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Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 12:47 pm

Welcome to 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020. Please continue to add your comments below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1442115

Link to 737MAX Grounding News and Reference Thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1437865

Just a reminder to keep your posts on topic, personal attacks and flamebait are left out of the discussion, if you are quoting from news sources to add links and your own comments
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:11 pm

From the last thread, via Leeham:

scbriml wrote:
Barring further issues, the FAA Type Inspection Authorization for the MAX is targeted for the second half of May, LNA learned.

This is a critical step in recertifying the airplane.

Also barring more unexpected events in a year filled with them, Boeing should resume production of the 737 MAX in May, LNA confirmed.
...
Barring any upheavals, certification is now targeted for late June or early July. This timeline fits with Boeing’s plan to resume production in May, about two months ahead of certification. Parties hope for concurrent certification between the FAA, Europe’s EASA and Transport Canada.

Ref: https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/30/ponti ... arget-may/

Thanks, Steve, for eliminating distractions by updating us with the facts.

And yes, barring was obviously the word of the day yesterday!

I'm dubious about restarting production in May, it seems too early to me, but I'm not the one making the decisions.

Other than that, it seems MAX will be available as the airlines ramp up in the Coronovirus recovery era.

Unfortunately the airlines will become skilled in maintaining all types on the ground for long periods of time so will have a big effort to restart once services are restarted and demand builds.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:45 pm

Revelation wrote:
I'm dubious about restarting production in May, it seems too early to me, but I'm not the one making the decisions.


It would be interesting to know what their initial rate target would be. Maybe 5 a month? Still there's nodoubt a lot of uncertainly regarding the pandemic - are Boeing's Renton workforce going to be under lockdown then? Hopefully not but we don't really know.

Recovery is going to be a long drawn out affair, much like the T1000 and PW GTF repair cycles have been.

At least with the engines you can remove them from the aircraft, load them into a freighter and fly them to the nearest P&W or RR engine shop. If operators have to ferry their MAXs back to Boeing and are required to get permits to fly them though half a dozen different countries airspace to get there, you're open to a huge amount of bureaucratic delays. It took a couple of weeks for SilkAir to get permission to fly their MAXs to Alice Springs.

With this even now being a year ago, it is interesting, to return to the early posts about the 737 Max and its return to service.
One can see a clear link between posters that are absolute in statements and conclusions and their inability to predict return to service. This makes it quite easy to question credibility and such posters ability to understand complex events and based on those draw relevant conclusions.

Indeed. There's a lot of comments and predictions that aged very, very badly and plenty of people who hindsight has shown to have been completely clueless about the certification. I still remember being flamed harshly for suggesting that back in August or September that the plane wouldn't be in service by November. Also interesting to go back to the initial Ethiopian crash thread and to see who was insistent that the Max absolutely shouldn't be grounded.

And how many of those contracts you mention, will have cancellation clauses that Boeing will have to adhere to when cancellations start pouring in, due to delays and/or missed delivery deadlines?

And would those cancellations come with progress payment and deposit refunds?

I'm sure there are some airlines that would live to cancel and get their money back.


Exactly - at this point I can't imagine that there are many airlines who couldn't cancel their MAX commitments entirely, without penalty. Boeing is the one who has not upheld their end of the deal. The pandemic could easily wipe out two thousand MAX orders from the current order book depending on how slow the recovery is.

No need to shut down. 99.9% of planes out there are not maxes

Well 100% of the ones in the air. :lol:
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:35 pm

Boeing needs to maximase profit - or, in case of MAX - minimize losses. That is pretty obvious.
What is the baseline for MAX? Two extreme options are totally scrapping the program and push to a full production.
I bet none of those is going to realize. Demand will be suppressed for a few years. some customers will go out of business - that is a given. Scrapping 800 frames is a no-go as well.
What are options in between? I would bet on RTS occuring sooner or later - and whats next?
I would bet on a few airlines actually buying up all MAX (FR mosrly) and keeping them as a separate type. Priced somewht above scrap metal, but $10M per frame, if that, may be the best offer.
Boeing should finish up whatever is pre-produced (Spirit may be the one to watch) after restart and closing the shop.

Sounds like the minimum loss for Boeing to me.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:10 pm

zkojq wrote:
Exactly - at this point I can't imagine that there are many airlines who couldn't cancel their MAX commitments entirely, without penalty. Boeing is the one who has not upheld their end of the deal. The pandemic could easily wipe out two thousand MAX orders from the current order book depending on how slow the recovery is.

If they can cancel their orders but in most all cases have not, it says something about their opinion about their long term need for MAX outweighing their short term issues. Many have already signed compensation deals with Boeing which give them credits on future purchases. In the long term, these will be valuable. I think it could be a case like QF A380 orders, they will sit on the books and get slid back or forth based on convenience of the airlines, but I have no way of knowing.

