees by governments will go up to pay for recovery and for losses of revenues.


This... right here, full stop.

There is no doubt some meetings in person will pick up and continue when this is over, but as companies have finally been forced to go with the virtual work option, they’re discovering it isn’t so bad. My current employer was generally staunchly opposed to telecommuting, I would be a bit surprised if they feel the same way after this is over given how well it has gone thus far.

Leisure travel will no doubt pick up again when this is over, but the longer this goes on, I don’t think business travel will ever get back to the level it was at, and that could really eat into the bottom line of airlines that rely heavily on corporate revenues. Companies are realizing those “essential” trips and meetings weren’t so essential after all.


So true., It appears that corporations will be more sending a couple of senior executives to a major meeting that is 1/3 in person, 2/3 by teleconference, possibly even more toward tele confrerence with only the head table meeting in person. At the in progress meeting company local execs / sales will be the in person's together, if that, with probably the majority of meetings being virtual, look at how many two days from the office are done for a 2 hour meeting or two. That is ending. Corporate travel budgets will be half per revenue $ as before, and revenues are down too.

Corporate Jets usually do badly in recessions, it is horrible optics for the CEO to be seen doing 'lavish' travel right after he laid off 3,000 workers.

Corporate jet ownership is going to explode over the next two years. It is now a safety issue to put employees on crowded airplanes.
I can easily see GA and private ownership for Biz Travel taking off for this reason as well. (Hello Cirrus).
 
FlyingElvii
Posts: 940
Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:53 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 12:55 am

tphuang wrote:
Man, how could've seen negative oil prices. Insane.

Remember “PEAK OIL!”?
I’members
 
leader1
Posts: 74
Joined: Thu Nov 05, 2015 4:44 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 2:17 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
tphuang wrote:
Man, how could've seen negative oil prices. Insane.

Remember “PEAK OIL!”?
I’members


I used to work as an energy industry analyst on Wall Street back in the day right during the height of the “Peak Oil!” craze. I haven’t heard that slogan in a while and never thought I’d hear it again. Brings back a lot memories...
Leader-1
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 2255
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 6:23 am

From the news thread:
ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Airbus reported selling 6 undelivered Air Asia Neos, 4 x 320Neo and 2 321Neo.

https://wibqam.com/2020/04/20/exclusive ... s-deepens/


With most airlines struggling financially and reluctant to take deliveries, the move could lead to pressure from other customers to find new homes for aircraft they no longer want, triggering a broader sale of undelivered jets, the sources said.

Airbus has said it has 60 aircraft already built that it is unable to deliver, partly for logistical reasons.


Are the Airbus lines running, I have not seen anything either way. Anyway 60 aircraft not out the door is basically a month's production. Are there deliveries happening at all.
The article was actually written, with information and decent structure, compared to all the cut and paste jobs too typical these days.
 
TropicalSky
Posts: 516
Joined: Fri May 05, 2017 1:37 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Tue Apr 21, 2020 4:24 pm

Qatar about to put employees on half pay for 3 months
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... 232DW?il=0
 
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mercure1
Posts: 4850
Joined: Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:13 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:56 pm

France to suspend flights from outside Schengen area. AF would be required to cancel its longhaul services, and also routes to markets like UK.

https://aerolatinnews.com/destacado/fra ... -schengen/
mercure f-wtcc
 
Arion640
Posts: 3077
Joined: Fri Mar 31, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 6:43 pm

Titan flew an A318 To from London to St Helena via Ghana. That’s a long “domestic” flight.

https://simpleflying.com/titan-a318-rel ... m=facebook
 
User avatar
ojjunior
Posts: 972
Joined: Thu Jul 13, 2006 12:31 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:30 pm

What is Garuda Indonesia doing in Brazil?

GA8800 from Amsterdam https://fr24.com/GIA8800/2464294e

First time ever IIRC.
 
NYCAAer
Posts: 787
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2004 10:22 pm

Re: Is AA’s Doug Parker way too optimistic?

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:34 pm

tphuang wrote:
coairman wrote:
I watched The CEO of AA’s video and he seemed rather optimistic compared to DL and UA in terms of the COVID19 effects on the airline industry.....is this just blowing smoke or is he on to something as far being able to recover in a robust way ...


See the link below:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american- ... nd-united/

Aa employees should really be afraid that this is the guy leading them through the largest aviation downturn in decades.


Legacy AA employees were terrified about him running the company into the ground before COVID-19, none of my colleagues are optimistic.
 
behramjee
Posts: 5104
Joined: Sat Aug 02, 2003 4:56 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:50 pm

As per updated filing across major GDS systems today, Air France has extended the cancellation of many medium/long haul destinations to be as follows:

Africa - Dakar, Abidjan, Bamako, Conakry, Nairobi, Doualal Johannesburg, Libreville, Accra, Lagos and Ouagadougou flights are closed for sale till 14Jun

North America - Toronto, San Francisco, Miami and Houston flights are closed for sale till 28Jun

Asia - Bangkok, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taipei, Tokyo Haneda flights are closed for sale till 03Jul
 
User avatar
knope2001
Posts: 3029
Joined: Wed Jun 01, 2005 5:54 am

Re: Coronavirus Aviation Related News & Discussion Thread - April 2020

Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:15 am

Several US airports have released March traffic stats. Here's the year-over-year drop in passenger traffic.

-62.4% SNA
-59.0% SFO
-57.7% SAV
-54.5% SDF
-53.5% BHM
-53.3% TUL
-52.9% MKE
-52.8% MCI
-52.7% BOS
-52.4% CVG
-52.2% DAL
-51.7% HOU
-51.2% LEX
-49.7% OKC
-49.6% SMF
-49.5% TUS
-49.4% OMA
-49.4% ORF
-49.1% IAH
-48.5% SLC
-46.8% ONT
-44.6% GRR

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