I think in the end we shall see a meaningful percentage of the MAX order backlog built. Both A and B will take a backlog hit since the virus knows no favorites, and some airlines may shift to favor A, but the duopoly effect is still a thing, and I'm somewhat more optimistic about recovery than many others are.
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pune
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:17 pm

I would rather hold my breath then wait for the testing flights to happen, in either way I will lose. I would rather wait for the inspection flights to happen and then if something comes in public domain , know what it is. It seems somewhat of a remote thing at this point in time. We just have to wait and see, that's the watchword.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:36 pm

zkojq wrote:
Revelation wrote:
I'm sure there are some airlines that would live to cancel and get their money back.


Exactly - at this point I can't imagine that there are many airlines who couldn't cancel their MAX commitments entirely, without penalty. Boeing is the one who has not upheld their end of the deal. The pandemic could easily wipe out two thousand MAX orders from the current order book depending on how slow the recovery is.


Virtually every MAX customer has executed at least one new contract since the grounding, which includes compensation and stronger confidentiality clauses. Some have taken cash and / or increased retrospective credits on other delivered models, so still committed (financially obligated) to the MAX.

Billion dollar question. Rather than repeating the Airbus A380 issue of setting new delivery dates, which when not met, required customer re-visits, amended contracts and additional compensation, for reasons of efficiency, does the Boeing RTS contract include escalation clauses, with compensation increasing say every quarter, without needing to have all parties execute new contracts? If yes, at what point does shutdown become less costly than RTS? Hopefully Boeing included an escape clause they can activate unilaterally.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:43 pm

There is still a lot of work, testing and training to be done to ever consider returning the 737MAX into service. At least 3 months of time will be lost due to the Coronavirus shutdown of Boeing as to staff and major revenue cuts. Even then workable solutions may take even longer to create, install and another Coronovirus shutdown with a 2nd round of the virus in Fall could happen, so possible further delays. I don't see the the 737MAX being back in the air until mid-2021 if all works out.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:46 pm

Interesting quote from American Airlines President Robert Isom:

In addition to the retirement of 34 Boeing Co (BA.N) 757s and 17 Boeing 767s announced just two weeks ago, American now plans to also sunset a batch of 76 Boeing 737s it acquired between 1999 and 2001, nine Airbus SE (AIR.PA) A330-300s and 20 Embraer E190s, the people said.

The plans were announced by President Robert Isom in a video Q&A with employees on Sunday, where he said the arrival of new Boeing 737 MAX jets, expected later this year after a prolonged global grounding, could help facilitate the retirement of older jets that would be in need of heavy maintenance.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN21I28W

Pretty much in line with what I posted earlier, MAX is a part of many airline's long term plans, they don't want to spend money putting aging NGs through heavy checks, and want to get the better fuel burn and other tech improvements that comes with LEAP.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:54 pm

ltbewr wrote:
There is still a lot of work, testing and training to be done to ever consider returning the 737MAX into service. At least 3 months of time will be lost due to the Coronavirus shutdown of Boeing as to staff and major revenue cuts. Even then workable solutions may take even longer to create, install and another Coronovirus shutdown with a 2nd round of the virus in Fall could happen, so possible further delays. I don't see the the 737MAX being back in the air until mid-2021 if all works out.

Interesting use of ever, may, could, possible. Let's see how things work out going forward. If Leeham is reporting the insider view of late May test flights and June-July certification there may could possibly be a different way to look at the situation.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:06 pm

AA is still assuming that people are going to want to fly on the MAX if it does RTS.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:17 pm

In my opinion, the federal stimulus package should affect Boeing's suggested timelines, no need to restart production early to maintain the industry, let the package do that.
The 400+ frames sitting need time to be prepared for delivery, staff is required, more so if some of them have to be repainted / reconfigured due to cancellations, it is better to receive RTS from the FAA then schedule production restart, there is no confirmation that RTS will be granted.
All communications we heard are if nothing else goes wrong, so now that Boeing has help maintaining the aviation industry they should rely on it.

Note that with all the rumours we still have nothing about approval of training, how much additional is needed, must Boeing revise the proposed manuals / procedures that were tested, has Boeing provided an update on their view of the testing, we have only seen other opinions.

Even if Boeing restarts production at 5 per month, with over 400 a/c sitting to be put back in flyable condition, the production line is the least of Boeing's concern.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:16 am

744SPX wrote:
AA is still assuming that people are going to want to fly on the MAX if it does RTS.


The coronavirus has put the MAX out of anybody's mind except avgeeks. As somebody else said in some thread, people will be much more concerned about the aircraft being sanitized than they will be about it being a MAX.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:24 am

planecane wrote:
744SPX wrote:
AA is still assuming that people are going to want to fly on the MAX if it does RTS.


The coronavirus has put the MAX out of anybody's mind except avgeeks. As somebody else said in some thread, people will be much more concerned about the aircraft being sanitized than they will be about it being a MAX.


I agree, I honestly think the coronavirus was a blessing for the MAX in just about every single way.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:16 am

737max8 wrote:
planecane wrote:
744SPX wrote:
AA is still assuming that people are going to want to fly on the MAX if it does RTS.


The coronavirus has put the MAX out of anybody's mind except avgeeks. As somebody else said in some thread, people will be much more concerned about the aircraft being sanitized than they will be about it being a MAX.


I agree, I honestly think the coronavirus was a blessing for the MAX in just about every single way.


But couldn't this virus also delay that process? If the people certifying the aircraft are not available, that would just delay the process and prove not so great after all.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:21 am

airboss787 wrote:
737max8 wrote:
planecane wrote:

The coronavirus has put the MAX out of anybody's mind except avgeeks. As somebody else said in some thread, people will be much more concerned about the aircraft being sanitized than they will be about it being a MAX.


I agree, I honestly think the coronavirus was a blessing for the MAX in just about every single way.


But couldn't this virus also delay that process? If the people certifying the aircraft are not available, that would just delay the process and prove not so great after all.


I dont think right now it really matters for Boeing anymore if RTS is in July or September, as due to the current crisis some of the 400 parked aircraft might even get deferred after all this time.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 7:40 am

737max8 wrote:
planecane wrote:
744SPX wrote:
AA is still assuming that people are going to want to fly on the MAX if it does RTS.


The coronavirus has put the MAX out of anybody's mind except avgeeks. As somebody else said in some thread, people will be much more concerned about the aircraft being sanitized than they will be about it being a MAX.


I agree, I honestly think the coronavirus was a blessing for the MAX in just about every single way.


Except for the fact that many of the airlines that ordered the MAX may not even be around by the time it returns to service.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:15 pm

airboss787 wrote:
737max8 wrote:
planecane wrote:

The coronavirus has put the MAX out of anybody's mind except avgeeks. As somebody else said in some thread, people will be much more concerned about the aircraft being sanitized than they will be about it being a MAX.


I agree, I honestly think the coronavirus was a blessing for the MAX in just about every single way.


But couldn't this virus also delay that process? If the people certifying the aircraft are not available, that would just delay the process and prove not so great after all.


Is that confirmed info, that FAA and EASA are on hold with any certifications right now? I know it's a world crisis going on right now, but a lot of government agencies are still trying to work.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:51 pm

kriskarch wrote:
airboss787 wrote:
737max8 wrote:

I agree, I honestly think the coronavirus was a blessing for the MAX in just about every single way.


But couldn't this virus also delay that process? If the people certifying the aircraft are not available, that would just delay the process and prove not so great after all.


Is that confirmed info, that FAA and EASA are on hold with any certifications right now? I know it's a world crisis going on right now, but a lot of government agencies are still trying to work.

I would assume that the FAA and EASA are considered essential. I'm sure they are doing as much work from home as possible.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:49 pm

planecane wrote:
kriskarch wrote:
airboss787 wrote:

But couldn't this virus also delay that process? If the people certifying the aircraft are not available, that would just delay the process and prove not so great after all.


Is that confirmed info, that FAA and EASA are on hold with any certifications right now? I know it's a world crisis going on right now, but a lot of government agencies are still trying to work.

I would assume that the FAA and EASA are considered essential. I'm sure they are doing as much work from home as possible.

Agreed, although it's hard to see how test flight(s) could be accomplished. I suppose if all crew members agreed to total quarantine for 14 days in advance to prove they are not infected, they could then fly as a team with a high degree of safety? And what about Dickson saying he himself will need to fly it before he signs off?
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:52 am

Boeing announcing voluntary buyouts for all 161000 enployees today. No word where they will occur.

Guess RTS on the B737MAX will not happen this year??


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -employees
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:55 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Boeing announcing voluntary buyouts for all 161000 enployees today. No word where they will occur.

Guess RTS on the B737MAX will not happen this year??


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -employees

This artikel talks in specific more about the MAX challenges.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -challenge
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:11 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Boeing announcing voluntary buyouts for all 161000 enployees today. No word where they will occur.

Guess RTS on the B737MAX will not happen this year??


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -employees


They didn't say they would buy out all 161,000 employees. Just that they put out the offer. The goal is to get some percentage to accept the offer and have some level of workforce reduction, not to shut down the company.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:26 am

planecane wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Boeing announcing voluntary buyouts for all 161000 enployees today. No word where they will occur.

Guess RTS on the B737MAX will not happen this year??


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -employees


They didn't say they would buy out all 161,000 employees. Just that they put out the offer. The goal is to get some percentage to accept the offer and have some level of workforce reduction, not to shut down the company.


Of course not! But the offer is being made and any can apply. Many will...many won't. But I certainly did not imply the whole company was shutting down. Peace :white:
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:30 am

Scotron12 wrote:
Boeing announcing voluntary buyouts for all 161000 enployees today. No word where they will occur.

Guess RTS on the B737MAX will not happen this year??


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -employees

I don’t understand link from voluntary buyouts to 737MAX RTS will not happen this year. Not all 161,000 Boeing employees are working on the 737 or its RTS.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:56 am

Ok, but how about the article by Leeham published just two days ago?
https://leehamnews.com/2020/03/30/ponti ... arget-may/

Does is mean there is a rapid change of certification plans?
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:01 pm

Polot wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Boeing announcing voluntary buyouts for all 161000 enployees today. No word where they will occur.

Guess RTS on the B737MAX will not happen this year??


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -employees

I don’t understand link from voluntary buyouts to 737MAX RTS will not happen this year. Not all 161,000 Boeing employees are working on the 737 or its RTS.


No..but all along Calhoun has made the B737MAX the priority on obtaining RTS. Now they announce a voluntary buyout...Im sure they did not decide overnight to do this.

So IMO RTS and production on the 737MAX has now taken a backseat due to the Wuhan pandemic. No biggie to me if happens or not.
 
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:22 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Polot wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Boeing announcing voluntary buyouts for all 161000 enployees today. No word where they will occur.

Guess RTS on the B737MAX will not happen this year??


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -employees

I don’t understand link from voluntary buyouts to 737MAX RTS will not happen this year. Not all 161,000 Boeing employees are working on the 737 or its RTS.


No..but all along Calhoun has made the B737MAX the priority on obtaining RTS. Now they announce a voluntary buyout...Im sure they did not decide overnight to do this.

So IMO RTS and production on the 737MAX has now taken a backseat due to the (Wuhan) Covid-19 pandemic. No biggie to me if happens or not.


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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:33 pm

StTim wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Polot wrote:
I don’t understand link from voluntary buyouts to 737MAX RTS will not happen this year. Not all 161,000 Boeing employees are working on the 737 or its RTS.


No..but all along Calhoun has made the B737MAX the priority on obtaining RTS. Now they announce a voluntary buyout...Im sure they did not decide overnight to do this.

So IMO RTS and production on the 737MAX has now taken a backseat due to the (Wuhan) Covid-19 pandemic. No biggie to me if happens or not.


No strike out I can find but fixed the innate racism for you.


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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:09 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Polot wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Boeing announcing voluntary buyouts for all 161000 enployees today. No word where they will occur.

Guess RTS on the B737MAX will not happen this year??


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -employees

I don’t understand link from voluntary buyouts to 737MAX RTS will not happen this year. Not all 161,000 Boeing employees are working on the 737 or its RTS.


No..but all along Calhoun has made the B737MAX the priority on obtaining RTS. Now they announce a voluntary buyout...Im sure they did not decide overnight to do this.

So IMO RTS and production on the 737MAX has now taken a backseat due to the Wuhan pandemic. No biggie to me if happens or not.

I still am not seeing the connection. Voluntary buyouts does not mean the RTS is no longer still a company priority. It just means Boeing wants to make their work force smaller. The entire workforce is not working on RTS, and people can be assigned from other projects that may no longer be as important or necessary to MAX RTS (or elsewhere, depending on who is taking buyouts and to meet required staffing levels) if needed. A 787 or 747 machinist taking a buyout, for example, has zero effect on 737 RTS. If 787 rate is reduced for several years then Boeing would have a bloated staff.

I don’t doubt there will be delays, but that would be more the result of quarantines and social distancing slowing things down than these buyouts.

The current climate is not going to lessen the desire for RTS approval. Airlines may not want aircraft at the moment but Boeing is going to want to make sure the 737 is fully certified and ready so they can promptly begin deliveries when airlines are ready.
 
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The future of the 737 MAX

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:36 pm

With the COVID-19 completely taking over the news lately it made me wonder what the status is for the MAX’s return to service. In a strange twist of fate airlines don’t really need them right now as capacity is at an all time low worldwide. So what does this hold for the future of the MAX? I would assume a lot of airlines with large orders will be deferring their deliveries for many years. Thoughts?
 
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Re: The future of the 737 MAX

Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:37 pm

Question is - do the airlines need the capacity right now? Or should airlines replace their older aircraft with more efficient ones such as the MAX?
 
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Re: The future of the 737 MAX

Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:08 pm

Will there be more cancellations building on February's cancellations when the March numbers are released over the coming days? I would be surprised of there isn't! more, question is, how many more?

The window is open for airlines to start cancelling without penalty due to the extended grounding and delivery delays at the 1 yr mark.

There are people who will insist that airlines wont cancel, but the stigma attached to this plane now cant be overlooked. Airlines will also be in self preservation mode, could do without this CapEx, and if they get deposits and progress payments refunded, happy days!

I'm not saying everyone will cancel, there will of course be deferrals, but the cancellations will start mounting up too!
 
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Re: The future of the 737 MAX

Thu Apr 02, 2020 8:41 pm

One thing is certain -- across many industries and production sectors -- all equipment, unless it participates in manufacture of critically important goods (food, sanitation, medicine) lost a lot of value in this crisis, already. You own a plant that makes automotive components? -- you just became poorer! You just bought a new tool to make furniture? -- you should have waited, as your orders dried up, and it will take cabinet makers a lot of time to pay their investments back.. And so on.

Passenger airplanes are used as tools to provide a transportation service. That service sector has been badly hit, and is suffering from depressed demand, overcapacity, and uncertain outlook.
Existing planes lost value. But they are already there!

Now, new planes can only be discounted to a degree -- they have a production cost. Producer can try to sell them at a loss, but that can only last for some time.

So, equation for buying a new airplane shifted from:
1) needing extra capacity
2) trying to replace fuel-thirsty planes with more efficient ones, as fuel is expensive
3) try to freshen up the fleet, to cope with more rigorous flying regimen

to:
1) having a lot of spare capacity
2) cheap fuel kills the case for spending a lot of money to slightly reduce the fuel burn
3) frames are plentiful, you can afford to keep a lot of spares -- if one goes tech, you can roll up a substitution frame, no sweat

Add to this a need to conserve capital -- and the case for buying new is not looking good.

This applies to every new airplane in the current crisis.

Now, MAX has a set of extra problems, making its life even less pleasant.
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737max8
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:29 am

Airlines want the more efficient MAX to replace their aging fleet they don't want now....from what I understand MAX RTS is still a huge priority for this year.
The thoughts and opinions expressed in my comments do not represent that of any airline or affiliate.
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Aviator34ID
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:59 am

Unfixed, uncertified MAX = zero chance of recovery of any of the cost of mothballed aircraft or new sales.
Fixed, certified MAX = at least the chance of economic activity in the Company and revenue generation from the project when the pall of this virus is lifted.
 
mig17
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:42 pm

737max8 wrote:
planecane wrote:
744SPX wrote:
AA is still assuming that people are going to want to fly on the MAX if it does RTS.


The coronavirus has put the MAX out of anybody's mind except avgeeks. As somebody else said in some thread, people will be much more concerned about the aircraft being sanitized than they will be about it being a MAX.


I agree, I honestly think the coronavirus was a blessing for the MAX in just about every single way.

With covid-19, half of the narrowbody orderbook is now uncertained to be delivered. That situation will hit all OEM, but because of the previous MAX crisis, Boeing will be struck even more. COVID is a way out for customers who do not need new planes fast anymore. I am not sure MAX FAL will ever restart. Boeing will finish recertification to rts the 400 already delivered ones and to deliver the 400 already built ones to whoever still want them and then Boeing will work on a new narrowbody for late 2020s.
I don't know if that will happen, but I am sure it is an option on the table at Boeing. The covid could simply kill the 737.
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par13del
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:04 pm

So no one thinks it puts the FAA back in the hot seat? To a large degree, the virus and the world response is almost mandating a staggered RTS for the MAX. Is EASA inspectors travel to the USA for RTS certification deemed an essential service, how about other countries around the globe, some who have not shut down but are shut down anyway because the travel links to other countries have been shut down?

If the FAA decides that the virus has not changed their requirement for global simultaneous certification, I hope they put all their requirements to the front and have Boeing deal with those while waiting for countries to reopen to allow their inspectors physical access where required.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:57 pm

par13del wrote:
So no one thinks it puts the FAA back in the hot seat? To a large degree, the virus and the world response is almost mandating a staggered RTS for the MAX. Is EASA inspectors travel to the USA for RTS certification deemed an essential service, how about other countries around the globe, some who have not shut down but are shut down anyway because the travel links to other countries have been shut down?

If the FAA decides that the virus has not changed their requirement for global simultaneous certification, I hope they put all their requirements to the front and have Boeing deal with those while waiting for countries to reopen to allow their inspectors physical access where required.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -challenge tries to address your points.

It does seem a lot can be done just by exchanging documents and having video teleconferences, but in the end actual flights are needed.

It says:

With airlines flying a fraction of their pre-virus schedules and production at many of the planemaker’s own facilities suspended, a small Boeing team has continued testing the latest software changes on the Max. The planes are wiped down and sealed between flights, according to people familiar with the situation who asked not to be identified discussing internal matters.

And:

Boeing pilots still take Max jets bristling with equipment out on regular runs to fine-tune the revamped flight-control software, said one of the people. On the ground, their colleagues are carrying out testing in flight simulators known as e-cabs.

Last week, as U.S. carriers were paring flight schedules and pleading for aid, Boeing pilots were simulating daily airline service by using Max 7, 8 and 9 models to fan out from Seattle to California and North Dakota. Pilots and engineers are careful to keep their distance while in simulators or on board. The toughest challenge is the cockpit: the pilots sit about three feet apart. Typically there is also a test director, perched behind the pilots, who sometimes leans forward to flip switches to begin tests.

Seems everyone involved is taking a risk. All it takes is one of the crew's loved ones to bring something in to the house and it'll spread like wildfire.

The article contains statements from FAA, Transport Canada, etc. Nothing more definitive than "we're all still working" unfortunately.
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LJ
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:06 pm

737max8 wrote:
Airlines want the more efficient MAX to replace their aging fleet they don't want now....from what I understand MAX RTS is still a huge priority for this year.


Not for Avolon anymore.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1444007
 
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scbriml
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:09 pm

737max8 wrote:
Airlines want the more efficient MAX to replace their aging fleet they don't want now....from what I understand MAX RTS is still a huge priority for this year.


It absolutely is the top priority for Boeing. However, with low oil prices and grounded fleets, how desperate airlines are to take new frames remains to be seen. Let’s not forget, Boeing also has to fix 400 delivered frames as well.
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Revelation
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:35 pm

mig17 wrote:
With covid-19, half of the narrowbody orderbook is now uncertained to be delivered. That situation will hit all OEM, but because of the previous MAX crisis, Boeing will be struck even more. COVID is a way out for customers who do not need new planes fast anymore. I am not sure MAX FAL will ever restart. Boeing will finish recertification to rts the 400 already delivered ones and to deliver the 400 already built ones to whoever still want them and then Boeing will work on a new narrowbody for late 2020s.

I don't know if that will happen, but I am sure it is an option on the table at Boeing. The covid could simply kill the 737.

Ok, let's do the math. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_B ... deliveries tells us as of Jan 31 MAX had 4891 orders. If we wipe out half, 2445 still need to be built. How do you do that without restarting the FAL?

Earlier in this thread we have AA's President saying their recovery plan will be to retire ageing NGs and replace them with the MAXes they expect to be available this year. I think you'll see more of this. IMO, a lot of the NGs on the ground will be retired and replaced by MAX once it is available.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
mig17
Posts: 301
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:23 pm

Revelation wrote:
mig17 wrote:
With covid-19, half of the narrowbody orderbook is now uncertained to be delivered. That situation will hit all OEM, but because of the previous MAX crisis, Boeing will be struck even more. COVID is a way out for customers who do not need new planes fast anymore. I am not sure MAX FAL will ever restart. Boeing will finish recertification to rts the 400 already delivered ones and to deliver the 400 already built ones to whoever still want them and then Boeing will work on a new narrowbody for late 2020s.

I don't know if that will happen, but I am sure it is an option on the table at Boeing. The covid could simply kill the 737.

Ok, let's do the math. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_B ... deliveries tells us as of Jan 31 MAX had 4891 orders. If we wipe out half, 2445 still need to be built. How do you do that without restarting the FAL?

Earlier in this thread we have AA's President saying their recovery plan will be to retire ageing NGs and replace them with the MAXes they expect to be available this year. I think you'll see more of this. IMO, a lot of the NGs on the ground will be retired and replaced by MAX once it is available.


It is indeed a maths problem for Boeing. What is the best for them financialy:
Restart the FAL and the supply line to deliver around 2500 MAX in the next 10 years at a "low production rate" of 20 per mounth. Including compensation for the MAX crisis that airline will exercise and of course the risk that another crash attributed to the plane can happen. All that while designing a new narrowbody for next decade.
Or cut their losses on the MAX programm with the line already closed, by just fixing the existing aircraft for customers who still want them and negociate an out with most customers with the unexpected help of the curent covid crisis. And dedicate their ressources and investment in an all new narrowbody programm avaible before the end of this decade.

In both case we are talking of billions more of investment into the MAX "storm". In the first case, to relaunch it and in the second to end it. Which one will cost less? Is the first one return on interest will compensate if it cost more? What effect on long term for Boeing, 777-X, new narrowbody?

I don't have thoses figures but if from now Boeing produces at loss or to thin margin 2500 planes, shuting the programm down has to be concidered.
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:42 pm

mig17 wrote:
It is indeed a maths problem for Boeing. What is the best for them financialy:

Restart the FAL and the supply line to deliver around 2500 MAX in the next 10 years at a "low production rate" of 20 per mounth. Including compensation for the MAX crisis that airline will exercise and of course the risk that another crash attributed to the plane can happen. All that while designing a new narrowbody for next decade.

Or cut their losses on the MAX programm with the line already closed,by just fixing the existing aircraft for customers who still want them and negociate an out with most customers with the unexpected help of the curent covid crisis. And dedicate their ressources and investment in an all new narrowbody programm avaible before the end of this decade.

In both case we are talking of billions more of investment into the MAX "storm". In the first case, to relaunch it and in the second to end it. Which one will cost less? Is the first one return on invest will compensate if it cost more? What effect on long term for Boeing?

I don't have thoses figures but if from now Boeing produces at loss 2500 planes, shuting the programm down has to be concidered.

The Bloomberg link I posted ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -challenge ) estimates they get $25M positive cash flow per MAX, and both they and CFM have made major investments to develop MAX and all the tooling needed to build them in volume and need to try to recoup the investment. The crash related costs have to get paid no matter what. Since they will have nothing else to offer till 2030 or so in the single aisle space, to me at least it is clear that they will restart MAX production.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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planecane
Posts: 1525
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:49 pm

mig17 wrote:
737max8 wrote:
planecane wrote:

The coronavirus has put the MAX out of anybody's mind except avgeeks. As somebody else said in some thread, people will be much more concerned about the aircraft being sanitized than they will be about it being a MAX.


I agree, I honestly think the coronavirus was a blessing for the MAX in just about every single way.

With covid-19, half of the narrowbody orderbook is now uncertained to be delivered. That situation will hit all OEM, but because of the previous MAX crisis, Boeing will be struck even more. COVID is a way out for customers who do not need new planes fast anymore. I am not sure MAX FAL will ever restart. Boeing will finish recertification to rts the 400 already delivered ones and to deliver the 400 already built ones to whoever still want them and then Boeing will work on a new narrowbody for late 2020s.
I don't know if that will happen, but I am sure it is an option on the table at Boeing. The covid could simply kill the 737.


Airlines aren't going to cancel half of narrowbody orders. They will need narrowbodies a lot sooner than widebodies. The next few months will be bad for everything but longer term international travel will be most affected.

The crazy low oil prices will take away urgency as recovery starts. If it was an option AA could make money flying MD-80s at this oil price. However, oil isn't going to stay this low for several years.

Specifically for the MAX, not being at full production this year is perfect given the COVID-19 situation. Airlines get compensated for deferrals that they would have had to negotiate.

COVID or no COVID Boeing is not going to shut down the MAX program with all the sunk costs and not offer a narrowbody for a decade.

In the short term COVID-19 is a bigger issue for the NEO because Airbus is able to deliver them and produce them at a time when airlines don't want to take them. Obviously, the NEO program is in a better place overall I'm just talking specifically in the short term.
 
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PW100
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:57 pm

scbriml wrote:
737max8 wrote:
Airlines want the more efficient MAX to replace their aging fleet they don't want now....from what I understand MAX RTS is still a huge priority for this year.


It absolutely is the top priority for Boeing. However, with low oil prices and grounded fleets, how desperate airlines are to take new frames remains to be seen. Let’s not forget, Boeing also has to fix 400 delivered frames as well.


As long as RtS is not approved, Boeing will be the party in breach of contract (whether airlines can/will accept delivery or not). And that activates penalty clauses.

In fact, such penalty payments are most welcome to airlines at the time when their regular income has more or less evaporated . . .
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JoergAtADN
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:14 pm

737max8 wrote:
Airlines want the more efficient MAX to replace their aging fleet they don't want now....from what I understand MAX RTS is still a huge priority for this year.


But nowadays many airlines need cash to survive - and if they cancel a 737MAX order, where the delivery is delayed more than 12months, they can request the deposits back, which they payed to Boeing.

Same applies for the first delivery slots of the 777X, while they would loose their deposits if they cancel orders of other types like 787, 747 or any Airbus or Embraer type.
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:01 pm

JoergAtADN wrote:
737max8 wrote:
Airlines want the more efficient MAX to replace their aging fleet they don't want now....from what I understand MAX RTS is still a huge priority for this year.


But nowadays many airlines need cash to survive - and if they cancel a 737MAX order, where the delivery is delayed more than 12months, they can request the deposits back, which they payed to Boeing.

Same applies for the first delivery slots of the 777X, while they would loose their deposits if they cancel orders of other types like 787, 747 or any Airbus or Embraer type.

The vast majority, if not all remaining MAX customers, have executed at least one new contract incorporating compensation. Cancelling and getting back cash any time soon, won't be an option (many airlines use pre-delivery finance, so the financiers are the ones in line to receive deposit refunds).

Compensation in the aviation industry is either in the form of up front discounts, retrospective credits, or both. Both OEM's learned from the A380 and 787 delays, to focus on retrospective credits, which defer negative cash flows for years, and 'cloak' the ultimate values.

The 'carrot' for customers to stay aboard the MAX bandwagon, is the value of the retrospective credits, well North of 50% if a customer takes all of their original order. One NEO could be worth 3x MAX, a very attractive proposition for MAX customers.

But this overhang will hit used residuals of all 737's and A320's, including all existing lease contracts (lower EOL values), and feed through to new 737 and A320NEO sales, and even impact smaller WB's like the 788 and A330NEO (though they may gain from less demand for larger WB's).

Ultimately, it all comes down to dotting and crossing (i's and t's). How good has the inhouse and external legal teams been, minimising escape routes where customers can flee, and damage limitation, in respect to how much can they extract.

Has MAX focus been at the expense of the 777X? At most, there can only be three customers, each with one tranche, that could even remotely have gone unconditional. But those are likely to be up for re-negotiation due to late delivery, or slipped back to conditional. Lean, bleak times for all in the aviation industry (except lawyers, forensic accounts and a few other specialists).
 
smartplane
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:08 pm

Revelation wrote:
The Bloomberg link I posted ( https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -challenge ) estimates they get $25M positive cash flow per MAX, and both they and CFM have made major investments to develop MAX and all the tooling needed to build them in volume and need to try to recoup the investment. The crash related costs have to get paid no matter what. Since they will have nothing else to offer till 2030 or so in the single aisle space, to me at least it is clear that they will restart MAX production.

USD25m positive cash flow on delivery yes, but over time, after applying retrospective credits accruing across the entire order, boosted for delays and compensation?
 
ShamrockBoi330
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Re: Boeing 737MAX Grounding, General Discussion Thread, April 2020

Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:45 pm

smartplane wrote:
JoergAtADN wrote:
737max8 wrote:
Airlines want the more efficient MAX to replace their aging fleet they don't want now....from what I understand MAX RTS is still a huge priority for this year.


But nowadays many airlines need cash to survive - and if they cancel a 737MAX order, where the delivery is delayed more than 12months, they can request the deposits back, which they payed to Boeing.

Same applies for the first delivery slots of the 777X, while they would loose their deposits if they cancel orders of other types like 787, 747 or any Airbus or Embraer type.

The vast majority, if not all remaining MAX customers, have executed at least one new contract incorporating compensation. Cancelling and getting back cash any time soon, won't be an option (many airlines use pre-delivery finance, so the financiers are the ones in line to receive deposit refunds).

Compensation in the aviation industry is either in the form of up front discounts, retrospective credits, or both. Both OEM's learned from the A380 and 787 delays, to focus on retrospective credits, which defer negative cash flows for years, and 'cloak' the ultimate values.

The 'carrot' for customers to stay aboard the MAX bandwagon, is the value of the retrospective credits, well North of 50% if a customer takes all of their original order. One NEO could be worth 3x MAX, a very attractive proposition for MAX customers.

But this overhang will hit used residuals of all 737's and A320's, including all existing lease contracts (lower EOL values), and feed through to new 737 and A320NEO sales, and even impact smaller WB's like the 788 and A330NEO (though they may gain from less demand for larger WB's).

Ultimately, it all comes down to dotting and crossing (i's and t's). How good has the inhouse and external legal teams been, minimising escape routes where customers can flee, and damage limitation, in respect to how much can they extract.

Has MAX focus been at the expense of the 777X? At most, there can only be three customers, each with one tranche, that could even remotely have gone unconditional. But those are likely to be up for re-negotiation due to late delivery, or slipped back to conditional. Lean, bleak times for all in the aviation industry (except lawyers, forensic accounts and a few other specialists).


Air Canada - Cancelled all MAX 9s on order, one would assume AC is also due compensation on grounded and remaining undelivered MAX 8s.

I get what you're saying, and the devil is always in the detail, detail we will never know, but do you not think there will be more similar to this given current climate and issues with the MAX?
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